If you’ve listened to the Off The Charts Football Podcast, you know that we like to examine things from a “Scouts versus Stats” perspective – and so we’ve brought that back for at least one discussion as we wait for the 2024 season to begin.
This week’s episode considers a question from those perspectives: Who are the Top 10 non-quarterbacks in the NFL.
Ex-NFL scout Matt Manocherian and podcast host Bryce Rossler took the scouts’ perspective. Our director of football analytics Alex Vigderman and research analyst James Weaver created a statistical ranking based on a suite of metrics.
We can tell you that officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. We want to put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side, leveraging both to come to a conclusion.
Fair warning: These are vastly different lists.
Scouts’ Opinion
Statistical Analysis
1. Myles Garrett
1. Derrick Henry
2. Micah Parsons
2. T.J. Watt
3. Tyreek Hill
3. Travis Kelce
4. Justin Jefferson
4. Chris Jones
5. Nick Bosa
5. Justin Jefferson
6. T.J. Watt
6. Tyreek Hill
7. Pat Surtain II
7. Sauce Gardner
8. Maxx Crosby
8. George Kittle
9. Roquan Smith
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
10. Ja’Marr Chase
10. CeeDee Lamb
Now that you’ve finished gasping at a running back – and not Christian McCaffrey – ranking No. 1 in the statistical analysis column, let’s explore the contrast of the two lists.
And let’s get right to the point. Yes, the statistical analysis list has Derrick Henry as the No. 1 non-quarterback.
In simplest form, our stats group created a methodology that is favorable to where Henry stands in the running back universe. He’s No.1 because he’s been “more better” (for lack of a better term) at running back over the last two years than other players are at their respective positions.
The Stats List Methodology
You can listen to the podcast to hear the discussion regarding the surprising analytics-based ranks, but obviously there’s some explanation needed here.
The stats-based ranking includes a two-year average of a player’s results across a handful of flavors of our catch-all Total Points system.
First, there is Points Above Average (PAA) per play, scaled to the positional average and standard deviation. This encapsulates the extent to which the player excels relative to the position on a play-to-play basis.
Second, there is Points Above Replacement (PAR), scaled to the league average and standard deviation. This uses our WAR methodology that measures how valuable a player is in general, incorporating a notion of relative positional value.
This is the first time we’ve mentioned it, but we’re working on a large update to the Total Points system this offseason, which will incorporate a whole bunch of new data points and ideas into the system. We’re not ready to publish those results, but we thought it’d be interesting to include them here to inform our player values.
So, we have each of the scaled PAA per play and PAR values for each of the two versions of Total Points, equally weighted between the four.
The one other element that’s included is player aging. Players start to drop off in production within just a few years of coming into the league, so we want to make sure that we’re capturing that. We computed an aging factor for each of the above metrics and applied that to each player’s two-year averages, to make it more like a projection for 2024.
What the Stats Showed
Having Derrick Henry number 1 is a bit rich, no? Especially given that McCaffrey exists?
Let’s take the second point first. Over the last two years, Henry has generated almost 30 more PAA than McCaffrey as a rusher, which doesn’t get sufficiently counterbalanced by McCaffrey’s receiving excellence.
The gap in rushing is in large part to the difference in their circumstances. Henry has continued to be productive year after year despite having the most carries in the NFL when the offensive line blew a block in front of him over the last two years, and last year he turned more than 60 percent of those into gains. Henry’s elusiveness has not eluded him yet, with similar or better broken and missed tackle rates to McCaffrey’s.
The positional value question is a valid one, though. How is a running back rated so highly in general? In short, we can only measure what we have access to, and that informs how we value positions.
A running back can fumble or get stuffed for a loss on third down, losing a big chunk of value, in a way that a pass rusher or a center does not often do. So the depth of the floor for a running back is more extreme, at least in the statistical record. That means that within the Points Above Replacement framework, the floor for rushers is lower than you think, and therefore the position as a whole is considered more valuable.
The other big contrast
The scouts’ list has several edge rushers on it. The stats list is lacking in them.
Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are at worst among the handful of best defensive players in the league, so there’s not much to say about them to argue for their inclusion at the top of a crowded field of edge rushers. Parsons is probably the pick if you need one guy to wreck a play, but consistent with their general approach, Garrett got the nod because of how he impacts all phases of the game.
