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  • Get to know our VP of Baseball, Bobby Scales

    Get to know our VP of Baseball, Bobby Scales

    Mark Simon sat down with our new VP of Baseball, Bobby Scales, to learn about his background, why he came to SIS, and his favorite MLB moments!

    Where did you grow up – tell us about your family?

    Bobby Scales: My dad, Bobby Sr., has been in some form of sales his entire adult life. Once we moved to Atlanta, he and my Uncle Harvey got into insurance and he did that for 30 plus years. My mom Edith worked for 10 years at Highland Park High School in Detroit then for Georgia Power in Supplier Diversity for 28 years. I’m an only child and I grew up in Roswell, Ga. Graduated from Milton High School class of 1995.

    (Milton High Big Leaguers are: Kyle Farnsworth ‘94, Me ‘95, Dexter Fowler ‘04, Dylan Cease ‘14).

    Where do you live now and tell us about your current family?

    BS: I live just north of Atlanta, GA and I have an eight year old son named Bobby III, we call him Trey.

    Why are you coming to SIS?

    BS: I’m at SIS because my “why” has always been to have an impact on the sports world. Baseball to this point has been my vehicle and my area of expertise. In coming to SIS, I believe that I will impact baseball in a different way than the previous 23 years of my career.

    What skills do you bring?

    BS: My ability to communicate with people, listen, and help drive solutions to issues is my strong suit. I was always the “glue guy” in most teams I played on. Building a cohesive unit and moving the team or individual to the next dot is something that I take a tremendous amount of pride in. SIS is no different. There is a long history of success in the data-driven solutions industry. My job is to help SIS Baseball stay on that path!

    Why do you like baseball as much as you do?

    BS: The game is beautiful in that there are individual battles combined with team choreography on virtually every play. The tactical battles between the managers, the battle between the pitcher and hitter both physically and mentally, the choreography of a ball that goes in the gap and the teamwork and decision making that goes into a great relay to a base.  It can be beautiful or it can be a debacle. The possibility of these things happening on virtually every play is the beauty of baseball to me.

    You had 5,000 pro at-bats, but only a little over 100 in MLB. What kept you going in your pro career? 

    BS: The honest belief that there were players that were getting major league opportunities that I knew in my soul weren’t as good as me. Especially in the middle and end of my career, looking at games on television and having just played a series against a given guy or a given pitcher.

    “That guy had nothing for me last week and now he’s got the ball in the show….c’mon man!!!”

    I said that so many times in my career, I had to get there.

    You played every position but catcher and pitcher – did you have a favorite? 

    BS: Second base. My favorite thing was turning a double play because back then they could come get you at second. When a guy came in hard, wiped you out and you still turned it… there’s nothing better.

    You’re at SIS – so with our being a company that was built on defensive stats – you’re obligated to tell us about your best defensive play. What was it? 

    BS: Houston, 2009 Miguel Tejada was making a bid for his 2,000th hit and he hit a one-hopper off the pitcher’s mound, back up the middle. I was shaded that way and I caught the ball about two steps off the back of the infield, then made the “Jeter” jump throw to Derrek Lee at 1st to get Tejada out.

    What was your ‘Welcome to the Big Leagues’ moment? 

    BS: Getting absolutely wiped out on a double play turn by Lance Berkman…..hell yeah I turned it though!

    You hit 3 major league HRs. What do you remember about them?

    BS: Well, I only hit three, so I remember everything about all of them!

    No. 1: Wrigley Field at night, a pinch-hit homer against San Diego in the 7th. Edwin Moreno’s first pitch was a heater up over the plate. I knew I touched it, but because it was windy at Wrigley and I hadn’t played there a ton, I didn’t know for sure. It went in the seats and I was flying around the bases and didn’t break stride.

    When I got in the dugout Alan Trammell gave me the throat slash-sign meaning I was done. So, I walked in the clubhouse to change out of my spikes and the MLB doping was there and asked to drug test me!

    I thought the guy was kidding, but he was dead serious.

