Category: Baseball

  • 2020 Fielding Bible Award Winners

    Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) is pleased to announce the winners of the 2020 Fielding Bible Awards. This marks the 15th season that BIS has honored the best defensive players in MLB. The awards are voted on by a panel of experts.

    This year’s winners are:

    PositionNameTeam
    1BMatt OlsonAthletics
    2BKolten WongCardinals
    SSJavier BáezCubs
    3BNolan ArenadoRockies
    LFTyler O’NeillCardinals
    CFKevin KiermaierRays
    RFMookie BettsDodgers
    CRoberto PérezIndians
    PMax FriedBraves
    Multi-PositionKiké HernándezDodgers

    Matt Olson joins Albert Pujols as the only first basemen to win a Fielding Bible Award in three straight seasons. Over the last three seasons, he’s well ahead of the rest of the field in the Range component of Defensive Runs Saved. And he’s the MLB leader in that time in Scoop Runs Saved (Runs Saved from handling difficult throws).

    Kolten Wong becomes the first second baseman to win a Fielding Bible Award in three straight seasons. He’s now won two close votes (this year and 2018) sandwiched around a unanimous choice in 2019. Wong was the only winner from a Cardinals infield that was the best in baseball in turning ground balls and bunts into outs. His 40 Runs Saved at the position over the last three seasons are easily the most in the majors.

    Javier Báez lost out to Nick Ahmed of the Diamondbacks by two points last season but won a tight vote in 2020. This is his fourth Fielding Bible Award, his first at shortstop with the other three being the Multi-Position Award. Báez finished tied for second among shortstops in the component of Defensive Runs Saved that measures range, throwing, and handling balls hit in the air. He finished tied for first in Double Play Runs Saved.

    Nolan Arenado takes his fourth Fielding Bible Award, tying Adrián Beltré for the most won at the hot corner since we began handing them out in 2006. Arenado led all MLB players with 15 Runs Saved, so it’s not surprising he was a unanimous selection. No other third baseman was in double figures in Runs Saved. Arenado stood out most on balls hit to his left, making 58-of-89 plays on which he had a greater than zero chance of getting at least one out. That was 10 more than he was expected to record based on historical probabilities.

    Tyler O’Neill is the fifth different left fielder to win a Fielding Bible Award in the last five years. He earned it on the strength of an MLB-leading nine Runs Saved at the position. O’Neill won with his play on balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark. He caught 46-of-54 chances on those balls, eight more than an average left fielder.

    Kevin Kiermaier wonthe closest vote, with Kiermaier and Byron Buxton finishing even in Points. Kiermaier won on our first tiebreaker, recording six first-place votes to Buxton’s five. Kiermaier won this award in a little different fashion than his previous honor in 2015. He is normally known for catching up to balls with his great closing speed. But this year, he saved six runs with his Outfield Arm compared to only two for his Range & Positioning. The six Outfield Arm Runs Saved were double that of the next-closest player.

    Mookie Betts won for the fourth time in five seasons, receiving all 12 first-place votes. Betts’ four Fielding Bible Awards pass Ichiro Suzuki and Jason Heyward for most won by a right fielder since the Awards began in 2006. Betts extended his streak of seasons with at least 10 Runs Saved at an outfield position to six (one season in center field and now five straight in right field). He led in the Range & Positioning component of Runs Saved in right field, rating above average at getting outs on balls hit to both the shallowest and deepest parts of the ballpark.

    Roberto Pérez became the first repeat winner at catcher since Buster Posey in 2015 and 2016. Though Pérez finished third among catchers in Defensive Runs Saved, he had positive Runs Saved totals in pitch framing, pitch blocking, and stolen base deterrence. His MLB-best three Stolen Base Runs Saved came from catching 9-of-13 basestealers and picking off another.

    Max Fried led pitchers with five Defensive Runs Saved, matching the total he recorded in 2019. Fried showed both quick reflexes to snag hard-hit ground balls and the ability to get off the mound to field a weak dribbler or bunt. Additionally, Fried is tough to run on. His four pickoffs tied Tyler Anderson of the Giants for the MLB lead.

    Kiké Hernández saved an MLB-high nine runs at second base, made three starts in right field, three starts in center field, two starts in left field, two starts at shortstop, and chipped in seven innings at first base. He was a major asset to the Dodgers defensively. And in winning his first Fielding Bible Award, he helped the team to the best record in the majors.

