On this edition of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) welcomes baseball back. Hooray!
He’s then joined by Wake Forest (@WakeBaseball) baseball coach Tom Walter (@WaltWFU), who explains how the school’s state-of-the-art pitching lab came to be (2:18), how information gets translated from the language of a PhD to the language of baseball (5:44), the difference between performance science and analytics now versus when Coach Walter first began coaching (8:31), how the school applies the lab to studying hitters too (10:52), how his program uses shifting and how their shifts adjust based on count (12:06), future developments in performance science (15:03), expectations for this season (16:36), and what the team does in the local community (17:36).
Marwin Gonzalez may have finished ninth in the 2019 Fielding Bible Multi-Position Award voting, but it would be hard to find a player more versatile than he is. Gonzalez started at least 10 games at each corner infield spot and each corner outfield spot. He did much more good than harm at those positions, saving five runs at left field and third base, and one run in right field. He did cost the team two runs at first base, so he wasn’t perfect, but his success at the other three spots made up for any deficiencies.
The Twins needed the help, particularly at third and left, where Miguel Sano’s defense cost the team seven runs and Eddie Rosario’s cost them six runs. Though the Twins won the AL Central, their defense was not their strong suit – except in a few cases, like Gonzalez delivering as advertised.
The Twins won’t need Gonzalez to play third in 2020 with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Donaldson matched a career-high with 15 Runs Saved there with the Braves last season. That total ranked third in the majors behind Matt Chapman (34) and Nolan Arenado (18).
Buxton Among Best When Healthy
The strongest suit of the Twins defense is center fielder Byron Buxton, who saved 10 runs in an injury-shortened season. Buxton probably wouldn’t have challenged Lorenzo Cain for the Fielding Bible Award had he stayed healthy, but he definitely would have given Kevin Kiermaier a run for his money for the AL Gold Glove.
Buxton was as good as it gets on balls hit to the deepest part of center field, catching 96-of-111 in which he had a greater than zero chance to make a play. That was nine plays above his expected total. On a per 100 plays basis, he was better than Cain, for whom catches on deep balls was the most valuable part of his game.
Mitch Garver A Much-Improved Catcher
Mitch Garver wasn’t expected to be the better defensive catcher between him and Jason Castro, but it turned out that way in 2019. Garver made a 18-run improvement from 2018, saving one run, though that doesn’t tell the full story. Where Garver’s improvement came was in pitch framing, where he went from costing the Twins eight runs to saving them a run. He and Tucker Barnhart of the Reds were two catchers who greatly benefited from individual instruction (Barnhart’s improvements are noted in the Reds essay).
Garver’s improvements were documented in the Minnesota media and were attributed to Garver’s working with catching coach Tanner Swanson.
To illustrate the difference Swanson made, consider pitches that BIS plotted that were low, but were over the plate and within one inch of the knees. In 2018, Garver and his pitchers got the call 10% of the time (14-of-141). In 2019, that improved to 31% (39-of-125).
The numbers indicate that Garver still has some work to do, particularly when it comes to blocking pitches and stopping stolen bases. He cost the Twins seven runs in those areas in 2018 and five in 2019.
Max Kepler Gets The Job Done
Max Kepler may not win any Fielding Bible Awards in right field but if you’re looking for consistency from an outfielder, he should be in every discussion. Kepler has saved eight, five, 13, and eight runs in the outfield the last four seasons. He plays right field well and has filled in as the center fielder when Buxton got hurt, saving three runs in 2018 and four in 2019.
What’s interesting to watch about Kepler in right field is that he gets it done without a lot of splash. He had only one sliding or diving catch in 2019. Kepler’s means of making a play there comes down to his route running. By Statcast’s numbers, he matched Mike Trout and Andrew Benintendi in having the most efficiently run routes within three seconds of bat-ball contact.
