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  • Stat of the Week: Zack Greinke’s Defense

    Stat of the Week: Zack Greinke’s Defense

    Let’s hear it for pitcher defense!

    This is a topic we don’t get to touch on much but it’s pertinent this week with Zack Greinke re-signing with the Royals.

    Why? Because this is the Defensive Runs Saved leaderboard for pitchers. SIS began tracking the stat in 2003.

    Pitcher Defensive Runs Saved
    Zack Greinke 87
    Mark Buehrle 87
    Jake Westbrook 63
    R.A. Dickey 60
    Dallas Keuchel 54

    Greinke is tied for the lead with Mark Buehrle, though there’s an asterisk there. Though Greinke’s career began in 2004 and is thus entirely encapsulated by Runs Saved, Buehrle’s career began in 2000 and thus is not entirely captured by our data.

    Nonetheless, we can agree that Greinke is very, very good. He’s still a terrific athlete even at age 39 even if he hasn’t quite kept pace with his early-career numbers. His 9 Runs Saved over the last three seasons rank tied for 6th among pitchers. Consistency is a differentiator both for Greinke and Buehrle. Each has nine seasons with at least 5 Runs Saved, most of any pitcher.

    Greinke has excellent reflexes

    He’s quick off the mound

    He can keep runners close or pick them off.

    And his throws to any base are right on target.

    There isn’t much bunting done these days but you probably don’t want to bunt on Greinke. His 14 Bunt Runs Saved rank 2nd among all players, trailing only Adrián Beltré’s 15.

    Here’s one good Greinke bunt play, as called by Vin Scully.

    Greinke generally plays the position mistake-free. He hasn’t been charged with an error since getting in Charlie Blackmon’s way and getting called for interference as Blackmon was rounding first base and trying to go to second base in a game in July 2019.

    Our Video Scouts have credited him with only one Defensive Misplay the last three seasons, picking up and then rushing a throw on a Shohei Ohtani roller that appeared to be heading foul in April 2021.

    By our accounting, the last instance we have of Greinke not cleanly fielding a ball that cost his team a potential out was in August 2019 on a play where bat and ball came at him at the same time, thus preventing a possible double play (they still got one out).

    There are no active pitchers even close to Greinke’s accrued Runs Saved. As you can see in the chart, Dallas Keuchel is 33 runs behind, but given that he had a 9.20 ERA last season, there’s no guarantee he’ll pitch again in the majors. The next-closest active pitchers are Clayton Kershaw (34), Johnny Cueto (33), and Justin Verlander (31).

    Someone asked me the other day if Greinke was a Hall of Famer. I think the answer is similar for him as it is for Scott Rolen. It’s a close call looking at his basic career stats. But there are some other things to consider, like standard-setting defense, that could help in pushing him over the top.

  • CF Defense In The News: The Current King & The Aspirant

    CF Defense In The News: The Current King & The Aspirant

    Elite center field defense was in the news this week. One player who plays it is moving on to another team. Another player expressed his desire to be an elite defender despite never having played the position before as a pro.

    Michael A. Taylor is the elite center fielder. Taylor was just traded by the Royals to the Twins for two minor leaguers.

    Taylor has led center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved in each of the last two seasons. His 38 Runs Saved since 2021 lead the position and there’s a huge gap between him and No. 2 Myles Straw. Taylor won both a Fielding Bible Award and a Gold Glove in 2021 and narrowly missed winning the former again last season.

    Taylor rates particularly well at chasing down fly balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark and using his throwing arm to deter baserunner advancement.

    This gives the Twins the luxury of two elite defensive center fielders in Taylor and Byron Buxton, who will now likely get a fair amount of playing time as a DH. The Twins should be strong up the middle this season with Carlos Correa returning at shortstop, newcomer Christian Vázquez at catcher and either Buxton or Taylor playing center fielder.

    The elite center field aspirant is Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the Marlins. After showing considerable potential playing second base and shortstop the last three seasons with the Marlins, Chisholm is embracing the challenge of switching positions.

    Simply put: It’s going to be difficult, even for an elite athlete.

    In the 20-season history of Defensive Runs Saved, there are eight examples of players who transitioned from second base or shortstop to center field the next season within the following criteria:

    A)Played no more than 250 career innings in center field prior to moving there.

    B)Played at least 300 innings at either middle infield position one year and then played at least 300 innings in center the next.

