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  • Stat of the Week: Aaron Judge, Blake Perkins, and Home Run Robberies

    Stat of the Week: Aaron Judge, Blake Perkins, and Home Run Robberies

    Photo:Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire

    “I’m glad we have a 6-foot-8 guy out there catching balls.”

    That’s a postgame quote from Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes, who may have exaggerated Aaron Judge’s height by an inch, but there was no exaggerating the impressiveness of Judge’s home run-robbing catch and subsequent double play against Andrés Chaparro of the Nationals on Monday night.

    “That was crazy,” said Yankees catcher Austin Wells.

    As for Judge, he simply said, “I was just trying to go out there and make a play,” noting that he was trying to match the energy of teammate Alex Verdugo, who made a nice catch earlier in the game.

    Judge’s play brings to mind this unusual distinction. Since the start of the 2018 season, when he made his first homer-robbing catch, he is both the major league leader in home runs with 252 AND home run-robbing catches with 9.

    If we go back to 2016, Judge’s debut season, he leads the majors in home runs (308) and is tied with Lorenzo Cain for the most homer-robbing catches with those 9.

    But it wasn’t the only highly-impressive home run robbery this week. Brewers center fielder Blake Perkins reached well over the fence in left center field to snag a would-be home run from Thairo Estrada of the Giants on Tuesday.

    For Perkins, it was his 4th home run-robbing catch of the season. That’s one shy of the most in a season since we began tracking every one in 2004. The mark is currently shared by Brewers center fielders Carlos Gómez (2013) and Cain (2019), as well as Astros right fielder Josh Reddick (2019).

    “This is my work,” Perkins told reporters after the game. “I’m just trying to do my best to stay aggressive out there and work for my guys on the mound.”

    Gómez and Cain also show up on another list, players with the most home run robberies since 2004. Mike Trout leads the way with 14. Gómez is second with 13 and is followed by Torii Hunter (12), Cain (11), Adam Jones (11), and Ichiro Suzuki (10).

    The Brewers, who lead MLB with 8 home run robberies this season, are one of five teams with at least 50 home run robberies in the home run robbery tracking era. The team leaderboard since 2004 is Angels (63), Tigers (63), Orioles (55), White Sox (54), Brewers (50).

    Immediately after Perkins’ home run robbery, the next batter, Grant McCray, hit a home run.

    It was the first “potential HR is robbed, next batter in inning hits a homer” in MLB in 2024. It’s happened at least once a year from 2016 to 2024 with the exception of 2020 and 2021.

    The one other time the Brewers were involved was against the Twins on July 4, 2018. Center fielder Keon Broxton made a catch on Brian Dozier that was as good as Perkins’ and then the next batter, Eduardo Escobar, homered.

    It’s one of those things that seems extraordinarily unusual but isn’t necessarily so. It happened four times in 2023.

    Most Home Run-Robbing Catches – Since 2004

    Regular Season

    Player HR-Robbing Catches
    Mike Trout 14
    Carlos Gómez 13
    Torii Hunter 12
    Lorenzo Cain 11
    Adam Jones 11
    Ichiro Suzuki 10
    Aaron Judge 9
    Mookie Betts 9
    Coco Crisp 9
    Josh Reddick 9
    Jason Bay 9
  • Stat of the Week: A Strong Brew In Milwaukee

    Stat of the Week: A Strong Brew In Milwaukee

    Photo:Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire

    The last two days notwithstanding, the NL Central leading Brewers have come hard in a push for one of the league’s top two playoff seeds. Defense is an important part of their story.

    Milwaukee is the No. 3 team in the major leagues with 65 Defensive Runs Saved, a total that easily leads the National League. Pat Murphy’s team has continued the emphasis on sound defense that Murphy’s predecessor, Craig Counsell, placed throughout his time as manager.

    The Brewers are the only team to net at least 15 Runs Saved from three different positions—second base, center field, and right field.