An otherworldly motor against the pass and the run got Maxx Crosby onto the list, and the scouts were indignant at his exclusion from the stats-based list—but only moderately indignant compared to what happened at the top of the board.
So why are many of the top pass rushers in the league not at the top of the stats-based list (although the upcoming Total Points updates will do a lot to make up for that)?
There are more excellent edge rushers than there are excellent interior players, so a single player at the top stands out more in the interior. Chris Jones projects to be one of the biggest risers in the updated Total Points because of how much he dominates as a pass rusher from the interior, as he ranked first and third in 2023 and 2022 in pressure rate, respectively. This isn’t true for the edge rushers, where there are many solid producers.
Parsons will have a similar jump to Jones, but he’s competing at a much tougher position at the top. There are six edge rushers in the top 20 on the stats-based list, compared to just two interior defenders.
Also, our measure of the floor of a defensive front player isn’t as low as it is for other positions—a bad play by a cornerback or a running back is more likely to be a big liability. As a result, when we determine replacement level for each position, we don’t have as much value assigned to pass rushers as we do other positions.
Other highlights from the stats list
Travis Kelce might have been a more palatable choice for this list a year ago, but it’s worth noting that he still posted the best receiving PAA among tight ends last season. George Kittle’s balanced skill set got him on the list, coming in the Top 2 in Receiving and Blocking Total Points among tight ends. However, even at a younger age, it doesn’t make up for the gap in receiving production.
The lists differed on which of the top cornerbacks cracked their lists, with Sauce Gardner getting the nod thanks to his consistent production across his first two seasons. He finished in the top 10 each of the last two seasons in yards allowed per coverage snap, yielding fewer than 700 receiving yards in nearly two years.
Amon-Ra St. Brown snuck onto the stats-based list because of how well he does his job, even though his job might be limited relative to others at the position. He is as money as it gets in big spots, ranking second in the NFL in both On-Target Catch Rate and third down completions over the last two years.
CeeDee Lamb is there because of his production in 2023, specifically ranking first in Receiving Total Points. The updates to Total Points will ding him because of his merely good catch rate on accurate balls, which is why he ended up below St. Brown, for example.
Other highlights from the scouts’ list
While the stats-based list was heavy on wide receivers, the scouts-based list was heavy on edge rushers, to the point that they felt the need to stretch for a couple of less-valuable positions.
In the interest of being less boring, the scouts included Roquan Smith as an off-ball linebacker choice. He’s a downhill player and an “enforcer,” per Matt, and while he doesn’t have the crazy athleticism that other potential candidates do, he closed the gap in that respect in 2023 in terms of being an excellent well-rounded player.
The scouts really only considered two cornerbacks for their list, and they went with Pat Surtain II over Gardner as the prototypical corner with versatility and consistency that very few corners have.
Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb were candidates for the back end of their list, with Chase getting the nod because “he’s more of a headache in more ways that lead to touchdowns for him and for other players on his offense.” This also contributed to the choice of Tyreek Hill as their top receiver.
Want to hear the rest of the debate and discussion? Check out Off The Charts wherever you get your podcasts.
We’ve reached prediction season for the NFL. A big part of dissecting the upcoming season is analyzing the schedule and predicting which teams will overperform or underperform their expectations.
Expectations these days come from the sportsbooks, especially through win totals. These markets have been posted and bettors have begun forming their stance on each individual team. The lines will move all offseason long, as more information and opinions will move the lines in one direction or another.
At SIS, we have created a pre-game prediction model to predict the spreads, totals, team totals, and moneylines of each game using a multitude of data points that we collect. We also constructed the model to be able to run for the entire season, allowing us to run simulations on the season and create win total prices of our own. The model went 18-13-1 in over-under predictions on team’s preseason win totals last season.
We have run our first simulation of the year and the Football R&D team selected their favorite wagering opportunities in the win total markets based on the model’s output. The three of us (Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver) each selected four hypothetical wagers we would make in a snake draft style on the Off the Charts Football Podcast.
These are our model’s win total projections.
