Category: 2025 MLB

Stat of the Week: Our Year-End Awards

It’s been a tradition here to bestow awards on some year-end leaders in stats that only we track. A few years ago, we refreshed the list of leaders and I’m doing so again this year to give us an entirely defensive theme.

Here are the award winners for 2025.

The Homer Robber Award

The title of this award speaks for itself. This one goes to the leader in home run robbing catches for 2025, which was Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. with 4 (here’s one example).

This was a prolific season for home run robbing catches. There were 88 in 2025, easily surpassing the 78 of 2024 for the most in any season since we began fully tracking them in 2004.

Most Home Run Robbing Catches – 2025 Season

Player	Good Fielding Plays
Joey Ortiz	20
Bryson Stott	20
Ke’Bryan Hayes	19
Ryan McMahon	18
Brayan Rocchio	18

The Who Needs A Glove Award?

This award goes to the player with the most successful barehand plays. This works better if we separate this by catchers, third basemen, and others. Catchers are often fielding barehands that have come to a stop and that are right in front of the plate. Patrick Bailey led the position with 15, two more than Cal Raleigh.

Third basemen get the most barehand opportunities, which is why its best to separate them from other fielders too. This award could have been named for Nolan Arenado, who annually ranked as a leader in the prime of his career. But among third basemen this year, Alex Bregman of the Red Sox actually led with 13 successful plays, two more than Ke’Bryan Hayes and Maikel Garcia. Arenado finished with 10, fourth-most among third basemen.

The leader among those who don’t play third base or catcher was Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo, who had 6 (this one in particular was pretty good).

Most Barehand Plays – 2025 Season

Player	Barehand Plays
Patrick Bailey	15
Cal Raleigh	13
Alex Bregman	13
Elias Diaz	12
Drake Baldwin	11
Ke’Bryan Hayes	11
William Contreras	11
Maikel Garcia	11

The Vacuum Cleaner Award

SIS Video Scouts also track what are known as “Good Fielding Plays,” which are often those that lead to the unlikely recording of an out. Those can be broken up into different subtypes, including one just for ground balls. The leader in Good Fielding Plays on ground balls is the winner of our Vacuum Cleaner Award.

This year’s winners were Brewers shortstop Joey Ortiz and Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott. Ortiz finished with -2 Runs Saved in his first full time season there as a major leaguer and Stott totaled 0 at second base, as making lots of Good Fielding Plays doesn’t necessarily translate to a high Runs Saved total. Stott’s issue wasn’t range. He had -6 Runs Saved from the Phillies’ difficulty turning double plays.

Nonetheless, both had their share of Web Gem-caliber highlight-reel moments (one example from Ortiz, one from Stott).

Most Good Fielding Plays – Ground Balls

Player	Good Fielding Plays
Joey Ortiz	20
Bryson Stott	20
Ke’Bryan Hayes	19
Ryan McMahon	18
Brayan Rocchio	18

The Fly Swatter Award

The Fly Swatter Award is a similar award to The Vacuum Cleaner, except it’s for Good Fielding Plays resulting in outs on fly balls and line drives. The leaders were Tigers left fielder Riley Greene and Twins/Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader with 19 apiece.

Greene, the 2024 Fielding Bible Award winner in left field, slipped to -5 Runs Saved in 2025, though his primary issue was not catching balls (here’s one he ran down) but rather baserunner advancement on balls he fielded. Bader is one of the top defensive players in this year’s free agent class.

Most Good Fielding Plays – Fly Balls

Player	Good Fielding Plays
Riley Greene	19
Harrison Bader	19
Victor Scott II	17
Nathan Lukes	17
Brenton Doyle	16
Lawrence Butler	16

Stolen Base Stopper

The awards for the Stolen Base Stopper go to the catcher and pitcher who had the most Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2025.

Red Sox catcher Carlos Narváez had 7 Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2025, most among all catchers. Narvaez threw out 25 of 100 runners attempting to steal and also had 3 pickoffs. You could also make a case for Luis Torrens, who had 6 Stolen Base Runs Saved and threw out 20 of 49 basestealers (41%).

For pitchers, Matthew Boyd led the way with 5 Stolen Base Runs Saved. Boyd had 8 pickoffs and 3 pitcher caught stealings. His 11 combined pickoffs and caught stealing were easily the most in MLB.

The Hall of Framer

The Hall of Framer award goes to the catcher who had the best pitch-framing numbers in 2025. In our world, that means the catcher who had the most called strikes above expectations (we call this stat Strike Zone Plus-Minus).

Patrick Bailey was the runaway leader in this stat for the second straight year. He finished 120 called strikes above expectations. Austin Wells of the Yankees and Alejandro Kirk of the Blue Jays were a distant second with 79.

Austin Hedges was the leader in this stat on a per-pitch basis. He ranked 4th overall in called strikes above expectations.

