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  • Stat of the Week: AL Defensive Stories In 2024

    Stat of the Week: AL Defensive Stories In 2024

    Photo: Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire

    BY MARK SIMON

    With Opening Day approaching, we wanted to preview the 2023 season from a defensive perspective. So to be fair to all 30 teams, we’ve got a stat-driven theme or story to watch for each team. We’ll do the AL teams this week, the NL next week.

    Angels – The Angels ranked 19th in Defensive Runs Saved last season and didn’t make any significant improvements on the defensive side. Mike Trout hasn’t been moved off center field but Mickey Moniak fared well there when Trout was out, so it’s worth wondering if anything could happen on that front in 2024. For now, Trout is in center field and Moniak is in right field.

     

    Astros – The Astros finished 17th in Defensive Runs Saved last season but have the capability to be better than that, given a roster of players with good track records (Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Alex Bregman). The thing to watch will be a potential trouble spot, the right side of their infield, in particular José Altuve, who has totaled a positional-worst -28 Runs Saved over the last 2 seasons.

     

    Athletics – The A’s best defensive player is shortstop Nick Allen, who has saved 9 Runs in a little over 1,300 innings at the position the last 2 seasons. If his bat keeps him on the field, he’s Oakland’s best shot at a Fielding Bible Award.

     

    Blue Jays – The Jays are basically running it back from last season, when they led the majors in Runs Saved. The only exception is third base where Isiah Kiner-Falefa is slated to be the primary replacement for Matt Chapman. IKF has a very good history at the position so if he plays (likely contingent on how he hits), the drop-off at that position might be very small and the Blue Jays could again contend to be the top defensive team.

     

    Guardians – The Guardians have 3 outfielders who are capable of winning a Fielding Bible Award. Left fielder Steven Kwan already has two. Myles Straw came close. And Ramón Laureano has a great history in right field in a little more than a season’s worth of innings. The Guardians, in the eyes of some, are MLB’s top defensive team entering the season.

     

    Mariners – The Mariners have a couple of players who have contended for or won Gold Gloves in the past but didn’t put up the best defensive numbers last season. We’re referring to first baseman Ty France and shortstop J.P. Crawford. For the Mariners to contend, it would help if they excelled at their respective spots.

     

    Orioles – The Orioles ranked tied for 6th in Defensive Runs Saved last season because they were basically average or better at every position. They’re capable of matching that with their current roster particularly because they have 2 defensive standouts, Ramón Urias and Jorge Mateo who can come in late in games if needed for youngsters Jordan Westburg at third base and top prospect Jackson Holliday at second base.

     

    Rangers – After looking great in the 2023 postseason, making several highlight-reel plays, Josh Jung could step up a level defensively. He may become one of the game’s elite defenders in 2024.

     

    Rays – Rays shortstops tied for the MLB lead with 19 Runs Saved last season. With Wander Franco in significant legal trouble and Taylor Walls injured, will new acquisition José Caballero perform at a high level? Caballero looked the part at both middle infield spots last season and he seems like a good fit on a team that typically maximizes the talent of its roster.

     

    Red Sox – There’s a lot to watch throughout the Red Sox outfield. They’ll have a new player standing in front of the Green Monster in left fielder Tyler O’Neill, who won the Fielding Bible Award at that position in 2020 and 2021. Rookie Ceddanne Rafaela will be the center fielder. Jarren Duran, who played mostly center field and left field the last two seasons, will now try right field. It will be interesting to see how all three mesh in Fenway Park.

     

    Royals – Bobby Witt Jr. was one of the most improved defensive players in MLB in 2023. Is he capable of making the jump to being one of the top shortstops by Defensive Runs Saved?

     

    Tigers – Tigers third basemen combined to have the worst Runs Saved total of any infield position. The addition of Gio Urshela should make things considerably better there. And we’ll see how things shake out with rookies Parker Meadows and Colt Keith and how well they fare at center field and second base.

     

    Twins – After a year away from center field, Byron Buxton is going to return to playing the position in 2024. When healthy, Buxton is as good as it gets in center field. But his injury history is a concern. The Twins are ready for potential issues though with Manuel Margot available to back up at multiple spots.

     

    White Sox – The White Sox ranked 29th in Runs Saved last season, so they have nowhere to go but up. Their weakest spots included right field, where for now they have newcomer Dominic Fletcher, and shortstop, which will be manned by Paul DeJong. They’ll also have a new catching tandem in Martín Maldonado and Max Stassi. Maldonado has something to prove after a career-worst -10 Runs Saved in 2023.

     

    Yankees – The Yankees’ outfield Runs Saved numbers last season were among the worst in MLB. How will that change in 2024? They’ve got two new acquisitions to acclimate in Alex Verdugo (typically a good defender) and Juan Soto (typically not as good), and they’re giving Aaron Judge another try in center field, where he’s rated basically as average in the past.

  • Oral History: Adrián Beltré’s Defensive Legacy

    Oral History: Adrián Beltré’s Defensive Legacy

    Photo: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire

    New Hall of Fame inductee Adrián Beltré is the overall leader in Defensive Runs Saved since the stat was first tracked in 2003. 

    His 203 Runs Saved at third base far surpass the next-closest player. Beltré won 5 Gold Gloves and 4 Fielding Bible Awards (he could have won more of the latter if the Award existed prior to 2006).

    This is the story of Beltré’s defensive excellence. Over the last several months we talked to 17 of Beltré’s former teammates, coaches, managers, and friends to get a better sense of what made him into the defensive player he became. 

    It’s a story that began in 1979 when he was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. The Dodgers signed him in July 1994, at age 15. He began his minor league playing career in 1996.

    John Shoemaker (Beltré’s Class-A minor league manager, 1996-1997): “Seventeen years old. Full of energy, full of talent, full of the player who could make a play when a big play was needed.”

    “One game that came to mind, he hit an extra-inning home run to give us the lead, then made two consecutive terrific defensive plays with a runner in scoring position. One was a check-swing from a left-handed batter that was like a bunt. I doubt many people could have made that play except Adrián. He followed that up by fielding a high bouncer over the mound. I doubt any third baseman would have made that play, except Adrián.”