    Second base is manned by Brice Turang, who leads players at the position with 20 Runs Saved. Turang was one of our Defensive Player of the Month selections in June. He was pretty good defensively last season too but struggled offensively. He’s bumped his OPS up by 95 points points to its current .680 and taken his defensive game to an elite level. Despite a below-average bat, Turang leads his team with 4.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference version).

    The outfield performance has been a group effort. In center field, Blake Perkins (7 Runs Saved), Garrett Mitchell (5), and Sal Frelick (3) have combined for 15 of the team’s 16 Runs Saved there. In right field, Frelick (11) and Jackson Chourio (9) are responsible for all of the Brewers’ 20 Runs Saved at that position.

    With Christian Yelich out for the season and Perkins just back from the injured list, the Brewers can regularly play the best version of their outfield defense with him in center field, Chourio in left field (6 Runs Saved), and Frelick in right field.

    The Brewers outfield is capable of taking away a lot of extra base hits. Milwaukee is MLB’s best team at robbing home runs this season, something that helps boost their Runs Saved total (since home run robberies literally save runs). 

    Mitchell’s home run robbery against the Cardinals yesterday was his 2nd of the season and the team’s 7th. Perkins, who has 3, is tied for the individual lead in homer-robbing catches with Stuart Fairchild of the Reds.

    The Brewers are respectable defensively at most other positions, with third base being the next-strongest of the other spots. The one player on the roster struggling this season is shortstop Willy Adames, who ranks last at the position with -12 Runs Saved. That’s in contrast to a track record consisting of five straight seasons with positive Defensive Runs Saved.

    Milwaukee’s defensive success is particularly important considering that the pitching staff has the 8th-fewest strikeouts in MLB and is tied for 5th-most home runs allowed. The Brewers’ pitchers have the greatest differential between their FIP* and ERA of any MLB team. Pitchers like Colin Rea, Tobias Meyers and Jared Koenig all have ERAs well below their FIP. The Brewers have saved 14 runs on the batted balls behind Rea, the 4th-highest total by a team for a pitcher.

    * Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimate based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.

    The Brewers are not going to be the favorite to get through the National League to the World Series even if they do have the league’s best record. The Dodgers have hitters you don’t want to pitch to. The Phillies have pitchers no one wants to face. But the Brewers have some guys you definitely don’t want to hit the ball to and if they go a long way this postseason, that could be a difference-maker.

    Team Runs Saved
    Guardians 76
    Blue Jays 75
    Brewers 65
    Royals 60
    Dodgers 42
    Cardinals 36
    Yankees 31
    Mariners 26
    Rangers 25
    Red Sox 25
  • Stat of the Week: Defenses Can’t Stop Bobby Witt Jr.

    Stat of the Week: Defenses Can’t Stop Bobby Witt Jr.

    In February, I wrote an article asking what it would take for Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to make the jump to being an 8-to-10 WAR player.

    Well, it’s August 15 and Witt’s at 7.9 WAR per Baseball-Reference and 8.3 WAR via FanGraphs. We suspect he’s not going back below those numbers, so let’s look into one aspect of how he got there – maybe not one you think about.

    Defensive Runs Saved can be used to measure fielder performance in any number of ways, including against a specific player.

    Opposing defenses have -16 Defensive Runs Saved on the balls hit by Bobby Witt this season. That’s the worst total against any player in the majors.

    This is not to discredit Witt so much as to show that he puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses with his speed.

    For example, this ground ball hit to Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford has a 92% out probability but Witt beats it out. This one to Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux has an 87% out probability but again Witt beats the throw to the base. And here’s a comebacker that Casey Mize muffed, a play that had a 100% out probability at the time. But not anymore.

    Defensive Runs Saved incorporates a player’s speed within its out probability calculations by placing the players into five different speed groupings based on a combination of stats (home-to-first time being the primary one with a Bill James- devised formula utilized if there’s not enough sample of home-to-first times). The top grouping encompasses the fastest 10% of MLB players.