    Player Team
    Bill Hall 2007 Brewers
    Dustin Ackley 2013 Mariners
    Alexi Amarista 2013 Padres
    Chris Owings 2016 Diamondbacks
    Ian Desmond 2016 Rockies
    Dee Strange-Gordon 2018 Mariners
    Ketel Marte 2019 Diamondbacks
    Scott Kingery 2019 Phillies

    You may remember some of these. Hall, Marte, Ackley and Strange-Gordon had played a good amount of middle infield and done well, with Strange-Gordon winning a Gold Glove.

    Hall and Marte fared okay initially. They were the only players in the eight-player sample to have a positive Runs Saved in the season in which they made the move. But these are not long-term success stories.

    Hall saved 2 runs in center field in 2007 but moved to third base the next year and played only 49 innings in center field the rest of his career.

    Marte saved 4 runs there in 2019, moved back to second base for 2020, then his return to center field in 2021 went poorly (-15 Runs Saved). In 2022, he returned to second base.

    It didn’t go well for Ackley, Desmond or Gordon, with each playing center at a rate of -10 Runs Saved per 1,000 innings or worse in their first season at the new spot. Same for Alexi Amarista of the 2013 Padres.

    Chris Owings and Scott Kingery were the other two players in our grouping. Owings got a look in center field with the Diamondbacks in 2016 and had -1 Runs Saved in just over 400 innings. When managers have put Owings in the outfield since then, it’s usually been right field.

    Kingery, who had played center field in college, got close to 500 innings in center field in 2019 and tallied 0 Runs Saved. He’s played 69 innings there since.

    Chisholm has fully embraced the move, telling new manager Skip Schumaker he wants to win a Gold Glove. He’s been watching video of Ken Griffey Jr. play center field because he says he wants to learn from the best.

    He’d do well to watch some video of Taylor too.

  • Stat of the Week: 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

    Stat of the Week: 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

    The neverending debate that is Baseball Hall of Fame worthiness can move ahead to 2024 after the elections of Scott Rolen and Fred McGriff to 2023’s Hall class.

    Next year’s BBWAA ballot includes not just prominent holdovers like Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, and Carlos Beltran, but also three newcomers who surpass the standard set by Bill James’ Hall of Fame Value (HOF-V) stat.

    HOF-V sums a player’s Win Shares and four times his Baseball-Reference WAR (For a more in-depth analysis of HOF-V, check out this article from The Bill James Handbook 2018). The target HOF-V to signify Hall of Fame worthiness is 500.

    The 2024 ballot is not fully set yet, but these will be the leading newcomers by HOF-V:

    Player HOF-V
    Adrián Beltré 747.0
    Joe Mauer 590.4
    Chase Utley 549.0
    David Wright 463.8
    Adrián González 460.0
    Matt Holliday 444.0

    Adrián Beltré is a clearcut Hall of Fame selection. He totaled 3,166 hits and 477 home runs in a 21-year career. He ranks in the top 20 in hits, doubles, total bases, and games played. His 1,781 Runs Created rank 44th all time and his 93.5 bWAR ranks 40th.

    Beltré’s 200 Defensive Runs Saved are tied with Andrelton Simmons for the most in the 20-year history of the stat. He won three Fielding Bible Awards and five Gold Glove Awards.

    Joe Mauer packed a lot into a 15-year MLB career with the Twins, playing catcher early in his career and first base in his latter seasons. He won the AL batting title three times, won the AL MVP in 2009, and finished in the top eight of the MVP voting three other times. He was a six-time All-Star who won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves.

    Mauer retired at age 35 and thus didn’t play long enough to record the cumulative totals of some other candidates, but his candidacy is viewed favorably by this system. His HOF-V is actually six points higher than Rolen’s and nearly 100 points higher than another contemporary, Buster Posey (490.7).

    Chase Utley’s HOF-V is a near match for McGriff’s 552.4. Utley totaled 64.5 bWAR (97th among position players) in a 16-year career as a second baseman for the Phillies and Dodgers. He was a six-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger. He was also an impactful postseason player, whose five home runs in 2009 are tied for the most in one World Series.

    Utley had a six-year peak from 2005 to 2010 in which he ranked second to Albert Pujols in Win Shares. Utley’s 123 career Runs Saved at second base rank second to Mark Ellis (130) in the 20-year history of the stat. He won a Fielding Bible Award in 2010.

