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  • New baseball podcast episode: How Rays, A’s win it all; Yankees, Dodgers don’t

    LISTEN HERE

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by baseball writer Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) and Mets broadcaster Wayne Randazzo (@WayneRandazzo).

    Joe explains what we’ll be talking about if the Rays and Athletics win the World Series (1:00), then talks about what impresses him about the Cubs, White Sox, and Padres (5:27). We also flip the script and chat about what would cause the Yankees or Dodgers to get knocked out early (10:37) and look at the chances for the Braves and Twins (12:26). Joe and Mark then give their thoughts on rule changes (16:43) and Joe shares some highlights from his baseball newsletter, as he and Mark each discuss their favorite defensive play (19:27) and marvel at how the heck the Giants are still in the race in the final week (23:52).

    Wayne, one of MLBs more stat-savvy radio broadcasters, gives his thoughts on the NL Cy Young through the lens of Jacob deGrom’s candidacy (29:51), and explains potential causes for Pete Alonso’s sophomore slump (35:23). They also discuss the NL East in-depth and what impresses Wayne in watching the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays (37:18). Lastly, they close with Wayne explaining how he uses stats in broadcasts and how he overcomes the hurdle of trying to convey new-school information to old-school baseball fans (41:04).

    Please rate and review us if you can. Thank you for tuning in. Stay safe and stay well.

  • Examining Under-the-Radar and Unexpected Offensive Expected Value Team Leaders

    By Corey Eiferman

    Earlier this year, I published a study into a new offensive statistic that I completed during my time at Baseball Info Solutions. The stat was called Offensive Expected Value, and, as I mention in the original post describing it, is meant to measure a player’s offensive output based on both hit types and out types.

    I have since made slight adjustments to the weights and looked at how players were performing. With this strange regular season almost complete, I wanted to look into a few players from contending teams that fall into one of two categories:

    1. That team’s 2020 Offensive Expected Value leader, who, as a comparison, is also leading that team in wOBA and, doing so unexpectedly or quietly so,

    OR

    • Someone whose team rankings in OEV is higher than their ranking in wOBA.

    *All stats are through September 22nd, all team leaders referenced are with a minimum of 100 Plate Appearances.

    Robbie Grossman, Oakland Athletics: .829

    Robbie Grossman has been a platoon/ backup outfielder for much of his pro career, which has spanned 12 years, and five organizations. All three teams he’s had Major League playing time with made the postseason at least once, but Grossman was never a star. In his second year in Oakland, he entered 2020 as the fourth outfielder, not in their opening day lineup. Since then, Grossman has gotten the start in 40 of the AL West-leaders’, first 54 games in left field. Grossman is second in OEV with the A’s at, .857 behind Matt Chapman, at .887, who is out for the rest of the season with an injury.

    Grossman, slashing .231/.347/.435, has career highs in Statcast’s average Exit Velocity (89.5 mph) and their hard hit rate (36%) which tell the tale of his breakout. Grossman is behind once-top catching prospect Sean Murphy in wOBA but Grossman has a higher rate of plate appearances ending with an extra base hit (11% to 7%) and hits more fly outs (18% to 13%).

    Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays: 1.027

    When the expanded playoff roster format was announced, some people looked at the Blue Jays to pounce on one of those three extra American League playoff spots. Most, if not all, would have assumed that if the 2020 Blue Jays would make the playoffs, they’d be carried on the offensive side by their core of three second-generation stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio.

    However, Teoscar Hernandez currently leads the Blue Jays with a 1.027 OEV, 13 points higher than Bichette’s. Hernandez has been near or above average his entire career but has found a new level in this short season, slashing .303/.349/.617. He’s third in MLB home run rate at 9%, the most crucial ingredient in his 1.057 OEV, which is good for sixth overall.

    Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants: .983

    In the beginning of the 2020 season, Mike Yastrzemski was getting all the attention for his torrid start with the Giants, and deservedly so. However, in the middle 20 games of the season, Brandon Belt’s OPS was almost 500 points higher than Little Yaz’, at 1.463 to .929. Belt also had a ten-day stretch where he raised his OPS by 600 points.