    By the time I got out they had already got the ball. A 20-year-old Northwestern student caught it and wanted to meet me. They brought him to the clubhouse and we spoke briefly. I think he ended up with a Derrek Lee jersey and bat for my ball! 

    No. 2: Wrigley at night, batting right-handed, pinch-hit off Randy Wolf. Battled him for eight pitches, he hung a changeup and I hit it in the seats in left field.

    Fun fact: Bobby was 7-for-17 with 5 runs scored and 2 home runs as a pinch-hitter for his career

    No. 3 Matt Maloney in Cincinnati. Batting right-handed. It was a fastball in on a 1-1 count and very possibly the longest homer I hit in my life.

    Which teammates served as the best example for you in terms of being a good teammate and a good leader?

    BS: Derrek Lee, Ryan Dempster, Alfonso Soriano. They all lead in different ways, but if you’re looking at examples of true professionalism, those guys are at the top of the heap.

    You’ve spent a considerable amount of time in player development. What do you enjoy most about that?

    BS: The best thing about PD is the day-in and day-out quest to help an individual get to the next dot in their career. Whether it was a player, a coach, or a young intern in the office, doing whatever needed to help people advance their careers is something that I really enjoyed. Regardless of what people think, this game is about relationships. Building those relationships is essential to anything we are trying to do!

    What are the challenges a player has to deal with mentally when he goes into a slump?

    BS: The biggest mental hurdle, when it isn’t going well, is truly remembering that you can hit. When you are in a deep one there are times where you think you are the worst player on the planet and it’s a constant struggle not to go down every rabbit hole you can think of just to get a hit.

    For me the worst was all of the people telling you “it’s going to be okay.” Literally everyone in your life is trying to make you feel better and, at the moment, the last thing you need is more voices. Obviously, everyone is different but I used to tell people “If I’m in a bad one…do not call because I’m not answering, let me be mad…I’ll be okay.”

    What sorts of things does baseball need to do moving forward to grow the sport?

    BS: Let go of the past and do what’s best for today’s baseball!

    Baseball holds on to the past as much as any sport I know.

    “Honor the past, live in the present and have an eye for what’s next.”

    That isn’t the exact quote and I don’t know who to attribute it to but I think it’s very applicable. We have such a reverence for the way things were that it’s held us back from growth. From the written rules, unwritten rules, format/length of the season, marketing of players, hiring practices, etc.

    There are a ton of things that are in need of evolution. 

    Quick-hitters

    Favorite player growing up? Barry Larkin….not close.

    Favorite little-known player growing up? Tony Womack because as I started to get older I felt like I could model my game after him and be successful doing it.

    Favorite teams? Detroit Pistons/ Liverpool Football Club/ Mercedes Benz F1

    Favorite moment rooting for your team? Jan. 1, 1998, Michigan against Washington State in the Rose Bowl. I was a junior at Michigan and it was everything it was supposed to be. We beat WSU, won the Rose Bowl, and the National Championship.

  • Hey, Nicholas Castellanos: Don’t be such a grump about analytics!

    By Mark Simon

    Chicago Cubs right fielder Nicholas Castellanos recently expressed his distaste for analytics in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

    In a way, that’s unfortunate. The analytics show that Castellanos has made considerable defensive progress this season, his second full season playing right field.

    In 2018, Castellanos had about as rough a season in right field as any player did anywhere. He cost the Tigers 19 runs, almost entirely based in his struggles hit to the deepest part of ballparks.

    But this season, he’s fared far better at turning those balls into outs, thus taking away potential doubles and triples. Here’s the comparison:

    Balls Hit to Deepest Part of Right Field
    Year Plays Made Opportunities Plays Below Average
    2018 81 134 17
    2019 83 118 1

    Castellanos has gone from performing terribly on those balls to becoming an average fielder on them. He’s got a ways to go to be Cody Bellinger (80 plays made on 95 opportunities) but he’s improved to a reasonable level of adequacy.

    The improvement could be rooted in any number of things, with positional familiarity being the most likely. He’s also played a little deeper than he did last season — moving from an average starting position of 289 feet to 292 feet at Comerica Park, and playing 294 feet deep at Wrigley Field. The one or two steps he may have gained in this could be difference makers.