Bailey’s leadership in this stat factored into winning a bigger award than this, our Defensive Player of the Year award (which was announced with the Fielding Bible Awards).

To learn more about our pitch-framing methodology, read the paper from our award-winning presentation at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

December 31, 2025

Stat of the Week: Who Were MLB’s Most Underachieving Starting Pitchers in 2025?

It’s kind of scary to think but Garrett Crochet could have been even better than he was in 2025.

Crochet finished the season with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts in 205 1/3 innings pitched. He placed second in the AL Cy Young voting and eighth in the AL MVP voting.

The idea that he could have been better stems from this: Crochet allowed 24 home runs. But by our expected stats measurement tools, he was expected to allow only 18 based on the batted ball type, where the ball was hit and how hard it was hit.

A brief point of explanation:

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and therefore single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats to see if they fared better or worse than perhaps they could have.

Some examples for Crochet include:

A front-row home run to right field at Steinbrenner Field by Rays shortstop Carson Williams (LINK), and front-row shots over the Green Monster in left field by Byron Buxton (LINK) and Amed Rosario (LINK).

Crochet had a .617 OPS against in 2025, which ranked 18th-lowest (minimum 400 batters faced). His expected OPS of .553 was the lowest among that same set of pitchers.

Logan Webb of the Giants experienced something similar with doubles. He allowed 49, 14 more than his expected total. Webb got the worst defensive support on the batted balls against him of any pitcher in baseball. Here’s two examples of balls that could have been caught that turned into doubles (LINK, LINK), both missed by Giants left fielder Heliot Ramos.

Crochet and Webb are two of the headline names on our list of pitchers who underachieved the most in 2025. In this case, we’re defining underachieved as yielding an OPS higher than our stats expected. Another is recent Blue Jays free agent signee Dylan Cease, whom we previously wrote about for the lack of defensive support that the Padres gave him last season. He ranked second to Webb in terms of least defensive support gotten on batted balls.

Here’s the list of pitchers who underachieved by the largest amounts OPS-wise.

Biggest Differential – Actual OPS and Expected OPS in 2025

Minimum 400 Batters Faced

Pitcher	2025 OPS	Expected OPS	Differential
Antonio Senzatela	.949	.855	.094
Aaron Nola	.805	.715	.090
Ben Brown	.800	.734	.066
Ryan Gusto	.805	.741	.064
Garrett Crochet	.617	.553	.064
Dylan Cease	.717	.654	.063
Logan Webb	.694	.631	.063
Jonathan Cannon	.838	.779	.059
Tanner Bibee	.720	.664	.056
Cade Povich	.812	.758	.055

Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies tops this list. He had the worst OPS allowed in MLB (.949) but he wasn’t much better by expected OPS. His .855 was the fourth-highest.

Phillies starter Aaron Nola was right behind Senzatela. He had a 6.01 ERA during the regular season and his .805 OPS against was 15th-highest, but his .715 expected OPS allowed was almost right in the middle of the pool of 135 pitchers (61st-highest). Nola’s season was nowhere near his usual standards, but it also seems like it wasn’t as bad as it looked

Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee’s season also fell into that category. His .720 OPS against was 56 points higher than his expected OPS. The latter, .664, ranked in the 77th percentile among this group of pitchers (31st overall).

Seven of the 10 pitchers on last year’s list of biggest underachievers had lower ERAs in 2025 than they did in 2024, though a couple changed roles and became relievers (Reid Detmers and Chris Flexen).

The biggest ‘hit’ among the 2024 underachievers was Hunter Brown, whose ERA dropped from 3.49 to 2.43, though you could make a case that you could have seen that coming with the way he closed the 2024 season. Others whose ERA improved significantly from 2024 to 2025 were Taijuan Walker and Logan Allen.

As we’ve said with each of these articles, caveats apply. If you’re on the list of underachievers, you’re not guaranteed to be better in 2026. You still have to go out there and inevitably get some outs in difficult situations.

December 17, 2025

Phillies Make A Massive Defensive Upgrade With Adolis García

You likely won’t see a bigger defensive upgrade this offseason than the one the Phillies just made in right field.

The Phillies signed free agent Adolis García to a one-year, $10 million contract. The expectation is that they’ll follow this up by trading or releasing their regular right fielder of the last four years, Nick Castellanos.

By small sample or larger sample, there is no comparison between García and Castellanos defensively.

If we look at last 5 seasonsAdolis García 36 (2nd-most in MLB)Nick Castellanos -51 (fewest)

— Sports Info Solutions (@sportsinfosolutions.com) 2025-12-15T17:39:10.089Z

And that’s even with a rough -5 Runs Season from García in 2024. That appears not to be the norm.