    Belt sits at a .983 OEV, with Yastrzemski at .947. In the first five years I have tracked of OEV, Belt’s park & league adjusted OEV+ has continually decreased, from 115, to 112, to two seasons of 108, down to 102 in 2019. Perhaps consistent years of still being above-average shouldn’t make Belt’s spike too much of a surprise.

    In his first season, in 2011, Belt’s BIS hard hit rate sat at just 25%, and has brought it all the way up to 38% in 2020, while his hard hit rate by Statcast’s measure is 45%, the highest since Statcast began hit tracking.

    As an aside, Austin Slater, a four-corner player whose been a beneficiary of the DH, has only 86 plate appearances, but his OEV is at 1.003. Few people expected the Giants to make the expanded playoffs in 2020, but with San Francisco having a chance to make it, there’s still a chance for a little more even-year magic.

    Wil Myers, San Diego Padres: 1.039

    The San Diego Padres will go into the playoffs as perhaps the most exciting team in the field of 16. While most of the Padres’ attention goes to their left-side of the infield in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as super-utility man Jake Cronenworth, none of those three lead the Padres in OEV. Wil Myers, the longest-tenured Padre, was traded to the Padres in the 2014-2015 offseason, the first time A.J. Preller went for it, does.

    It’s been a bizarre ride for Myers. It’s one thing to have a player show off their versatility year-in and year-out by playing several positions. But Myers, who was a catcher in the minors, has been with the Padres’ for six seasons, his most frequently played position has been five different ones throughout them. In 2020, Myers is finally back in right field, the position he won the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year Award with the Rays.

    Myers sits at a 1.039 OEV, ahead of Tatis, Machado, and Cronenworth, all over .930, and Eric Hosmer, who it’s easy to forget had a one-year reign as the Padres’ highest-paid player. The Padres’ wOBA leaderboard sits in the same order from first to fourth. While Myers’ plate appearances end in more “sole outs” (strikeouts, pop outs, lineouts) than Tatis’ (28% to 26%) he’s made up for it with more fly outs (17% to 15%). And Myers ranks seventh among batting-title qualifiers in hard-hit rate.

    It’s fitting that, in a year where they’re headed to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, that the Padres’ most valuable hitter has been not their cornerstone, or highest-paid player, but the one whose been there the longest.

    Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins: 1.006

    One of the most hyped prospects of the last decade, Byron Buxton is viewed as someone who struggled to live up to what was incredibly enormous potential. If you consider garnering MVP votes a “breakout” season, Buxton has already had a breakout year in 2017, but that was attributed to Gold Glove-winning defense in center field and stealing 29 bases, while only being caught once.

    Now, Buxton, still just 26, is finally showing what he can do with the bat. Buxton is second on the Twins with a 1.006 OEV. When I began writing this piece, just eight days ago, he’s raised it by 106 points, thanks to a hot week where he went 8-for-19. In that time, he also shot up from fourth to second on the team in wOBA, leapfrogging Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario, while sitting just behind Nelson Cruz.

    In 2020, Buxton has a higher home run rate than Sano, a former Home Run Derby participant, at 10% to 7%, and his outfield out rate almost doubles Sano’s, and his rate of extra-base hits per plate appearance is better than Rosario (13% to 8%). Buxton having only one stolen base this season is the one thing holding him back from showcasing all five tools this season, as he’s at 10 Defensive Runs Saved to go along with his finally excellent offense and extra-base power.

  • Max Fried’s defense adds to his Cy Young candidacy

    By MARK SIMON

    We don’t talk much here about pitching defense, so let’s remedy that by writing about Braves pitcher Max Fried.

    Fried is a Cy Young candidate this season with a 7-0 record and a 1.96 ERA. He’s also a candidate for a Fielding Bible Award. He leads pitchers with 4 Defensive Runs Saved.