    We expect fellow ballot newcomers David Wright, Adrián González, and Matt Holliday to get some degree of sentimental support (and probably Bartolo Colon too). But HOF-V does not consider such feelings. It stamps Beltré, Mauer, and Utley as Hall-of-Fame worthy and is a tool that can be used (perhaps alongside Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system) to support those candidacies. We look forward to the debate.

  • The Best Outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved Per Inning

    The Best Outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved Per Inning

    Phillies general manager Sam Fuld was a guest on our company’s baseball podcast this week, which prompted a fun lookup. I wanted to see where he ranked among left fielders in Defensive Runs Saved on a per-inning basis.

    Turns out that if we set the minimum at 1,500 innings, which is about how many he played there for his career, that he ranks No. 1.

    There’s a caveat here in that from 2003 to 2020, we incorporated positioning into the range component of a player’s Defensive Runs Saved. The last three years, that value is separate from the player’s range and credited to the team.

    Nonetheless, we salute Fuld for his defensive excellence. That sent me on a hunt for outfielders who racked up a considerable total of Runs Saved within a relatively small number of innings.

    In center field, Kevin Kiermaier, who has the most Runs Saved of anyone at the position since the stat was first tracked in 2003, is No. 1 on a per-inning basis, even with the qualifier dropped to 1,500 innings. Kiermaier currently stands at 20 Runs Saved per 1,000 innings.

    The next-highest player on that list is one you might have forgotten. Craig Gentry never reached 300 plate appearances in a 10-year career with four teams, most notably the Rangers. But in just under 2,000 innings in center field, Gentry totaled 36 Runs Saved.

    Honorable mention to Alfredo Amezaga, who played ~1,700 innings and netted 23 Runs Saved, Nook Logan (21 Runs Saved in ~2,200 innings) and Keon Broxton (19 in ~2,100 innings).

    It feels like Joey Gallo has played a lot more than 1,663 career innings in right field but actually he hasn’t, at least not yet. On a per-inning basis using our qualifier of 1,500 innings, there’s been nobody better. He’s saved 31 Runs with his right field defense, 18.6 per 1,000 innings.

    More within the spirit of what we’re looking for are current Giants manager Gabe Kapler (20 Runs Saved, 10.4 per 1,000) and Ryan Church (19, 10.3 per 1,000).

    Lowering the qualifier further, particularly in right field, adds a couple of current names to the list. Brett Phillips is No. 1 among them. Phillips will take his 23 career Runs Saved in 759 innings in right field to the Angels this season (we’ve written about Phillips’ per-inning prowess before).

    To bring this full circle (or in this case, Fuld circle), another name caught our eye when scouring the right field list. Fuld was drafted out of Stanford in the 10th round by the Cubs in 2004. Two picks later, the Marlins took an infielder from Middle Tennessee State, Brett Carroll.

    Carroll played 180 games from 2007 to 2012, all but 7 of them for the Marlins. In 502 innings in right field, Carroll saved 18 runs, a rate of nearly 36 per 1,000 innings (the best rate of anyone to play at least 500 innings there). Check out some of his highlights.

     

     

    Carroll currently runs a baseball academy in his native Tennessee. Memo to his players, you might want to listen extra closely to what he says when he talks about playing defense.

  • Stat of the Week: How Trea Turner Impacts The Phillies Defense

    Stat of the Week: How Trea Turner Impacts The Phillies Defense

    By MARK SIMON

    A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about the difference that Cody Bellinger should make for the Cubs, whose  center fielders ranked worst in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved last season.

    What Bellinger represents to the Cubs in center field is what Trea Turner represents to the Phillies at shortstop.

    Didi Gregorius, Bryson Stott, Johan Camargo, and three other players combined for -13 Runs Saved at shortstop for the Phillies in 2022. Only three teams played worse defense at the position than that – the Blue Jays (-15 Runs Saved), the Royals (-18), and the Nationals (-34).

    There are a lot of areas in which Turner excels. Defense isn’t necessarily one of them, but he’s still a huge upgrade at the position. Similar to Bellinger in center field, Turner has been exactly an average shortstop defensively the last two seasons (a little more than 250 games). He’s netted 0 Runs Saved in roughly 2,150 innings there. Zero is a significant upgrade from -13.

