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  • Dissecting The Returns of Lamar Jackson & Joe Burrow

    Dissecting The Returns of Lamar Jackson & Joe Burrow

    The AFC North has been playing a game of musical chairs at quarterback this season outside of the Steelers who have maintained some stability. The Browns, Ravens, and Bengals have all started three different QBs due to injury and insufficient performance from their backups. This has set up a dramatic division race to end the season as Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have returned from early season injuries.

    The Bengals and Ravens met on Thanksgiving night, and the Ravens squandered a prime opportunity to solidify their position and knock the Bengals out of the division race. Fortunately for the Ravens, they will have the chance to avenge their loss in two weeks in Cincinnati.

    Let’s take a look at how these top signal callers have fared in their returns.

    Lamar Jackson

    Lamar suffered a right hamstring strain in Week 4 against the Chiefs that caused him to miss three games. Unfortunately, Jackson continues to pop up on the weekly injury report since his return with knee, ankle, and toe designations. He does not look fully healthy and his performance is suffering because of it. 

    Part of what makes Jackson such a dynamic QB is his rushing ability, and that has suffered since the lower body injuries piled up. The table below shows the rushing stats for Jackson on designed QB runs (run plays that aren’t QB sneaks, kneels, or scrambles):

    Lamar Jackson on Designated QB Runs

    Pre-Injury Post-Injury
    Att/G 3.0 1.8
    Yds/Att 6.3 3.5
    BT+MT/Att 0.25 0.11
    Total Points 2 -2

    The Ravens are calling designed QB runs at a slightly lower rate and understandably so. Jackson’s efficiency in the run game has been almost cut in half and his inability to make defenders miss seems to be a driving factor. His effectiveness on scrambles has also taken a hit:

    Pre-Injury Post-Injury
    Att/G 2.3 2.8
    Yds/Att 10.0 5.4
    BT+MT/Att 0.33 0.29
    Total Points 9 3

    Jackson has had to scramble a bit more since his return, but without the same impact when healthy. It’s definitely a good thing that he hasn’t avoided scrambling altogether as it shows he still has faith in his legs, despite all the injuries. The threat of him being able to extend plays and scramble opens up things in the passing game. 

    However, Jackson has been struggling throwing the ball, as well. Among 36 QBs with 50 or more pass attempts since Week 9, Jackson ranks 2nd-worst in On-Target% at 61%. The only QB worse than him? JJ McCarthy. 

    The Ravens will need Jackson to step up his play at the end of the season if they want to win the AFC North. Their defense has struggled against the pass this season, ranking in the bottom half of our Total Points player value stat. Their inability to sack the QB has been a big issue, as they rank in the bottom 5 in both pressure rate and sack rate. The Ravens have not been able to rely on their defense like they have in the past.

    Joe Burrow

    Burrow made his return from a Grade 3 turf toe injury that required surgery and will look to build upon a huge Thanksgiving win to make an improbable comeback to win the division. Burrow wore a “hard plate” to protect his injured left toe, so it does seem like he is still battling the injury to some extent.

    Looking at the table below, we can compare Burrow’s Week 1 performance to his recent Thanksgiving performance: 

    Joe Burrow – 2025 Season

    Pre-Injury Post-Injury
    Dropbacks 28 48
    On-Target% 91% 79%
    Total Points/Play 0.19 0.17

    The Bengals didn’t limit Burrow at all in his return as he dropped back to pass 48 times in a game they won comfortably in the second half. His accuracy dropped a bit in his first game back, but his effectiveness only dropped marginally. He doesn’t appear to be having issues throwing to any one side of the field as the On-Target% remains similar to both directions. 

    Similar to the Ravens, the Bengals will need their star QB to carry the load as the Bengals defense against the pass has been putrid. They rank last in Total Points in pass coverage with 24. For comparison, the Commanders are the next worst with 45 Total Points. That’s a  concerning difference. They also have not been able to rush the passer at an effective rate, with pressure and sack rates right in line with the aforementioned Ravens. 

    It wasn’t a vintage Burrow performance by any means, but it was an encouraging first game back after missing a significant portion of the season. My colleague, Bryce Rossler, wrote an article last year about QB performance when returning from a significant injury. A key takeaway is that it takes about four games for a QB to return to his pre-injury form. Lamar Jackson doesn’t quite meet the threshold of missing at least four games that this article is based on, but I think it is still useful for what to expect for the rest of the season.

    AFC North Ramifications

    While talking about the AFC North division race, we’d be remiss not to mention the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a hot start to the season and a commanding lead in the division, they now sit tied with the Ravens at 6-6. Aaron Rodgers has gotten banged up recently dealing with a left wrist injury that caused him to miss a game before re-injuring it upon his return. They desperately need him to stay healthy to try and right the ship, which says something because he has been below-average on the whole this year. 

    This division race might come down to whichever QB can find their pre-injury form the fastest. Historical data says Jackson should have the advantage there, but lingering lower-body injuries may prevent us from seeing Jackson at his best the rest of this season. 

    Can Burrow, the two-time Comeback Player of the Year, lead the Bengals to an improbable division comeback? They will need Burrow to buck the four-game trend as they head to Buffalo this week before a rematch at home against Baltimore that may decide their fate.

  • Nevermore? The 1-3 Ravens’ Playoff Path

    Nevermore? The 1-3 Ravens’ Playoff Path

    Photo: William Purnell/Icon Sportswire

    Prior to the season kicking off, the Baltimore Ravens were +400 to win the AFC. Those were the second-best odds behind only the Buffalo Bills, to whom they lost in the opener despite having a 99.1% win probability with 8:36 to go in the fourth quarter. Since then, not much has gone their way and they stand at 1-3 at the quarter pole with injury issues to boot. Even so, ESPN puts their chances of making the playoffs at 70% and their chances of winning the division at 47%, which puts them neck-and-neck with the 3-1 Steelers (71%/46%).

    So, what gives? Let’s start with the fact that, in the past ten years, there have been 11 instances of 1-3 teams going on to make the playoffs. The 2024 Rams were the most recent team to do so, and the Patriots, Steelers, and Eagles all cracked the playoffs in 2021 after dropping three of their first four. That said, 88 teams have gotten off to a 1-3 start over that period, so very few of them have reached the postseason. Put another way: it may not be uncommon, but it is unlikely.

    How teams that started 1-3 finished (2015-2024)
    1-3 Teams 88
    Made Playoffs 11
    Percentage 12.5%

    Now let’s deal with the particulars: The Ravens are dealing with quite a few injuries at the moment and have a two-game homestand before their bye week. Their schedule was a bit frontloaded and is quite soft after the bye, with those first six opponents sporting a combined 8-16 record. All told, they have the sixth-easiest schedule in terms of opponent net EPA/play after the bye – whereas the Steelers have the sixth-hardest – but they certainly don’t want to be 2-4 or 1-5 heading into it.

    In the meantime, they’re missing a lot of key contributors. Nnamdi Madubuike has been ruled out for the season, and several starters did not participate in practice on Wednesday: quarterback Lamar Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, linebacker Roquan Smith, and cornerback Nate Wiggins. 

    With the exception of Wiggins, who currently ranks 7th among corners in Pass Coverage Total Points/snap, all those players are tenured Ravens who have combined for roughly 5 wins above replacement (WAR) over the past two seasons. That’s a lot of firepower missing, with Jackson deemed ‘unlikely’ to play against the Texans, and Humphrey and Smith both expected to miss at least a few weeks with calf and hamstring injuries.

    Assuming they can tread water over the next few weeks, they’ve got some things they’ll have to clean up moving forward. With the caveat being that they’ve faced some of the best passing offenses in the NFL and also the Chiefs, some of their defensive efficiency numbers aren’t the best.