    What caught our eye this past weekend was this play against Todd Frazier of the Mets. Fried hustled to the third base side to field Frazier’s slow roller and fired a strike to Freddie Freeman at first base to get the out. The play, one with a 39% out probability, netted Fried nearly a half-run in Runs Saved.

    It resembled the kinds of plays made by Gold Glove winners like Zack Greinke and Dallas Keuchel. In fact, Keuchel made an almost identical play against Frazier last season.

    Fried makes all kinds of plays. If you prefer seeing something that tests his reflexes, here’s a knockdown and recovery of a hard ground ball by J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies from 2019, when he saved 5 runs.

    The other thing that contributes to Fried’s defensive excellence is his success with pickoffs. He had four last season and already has four in 2020, which is tied with Tyler Anderson of the Giants for most in MLB. Pickoffs and basestealing deterrence contributed to 2 Runs Saved to Fried’s total in each of the last two seasons.

    There’s plenty to like about Fried. He has gotten positive value out of his fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup this season. And he’s stepped up to become an ace in the absence of injured teammate Mike Soroka. That he’s good with the glove just adds to his value on the mound and makes his 2020 even more impressive.

  • KBO Player to Watch: Ha-Seong Kim

    By TED BAARDA

    Among baseball fans there is a tendency to look to the future. Young players, top prospects and future draft picks make us excited for what could be. For the most part these players that we look at as the future are in the minor leagues, college or high school, but there are also some fascinating players overseas. Today I want to bring to your attention Ha-Seong Kim, an infielder for the Kiwoom Heroes of the KBO.

    Kim is in the middle of arguably the best season of his career, which started in 2014. KBO players are required to play seven seasons in Korea in order to be eligible for posting, and with this season being his seventh it seems likely that he could be on the market for MLB teams this off-season (Kim himself said as much when he received his Gold Glove award last off-season).

    So what makes Kim such an intriguing player for MLB teams? 

    Let’s start with his bat, as Kim combines great bat to ball skills with an uppercut swing that produces loft when he squares a ball up. And while KBO offensive numbers were inflated early in his career, as the leaguewide offense has fallen back towards “normal” (or closer in line with MLB league averages), Kim’s numbers have not dropped back with the rest of the league. There is also the encouraging fact that despite being one of the best hitters in the league, his numbers keep improving:

    Season BB% K% ISO
    2017 9.7 10.8 .211
    2018 9.4 14.1 .186
    2019 11.2 12.8 .184
    2020 12.9 10.1 .219

    Kim’s plate discipline numbers have improved in each of the last three years to the point where his walk rate is three percentage points higher than his strikeout rate. And while his ISO dropped from 2017 to 2018 he has raised it back to the levels he was producing when the KBO still had a “juiced” baseball (the KBO went to a less lively ball in the 2019 season which resulted in league-wide offensive numbers dropping from previous years).

    Another aspect of Kim’s game to get excited about is his defense and versatility, as Kim has quick reflexes, smooth actions and good situational awareness on the field. He has played primarily shortstop for the Heroes the last two years (our data covering 2019 and 2020), but after his team acquired former MLB SS Addison Russell, Kim has spent some time at third base (likely due to his strong, accurate throwing arm) while still getting regular reps at shortstop when Russell plays second base. 

    Not only is Kim versatile, he can play shortstop just fine, as evidenced by his multiple KBO Gold Glove awards at the position (2018 and 2019). Even though the standard for Gold Glove defense is lower in the KBO compared to MLB, it is still a notable accomplishment. Though his defensive metrics don’t stand out at shortstop we feel good about his skills projecting to MLB, as he would likely transition from a fast turf home field to a slower grass one.

    Kim also has above-average speed to go with his bat and glove, along with improving baserunning instincts. While he has backed off in his stolen base attempts this year, in 2019 he stole 33 bases in 37 attempts. This year he is a perfect 19-19 stealing bases. Since 2016 (when he was caught stealing 15 times as a 21 year old) he has been caught stealing only 14 times in 90 attempts.