    The specific impact will most likely come on balls hit to Turner’s right, where again he was an average defender and the Phillies’ shortstops were less than stellar.

    Turner turned 62% of opportunities on balls hit to his right into outs, exactly the rate he was expected to get based on historical out probabilities.

    The Phillies turned only 51% of balls hit to the right of their shortstops into outs, against an expected out rate of 57%. They made 14 plays fewer than expected on those balls (think of that as similar to a -14 in Statcast’s Outs Above Average specific to that direction).

    Keep the following in mind with the new rules banning the use of full infield shifts: Turner has saved 5 runs with his play-making in non-shift situations the last two seasons. Gregorius, Stott, and Camargo combined for -9 Runs Saved in non-shifts in 2022.

    Turner’s acquisition also puts Stott at second base, where he saved 1 run in 47 games last season. Other Phillies’ second basemen combined for -2 Runs Saved in 2022. The Phillies also made moves related to their up-the-middle defense last season, trading with the Cardinals for infielder Edmundo Sosa and the Angels for outfielder Brandon Marsh. They also return a two-time Gold Glove catcher, J.T. Realmuto, and a Fielding Bible Award winner among a pretty good group of fielding pitchers in Ranger Suárez.

    Sosa can fill in at second base, shortstop, and third base and has shown particular aplomb at shortstop (13 career Runs Saved in 800 innings). The trade of Matt Vierling to the Tigers makes Marsh a full-time center fielder rather than a platoon player. Marsh rates better than Vierling defensively in center field but is still a little below average there for his career (-4 Runs Saved in approximately 1,000 innings).

    The Phillies still have a fair number of trouble spots within their defense. At third base, Alec Bohm ranked last in MLB with -17 Runs Saved last season. In the outfield Kyle Schwarber ranked next-to-last (-14) among left fielders, and right field, where Nick Castellanos ranked tied for last (-8). Those are regular season numbers, of course, as you’ll remember Castellanos excelled defensively in the playoffs.

    But at the very least the Phillies should be better in the middle infield than they were in 2022. And that should improve their chances of hanging with the Braves and Mets in the NL East.

    For more on the Phillies, check out our interview with their general manager Sam Fuld on The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast.

  • The Cubs Badly Needed a Defensive Upgrade in CF

    The Cubs Badly Needed a Defensive Upgrade in CF

    The big move for the Cubs this winter was signing free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson to a seven-year deal. But signing Cody Bellinger to a one-year contract to play center field might be the most impactful defensive move in MLB this offseason.

    The Cubs played eight different players in center field last year, with 98% of the innings played by five players – Christopher Morel, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velázquez, Jason Heyward, and Michael Hermosillo.

    In all, those eight combined for -19 Defensive Runs Saved, which was the worst for any center field group in MLB last season. It was the fourth straight season in which the Cubs had a negative Defensive Runs Saved in center field.

    Each of the five primary center fielders in 2022 had a negative Runs Saved, with Velasquez (-6 in 198 innings) and Morel (-5 in 458 innings) as the two with the worst numbers.

    Cubs center fielders failed to make 37 plays on which their out probability was at least 50%. There was this and this and this and this. There were a combination of late breaks, tough looks at the Wrigley Field sun, hesistancy, failed dives, and balls that were just missed.

    Bellinger was brought in to stabilize the position. He saved 15 runs in a little more than 1,000 innings with his center field defense from 2017 to 2020. The last two seasons, he’s slipped. He’s at -1 Runs Saved in just under 1,900 innings in that time.

    But even so, that’s a huge upgrade from what the Cubs had last season.

    The chart below compares Bellinger’s performance in center field to that of the Cubs in 2022.

    The out rates are defined as the number of times a play was successfully made by Bellinger or the Cubs against a batted ball on which the out probability was greater than 0% (the number of opportunities are in parentheses). Bellinger, was better than Cubs center fielders at making plays in all areas of the field.

    Think of Plays Saved here as similar to Statcast’s Outs Above Average (we’ve tracked Plays Saved back to 2003).  Bellinger made just about as many plays as he was expected to make in center field last season. Cubs center fielders made 18 fewer than expected.