    Witt is in the fastest grouping and at the very top of it. He’s in the Top 10 in average home-to-first time and has the fastest sprint speed. Witt’s now hitting .422 on ground balls this season with as many infield hits (15) as he had in 2023. That batting average ranks second to Cody Bellinger’s .438.

    Similarly, if you miss a fly ball against Witt, he’s going to burn you. He’ll hurt your Runs Saved and boost his slugging percentage. This ball had a 93% out probability for Rangers center fielder Leody Taveras but he missed it, it went over his head, and Witt wound up with a triple. This one had a 71% out probability for Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter. But it too ended up a Witt triple. Witt is tied for second in MLB with 11 triples this season, 5 of them coming on balls that had an out probability of at least 50% for one fielder.

    You might think that Witt benefited from opposing defenses in his first two seasons in the majors too. He did in 2022 when defenses had -18 Runs Saved against him, but last season they saved 4 runs on his batted balls.

    As you’d expect, the players against whom defenses have the most trouble per Runs Saved are some of the fastest players in the sport. Here’s this year’s leaderboard through Wednesday.

    Fewest Defensive Runs Saved By A Defense

    On Player’s Batted Balls (2024)

    Player Current Team DRS
    Bobby Witt Jr. Royals -16
    Amed Rosario Dodgers -14
    Trea Turner Phillies -13
    Elly De La Cruz Reds -13
    Cody Bellinger Cubs -11
    Ceddanne Rafaela Red Sox -11
  • Stat of the Week: Most Improved Defensive Players

    Stat of the Week: Most Improved Defensive Players

    BY MARK SIMON

    If you had said before the season started that Jarren Duran would lead all center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved entering August 6, I’d have been quite surprised.

     And if you’d said that he’d be doing that even as the Red Sox have split his defensive time between center field and left field, I probably wouldn’t have known what to say.

    But here we are in early August. Duran not only ranks No. 1 in center field with 12 Runs Saved. He’s also been good in left field, totaling 5 more Runs Saved.

    In all, he’s made a 22-run jump, from -5 in 2023 to 17 Runs Saved in total in 2024.

    Two players have improved on their Defensive Runs Saved total by at least 20 runs among those who played at least 400 innings in the field both last season and this season. Duran is one of the two. Rockies catcher Elias Díaz is the other.

    The improvement has come in the form of both catches and throws. In his three previous seasons in center field, he’d totaled -13 Runs Saved from range. He’s saved 8 runs with his range there this season plus 1 more run from range in left field.

    Duran leads the majors with 7 Outfield Arm Runs Saved, 4 in left field and 3 in center field. His 9 outfield assists are tied with Miguel Andujar for the major league lead. One of his best of the year was a game-saver last month against the Marlins, a throw that denied the winning run from scoring in the bottom of the 9th.

    Most of the players who rank high in Defensive Runs Saved improvement from 2023 to 2024 had a position change or shift in playing time at one spot this season. You can see the leaderboard at the end of this article.

    But even if we considered only Duran’s Runs Saved change in center field, he’d still be among the most improved defensive players in the game in 2024.

    Elias Díaz

    Elias Diaz frames a pitch from a catching stance

    Average never felt quite so good.

    In 2022 and 2023, Díaz finished last and next-to-last in Strike Zone Runs Saved, our stat which measures a catcher’s ability to get more strikes than expected, with -13 and -16, respectively.

    This season, Díaz’s pitch framing issues are no longer issues. He’s saved 1 run, per Strike Zone Runs Saved, making him basically an average catcher in that area. A closer look at the data shows that Díaz has gotten much better at getting called strikes on pitches to his arm side (pitches outside to right-handed hitters, like this one).

    With that boost, Díaz has 6 Runs Saved overall in just under 500 innings this season, a 22-run improvement from 2023.

    The area in which Díaz rates well is in stolen base prevention. He’s recorded an MLB-best 13 Stolen Base Runs Saved over the last 4 seasons, including 3 Runs Saved in 2024.

    A good finish to the season would give Díaz a chance at his career high in Runs Saved, 9 for the Rockies in 2021. That came two years after his career-worst -21 with the Pirates in 2019, as he’s showing that he can make big improvements to his game.

