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Author: James Weaver

  • Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 NFL Cornerbacks

    Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 NFL Cornerbacks

    Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other: 

    • The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
    • The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

    Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. 

    When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

    So, without further ado, let’s get to these ‘Best Cornerbacks in the NFL’ lists and then do a deep dive on why each group ranked as it did.

    Scouts’ Opinion Statistical Analysis
    1. Pat Surtain II 1. Sauce Gardner
    2. Jalen Ramsey 2. Tyson Campbell
    3. Jaire Alexander 3. Jalen Ramsey
    4. Sauce Gardner 4. Pat Surtain II
    5. Darius Slay 5. Tariq Woolen
    6. Tre’Davious White 6. Jaire Alexander
    7. Marshon Lattimore 7. J.C. Jackson
    8. Xavien Howard 8. Michael Jackson Sr.
    9. Denzel Ward 9. L’Jarius Sneed
    10. A.J. Terrell 10. Michael Davis

    The Stats List Methodology

    The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

    • 30% Pass Coverage Total Points
    • 5% Pass Rush Total Points
    • 10% Run Defense Total Points
    • 10% Positive % Allowed vs. Man Coverage
    • 10% Hand-On-Ball %
    • 10% Deserved Catch Allowed %
    • 5% Press Coverage %
    • 5% Slot Corner %
    • 5% Broken+Missed Tackle Allowed %
    • 5% Penalties
    • 5% YAC Per Completion Allowed

    Once again, the stats team leans heavily into Total Points. This catch-all metric incorporates many of the elements that we would care about when evaluating a player’s performance. In this case, Pass Coverage Total Points takes the higher weight due to the nature of what cornerbacks are asked to do.

    Run defense and pass rush are also included in order to favor those with specific skill sets that add to a team’s value. Obviously these two are not the usual attributes first thought of when evaluating cornerback play, but a sneaky corner blitzer like L’Jarius Sneed or an ultra-aggressive run defender in Jalen Ramsey add value to a team with these skills.

    The stats team also wanted to give credit to corners who line up in press coverage more often as well as those who line up on the outside rather than in the slot (a smaller slot corner % value). A player who lines up in press usually has the skill and trust from the coaching staff to go 1-on-1 with their counterpart on the offensive side of the ball with minimal help. With the better receivers usually lining up on the outside, we credited those corners who line up on the outside more often than in the slot.

    The other 10% weights—positive % allowed vs. man coverage, hand on-ball %, and deserved catch %—all break down an individual player’s performance when the spotlight is on them. Positive % vs. man is the percentage of positive plays (EPA > 0) a corner allows when they are in man coverage. Hand on-ball % is the percentage of time a player has an interception, a pass deflected, a pass tipped, a forced fumble, or a fumble recovery. Deserved catch % is the percentage of time a corner allows a catch or a drop on a catchable throw, so a lower number is better here.

    The rest of the weights include broken and missed tackles allowed, yards after catch per completion allowed, and penalties. Gauging whether or not a player is disciplined and a sure tackler are standard staples on defense.

    What the Stats Showed

    4 out of the top 5 players on the stats list came in the Top 5 in Pass Coverage Total Points. Tariq Woolen was the only one who didn’t, but he was the best in the Top 10 in press coverage % and was 1st among all corners in deserved catch %. Both he and Sauce Gardner benefit from having massive rookie seasons, as they have less baggage clinging to them in what they have allowed.

    Tyson Campbell ranked No.2 on the stats list while he didn’t make the Scouts Top 10 list. His stats across the board ranked highly among Top 10 players such as 4th overall in Pass Coverage Total Points and 7th overall in Run Defense Total Points. He also ranked the best among Top 10 players in slot corner %, meaning his production came on the outside.

    J.C. Jackson was No. 7 on the stats list solely because of his 2020 and 2021 seasons with the Patriots. He has the same rank in Pass Coverage Total Points, has the 2nd-best press coverage rank among those in the Top 10, and is 3rd overall in hand-on-ball %. However, allowing 16 yards per target in 2022 is less than ideal. He will have to get back to his previous standards this year after being benched and suffering an injury last season.