    Bellinger Out Rate Cubs Out Rate
    Shallow 66% (135) 60% (139)
    Medium 89% (153) 80% (196)
    Deep 78% (124) 74% (159)

    However, one thing to keep in mind is that Bellinger could play up to 81 games a year at Dodger Stadium, which plays much differently than Wrigley Field, where the combination of wind and recently installed video boards make playing the outfield a huge challenge. Bellinger has played only six career games in center field in Wrigley (we didn’t notice anything particularly eventful for him in them other than the wind knocking down a few balls that he caught).

    We’ll be learning as he does whether he can handle the position at a high level. The challenges, particularly the wind, will be plenty.

    “It’s just so impactful at Wrigley,” Cubs left fielder Ian Happ said of the wind on The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast last year. “When we come to the park every day, one of the first things we do is look at which way the flags are blowing. Because Wrigley Field is such an old stadium, it’s so low as far as where that second deck (of stands) is. And it is so open to the elements because the outfield bleachers are so low.

    “You think of Yankee Stadium as a massive cathedral where no wind can possibly get in. At Wrigley Field, it’s open air and the wind has an impact on the flight of the baseballs like nowhere else because it whips right off the lake. We’re looking at balls hit 108 MPH at 25 degrees that aren’t going out of the park one day, then balls hit at 92 and 35 that might go out of the park on another day. It’s an interesting field to play it because it can play so totally different every day.”

    The Cubs have placed an emphasis on up-the-middle defense this offseason, adding Swanson, Bellinger, and catcher Tucker Barnhart, and moving standout defender Nico Hoerner from shortstop to second base. If Bellinger can manage Wrigley’s elements and just be what he was defensively there in Los Angeles, he could notably impact the team’s win total for 2023.

  • Stat of the Week: The Remaking of the Blue Jays Outfield

    Stat of the Week: The Remaking of the Blue Jays Outfield

    The Blue Jays ranked eighth in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved last season with 44 and they’ve spent a good portion of their offseason trying to improve upon that. A closer look at the components of Defensive Runs Saved might explain why.

    In 2022, the Blue Jays ranked 3rd in Runs Saved from infield and outfield positioning, but 14th in the components related to defensive skill (range, throwing, defensing bunts, turning double plays, etc.).

    That was particularly evident in the outfield, where the Blue Jays led all teams in the positioning component of Runs Saved but ranked 21st in Runs Saved from the skills of their players.

    So the Blue Jays changed the look of their outfield with the trades of Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the non-tendering of Raimel Tapia, the free agent signing of Kevin Kiermaier, and the acquisition of Daulton Varsho in the deal that sent Gurriel to the Diamondbacks.

    Kiermaier has had at least 10 Runs Saved in center field in seven of the last eight years for the Rays, with 2022 being the exception (2 Runs Saved in 60 games). The Blue Jays are counting on his track record to provide needed value. He’s the career leader in Runs Saved for a center fielder since the stat was first tracked in 2003.

    Varsho, who played right field, center field, and was also a fill-in catcher for the Diamondbacks, shouldn’t have to worry about the latter anymore. He’ll likely slot in as their regular left fielder with Kiermaier playing center field and George Springer playing right field.

    Varsho excelled in right field in a small sample last year and also looked good in center, combining for 19 Runs Saved between the two spots (tied for 2nd among outfielders). At age 26, he’s also easily the youngest of their three primary outfielders, which at least allows for the possibility that he could slide to either spot if needed (Kiermaier turns 33 in April, the same age as Springer, who turns 34 in September).

    There’s a secondary component to these deals. By trading catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks, the Blue Jays also committed to continuing the catching tandem of Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen. They combined for 14 Runs Saved at the position last season. Blue Jays catchers ranked second to the Yankees in Defensive Runs Saved, with Jansen and Kirk ranking among MLB’s top pitch blockers.

    If …

    • Kiermaier and third baseman Matt Chapman play anywhere near how they did in their primes,
    • Springer responds well to the move back to right field,
    • Varsho and Gold Glove-winning first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. pick up where they left off last season,
    • and second baseman Whit Merrifield and shortstop Bo Bichette return to 2021 form (16 combined Runs Saved at those spots compared to -21 in 2022), with utility man Santiago Espinal filling in as needed

    … then the Blue Jays could be an excellent defensive team in 2023. They might even be one of the best in MLB.

  • Stat of the Week: The 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

    Stat of the Week: The 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

    This is the time of year when we typically write about the Hall of Fame-worthiness of players on this year’s ballot.