Team
DraftKings Win Total
Model Projected Win Totals
Difference
Raiders
6.5
10.4
Over 3.9
Saints
7.5
10.7
3.2
Bears
8.5
10.7
2.2
Lions
10.5
12.3
1.8
Buccaneers
8.5
10.3
1.8
Browns
8.5
9.8
1.3
Packers
9.5
10.7
1.2
Seahawks
7.5
8.7
1.2
Jets
9.5
10.6
1.1
Patriots
4.5
5.5
1
Ravens
11.5
12.1
0.6
Bills
10.5
11.1
0.6
Giants
6.5
7.1
0.6
Cowboys
10.5
11.1
0.6
Rams
8.5
9
0.5
Cardinals
6.5
6.9
0.4
Bengals
10.5
10.9
0.4
Texans
9.5
9.4
Under -0.1
Panthers
5.5
5.2
-0.3
Dolphins
9.5
9
-0.5
Chiefs
11.5
10.9
-0.6
Broncos
5.5
4.7
-0.8
Steelers
8.5
7.4
-1.1
Jaguars
8.5
7.4
-1.1
Falcons
9.5
8.1
-1.4
Chargers
8.5
6.9
-1.6
49ers
11.5
9.8
-1.7
Colts
8.5
6.1
-2.4
Vikings
6.5
4
-2.5
Titans
6.5
4
-2.5
Commanders
6.5
3.2
-3.3
Eagles
10.5
6.8
-3.7
Model Overview (How did we get these numbers?)
Our model utilizes 18 features that are a combination of game, team, and player level metrics.
Game level metrics include whether or not the game is in the postseason, weather predictions like wind speed and precipitation probability, and a home team indicator.
Some of the team level metrics include weighted points for and points against averages, both offensive and defensive weighted penalty yards, and some possession metrics in the form of snaps per game or drive. Each of these metrics is computed for the team’s past 7 games, with the most recent weighted more heavily.
We use a weighted 16-game average with our Total Points for the player metrics. We calculate the average Total Points for each skill (Passer, Rusher, Pass Rush, etc.) for every player per snap, and then aggregate the projected values for each game to the team level using each player’s projected snap counts for the game.
Then, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate variance in player performance by simulating 1,000 games for each player. After each simulation, all of the metrics are incorporated into a Lasso regression model to predict the team’s point total. The distributions of the predictions are aggregated to an average and spread so that point estimates and alternate point estimates can be drawn from the distribution.
Now that there are lines for each game, we can simulate 1,000 regular seasons based on the moneyline output and take the average win total for each team.
Analyzing the Overs
The Off The Charts podcast crew of Bryce Rossler, Alex Vigderman and I went through the over-under possibilities here and drafted the ones they felt best about (Listen to the episode here).
They went with the Raiders, Saints, Browns, Packers, Patriots and Cardinals on the ‘over’ side (listen to the episode to find out who took whom and their reasoning).
The model picked the Raiders and Saints to go over their Vegas win total by the widest margin. The Raiders are projected to have 10.4 wins and the Saints 10.7, good for 3.9 and 3.2 wins of value, respectively.
Both teams finished last season strong in regards to the various model inputs. The Saints are No. 1 in our Points For weighted average and No. 5 in Points Against weighted average, which goes back to the last 7 games played of last season. Additionally, Derek Carr ranks 2nd in the Passer Points per play weighted average coming into this season (5th if you include projected snap count).
The Raiders added Gardner Minshew, who is 8th in Passer Points per play weighted average and will battle Aidan O’Connell for the starting QB spot. They also come into the season 9th and 6th in the Points For and Points Against weighted averages, respectively.
The Browns and Packers come in at 1.3 and 1.2 wins above their current win totals of 8.5 and 9.5. The Browns will welcome back Deshaun Watson after catching lightning in a bottle with Joe Flacco at the end of last season. The Packers also finished strong, pushing the 49ers to the brink in the divisional round and are ranked second in recency-weighted Points For.
Our crew drafted both the Patriots and Cardinals even though the model total only slightly exceeded the DraftKings number. The reason: quarterback optimism.
Unders
After a total collapse at the end of last season, the Eagles come in with the most value towards the under, as they are projected to win only 6.8 games compared to a win total of 10.5. They rank 26th and 30th in recent points for and points against.
Bryce took both the Eagles and the Vikings, who are projected for 4 wins in our model when DraftKings has the over-under set at 6.5. Bryce doesn’t have faith in J.J. McCarthy and believes it will take him more than a season to get to a good place.