    What the Scouts Thought

    Pat Surtain II was their best corner in the league. Surtain’s NFL pedigree came from his father, Pat Surtain Sr., and the younger Surtain has surpassed his father by being more physical and having the ability to punish a receiver throughout the game. Those coupled with his size, strength, and speed make him No. 1 on their list.

    A big difference between the stats and scouts list was the ranking of Darius Slay. The scouts had him No. 5, but the stats list had him No. 63! “When he is on, he is dangerous,” Matt said of Slay. Matt adds, “I think he earns every bit of the money he earns in Philadelphia.” The stats had him a lot lower, as he ranked 73rd in Pass Coverage Total Points. 

    Further along, Bryce discussed why Tre’Davious White ranked No. 6: “Maybe feisty is the word, but he is definitely one of the more physical guys even with his size.” 

    Matt also liked the play of Xavien Howard as the 8th best cornerback on the scouts list. He still believes that he is a top corner despite fighting through an injury.

    “This is somebody who, going into last year, would have been at the very top of this list for me,” Matt said. “I think that he is an interesting case study for the volatility of corners,”

    Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

  • Study: Where does “NFL-Ready” talent come from in the NFL Draft?

    Study: Where does “NFL-Ready” talent come from in the NFL Draft?

    Everyone has heard the term “NFL-Ready” prospect. These are players who are deemed to have the skills, talent, and football IQ to make an immediate impact when their time comes to take the field. This opportunity usually comes sooner rather than later for these types of players, but some situations arise where they still have to wait their turn (looking at you, Patrick).

    In trying to quantify this immediate production, we looked at a player’s draft position to see if there were any significant differences in their Total Points production in their first handful of games. Are these immediate impact players all taken early, or are there more to be found in later rounds? We try to answer this question here with our company’s favorite stat, Total Points.

    Methodology

    Going back to the 2016 NFL Draft, we looked at players who have played in at least 4 games and played at least 40 snaps in their first 4 games. We then took the average Total Points value of those first 4 games for each relevant category (e.g. Receiving Total Points for WR). After accumulating the player averages, we then took the overall average at each position based on if that player was selected in the first round or not and if a player was taken in the early rounds (1, 2, or 3) or the late rounds (4, 5, 6, 7, or undrafted).

    Once the averages were taken, we used a Standard T-Test, Welch T-Test, or a Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test to compare the averages and test whether or not first round or early round players have a higher average compared to their counterparts. The test used was decided based on whether or not the data subsets were normal based on a Shapiro-Wilk test. If the data subset was normal, we used a version of a T-Test. If not, we used the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The type of T-Test was determined by whether or not the two data subsets shared the same variance (Standard or Welch).

    In each case, we are testing the null hypothesis that the Total Points means between each group are equal to each other. If the test yields a p-value less than 0.01, our alpha level, then we reject that the null hypothesis is true. In the tables below, you will find whether or not the test was found to be significant (p-value less than 0.01) and the average Total Points per game value of each group that was compared.

    This is not a test of the complete performance of a player’s career, but rather the chance of having an immediate impact once they get their opportunity. 

    Enough stat talk, let’s dive into some of the results!

    Quarterbacks

    Total Points Category Draft Groups Significant? First/

    Early Round

    Mean

    		 Other/

    Late Round Mean
    Passer Points First Round/

    Not First Round

    		 No 2.50 1.16
    Passer Points Early Round/

    Late Round

    		 No 2.11 1.20

    Analyzing Passer Total Points among quarterbacks, we see that we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the means of a quarterback’s first 4 games are the same regardless of how we split players up. Even though the means look different, we cannot statistically infer that the compared populations have different average production.