    Below is a list of the players who have improved the most in overall Defensive Runs Saved

    Biggest Improvement In Defensive Runs Saved

    2023 to 2024 (Minimum 400 Innings Played In The Field Each Season)

    Player Team DRS Improvement
    Jarren Duran Red Sox 22 (-5 to 17)
    Elias Díaz Rockies 22 (-16 to 6)
    MJ Melendez Royals 17 (-14 to 3)
    Riley Greene Tigers 16 (-7 to 9)
    Tim Anderson Marlins 15 (-15 to 0)
    Brandon Marsh Phillies 15 (0 to 15)
    Juan Soto Yankees 14 (-5 to 9)
    Isiah Kiner-Falefa Blue Jays/Pirates 14 (0 to 14)

  • July’s Defensive Players of the Month

    July’s Defensive Players of the Month

    Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez and Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho are two of the best defenders in the sport. You already know they’re great, so we’re not breaking any new ground here. But both had outstanding months, so we wanted to make sure to reward them. They’re our winners of July’s Defensive Players of the Month honors.

    Additionally, picking Defensive Player of the Month is a lot more fun if we include players who don’t necessarily stand out as household names for fielding excellence. That’s why we’re also saluting Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh and Mets outfielder Tyrone Taylor as standout honorable mentions.

    Giménez had as good a defensive month as this author can remember in the seven years we’ve been picking this award here. He finished with an MLB-best 10 Defensive Runs Saved, raising his season total from 6 to a position-leading 16. Giménez was credited with 8 Good Fielding Plays and not charged with any Defensive Misplays or Errors.

    In addition to making some great plays on ground balls and line drives, Giménez also had a terrific relay throw to nail a runner at the plate, a leaping catch of a catcher’s wild throw to prevent an extra base being taken on a steal attempt, and a nifty backup of an errant pickoff throw to again prevent an extra base. Those instances of executing little details add to Giménez’s reputation as a defensive wonder who won the Platinum Glove last year.

    Varsho won Defensive Player of the Month for the second time in 2024 (he also won it in May). He led all outfielders with 9 Defensive Runs Saved and tied Will Benson of the Reds for the outfield lead in Good Fielding Plays with 7.

    Varsho continued to make dazzling catch after dazzling catch, putting his body on the line to make plays and save runs. He leads MLB with 12 Defensive Runs Saved as a left fielder and ranks tied for 2nd with 11 Runs Saved as a center fielder (one run off the MLB lead there). His 18 Good Fielding Plays on flies and liners are the most of any player this season.

    Marsh’s 11 Runs Saved this season barely trail Varsho for most Runs Saved by a left fielder this season. Marsh is doing his best to keep up, and he’s doing so with plays that highlight his sprinting after balls (here and here). Marsh, like Varsho, has moved around the outfield depending on his team’s need. In July Marsh had 4 Runs Saved in left field, 2 in center field and 1 in right field. 

    Taylor is another versatile outfielder who saved an MLB-best 6 Runs Saved in right field and 1 in center field in July. Taylor’s best play was this home run robbery against the Twins in the final series of the month.

    He’s improved the Mets significantly at a position that was problematic prior to Starling Marte’s injury. And though his OPS is below MLB-average and there are other factors to point to for the team’s improvements, it’s worth noting that the Mets are 28-21 when Taylor starts compared to 29-30 when he doesn’t.

  • Stat of the Week: What A Turnaround For The Mets

    Stat of the Week: What A Turnaround For The Mets

    The Mets currently rank 25th in the majors with -13 Defensive Runs Saved. They haven’t gotten positive value at any defensive position over the entire season.

    But to leave it at that would be incredibly misleading because they’re currently on an amazing run. It’s one in which their defense has played a huge part.

    As bad as their -13 looks right now, that’s nothing compared to how entering June they were at -34 Runs Saved, which ranked next-to-last in MLB. After a dreadful start to the season, the Mets are 32-15 in their last 47 games. Since June 1 they’ve totaled 21 Runs Saved, 4th-most in MLB in that time.