    Granted, Castellanos still has a ways to go. He’s cost his teams a combined six runs this season and his arm could use improvement in terms of baserunning deterrence. But the analytics are showing something positive for him, and perhaps giving him a reason to give them a chance.

  • Which pitchers topped the command rating leaderboard for 2018?

    By HARRIS YUDIN

    The term “command” is thrown around quite a bit in baseball circles, but for the average fan, it may be hard to quantify. Command differs from control — which relates more to pounding the zone with strikes and avoiding free passes — in that command is all about a pitcher delivering his pitches where the catcher calls for them and locating them so the hitter cannot square up the ball, either by painting the edges or getting hitters to chase out of the zone.

    In this piece, I will delve into which pitchers displayed the best command in 2018.

    In calculating command rating, BIS charts every pitch relative to how close it came to hitting the catcher’s glove, then divides them into four buckets — closest to the mitt, close to the mitt, far from the mitt, and farthest from the mitt. Pitchers who keep the ball down tend to fare well in this stat, since most catcher targets are lower in the strike zone.

    The list begins with two expected candidates — Dallas Keuchel of the Astros and Kyle Hendricks. The two sinkerballers, neither of whom have thrown a pitch faster than 93 miles per hour in their respective careers, have found success over the last few years as command artists.

    Hendricks makes his living on the outside corner, nicking the outer edge 1,022 times — only Zack Greinke painted away more often this year. Meanwhile, Keuchel’s bread and butter is the sinker down-and-in.

    He finished 2018 in the top five in pitches within two inches of the lower (385) and inner (618) edges. Keuchel tallied the most total pitches on the edge, but Hendricks paced all starters in the highest percentage of pitches within two inches of any edge of the plate at 57 percent (we’ll call that stat “edge percentage,” which is slightly different from command rating).

    Here are the top 10 pitchers in our command rating from 2018.

    Highest Command Rating
    Percentage of Pitches Rated “Closest” or “Close” to Hitting Catcher’s Target
    Dallas Keuchel Astros 65.0%
    Kyle Hendricks Cubs 64.4%
    Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks 64.2%
    Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 63.6%
    Kyle Gibson Twins 63.5%
    Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox 62.8%
    Trevor Williams Pirates 60.8%
    Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 60.5%
    Trevor Richards Marlins 60.3%
    Jordan Zimmermann Tigers 60.0%

    Right behind Keuchel and Hendricks is Patrick Corbin. The 29-year-old lefty enjoyed a career year in 2018, cutting back on his fastball usage and relying more on his sharp, back-foot slider — which graded out as the best slider in baseball this season by Fangraphs’ pitch value stats. Corbin clipped the lower edge of the zone more than any other pitcher. He also mustered the second-highest swinging strike rate in the Majors, as hitters repeatedly went after those pitches, but couldn’t hit them.

    Another name that stands out towards the top is Mets starter Noah Syndergaard– a 6’6”, 240-pound power pitcher who has thrown roughly 75 percent of his pitches at least 90 miles per hour this year. He was 13th-best at hitting his spots, surrounded on the list by soft-tossers Jason Vargas, Sam Gaviglio and Mike Leake.

    Syndergaard dotted the edges better than most, managing baseball’s 11th-best edge percentage without relying too heavily on one part of the zone (some have said he should work the top part of the zone more to maximize success).

    Among Cy Young hopefuls, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer all dominated the upper edge of the zone, not surprising given how often they get hitters to chase high pitches for strikeouts. Corey Kluber, Blake Snell and Aaron Nola mostly utilized the outside edge to rack up strikes all season long. That’s also not surprising, given the reliance that each pitcher has in locating his curveball in the best possible fashion.

  • David Bote handled third base well in Bryant’s absence

    By WILL HOEFER

    If you’re a fan of baseball, chances are you’ve watched the David Bote walk-off grand slam at least 25 times by now. We’re talking about a perfect moment. In the wake of that, there have been excellent pieces written about the sheer magnitude of that play in terms of Win Probability Added and how Bote has hit baseballs harder than any human at the game’s highest level in 2018.