    Beltré was called up to the Dodgers from Double-A San Antonio at age 19 in 1998 and, at the very beginning, he had a rough patch.

    Shoemaker: “Sometimes he tried to make a play when there wasn’t a play. Gradually his errors became less and less just because of the experience and playing on better fields and just having a better idea of what he was doing.”

    Alex Cora (Dodgers teammate, 1998-2004): “I think Tommy Lasorda kind of rushed him into the scene. He was just erratic, not making the routine play. But little by little, the game slowed down for him and became the guy he became. He was a freak athlete, a gigantic guy with big thighs who moved like a smooth shortstop. He had an uncanny way of learning on the job and gradually he became a beast.”

    One thing that was immediately impressive was Beltré’s throwing arm. He had a nontraditional way of throwing to first base. It stung a lot of hands but it was highly effective.

    Travis Barbary (coach, Savannah Sand Gnats, 1996): “He’s just firing the ball across the infield with very little effort and it’s just like oh my gosh, this guy’s got a bazooka attached to his shoulder.”

    Ian Kinsler (Rangers teammate, 2011-2013): “He had a unique way of getting the ball to first base with a little step that he did to stop his momentum. We asked him why he does that, and he said his arm was too good when he was younger, that he would throw the ball into the stands all the time, or the first baseman couldn’t catch it. He had to figure out how to control his live arm and that’s what he came up with.”

    Barbary: “You wouldn’t teach a guy to throw to first base by coming to a standstill and just throwing it over there.”

    Cora: “For feeds to second base, it was the toughest for me. It was a low arm slot, sinking, like 100 miles-per-hour. Catching it was like trying to hit Kevin Brown.”

    Colby Lewis (Rangers teammate, 2011-2016) “He said he could never throw the ball soft because he would mess up.”

    By 2003, the first year Defensive Runs Saved was calculated, Beltré was a stud defender. He saved 25 runs that season. In 2004, which also happened to be the best offensive season of his career, he saved 22. Each year, his total ranked 2nd among third basemen.

    That offseason, he signed a big free agent contract with the Mariners and his run of defensive success continued. He won the Fielding Bible Award in its first year, 2006, then won his first Gold Glove the next year. In 2008, he won both Awards. He had two more seasons in his career with at least 20 Runs Saved and another season with 19.

    After five seasons in Seattle and one year in Boston, Beltré signed with the Rangers and was beloved in Texas both by the fans and his teammates. He played with the Rangers from 2011 until his retirement in 2018 and was consistently one of the top defensive players at third base in MLB. 

    Kinsler: “My wife did not like him when he was on Seattle. He took away countless hits from me.”

    The hitter who hit into the most outs on balls fielded by Beltré was both an AL and NL rival who had a lot of respect for his nemesis.

    Jason Kendall (MLB catcher, 1996-2010): “He was fun to watch as long as it wasn’t me. But apparently it was me, often. There are certain guys that you know if you hit a ball towards, you’re out. I’ve done that 50 times (actually, 48, per the Elias Sports Bureau). I knew I was out before I even ran down the baseline.”

    Most Defensive Runs Saved, 3rd Base

    Player Runs Saved
    Adrián Beltré 203
    Nolan Arenado 160
    Scott Rolen 114
    Manny Machado 104
    Evan Longoria 98

    One of the things that Beltré became best known for was making plays when he had to come in to field the ball.

    Eric Young (Dodgers teammate, 1998-1999): “The best at coming in on balls that I’ve ever seen.”

    Eduardo Perez (Mariners teammate, 2006): “He was one of those guys you couldn’t take your eyes off of on defense.”

    Willie Bloomquist (Mariners teammate, 2005-2008): “The play that he often made coming in on a bunt or a slow roller where he would literally be moving toward the third base dugout, drive back across his body and try to throw a frozen rope to first base, I don’t think I’ve seen anybody do it that way.

    “He was phenomenal at it. I would go try and imitate it and I’d hurt myself.”

    Cora: “I was in awe [of his bunt defense]. Talking about it now, I’m still in awe.”

    Eric Nadel (Rangers broadcaster): “That’s the indelible memory that I have of him defensively, making that off balance throw from down under and then going flying.”

    6-foot-8 Mariners first baseman Richie Sexson had a game he would play with Beltré when they took infield practice.

    Richie Sexson (Mariners teammate, 2005-2008) “I would just hold my glove in a certain area, off to the side. I literally wouldn’t move my glove. If he missed it with a throw, I let it go. I wouldn’t catch it because it wasn’t perfect. He had to hit the glove, or it didn’t count.”

    Beltré could field the hard-hit balls well too. He developed a pre-game routine early in his career where he’d take ground balls in large volumes.

    Pedro Grifol (Mariners various roles, 2005-2009) “He absolutely wore me out because he wanted me to hit the hardest ground balls I could ever hit. And he wanted ball after ball, and bucket after bucket.”

    Nadel: “He made every type of play. And you get to a point where you weren’t surprised by any kind of miraculous play that he made.”

    And yes, the stories you’ve heard are true.

    Kinsler: “He really did not wear a protective cup. That is correct. He said his hands were good enough that he didn’t need a cup.”

    Beltré played at a time when the player was more responsible for his positioning than he is now (that is reflected in much of his Defensive Runs Saved total, as SIS started giving teams—rather than players—credit for positioning in 2013).

    Ron Washington (Beltré’s Rangers manager, 2011-2014): “He was just very anticipative. He knew the league. He knew what these guys did when they did it. He didn’t have what you might call a ton of range, like in today’s game, the way they talk about range. But he was an expert at positioning himself.”

    Sexson: “He didn’t need a chart. He knew where everyone was gonna hit it, where to stand, how deep to play.”

    Elvis Andrus (Rangers teammate, 2011-2018): “He used to help me with positioning myself. We didn’t have cards like we have now. He taught me how to read swings. He taught me how to play the guy who was 0-for-3 versus the guy who was 3-for-3. 