And yes, we know that Castellanos has not made an error in three of the last four seasons but Defensive Runs Saved is a more sophisticated stat than errors. It takes into account what you did and did not reach. It’s easy to avoid making errors when you don’t reach balls. Castellanos had the 9th-worst “jump” stats of any outfielder in baseball last year, as measured by MLB.

In looking at Castellanos’ most-penalized plays last season, there was a mix of issues related to communication (particularly with second baseman Bryson Stott) and hesitation.

* Jump measures how much ground you cover compared to an average outfielder. Castellanos rated 2.4 feet fewer than average.

García’s strength had not necessarily been getting to balls but in 2025 he was better at it than he had ever been before. He had by far the best Range Runs Saved numbers of his career. This was driven by an abundance of nice catches on shallow fly balls. Stott shouldn’t have to feel like he’s got to go for every ball anymore because García has (at least last season) a knack for reaching what needs to be reached.

And how about this for coincidences. One of García’s best catches of the season (at least on a shallow fly ball) came against … Castellanos!

That’s not to say that García doesn’t have flaws. He fared poorly against balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark. But overall he still rated far ahead of Castellanos.

Plays Saved Above Average In 2025 – By Depth

	Shallow	Medium	Deep
García	+15	+8	-5
Castellanos	0	-7	-3

* Plays Saved Above Average = our version of MLB’s Outs Above Average

To put some raw numbers behind it, here are the outs made and opportunities for each fielder on shallow and medium balls.

García: 199/264 (expected to make 176 plays, made 199)

Castellanos: 164/252 (expected to make 171 plays, made 164)

* Opportunities are any ball on which the player has a >0% chance to record an out

Outfield Arm

There is likewise not much of a comparison between García’s arm and Castellanos’ arm. Last season, García had 4 Outfield Arm Runs Saved, Castellanos had -2. García has a history of being consistently good. Castellanos does not.

Outfield Arm Runs Saved – Right Field, Last 5 Seasons

Player	OF Arm Runs Saved	Rank
García	24	1st
Castellanos	-12	Last

To show the raw numbers, again over a longer period of time, we can look at the rate that baserunners advanced an extra base on hits fielded by each player over the last five seasons (meaning how often they went 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on singles, or 1st to home on a double).

Player	Advances – Opportunities	Advance Rate*	Assists without cutoff man
García	170-425	40%	29
Castellanos	281-524	54%	18

* Read this as: “40% of baserunners advanced an extra base on hits against Garcia, 54% did against Castellanos”

Here are three examples of García putting his arm to good use last season.

Defense has been an issue for the Phillies for several years. They haven’t finished in the top half of the majors since 2019. Swapping out Castellanos for García should improve the team’s outfield defense considerably. Castellanos was a fan favorite and did have a great postseason defensively in 2022. But what Castellanos did then, García has done on the regular.

December 16, 2025

Who Were MLB’s Most Overachieving Starting Pitchers in 2025?

You had to figure that when we released our list of the pitchers that overperformed their expected numbers the most in 2025 that Trevor Rogers would be on it.

In 18 starts, the Orioles lefty pitched to a 1.81 ERA and allowed 70 hits in 109 2/3 innings. He did that while striking out less than a batter per inning and with a hard-hit rate that ranked in the 3rd percentile (48%). And his home runs per 9 innings rate was about half his previous career rate.

Rogers’ expected OPS allowed was .503, the third-lowest by any pitcher in the last 10 seasons (minimum 100 innings). His expected OPS allowed was .634.

The 131-point differential between his expected (.634) and allowed (.503) was by far the largest in MLB in 2025 (minimum 400 batters faced, a pool of 135 pitchers).

A brief point of explanation:

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and therefore single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats to see if they fared better or worse than perhaps they could have.

Here’s the list of pitchers with the greatest differential between their expected OPS and their actual OPS. Think of them as a group whose actual 2025 numbers could have been worse under different circumstances.

Biggest Differential – Expected OPS and Actual OPS

2025 Season (Minimum 400 Batters Faced)

Pitcher	Expected OPS Allowed	OPS Allowed	Differential
Trevor Rogers	.634	.503	.131
Noah Cameron	.729	.641	.087
Spencer Schwellenbach	.702	.618	.084
Janson Junk	.767	.686	.081
Nick Pivetta	.663	.583	.080
Jose Quintana	.776	.698	.078
Cade Horton	.692	.615	.077
Mitchell Parker	.873	.797	.076
Grant Holmes	.789	.715	.074
Merrill Kelly	.734	.661	.073

To be clear, a .634 expected OPS is still excellent. It’s just not as great as his actual numbers. Rogers had the lowest actual OPS allowed among these 135 pitchers. He had the 17th-lowest expected OPS. His expected runs allowed of 39 (using Bill James’ Runs Created) would have given him an ERA likely in the low 3s instead of his season-ending 1.81.