    What’s been less talked about, to an extent, is how Bote is not just a one-trick pony. Bote has a limited but solid track record of defensive performance this year at third base for the Cubs. Let’s give a little love for his glove as he did ably in replacing Kris Bryant, who just returned from the DL.

    Bote has four Defensive Runs Saved in his first 40 games at third base for the Cubs. He rates slightly above average on balls in the hole and down the line and hasn’t shown any weaknesses at the position. Additionally, he has 11 Good Fielding Plays and 3 Misplays and Errors as judged by our video scout staff. We have a rating given by Video Scouts for each play that assesses it on a 1-5 scale. Bote’s rating is such that he ranks fourth among third basemen, behind Matt Chapman, Nolan Areando and Anthony Rendon.

    Bote ranks well in Defensive Runs Saved and Scout’s Defensive Rating for all third baseman, which is mighty impressive considering how small his sample is at the major league level and how his numbers in the minors were mainly achieved at second base (where he rated well last season by our Minor League Defensive Runs Saved).

    Regression is probably coming for both his offensive and defensive metrics. Players in general rarely mash like Aaron Judge and pick it like Chapman for a sustained period of time; for fringe prospects like Bote such continued performance is a near impossibility. But for the sake of baseball breakouts, it would be cool if he kept it up.

  • Which infielders are best at making the toss-up plays?

    BY HARRIS YUDIN

    Since the start of the 2017 season, 325 infielders have been the primary fielder on a ball in play with a Sports Info Solutions Defensive Difficulty rating of 3 (1-5 scale). In this piece, we will identify the best and worst at each infield position at converting such plays.

    A play with a 3 difficulty is nearly a 50/50 play— one that can go either way (the actual conversion rate is around 55 percent). Seldom is a Defensive Misplay assigned to a toss-up play, and Good Fielding Plays are more commonly associated with a difficulty rating of 4.

    While it is challenging to near impossible to eliminate all human error, the video scouts at Sports Info Solutions aim to inject as much objectivity into the process as possible. For example, Nolan Arenado is going to make a difficult play look more makable than will Jake Lamb. The goal is to assign the proper difficulty rating by envisioning a league-average defender attempting to make each play.

    In order to qualify here, a player must have at least 200 plays as the primary fielder since the start of last season. All data runs from Opening Day 2017 through May 25.

    First Base
    Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
    Mauer’s success rate on these plays is a whopping 84 percent, helped by his being more successful on diving attempts than any other current first baseman, turning 23 of his 57 opportunities into outs (40 percent).

    Mauer excels moving to both the left and right, often taking away potential extra base hits down the line. While he may not be particularly flashy, the 35-year-old Mauer is making enough plays for the Twins to put off moving him to DH full-time.

    Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates
    On the other end of the spectrum, Bell is currently bringing up the rear as one of two first baseman with a conversion rate below 40 percent (37 percent … just worse than Justin Bour’s 39 percent)—which is unfortunate considering, of the group, he has had the second-most such balls hit in his direction (38).

    Bell is extremely vulnerable to balls hit down the first base line, with just a 31 percent success rate on plays to the right. The Pirates’ cleanup hitter owns the worst Good Fielding Play–Defensive Misplay ratio at the position, so it makes sense that he fails to convert some of the tougher plays.

    Second Base
    Javier Báez, Chicago Cubs
    Baez, the 2017 multi-position Fielding Bible Award winner, has had his most success at second base, where he’s converted 19 of the 24 plays that were considered toss-ups (79 percent).

    He’s the best at the position going back on ground balls, with a 56 percent success rate on plays that require him to break away from the plate. Baez has also fared better when sprinting than any other qualified second baseman, and perhaps most impressively, he has turned a solid 82 percent of forehanded plays into outs (which ranks among the highest for any second baseman). Baez is much more than just a quick tagger; he has great range and picks up almost any ball hit in his vicinity.

    Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
    The eye test tells you that Murphy is well below average defensively. The metrics (-15 Defensive Runs Saved in 2017) agree. And our Defensive Difficulty data? More of the same. The 33-year-old owns a success rate of 41 percent on these plays , the lowest among second basemen.