    “It is important to us that we continue to present the Fielding Bible Awards, even after this pandemic-shortened season,” said Baseball Info Solutions owner, John Dewan. “I’m very pleased with the work that our panel put in covering games and evaluating the metrics, and I’m confident that the winners of our 15th annual awards are the best of 2020.”

    The awards are determined by a panel of 12 baseball experts, who ranked the top five players at each defensive position (including the multi-position players left out of Gold Glove voting) on a scale from one to five. A first-place vote gets five points, second place gets four points, third place gets three points, etc. Total up the points for each player, and the player with the most points wins the award. A perfect score is 60 points.

    A complete list of ballots and the history of the Fielding Bible Awards (which began in 2006) can be found online at FieldingBible.com and in The 2021 Bill James Handbook, which is available at ActaSports.com.

    About Baseball Info Solutions

    Baseball Info Solutions (also known as Sports Info Solutions) is committed to providing the most accurate, in-depth, and timely professional baseball and football data, including cutting-edge research and analysis, striving to educate professional teams and the public about sports analytics.

  • Best Baserunner of 2020: Mookie Betts

    This excerpt from The 2021 Bill James Handbook was written just after the 2020 regular season concluded (and thus does not include any reference to Betts’ scoring the World Series-clinching run).

    The Bill James Handbook is available now from ACTASports.com

    By Mark Simon 

    In 1983, when I was eight years old, I was given my first Bill James Baseball Abstract (I pronounced it “Abscart”). I had moved to the point of advanced understanding of the game, enough to learn a few important things from my father: Willie Mays is the greatest player of all-time. Keith Hernandez is an incredible first baseman. And the most fun thing to watch in baseball is when Mookie Wilson tries to score from second on a single (or sometimes on a ground out). 

    The numbers back up that Wilson was a very good baserunner. Thirty seven years later they’ll tell you that Mookie Betts is just as good, if not better. 

    Betts was the leader in Baserunning Net Gain in 2020. He tallied +22 bases for the Dodgers from his baserunning. This was the first time in his career that Betts led the majors in this stat. He previously finished tied-sixth in 2015, third in 2016 and 2018, and second in 2017.  

    Betts stole 10 bases in 12 attempts, but it wasn’t stolen bases where Betts made his mark. Betts rated an MLB-best +16 in Baserunning Gain, which measures how often a player takes extra bases on hits (such as going second to home on a single), how often he advances on wild pitches and passed balls, and how he fares at avoiding being thrown out or doubled off, or hitting into a double play.  

    This marked the second time he had the best Baserunning Gain numbers (as opposed to Net Gain), the other instance being in 2017. 

    In 2020, Betts went first to third on seven singles in 13 opportunities (the average runner advances to third 28% of the time), scored from second on a single seven times in eight opportunities (the average success rate is 59%), recorded 12 bases taken, made no baserunning outs, and hit into two double plays in 39 opportunities (his rate was about half the MLB double play rate of 10%).  

    That’s a level of success that Mookie Wilson could appreciate. 

    Largest Baserunning Net Gain – 2020 Season

    PlayerNet Gain
    Mookie Betts+22
    Trevor Story+20
    Kyle Tucker+17
    Brandon Lowe+17
    4 players tied+16
    *Xander Bogaerts, Adalberto Mondesi, Robbie Grossman, Starling Marte 

    The runner up to Betts for the Net Baserunning crown was Rockies shortstop Trevor Story. 

    Story, primarily known outside of Colorado for his hitting and his defense, led the National League with 15 stolen bases after previous seasons of 27 and 23. He finished with a Net Gain of +20 bases. 

    Story’s Rockies led the majors in Net Gain, finishing with a +67. The Diamondbacks (+59), Rays (+43), Athletics (+43), and Rangers (+36) rounded out the top five. 

    Colorado separated itself from other teams in how well it did at taking extra bases on hits. For example, the Rockies scored 42 times in the 55 instances a runner was on second base when a single was hit. Their 76% success rate led the majors. 

    The Rockies ranked second in Baserunning Gain (+43) and third in Stolen Base Gain (+24) en route to being first overall. The rest of the Dodgers didn’t take after Betts. His team ranked 17th overall (+6). 