    We’ve previously written about almost all of the prominent candidates and we can sum it up thusly:

    By the Bill James-created Hall of Fame Value stat (HOF-V)*, which sums a player’s Win Shares and four times his Baseball-Reference WAR, nine players on this year’s ballot have cleared the target score, which is a HOF-V of 500.

    They are Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramírez, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Beltrán, Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Jeff Kent, and Andruw Jones.

    * For a more in-depth analysis of HOF-V, check out this article from The Bill James Handbook 2018.

    The first three on that list have PED-related issues that complicate their candidacies. Beltrán, in his first year on the ballot, has the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal on his ledger. All four would be clearcut Hall of Fame electees if not for their problematic pasts.

    From the other five, let’s again spotlight Abreu and Helton. Abreu has the highest HOF-V among the quintet. Helton seems to be gaining momentum based on Ryan Thibodaux’s compilation of votes thus far.

    Abreu hit .291 with an .870 OPS over an 18-year career in which he totaled 2,470 hits, 400 stolen bases, and 288 home runs. Despite lacking prodigious power, Abreu was a highly productive player. He ranks in the Top 25 all-time in both doubles and walks. He averaged nearly 6 WAR per season from 1998 to 2004.

    Abreu, with an HOF-V of 596.7, is exactly the kind of player that HOF-V is meant to showcase. But he’s far from the Hall of Fame. He’s held steady the last two years, receiving just under 9% of the vote, with 75% needed for election.

    Helton’s candidacy may have been boosted by the election of Larry Walker, his former Rockies teammate. Helton totaled 2,519 hits and 369 home runs in his 17 MLB seasons. Similar to Abreu, he ranks 20th all-time in doubles and 38th in walks. He also won three Gold Glove Awards. Of the top 10 players who Helton rates most similar to by Bill James’ Similarity Scores, seven are in the Hall of Fame, including newly-elected Fred McGriff.

    The knock on Helton is that he played half his games in Coors Field. But Helton was a highly-respectable player outside the altitude, with a career road slash line of .287/.386/.469.

    Helton netted 16.5% of the BBWAA vote on his first Hall of Fame ballot in 2019, but that total has steadily climbed to 52% in 2022. He still has some people to convince but the numbers bode well for him to eventually find his way to Cooperstown. As Jayson Stark of The Athletic noted, every position player to reach 50% of the vote within his first four Hall of Fame ballots has eventually been elected.

    One last note for those looking for an evaluation of Billy Wagner. Both WAR and Win Shares don’t typically scale in a way such that relief pitchers reach a 500 HOF-V. Even Mariano Rivera came up a little short (498.2). Wagner’s HOF-V of 292.8 is better than two of the eight relievers in the Hall of Fame – Rollie Fingers (290.4) and Bruce Sutter (264.0) – and comparable to Trevor Hoffman (299.6). If you wanted to say Wagner was deserving of election, you’d have a reasonable case.

    Highest Hall Of Fame Value (HOF-V)

    Candidates on 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

    Player HOF-V
    Alex Rodriguez 961.1
    Manny Ramírez 685.2
    Gary Sheffield 672.2
    Carlos Beltrán 649.4
    Bobby Abreu 596.7
    Scott Rolen 584.4
    Todd Helton 565.0
    Jeff Kent 560.8
    Andruw Jones 526.8
    Jimmy Rollins 493.4
    Torii Hunter 479.6
    Andy Pettitte 464.9
    Omar Vizquel 464.3
    Mark Buehrle 456.2
  • My Favorite 2022 Stat: Ke’Bryan Hayes Makes All The Plays

    My Favorite 2022 Stat: Ke’Bryan Hayes Makes All The Plays

    A fair number of people were mad that Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes lost out to Nolan Arenado for the Fielding Bible Award and a Gold Glove.

    I understood their annoyance and I’m sure I’ll hear from them again in the Twitter comments about this article. Hayes had the best defensive numbers among all third basemen, regardless of which advanced stat you used, and led all players in Defensive Runs Saved. I voted for him to win a Fielding Bible Award. He didn’t win.

    I’m not here to question our Fielding Bible voters because I think they do an excellent job. Arenado is a great defensive third baseman too. I disagree with the overall choice but I amicably accept the result. Nor am I here to relitigate the moment in which Hayes was caught eating sunflower seeds mid-play in a late-season game against the Mets (taking an educated guess that others have  similar transgressions and that Hayes won’t do it again).