    Defensive coaches usually soapbox about tackling, stopping the run, preventing big plays, getting offenses into long down and distances, and creating turnovers, and the Ravens check only one of those boxes. They rank 6th in broken + missed tackle rate, but rank 27th in EPA allowed/rush, have neither forced nor recovered any fumbles, and have just 1 interception to 3 dropped interceptions. 

    Worse though is the fact that opposing offenses have consistently been in manageable situations. In terms of opponents’ average distance to go on 2nd and 3rd down, the Ravens defense is in the 8th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of all defenses since 2016. That probably has something to do with them allowing a 43% 3rd down success rate, which is 6th percentile over the same timespan. Put more simply: opposing offenses have stayed on schedule and converted 3rd downs at a high rate accordingly.

    There’s also the problematic dynamic of giving up a lot of big plays and not generating any to offset them. The Ravens pass D ranks 30th in boom rate (offensive plays which generate 1+ EPA) and 30th in bust rate (offensive plays which generate -1 EPA or less), which isn’t a great combination. Part of this is they’ve seen the second-most passes of 15+ air yards and have given up the third-most EPA on those passes. They had this problem last year in the aggregate, but corrected in the second half of the year when they ranked 3rd in boom rate and 2nd in bust rate from Week 10 onward.

    Ravens Pass Defense: Big Play Breakdown (2025)
    Big Play Type Rate Rank
    Boom (big play for O) 31st 30th
    Bust (big play for D) 30th 30th

    On the offensive side of the ball, there have been some bad breaks in big games. The Derrick Henry fumbles were particularly unfortunate considering that he had fumbled just three times in the two previous seasons, and Baltimore lost a total of 36 percentage points of win probability on his fumbles against Buffalo and Detroit.

    Matters were made worse by two three-and-outs against the Bills (-17% WPA) and one against the Lions (-14%), and the Ravens offense has just generally taken a downturn in 4th quarters this year. They’re the 7th-best offense in EPA/play through the first three quarters, and the 22nd-best in the 4th quarter. Stripping out turnovers lifts all offenses, but doing so suggests that theirs have been particularly untimely because their 4th quarter EPA/play looks pretty comparable.

    There are also some run game balancing issues. Last year, they were top six in success rate on both zone and gap runs and were top 10 in gap usage, but this year they’ve skewed zone-heavy and have simultaneously fallen to 27th in zone success rate. And we should beware of small samples, but Derrick Henry is also tracking for the lowest broken + missed tackle rate of his career at just 4%.

    The Ravens’ margin for error going forward is slim, especially in light of the injuries they’ve sustained. However, most 1-3 teams have not been as talented as Baltimore and have not had a two-time MVP quarterback. This is also a particularly weak division with Joe Burrow being out and the Browns being in, so the potential to claw back from down two games is there. Some of this stuff should work itself out over the long-term (e.g. fumble luck on both sides of the ball), but they’ll have to win more early downs on defense, which they should be able to do against their remaining schedule. But first, they have to get to the bye in one piece.

  • 2024 SIS NFL All-Pro Team

    2024 SIS NFL All-Pro Team

    It’s time to unveil our All-Pro team for the 2024 NFL season. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our selections.

    A brief explanation of Total Points:

    Total Points takes nearly everything that SIS measures about a play and uses it to evaluate each player on a scale that allows you to compare them more easily. It’s always useful to be able to understand the different ways in which players can be valuable. Does he break a lot of tackles? Does he get a lot of yards after the catch? Does he make the best out of a poor offensive line? Does he get more pressures than expected? Does he break up a lot of passes? Total Points offers the opportunity to take all of those elements and get a quick picture of how well a player is performing overall.

    You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced within this piece here.

    1st Team Offense

    Position Name Team
    QB Lamar Jackson Ravens
    RB Derrick Henry Ravens
    RB Jahmyr Gibbs Lions
    WR Justin Jefferson Vikings
    WR Ja’Marr Chase Bengals
    TE George Kittle 49ers
    T Brian O’Neill Vikings
    T Tristan Wirfs Buccaneers
    G Landon Dickerson Eagles
    G Kevin Zeitler Lions
    C Hjalte Froholdt Cardinals

    QB – Lamar Jackson – Ravens

    Jackson had yet another MVP-caliber season, and unlike previous years, he did most of his damage in the air. He led the NFL in Passing Total Points per Play, EPA, Boom%, and Points Above Average. Only Joe Burrow had more Passing Total Points than Jackson, but Jackson easily outperformed Burrow as a rusher. – Anthony Haage

    RB – Derrick Henry – Ravens 

    Henry added on to his Hall of Fame career in his first season with the Ravens. Not only did he lead the league with 46 Rushing Total Points, he led the league in yards after contact with 1,096 yards, which accounts for more than half of his total rushing yards on the season. While he finished second in total rushing yards with 1,921, behind only Saquon Barkley, he finished the season atop the RB leaderboard with 94 1st Downs gained, and 66 total broken and missed tackles combined. – Jordan Edwards

    RB – Jahmyr Gibbs – Lions

    Gibbs, also known as “Sonic”, capped off a breakout second season with a 4-TD performance in the season finale against the Vikings where he showed his capabilities as a lead back after splitting the workload with David Montgomery. Gibbs led all running backs in Total Points. Among all RBs with at least 50 carries, he led the league in Total Points per Play and Points Above Average per Play. – JD Allen

    From our R&D team: If you’re wondering why Gibbs was picked over over Barkley, from a statistical perspective, Gibbs has several advantages

    –  More rush EPA on considerably fewer attempts 

    – A better first down rate

    –  A little better boom/bust ratio 

    (“boom” being plays worth at least 1 EPA, “bust” being plays worth -1 EPA). 

    – Gibbs also had a 14-point edge in Total Points on plays in which the offensive line blew a block (there were 34 plays for him, 36 for Barkley). That’s a significant differential.

    WR – Justin Jefferson – Vikings

    Jefferson was one of the easier selections on this team as he torched the NFL this season. His base stats are extremely impressive with 103 receptions, 1533 yards, and 10 TDs, but diving into the stats makes them look even better. He had an NFL-leading 28 receptions of 20+ yards (7 better than 2nd place), led the NFL in air yards, and pass interference calls drawn. – Jeff Dean

    WR – Ja’Marr Chase – Bengals 

    Chase had a monumental season for the Bengals, finishing 1st among all pass catchers with 1,708 receiving yards and 17 TDs. In terms of Receiving Total Points, he finished 2nd among all WRs in the league with 35. – Jared Maslin

    TE – George Kittle – 49ers

    Kittle had the definition of an All-Pro season for a tight end in 2024. He easily led all tight ends in Total Points, led all players in Receiving Total Points, and he also was the league’s best run-blocking tight end. He did so while being the only receiver with less than 100 targets (94) in the Top 5. Rashod Bateman was the only player who outperformed Kittle in Boom%. – Anthony Haage

    T – Brian O’Neill – Vikings

    An unheralded stud on the Vikings offense was their right tackle, O’Neill. He tied for the most Total Points among tackles with 38, and he was remarkably balanced, finishing Top-12 in both Pass Blocking Total Points and Run Blocking Total Points. His standout 1.9% Blown Block Rate further cemented his place as one of the top tackles in the NFL. – Jeff Dean

    T – Tristan Wirfs – Buccaneers

    Wirfs had yet another stellar season for the Buccaneers. He led all left tackles in Pass Blocking Total Points and Points Above Replacement. Given his pass blocking prowess combined with elite penalty avoidance and a top tier blown block rate, there is no debate over Wirfs’ inclusion in our All-Pro 1st team. – Conner Hrabal