On this month’s edition of the SIS Baseball Podcast, senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) shares interesting things he’s learned about Matt Chapman, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Didi Gregorius from the new Defensive Runs Saved (1:06).
Mark is then joined by Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore. They discuss the state of the Royals rebuild (3:05), what an MLB manager should be expected to know about analytics and performance science (6:53), how the Royals shift and how they evaluate whether their defensive shifts are working (9:52), the importance of chase rate in evaluating draft prospects (12:33), Dayton’s interest in learning about leadership (16:18), and his advice for those who want to work in baseball (listen before you speak!) (19:37).
Andrew Kyne (@Andrew_Kyne) also joins Mark to talk about The Fielding Bible Volume V, which will be out March 1 (23:12). Andrew also answers a listener question about how different aspects of defensive performance factor into a pitcher’s value (27:18).
Since 2006, Baseball Info Solutions has used The Fielding Bible Awards as its means of honoring the top defensive players in baseball. The Fielding Bible Awards have been voted on by a panel of experts – baseball writers, broadcasters, statistical analysts, and former major league players. Voting is based on both visual observation and performance in objective fielding metrics. With that in mind, we decided to take the voting from past Fielding Bible Awards and use it to come up with a team of the best defensive players in the 2010s.
Our methodology for picking the All-Decade representatives was to use the Fielding Bible voting that was conducted annually throughout the decade. The player with the highest summed vote total from the 10 seasons was deemed the winner at that position. Note that for the years 2010 to 2012, each player’s vote total was multiplied by 1.2 to account for the use of 10 voters in those years compared to 12 in the other years.
Fielding Bible Award Vote Leaders, 2010-2019
Position
Player
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia
Shortstop
Andrelton Simmons
Third Base
Nolan Arenado
Left Field
Alex Gordon
Center Field
Lorenzo Cain
Right Field
Jason Heyward
Catcher
Yadier Molina
Pitcher
Zack Greinke
Multi-Position
Javier Báez
Paul Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for most of the decade. His three Fielding Bible Awards (2013, 2015, 2017) were the most of anyone at first base in the 2010s. Goldschmidt’s 9.5 Scoop Runs Saved rank second to Freddie Freeman among first basemen this decade.
Dustin Pedroia’s four Fielding Bible Awards (2011, 2013, 2014, 2016) are the most for any second baseman since BIS began presenting the honor in 2006. Known for a distinct and sizable crow hop that he combined with great anticipatory skills, Pedroia twice led the position in Defensive Runs Saved during the 2010s and had four straight seasons with at least 10 Runs Saved.
Andrelton Simmons is the only player to win a Fielding Bible Award in six straight seasons. He did it in his first six full seasons in the major leagues (2013 to 2018). His 193 Defensive Runs Saved are the most of any player at any position for the decade, 115 more than the shortstop with the next-highest total (Brandon Crawford, 78).
Nolan Arenado didn’t win a Fielding Bible Award until his third major league season, but once he did, he won three in a row (2015 to 2017). Arenado’s 105 Defensive Runs Saved were the most of any third baseman this decade, even though he didn’t start playing until 2013.
Alex Gordon has had staying power. His four Fielding Bible Awards (2012, 2013, 2014, 2018) are the most of any left fielder, edging Brett Gardner and Carl Crawford by one. His 45 Outfield Arm Runs Saved this decade were the key to his success. They are the most by any outfielder in the 2010s.
Lorenzo Cain became the first center fielder to win the Fielding Bible Award in consecutive seasons (2018, 2019) and also won the Multi-Position award in 2014. Cain’s specialty has been chasing down the deep fly ball. In 2019 he tied the single-season mark for home run robberies (5) since BIS began tracking them in 2004.
Jason Heyward’s consistently excellent defense won him three Fielding Bible Awards (2012, 2014, 2015). He reached double-digits in Defensive Runs Saved in right field in each of the first eight years of the decade. His 141 Runs Saved from Range & Positioning are more than double the next-highest total of any right fielder this decade.