    Team Runs Saved
    Guardians 38
    Brewers 30
    Royals 26
    Mets 21
    Blue Jays 16
    Braves 15
    Diamondbacks 15
    Red Sox 12
    Rangers 10
    Astros 9

    Of the top 10 teams in Runs Saved since June 1, the Mets and Astros are the only ones who still have a negative Runs Saved for the season. In other words, most of the teams that were good before continued to be good. The Mets were an anomaly.

    So what happened here?

    Early-season injuries to right fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Alvarez, and a rough start for their other catcher, Omar Narvaez, forced the Mets to make some adjustments and acquire Luis Torrens.

    Tyrone Taylor has rotated between the three outfield spots but has been particularly good in place of Marte in right field. Marte had -9 Runs Saved in right field prior to his injury. For the season, Taylor has 6 Runs Saved there, 4 since June 1.

    Alvarez and Narvaez went through a stretch in which they couldn’t throw any would-be basestealer out. Torrens has caught only 18 games but he’s made a world of difference, throwing out 8-of-12 would-be basestealers and picking off another. He has 3 Runs Saved.

    Meanwhile, shortstop Francisco Lindor got off to a dreadful start to the season but now looks like an MVP candidate. He entered June with -3 Runs Saved but has flipped that around and has 3 Runs Saved since the start of that month.

    Lindor’s positive play has impacted the entire infield. The Mets ranked last in the majors in how frequently they turned a ground ball or bunt into an out through the end of May. They rank 8th since the start of June.

    There are other things going right too. First baseman Pete Alonso has played better defense in this stretch. Harrison Bader replacing Brandon Nimmo in center field improved their defense there from last season, even though it still rates below average in 2024. Nimmo has been alright in left field and avoided major mistakes.

     

    We’d also be remiss if we didn’t point out how the overall play of Jose Iglesias has sparked the team. Three years ago, Iglesias was the worst defensive shortstop in the majors. Now, he’s a utility player and team sparkplug. Though he has -3 Runs Saved at second base, when he’s filled in at third base (a position he last played in 2013), the ball has found him in important spots.

    Iglesias also has a hit song, ‘OMG,’ that has become the Mets’ anthem as they’ve surged into playoff position. The song title is an apt way to describe how their defense has played too.

  • Masyn Winn Has Been One Of the Best On Defense in 2024

    Masyn Winn Has Been One Of the Best On Defense in 2024

    Photo: Marc Goldman/Icon Sportswire

    There are a lot of terrific young shortstops in MLB, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson being the first that come to mind.

    But you know who’s climbing up that list? Twenty-two year old Masyn Winn of the Cardinals.

    Winn currently ranks in the top 10 in the NL in Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement. His defense has a lot to do with that.

    Winn handily leads all shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved. His 14 Runs Saved are 6 more than the next-closest player. No other Runs Saved leader has that large of an advantage.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Shortstops

    Player Team Runs Saved
    Masyn Winn Cardinals 14
    Zach Neto Angels 8
    Brayan Rocchio Guardians 7
    Bobby Witt Jr. Royals 6
    Gunnar Henderson Orioles 6

    Since he’s the best at one of the most important positions on the field, it’s not surprising that he leads MLB in Defensive WAR.

    Winn is good at going both to his left and to his right. Very good, actually. He has the 4th-highest rate among shortstops at turning opportunities* into outs on balls hit to his left and the 2nd-highest rate on balls hit to his right.

    * Opportunity = any ball on which a player has a >0 chance to record an out based on our out probability data

     

     

    Winn’s also had an abundance of opportunities. His range factor ranks 2nd at the position. He plays the position aggressively (examples here and here).

    But the separator for Winn has been effectiveness at turning the double play, something that Runs Saved credits in addition to playmaking. Winn has converted the most double plays of any shortstop in the majors. With the volume of plays he’s made and the difficulty of them, he gets an additional MLB-best 4 Runs Saved just from double plays.