    G – Landon Dickerson – Eagles

    Dickerson reinforced his elite status by leading all offensive linemen with 40 Total Points. He was particularly dominant in regards to his run blocking and his 11.5 Run Blocking Total Points, which landed him at the top of the NFL for the second consecutive season. Among left guards, he had the lowest Blown Block Rate, highest Total Points per Snap, and highest Points Above Replacement. – Kyle Shatto

    G – Kevin Zeitler – Lions

    Zeitler had a tremendous first season with the Lions as he finished 2nd among all offensive guards in Total Points with 39. He was the lone guard to finish inside the Top-5 in Pass Blocking Total Points and Run Blocking Total Points, finishing 2nd and 5th, respectively. The veteran guard has shown no signs of slowing down in his 14th NFL season. – JD Allen

    C – Hjalte Froholdt – Cardinals

    Froholdt was a rock for the Cardinals this season. He led all centers in Total Points, Total Points per Snap, Points Above Average, Points Above Average per Snap, and Points Above Replacement (minimum 700 snaps). While one of the more surprising selections, he absolutely earned it. – Conner Hrabal

    1st Team Defense

    Position Name Team
    DT Jeffery Simmons Titans
    DT Cameron Heyward Steelers
    EDGE Jonathan Greenard Vikings
    EDGE Myles Garrett Browns
    LB Zach Baun Eagles
    LB Kaden Elliss Falcons
    CB Derek Stingley Jr. Texans
    CB Pat Surtain II Broncos
    CB Marlon Humphrey Ravens
    S Kerby Joseph Lions
    S Julian Love Seahawks

    DT – Jeffery Simmons – Titans

    Simmons absolutely toyed with offensive linemen this season. He finished the season with 51 Total Points, tops among defensive tackles. He finished 4th in Pass Rush Total Points per Snap and 1st in Run Defense Total Points per Snap, showing extreme effectiveness in all areas of the game. Simmons is truly one of the best players in the game today. – Jeff Dean

    DT – Cameron Heyward – Steelers 

    Heyward put together another great season on the Steelers defensive line. He finished 2nd for all DTs in Pass Rushing Total Points with 28 and 4th in Run Defense Total Points with another 18. He also finished T-4th with 47 pressures and 5th in Tackles per Game with 4.2 Tkl/G for all DTs. – Chad Tedder

    ED – Jonathan Greenard – Vikings

    The Vikings defense took a big step forward this season, and while his teammate Van Ginkel may get a little more attention, Greenard was a force on the edge all season. He finished the season with 12 sacks, 18 tackles for loss, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 passes batted/deflected. His 50 Total Points led Edge players. He finished T-7th in pressures with 68. – Jeff Dean

    ED – Myles Garrett – Browns

    Garrett was second in the league in sacks this year with 14. He also had tied for the 5th-most pressures in the league with 69. Garrett is as consistent as they come year after year, as this was his seventh year in a row with 10 or more sacks and his fourth consecutive year with a Pressure Percentage over 16%. – Ryan Rubinstein

    LB – Zach Baun – Eagles

    Yet another Howie Roseman success story, Baun made a key position switch to linebacker this past offseason and hasn’t turned back since. He ranked 2nd among linebackers with 23 Total Points against the run, he took a monumental step forward in solidifying his role in the NFL as a premier linebacker. – Kyle Shatto

    LB – Kaden Elliss – Falcons 

    Elliss put together a quietly good season for the Falcons, coming in at 6th among all LBs with 148 total tackles. He finished 6th in Pass Defense Total Points with 20. Elliss also contributed to the Falcons pass rush as he finished T-5th among all LBs with 11 knockdowns on opposing passers. – Jared Maslin

    CB – Derek Stingley Jr. – Texans 

    Stingley Jr. had his best season yet in his young NFL career. The former top-5 pick ranked 3rd at cornerback with 35 Pass Defense Total Points only trailing the other two 1st-Team selections, Marlon Humprey and Patrick Surtain respectively. He also was tied for 3rd among cornerbacks in total interceptions with 5. He led all cornerbacks with 16 passes defended and was not called for any pass interference penalties all season. – Jordan Edwards

    CB – Patrick Surtain II – Broncos

    One of the easiest selections for the team was Surtain. He led all CBs with 52 Total Points, and was also effective on a per-snap basis, finishing 2nd in Pass Defense Total Points per Snap. He had a QBR Against of just 68.4 when targeted, and his 32 Points Above Replacement were one of the highest among all NFL defenders this season. – Jeff Dean

    CB – Marlon Humphrey – Ravens 

    Humphrey continues to impress as he put together yet another stellar season for the Ravens. The star corner led all of their defenders with 47 Pass Defense Total Points, and he had an EPA of -25 when targeted. He proved that he can also take the ball away as he finished T-2nd in the league for Interceptions with 6 total, including a pick-6.  – Jared Maslin

    S – Kerby Joseph – Lions

    Joseph cemented himself as one of the elite safeties in the NFL with 55 Pass Defense Total Points, thanks to a league-leading 9 interceptions. He blew away the safety competition with the next-closest safety having 38 Pass Defense Total Points. To compare, the difference between him and 2nd is the same as between 2nd and 20th. He proved he’s not just a ball-hawk this season, finishing 14th in Run Defense Total Points among all safeties. – JD Allen

    S – Julian Love – Seahawks 

    Love finished 2nd to Joseph in Total Points among safeties. He ranked 7th among all safeties in Pass Defense Total Points with 32 points. While he finished the season with only 3 INTs, he was tied with second place among safeties in passes defended with 8. Not only was Love one of the best pass defenders at the position, he also led all safeties in Run Defense Total Points with 28. – Jordan Edwards

    1st Team Specialists

    Position Name Team
    K Chris Boswell Steelers
    P Tommy Townsend Texans
    Returner KaVontae Turpin Cowboys

    K – Chris Boswell – Steelers

    Boswell was next to automatic this year, hitting 93% of his FG Attempts. He did not miss a single extra point this season, going a perfect 35/35. He missed 3 kicks all season (2 from 50+yards), and ranked second in the league in 50+ yard FG made with 13. – Ryan Rubinstein

    P – Tommy Townsend – Texans 

    Townsend was a weapon this season in setting up the defense for success. He led the league in punts inside the 20 with 31. He also finished 4th in net average punt yards with 44.9 yards per punt. – Chad Tedder

    RET – KaVontae Turpin – Cowboys

    Turpin had another dominant year as a returner, specifically on kickoffs where he took full advantage of the new kickoff rules by accumulating 904 yards and a touchdown. He tacked on another 188 yards on punt returns as well, making him the only player to have over 1,000 return yards in the 2024 season. He was also the only player this season to score both a kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown. – Chad Tedder

    2nd Team Offense

    Position Name Team
    QB Joe Burrow Bengals
    RB Saquon Barkley Eagles
    WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Lions
    WR Drake London Falcons
    WR Brian Thomas Jr. Jaguars
    TE Trey McBride Cardinals
    T Dion Dawkins Bills
    T Lane Johnson Eagles
    G Joe Thuney Chiefs
    G Quinn Meinerz Broncos
    C Creed Humphrey Chiefs

    QB – Joe Burrow – Bengals

    Burrow returned from his 2023 wrist injury with a career year. He topped the charts in the traditional counting stats, throwing for a league-leading 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, while also leading the league in Total Points at quarterback. – Conner Hrabal 

    RB – Saquon Barkley – Eagles

    Barkley’s historic season was one to remember, as he was just the 9th running back to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in NFL history. If the absurd backwards hurdle wasn’t enough to make our All-Pro 2nd Team, Barkley also broke out for at least 150 rushing yards in five separate games this season, the most for a running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012. – Kyle Shatto

    WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown – Lions 

    St. Brown produced another great season in 2024, finishing T-3rd among receivers with 34 Total Points. He led all WRs in Total EPA with 81, and led the league in EPA Per Target, among all WRs with at least 50 targets. He finished 2nd in Positive Play Percentage at 69%. – JD Allen

    WR – Drake London – Falcons 

    London was yet another young wide receiver to follow the trend of making the jump to great in their 3rd season. He finished the year 4th in the NFL with 1,271 receiving yards while finishing top-8 among wide receivers in receiving touchdowns (9) and Total Points (30). – Jeremy Percy

    WR – Brian Thomas Jr. – Jaguars

    Fellow SIS All-Rookie 1st-Team members Brock Bowers and Malik Nabers got most of the spotlight for pass-catching rookies this season, but Thomas gets the nod for our All-Pro 2nd-Team. Only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson had more receiving yards than Thomas, and they had 42 and 21 more targets than him, respectively. Thomas ranked 5th in Total Points among all receivers, which is even more impressive considering Trevor Lawrence played only about half the season. – Anthony Haage

    TE – Trey McBride – Cardinals

    McBride had a stellar season for Arizona and ended as the 11th-best receiver in terms of Total Points and ranked 10th in EPA. He didn’t get into the end zone until the final two games of the season, but he finished with 13 games played with either 5+ receptions or 70+ receiving yards. In addition to his receiving totals, he ranked as the 3rd-best blocking tight end overall for Blocking Total Points, and he ranked first in Points Above Replacement. – Anthony Haage

    T – Dion Dawkins – Bills 

    Dion Dawkins was spectacular this season as the blind side protector for the Bills’ high-powered offense. Dawkins led all offensive tackles in Total Points this season with 38. He finished top-5 among left tackles in Pass Blocking Total Points and 2nd at his position in Run Blocking Total Points. – Jeremy Percy

    T – Lane Johnson – Eagles

    Johnson continued to be a reliable force on the stout Eagles’ offensive line, limiting Blown Blocks to a lowly 1.6% rate, good for second best among all tackles (minimum 100 snaps). He amassed 32 Total Points and earned a spot on our All-Pro 2nd Team. – Kyle Shatto

    G – Joe Thuney – Chiefs

    Thuney has been a constant along the interior for the Chiefs since joining them in 2021. Thuney ranked 2nd in Pass Blocking Total Points and finished top 10 in Total Points and Points Above Replacement among left guards. – Conner Hrabal

    G – Quinn Meinerz – Broncos

    Meinerz put together another great year in the Broncos offensive line. He finished 6th among all OL in Total Points (3rd among all guards) with 37. He also finished top 10 for all OL (4th among all guards) in Points Above Replacement and limited his Blown Block Rate to 1.6% as well. – Chad Tedder

    C – Creed Humphrey – Chiefs

    Humphrey was an anchor on the Chiefs interior line. He was first among all linemen in Passing Blown Block Rate with 0.6% (minimum 400 pass blocking snaps). He was also top-10 in Rushing Blown Block Rate among centers (minimum 200 run blocking snaps), and 5th in Total Points among centers. – Ryan Rubinstein

    2nd Team Defense

    Position Name Team
    DT Chris Jones Chiefs
    DT Jalen Carter Eagles
    EDGE Jared Verse Rams
    EDGE Trey Hendrickson Bengals
    LB Zaire Franklin Colts
    LB Bobby Wagner Commanders
    CB Christian Gonzalez Patriots
    CB Kenny Moore II Colts
    S Xavier McKinney Packers
    S Kyle Hamilton Ravens
    S Geno Stone Bengals

    DT – Chris Jones – Chiefs

    It’s no surprise to see Chris Jones on one of the SIS All-Pro teams again. He led all defensive tackles in Pass Rush Total Points with 30. Additionally, while he finished with only 5 sacks in the regular season, the nine-year veteran once again wreaked havoc against offensive line units as he tied Osa Odighizua of the Cowboys for the lead among defensive tackles with 61 pressures. – Jordan Edwards

    DT – Jalen Carter – Eagles

    Carter terrorized offensive lines all season. He finished 4th among defensive tackles in Total Points and finished in the top-5 among all DTs in both Run Defense Total Points and Pass Rush Total Points. His unique, violent pass rush style allowed him to accumulate 47 pressures on the year. – Kyle Shatto

    ED – Jared Verse – Rams 

    The rookie Verse took the league by storm and put together an All-Pro caliber season. He finished 2nd in pressures among all defenders with 72, trailing only All-Pro Trey Hendrickson. He seemed to always find a way to get to opposing quarterbacks. He also was a force against opposing rushers, as he finished 1st among all DEs with 21 Run Defense Total Points. – Jared Maslin

    ED – Trey Hendrickson – Bengals 

    Hendrickson put together another stellar season, as he seemed to terrorize opposing quarterbacks. He finished 1st in Pass Rush Total Points with 39, while leading all defenders in pressures with 85, 13 more than 2nd place. Hendrickson was also the league leader in sacks with 17.5, which was 3.5 more than 2nd place. – Jared Maslin

    LB – Zaire Franklin – Colts 

    Zaire Franklin was a tackling machine this season, pacing the entire league in total tackles with 173, 10 tackles more than the next highest defender. He also finished tied for 2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles with 5. Franklin picked off 2 passes, which is tied for the league lead at his position, and contributed 21 Pass Defense Total Points, good for 5th among linebackers. – Jeremy Percy

    LB – Bobby Wagner – Commanders 

    Wagner proved again why he is headed to the Hall of Fame with another fantastic season in year 13. Wagner finished 5th among linebackers in Total Points. He ranked third in Run Defense Total Points among linebackers. He also led all linebackers with 91 of his 132 tackles being short of the 1st down marker. – Jordan Edwards

    CB – Christian Gonzalez – Patriots

    As a second-year pro, Gonzalez ranked 3rd among cornerbacks in Total Points. He had 29 Pass Defense Total Points and 12 Points Above Average which ranked Top-8 among CBs. He was also sixth with 77 targets against him, but held opponents to a measly -0.01 EPA Per Target. – Ryan Rubinstein

    CB – Kenny Moore II – Colts 

    Kenny Moore II has been one of the premier slot corners in the league for the past several years, and this year was no different. Moore ranked 5th among cornerbacks in Total Points. He was an all-around demon on the field this year, finishing top-10 among cornerbacks in interceptions (3), tackles for loss (7), Pass Defense Total Points (27), and returned a fumble for a touchdown. – Jeremy Percy

    S – Xavier McKinney – Packers 

    After making a move to the Packers in the offseason, McKinney put together a great season in their secondary. He forced 8 interceptions (2nd most in the league) and totaled 32 Pass Defense Total Points which ranked 5th for all safeties. He also finished Top-10 in Points Above Replacement. – Chad Tedder

    S – Kyle Hamilton – Ravens 

    Kyle Hamilton has quickly become widely regarded as one of the best three-level players in the NFL, making his presence felt all over the field. He finished the 2024 season 7th among safeties in Pass Defense Total Points with 26. He also ranked 4th at his position with 12 pressures (2 sacks) and tied for 3rd in Pass Rush Total Points with 8. – Jeremy Percy

    S – Geno Stone – Bengals

    In a down season for safeties across the league, Stone was a consistent piece in the secondary for the Bengals. He finished 2nd in Coverage Total Points and 2nd in Coverage Points Above Replacement at the safety position to go along with 4 interceptions. His availability was key in his inclusion here with him being 1 of 8 safeties to play more than 600 coverage snaps this season. – Conner Hrabal

    2nd Team Specialists

    Position Name Team
    K Brandon Aubrey Cowboys
    P Matthew Hayball Saints
    Returner Kalif Raymond Lions