    He would say, ‘Always put yourself in the hitter’s mind. If you want to be a good defender, you have to think like a good hitter.’ And you know how you feel when you’re 3-for-3, you know how you feel when you’re 0-for-3. The guy that’s 0-for-3 probably isn’t going to pull the ball. He’s probably going to try to go up the middle. The guy who’s 3-for-3 is thinking big and trying to pull the ball or hit a home run. Those little insights mean a lot when you’re playing defense. They can change the game in a lot of ways.”

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – All Positions

    Player Runs Saved
    Adrián Beltré 203
    Andrelton Simmons 200
    Yadier Molina 170
    Kevin Kiermaier 165
    Mookie Betts 162

    Beltré’s garnered a reputation for incredible durability. From his age-23 to age-27 seasons, Beltré averaged 157 games played. From his age-33 to age-37 seasons, he averaged 152. 

    Cora: “When he really took off in 2004, he did it on one leg. I think it was his ankle. He was banged up the whole time. He was limited, but 75% of Adrián Beltré was a lot better than whoever else we had.”

    Bloomquist: “I do remember there was a time that (Mariners manager) Mike Hargrove gave him the day off. He said to Beltré, ‘I’m giving you a day off.’ And Beltré said, ‘No, you’re not.’ I watched him play a whole season with a torn UCL.”

    Washington: “He had a rib cage injury, and we wanted to put him on the DL, but he fought it. We wanted to take him out the lineup. He fought it. So one day, (Rangers GM) Jon Daniels and I decided that we’re just going to take him out the lineup and not tell him. So he came to the ballpark. Of course, he was upset. And when he came over telling me about it, he said he’ll let me know when he can’t play. I got down on my knees and I said, ‘I’m down on my knees. I’m begging you to take the night off.’ 

    That did it.

    Suddenly everyone wanted to play through pain and injuries because Beltré did it.”

    As Beltré aged, he seemed to have more fun on the field. He appreciated that he was playing a game and visibly showed how much he enjoyed it.

    Bloomquist: “Elvis Andrus was the Rangers shortstop and he’d call off Adrián on a popup. Beltré would still pretend to make the catch and Elvis would catch it right next to him.”

    Emily Jones (Fox Sports Southwest sideline reporter): “On balls that were well over his head, he would toss his glove in the air.”

    Andrus: “(At the end of innings), we were always looking at the fans, trying to find funny fans, or see if a couple was fighting or having a discussion. Adrián and I would be asking each other, ‘What are they talking about?’”

    Jonathan Lucroy (Rangers teammate, 2016-2017): “He was just a big kid out there. I think that’s why he played so long is because he treated the game like it was a game, it wasn’t a job to him.

    Matt Vinnola (Rangers director of baseball operations, 2009-2017): “He went above and beyond with my family, like throwing BP and playing wiffleball with my kids. He was incredibly kind. And his son, A.J. was the most professional and respectful kid I ever encountered.”

    Lewis: “Three words to describe Beltré? Intense, fun, and fearless. He was so intense, but he’d make it look fun, you know?”

    Jones: “It was that rare combination of being an elite player at your position and just being comfortable in your own skin that you can just go out and play and display the amount of joy that he was able to play with.” 

    The legacy of Adrián Beltré is that of an all-time great player, and in a few months, he’ll have a plaque in Cooperstown to immortalize his well-rounded career.

    Kinsler: “I think when you play with a player of Adrián’s caliber, you tend to take a lot of things for granted until you have another third baseman standing over there and you realize the difference that he made in the game day in and day out.”

    Bloomquist: “I’ve never seen anybody remotely that good defensively at third base.”

    Vinnola: “I remember when we were signing him, Don Welke (who worked in baseball for 50 years), when we were talking about Beltré, he just said ‘special.’ When Don Welke said ‘special,’ it got people’s attention.

    Nadel: “I came back to the hotel one night at the Hall of Fame and Brooks Robinson called out to me from across the lobby. He said, ‘Eric, I’d like you to do me a favor. Tell Adrián Beltré that I watch as many games of yours as I can so I can watch him play third base.’ I told Adrián that and he was really moved by it. Brooks Robinson said that? A huge smile came across his face.”

    Grifol: “He wanted to be a Hall of Famer. He trained like it, he worked like it, and he lived like it.”

  • Stat of the Week: Dancing With The Star

    Stat of the Week: Dancing With The Star

    Let’s talk dancing for a moment.

    Not NCAA Tournament dancing. Even though that’s pertinent these days, that’s another sport. I’m talking about baseball and dancing.

    Several years ago, I interviewed Hall of Fame manager Casey Stengel’s grand niece, Toni Harsh, who told me how much Stengel loved dancing, to the point of showing off the waltz to his family with his wife Edna. He passed on the importance of dancing to his players, encouraging them to take lessons.

    “Dancing taught shifting weight, turning, and stretching,” Harsh said. “It was about staying light on your feet.”

    Stengel would have loved the answer Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez gave us when we asked him how he stayed in good physical shape during the offseason, besides doing basic baseball work. He likes to dance.

    “First of all, it’s a way to enjoy the moment, enjoy the music, enjoy your family,” Giménez said on the latest episode of The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast. “Dance is an easy way to show love. And if you move your feet, you’re going to be in a great position to dance or to catch a ground ball. When I have the opportunity to dance with my wife or other family members, I do it, because you move your feet there. When the ball is coming, you kind of dance with it.”

    Giménez brought to mind similar thoughts from former Red Sox minor league coach Bianca Smith, who is now coaching in Japan. A few months ago she told us, “No matter what you’re doing, whether you’re hitting, you’re on the bases, you’re in the field, you’re dancing with the pitcher.”

    Said Giménez: “I’m with her. If you move your feet when you’re dancing, it’s going to be easier to take a ground ball. I’m not the best dancer, but I can do it, so it helps me for my defense.”

    Giménez danced his way into the hearts of Guardians fans in 2022 with an MVP-caliber season. He wasn’t quite as good a hitter in 2023 but he dominated in the field. His 22 Defensive Runs Saved led the majors at his position. He won both our Fielding Bible Award at second base and the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award as the top AL defensive player last season. Giménez’s deft athleticism led to him making 23 sliding defensive plays, most in MLB in 2023.