    Here’s a fun punchline on Winn and double plays. He’s not just valuable for being able to turn them better than most, he’s also good at avoiding them at the plate. He’s batted 370 times this season, the most of anyone in the majors who has not grounded into a double play.

    Most of the double plays Winn turns look routine. But he’s got a few impressive ones like the one below. I’ve watched baseball for more than 40 years and I don’t mind saying that one was an Ozzie Smith-like play.

    The Cardinals have had a weird year. They have a negative run differential and their two veteran stars, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have floundered. And yet they’re winning enough to be in the hunt for a playoff spot. With this team, you can’t spell ‘winning’ without the Winn.

     

     

  • Note to MLB Teams: Are You Sure You Don’t Want Kevin Kiermaier?

    Note to MLB Teams: Are You Sure You Don’t Want Kevin Kiermaier?

    Photo: Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire

    Kevin Kiermaier didn’t make MLB Trade Rumors’ list of its Top 50 Trade Candidates. When the Blue Jays put him on waivers, no one claimed him, likely because that would mean paying what’s left on his $10.5 million contract for this season.

    But we have to think there’s some contending team out there for whom Kiermaier could play a prominent role.

    We say this even though Kiermaier is hitting .189 with a .540 OPS in just under 200 plate appearances for the disappointing Blue Jays this season. That OPS is a 201-point dip from last season, a good year that earned Kiermaier his latest one-year deal.

    Kiermaier has value on a good team, which the Blue Jays are not, because he is still a very good defensive center fielder who can impact a game in any inning. Kiermaier won a Fielding Bible Award at that position last year. He’s been very good this year too.

    Kiermaier’s 7 Runs Saved rank tied for 5th among center fielders in 2024. His three-year total of 27 there is topped only by Daulton Varsho (31) and Michael A. Taylor (31). 

    Player Team Runs Saved
    Pete Crow Armstrong Cubs 10
    Jarren Duran Red Sox 9
    Ceddanne Rafaela Red Sox 8
    Daulton Varsho Blue Jays 8
    Kevin Kiermaier Blue Jays 7
    Michael Siani Cardinals 7
    Jacob Young Nationals 7

    In terms of MLB-tracked stats, Kiermaier’s 90-foot split time, his sprint speed, and his jumps are near matches for what they were last season. He ranks in the 97th percentile for arm strength (averaging 93.7 MPH). The skills are still there.

    Admittedly, if you look at most of the contending teams, they’re pretty well set in center field for all 9 innings (for example, the Mariners and Padres aren’t likely to displace Julio Rodriguez or Jackson Merrill at the end of a game for a defensive replacement).

    But there are a couple of spots where Kiermaier could fit. One example would be with the Dodgers where James Outman just came back to try to stabilize the position, though Kiermaier’s a better defender than he is. The Orioles (Cedric Mullins), Guardians (Tyler Freeman), Giants (Heliot Ramos), and Rangers (Leody Taveras) are others that have center fielders that aren’t as good defensively as Kiermaier is.

    These teams could install Kiermaier as their ‘defensive closer,’ bringing him into the game in the 8th or 9th inning to save the game with his glove. As an added wrinkle, they could even give Kiermaier a light-show entrance a la Edwin Díaz, with John Fogerty’s “Center Field” as his entrance music (alright, maybe that’s a little much).

    You might laugh, but remember Michael Harris’ catch and double play in last year’s playoffs or Chas McCormick’s in the 2022 World Series? Kiermaier has made plays that looked like those plenty of times. He had one reasonably similar to that last month. There’s also the catch from the photo atop this article which just happened last week.