    K – Brandon Aubrey – Cowboys

    Aubrey has solidified his place as one of the top kickers in the league, and a lot was asked of him as his 46 FG attempts led the league. Not only was he perfect on extra points, but he also led the league in 40+ and 50+ yard FGs. – Ryan Rubinstein

    P – Matthew Hayball – Saints

    Hayball had a phenomenal season punting for New Orleans, ranking first in the NFL with 27 fair catches, and he had the second-most punts inside the opponents 20 (28). Only Tommy Townsend had more punts inside the 20, but Hayball had less touchbacks than the All-Pro first teamer with just 3 on the year. – Anthony Haage

    RET – Kalif Raymond – Lions

    Raymond led the league with 413 punt return yards while he also added a punt return touchdown to his tally. He had a career-game against the Titans as he recorded 190 PR yards and a TD, and he played a huge part in that Week 9 showdown at Ford Field. – JD Allen

  • Stat of the Week: No. 1 Team Entering NFL Playoffs: The Ravens

    Stat of the Week: No. 1 Team Entering NFL Playoffs: The Ravens

    Photos: Ian Johnson (left), Mark Goldman (center), Leslie Plaza Johnson (right)/Icon Sportswire

    Let’s take a one-week break from baseball to touch on something going on in one of the other sports we cover, the NFL Playoffs.

    Much like SIS devised Defensive Runs Saved as a way to get a better understanding of what was going on in the sport, so too did it create Total Points, a stat that puts a value to almost everything that happens on a football field, taking things into account such as broken tackles, yards after the catch, and blown blocks.

    Total Points uses the Expected Points Added (EPA) framework. EPA works by taking any given situation and finding the odds that each different scoring possibility comes next.

    Total Points is a player level stat, but similar to Wins Above Replacement in baseball, it can be summed to create an overall team value, which we do on a per-play basis.

    A much more comprehensive explanation can be found on our website here.

    So let’s apply this to the NFL playoffs. Here are the playoff teams listed with their 2024 season ranking in Total Points Per Play.

    Team Total Points Per Play Leaderboard – 2024 Season

    Team Total Points Per Play Rank
    Ravens 1st
    Lions 2nd
    Bills 3rd
    Packers 4th
    Eagles 5th
    Broncos 6th
    Chargers 7th
    Vikings 8th
    Chiefs 11th
    Steelers 13th
    Buccaneers 15th
    Commanders 17th
    Rams 19th
    Texans 22nd

    One important thing to note here: These numbers are based on the entire season, meaning that a game in which a team rests its starters counts as much as any other game.

    Case in point: The Chiefs dropped from 7th to 11th after getting shut out by the Broncos. While 11th may not be a reflection of Kansas City’s true talent, it’s worth noting they weren’t dominant in this statistic prior to that, standing about even with the Chargers and Broncos.

    The Ravens, not the top-seeded Chiefs and Lions, are the No. 1 team in Total Points Per Play. Between Lamar Jackson’s overall excellence passing (41 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) and rushing (915 yards) and the dominance of running back Derrick Henry and his 1,921 rushing yards and 6 yards per carry, the Ravens have the No. 1 offense by Total Points Per Play.

    In fact, they’re No. 1 in the Passing, Rushing, and Receiving Components, and No. 6 in Blocking. Jackson is the No. 1 QB on a per-play basis. Henry is the 3rd-ranked running back and Justice Hill ranks 5th.

    Defensively, the Ravens rank 12th in Total Points Per Play allowed and they’re trending in the right direction. They allowed only 43 points in the last four games of the season.

    The defense does have some imperfections. The Ravens allowed 10 points to the Bills in Week 4 but also yielded 31 to the Buccaneers and 38 and 34 in two meetings against the Bengals, so they’re at least a little susceptible to a good offensive team. Baltimore faces Pittsburgh this weekend, a team against whom it allowed 18 and 17 points, respectively, in their two meetings.

    The weakest offense among postseason teams belongs to the Texans, who rank 25th. Quarterback C.J. Stroud took a step back this year, though the Texans were still good enough to win a weak AFC South.

    The top-ranked defense by Total Points Per Play belongs to the Eagles. The Eagles ranked 3rd in all three defensive components – Run Defense, Pass Rush, and Pass Coverage. They just edged out the Broncos, who ranked 7th, 6th, and 2nd in those stats, respectively, as the top defensive team.

    Philadelphia turned it up a notch at the season’s quarter-point. The Eagles allowed 24 points per game in their first four games and 16 points per game in their last 13 games. Their top contributor by Total Points was Zack Baun, who led all NFL linebackers in that stat.

    The weakest defense in the playoffs– by these numbers– belongs to the Commanders, who rank 25th overall, 27th in Run Defense, 21st in Pass Rush, and 19th in Pass Coverage. Washington’s best defense would be to keep its top 10 offense and superstar quarterback Jayden Daniels on the field as much as possible.

    To see the full team Total Points rankings, click here for our final regular season report.

  • NFL Statistical Leaders (entering Week 8)

    NFL Statistical Leaders (entering Week 8)

    Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

    Hi!

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

     Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Scroll to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
     
    Let us know that we’ve done that. Please share any feedback on these info packages. You can contact us at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):

     

    * Yes, that is the Broncos with a 4-3 record ranked No. 2 overall thanks to their No. 2 ranked defense.

    There is basically no difference between the teams ranked No. 2, 3, 4, and 5 in Total Points per 60 plays (that encompasses the Broncos, Vikings, Ravens, and Chiefs, with No. 1 being the Lions).

    * Lamar Jackson had the best game of any quarterback in terms of Points Above Average last week and the reward for that was that he moved into the No. 1 spot in Total Points for quarterbacks. There’s decent distance between him and the No. 2, Joe Burrow.

    * You’ll have to click on the Statpack link to see it, but the No. 1 offensive lineman in Total Points right now is Buccaneers tackle Tristan Wirfs. Wirfs is a three-time Pro Bowl selection who was named first-team All-Pro in 2021.

    * The Giants are 2-5 but have the No. 1 defensive tackle in Total Points (Dexter Lawrence) and the No. 2 linebacker (Brian Burns). The Lions, at least for the moment, can go one better. Aidan Hutchinson remains the No. 1 defensive end (until T.J. Watt surpasses him) and Kerby Joseph is the No. 1 safety.

    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions
    2. Broncos
      3. Vikings
      4. Ravens
      5. Chiefs
      6. 49ers
      7. Bills
      8. Seahawks
      9. Falcons
      10. Commanders

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens, 2. Commanders, 3. Lions, 4. Bills, 5. Falcons

    Full list

    Top 5 Defenses

    1. Chargers, 2. Broncos, 3. Vikings, 4. Bears, 5. Giants

    Full list

    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks

    1. Lamar Jackson
    2. Joe Burrow
    3. Geno Smith
    4. Jayden Daniels
    5. Josh Allen

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs

    1. Derrick Henry
    2. Kenneth Walker III
    3. Najee Harris
    4. Brian Robinson Jr.
    5. Zach Charbonnet

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers

    1. Chris Godwin
    2. Nico Collins
    3. Ja’Marr Chase
    4. A.J. Brown
    5. Jauan Jennings

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends

    1. Aidan Hutchinson
    2. T.J. Watt
    3. Will McDonald IV
    4. Myles Garrett
    5. Calais Campbell

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers

    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Andrew Van Ginkel
    4. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
    5. Jamien Sherwood

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Pat Surtain II
    2. Jaylon Jones
    3. Marlon Humphrey
    4. D.J. Reed
    5. Riley Moss

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Kerby Joseph
    2. Julian Love
    3. Amani Hooker
    4. Nick Cross
    5. Xavier McKinney

    Top 10 list

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    *The current leader in broken/missed tackles is a former Steeler, James Conner. The current runner-up is a Steeler, Najee Harris. With 33 and 32, respectively, they’ve considerably outpaced the rest of the field. Harris leads in broken tackles with 19. Conner leads in missed tackles with 16.