    But I want to honor the defensive stat that impressed me the most in a given season. And maybe Hayes and his legion of fans can take solace that I’m picking something specific to him.

    During the 2022 season, 122 balls were hit to Hayes’ right on which he had a >0 chance of recording an out (regardless of where he was playing). He got an out on 91 of those opportunities.

    If we add up the out probabilities on all 122 of those balls, an average third baseman would have been expected to get at least one out on 76 of those balls.

    Hayes was at 91, the average third baseman was 76. He was 15 plays better than MLB average, a rate of 12 plays better per 100 opportunities.

    That isn’t supposed to happen.

    Arenado was 4 plays better than average on balls hit to his right. He was 15 plays better than average on balls hit to his left, which is very good but isn’t as impressive because the number of balls you handle is higher. And you’re much more likely to be taking away potential singles on balls to your left than balls to your right.

    Matt Chapman, long the standard setter at the position, was exactly average on balls hit to his right. The only comparable player to Hayes was Jace Peterson, who was 7 plays better than average (37 of 50) and 14 better per 100 plays, but there’s a huge sample-size differential there (50 plays for Peterson, 122 for Hayes).

    In the 10 years of the PART system driving Defensive Runs Saved, Hayes being +15 on balls hit to his right there is the best rating there has been at third base. Arenado and Manny Machado each got to +11 once (Machado in 2013, Arenado in 2015) but that’s as close as anyone has come. Hayes was +1 and +2 in his two other seasons.

    A professional’s take

    I asked our vice-president of baseball, Bobby Scales, who played pro baseball for 14 seasons and also worked with Hayes (and with those coaching him) in three years as the Pirates’ field coordinator about what he noticed.

    Scales made two points. The first was related to how he’s positioned (which was backed up by data) and how Hayes being so good to his right allows him to play further off the line than others.

    “If you are that good going right at any position, you have supreme confidence in your backhand, your throwing arm, and your accuracy,” he said.  “The analyst that helps do positioning for the team has supreme confidence in his backhand and throwing arm too. Because he is so good going that way, they probably put him in a position where more of the pie (i.e. the field) is covered up.”

    The other point was about the trait that allows Hayes to make difficult plays.

    “What Key never, ever does is panic,” Scales said. “For a young player to have a heartbeat that slow is a God-given gift. It can take players quite a long time to understand how to ‘be quick but not hurry.’ His arm strength is average but his accuracy is a 70 on the 20-80 scale.”

    Let’s go to the videotape

    Let’s take a look at some plays, all but one of which were basically 50-50 plays or harder (in other words, all but one had an out probability of 52% or lower).

    One thing to note is that Hayes makes the hard plays look not so hard. Keep in mind that if you’re watching a game on television, particularly on hard-hit balls, you’re not seeing everything that went into the play.

    Here are two examples of plays that Hayes made that ranked in his Top 20 for range value in which he didn’t slide, dive or jump but still impressed the TV broadcast crew.

    Sometimes Hayes leaves his feet and there’s a pretty good reason for doing so.

    Sometimes the glove is quicker than the eye in handling a hard-hit hop.

     And sometimes, all that’s left to do is say is “Zip Zap Kazoo” (LOL, Pirates announcer Greg Brown) and slam your helmet to the ground like Willy Adames.

     

    Such is life when you’re hitting the ball in the vicinity of Hayes.

  • Stat of the Week: 2022 MLB Year-End Awards

    Stat of the Week: 2022 MLB Year-End Awards

    Happy Holidays!

    Every year at this time we do some supplemental, statistically-driven MLB awards. These will salute some of the leaders in specific areas of our recordkeeping. Here are the 2022 winners:

    The Hard-Hitter Award

    Sports Info Solutions charts every batted ball as hard-, medium- or soft-hit, based on the ball’s location and velocity (note that this differs from how Statcast tracks hard-hit rate).

    The winner of the Hard-Hitter Award is the player who had the highest percentage of batted balls that were hard-hit among  batters with a minimum of 350 plate appearances in 2022.

    You already know who the winner of this is without even looking. The winner is new Yankees captain Aaron Judge, who recorded a hard-hit ball on 48.0% of his batted balls on the way to a 62-homer season. Judge beat out Yordan Alvarez (44.2%), Teoscar Hernández (43.8%), Byron Buxton (41.8%), and Willson Contreras (41.6%).