    Consider this when a quarterback makes his first start. Regardless of the round selected, quarterbacks have produced right away from all rounds within the draft. The Top 3 quarterback Passer Total Points averages come from Patrick Mahomes (1st Round, 10.2), Dak Prescott (4th Round, 9.5), and Cody Kessler (3rd Round, 7.9). Immediate production from the signal caller can be found at any point throughout the draft.

    Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

    Position Total Points Category Draft Groups Significant? First/

    Early Round Mean

    		 Other/

    Late Round Mean
    WR Receiver Points First Round/

    Not First Round

    		 Yes 0.92 0.16
    WR Receiver Points Early Round/

    Late Round

    		 Yes 0.51 0.08
    TE Run Block Points First Round/

    Not First Round

    		 No 0.34 0.25
    TE Run Block Points Early Round/

    Late Round

    		 No 0.26 0.25
    TE Receiver Points First Round/

    Not First Round

    		 Yes 0.53 0.09
    TE Receiver Points Early Round/

    Late Round

    		 Yes 0.30 0.03

     

    For both wide receivers and tight ends, Receiving Total Points shows a significant difference in both tests favoring the first/early rounds. 

    Among receivers, Terry McLaurin (1st Round, 4.30), Will Fuller V (1st Round, 2.69), Justin Jefferson (1st Round, 2.40), Marquise Brown (1st Round, 2.16), and Ja’Marr Chase (1st Round, 2.06) all come in the Top 5 for Receiving Total Points. No shortage of top end talent and pedigree for sure.

    The Top 3 tight ends in Greg Dulcich (3rd Round, 1.38), Gerald Everett (2nd Round, 1.31), and Kyle Pitts (1st Round, 1.28) all came in the early rounds as well. Run Blocking Total Points from a tight end perspective are not statistically different from one another depending on when they were selected. 

    Defense

    When comparing the first to the other rounds, every defensive position and relevant Total Points Category is statistically significantly better. This suggests that defensive talent that is taken in the first round has a higher impact when it takes the field in its first 4 games than a player that is taken later. When comparing the early and late rounds, there were several other positions with Total Points categories that were significant, but the more consistent effect was found in the first and other round comparisons.

    Furthermore, below is a table of the players with the highest impact of each position at the most relevant Total Points Category. All of these players come from either the first or second round.

    Position Player Total Points Category Total Points Value Round Drafted
    DT Derrick Brown Run Defense 1.44 1st
    DE Nick Bosa Pass Rush 3.07 1st
    LB Devin Bush Run Defense 1.67 1st
    DB Asante Samuel Jr. Pass Coverage 6.11 2nd

    Other Positions

    The two positions not covered above, running backs and offensive linemen, yielded different results. There was no Total Points category that showed a significant difference for running backs when considering Rushing and Receiving Total Points. On the other hand, both Pass Block and Run Block Total Points showed significant differences in both group types for offensive linemen.

    Conclusion

    The TLDR summary of this study would be: The idea that early draft picks outperform late picks in the receiving game from the jump is interesting, particularly because that hasn’t been the case for passing or rushing.

    All in all, only quarterbacks, running backs, and run blocking tight ends did not show significantly different averages between players selected in the first/early rounds when compared to the other/late rounds. Again, these results suggest performance differences for players playing in their first 4 games. These results do not conclude anything about long-term performance. To put it in fantasy terms, think picking up a receiver on the waiver wire for one week vs. picking a receiver in a rookie draft for a dynasty league.

    Getting early production can come from a lot of different places in the draft. Finding that production is very position dependent, but can also vary among different situations. Consider these findings when building expectations for the new players on your favorite team in what they might be able to accomplish early on in their careers.

  • Study: Combine Measurements and Total Points – Do they Correlate?

    Study: Combine Measurements and Total Points – Do they Correlate?

    After a week of workouts, drills, and interviews, combine week has come to an end and NFL teams are now deep in draft evaluation. Some players have had record-setting performances, while others might have more work to do at their Pro Day to shoot their name up big boards. The data is now there for everyone to analyze, but the question is: 

    What do these combine numbers actually mean?