    This season, Giménez has a new middle-infield partner to tango with, as fellow Venezuelan Brayan Rocchio is slated to be the Guardians’ everyday shortstop and another Venezuelan, Gabriel Arias, is a possible backup. Notable all-Venezuelan double play combinations of the past include Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, Alcides Escobar and Omar Infante, and Ozzie Guillén and Fred Manrique.

    If Giménez is at the top of his game his double play combo has a chance to be the best all-Venezuelan one ever. And perhaps they’ll give a new meaning to ‘dancing with the stars.’

  • Spencer Torkelson’s Clear Areas For Improvement

    Spencer Torkelson’s Clear Areas For Improvement

    Photo: John Jones/Icon Sportswire

    This play kind of sums it up how it went defensively for Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson in 2023.

    Torkelson ranked last among first basemen with -10 Defensive Runs Saved last season. Though his offense improved decently from his rookie season, his defense took a step back from 2022 (-4 Runs Saved). As a result, he was one of two 30-homer hitters to finish with a bWAR less than 1 (Kyle Schwarber was the other).

    Torkelson was a rough watch at first base, relatively speaking. That throw from the video atop this article wasn’t the only one he had trouble with. We credited him with 7 mishandles of throws (another example is this one).

    Torkelson also had a few issues trying to catch foul balls this season (here, here, and here). But most significantly, he repeatedly got eaten up by ground balls. Here’s one example:

     Here are a few others (here, here, here, here, and here). Most of those plays are balls either hit straight at him or to his right and that’s where the numbers were most problematic. The table below shows how many plays were made, how many opportunities he had to make a play, and how many plays below average Torkelson was based on our out probability data.

    Balls hit Plays Made/Opportunities Plays Saved
    To his right 59/212 -7
    At him 54/72 -7

    In other words, Torkelson made 59 plays on balls hit to his right. An average first baseman would have made 66. And he made 54 plays on balls hit at him. An average first baseman would have made 61. That’s where the damage to his statistical ledger was done.

    That’s not to say that he was all bad. Torkelson’s 43 Good Fielding Plays were the most of any first baseman last season. He was able to offset those mishandles of throws with an MLB-best 29 Good Plays on handling throws (we call those “scoops”).

    But based on his Runs Saved total, Torkelson has no shortage of work to do prior to the start of the 2024 season. He’s got some clear issues as a hitter too.

    In 2023, Torkelson hit .106 in AB ending with a pitch that we classified as down-and-away. That’s 13-for-123.

    Of the 251 hitters who saw the most down-and-away pitches in 2023* Torkelson ranks …

    – 238th in batting average

    – 198th in slugging percentage

    – 57th-highest in percentage of swings that missed (the higher you are, the worse you’re doing)

    * We’d have done 250 hitters, but there was a 3-way tie for 249th

    Hitting down-and-away pitches is hard, really hard. A lot of those are tough sliders, sweepers, and changeups. This is what we’re talking about (here) and this (here) and this (here). But most major leaguers are at least a little better than Torkelson is.

    Torkelson’s teammate Riley Greene is right around the midpoint of our player sample in batting average against down-and-away pitches. He hit .190 against them. Torkelson was about 10 hits away from hitting .190 against down-and-away pitches in 2023. If he plays every day, replacing 10 outs with 10 hits would be  one more hit every 15-16 games. Finding his way to a few more hits on those pitches would certainly make Torkelson a better player. So would making fewer outs.

    As we wrote about with Bobby Witt Jr. not too long ago, one of the biggest lessons for a young player is learning what pitches he can hit, what pitches he can’t, and making the necessary adjustments in his swing tendencies. Torkelson could be best served by a few more takes, even if those pitches are in the strike zone, in the hopes that he’ll get something in one of his hot zones later in the at-bat.

    One thing Torkelson does well that bodes well is that he hits the heat. He hit .279 and slugged .549 against fastballs that were 95 MPH or faster on the TV radar gun, missing on 17.5% of his swings. The MLB averages against those pitches were a .244 batting average, .397 slugging percentage, and 21% miss rate, respectively.

    Also similar to Witt, if Torkelson were to more fully figure things out at the plate and in the field, his ascent could go a long way in determining his team’s ascent in 2024 in an AL Central that doesn’t seem to have a dominant team.

  • NPB Scouting Report: Kona Takahashi

    NPB Scouting Report: Kona Takahashi

    Kona Takahashi put up the best two seasons of his nine-year NPB career in 2022 and 2023. These seasons vaulted him into the conversation of the next Japanese pitchers primed to move stateside. After the Seibu Lions denied his off-season request to be posted, he will assuredly be posted come the winter of 2024 if he puts up another productive season at age 27.

    While Takahashi doesn’t post the strikeout numbers of other top pitchers in NPB, he prevents runs as well as nearly anyone. And in the lower run-scoring environment, he has thrived as a pitcher who challenges hitters with his offspeed and breaking pitches in the zone.

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks K-BB%
    2022 175.2 2.20 128 51 10.9 %
    2023 155.0 2.21 120 47 11.6 %

    Why he’s good

    Takahashi throws enough strikes to pepper the zone and minimize walks with around a 7% BB rate the last two seasons. In 2023, he had a 63% strike rate working the ball in and out against hitters to stretch the plate. 

    He does not give in when behind in the count, especially later in the year when he went to his slider and splitter in 2-1 and 2-0 counts. Here’s a splitter to Kensuke Kondoh to get back into the at-bat when down 2-0.

    via GIPHY

    Mechanical changes and velocity increase

    After training at Driveline before the 2023 season, Takahashi cleaned up his mechanics with his arm action and lead leg block. He started throwing harder, sitting around 93 mph on his fastball instead of 91 mph, and touched the upper 90s deep into games.

    At times especially in July when he threw back-to-back shutouts, he threw all of his pitchers harder. Getting better as the game went on, fueled by adrenaline, and seeing the finish line, he ripped this 87 mph slider for a sword.