Yadier Molina won three Fielding Bible Awards in the 2000s and three more in the 2010s, giving him six in total. That ties Andrelton Simmons for the most such awards won. Molina set the mark for most Defensive Runs Saved by a catcher with 30 in 2013 (since tied by Roberto Pérez in 2019). He also totaled 29 in 2012 and 26 in 2010.
Zack Greinke’s only Fielding Bible Awards came the last two seasons. But he’s been in the hunt frequently, finishing second four times this decade. Greinke’s kept himself in top shape and been a standout athlete throughout his career. That’s allowed him to get off the mound aggressively to make plays that other pitchers don’t make.
Javier Báez won the Multi-Position award in three consecutive seasons (2016, 2017, 2018) so he comes out on top. This award comes with an asterisk in that it wasn’t given out until 2014. Had it been awarded for the entirety of the decade, there’s a chance that Ben Zobrist, who played excellent defense at second base and in the outfield, would have edged Báez out.
Baseball Info Solutions recently introduced a major update to Defensive Runs Saved that will be rolling out this offseason. We’re splitting DRS for infielders into Positioning, Air, Range, and Throwing components.
In that introductory blog post, we mostly covered how this will affect the Positioning and Range components (which were previously reported together as one “Range & Positioning” metric). However, it’s also important to note how this system can estimate the value an infielder adds with his arm.
So how do we calculate the Throwing component of the improved DRS?
Using ball in play and positioning data charted by BIS Video Scouts, we estimate the chance that the play will be made at the point that the fielder obtains the ball, given the distance he must throw and how long he has to complete the play before the batter/runner reaches safely.
This number is then subtracted from whether the play is made (0 or 1). That value gives us how many plays were saved by throwing, which is then multiplied by an expected run value to generate runs saved.
Consider this play by Javier Baez. The chance that he would make the play from the point at which he obtained the ball – given his distance from first base and time to make the play – is estimated at approximately 39 percent. Baez made the play, so he’s credited with 0.61 plays saved (1 – 0.39).
Baez is a standout with his strong throwing arm at shortstop. With our new methodology, he tied Matt Chapman at +11 Throwing Runs Saved to lead all infielders in 2019.
Here’s a look at the top ten:
Throwing Runs Saved Leaders, 2019
Player
Position
Runs Saved
Javier Baez
SS
11
Matt Chapman
3B
11
Yolmer Sanchez
2B
8
Amed Rosario
SS
7
Andrelton Simmons
SS
7
Jonathan Schoop
2B
7
Nick Ahmed
SS
7
Tim Anderson
SS
7
Carlos Correa
SS
6
Kyle Seager
3B
6
Over the past three seasons, the leaders are Nick Ahmed (+23), Kyle Seager (+23), Matt Chapman (+23), Jean Segura (+17), and Yolmer Sanchez (+17).
This update to DRS allows us to not only split out the Positioning and Range components, but also to better understand an infielder’s value added with his arm. The data is now available on FieldingBible.com and will be featured in The Fielding Bible – Volume V (coming in the spring of 2020).
Stay tuned for more information and updates regarding this improvement to DRS.
It’s a big day for us at Sports Info Solutions. As of today, we have a new-and-improved version of our flagship statistic, Defensive Runs Saved, available to the public via FieldingBible.com.
Previously, infielder DRS (specifically the Range and Positioning portion of DRS) used just the information about the ball in play to determine its likelihood of being turned into an out. That meant that we didn’t have the granularity to tell whether a play was made because the fielder went above and beyond or he was just positioned well.
In essence, the calculation of Range and Positioning Runs Saved boils down to this single question: how well did the fielder do in completing the play given how often similar batted balls are turned into outs?
A few years ago SIS started tracking infielder starting positions on balls in play, which we’ve collected back to 2013. That allows us to evaluate each infield play (groundball or short line drive) at multiple points in time, so instead of just answering the one question above, we can now answer three questions about a play:
Positioning: How much does the expected out rate change once we know how each fielder was positioned?