    He has trouble with balls hit up the middle (26 percent moving to the left) and has recorded an out on just one of his 22 diving plays (5 percent). Murphy has yet to play this season, but his body of work from last year is large enough—and concerning enough—to earn him a spot on this list.

    Third Base
    Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
    While Nolan Arenado blows every other infielder out of the water when it comes to Good Fielding Plays, he has had many more opportunities than all other third basemen. Arenado leads the way in 4-difficulty success rate, but sits fifth in the 3-difficulty category, behind Turner, (71 percent) Eugenio Suárez (71 percent), Adrián Beltré (70 percent) and Kyle Seager (70 percent).

    Turner makes a living on weakly-hit balls—his 62 percent success charging in, 54 percent on sprinting plays, and 73 percent throwing on the move are all among the leaders at the position. Watching Turner man the hot corner is less of a spectacle than watching Arenado or Matt Chapman, but the Dodgers’ No. 3 hitter is as clean defensively as you will find.

    Todd Frazier, New York Mets
    By most advanced metrics, Frazier is one of the better defensive third basemen in baseball (fourth in Defensive Runs Saved, second in Defensive Runs Above Average last year).

    So why has he fared so poorly on these plays (43 percent)? Most of his struggles have to do with positioning—specifically his guarding the line—as he owns just a 28 percent success rate moving to the left and a 59 percent rate on backhanded plays.

    The eight-year veteran has the fourth-worst Good Fielding Play–Defensive Misplay differential among third basemen, with 10 of his 45 Defensive Misplays coming on ground balls hit down the line. Nicholas Castellanos is actually lower on the list at 40 percent success on toss-ups, but he has become a full-time outfielder this season.

    Shortstop
    Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
    We’re going to change things up and go with the leader in ‘Grade 3’ play conversions rather than success rate, because though the differential is slim at the top, Trevor Story has a notable edge in successful conversions over Carlos Correa and Miguel Rojas.

    Story ranked fourth in Defensive Runs Saved last season. The 25-year-old can be mistake-prone, with the fourth-most Defensive Misplays at the position, but he has also accumulated the most Good Fielding Plays, more than half of which have come on ground balls hit in his direction

    Story has thrown on the move 183 times—by far the most in baseball—converting on such plays at a 75 percent clip. This skill has helped him record an out on 43 of the 63 such plays for which he was responsible.

    Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics
    Semien isn’t just the worst shortstop at cashing in on toss-up plays—at 26 percent, he’s the worst infielder by a fair margin. He has made just 29 percent of his sprinting plays. Only Travis Shaw has converted a lower rate such plays in this stretch.

    Semien was actually 16th out of 59 shortstops in sprint speed last season, so it isn’t as if he can’t reach balls hit up the middle or in the hole. He doesn’t have the skills to cash in on these borderline opportunities. He doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, but his 11 Good Fielding Plays are the 38th most at the position.

  • How much has Kyle Schwarber improved on defense?

    BY MARK SIMON
    Kyle Schwarber had a rough re-acclimation to left field for the Chicago Cubs last year. He finished 2017 costing his team 9 runs defensively, which ranked fourth-worst among all left fielders. But in 2018, after a rough Opening Day, he’s flipped the script. His 5 Defensive Runs Saved rank fourth best at the position.

    The story behind Schwarber’s improved numbers is twofold.

    A more careful defender
    For one, he hasn’t done the things that hurt him the most. Last season, our video tracking charged Schwarber with 29 Defensive Misplays & Errors in left field (Misplays being things that had a negative consequence, such as allowing a baserunner to reach or missing the opportunity for an out). That was a rate of one every 28 innings.

    This season, Schwarber has made only 3 Misplays & Errors, a rate of one every 94 innings. If he was playing at last season’s rate, you’d expect that he’d have 10 Misplays & Errors by now.

    One of the biggest issues for Schwarber last season was in his handling of the ball – he had seven misplays for mishandling the ball after a safe hit or after a catch.