    While his fastball garnered modest whiff rates at about 11% last season, his splitter and slider became real weapons with a solid whiff rate of around 32% on both of the pitches last season. He mixed those pitches in during two-strike counts when he wasn’t trying to sneak a fastball underneath the hands of a batter.

    via GIPHY

    The Arsenal (2023 usage and Average Velocity)

    Fastball  39 %  93.3 mph 

    Juicing a couple of clicks out of his fastball last season elevated his game and helped his slider and splitter perform better. With above-average command of the pitch, he tries to stay out of the middle of the zone. 

    He also doesn’t lean on fastball usage like most Japanese pitchers. He might throw any of his pitches to start an at-bat and use the fastball more as a surprise. 

    Here is another example of bringing the ball back over the plate armside as he throws this four-seam at 95.6 mph to get the freeze and finish the game:

    via GIPHY

    The four-seam has decent run and he uses the horizontal movement to his advantage both in looking for strikes but also missing barrels moreso than creating the swing and miss. He can dial up the fastball high in the zone when needed and it performs best when sequenced with his other pitches.

    via GIPHY

    Splitter 25%   87.5 mph

    Takahashi’s splitter is his next best pitch as he not only gets chases on it but also limits damage with a .460 OPS against, and a .161 opponents’ batting average in 2023. His grip works both seams with his fingertips and as he pronates, creating either a slight dip to the pitch as it moves arm side or a sharper dive away from hitters. 

    He can steal a strike against batters in the zone but the pitch is at its absolute best when it’s darting towards the dirt. Here’s an at-bat against Kondoh, the best pure hitter in NPB. Takahashi uses two different looks at his splitter to get the swinging strikeout.

    via GIPHY

    The pitch had an outrageous 78% ground ball rate last season, so even when batters make contact they just pound it into the dirt. This means it’s hard to get singles up the middle even on turf fields. Takahashi uses the defense to his advantage and will keep the splitter at the bottom of the zone to get ground balls.

    Slider 20% 82.8 mph    Slurve 3.4% 79 mph

    Takahashi has two slider variations, one that’s more horizontal and gyro spin-based that he will use at any point to get a strike. Along with what I would classify as a slurve with some horizontal sweep but a lot of depth to it at a lower velocity.

    Slider:

    via GIPHY

    Slurve: 

    via GIPHY

    The slight variation is enough to call it two separate pitches. He also uses two separate signs for both pitches as well. He will use the slurve as a wrinkle but heavily leans on the slider in situations where he needs a strike. He also throws the slider at his highest strike rate with a 67.5% rate last season. 

    The velocity of the pitch will fluctuate, but when he wants he can rip some gnarly sliders with higher-end velocity and sweep. He makes the pitch a bat-misser and weak-contact merchant. 

    Cutter 11%    88 mph 

    Takahashi’s cutter is an intriguing pitch he uses to get himself back into count leverage and as a putaway pitch at times. He will bury the pitch on the hands of left-handed hitters in a more traditional sense but will also try to dot the pitch away from right-handed hitters, glove side. 

    There’s enough variance from his slider that the pitch has more carry and stays vertical along with the velocity difference. However, there are times that he will have the pitch leak back over the plate, arm side.

    via GIPHY

    The cutter is a pitch that Takahashi will throw with enough confidence and conviction that he might ride the pitch for a few innings, even more than his slider in some games.

    Curveball 2%  75 mph  (Knuckle Curve 76.5 mph)

    This is a pitch that Takahashi might look to incorporate more into his arsenal, especially to lefties. He threw a more traditional curve in 2023 with a 12-6 shape but also dabbled with a knuckle curve. He threw the traditional one 25 times and the spiked grip 23 times in 2023. 

    via GIPHY

    He threw the knuckle curve a little harder than the traditional one but tried to find consistency with the pitch to add another offering. He is primarily trying to steal a strike with the pitch as a first-pitch offering, and that’s all he needs right now. It serves as  something to keep in the back of hitters’ heads or a way to get up early in the count.

    via GIPHY

    What to expect this season.

    Takahashi has been an excellent run-preventer for the last two seasons. His jump in velocity last season helped produce more whiffs, but he will never be a high-end strikeout guy. 

    What makes him great is his bulldog mentality along with good control of his slider and splitter. He seems to raise the level of his pitching as he gets deeper into games. If he’s able to provide another successful season for the Lions they may have a tough decision coming next winter about whether he should be posted.

  • Stat of the Week: The Top 5 Defensive Center Fielders in MLB

    Stat of the Week: The Top 5 Defensive Center Fielders in MLB

    Photo: Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire

    BY MARK SIMON

    The other day, I wanted to rank the top defensive center fielders in MLB entering 2024, so I pulled up The Fielding Bible leaderboards along with a pen and paper and got to work.

    I put Brenton Doyle No. 1. Doyle led all center fielders in both Defensive Runs Saved and Good Fielding Plays last season and won the NL Gold Glove at the position. If he hits even a smidge, he’s going to play and play a lot because he’s so good in the field. And he’s still young. He turns 26 in May and should still have fresh legs.

    I’m guessing that Kevin Kiermaier won’t like that I’m putting him No. 2 given that he’s the reigning Fielding Bible Award winner and the overall leader in Runs Saved by a center fielder since we started tracking the stat in 2003. But Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a substantial injury history. So we’re going with the young buck ahead of the reigning champ and encouraging the older guy to prove us wrong. (We’ll own up to it if we are!)

    No. 3 is another veteran, Michael A. Taylor. Though he’s currently unsigned, we’ll still put our faith in Taylor, who ranks first among center fielders in Runs Saved over the last 3 seasons. We wrote about him in great detail last week and encourage you to check that out to learn more about what makes him good (spoiler: he’s been really good at chasing the deep fly ball). The track record of success is there.

    My No. 4 defensive center fielder entering 2024 is another young’un, Johan Rojas. Rojas ranked 4th among center fielders in Runs Saved despite ranking 37th in innings. He also had the most Runs Saved of any minor league center fielder in 2023. There’s every reason to think he’ll be great in 2024.

    No. 5 is the one that was hardest to pick and I’m going to go with the wildest of wild cards, Byron Buxton. Buxton is going to return to playing outfield after solely playing as a designated hitter last season.