    There has been a lot of discussion over the past few years as to whether or not combine results translate to a better performance on the field. Does the height, weight, arm length, hand size, 40-yard dash time, number of 225-lb. bench presses, vertical jump measurement, broad jump measurement, 20-yard shuttle run time, or 3-cone drill time of a player truly predict immediate future performance for a 1st- or 2nd-year player in the NFL?

    There have been studies done in the past (here and here) in finding correlations from combine  measurements to draft order, salary, and player performance. In regards to the latter, player performance was measured in total yards, yards in rates, and quarterback rating.

    At SIS, we can use our Total Points metric as the proxy to player performance to find correlations to combine measurements. For the purpose of this article, combine data from players who participated between 2016-2020 was collected and compared to the respective player’s first two-year Total Points sum. Correlations were computed between both Total Points and categorical Total Points (ex. Passing Total Points) based on positions to find any signal for a specific skill. 

    Without any further ado, let’s dive into the numbers…

    Quarterbacks

    When it comes to quarterbacks, it is not a big surprise that Total Points and Passing Total Points are very similar. The main skill the quarterback has to perform is throwing the football, so seeing that these two align for most measurements make sense. 

    Three measurements that stand out from the rest in terms of correlating to Total Points. The broad jump takes the cake as the highest correlated at 0.39 (0.35 Pasing Total Points), followed by the three cone drill at 0.33 (faster times lead to more Total Points) and the 40-yard dash at 0.23.

    Contradicting some of the discourse about quarterback hand-size, this measurement has a 0 correlation to Passer Points. Turns out Kenny Pickett might have a chance after all!

    Running Backs

    When looking strictly at Rushing Total Points, there are three measurements that clear the 0.2 correlation threshold. Weight, vertical jump, and broad jump measurements correlate the most to Rushing Total Points. 

    This suggests that explosiveness and leg strength translate well to the next level and can be a potential indicator of running back performance. Across the board, being bigger and faster correlates with success.

    When it comes to Receiving Total Points, the 40-yard dash and the broad jump correlate the most by far. This suggests that the ‘explosive pass-catcher out of the backfield’ moniker truly does exist.

    Looking at Pass Block Total Points for running backs, the three cone drill and vertical jump seem to predict some success at the next level.

    Wide Receiver

    The vertical jump and bench reps stand out as the two highest correlated measurements to Receiving Total Points. Even though the average Run Blocking Total Points value among receivers is small, height, weight, arm length, and the shuttle run correlate the most out of these measurements when projecting success.

    No measurements for Receiving Total Points reach the 0.2 threshold. One point to note is that pass blocking correlations in height and weight for receivers are much higher than those for the running backs.

    Offensive Linemen

    Pass Blocking and Run Blocking Total Points correlations for offensive linemen are similar for each measurement, with the 40-yard dash, arm length, and height having some difference between the two. Surprisingly, height and arm length seem to correlate more with run blocking than pass blocking.

    Overall, the 40-yard dash, three cone drill, vertical jump, and broad jump are the highest correlations when it comes to offensive line play. Bench reps have a low correlation, once again showing that leg strength and explosiveness predict higher success.

    Tight Ends

    For tight ends, the 40-yard dash and the broad jump have high correlations to Total Points, as they both nearly reach the 0.4 correlation threshold. The vertical jump does not fall that far behind either.

    The difference in broad jump, shuttle times, and three cone times between tight ends and receivers in Receiving Total Points is interesting. The get-off speed for a tight end might result in higher Total Points, which can be measured in explosiveness from the legs.

    Defensive Linemen

    Moving along to defense, we start with the defensive line. All of the speed measurements, height, weight, vertical jump, and broad jump correlate well to Pass Rush Total Points. This is very different when compared to Run Defense Total Points, as the higher the weight and more bench reps, the higher the Total Points value.