With the second pitcher on this list, Royals rookie Noah Cameron, his ERA-FIP differential (2.99 vs 4.18) also gives us a sense that he overperformed in 2025. His actual OPS was 87 points lower than his expected OPS and for where Cameron was, that’s a big difference.

A .641 OPS allowed ranked 25th overall, meaning he was in the top 20% of our pool of pitchers.

A .729 expected OPS allowed ranks 78th, which puts him outside the top half of that group, which makes sense given what his FIP was. He goes from being considered a pretty good pitcher to a below-average one.

Other pitchers in this top 10, such as Spencer Schwellenbach and Cade Horton, experience dips too, though not as extreme as Cameron’s. Schwellenbach goes from 19th-lowest OPS to 48th-lowest expected OPS allowed. Horton goes from 16th to 37th.

Free agent Merrill Kelly actually made our Top 10 list for the second straight season. He’s had an OPS at least 50 points lower than his expected OPS four times in the last six seasons (excluding 2020). Kelly has typically gotten very good defensive support behind him. The Diamondbacks and Rangers have 32 Runs Saved behind him in the last four seasons, 6th-most in MLB.

We can trace the success of many of the pitchers on the list above to the work that defenses did behind them. The Braves had 12 runs saved behind Schwellenbach (5 of those attributable to Schwellenbach, himself) and 11 Runs Saved for Grant Holmes. The Royals had 10 Runs Saved for Cameron. The Brewers had 10 for Jose Quintana.

This article was meant to focus on starting pitchers, but if we lower the qualifier to 250 batters faced to include relievers, the three relievers with the largest differentials were Pirates closer Dennis Santana (expected OPS 122 points higher than actual OPS), Phillies reliever Tanner Banks (103), recent Braves signee Robert Suarez (100), and free agent Shawn Armstrong (100). Suarez had gotten great defensive support from the Padres throughout his career, including 5 Runs Saved (a high total for a reliever) in 2025.

On last year’s list, 7 of the 9 pitchers listed among our biggest overachievers had their ERA increase from 2024 to 2025, 6 by more than a full run (one didn’t pitch, Derek Law). Kelly and Kevin Gausman were the only ones whose ERAs improved. Among those with big ERA increases were David Peterson, Tyler Holton, and Bowden Francis.

That’s not to say what will happen in 2026, but it gives you an indication of some pitchers to keep an eye on heading into next year.

December 12, 2025

Stat of the Week: MLB’s Most Overachieving Hitters in 2025

Baseball isn’t supposed to be as easy as it was for Aaron Judge and Nick Kurtz in 2025. Judge had an OPS of 1.144. Kurtz finished at 1.002. They won the AL MVP and Rookie of the Year, respectively.

For players to put up those kinds of numbers, they need to be great hitters, but they need some things to go their way too.

By our measures, they did.

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, how long they spend in the air, and the speed of the batter, as well as the ballpark in which the ball was hit. Important to note: defensive positioning is NOT taken into account.

This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

Kurtz had an expected OPS of .877, which is terrific. But it’s not as otherworldly as 1.002. The 125-point gap between his actual OPS and expected OPS is the biggest such differential in MLB.

Judge’s gap was 96 points. His expected OPS was still otherworldly at 1.048.

There can be a few reasons why a player exceeds his expected OPS. Defenses had -13 Runs Saved on balls hit by Judge (-6 for Kurtz) which certainly helped him out when he wasn’t hitting balls out of the ballpark. Kurtz also had 22 of his 36 home runs at home in hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, which helped his final stat line.

Here’s a list of the 10 players whose OPS was most above their expected OPS, among those with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.

Biggest Differential, OPS and Expected OPS, 2025 Season

Minimum 300 Plate Appearances

Player	2025 OPS	Expected OPS	Differential
Nick Kurtz	1.002	.877	-.125
Miguel Andujar	.822	.699	-.123
Harrison Bader	.796	.678	-.118
Yandy Díaz	.848	.739	-.109
Aaron Judge	1.144	1.048	-.096
Jake Mangum	.698	.604	-.094
Riley Greene	.806	.717	-.089
Jonathan Aranda	.883	.794	-.089
Jordan Westburg	.770	.684	-.086
Isaac Paredes	.809	.725	-.084

Kurtz and Judge were still superstars by their expected OPS numbers. But that’s not the case for the others on this list. There are a handful of players who – if they had hit at their expected numbers rather than their actual ones – would have had a season perceived differently than their season was.

Miguel Andujar has a little bit of a smaller sample than others (321 at-bats) got hot at the end of the season with the Reds and finished the season with an .822 OPS. The perception of his season would have been completely different had he hit his expected OPS of .699.

Andujar had 23 hits on balls with an expected hit probability below 30%. Those balls should have netted him 5 hits. Instead, they resulted in 23.