    Buxton is as good as it gets on a per-inning basis. From 2020 to 2022 he played about the equivalent of one MLB season in center field and saved 29 runs. That’s a league-leading caliber season for a center fielder. In that 3-year span, Buxton ranked 2nd among center fielders in Runs Saved and 20th in innings played.

    Buxton is a potential make-or-break player for the Twins this season and also a high-risk, high-reward pick in Defensive Runs Saved fantasy leagues (yes, those leagues exist). I feel good enough about him to rank him in the No. 5 slot. If he’s healthy for most of the season, he’ll be a difference maker.

    Who are your Top 5 defensive center fielders entering 2024? Tweet your picks at us.

    Mark’s Top 5 Defensive CF Entering 2024

    1. Brenton Doyle
    2. Kevin Kiermaier
    3. Michael A. Taylor
    4. Johan Rojas
    5. Byron Buxton
  • Stat of the Week: MLB’s Rising Defensive Stars

    Stat of the Week: MLB’s Rising Defensive Stars

    Photo: Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire

     

    A year ago at this time I wrote about MLB’s rising defensive stars, and now seems like a good time to do that again looking to 2024.

    There are 4 players on active rosters this spring who will be in their age-23-or-younger season in 2024* and who had at least 10 Defensive Runs Saved in the major leagues in 2023. They’re in our spotlight heading into the upcoming season.

    * Age 23 or younger as of June 30, 2024

    Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe totaled 15 Runs Saved and won the AL Gold Glove last season. Volpe played the 2nd-most innings of any shortstop in the majors (only Francisco Lindor played more). With his defense solid (he’s particularly good on balls hit to his left), improving his hitting figures to be a high priority in 2024. He had a .666 OPS in 2023.

    Phillies center fielder Johan Rojas was outstanding after being recalled from the minor leagues, amassing 15 Runs Saved in 57 games. Combine that with his minor league-best total of 15 Runs Saved and Rojas had an epic defensive season. Rojas placed 9th in The Fielding Bible Awards voting among center fielders last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in 2024.

    Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson played an almost identical number of innings at shortstop and third base last season. He was better at shortstop, amassing 10 of his 13 Runs Saved. Henderson finished with 6.2 bWAR in 2023. With a good defensive season and solid offensive numbers again, he may be in line for something better in 2024.

    Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar’s defensive play was one of the highlights of a rough season for a last-place team. His 13 Runs Saved ranked 4th at the position. Like Volpe, Tovar played a lot. He ranked 5th among shortstops in innings played and had an impressive reel of standout defensive plays.

    One other player I want to point out is Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams who finished with 4 Runs Saved in 2023. Abrams’ defensive game took a major step forward in 2023 as he improved from -5 Runs Saved in 2022. Though his throwing issues kept him from being in the same class as the quartet above, his defensive stock is up heading into 2024.

  • Michael A. Taylor, The Top Defensive CF The Last 3 Seasons, Still Has No Home

    Michael A. Taylor, The Top Defensive CF The Last 3 Seasons, Still Has No Home

    Photo: Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire

    We recently wrote about how the best defensive shortstop in the game, Miguel Rojas, was somehow thriving at a young man’s position while defying the statistical aging curve that brings down most players his age.

    The top-performing defensive center fielder over the last 3 seasons is doing the same. He just doesn’t have a home yet for 2024. 

    I’m referring to current free agent Michael A. Taylor.  

    I imagine it is going to generate a lot of responses of “Best center fielder? What about ___?” (insert Brenton Doyle, John Rojas, Kevin Kiermaier and many other options here).

    But it’s Taylor who has the best 3-year track record. Taylor saved 19, 19, and 5 runs the last 3 seasons. He was not in Doyle or Kiermaier’s class last year but he was still good. 

    And of particular importance when comparing him to a lot of these other players, Taylor has played more than them. He ranks 4th among center fielders in innings played the last 3 seasons. Kiermaier ranks 10th.

    Name Innings DRS
    Michael A. Taylor 3,156 43
    Kevin Kiermaier 2,358 33
    Myles Straw 3,882 27
    Daulton Varsho 1,040 21
    Brenton Doyle 1,023 19

    What I watch when I watch Taylor

    At his best, Taylor is a great sprinter who can chase balls down deep in the gaps. When he’s doing this well, he’s a highly valuable defender.

    From 2021 to 2023, Taylor caught 323 of 386 balls classified as “deep” in our shallow/medium/deep classification system. Based on historical out probabilities, he was expected to catch 308 of them. 

    So over these 3 seasons, he’s +15 plays saved (our version of Outs Above Average) just on deep fly balls (323 plays made minus 308 expected plays made). That was No. 1 in MLB in that time.

    The last 3 seasons, Taylor was 6, 9, and 4 plays above average on deep balls. 

    But there’s no shame in being +4 in 2023. It’s tied for 10th-best among all center fielders. 

    The arm

    Outfield assists are important because you get credit both for netting an out and erasing a baserunner. Preventing runners from taking an extra base is too. 

    Taylor’s arm was notable to his value in both 2021 and 2022, netting him 5 and 4 Runs Saved, respectively. He dropped to 1 Run Saved in 2023. That happened because his assist total dipped, from 8 assists without a cutoff man in 2021 and 5 in 2022 to 1 in 2023.

    Though he dipped to 1 Runs Saved in 2023, there don’t appear to be any red flags with his arm. He averaged 92 MPH on the top 10% of his throws in both 2021 and 2022, 91.5 MPH in 2023. That doesn’t feel like a significant difference. And the percentage of runners 

    In fairness to Taylor, there was one factor beyond his control. He played a comparable number of innings in 2022 and 2023, but in 2022 he had 45 more opportunities to deny a baserunner an advance because the 2022 Royals pitching was not great and the 2023 Twins were much better than them. So he didn’t have as many chances to put his arm to use.

    What was the difference between Taylor 2021-22 and 2023?

    Baseball Savant’s jump numbers indicate that Taylor’s “burst” (the number of feet above average that he was covering at the point in which the ball is in the air from 1.5 to 3 seconds) is down by about a foot from 2021. However, he did improve a little bit in the route-running component of the jump stats. 