    Summary

    Ha-seong Kim appears to have a well-rounded skillset and provides defensive versatility that fits well into today’s MLB game. Kim will be 25 on Opening Day next year, which should give him time to adjust and improve at the MLB level. If your team is out of the MLB race and you want some other baseball to watch, following Kim and Kiwoom through the end of the season and into the playoffs is a great option as well.

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes living up to billing and then some

    By MARK SIMON

    This was the first play of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ major league career and it went about how you would have expected it to go if you had been following Hayes through the minor leagues.

    “He’s one of a few players we have evaluated as plus-plus future defenders,” said Fangraphs’ lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen in April. “He has all those great third-base components — first-step quickness, good footwork, very flexible, good hands, and a strong arm. The thing that has stood out for me in my looks is the composure. Under the constraint of 4.5 seconds of when the ball is hit to when the runner reaches first base, he keeps himself composed when he’s making a tough play. He’s made strong accurate throws from all types of platforms.”

    Hayes has lived up to his reputation as possibly the best defense-oriented prospect in the minor leagues. He’s saved 4 runs in 17 games. He’s hit too – batting .310 with 3 home runs. He’s played third base but he’s looked good playing essentially the shortstop role in defensive shifts (“people, myself included have wondered what he’d look like as a shortstop,” said Longenhagen.)

    On this play you’ll hear another impressed person, ex-pitcher Chris Welsh, who with 28 years of broadcasting experience has seen a lot of good infielders in his time.

    Welsh is not the only broadcaster Hayes has impressed.

    Hayes isn’t shy out there. He’s aggressive to the baseball, as evidenced by how he charged this Whit Merrifield bunt.

    When Hayes appeared on the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast last year, he talked about a drill he did as a Little Leaguer in which the first baseman wore a Superman ‘S’ logo on a t-shirt and it was the goal of the fielders not to jump through the air like a Superman (note that the plays we’ve shown you, Hayes has stayed on his feet), but to throw across the diamond right to the ‘S.’

    This play makes it look like Hayes did pretty well at that drill.

    Hayes takes after his father, former third baseman Charlie Hayes, who was a slick fielding third baseman as well. One of our favorite things about talking to Ke’Bryan last year came after the interview when we showed him this video of his father making a nice catch to close out a no-hitter. Ke’Bryan had not seen it before.

    We’re pretty confident that Ke’Bryan would have snagged that one too.

  • José Abreu’s MVP candidacy boosted by his defense

    By MARK SIMON

    The most surprising thing about José Abreu’s MVP-caliber season isn’t necessarily that he’s hitting .332 with 17 home runs and 51 RBIs for the playoff-bound White Sox.

    It’s that he leads first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved.

    From 2014 to 2019, Abreu had cost the White Sox 25 runs with his defense at first base, including 13 runs in the last two seasons.

    But in 2020, he’s at a solid 6 Runs Saved.

    I say ‘solid’ because I watched the video and am sold on his performance. He looks both nimble and comfortable. The White Sox don’t hesitate to move him to cover the first base/second base hole in their defensive shifts, because he’s been able to get back to the base to cover it when needed.

    On the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast this May, White Sox bench coach Joe McEwing told of working with Abreu early in his career, repeatedly saying “keep your feet moving” to put Abreu in position to get to balls quicker. Those lessons seem to be paying off in 2020 too.

    For instance, last season, Abreu had 13 instances in which a batted ball cost him at least half a run of defensive value. They were chances like this one.

    In 2020, he has none.

    The difference in Abreu’s play is starkest on opportunities for balls hit to his right.

    Let’s show that through one example — Last season, he converted on 7-of-25 chances on balls hit to his right that had an out rate ranging from 30-to-60%.

    Abreu has already converted on 8-of-16 such chances this season, like this.

    The most impressive of those is this one.

    Additionally, Abreu has netted a run from handling bunts and another for his success in turning double plays.

    Abreu does have imperfections. He has 9 Defensive Misplays & Errors, as charted by our video scouts, but his rate on a per-inning basis does not rank among the leaders at the position.

    In sum, he’s looked like a complete player this season — one whose all-around game may push him over the top for an MVP award.