Harrison Bader is another good example. Bader finished with an OPS close to .800 but an expected OPS of .678. The .678 was more in line with his 2022, 2023, and 2024 actual OPS.

Bader got particularly hot after being traded from the Twins to the Phillies. He hit .305 in 50 games with the Phillies but had 9 hits more than his expected total (54 instead of 45), which bumped his batting average with them up by 51 points. A bunch of infield hits (examples here, here, and here) were key to that.

Another example of a different nature is Rays DH and first baseman Yandy Díaz, who had 21 hits more than his expected total (no one had more than him and Bader). The actual versus expected OPS differential for Díaz was 109 points, primarily because Díaz hit 25 home runs but had an expected total of only 17.

Of those 25 home runs 18 came in Steinbrenner Field. Díaz took full advantage of right field there with several of his home runs clearing the wall by only a little bit (examples here, here, and here).

Looking back to last year’s list of overachievers, 8 of the 10 had an actual OPS decline from 2024 to 2025 of at least 118 points. Notable names whose performance dipped significantly in 2025 included Connor Wong, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Iglesias, and Carlos Correa.

Player	2024 OPS	2025 OPS
Connor Wong	.758	.500
Tyler O’Neill	.847	.684
Jose Iglesias	.830	.592
Carlos Correa	.905	.734

Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr., superstars similar to Kurtz and Judge, were also in that Top 10 list of 2024 overachievers. Their 2025 numbers didn’t match their 2024 ones but they were still superstars even with the drop in OPS.

Caveats apply when considering any future ramifications here. Just because the players on this list could have been worse in 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be worse in 2026. There are no guarantees in baseball. The wonder of who will overachieve and who will underachieve is one of the things that keeps us watching.

December 2, 2025

Mets Abound on List of MLB’s Most Underachieving Hitters In 2025

There are reports that the Mets are interested in trading utility man Jeff McNeil after their falter, McNeil’s sputter at the finish line last season, and the acquisition of Marcus Semien to play second base.

McNeil, who will turn 34 in early April, went 4-for-46 in the final 15 games of the 2025 season, chopping 52 points from his OPS, which finished the season at .746.

But according to one of our measurement tools, McNeil was a better hitter than his final line appeared.

Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, how long they spend in the air, and the speed of the batter, as well as the ballpark in which the ball was hit.

This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

McNeil finished with a .746 OPS, but his expected OPS by our measures, was .890. The 144-point gap was the largest among players with at least 300 plate appearances last season .

Mets fans are used to seeing McNeil exude frustration after a hard-hit out (this example was a ball with a 71% hit probability).

Here’s the leaderboard for the hitters with the biggest negative differential between their actual and expected OPS, among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.

Player	OPS	Expected OPS	Differential
Jeff McNeil	.746	.890	-.144
Tyrone Taylor	.598	.716	-.118
Tommy Edman	.655	.769	-.114
Andrés Giménez	.598	.708	-.110
Luis Garcia Jr.	.701	.806	-.105
Otto López	.672	.776	-.104
Jo Adell	.778	.869	-.091
Marcus Semien	.669	.753	-.084
Liam Hicks	.693	.776	-.083
Kyle Higashioka	.693	.773	-.080

Perhaps McNeil will take solace in knowing that his constant frustration was justified. McNeil lost a lot of hits on balls with hit probabilities between 40 and 60 percent. He hit 59 such balls, resulting in 29 expected hits. The actual number of hits McNeil got was 17 .

Here are two more examples from that group of outs that induced a McNeil helmet slam and a touch of profanity.

Semien is actually on this list too. His .669 OPS was 84 points lower than his expected OPS. Semien actually made this list for the 2024 season too, finishing with an OPS 82 points below his expected OPS. Over the last two seasons his actual hit total is about 32 hits below his expected hit total. McNeil is the only player to have lost more hits (roughly 34). Semien also had 14 doubles below his expected total, most in MLB.

And there’s yet another Mets player: outfielder Tyrone Taylor, who had a miserable offensive season in 2025, finishing with a .598 OPS. He’d finished with an OPS over .700 in every season from 2021 to 2024 and had his actual numbers matched his expected numbers, he’d have done so again in 2025.

The biggest differential among non-Mets was Tommy Edman, who finished the season with a .655 OPS and a .769 expected OPS. Defenses fared quite well against both Edman and McNeil, recording 12 Defensive Runs Saved against them, which ranked in the Top 15 this season.

Jo Adell had it worse. Defenses had 14 Runs Saved against him, which helps explain why he finished with a .778 OPS and an .869 expected OPS.

In both McNeil’s case and Adell’s case, their season-ending numbers would have been perceived much differently had their actual totals been closer to their expected numbers. McNeil had the 9th-highest expected OPS in MLB. Adell ranked 18th.