    Taylor also had a few more miscues and just misses. He had a career high 22 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 2023 and committed them at a little higher rate than in 2021 or 2022.

    Taylor will turn 33 in late March, so perhaps with age comes some slowing down. But even so, he seems to still have something left to give.

    The bat

    I imagine the concerns with Taylor are more with the .220 batting average and .279 on-base percentage last season than anything else. 

    Taylor had a big hole at the area that we classify “down and away,” going 8-for-83 in at-bats that ended with a pitch there (his .096 batting average and 56% rate of swings missed) were bottom 10% in that stat). His overall contact rate decreased nearly 5 percentage points from 2022. He basically accepted some missed swings in return for more home runs (a career-high 21). 

    The result: Even with the issues Taylor had, it was still his best offensive season since 2017. He had an OPS of .720, a smidge below MLB average for a center fielder (.730). 

    The fits

    That Taylor is unsigned is somewhat surprising. 

    One of his best potential fits, the Mets, who decided to move Brandon Nimmo to left field, went for Harrison Bader rather than Taylor. The Reds, a defensively-challenged team in 2023, have not gone for Taylor, who would be a useful late-inning replacement that would immediately improve their outfield defense. 

    Taylor’s best current fit might be with the Padres, who are currently projected to replace Trent Grisham (traded to Yankees) with Jose Azocar, who has a .633 career OPS in a little more than 300 plate appearances. Taylor, who has averaged better than 2.5 bWAR the last 3 seasons, would absolutely be an upgrade there.

    Taylor isn’t Blake Snell or Matt Chapman, but he’s still a useful player who could be a key piece for a winning team. As someone who writes about good defense as his beat, I can without question say he still deserves a legitimate role on an MLB team in 2024. 

  • Stat of the Week: Gio Urshela Is A More Meaningful Signing Than You Think

    Stat of the Week: Gio Urshela Is A More Meaningful Signing Than You Think

    Photo: Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire

    The biggest defensive hole in MLB team infields last season was third base for the Tigers. Detroit tried 9 players at that position and those players combined for -22 Defensive Runs Saved. Not only did the Tigers rank last in MLB in Runs Saved by their third basemen, they also ranked 26th in Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Average at the position.

    Tigers general manager Scott Harris chipped away at his team’s roster construction all winter. He traded for Mark Canha to give the team a bat that could control the strike zone and improve the offense’s production. And he added a pair of veteran arms for the starting rotation in Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty.

    These additions supplement a young core that could have 2 prime prospects— center fielder Parker Meadows and infielder Colt Keith— as everyday players.

    Harris didn’t do much about third base until Thursday when the Tigers signed Gio Urshela to a one-year contract. If the Tigers wanted to be really ambitious there, they could have pursued free agent Matt Chapman on a long-term deal, but for the short term, Urshela is a good fit.

    If fully recovered from the pelvis injury that limited him to 62 games last season, Urshela, an 8-year veteran, will be a massive upgrade at the hot corner for whatever number of games he plays in 2024. He totaled 6 Defensive Runs Saved in limited action at third base last season and 4 Runs Saved there in 2022. He’s had only one bad stretch there, in 2021 when he totaled -4 Runs Saved for the Yankees.

    Urshela had a .703 OPS in those 62 games last season. That doesn’t sound impressive, but that would also be a big upgrade. Tigers third basemen combined for a .624 OPS last season, 3rd-worst in MLB.

    There is risk with the 32-year-old Urshela, but it’s inexpensive risk. He signed for a base salary of $1.5 million. He may just play in a platoon role. But even if he plays part time, the Tigers improving to 0 Runs Saved and a .700 OPS at third base this season as a result of his production would be noticeable. If Urshela could reach his past peak (he’s twice been a 3-bWAR player), the change would be significant.

    This signing isn’t by itself going to win a division title. But it potentially makes a big hole on the team look much more respectable. Winning championships isn’t just about signing star players. It’s about making sure you have a roster of players that aren’t costing you potential wins. In an AL Central where 85 to 90 wins may be enough to win the division, a move like signing Urshela looks like a pretty smart one.

  • Q&A Steve Williams, Pirates VP and President, Buck O’Neil Professional Scouts & Coaches Association

    Q&A Steve Williams, Pirates VP and President, Buck O’Neil Professional Scouts & Coaches Association

    With February being Black History Month, our baseball podcast featured Black guests who have made a significant impact on baseball. One of those is Pirates vice-president of player personnel Steve Williams.

    Steve has been working in baseball scouting since 1988. He’s also the president of The Buck O’Neil Professional Baseball Scouts & Coaches Association, which you can learn more about at this link.

    The conversation below between Mark Simon, SIS VP of Baseball Bobby Scales, and Steve Williams, has been edited for length and clarity. You can hear the full interview on our podcast (click here to listen).

    Bobby: Steve Williams is on my Mount Rushmore of mentors, not just in the game, but just in my own life. There’s nothing I can’t call this man about.

    Walk us through the early part of your career. How you got into scouting and how you got to helping Black folks inside the game get the opportunities they deserve.

    Steve Williams: I never thought I would be a VP starting in 1988 as a young scout. I played at Clemson and my college coaches were very integral in my, in my life. My head coach was more of a father figure than anything else.

    And he was really supportive of me as a player, as a person, becoming a man, just like my father was. Coach (Billy) Wilhelm and one of our assistant coaches who lived in Minnesota (heard) the Twins were looking for an area scout. I just finished playing as a college player. They recommended me. I interviewed with Terry Ryan in January 1988. I never thought he would call me on that Monday and offer me the opportunity to do it.

    I didn’t have any experience. Back then, all those scouts were older. There weren’t many young scouts at that time. And Terry hired me, and I jumped into this business.

    The first year my dad asked, ‘Hey, you know, how do you like this gig?’ I said, dad, if I could double my salary, I’d do this forever. And I’ve been very blessed, starting year 37, just enjoying the journey, doing things. I never thought a little country boy from North Carolina would do. Can I get to 40? It would be great.

    One of my drives is to mentor, help develop people and that’s, you know, some of the things that we do with ‘The Buck.’ We’ve been doing ‘The Buck for 25-plus years.