    Harris’ teammate, George Pickens, also tops a leaderboard with 8 receptions on targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    * Rams rookie Jared Verse is becoming someone that no one wants to go up against. Verse currently leads the NFL with a 23% pressure percentage and ranks 9th in total pressures with 27 for a pass rush that ranks No. 1 in Total Points Per Play. 

    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 13
    2. Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix 10

    Top 10 list

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. George Pickens 8
    2. DK Metcalf 7
    3. Darnell Mooney, Alec Pierce, Justin Jefferson 6

    Top 10 list

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Jordan Mason 393
    2. Derrick Henry 377
    3. Najee Harris 356
    4. Josh Jacobs 339
    5. Saquon Barkley 324

    Top 10 list

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 38
    2. Trey Hendrickson 34
    3. Zach Allen 33
    4. Will McDonald IV 32
    5. Nick Bosa 31

    Top 10 list

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.5
    2. Zach Allen 12.0
    3. Trey Hendrickson 11.2
    4. Chris Jones 9.6
    5. Will McDonald IV 9.0

    Top 10 list

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are four we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    *There are great matchups between the Bears and Commanders on Sunday. Washington ranks No. 4 in Passing, No. 10 in Receiving, and No. 2 in Rushing, but the Bears are formidable, at No. 3 in Pass Rush, No. 7 in Pass Coverage, and No. 12 in Rush Defense.

    * The Eagles need to get to Joe Burrow with their advantage in Pass Rush. They rank No. 2 there and the Bengals rank No. 24 in Blocking. If they don’t, the Bengals will likely take advantage of their ranking No. 2 in Passing and No. 6 in Receiving, against an Eagles group that ranks No. 26 in Pass Coverage. 

    * Falcons QB Kirk Cousins could be primed for another big day. The Buccaneers rank No. 24 in Pass Rush and No. 31 in Pass Coverage.

    * Chiefs-Raiders could get pretty ugly. Among the seven team units we calculate Total Points Per Play for, the Chiefs’ average ranking is 10th. The Raiders’ average ranking is 25th. The Raiders are a bottom-three team in Rushing, Blocking, and Pass Coverage.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

    Please let us know if you have any feedback on these info packages. You can contact me at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com.
  • Looking For Hope in The Ravens … But Will We Find It?

    Looking For Hope in The Ravens … But Will We Find It?

    The NFL is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, and Lamar Jackson winning the MVP in 2019 feels like it was forever ago. Three NFL seasons is a lifetime for most players, and since then, Jackson has finished 17th, 21st, and 20th in passing EPA/play. That was more than enough to get former offensive coordinator Greg Roman fired, and lots of people, myself included, were bullish on his successor, Todd Monken. And through three games, the results have been middling. 

    Lamar ranks 16th in passing Total Points/play after finishing in the bottom half three years running, and the Ravens rank 13th in offensive EPA/play (-0.04). In short, the new-look Baltimore offense hasn’t looked quite as good as we thought it would coming into the year.

    If you’re a fan of Lamar, it was easy to get excited about the offense this year, even beyond the coordinator change. The receiving group, on paper, is the best it’s been in years. They used a first round pick on Boston College WR Zay Flowers, and they brought a still-effective Odell Beckham, Jr. into the fold. But, this group has been beset by injuries.

    Tight end Mark Andrews missed Week 1 with a quad injury, and now Rashod Bateman and Beckham are dealing with hamstring and ankle injuries, respectively. The team has averaged 0.15 EPA/play with all four of them on the field, but they’ve played just 13 snaps together so far. And at the end of the day, the Ravens receiving corps hasn’t performed as well to start as last year’s rendition did, as they rank 25th in receiving Total Points/play in contrast to a 2022 unit that ranked 2nd through Week 3.

    Lamar also ranked 6th in passing Total Points/play during that span, so this year’s start shouldn’t seem as meaningful as it maybe does, especially in light of the injury issues they’re having. The offensive design is better than it was last year, but that’s a low bar and there are still a few spacing issues in the passing game from time-to-time. Furthermore, this is still not a particularly balanced offense.

    They are balanced in the traditional sense that they skew closer towards a 50/50 run-pass split than most NFL offenses, but that’s generally suboptimal and their hit chart (essentially, what part of the field the ball goes to) is eerily similar to last year’s. In 2022, about 40% of their plays were outside runs; this year, that number is 41%. 35% of their plays last year were short passes (under 10 yards); it’s about a third of plays this year. In both 2022 and 2023 thus far, only 5% of their plays have been passes to the intermediate area of the field. The nuts and bolts – the X’s and O’s – have changed, as have the players who represent them, but philosophically, it’s the same stuff.

    Hit 2022 2023
    Outside Run 40% 41%
    Inside Run 14% 16%
    Short Outside 14% 13%
    Short Middle 21% 20%
    Intermediate 5% 5%
    Deep Middle 4% 2%
    Deep Outside 2% 3%

    Arguably the biggest manifestation of the changes thus far is that Lamar is getting the ball out a lot faster this year than he was last year. His average snap to throw time has dropped nearly a full half-second, and his Expected Snap to Throw +/- is hovering at around league average – that is, he’s getting the ball out more or less when he’s supposed to, per the design of the play. Not Tom Brady fast, not Bryce Young slow, and that’s fine!

    But, that’s what’s so unsettling about all this. The story of the Baltimore offense the past four years has been the story of Lamar Jackson. They have, more or less, only gotten as far as he’s been able to drag them. There have been systemic improvements so far, but this isn’t a unit reborn. 

    It feels like we’ve been here before with the Ravens. In reality, there’s no place for – I don’t know if you could even call it this – superstition in quantitative football analysis, but it just seems like we’re approaching boy-who-cried-wolf territory in regards to hyping the Baltimore offense. Even if the coordinator change proves to be little more than addition by subtraction, I am hopeful that the skill players can get healthy and that these small improvements are enough to allow Lamar to regain his MVP form. The Ravens face a big test this weekend in a Browns unit led by an absolute monster, as well as the No. 1 defense that features an early DPOY favorite in Myles Garrett. An offseason of excitement has been tempered by reality, as reality often does, but an impressive road performance against a divisional rival that allows -0.37 EPA/play on defense would be a dream come true.

  • Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

    Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

    Photo: Ian Johnson and Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

    Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other: 

    • The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
    • The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

    Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. 

    When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

    This week, we flipped sides, with Alex and James providing their scouting insights while Bryce and Matt assumed the mantle of the nerds. With quarterbacks, it was easy for everyone to agree on the No. 1 guy, but there were some differences of opinion along the way.

    Scouts’ Opinion Statistical Analysis
    1. Patrick Mahomes 1. Patrick Mahomes
    2. Joe Burrow 2. Justin Herbert
    3. Josh Allen 3. Josh Allen
    4. Jalen Hurts 4. Aaron Rodgers
    5. Justin Herbert 5. Jalen Hurts
    6. Trevor Lawrence 6. Joe Burrow
    7. Aaron Rodgers 7. Tua Tagovailoa
    8. Lamar Jackson 8. Dak Prescott
    9. Dak Prescott 9. Kirk Cousins
    10. Russell Wilson 10. Derek Carr

    The Stats List Methodology

    The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s per-snap performance in Total Points, with their most recent season having a weight of 3, the second-most recent having a weight of 2, and their third-most recent having a weight of 1.

    Total Points arguably evaluates quarterback performance better than any other position, if only because there is an abundance of data points related to quarterback play that factor into it.