Semien made this list two years in a row, but there were some players on last year’s list who did bounce back in 2025. Bo Bichette’s 2024 OPS was 99 points under his expected OPS. He had a terrific season in 2025, hitting .311 with an .840 OPS. T.J. Friedl, Maikel Garcia, and Zach McKinstry also thrived after having a rough go of it in 2024.

Caveats abound here. Just because McNeil, Adell, and the others on this list could have been better in 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be better in 2026. But if you believe in a player on this list and are looking for reasons to feel good about them, then these numbers should provide you some comfort.

November 25, 2025

Stat of the Week: Dylan Cease Deserved A Better Fate In 2025

Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

The third inning of the Padres-Giants game on August 21 was one in a series of nuisances for Dylan Cease last season.

First Luis Matos hit a fly ball to right center field that was very generously scored a triple when Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramón Laureano had a miscommunication regarding who would catch it. Next, Andrew Knizner hit a fly ball down the right field line that Tatis played into a double (even Platinum Glove winners have bad days). Then Jung Hoo Lee hit a grounder to second that Jake Cronenworth botched for an error.

These three balls ranked in the top seven of the highest out probabilities on those hit against Cease last season. Each was 89% or higher.

I mentioned a series of nuisances because this game was just one example. The Padres totaled -11 Runs Saved on the balls hit against Cease in 2025. Only Logan Webb of the Giants got worse defensive support (-17 Runs Saved).

The Padres turned 69% of grounders and bunts into outs for Cease, a rate that ranked in the bottom 15% among pitchers with at least 125 grounders and bunts against them. They also ranked in the 27th percentile when it came to turning balls hit in the air against Cease into outs.

All of this jibes with Cease having a high ERA (4.55) but a pretty solid FIP (3.56), the latter being an ERA estimate based on his strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. Erasing 11 runs off Cease’s ledger would drop his 2025 ERA by a half-run (presuming they’re all earned runs), so bad defense doesn’t necessarily entirely account for the differential between his ERA and his FIP, but it’s a nice-sized chunk.

This was the second time in three years that Cease’s defense didn’t do him any favors. In 2023, he finished with a 4.58 ERA and the White Sox defense had -7 Runs Saved behind him. Combining 2023, 2024, and 2025, Cease’s defenses have cost him 17 runs, the most of any pitcher in MLB.

So when you see Cease being ranked as the No. 1 or No. 2 pitching free agent available this winter, as he has been by most publications, it seems there’s an understanding that he’s better than his recent ERAs would indicate.

Least Defensive Support Received – 2025 Season

Pitcher	Team	Defensive Runs Saved
Logan Webb	Giants	-17
Dylan Cease	Padres	-11
Brandon Eisert	White Sox	-10
Antonio Senzatela	Rockies	-10
Kyle Hendricks	Angels	-9

November 19, 2025

Stat of the Week – Ultimate Winner of the World Series: Great Defense

If you had told me before the season that I was going to write the following sentence, I would have laughed at you.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the most impressive-looking defensive player in the World Series.

He was!

This was a great World Series for great defense. We don’t track Defensive Runs Saved in the postseason, but our Data Scouts do award Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays when warranted. In all, they awarded 24 Good Fielding Plays. to 12 different players. Guerrero had 4 of them, one shy of Freddie Freeman for most in the postseason (4 of Freeman’s 5 Good Plays were for scooped throws).

Vlad Jr. put on a defensive variety show. In Game 2, he made an over-the-shoulder catch on a popup. In Game 3 he came off the bag and made a throw across the diamond to get a runner who trying to go first to third on an infield hit. That came in a tie game in the sixth inning. He then made a diving stop and a flawless flip to first base for the first out of Game 7 and a diving stop in the other direction to take away a likely extra base hit and at least one Dodgers run in the fourth inning.

This wasn’t a fluke. Guerrero Jr. had his best defensive season, finishing fourth among first basemen with 8 Defensive Runs Saved, a big improvement from the -7 and -1 from the last two seasons. The punchline here, I suppose, is that the team’s backup first baseman, late-season acquisition Ty France, won the AL Gold Glove Award. But Guerrero showed just how much better he’s gotten.

A strong honorable mention goes to the combination of Dodgers second basemen Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas, who for the purposes of this exercise could basically be morphed into one player. For one thing, they were part of a Dodgers infield that turned 75% of grounders and bunts into outs in the World Series (basically matching the team’s regular season rate, which ranked 4th-best overall), including 9-of-9 in Game 7.

For another, they combined for 3 Good Fielding plays of note. Edman atoned for a critical error in Game 3 by throwing Isiah Kiner-Falefa out at third base on a ball that deflected off Freeman, which helped keep the score tied in the ninth inning. Then he made a relay throw to cut down Davis Schneider at the plate as the potential go-ahead run in the 10th inning.