  • New baseball podcast: Biggest surprises of 2020!

    LISTEN

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by New York Times senior baseball writer Tyler Kepner (@TylerKepner) to discuss the biggest surprises of the 2020 season. Among the topics they cover: Jose Abreu’s defense (0:59), the unlikely rise of the Giants offense (4:36), Shane Bieber’s electric stuff (16:24), the defense of Clint Frazier and Mike Trout (26:08), and much more. Thanks for listening. Stay safe and stay well!

  • Sean Murphy turning a negative into a positive for Athletics

    By MARK SIMON

    The Oakland Athletics are likely going to end a streak this season. But it’s not one you probably knew about unless you’re the most diehard tracker of Defensive Runs Saved.

    The Athletics finished with a negative Defensive Runs Saved total at catcher in each of the previous nine seasons. That’s a span that encompasses Stephen Vogt, Kurt Suzuki, Josh Phegley, Derek Norris, and many others. But this season, their catchers are likely going to end that run. They have combined to save 5 runs.

    The reason why things have turned positive is Sean Murphy.

    Murphy made a good enough impression in 13 regular-season starts in 2019 to earn a start in the AL Wild Card game. He’s subsequently turned that into being the Athletics No. 1 catcher in 2020.

    Oakland is 22-9 when Murphy starts at catcher this season and 9-10 when anyone else starts. He’s impacted the Athletics with his bat and his glove. His 5 Runs Saved at catcher are only 1 behind MLB leader Jacob Stallings of the Pirates.

    Murphy has saved 3 of those 5 runs with his pitch framing (he has 1 run from stolen base prevention and 1 run for our pitching staff-handling metric, Adjusted Earned Runs Saved), continuing a pattern of success shown in his minor league numbers. His approach is one of maneuvering his catch of the ball to make the pitch appear just a little more in/closer to the strike zone than it is.

    Here are three examples of how that has come into play.

    64% strike probability

    38% strike probability

    25% strike probability

    With third baseman Matt Chapman out for the season, the Athletics need all the defensive help that they can get. Getting it from catcher is a luxury the Athletics haven’t had for a long time.

    To learn more about our methodology for Strike Zone Runs Saved, check out this award-winning paper from 2015.

  • Numbers show improvement for César Hernández at 2nd Base

    One of the more impressive defensive turnarounds, at least through 46 games in 2020, has been engineered by Indians second baseman César Hernández.

    Hernández, in his first season with the Indians after seven seasons with the Phillies, has saved 5 runs with his defense at second base in 2020, which ranks tied for fourth overall. That’s noteworthy given that he finished with a negative Runs Saved total in each of his last three seasons there.  The Indians, despite their recent losing streak, rank second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only the Cardinals

    It’s also notable just how much better Hernández looks in the field.

    Our Video Scouts track Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors. Good Fielding Plays are Web Gem-type plays, as well as instances in which a fielder did something beneficial to his team, like keep the ball on the infield to prevent a runner from taking an extra base. Defensive Misplays are plays with a negative consequence that aren’t scored errors, such as slipping and falling, or bobbling the exchange on a potential double-play ground ball.

    In 2019, Hernández finished with 8 Good Fielding Plays and 40 Defensive Misplays & Errors. Hernandez had the fewest Good Plays per 100 innings of any of the top 30 second basemen in innings played. And he had the worst ratio of Good Plays to Misplays & Errors of any of those players. This season, he has 6 Good Fielding Plays and only 6 Defensive Misplays & Errors.

    What’s different for Hernández in 2020 is that he’s made the routine play a routine play every time. In 2019, he had 14 instances in which he failed to get an out on a ground ball with an expected out rate of 80% or higher. They looked like this.

    In 2020, he’s had only one such play, which came last week against the Royals. For the most part, he’s been a ground-ball gobbler. One thing noticeable in watching video is that Hernández doesn’t handle every ball cleanly. But whereas in past years, he would lose the potential for an out by kicking the ball away, this season, he’s kept those balls in front of him and still recorded outs

    The statistical impact on the improved defense is that the reward for making good plays has stuck because of a reliability that hasn’t been seen for a while.  There are far fewer mishaps to put a damper on the impact of these plays. That’s how you end up with 5 Defensive Runs Saved.