    Don’t run on this guy
    The other key change has been in his arm rating. Schwarber has four assists that didn’t require a cutoff man, tied for most among leftfielders, all of which have come this month. Among the highlights was his throwing out Nicky DelMonico at the plate, which netted a big smile as he ran back to the dugout, and the combination of a sliding stop and strong throw to nail Francisco Lindor, who was trying to stretch a single into a double.

    Throwing accuracy has thus far been good for Schwarber, who had 6 Misplays in arm-related categories (Missing the Cutoff Man and Wasted Throw After Hit or Error and Bad Throw to the Plate), but has none this season.

    Those four assists are already one more than Schwarber had all of last season. As such, only four baserunners have taken an extra base (first to third or second to home on a single, first to home on a double) against him on the 18 base hits he’s fielded.

    A 22 percent advance rate (lowest among all outfielders) with four unaided assists is worth four Defensive Runs Saved by itself. A 35 percent advance rate against Schwarber and three unaided assists were valued at -1 Defensive Runs Saved last season.

    Early returns: positive
    Though Schwarber doesn’t have a highlight reel of catches akin to some of his peers, he doesn’t need to have one to be successful. If he can take care of avoiding mistakes, his range and positioning ratings should stay steadily average.

    And so long as he doesn’t fall back into old habits, word will likely get out about his arm.

    In other words, if his defensive improvements match his offensive ones consistently, the Cubs should be in good shape in left field.

  • The Best Position Player in Chicago

    It’s been a rough year for Chicago baseball fans. With disappointing seasons from the likes of Starlin Castro and Paul Konerko, plus the trades of Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, and Matt Garza, there have few bright spots on either side of town. In a few short weeks, Chicagoans will look back and realize that Welington Castillo might be the best player on either roster outside of All-Star victor Chris Sale.

    Welington Castillo was languishing in Iowa until August of 2012, waiting for the Geovany Soto trade to finally get his chance. He hasn’t been an offensive superstar by any means. His .265 batting average is valuable largely because he’s developed into a patient hitter with an above-average .343 on-base percentage.  While he hasn’t shown it in the majors, his minor league numbers suggest that the 26-year-old has some power in the tank. But his bat isn’t what makes him valuable to the Cubs.

    Castillo has excelled in every aspect of his defensive responsibilities this year. First of all, his ability to block pitches in the dirt is unmatched. In the eloquent words of Cubs’ skipper Dale Sveum, “There ain’t nobody better blocking the ball than he is.” The numbers back it up: Castillo has blocked 551 pitches in the dirt this year against just 28 wild pitches, a 95 percent block rate. By comparison, Indians’ catcher/first baseman Carlos Santana has allowed 42 wild pitches this year against only 255 catcher blocks (86 percent). To put it another way, Santana would have to block another 572 consecutive pitches in the dirt without allowing a single wild pitch to match Castillo’s block rate. While it’s not difficult to compare favorably to Santana defensively, BIS estimates that Castillo has saved the Cubs 10 runs on Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays (carried largely by his pitch blocking). Santana, on the other hand, has cost the Indians 7.

    Additionally, there’s his control of opposing baserunners. With Castillo on the field, runners have successfully stolen 53 bases, been caught by the pitcher 5 times, and been caught by Castillo himself 19 times. Omitting pitcher caught stealing, that’s a 26 percent caught stealing rate compared to the league average of 23 percent. On top of that, Castillo has picked off four additional runners, which is more than any other catcher except Chris Iannetta. Baseball Info Solutions estimates that his control of the running game has saved the Cubs another five runs compared to an average catcher.

    All in all, Defensive Runs Saved has Welington Castillo as 18 runs better than an average catcher this season, the best mark in MLB by a full eight runs. It remains to be seen if Castillo’s play will be recognized this offseason when the hardware is passed out. While Gold Glove voters have been notoriously slow to vote for newcomers, the Fielding Bible Awards panel may be quicker to give Castillo his due. As their rebuilding efforts continue, hopefully the Cubs’ management will similarly appreciate the value their backstop provides.

    -Ben Jedlovec, Vice President–Product Development & Sales, Baseball Info Solutions