Then in Game 6, Rojas scooped a Kiké Hernández throw from left field to complete a game-ending double play. This was a heck of a play on multiple fronts. The Dodgers had Hernández positioned perfectly in left field and he had a great jump on the ball off the bat, which allowed him to make the catch.

And yes, Rojas hit the game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 7 and Will Smith hit the series-winning home run in the 10th. It seemed like the only way someone was going to win that game was by hitting a ball that was not defensible.

November 5, 2025

World Series Defensive Scouting Report: Los Angeles Dodgers

Icon Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

The Dodgers ranked third in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved this season, which seems odd when you consider that they had negative Runs Saved at five different positions (pitcher, catcher, first base), but a few positional strengths and one big team factor can go a long way towards defensive success.

Here’s our scouting report on the Dodgers defense:

Strengths

Defensive Positioning

What makes the Dodgers’ defense so good is not so much the skill of their players but that their players are often situated in the best spots to make plays.

We wrote that season almost exactly a year ago and it’s still true today. The Dodgers ranked second with 45 of their 67 Runs Saved coming from defensive positioning, including an MLB-high 35 from modified defensive shifts (ones in which the second baseman or shortstop is playing adjacent to second base).

Mookie Betts

In case you missed Thursday’s announcement, Betts won the Fielding Bible Award at shortstop. It’s his 7th Award, the most in the 20-year history of the honor, his first as a shortstop.

Betts had 17 Runs Saved which tied Taylor Walls for the lead at the position. He had fewer Defensive Misplays & Errors (16) than he did there in 2024 (19) despite playing more than 700 more innings at shortstop this season than last season.

Betts was at his best at season’s end. He led all shortstops in Runs Saved in August and September combined and had 9 of his 19 Good Fielding Plays this season from August 8 on (9 in 45 games compared to 10 in his first 105 games). In fact, Betts had as many Good Fielding Plays in an 18-day span in August as he had all of 2024 (5).

Here are three pretty good ones.

Versatility

As is their norm, the Dodgers have all sorts of positional versatility available if they wish to use it.

Tommy Edman has been playing second base, a spot where he has a pretty good history, but he’s also played third base and center field adequately this season, and could be used elsewhere if necessary. Likewise, Kike Hernandez has largely played left field this postseason but could actually play anywhere else without hesitation. Miguel Rojas, very good at second base when healthy, can play all four infield positions.

And Andy Pages has started 10 games in center field this postseason but has finished 8 of them in right field and 1 in left field. The Dodgers have used Justin Dean as a late-game replacement in center repeatedly this postseason. He too has history at all three outfield spots.

Pages has great stats with his arm in center field (and ranks Top 10 in average throw speed) but his range numbers aren’t good. They’re better in the corner outfield spots and he does do a good job of getting good jumps on fly balls.

Weakneeses

Freddie Freeman’s Range

Freeman is and has always been a very good scooper of throws at first base, but he had the worst Runs Saved specific to range of any first baseman this season (-10 Runs Saved). This was particularly evident on balls hit to his right, though there were a bunch of instances of pitchers failing to cover or being late to cover first base.

As long as Dodgers pitchers are attentive, this shouldn’t be too big an issue. But it’s something to keep an eye on as the series goes.

Will Smith’s framing

Smith used to be one of the game’s top defensive catchers, but his pitch framing and pitch blocking numbers have been well below average in each of the last two seasons. Baseball Savant data shows him as getting fewer high pitches called strikes than most catchers, as well as fewer on pitches to his right side (inside to lefties, outside to righties). He’s decent at throwing out potential basestealers, which is the best thing he’s got going for him right now, though he’s not long removed from having a hairline fracture in his right hand.

Something in-between

The running game

The Dodgers are a mixed bag when it comes to their pitchers controlling the running game. Opponents were 10-for-10 stealing against Tyler Glasnow in the regular season and 11-for-12 against Blake Treinen.

But they were only 6-for-11 vs Blake Snell, 7-for-12 against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 4-for-8 against Alex Vesia, and 0-for-3 against Emmet Sheehan. And they only attempted one steal (successful) against Shohei Ohtani.

Keep in mind that the Blue Jays have attempted only one stolen base all postseason. We’ll see if they’re tempted to try to run at all in this series.

October 24, 2025

World Series Defensive Scouting Report: Toronto Blue Jays

Photo: Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire

The Blue Jays finished second in the voting for our Defensive Team of the Year award, which was part of The Fielding Bible Awards. And that was for good reason. The Blue Jays have an abundance of strengths on their roster and very few weaknesses.

Here’s our scouting report on their defense heading into the World Series.