    Net Gain is a statistic that measures baserunning production that includes all baserunning advancements on both hits and outs (BR Gain) and stolen bases (SB Gain). It estimates the number of bases a player gained or lost for a team due to his baserunning. BR Gain is the sum of extra baserunning advances a player made over the league average, minus a penalty for the number of baserunning outs he made above the league average. SB Gain estimates how many bases each runner gained or lost his team based on his successful and unsuccessful stolen base attempts. 

    The following pages show baserunning performance for players listed in alphabetical order for both 2020 and for the careers of those who qualify. It also includes baserunning numbers for 2020 for each team, ordered by Net Gain. 

  • New baseball podcast: Doug Glanville & Eno Sarris on the World Series

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) talks to former major leaguer Doug Glanville (@dougglanville) of ESPN and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (@enosarris).

    Doug breaks down what goes into making the catches that were made during the postseason, whether it was the home run robberies by Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger, or the tumbling catch by Manuel Margot (3:39). He explains how Mookie Betts is getting better (6:51) and discusses differences in outfield play from when he played to now (13:19). And for fun, we close the segment by talking analytics with Doug – the analytics of great French toast (16:51).

    Eno gives us the state of the Rays and Dodgers heading into the World Series (22:23), talks strikeout percentages and high fastballs (24:24), and picks which player most impressed him (29:27). He also predicts who will win the World Series and how long it will take – both in games and in hours (31:05).

    For more on defensive play in this year’s World Series, check out our preview article at the SIS Blog.

    Thank you for listening. Please rate and review us if you can. Stay safe and stay well.

  • Welcome to the World Series of Defensive Excellence

    By MARK SIMON

    Despite the abundance of strikeouts, walks, and home runs, there has been plenty of outstanding defensive play this postseason and the two teams that have featured it in high volume in October will play in the World Series.

    The Dodgers finished second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved in 2020. The Rays were tied for sixth.

    These are two teams that have valued defense for awhile. The Dodgers have a streak of five straight seasons ranking in the top eight in Runs Saved, including first and second the last two seasons. The Rays have four straight seasons ranking in the top seven.

    So with that in mind, let’s spotlight the players who could show some type of defensive excellence in the next two weeks. There are plenty to pick from.

    Mookie Betts, Dodgers RF

    It was hard to figure out who to list first between the top two choices, but Betts won out. He has the most Fielding Bible Awards of anyone on our list (3 entering 2020) and he had an incredible defensive series in the NLCS against the Braves.

    Betts has saved 104 runs since 2016, the most of any player in that time. Most outfielders don’t put up great numbers tracking down both shallow and deep balls but Betts does, making the shoestring catches and home run robberies.

    Let’s not forget that Betts has a very good arm. He saved 8 runs with it in right field in 2018 and 2019, second at the position to Aaron Judge’s 11. He has 1 assist without the assistance of a cutoff man this season. He averaged 6 the previous four seasons. Maybe a ridiculous throw is what’s next from him.

    The Rays have seen it before. He had two great ones in the same series against them last September, including this one.

    Kevin Kiermaier, Rays CF

    We’ve been tracking Defensive Runs Saved since 2003. Kiermaier rates No. 1 among center fielders in that time with 122. In short, he’s all-around elite and now he gets to show it on the grandest stage for the first time.

    He uses his great closing speed to track down fly balls in spots that other players can’t reach. When he needs to, he’ll jump to make a play. His 36 jumping catches over the last three seasons are the most in the majors.

    This season, Kiermaier’s arm was a huge part of his game. His 6 Outfield Arm Runs Saved led all outfielders, as he recorded 6 assists, 5 without the assistance of a cutoff man. Cody Bellinger got a good look at it in 2019.

    Cody Bellinger, Dodgers CF

    Bellinger won Fielding Bible Awards for right field and multi-positional excellence in 2019. He moved to center field full-time for 2020 and saved five runs, which isn’t quite Kiermaier territory (Kiermaier had 10) but is still pretty good.

    In fact, if you look at the last three seasons, Bellinger’s just a smidge below Kiermaier in Runs Saved per 1,000 innings in center field, his 15 just short of Lorenzo Cain and Kiermaier’s 17.