    The Braves led the majors in team hard-hit rate, snapping the Dodgers’ three-year run in the top spot. Their hard-hit rate of 34.4% edged out the Dodgers by two-tenths of a percentage point. The Blue Jays (34.0%), Twins (33.0%), and Brewers (32.9%) round out the top five.

    The Contact Minimizer Award

    The Contact Minimizer goes to the pitcher who most limited hard contact in 2022 (minimum 100 innings pitched).

    The winner is Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, who allowed a hard-hit ball on 23.7% of the batted balls against him. Jake Odorizzi (24.2%) was the surprise runner-up, followed by Max Fried (24.5%), Shohei Ohtani (24.6%), Ranger Suárez (25.2%), and Chris Bassitt (25.2%).

    The team leader was the Phillies (27.3%), with the Yankees (27.7%), Braves (27.8%), and Giants (27.8%) all right behind.

    The Flat Bat Award

    The Flat Bat Award is given annually to the best bunter of the year. To determine the winner, we look at run value–run expectancy gained or lost–for both successful and unsuccessful sacrifice bunt and bunt-for-hit attempts for each player.

    This year’s winner is Victor Robles of the Nationals, who led MLB with 10 bunt hits (and only 3 failed attempts) and ranked third with 11 sacrifices (versus two failed attempts).

    The runner-up for Flat Bat for the second straight season was Daulton Varsho, who had 9 bunt hits and 2 sacrifices.

    Click here to read about the methodology behind the Flat Bat Award.

    The Vacuum Cleaner Award

    SIS Video Scouts also track what are known as “Good Fielding Plays,” which are often those that lead to the unlikely recording of an out. Those can be broken up into different subtypes, including one just for groundballs. The leader in Good Fielding Plays on groundballs is the winner of our Vacuum Cleaner Award.

    The winner for 2022 is Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas, who had 20 Good Fielding Plays resulting in a groundball out. Javier Báez finished second with 18, followed by Nolan Arenado and Bobby Witt Jr. (17). Rojas and Arenado had great seasons in Defensive Runs Saved as well. Báez and Witt Jr. did not. The difference between the pairs was that Rojas and Arenado limited their Defensive Misplays & Errors (which we also track). Báez and Witt Jr. had them in abundance.

    The Fly Swatter Award

    This is a similar award to The Vacuum Cleaner, except it’s for Good Fielding Plays resulting in outs on fly balls and line drives.

    The MLB leader in this stat was our Fielding Bible Awards winner for center field, Myles Straw of the Guardians, who had 13 such plays. Robles and Ben Gamel tied for second with 11, followed by Alek Thomas, George Springer, Ian Happ, Alex Verdugo, and Mike Yastrzemski, each with 10.

    The Stolen Base Stopper

    The award for the Stolen Base Stopper goes to the catcher and pitcher who had the most Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2022.

    J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies was the runaway winner with 9 Stolen Base Runs Saved, followed by Christian Bethancourt and Keibert Ruiz with 4 apiece.

    Realmuto threw out 27 runners attempting to steal and had two pickoffs, against 38 stolen bases. His 42% caught stealing rate was one percentage point shy of his career-high set in 2019. That season, he totaled 10 Stolen Base Runs Saved.

    Eight pitchers tied for the lead at that position with 2 Stolen Base Runs Saved – Taijuan Walker, Max Fried, Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Gibson, David Peterson, José Berríos, Tarik Skubal, and Brady Singer. As an example of what nets 2 Runs Saved, Fried allowed 3 stolen bases in 7 attempts and had 1 pickoff in 185 1/3 innings pitched.

    The Hall of Framer

    The Hall of Framer award goes to the catcher who had the best pitch-framing numbers in 2022. In our world, that means the catcher who had the most called strikes above expectations (Strike Zone Plus-Minus).

    Fielding Bible Award winner Jose Trevino of the Yankees led the way with 104 more called strikes than expected and 1.5 extra strikes per 100 taken pitches. Impressive rookie Adley Rutschman ranked second with 80 and 1.3, respectively.

    You can hear Trevino talking about pitch framing in an appearance on The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast.

    To learn more about our pitch-framing methodology, read the paper from our award-winning presentation at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

    For more statistical leaders, check out The Bill James Handbook 2023, which makes a great holiday gift.