    All in all, an athletic freak on the defensive line when getting to the passer seems to be a good thing to have. On run defense, a strongly built defensive linemen is the key for success. The contrast between these two skill sets in one position group is the biggest from this analysis. 

    Linebackers

    Once again, for the linebacker position, athletic freaks tend to have the most success. All but 3 measurements reach the 0.2 correlation threshold for Pass Rush Total Points. After being significant for defensive linemen, the shuttle run and three cone times correlate to 0 and below, respectively, for linebackers. From a run defense perspective, the vertical jump and 40-yard dash times show the strongest correlations. Finally, both the 40-yard dash and shuttle runs are where the highest correlations are for linebacker pass coverage.

    Defensive Backs

    There are no correlations for Pass Coverage Total Points that reach the 0.2 threshold for defensive backs. The 40-yard dash and arm length are the two highest correlations for Pass Coverage Total Points. On run defense, only the 40-yard dash reached the 0.2 threshold. 

    Conclusion

    Overall, there are no correlations that exceed the 0.4 threshold across any position, measurement, and Total Points category. This is consistent with the previous studies that suggest there is no strong correlation between measurements and skill sets. 

    Two measurements that seem to find themselves at the top of most positions were the vertical jump and broad jump. 

    A strong and explosive lower body tends to predict more success, generally speaking, when looking at Total Points. On defense, speed is the key, as 40-yard dash, three cone, and shuttle times were some of the highest correlated measurements for all 3 defensive skills.

    All in all, don’t be fooled by the insane numbers seen at the combine. Yes, some are more meaningful than others, but there is a lot more that factors into having success in the NFL.

  • Which Steelers QB will start Week 1?

    Which Steelers QB will start Week 1?

    After an illustrious 18-year career as the starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger decided to hang up his cleats and move on to bigger and better things. After his elbow surgery in 2019, everyone could tell that he was not the same “Killer B” as he once was.

    In his final year, Roethlisberger was 40th in Total Points Earned Per Pass, 36th in Positive Play Percentage, and 30th in Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) out of 42 quarterbacks who had more than 100 pass attempts in the regular season. 

    As a going-away gift, he has left his predecessor with a low floor to improve the Steelers offense. The question is will that predecessor be Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, or Mitch Trubisky?

    Mason Rudolph

    The 26 year old Mason Rudolph has had four seasons in the Steelers offense to prove that he is more than a backup QB. In 2019 after Roethisberger’s elbow surgery, Rudolph was given the keys to the offense full-time with 10 appearances. Even though he was able to keep the Steelers in the playoff hunt, he was unable to take the offense to the next level and performed as a below-average QB statistically.

    Mason Rudolph

    Metric 2019 (Rk)
    Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt 5.0 (35)
    On-Target % 72.9% (35)
    Independent QB Rating (IQR) 91.8 (25)
    Total Points Earned Per 60 Plays 3.4 (34)
    Positive Pass % 41.9% (35)
    INT % 3.2% (32)

    This season is best remembered for being carried off the field against the Ravens with his facemask sawed off and was involved in an incident with Myles Garrett on the field.

    In 2021, he was given another opportunity with Roethlisberger out due to COVID against the Lions at home. Rudolph was unable to pull out the win in a 16-16 tie against a team with the second worst record in the league. He went 30-50 with 242 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. 

    With the additions of other QBs via free agency and the NFL Draft, it seems as though time has expired for Rudolph’s opportunity.

    Kenny Pickett

    In 2021, Kenny Pickett was able to take full advantage of the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Pickett’s 334 completions, 4,319 passing yards, and 42 TD were all good for Top 10 in the FBS and single season records at Pitt, resulting in an invitation to New York City as a Heisman Finalist. 

    Pickett then cemented his legacy by leading the Pittsburgh Panthers to their first ACC Championship since joining the conference in 2011 and a Peach Bowl appearance. All of his success in his final season as a Panther resulted in him being the 20th overall pick in the NFL Draft by the Steelers. 

    Requiring only a 25-step walk across the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex to his new home, how big of a step will Pickett actually have to take to win the starting job? 