    Like Betts, Bellinger can get to the deep fly ball and the shallow one. As long as he’s healthy, he’s likely to make an impact. Maybe as significant as this catch.

    Willy Adames, Rays SS

    Adames made a huge jump from 2018 (-5 Runs Saved) to 2019 (12 Runs Saved) in his performance at shortstop. We saw firsthand the pre-game work he was putting in to make these improvements. Though Adames saved only 2 runs in the 2020 regular season, he’s sparkled this postseason, repeatedly making high-difficulty plays.

    Joey Wendle, Rays 3B

    What’s funny about Wendle is that he has a much better statistical history at second base (17 Runs Saved in the equivalent of just over a full season since 2018) than third base (3 Runs Saved in just under 500 innings in that time) but he’s killing it at the hot corner in October. This isn’t a surprise based on Wendle’s past. He’s been a good defensive player for a while.

    “I never saw him do anything without focus and intent,” Jad Prachniak, his college baseball coach at Division II West Chester, told us a couple years. ago.

    Manuel Margot, Rays OF

    Margot ended up splitting his time between all three outfield positions in his first season with the Rays. He’s historically put up good, though not gaudy numbers in center field (22 Runs Saved from 2017 to 2019, which ranked 8th). His range has never been an issue. His arm has, though not this postseason.

    Margot’s memorable plays in the outfield during the regular season were minimal but he showed off his range and athleticism with one of the most impressive plays of the ALCS, tumbling over a wall in foul territory while hanging onto the ball.

    Kiké Hernández, Dodgers 2B

    Hernández has started only three games this postseason, though that’s a product of his offensive shortcomings not his defense. Hernandez tied Nicky Lopez of the Royals for the lead in Defensive Runs Saved by a second baseman this season with 8, a year after finishing second in that stat to Kolten Wong of the Cardinals. Hernández plays a deep second base and uses his range to make plays from all sorts of odd angles.

    Hernández is also the most versatile player in the postseason. At different times this season he’s played first base, shortstop, and all three outfield spots. Wherever he is, he could be a difference maker.

    Hunter Renfroe, Rays OF

    Like Hernández, Renfroe has made only three starts this postseason, as Randy Arozarena and Margot have supplanted Renfroe at the corner spots.

    Though Renfroe finished with -1 Runs Saved in right fieldin 2020, remember that in 2019, his 23 Runs Saved in the outfield matched Bellinger’s total and trailed only Victor Robles’ 25 for most in the majors. You saw a hint of that with this catch in the ALCS.

    Best of the Rest

    Brett Phillips, Rays OF – Phillips may not be on the roster, but if he finds his way into a game, look out. He’s saved 24 runs in not even 900 innings for his career.

    Ji-Man Choi, Rays 1B – What Choi lacks in range, he makes up for with his ability to hold the bag when stretching for throws. As we noted last week, he rates among the best throw scoopers in MLB.

    Chris Taylor, Dodgers Utility – Taylor has been starting postseason games at second base and finishing them in left field. He’s capable at the former but better at the latter, with 14 Runs Saved in just under 1,000 career innings there

    Austin Barnes, Dodgers C – Barnes is the better defensive catcher of the Dodgers’ two backstops. He’s a good pitch blocker and an elite pitch framer. He ranks third in Strike Zone Runs Saved on a per-inning basis the last 4 seasons. Here’s one example:

    Mike Zunino, Rays C – Zunino’s eighth season was the first with a negative Runs Saved total, but we like his track record. His history of getting extra strikes and throwing out basestealers is solid and he could still impact a game with his glove.

    Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers P – Let’s sneak one pitcher in here to close this out and we’ll make it Kershaw for his ability to stop the running game. In his last 21 postseason appearances spanning 107 2/3 innings, Kershaw has more pickoffs (2) than stolen bases allowed (1).

  • Three NPB Position Players We Hope Get Posted

    By TED BAARDA

    Players coming to MLB from overseas are always intriguing to look into. Will they produce similar numbers as they did in Asia? Or will their skills not translate at the highest level? There are opportunities for teams to find a bargain, along with the risk of tying up valuable payroll space on a player who does not contribute to the team. Let’s look into three position players from Japan who may have the opportunity to jump to MLB next season, should their NPB teams permit it.