Strengths

Daulton Varsho

The Blue Jays have a center fielder who would run through walls to catch balls if he could. Varsho was the 2024 Fielding Bible Defensive Player of the Year and put up great Runs Saved numbers in limited action in 2025. He’s the MLB leader in Runs Saved since the start of both 2022 and 2023 (and 1 run shy of being the leader since the start of 2024).

Their other outfielders

We previously said that Myles Straw was worthy of being named ‘Reliever of the Year’ as a late-game defensive replacement. He’s played in nine games this postseason, played a full game once and closed seven others. Straw tied for second in Runs Saved in center field despite playing barely more than 500 innings. You’ll likely see him finish games in left field. He’s very aggressive at going after fly balls.

There’s also Nathan Lukes, who played both corner outfield spots in each of the last five games of the ALCS. He had 7 Runs Saved in 446 innings in right field and 4 Runs Saved in 249 innings in left field. Between the three outfield spots he had 26 Good Fielding Plays (including 9 assists without the aid of a cutoff man, tied for fifth-most in the majors).

Of the 20 outfielders with at least 18 Good Fielding Plays, Lukes had by far the fewest Misplays and Errors (5). The next-closest was 11.

Ernie Clement

Clement won a Fielding Bible Award for multi-position play this season after becoming the second player to record at least 10 Runs Saved at two different infield positions (second baseman/third baseman Ryan McMahon is the other).

Clement can play shortstop or fill in at first base (admittedly unlikely) as well and he does it all with one glove, a Mizuno that’s at least a decade old and looks it, that he purchased on EBay (we talked to him about it, but a hat-tip to ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian for finding that out).

Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman

Blue Jays catchers had 19 Runs Saved this season, more than any other team. Kirk ranked second in our pitch framing metric and tied for the top spot among catchers in Runs Saved from Good Fielding Plays, which largely consists of blocking pitches. Should anything happen to him,

Heineman is more than capable of filling in defensively. He ranked tied for fourth among catchers with 10 Runs Saved despite ranking 47th in innings caught. He’s better at throwing out basestealers than Kirk, who’s a smidge below average at that.

Andrés Giménez

Giménez is MLB’s leader in Defensive Runs Saved among second basemen the last four seasons. He’s one of the most fun to watch defensive players in the sport and seamlessly slid over to shortstop (which he’d played in the past) when Bo Bichette got hurt. Wherever he’s going to play in the World Series, he’s capable of making a nifty, wow-inducing play. Giménez told us in a past interview that he loves to dance. It’s evident from how he plays in the field.

Vladimir Guerrero

Guerrero had the best defensive season of his career, finishing with 8 Runs Saved after back-to-back seasons of -7 and -1. He’s going to make his share of errors but he’s been particularly good rangewise in 2025.

Weaknesses

The Bo Bichette Quandary

With Bichette injured earlier this postseason and Springer at DH the Blue Jays were able to start their best possible defensive lineup. But as Bichette returns, the Blue Jays have a dilemma. Do they want to mess with a good thing and weaken their defense?

Bichette’s value as a hitter far outweighs his defensive shortcomings (-12 Runs Saved) so long as he’s healthy. But Toronto seems to be giving consideration to playing Bichette at second base, which would keep Gimenez on the field but take another good defender, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, out. Bichette’s pro history at that position is 30 games, the last one in 2019

Wherever Bichette plays, there will be questions, and it will be the most worrisome defensive thing for Toronto in this series.

Addison Barger’s range

Barger is best suited for third base, but that spot is currently occupied. So he’s playing right field in the postseason, where he totaled -11 Runs Saved related to range in only 57 games during the regular season. That’s why he came out of the game late in games for defense in each of Toronto’s four ALCS wins.

On the positive side the top 10% of his throws averaged 96.5 MPH, the third-fastest average in MLB, and he had 6 assists without a cutoff man. His 5 Outfield Arm Runs Saved matched the most of any right fielder.

George Springer

This one comes with a “don’t worry about it.” Springer hasn’t played the field in a month as he’s been almost exclusively a DH in that time. It’s probably for the best. He totaled -6 Runs Saved in right field this season.

Defensive Positioning

The Blue Jays actually ranked last in the amount of value (Runs Saved) they got from defensive positioning. They rated poorly both in their infield positioning when playing straight-up and in their outfield positioning. The Blue Jays have such good athletes that they make up for how they set up. The Blue Jays may have been last in Runs Saved from positioning but they were first in Runs Saved from the skills of their players.

Also of note, only 43% of balls hit against the Blue Jays were hit against a defensive shift, the second-lowest rate in MLB (we consider it a shift when the second baseman or shortstop is playing unusually close to second base and at least one other fielder is significantly deviating from straight-up positioning).

Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt limiting steals

The Dodgers have attempted only 2 stolen bases this postseason, so this may not be a big deal, but baserunners stole 17 times in 20 attempts against Gausman in the regular season and they were 14-for-17 against Bassitt.

October 24, 2025