    Of course, in a short season, many things are possible. But if we look at what happened without any predictive considerations, we’d have to say that Hernández’s defensive success has been an integral part of the team’s defensive performance in 2020.

  • Mariners putting their fielders in the right place

    By MARK SIMON
    This past winter, we made some prominent changes to the way we calculate Defensive Runs Saved for infielders.

    We created a system that allows us to separate the different aspects of defense – providing a way that we could see how much of a play was due to a fielder’s range or throwing.

    We also shifted responsibility for positioning from the player to the team and produced a calculation for how effectively or ineffectively a fielder was positioned on a play.

    This calculation is based on a comparison of two expected out rates

    Out Rate B is the chance that a play will be made given information about the batted ball’s trajectory, location and velocity, the batter’s speed, and the initial positioning of the fielders relative to the ball in play.

    Out Rate A is the chance that the play is made with all the information in B EXCEPT where the fielders were positioned.

    This allows us to determine the value of positioning and to take a look at some things that we couldn’t previously.

    Let’s focus on one of them and answer the question: Which team has gotten the most value from its infield positioning this year?

    The answer is the Mariners. They’ve recorded 10 Positioning Runs Saved, 7 from shifting and 3 from infield positioning when not using a shift.

    What does this mean? It means that Seattle’s combination of frequency (times it induced a ground ball or short line drive) and effectiveness (times the Mariners put an infielder in the proper spot) has produced a highly-positive result.

    Let’s pinpoint this with a few examples:

    In this play from August 30, Albert Pujols hits a ground ball to the left of second base. Based on where the ball was hit, how hard it was hit, what type of batted ball it was, and how fast Pujols is, the Mariners have a 35% probability of recording an out, without factoring in where anyone is positioned.

    However, with the Mariners using a defensive shift, second baseman Dee Gordon barely has to move to field this ball, which becomes a rather routine play for him. As a result, there is .65 plays saved worth of credit to divvy up between the fielder and his team (1 minus the probability of recording an out). Gordon receives a smidge of credit for fielding the ball and another smidge for the throw (.05 plays saved in total). But the bulk of the credit (.65 plays saved) goes to the team for its positioning of Gordon and his teammates.

    Those numbers are subsequently converted into run values, the sum of which produces a team’s and player’s Runs Saved total.


    The team receives a similar amount of credit (.44 plays saved) on this play, one in which first baseman Evan White is guarding the line versus Danny Santana on August 23. The Mariners have only a 36 chance of recording an out here, but again positioning played a key role. White gets .16 plays saved for the execution of the play. The Mariners as a team get .41 plays saved for positioning him in a spot conducive to recording an out.


    A team can receive credit for good positioning even if the player doesn’t make the play. In this play from July 31, White is playing way off the bag and in the right spot but can’t handle the ground ball hit by Stephen Piscotty of the Athletics. The Mariners received a .48 positioning credit for putting White in good position to make the play. In that position, White had a very good chance to make that play and lost .95 plays saved for his inability to field the ball

    A team can be penalized for poor positioning, something that usually happens when a hitter hits a ground ball to the opposite field. The example shown is one in which the Mariners lost .74 plays saved on this ball hit by Nick Ahmed on Saturday. No fielders received a penalty for it because their positioning made the ball unreachable.


    And a team can be penalized for poor positioning, but still make a play. J.P. Crawford was not ideally situated to handle this hard ground ball from Rob Refsnyder on August 12, but he showed great range in getting to the ball and then completing the force play. The Mariners were penalized .38 plays for their positioning of Crawford, but Crawford was rewarded with .85 plays saved for getting the out.

    In sum though, the Mariners have done much more good than harm when it comes to infield positioning in 2020. In 2019, they finished with -6 Infield Positioning Runs Saved, so whatever has been done to improve upon that seems to have been effective, albeit in the small sample of a shortened season.