    Tetsuto Yamada – 2B – Yakult Swallows

    If you search Tetsuto Yamada’s name on the internet, it isn’t long before you find someone who refers to him as Japan’s Mike Trout. Yamada’s strong all-around game is what intrigues people so much, and as he gets closer to free agency it makes more sense for the Yakult Swallows to consider posting him. Yamada’s resume is impressive, with four 30-30 seasons, five All-Star appearances and a Central League MVP award all accomplished before the age of 28.

    Yamada isn’t the biggest player on the field, but he gets the most out of his 5’10”, 163 lb frame by incorporating a big leg kick into his swing. He has quick hands and a level bat path and is able to drive the ball despite his stature. Yamada has above-average speed and strong running instincts (as evidenced by his 176 steals against just 28 caught stealing for his career). While he isn’t an elite defender, he does a solid job at second thanks to his athleticism and strong fundamentals. He has not played any defensive position other than second base since the 2013 season.

    Yamada would be highly sought after if he does get posted, but he is in the midst of a down year by his lofty standards. This could be the result of an upper-body injury (he did not play from July 27-August 12), but Yamada does have a history of being remarkably durable, as he has reached at least 140 games played out of a possible 143 in five of the past six seasons. The injury may have affected his approach at the plate as well, as his strikeout and walk rates have trended in the wrong directions this year.

    Season OPS HR SB BB% K%
    2014 .941 29 15 11% 14%
    2015 1.027 38 34 12.5 17%
    2016 1.032 38 30 16% 17%
    2017 .799 24 14 15% 21%
    2018 1.014 34 33 17% 19%
    2019 .961 35 33 17% 19%
    2020 .819 12 8 11% 21.5%

    Assuming he is fully healthy Tetsuto Yamada could find a role on any MLB team, and maybe this offseason he will get that opportunity.

    Seiya Suzuki – OF – Hiroshima Carp

    When thinking about the prototypical right fielder, two attributes come to mind, namely a strong arm and power at the plate. If you asked an NPB fan who fits this mold, they would likely name Seiya Suzuki’s name off the top of their head. The 26 year-old Hiroshima Carp right fielder has been a consistent power threat in the middle of the lineup and has held his own in the field as well.

    The 5’11” Suzuki has a leg kick that he uses as a timing mechanism, lifting his leg when the pitcher starts coming towards the plate and letting his foot hover in the air until he drives forward with his swing.

    For a smaller player with a flat swing Suzuki can produce power without much visible effort, sending laser-shots all around the diamond. Even when the ball does not leave the park, Suzuki still produces at the plate. He is in the midst of his fifth straight season with a batting average of at least .300 and was the Central League batting champion last season.

    Suzuki was primarily a pitcher in high school, then a third baseman and shortstop upon joining the Carp before settling into right field, all positions that require a strong arm. Runners have to be wary of running on him as Suzuki has 31 assists from right field in the last 4 years. His arm is his best defensive attribute, but he will occasionally get a poor read on fly balls. Still, Suzuki has won the NPB version of the Gold Glove Award in three of the last four seasons, which is a testament to the effort he has put into his defense since moving to the outfield.

    While Suzuki is a gifted athlete, he has not developed instincts on the bases. Despite his good speed he is a poor base-stealer in the NPB, having gone 72-for-119 (60.5% success rate). His focus on the mound for his formative baseball years may have contributed to this, but his success rates haven’t moved from the low 60’s range even in recent years.

    Season AVG SLG HR
    2016 .335 .612 29
    2017 .300 .547 26
    2018 .320 .618 30
    2019 .335 .565 28
    2020 .305 .553 21

    Seiya Suzuki is still just 26, and the Carp may decide to keep him around for a couple more years before posting him (if they choose to), but he could provide an MLB team with a middle of the order righty bat in the corner outfield.

    Tomoya Mori – C – Seibu Lions

    Tomoya Mori is a solid catcher, and at age 25 should be on the radar of MLB teams soon. 2019 was a career year for Mori, as he won the Pacific League batting title and took home the league’s MVP award. But 2020 has seen Mori’s offense take a step back. He still has a solid track record at the plate for his career

    Mori is more known for his accomplishments with the bat than with the glove, and the 5’6” lefty swinger gets a lot out of his diminutive frame.