    There are other players who will be switching teams in the next couple of weeks who are good defensively. But none have Kiermaier’s reputation for defensive excellence. His value has the potential to be priceless.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Center Fielders

    Since Stat First Calculated in 2003

    Player Runs Saved
    Kevin Kiermaier 159
    Lorenzo Cain 119
    Juan Lagares 81
    Michael A. Taylor 76
    Byron Buxton 76
    Michael Bourn 75
  • Looking For Good Defense? Watch The Rangers When Nathan Eovaldi Pitches

    Looking For Good Defense? Watch The Rangers When Nathan Eovaldi Pitches

    Photos: Leslie Plaza Johnson and John Bunch/Icon Sportswire

    Did you happen to catch Nathan Eovaldi’s seven innings of one-hit ball last Tuesday against the Padres?

    If you did, you saw not only Eovaldi pitch a gem, but the Rangers field some gems. Their combined defensive effort on the batted balls against Eovaldi was worth 2 Runs Saved.

    There was some impressive range.

     

    Some smart defensive positioning

    And some good luck.

    With a few other niceties mixed in.

     

    This isn’t unusual.

    By our measures the Rangers have saved 17 runs on the batted balls hit against Eovaldi this season, the most by any team for any pitcher in 2024.

    It’s often thought that the difference between a pitcher’s ERA and FIP can be attributed to either luck, performance with runners in scoring position, or the caliber of a team’s defensive play. In Eovaldi’s case, it seems like the difference between his 3.10 ERA and 3.74 FIP is a product of the Rangers’ defense. There are pitchers with lower BABIPs than Eovaldi who have not received this kind of defense behind them.

    Two other things we’ve noticed about the Rangers’ defense behind Eovaldi.

    One would be how good Marcus Semien has been. Four of his 10 Runs Saved on batted balls have come when Eovaldi’s pitched. The whole Rangers infield has been great. It has turned 83% of the grounders and bunts against him into outs, the 5th-highest rate in MLB (minimum 60 grounders and bunts) and a rate 10 percentage points higher than MLB average.

    The other would be that the Rangers have played mistake-free. In addition to tracking errors, our Video Scouts also track Defensive Misplays. These incorporate things like if a fielder slipped and fell, or if a potential double play was botched by a poor glove-to-hand exchange. We have more than 60 categories of Misplays.

    The Rangers have had only 3 Defensive Misplays and Errors with Eovaldi on the mound. Eovaldi’s teammates, Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray, each been victimized by 11 Misplays & Errors, Jose Urena 8, and Michael Lorenzen by 7 in a comparable number of innings. Dane Dunning is the one other pitcher in their rotation for whom the Rangers have limited their misplays. They’ve committed 4 for him.

    Eovaldi next pitches for the Rangers on Saturday against the Astros.

    Here are the MLB leaders in most Defensive Runs Saved support on batted balls against them.

    Pitcher Team Runs Saved
    Nathan Eovaldi Rangers 17
    Jose Berrios Blue Jays 14
    Colin Rea Brewers 12
    Aaron Nola Phillies 11
    Logan Gilbert Mariners 11

  • MLB’s First Half Defensive MVP: Daulton Varsho

    MLB’s First Half Defensive MVP: Daulton Varsho

    This is the time of year when people select their first half MVPs and Cy Young Award winners. But nobody ever asks “Who was the first half Defensive MVP?”

    Not until now anyways. I just asked. And now I’ll answer.

    It’s an easy call for me. My choice would be Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.

    Varsho has 12 Defensive Runs Saved in left field (most in MLB) and 7 Runs Saved in center field (1 run shy of the MLB lead). Adding 12 and 7 isn’t necessarily the best way to assess defensive value but if you do, he’s No. 1 in baseball with 19 Runs Saved (he tied Fernando Tatis Jr. for No. 1 last year too). He’s also No. 1 in 2024 in Baseball-Reference’s Defensive WAR, which takes the difficulty of playing the position into account.

    Varsho is on the small side and he’s a little burly. He’s listed at 5-foot-8, 207 pounds. That’s an odd combination for an MLB outfielder in 2024 and one more appropriate for his former position, catcher. In fact, there aren’t even any other semi-regular outfielders who are 5-9 or shorter and 200 pounds or heavier.