    It’s an organization, grassroots, Danny Montgomery, Fred Wright, and myself. We were area scouts in the Carolinas. We just wanted to get people together. We wanted to get like-minded Brown and Black people together. There weren’t many of us in the game at that time. You could count people in scouting that looked like me on one hand.

    It was meant as more of a support staff, support group, you know, just, hey, what do you eat in this town? Where do you get a haircut in this town? Simple, little things. Our first meeting was 15 hours!

    Fred Wright idolized Buck O’Neil and said let’s name this after Buck because Buck was one of the best ambassadors in baseball, Buck was one of the first Black coaches and scouts, and everybody loved Buck. We didn’t want to be known as a Black organization; we weren’t a Brown organization. We’re a baseball organization. Anybody that’s a baseball person can be a part of ‘The Buck.’ Our membership is very diverse. We have over 200 members.

    We told Buck what we were, what our dream was, what we were trying to do, what our vision was for this group and the man just about jumped out of his chair. He understood what was needed in the game. What we were trying to do, he did a lot of by himself.

    I met Buck in my first year scouting, in Sarasota, I was in awe. He started talking to me like I’d known him all his life. He gave me advice about how to work, being nice to people, being respectful, respecting the game, making sure you always look presentable. Years later, we brought ‘The Buck’ to Kansas City. He walked into the room; he didn’t realize there were 50 or so of us in the meeting. And they had to usher him out eventually because he didn’t want to stop talking to everybody.

    Mark: What inspires you, watching baseball at your age?

    Steve Williams: I still love to hunt for players. That’s always gonna be the biggest thing. To hunt for players, to hunt for talent, trying to walk into a ballpark and figure that out is still one of my biggest motivations.

    My other passion is helping develop people.

    Mark: Can you give us a favorite hunt-the-player story

    Steve Williams: My favorite one is probably Orlando Hudson. When I was with Toronto, I was an area scout and I inherited Orlando’s draft-and- follow.

    Every game I saw him play in those two years, I never saw him swing-and-miss. And if you know Orlando, he never stops talking as well. He’s one of the best instinctive baseball players that I’ve ever seen.

    He went to Spartanburg Men’s Junior College in South Carolina. And when you talk to him, you see his passion for the game and his overall intelligence for the game. His baseball IQ was unbelievable. And just the way he played, he was always in the right spot, always around the game. He believed in himself tremendously.

    I think a lot of people, because he was so vocal, they didn’t really understand how good a baseball player this man was. He had a tremendous career.

    Every time I saw him play, it was just, wow, always in the right spot, always talking, always a leader around his people. And that’s how his career played out.

    Bobby: You are a scout by trade. And I always tell people that the original form of data is what scouts see. Right? How have you evolved personally, combining what you know to be true in 37 years of being inside the game with what analysts say and what the data tells you about a player?

    Steve Williams: This has always been a numbers game. What the evolution has been is that we’ve taken those numbers and we put them on steroids. And we just dive into them even more. When we take the scouting report and the objective information, how can we blend them together? When they don’t come together, the question that we have to continue to ask ourselves is why?

    Why is this changing? Why is this different? What are we looking at? How can we dig into this a little bit more? What questions should our scouts be asking now at the ballpark? What questions should our analysts be asking our scouts? What should we be giving them to focus on?

    For example, fastball playability. Normally, if I go to the ballpark and I’m sitting there and I’m watching a guy’s fastball play at the top of the zone, my eyes are telling me that this guy’s fastball plays different at the top of the zone.

    Now, when I go back and open my computer, I want to see those same numbers. I want to see the same thing, the spin rate, vertical, all those things. What does it look like? Now, if it’s different from a scouting standpoint, if those numbers are different, there’s a history that his ball doesn’t play that way, the next day I need to ask why is it different?

    Did he make an adjustment? Are they focusing on something different? What is the philosophy of the organization? So we take it as, this is another tool in our tool bag, the objective information, and try not to get, for our scouts to be over analytical, but we want them to understand the numbers so when they walk into the ballpark, they can be extremely focused and targeted about what we feel that we can influence. Every organization can influence different things. Some organizations are really good with hitters. Some organizations are really good with pitchers.

    We want to take the information that we have and advance the evaluation skills that our scouts have as well.

    It’s another tool. It’s not the end all, be all. All this technology, all this information is still very new, but we’re trying to blend all of it together.

    Mark: To close, what more would you like to say about ‘The Buck’ and its goals, which are supporting the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, promoting baseball in the inner cities by educating coaches and mentoring players through annual clinics, awarding scholarships to students who have excelled in academia and who exhibit an interest in baseball and continual education of scouts and coaches within the association.

    Steve Williams: We have reached those goals. We talk about giving back to the community. We’ve seen a shift in ‘The Buck.’ We’ve seen a shift in the membership of ‘The Buck,’ which has gotten younger. College coaches and high school coaches are coming to our meetings and we’re feeding them information that they need to be better at coaching younger players as well.

    So, we’re getting younger coaches, younger scouts, younger front office execs to be able to mentor, to continue to do that. We talk about our coaching staffs from our college coaches to our high school coaches. They’re coming to the meetings and we’re feeding them the information that they need to be better and learn how to coach these young players as well.

    Between going into communities and going to clinics, with the young men and coaching staffs we’ve helped, we’ve probably produced over 400 young players that have been touched by ‘The Buck. We meet once a year, but we’re in touch with our membership all year.

    Bobby: Steve’s impact on this game in 2024 is immeasurable. If you’re in a scouting situation, in a ballpark, if you say ‘Steve Williams,’ someone there is gonna know who he is.

    And it’s not because he’s famous, it’s because he’s been unbelievably impactful in helping guide the careers of so many people inside this game, on the field, off the field, in the front office.

    It’s been my contention that Steve Williams could have, could have been a GM many years ago, 10, 15 years ago, because of his ability to lead people, to make decisions that are driven by information and not emotion and just his command of a room. His ability to command a room is legendary. He is one that’s able to get consensus. People may not like the outcome, but they respect him.

    Listen to the full interview at the link below or click here to listen on other podcast apps.