    Mori uses a big leg kick to start his swing and kicks his foot out in front of home plate before stepping forward in his swing. The body control required to pull off this swing is impressive, and Mori finishes his swing with a violent uppercut. The swing works for Mori, who has shown great bat to ball skills, good gap power and improving plate discipline.

    Season AVG OPS HR BB% K%
    2015 .287 .825 17 8% 27%
    2016 .292 .803 10 11% 24.5
    2017 .339 .934 3 14.5 17%
    2018 .275 .823 16 13% 19%
    2019 .329 .959 23 13% 15.5%
    2020 .253 .699 7 8% 16.5%

    Defensively, Mori’s 5’6” stature is an advantage in one regard, as in a crouch the umpires can easily see over him. Mori’s arm strength is around MLB average for a catcher, as his pop times to second are right around the 2-second range. Mori is a good pitch blocker on balls that are in front of him, but he can have difficulty blocking balls that require him to move laterally.

    One thing that Mori will need to work on is consistency in his setup. When watching a recent game, I noticed that he usually sets up in a crouch when on the third base side of the plate, but will go to one knee when calling for pitches on the first base side of the plate. With a runner on first and second base open he will be in a crouch on both sides of the plate to prepare for a potential throw, but otherwise the crouch/kneel pattern held for most pitches in the game. This type of pattern would be easy for a big league team to notice and exploit.

    Though his height plays fine in the NPB, it will be a challenge for someone his size to play in MLB. There hasn’t been a catcher 5-6 or smaller since Tony Rego, a backup for the St. Louis Browns, 95 years ago.

    Despite his small size, he has a track record of hitting and pitchers have to pitch to his smaller zone (though he is chasing more this year). He is likely a bat-first catcher, and the bar for catcher offense is fairly low at the MLB level giving him a good opportunity to provide value.

    Overall Mori, assuming his bat bounces back, could provide teams with an above-average bat at the catcher position, which is a luxury in today’s game. Some defensive improvements would make him even more appealing to MLB teams as well.

  • New baseball podcast episode: Tim Kurkjian on what he’s watched this postseason

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    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian (@Kurkjian_ESPN) to talk about what he’s seen this postseason in pitching (1:13), hitting (5:46), baserunning (11:31), and fielding (16:56) – both for good and for bad. Tim also picks the player who he’s watched this postseason for whom he now has a greater appreciation (22:09).

    Then, Mark talks with his SIS colleagues, Brian Reiff (@BrianSReiff) and Alex Vigderman (@VigManOnCampus), about their favorite sections in the new 2021 Bill James Handbook, which is available November 1 at ActaSports.com (24:32).

    Thanks for listening. Please rate and review us if you can. Stay safe and stay well.

  • First Things First: Catch those throws

    By MARK SIMON

    There has been some acrobatic artistry on defense this MLB postseason, including some nifty work from first basemen in handling the throws from their teammates (who made nice plays of their own)

    Something special by Adames, but pretty good by Ji-Man Choi too. We’re here to focus on the latter.

    The ability to make a play like Choi’s is one of the components of Defensive Runs Saved, reflected at a site like FanGraphs as part of the rGFP value (GFP stands for “Good Fielding Plays”)

    As it turns out, two of the best first basemen at making good plays on tough-to-handle throws are playing in the LCS.

    Let’s start with Freddie Freeman of the Braves. Besides being a great hitter, Freeman is a great throw catcher. His defense has made him work. Over the last five seasons, Freeman has been given 108 Good Fielding Plays for handling throws, compared to 10 mishandled throws.

    Two other first basemen have at least 100 Good Plays for throw-handling in that time – Eric Hosmer (128) and Paul Goldschmidt (104). But Hosmer has 19 mishandled throws and Goldschmidt has 18. That’s nearly twice as many as Freeman.

    Among the 35 first basemen who have had the most combined Good Plays for throws and mishandled throws (a proxy for opportunities), Freeman has the second-highest success percentage. His 91.5% trails only Joe Mauer (69 scoops, 2 mishandles, 97%).

    Here are two variations of what Freeman can do.

    More recently, Choi, the Rays first baseman, has developed into someone similarly formidable to Freeman. In the last two seasons, he has 28 Good Plays and 3 mishandles for a success percentage just above 90%. That’s not quite atop the leaderboard (Freeman’s at 97% in that same span) but it’s a solid number.