    Magicians will sometimes describe a trick as packing small and playing big. That’s a good way to describe Varsho too. He goes after fly balls without fear or hesitation both coming in and going back to make catchers that other outfielders don’t make.

    In April, it felt like he was in Quick Pitch’s “Premier Play” highlights every night. It’s a little less regular these days but still evident. He leads all outfielders with 18 Good Fielding Plays* Much like a good magic trick, you don’t know he can surprise you with how good he is.

    * Good Fielding Plays, awarded by our Video Scouts, encompass great catches, throws resulting in an out, and plays like cutting a ball off to prevent a batter or runner from taking an extra base. 

    Our Video Scouts have credited Varsho with a Good Fielding Play on 15 fly ball or line drive catches this season. You can see what makes Varsho so good by watching some of them.

     

    This one from April 28 against the Dodgers rates higher in fear factor than out probability. Bonus points because Shohei Ohtani was the hitter. Watch it again and listen to the impact. Props to the SportsNet production team for having the wall mic’d.

    By our count, Varsho has caught 4 balls on which he’s crashed into a fence this season, tied with Stuart Fairchild and Jazz Chisholm Jr. for most in MLB.

     If you want to see one that rates higher out probability wise, check out Varsho’s 40-yard dash-and-crash on this one on July 5 against the Mariners and Luke Raley.

    and another of the same nature on April 19 against the Padres and Xander Bogaerts.

    Ouch.

    Sometimes Varsho does approach the wall carefully. Like here on May 13 against a would-be home run hit by Ryan O’Hearn of the Orioles.

     

    I’m going to do something I don’t usually do here and publish a still shot  because this one is just perfect at showing how high he got. Love that an Orioles reliever got a nice close-up of it. He’ll probably never see a better catch.

    Daulton Varsho reaches well over the outfield wall to make a catch as an Orioles relief pitcher watches.

    You’ve now gotten a pretty good look at what Varsho is like when going back to make a difficult play.

    But what about other types of catches?

    Varsho ranks No. 1 in MLB – per Statcast – when assessing how much more ground he covers than the average outfielder within the first 3 seconds of the ball coming off the bat. He’s shown he can go in any direction to make a play.

    This one is our No. 1 play by out probability for Varsho, a liner to right center by Bobby Witt Jr. on April 26. We gave Varsho only a 7% chance of making the catch. Royals broadcaster Rex Hudler realized right away how good it was.

     

    His No. 2 play is also a low liner, this one to left field by Anthony Rizzo, which checked in with a 12% out probability.

     

    And more recently, there’s this catch and double play against Ty France of the Mariners on July 6. It looks like he actually snagged this one with the heel of his glove and then squeezed it while tumbling over.

     

    Varsho has split his time between left field and center field almost evenly this season. His 7 Runs Saved in center field are boosted by the bonus he got for the home run robbery plus a couple for limiting baserunner advances on base hits. He’s made 96 catches on 133 opportunities*, 5 more than the summed out probabilities from those 133 chances indicated he’d make

    * Opportunities = plays with a >0% out probability

    He’s been a very good center fielder. But he’s been a dominant left fielder. There, he’s made 93 catches on 109 opportunities, 12 more than his expected number of catches. He’s far better than the rest of the field in the range component of Runs Saved.

    Varsho’s basically eliminated mistakes from his game. In 2023 he had 11 Defensive Misplays & Errors in just over 800 innings. In 2024 he has 1 Misplay and no errors in just shy of 350 innings.

    We’ve heard from a lot of angry Blue Jays fans on social media who feel that Varsho’s excellence goes unrecognized. That’s not the case here. We’re well aware of just how good he’s been.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Left Field

    Name Team Runs Saved
    Daulton Varsho Blue Jays 12
    Brandon Marsh Phillies 10
    Riley Greene Tigers 8
    Steven Kwan Guardians 8

     

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Center Field

    Name Team Runs Saved
    Jarren Duran Red Sox 8
    Jacob Young Nationals 8
    Pete Crow-Armstrong Cubs 8
    Daulton Varsho Blue Jays 7