Range: How much does the expected out rate change between when the ball was hit and when the fielder gets to the ball (or fails to), given that we know where everyone started?
Throwing: How well did the fielder do in completing the play given where he fielded the ball, how hard the ball was hit, and the speed of the runner?
Bundle those components with the evaluation of infield air balls and you get the PART System, which serves as the replacement for the Range and Positioning System for infielders.
We’re really excited to bring all of this work out into the open. After all, we’ve been collecting the required data for several years! We are releasing it via FieldingBible.com for now, and will work to get the numbers updated on other websites over the offseason.
For now, here’s a rundown of how we rated infielders previously and how we rate them now. Remember when you’re looking at these changes, there are two big things the new system accounts for that DRS as you know it didn’t handle so well.
We can now split up infielder performance in terms of Positioning, Air balls, Range, and Throwing. Because positioning tends to be a team decision, that positioning value is actually getting removed from a player’s total. Therefore, a player’s total in this new component of DRS really is his ART Runs Saved.
Because it was difficult to evaluate players on shift plays before, we removed them from DRS. Now that we can measure performance independent of positioning, we can add those plays back in, giving a much more complete picture of a player’s value.
Without further ado, here are the updated leaders at each infield position in 2019. We’re excluding pitchers and catchers here because any impact that would come from the two changes above would negligibly affect those positions.
First Base Defensive Runs Saved Leaders, 2019
We don’t get a very different picture of the top players at first base as a result of these changes, but we do get a little bit of a picture of different players’ usage and competencies. Matt Olson and Christian Walker separate from each other partially because of the quality of their positioning, with Olson getting some negative positioning removed and Walker losing the benefit of strong positioning (more on the DBacks’ positioning in a bit).
Another important but subtle thing to note here is that “Throwing” is a bit of a misnomer, especially for first basemen. Technically it’s a measure of how well you turn balls in play into outs once you’ve fielded them. For first basemen, that often involves running to tag first base or flipping to the pitcher as opposed to what we usually think of as throwing. Joey Votto was quite good in this respect in 2019, while Walker was not.
Second Base Defensive Runs Saved Leaders, 2019
At second base, the inclusion of shift plays was the biggest factor in who came out on top, as both Kolten Wong and Kiké Hernandez combined strong performance with excellent positioning. This is no surprise given that the Cardinals and Dodgers each netted 30 or more Shift Runs Saved in 2019.
Falling off the leaderboard was Yolmer Sanchez. His 17 Positioning Runs Saved buoyed his total in the previous system, but the new system rates him as slightly below average in 2019.
Third Base Defensive Runs Saved Leaders, 2019
Andrew Kyne has already written about the changes to Matt Chapman’s numbers. He cements himself as the best defender relative to his peers, nearly doubling another mainstay at the hot corner, Nolan Arenado. You can see evidence that Chapman’s arm actually gives the A’s license to position him poorly, because he’s able to make up for it on the back end.
Shortstop Defensive Runs Saved Leaders, 2019
The numbers for Javier Baez and Nick Ahmed are really illuminating thanks to the new system’s breakdown. Baez leaps up by 10 runs from the previous system thanks to his excellent performance on shift plays, even with the Cubs ranking second-lowest in shift usage per BIS. His 11 Throwing Runs Saved tied Matt Chapman for the most among infielders, a fact we would not have been able to uncover with the previous system.
Ahmed benefited from Arizona’s outstanding positioning, saving an additional 16 runs. That great positioning gave him quite the boost relative to his peers in the previous DRS system, so he drops back a bit in the overall rankings. He also didn’t perform as well while shifted, so adding those plays back in didn’t help him like it did Baez and shortstop leader Paul DeJong.