    Choi has wowed during the postseason with the splits he’s done, keeping his toe on the base in order to record outs. Whatever it takes is a phrase that takes on different meaning during the postseason, but these two have been impressive in doing what they’ve done to make their infielders better.

  • New baseball podcast: The power of a game of catch

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    Want to feel good about baseball, people & life? Check out our interview with author @Ethan_Bryan (“A Year of Playing Catch”) Ethan played catch every day for a year He shares the lessons he learned & the fun he had.

    Ethan, a lifelong Royals fan from Springfield, Missouri, talks about where the idea of playing catch every day originated and what the experience was like (1:08) and shares the stories of the prominent people with whom he played catch, including a longtime major leaguer who was in his 80s at the time (11:22). They also discuss notable games of catch in MLB history (23:05) and what a game of catch does for the body and the mind (26:04).

    Ethan’s book is published by Zondervan Books and is available at EthanBryan.com and wherever books are sold.

    Thank you for listening. Don’t forget to rate and review us. Stay safe and stay well.

  • New baseball podcast episode: How Rays, A’s win it all; Yankees, Dodgers don’t

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    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by baseball writer Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) and Mets broadcaster Wayne Randazzo (@WayneRandazzo).

    Joe explains what we’ll be talking about if the Rays and Athletics win the World Series (1:00), then talks about what impresses him about the Cubs, White Sox, and Padres (5:27). We also flip the script and chat about what would cause the Yankees or Dodgers to get knocked out early (10:37) and look at the chances for the Braves and Twins (12:26). Joe and Mark then give their thoughts on rule changes (16:43) and Joe shares some highlights from his baseball newsletter, as he and Mark each discuss their favorite defensive play (19:27) and marvel at how the heck the Giants are still in the race in the final week (23:52).

    Wayne, one of MLBs more stat-savvy radio broadcasters, gives his thoughts on the NL Cy Young through the lens of Jacob deGrom’s candidacy (29:51), and explains potential causes for Pete Alonso’s sophomore slump (35:23). They also discuss the NL East in-depth and what impresses Wayne in watching the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays (37:18). Lastly, they close with Wayne explaining how he uses stats in broadcasts and how he overcomes the hurdle of trying to convey new-school information to old-school baseball fans (41:04).

    Please rate and review us if you can. Thank you for tuning in. Stay safe and stay well.

  • Examining Under-the-Radar and Unexpected Offensive Expected Value Team Leaders

    By Corey Eiferman

    Earlier this year, I published a study into a new offensive statistic that I completed during my time at Baseball Info Solutions. The stat was called Offensive Expected Value, and, as I mention in the original post describing it, is meant to measure a player’s offensive output based on both hit types and out types.

    I have since made slight adjustments to the weights and looked at how players were performing. With this strange regular season almost complete, I wanted to look into a few players from contending teams that fall into one of two categories:

    1. That team’s 2020 Offensive Expected Value leader, who, as a comparison, is also leading that team in wOBA and, doing so unexpectedly or quietly so,

    OR

    • Someone whose team rankings in OEV is higher than their ranking in wOBA.

    *All stats are through September 22nd, all team leaders referenced are with a minimum of 100 Plate Appearances.

    Robbie Grossman, Oakland Athletics: .829

    Robbie Grossman has been a platoon/ backup outfielder for much of his pro career, which has spanned 12 years, and five organizations. All three teams he’s had Major League playing time with made the postseason at least once, but Grossman was never a star. In his second year in Oakland, he entered 2020 as the fourth outfielder, not in their opening day lineup. Since then, Grossman has gotten the start in 40 of the AL West-leaders’, first 54 games in left field. Grossman is second in OEV with the A’s at, .857 behind Matt Chapman, at .887, who is out for the rest of the season with an injury.

    Grossman, slashing .231/.347/.435, has career highs in Statcast’s average Exit Velocity (89.5 mph) and their hard hit rate (36%) which tell the tale of his breakout. Grossman is behind once-top catching prospect Sean Murphy in wOBA but Grossman has a higher rate of plate appearances ending with an extra base hit (11% to 7%) and hits more fly outs (18% to 13%).

    Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays: 1.027

    When the expanded playoff roster format was announced, some people looked at the Blue Jays to pounce on one of those three extra American League playoff spots. Most, if not all, would have assumed that if the 2020 Blue Jays would make the playoffs, they’d be carried on the offensive side by their core of three second-generation stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio.

    However, Teoscar Hernandez currently leads the Blue Jays with a 1.027 OEV, 13 points higher than Bichette’s. Hernandez has been near or above average his entire career but has found a new level in this short season, slashing .303/.349/.617. He’s third in MLB home run rate at 9%, the most crucial ingredient in his 1.057 OEV, which is good for sixth overall.

    Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants: .983

    In the beginning of the 2020 season, Mike Yastrzemski was getting all the attention for his torrid start with the Giants, and deservedly so. However, in the middle 20 games of the season, Brandon Belt’s OPS was almost 500 points higher than Little Yaz’, at 1.463 to .929. Belt also had a ten-day stretch where he raised his OPS by 600 points.

    Belt sits at a .983 OEV, with Yastrzemski at .947. In the first five years I have tracked of OEV, Belt’s park & league adjusted OEV+ has continually decreased, from 115, to 112, to two seasons of 108, down to 102 in 2019. Perhaps consistent years of still being above-average shouldn’t make Belt’s spike too much of a surprise.

    In his first season, in 2011, Belt’s BIS hard hit rate sat at just 25%, and has brought it all the way up to 38% in 2020, while his hard hit rate by Statcast’s measure is 45%, the highest since Statcast began hit tracking.

    As an aside, Austin Slater, a four-corner player whose been a beneficiary of the DH, has only 86 plate appearances, but his OEV is at 1.003. Few people expected the Giants to make the expanded playoffs in 2020, but with San Francisco having a chance to make it, there’s still a chance for a little more even-year magic.

    Wil Myers, San Diego Padres: 1.039

    The San Diego Padres will go into the playoffs as perhaps the most exciting team in the field of 16. While most of the Padres’ attention goes to their left-side of the infield in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as super-utility man Jake Cronenworth, none of those three lead the Padres in OEV. Wil Myers, the longest-tenured Padre, was traded to the Padres in the 2014-2015 offseason, the first time A.J. Preller went for it, does.

    It’s been a bizarre ride for Myers. It’s one thing to have a player show off their versatility year-in and year-out by playing several positions. But Myers, who was a catcher in the minors, has been with the Padres’ for six seasons, his most frequently played position has been five different ones throughout them. In 2020, Myers is finally back in right field, the position he won the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year Award with the Rays.

    Myers sits at a 1.039 OEV, ahead of Tatis, Machado, and Cronenworth, all over .930, and Eric Hosmer, who it’s easy to forget had a one-year reign as the Padres’ highest-paid player. The Padres’ wOBA leaderboard sits in the same order from first to fourth. While Myers’ plate appearances end in more “sole outs” (strikeouts, pop outs, lineouts) than Tatis’ (28% to 26%) he’s made up for it with more fly outs (17% to 15%). And Myers ranks seventh among batting-title qualifiers in hard-hit rate.

    It’s fitting that, in a year where they’re headed to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, that the Padres’ most valuable hitter has been not their cornerstone, or highest-paid player, but the one whose been there the longest.

    Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins: 1.006

    One of the most hyped prospects of the last decade, Byron Buxton is viewed as someone who struggled to live up to what was incredibly enormous potential. If you consider garnering MVP votes a “breakout” season, Buxton has already had a breakout year in 2017, but that was attributed to Gold Glove-winning defense in center field and stealing 29 bases, while only being caught once.

    Now, Buxton, still just 26, is finally showing what he can do with the bat. Buxton is second on the Twins with a 1.006 OEV. When I began writing this piece, just eight days ago, he’s raised it by 106 points, thanks to a hot week where he went 8-for-19. In that time, he also shot up from fourth to second on the team in wOBA, leapfrogging Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario, while sitting just behind Nelson Cruz.

    In 2020, Buxton has a higher home run rate than Sano, a former Home Run Derby participant, at 10% to 7%, and his outfield out rate almost doubles Sano’s, and his rate of extra-base hits per plate appearance is better than Rosario (13% to 8%). Buxton having only one stolen base this season is the one thing holding him back from showcasing all five tools this season, as he’s at 10 Defensive Runs Saved to go along with his finally excellent offense and extra-base power.