    Matt and Bryce initially thought to blend it with a second weighted EPA model that incorporated variables like Expected On-Target +/- (xOnTgt+/-) and throw depth, but concerns about historical sample with respect to xOnTgt+/- ultimately led them to decide that keeping it simple was best.

    It should also be noted that this methodology was not limited to Passing Total Points; Rushing Total Points is equally factored in, and that is reflected in the placement of players like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, both of whom have been extremely productive on the ground.

    What the Stats Showed

    As Matt noted, it would have been difficult to tweak the model in a way to dethrone Patrick Mahomes.

    “In terms of Z-scores, the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the second-ranked player, Justin Herbert, was bigger than the difference between Herbert and Derek Carr [the 10th-ranked player],” Matt said, “Mahomes was two standard deviations above average; the next-highest Z-score was Herbert, who was a little over one standard deviation above average.” 

    After a clear tier break, Herbert and Allen rounded out the top three, being the two of the remaining three players on the list to have ranked in the top 10 in Passing Total Points/play each of the last two years. (Herbert ranked 6th and 1st in 2022 and 2021, respectively; with Allen ranking 10th and 8th.)

    Allen’s rushing also proved to be a windfall for him, with Bryce pointing out that, in 2022, the Bills generated 11 EPA on running plays, with Allen himself accounting for 33 rushing EPA.

    Dak Prescott also ranked in the Top 10 in Passing Points/snap each of the past two years, but missed most of 2020 with an injury. Another player whose 2020 hurt them a bit in the stats ranking was Joe Burrow, whose ill-fated rookie season dampened his placement, despite performing well each of the past two years. 

    Following Burrow was Tua Tagovailoa, whose extremely efficient Year 3 with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill was enough to propel him into the Top 10, despite not ranking in the Top 20 in Passing Total Points in either of his first two seasons in the league.

    What the Scouts Thought

    The scouts’ list likewise featured Patrick Mahomes at No. 1 and Josh Allen at No. 3, but Alex and James opted to place Burrow second rather than Herbert.

    Their reasoning?

    “Burrow just has that ‘It’ factor and has produced more results at this point than Herbert,” James said, “He went into Kansas City and beat Patrick Mahomes, which is something Herbert hasn’t done yet, and there’s something to be said for that.”

    After that, there was a tier break with Jalen Hurts and the aforementioned Herbert placed at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively. The scouts expressed a bit of apprehension about Hurts simply because the Philadelphia offense was an extremely good fit for him last year, but still asserted that his leadership, his running ability, and his deep ball are reasons to be optimistic about him moving forward.

    The scouts also included Trevor Lawrence (No. 6), Lamar Jackson (No. 8), and Russell Wilson (No. 10) in their list, despite all of them having bad statistical years at some point within the last three seasons. James was bullish on Lawrence’s prospects moving forward, citing his arm talent, his mobility, and his command of the offense in Year 2 as very positive signs. Jackson was given the benefit of the doubt with respect to his injuries and the supporting cast around him the last few seasons, and Wilson likewise got a pass for a dysfunctional first year in Denver, but the scouts did note that he’s likely past his prime.

    Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

  • Can’t We Just Celebrate Lamar Jackson’s Excellence?

    Can’t We Just Celebrate Lamar Jackson’s Excellence?

    By BRYCE ROSSLER

    “The league will figure him out this year.”

    That was how anonymous league personnel chose to besmirch NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in an ESPN story this past offseason. Of course, this sentiment was as toothless as the shadowy figures who made it, and what was already a disqualifying thought looks even worse with Jackson once again playing at an MVP level. 

    Jackson’s excellence is nothing new, and neither is the ugly reality that black quarterbacks are held to a higher standard than their white counterparts.

    Codified language and dog whistling pervade discussions of Jackson’s game. The notion that he’s just a scrambler could be called a common misconception were it not for the fact that such a label is often deliberate and made in bad faith. Some even refer to Jackson as a ‘running back,’ which is football-illiterate at best and racist at worst.

    If you don’t believe me, consider how differently Jackson’s 2018 classmate Josh Allen has been talked about. Some of the criticism that still dogs the former applied to the latter earlier in his career. Allen was regarded as an inaccurate gunslinger who struggled to read the field and play within structure. 

    In 2021, Allen and Jackson both rank in the top five in both designed QB runs and scrambles, but Allen is worse than Jackson in adjusted time to throw, turnover-worthy play rate, and virtually every accuracy metric.

    And yet, so many were ready to accept that Allen was suddenly good after one (1) Pro Bowl season, despite struggling mightily at both the college and NFL levels until that point. Why, then, do some people continue to levy similar criticisms at a former Heisman winner and NFL MVP?

    Regardless, it would be a disservice to Jackson to focus on one specific player comparison. Through six games, Jackson ranks 2nd among all players in Total Points, 6th in Passing Total Points (5th on a per-play basis), and 5th in Rushing Total Points (and that includes running backs). And while it’s important to note that he’s outdueling many of his peers, he’s also outdoing himself.

    Jackson ranks in the top six in both Passing Total Points and Rushing Total Points.

    The Ravens signal-caller is performing even better than he did during his MVP season. His On-Target +/- rate is +3.4%, which ranks 7th in the league and is up more than a full percentage point from 2019 (+2.3%). 

    For those unfamiliar, that stat measures a quarterback’s accuracy taking into account the difficulty of the throw, including factors like distance, pressure, and coverage.

    Jackson’s turnover-worthy throw rate has slightly increased from 2019 (1.7%) to 2021 (2.1%), and that’s meaningful because that’s a couple potential extra turnovers a season. But he’s still among the ten best in this metric despite having gotten more aggressive about throwing deep and attacking the middle of the field, two danger areas for quarterbacks. His league-leading average depth of target (9.9) is up more than a full yard over 2019, and 59% of his passes have hit in the middle of the field, compared to 56% in 2019. And in case you were wondering, he’s still top ten at protecting the football across all touches if we include fumbles.

    He’s also operating with improved timing. While Jackson’s playstyle will never lend itself to a low adjusted time-to-throw stat, he’s getting the ball out 0.10 seconds faster than he did in 2020, the first year SIS began collecting snap to throw times. The average person rarely ever thinks about time in fractions of a second, but a split second is a long time in a game of inches While Jackson has never really struggled with seeing the field, this could be seen as a sign that he’s processing faster than he did before. 

    Of course, Jackson has never really had a problem playing from the pocket. He ranked 4th in 2019 in Passing Total Points / 60 Snaps from the pocket (13.7) and has continued that trend this year, ranking 5th (14.0).

    So, regardless of what your perception of these baselines was coming into this season, there’s a lot of statistical evidence to support the idea that Jackson, at age 24, is still improving. Furthermore, he’s just generally been more efficient than he was during his MVP campaign. His Passing Total Points / 60 Snaps has improved from 13.1 in 2019 (which ranked 5th) to 15.3 this year (4th).

    Of course, I would be remiss not to mention that he’s still arguably the most dynamic runner in the league. His broken + missed tackle rate of 33% comfortably leads the league by five percentage points, but I don’t want to harp too much on his running ability because Jackson is so much more than just a runner. 

    Jackson is one of the game’s brightest young stars and a legitimate dual-threat who is beating teams with his arm and his legs, both inside and outside of structure. He can hurt you from the pocket or on the move, and he’s a threat on designed runs and scrambles alike. Put simply: he’s damn hard to stop.

    There. I just figured Lamar Jackson out.

  • World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: New No. 1 & More Movement

    World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: New No. 1 & More Movement

    By MARK SIMON & ALEX VIGDERMAN

    There was some significant movement in our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings as the 2020 NFL regular season concluded.