This data is now available for all Major League players on FieldingBible.com, and it will also be featured in The Fielding Bible – Volume V (coming in the spring of 2020) and in The Bill James Handbook 2020 (out now).
On this week’s edition of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball podcast, senior research analyst Mark Simon ( @MarkASimonSays) opens the show by talking about the defensive analytics concepts he hopes a manager would know (1:16). Mark then talks with Nationals assistant general manager for baseball research and development, Samuel Mondry-Cohen.
They discuss Sam’s path from batboy to front office executive (4:19), how the Nationals analytics department is structured (7:57), what it’s like to work with the coaching staff and with ace pitcher Max Scherzer (9:53), what his group was working on when the team was 19-31 (12:54), what role the analytics group played in the team’s acquisition of Daniel Hudson (14:12), and tips for pursuing a job in sports analytics (spoiler: Learn to code!) (15:59).
Afterwards Mark is joined by SIS research associate Andrew Kyne ( @Andrew_Kyne). They review the White Sox signing of Yasmani Grandal and look at three other free agents of note (20:16). They also offer their own version of 8 MLB Awards ranging from “Hall of Framer” to “Flat Bat.” (25:20)
Next podcast episode will be in December. See you then!
The 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot came out on Monday, which will inevitably lead to discussion on who deserves to go into the Hall of Fame and who meets the standards of being a Hall of Famer.
But what about the question of whom the public would most like to see go into the Hall of Fame?
Bill James attempted to answer this question in the lead article in the 2020 Bill James Handbook. He made a list of 156 current and retired players whom he felt would receive some suport and had each candidate polled six times over a three-month period this past summer, comparing that player’s Hall of Fame support to three other candidates on each poll.
That resulted in 234 polls and nearly 290-thousand votes, which were analyzed by 12 formulas to measure each player’s Hall of Fame support.
The result of all of the polling was that each player received a Support Score, indicative of how much public support they received. From that, Bill grouped players into six levels of Hall of Fame support. There were 14 players who received overwhelming support – a Support Score of more than 200 (an average score is 100). Some of them are still active. Some are long retired. One (Lou Whitaker) is on the Modern Era Committee Ballot. Four who are on the 2020 BBWAA ballot are marked in bold.
Highest Hall of Fame Support Score
Name
Support Score
Barry Bonds
1,445
Justin Verlander
772
Adrián Beltré
742
Clayton Kershaw
558
Roger Clemens
473
Max Scherzer
439
Pete Rose
414
David Ortiz
343
Joe Jackson
335
Larry Walker
292
Alex Rodriguez
258
Lou Whitaker
247
Manny Ramírez
223
Carlos Beltrán
220
“The most striking thing about the list of players most-favored for Cooperstown selection is the concentration on the list of those who have been kicked out of baseball in gambling scandals (two) or kept out of the Hall of Fame in righteous indignation about PEDs or suspended for some period of time for failing a PED test,” Bill wrote, referring to Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Pete Rose, and Joe Jackson. Further, he pointed out that this isn’t a case of the public being willing to let PED usage slide. The public does care about PED usage, as evidenced by Rafael Palmeiro’s low Support Score (53).
Granted, the polling system was imperfect because it was only polling Twitter users, but Bill noted that any system is going to have sampling issues, and he thinks this survey is “the largest and most extensive study ever of who the public WANTS to get into the Hall of Fame. That’s the goal, anyway.”
Clemens, Bonds, and Walker are within sight of the 75% of votes needed to be elected, but still have a ways to go. Clemens received 59.5% on the last ballot, Bonds 59.1%, and Walker 54.6%.
Clemens and Bonds have inched their way up slowly the last two years, making a gain of about 5 percentage points in that time. They have three ballots left to pick up the remaining votes needed. Walker made a jump of 20.5 percentage points from 2018 to 2019. He needs to do that again this year, in his final year on the ballot, to be elected. Ramirez has much more of an uphill climb, having received 23% of the votes in the last BBWAA balloting.
