Stat of the Week: Bad Start, Good Finish, Now 2026 …

Players who sputtered at the start but closed the season strong on the mound, at the plate, and in the field.

Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire

As we get ready for 2026, one of the things I’m always curious about is whether a player’s strong finish to one year will translate to a strong start in the next year.

In looking at this with regards to pitchers, hitters, and fielders, I came up with seven players whose starts will be worth tracking with regard to this. I’m not going to say whether they’re going to be good or bad this season, just pointing out their success in the latter part of the season.

Pitchers

I’m going to single out three pitchers here: Cade Horton, Gavin Williams, and Sandy Alcantara.

Here’s how they started and here’s how they finished

Pitcher 1st Half ERA 2nd Half ERA
Cade Horton 4.45 1.03
Gavin Williams 3.70 2.18
Sandy Alcantara 7.22 3.33

 

Horton got great results on all three of his most-used pitches the last two months of the season: his four-seam, sweeper, and changeup. By season’s end, he had four pitches with a positive run value and the best second-half ERA in the majors.

Williams may have overachieved a bit and good defense probably played a role in his success, as we noted in article last September. But to his credit, his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from 1.7-to-1 prior to the break to 3-to-1 after it. His breaking pitches got much better outcomes after the break.

Alcantara looked something like his old self towards the end of the season after returning from Tommy John Surgery. In August and September batters went 3-for-40 against his 4-seamer, which averaged around 98 MPH. Save for a couple of starts, his changeup was excellent too.

Player 1st Half OPS 2nd Half OPS
Spencer Horwitz .628 .916
Daylen Lile .635 .956

 

Spencer Horwitz‘s bat came alive in the second half as he performed much better on pitches at the top of the strike zone and above it (both in decisions and results). He finished the season as the only Pirates hitter with an OPS+ of greater than 100. This year, he has a better group of hitters surrounding him.

Twenty-two-year-old Daylen Lile feasted on pitches at the bottom and middle part of the zone in the second half. His defense was problematic (-14 Runs Saved) but his bat is highly promising.

Player 1st Half Runs Saved 2nd Half Runs Saved
Brenton Doyle -11 11
Joey Ortiz -8 6

 

Doyle’s -11 Runs Saved early on seemed like an anomaly and he was able to self-correct. His 11 Runs Saved in the second half were the most of any player at any position, as were his 13 Good Fielding Plays.

Ortiz had 8 Runs Saved as a third baseman in 2024 before being moved back to the position he played all throughout the minor leagues for 2025. His first half Runs Saved weren’t good but in the second half his numbers were much better.

Perhaps it was just a matter of reacclimating. In the second half Ortiz led all shortstops with 15 Good Fielding Plays and halved his Defensive Misplays & Errors from 17 to 8.

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Articles written by the Sports Info Solutions staff

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