    Kenny Pickett

    Metric 2019 (Rk) 2020 (Rk) 2021 (Rk)
    Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt 5.5 (125) 6.1 (72) 8.8 (10) 
    On-Target % 76.6% (28)  80.0% (14) 78.1% (23)
    Independent QB Rating (IQR) 92.3 (95) 94.7 (66) 125.6 (7)
    Total Points Earned Per 60 Plays 13.3 (58) 11.5 (51) 15.4 (19)
    Positive Pass % 40.6% (114) 44.2% (68) 50.6% (10)
    INT % 1.9% (53) 2.7% (76) 1.4% (18)

    Over his final 3 seasons at Pitt, Pickett was able to improve in many key areas that led to the Panthers success offensively. Importantly, Pickett was able to reduce his Interception Percentage from 2020 to 2021, which he will need to keep low if he wants to win the starting job in Week 1.

    Pickett was able to produce these numbers with Pitt offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s pro-style offense, where the Panthers ran 12 Personnel 38% of the time. His familiarity with a pro-style offense as well as Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada (who recruited Pickett at Pitt) is a positive when factoring in the time required to learn the Steelers offense. 

    If Pickett is able to build on his knowledge of the offense, continue to limit turnovers, and improve his accuracy in the Steelers offensive scheme, he will certainly be on the fast track to the starting job in 2022.

    Mitch Trubisky

    In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears traded up to the 2nd overall pick to draft Mitch Trubisky. At the time, Trubisky was considered the top QB prospect in the draft after a prolific career at North Carolina. His best season with the Bears was in 2018, where he amassed 289 completions, 3,223 yards, and 24 TD. This performance helped earn the Bears an NFC North crown. 

    Unfortunately, he was unable to regain the success that he had in 2018 and only led the Bears to one more Wild Card round appearance.

    Mitch Trubisky

    Metric 2018 (Rk) 2019 (Rk) 2020 (Rk)
    Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt 6.6 (16) 5.0 (36) 6.0 (27)
    On-Target % 75.3% (33) 75.0% (24) 75.0% (34)
    Independent QB Rating (IQR) 95.2 (24) 81.2 (38) 87.4 (32)
    Total Points Earned Per 60 Plays 5.0 (31) 2.1 (39) -1.4 (40)
    Positive Pass % 49.8% (14) 43.1% (30) 53.0% (6)
    INT % 2.8% (29) 1.9% (19) 2.7% (32)

    Even though the Bears made the playoffs in 2020, Trubisky was again below-average in his final season as the starter. He was 40th in WAR out of 44 QBs with a minimum 100 passing attempts in the regular season. Additionally, his Interception Percentage spiked back up to 2.7%. 

    Unable to take the Bears offense to the next level, the Bears declined his 5th-year option and Trubisky then signed with the Bills to be their backup.

    In Buffalo, Trubisky only played in 4 games behind MVP candidate Josh Allen. However, he was able to sit and learn in an offense that resulted in 4,284 Net Passing Yards, a 47.5% Positive Pass rate, and 11.5 Total Points Per 60 Plays, all good for Top 10 in the NFL.

    Trubisky’s experience and opportunity to reset behind a successful offense may prove to be the main factor that can land him the starting job Week 1.

    Conclusion

    In OTAs, it was apparent that Trubisky was taking the majority of first team reps, followed by Rudolph then Pickett. When it comes to rookies, Tomlin has historically made every one of them earn their stripes by putting in the grunt work in the offseason. Therefore, Pickett taking the third-team reps comes as no surprise early on. 

    Expect this to be a true battle between Trubisky and Pickett for the starting job in the offseason. Pickett coming in at the age of 24 and running a pro-style system already puts him in a good spot to compete for the job with the experienced Trubisky. 

    Whichever QB can make the least amount of mistakes and make the correct decisions in Matt Canada’s RPO/Play-Action scheme will win the job Week 1.