    One product of our system is that inactivity hurts. As such, Aaron Rodgers did enough in his Week 17 showing to edge past Patrick Mahomes into the No. 1 spot entering the playoffs. Rodgers had closed the gap considerably in Week 16, as Mahomes had his worst game by Points Above Average (PAA) in the last three seasons in the Chiefs’ win over the Falcons.

    Rodgers has been what most quarterbacks have not been–ultra-consistent. He put up 10 straight games with a positive PAA, with his only negative being a -0.3 in Week 17 (in which three dropped interceptions served to counteract his stellar base-level stat line of 19-for-24 with four touchdowns).

    Given that our tracking continues into the postseason, perhaps the debate over the World’s No. 1 Quarterback will get settled in the Super Bowl.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score. The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is PAA, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

    The Mahomes-Rodgers flip wasn’t the only notable change in our rankings. Take a look at our new Top 10:

    1. Aaron Rodgers

    2. Patrick Mahomes

    3. Tom Brady

    4. Deshaun Watson

    5. Josh Allen

    6. Russell Wilson

    7. Derek Carr

    8. Lamar Jackson

    9. Ryan Tannehill

    10. Kirk Cousins

    BestQuarterback_Top10QBs_2020Week17

    Apparently Tom Brady still had something left. After throwing two interceptions in Week 1, Brady ranked 14th, and even after recovering from that, he was still in the No. 9 slot after throwing three interceptions against the Saints in Week 9.

    But Brady got hot at the right time. He had his best and third-best games in the last three weeks of the season. He’s the leader among quarterbacks in PAA since Week 10, nearly nine points ahead of the closest quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

    Much of Brady’s value since Week 10 has stemmed from late-down success. He has the most Points Earned of any quarterback on third and fourth downs in that span, due in part to his six third-down touchdowns, second-most of any quarterback. He was also among the best passers in terms of air yards per completion during that run.

    Josh Allen’s ascent to No. 5 is also noteworthy. His career-best game by PAA came in Week 16 against the Patriots, one week after he had a big game against the Broncos. After starting the season as the No. 24 ranked quarterback, Allen moved into the top 10 after the Bills’ win in Week 4 against the Raiders. His only significant step back came when he threw two interceptions in a loss to the Cardinals, which dropped him from No. 7 to No. 10. But since Week 13, he’s had the fourth-highest PAA total of any quarterback. His leap to elite status will be tested this postseason.

    Lamar Jackson took a circuitous route to his current No. 8 ranking. He started the season as the No. 6 quarterback, bumped to No. 4 after a big game against the Browns in Week 1. Then came a decrescendo including two of the worst games of the season, when he scored -16 PAA against the Bengals and -14 PAA against the Steelers. Jackson slipped all the way to No. 18 before making a steady climb. He’s held the No. 8 spot the last two weeks.

    Jackson has been better with both the run and the pass during the Ravens’ five-game winning streak.

    First 10 Games

    Last 5 Games

    Comp Pct

    63%

    67%

    TD-Int

    15-6

    11-3

    Sacks

    24

    5

    Rush Yards Per Game

    57.5

    86

    The most prominent drop in the rankings is Russell Wilson’s.

    Wilson is often viewed as a Top-3 quarterback but has now slipped to No. 6 overall.

    He started the season with seven straight games with a non-negative PAA. But he had five negative-PAA games in his last nine games. He finished the regular season with 13 interceptions and also hurt his rating with a pair of multi-fumble games in those last nine contests.

    Here are the full rankings through the final week of the regular season.

    Rk Player PAA per 60 Last Rk Start Of Season
    1 Aaron Rodgers 7.2 2 2
    2 Patrick Mahomes 7.1 1 1
    3 Tom Brady 5.4 4 11
    4 Deshaun Watson 5.3 3 14
    5 Josh Allen 4.1 7 24
    6 Russell Wilson 3.9 5 3
    7 Derek Carr 3.0 6 5
    8 Lamar Jackson 2.9 8 6
    9 Ryan Tannehill 2.5 11 23
    10 Kirk Cousins 2.4 10 8
    11 Matt Ryan 2.4 12 10
    12 Drew Brees 2.1 9 4
    13 Justin Herbert 1.9 14 N/A
    14 Philip Rivers 1.9 13 12
    15 Matthew Stafford 0.9 16 16
    16 Kyler Murray 0.6 15 17
    17 Baker Mayfield 0.4 17 35
    18 Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.0 19 13
    19 Dak Prescott 0.0 20 7
    20 Taysom Hill -0.4 21 18
    21 Teddy Bridgewater -0.7 18 22
    22 Jacoby Brissett -0.8 22 9
    23 Jared Goff -1.1 23 15
    24 Cam Newton -1.2 27 28
    25 Joe Burrow -1.5 24 N/A
    26 Jimmy Garoppolo -1.8 26 20
    27 John Wolford -1.9 N/A N/A
    28 Drew Lock -2.1 36 53
    29 Chad Henne -2.2 N/A N/A
    30 Marcus Mariota -2.2 28 40
    31 Mason Rudolph -2.4 58 66
    32 Matt Moore -2.4 30 25
    33 C.J. Beathard -2.4 61 54
    34 Gardner Minshew -2.4 31 41
    35 Jeff Driskel -2.5 32 31
    36 Chase Daniel -2.6 33 26
    37 Brett Hundley -2.6 34 32
    38 Matt Schaub -2.6 35 33
    39 Blake Bortles -2.6 37 34
    40 Tua Tagovailoa -2.6 25 N/A
    41 Blaine Gabbert -2.7 38 60
    42 DeShone Kizer -2.7 42 49
    43 Andy Dalton -2.7 29 57
    44 Sean Mannion -2.7 43 51
    45 Joe Webb -2.7 44 59
    46 Joshua Dobbs -2.7 45 52
    47 Josh McCown -2.7 46 55
    48 Ben Roethlisberger -2.7 47 36
    49 AJ McCarron -2.8 51 58
    50 Jameis Winston -2.8 52 30
    51 Kyle Allen -2.8 53 76
    52 Matt Barkley -2.8 54 64
    53 Garrett Gilbert -2.8 55 N/A
    54 Taylor Heinicke -2.8 56 72
    55 Nate Sudfeld -2.9 41 44
    56 Nathan Peterman -2.9 57 77
    57 Tyrod Taylor -2.9 59 63
    58 Case Keenum -2.9 60 38
    59 Colt McCoy -3.0 62 71
    60 David Blough -3.0 63 43
    61 Chris Streveler -3.0 N/A N/A
    62 Devlin Hodges -3.0 65 70
    63 Joe Flacco -3.1 64 62
    64 Brian Hoyer -3.1 66 69
    65 Brett Rypien -3.3 69 N/A
    66 Robert Griffin III -3.3 70 61
    67 Phillip Walker -3.3 49 N/A
    68 Jarrett Stidham -3.3 67 N/A
    69 Jalen Hurts -3.4 68 N/A
    70 Ben DiNucci -3.4 71 N/A
    71 Josh Rosen -3.5 72 78
    72 Nick Mullens -3.5 73 37
    73 Daniel Jones -3.5 77 73
    74 Kendall Hinton -3.6 74 N/A
    75 Will Grier -3.6 75 79
    76 Alex Smith -3.7 76 21
    77 Mike Glennon -3.8 79 39
    78 Brandon Allen -3.9 50 67
    79 Nick Foles -3.9 78 27
    80 Ryan Finley -4.4 80 80
    81 Dwayne Haskins -4.4 81 29
    82 Jake Luton -4.7 82 N/A
    83 Mitchell Trubisky -4.8 83 68
    84 Carson Wentz -5.0 84 19
    85 Sam Darnold -5.7 85 42