If it were up to the Twitter-voting public, those four players would be on their way to Cooperstown. We’ll see if there’s any change among the writers to reflect that sentiment. In the meantime, buy the Handbook and check out the rest of Bill’s article to see how the public feels about the rest of the 156 notable players he included in the study.
One example might be winning the lottery. You may claim that it wasn’t a surprise, that you knew playing the birthday of your father’s brother’s nephew’s cousin’s former roommate was always going to win, but you’d be lying to yourself.
There are also things that are not all that surprising. One of those things is Mike Trout being good at baseball. He’s led MLB in Win Shares four of the last six years, with fellow AL West player José Altuve surpassing him the other two times. Therefore, it’s not all that surprising that, for a seventh consecutive season, the (as-of-yet-unreal) Win Shares trophy is staying in the division. What may be surprising is its recipient.
Marcus Semien led the way in 2019 with 36 Win Shares, three more than any of his competitors (Trout, Christian Yelich, and DJ LeMahieu all had 33). It was a career year for the shortstop, who accumulated more Win Shares this season than in his previous two combined and increased his career total (dating back to 2013) by 50%.
Eight other players had at least 29 Win Shares, the threshold set forth by this book’s namesake to designate MVP candidates: Trout, LeMahieu and Alex Bregman from the AL, and Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon, Ketel Marte and Ozzie Albies from the NL.
The AL MVP finalists are Trout, Bregman, and Semien. The NL finalists are Yelich, Bellinger, and Rendon. The winners will be announced Thursday at 6pm ET on MLB Network.
This essay was an excerpt from a section on Win Shares in the 2020 Bill James Handbook, which is on sale now at ACTA Sports and wherever you buy your books.
The following is an excerpt from the 2020 Bill James Handbook, available now at ACTA Sports, Barnes & Noble, Amazon, and wherever you buy your books
By Andrew Kyne Bill James devised “The Favorite Toy” to estimate a player’s probability of breaking a record or reaching a milestone.
In last year’s Handbook, the highest probability of such an event belonged to Albert Pujols, who was projected to have a 97% chance to someday reach 2,000 career runs batted in. With 1,982 RBI entering the season, Pujols was very likely to not only reach the milestone, but to do so early in 2019. Sure enough, he notched his 2,000th with a solo home run on May 9 in Detroit.
This year, the highest probability of reaching a career batting target belongs to another generational talent, Miguel Cabrera. He is now estimated to have a 75% chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Although his power numbers were limited this season, Cabrera still hit for a .282 average and added 139 hits to his career ledger. He now sits 185 hits shy of 3,000.
Some records may never be broken, and the rest of the batting targets feature many longshots. But an obvious player to keep an eye on is Mike Trout, whose name can be found in several places in this section. After hitting a career-best 45 home runs in 2019, Trout is now projected to have a 43% chance to hit 500 home runs, a 29% chance to hit 600 home runs, and a 14% chance to hit more than 762 home runs, the all-time record.
Additionally, BIS has developed a system, separate from The Favorite Toy, that estimates the likelihood that a pitcher will throw a no-hitter. Free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole is currently the most likely to do so at an astonishing 62%, far ahead of any other pitcher. In 2019, Cole had two outings in which he allowed only one hit and three outings in which he allowed two hits. He also found his strikeout touch with the Astros, recording double-digit strikeouts in 21 starts this year.
A couple new names to watch on the most likely no-hitter list are Lucas Giolito (27%) and Luis Castillo (21%). Young pitchers Jack Flaherty (23%) and Blake Snell (23%) were featured on last year’s list as well.
Justin Verlander, Cole’s teammate in Houston, was listed as having a 32% chance at a future no-hitter in last year’s Handbook. Verlander held the Blue Jays without a hit on September 1 for the third no-hitter of his career. Only Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax have thrown more than three career no-hitters. With a 26% chance of another, it’s possible that Verlander could join them.