“This is a player who doesn’t have a lot of reps at game speed,” Bryce said. “I know he started several years at Michigan but he’s not passing a lot in that offense. I think Year 1 in the NFL is going to be very rough. I know they feel like as an organization that they’ve found their quarterback. But I don’t see it in Year 1.”
The Vikings defense also ranked in the bottom eight in points against, with a bottom-five rank in defensive Total Points over the full season.
Two of the other unders taken in our “draft” were the Chargers, who have a 6.9 expected win value compared to their 8.5 wins total, and the 49ers, who have a 9.8 expected win value compared to a win total of 11.5.
The Chargers are in the midst of a small rebuild and culture change with a new coach, and our drafter, Alex, wants to see it to believe it with another new coaching staff and a reworked skill position group.
The 49ers, fresh off the Super Bowl loss, were in a few dogfights down the stretch in the playoffs, and the defense wasn’t as good as its reputation last year, hence the reasons for the differential.
“I look at their schedule … they get the AFC East, and they lump in the Chiefs,” James said on our podcast (that’s me!) “Improved NFC, Super Bowl hangover being real. I just think 11.5, that’s pretty high.”
A Battle in Charlotte
Two of our draftees, Alex and Bryce, will go head-to-head this season when it comes to the Carolina Panthers.
Bryce has taken the under 5.5 because he doesn’t see a scenario in which Bryce Young can be a good quarterback for this team.
Alex, on the other hand, thinks the hate has gone too far, and has a little more optimism with a new head coach in Dave Canales (who improved the quarterback play of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith over the last few years).
“This is my pick in the genre of ‘Rookie quarterback might take them somewhere,’” Alex said. “I think you could also have ‘Rookie quarterback is anomalously bad’ and people get kind of insane about it. A year ago people were feeling reasonably good about the rest of the team, offensive line and defense. I do think there’s an overreaction and they can get a little bit of a bounceback.”
The model sides with Bryce by the slimmest of margins, projecting 5.2 wins to the win total of 5.5.
In today’s pass-happy league, the No. 1 concern for defenses has been affecting the play of the quarterback. Allowing time from a clean pocket to make a throw spells doom for defenses.
We have seen the massive contracts given to high-end pass rushers who make game-changing plays. Nick Bosa, Chris Jones, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, and T.J. Watt all find themselves in the Top 25 in average annual contract value where that list is primarily made up of quarterbacks and a few receivers.
To that point, we set out to project the next crop of sack artists using some of our metrics. The big pain with projecting pass rush performance, though, is that context plays a huge role. An interior player who primarily plays on early downs has a much harder time than a situational pass rusher coming off the edge.
We created Expected Pressure Percentage and Pressure Percentage Plus-Minus a few years ago for this reason. The former uses game situation, player alignment, and quarterback drop type to estimate how likely a player is to generate pressure on each play, and the latter is how much the defender performed above or below that expectation.
In order to better predict year-over-year sack production, we looked into four stats to see how predictive each of these are towards the following year’s sack output.
– the previous year sack percentage
– pressure percentage
– expected pressure percentage
– pressure percentage plus-minus of pass rushers
Once we dove into what has predictive value, we looked at some interesting candidates for positive or negative sack regression in 2024.
Methodology
Sack percentage, pressure percentage, expected pressure percentage, and pressure percentage plus-minus were aggregated for every player in their previous season going back to 2019.
These four metrics were then used as features in linear regression models to predict the sack percentage of the player’s next season. Players were only considered if they had 100 pass rushes in each season.
The significance of each variable and adjusted R2 values of each model were analyzed to see which metrics have the best year-over-year predictive value. The adjusted R2 value is a 0-to-1 measure of how well the features explain the variability of the dependent variable, in this case current year sack percentage, and is adjusted based on how many features there are in the model.
Results
Model
Adjusted R2
Statistically Significant?
Sack%
0.13
Yes
Pressure%
0.27
Yes
Expected Pressure%
0.29
Yes
Pressure% +/-
0.03
Yes
Expected Pressure% + Pressure% +/-
0.32
Yes/Yes
For starters, all of these are statistically significant, meaning that an increase or decrease in one of these features meaningfully impacts the following year’s sack percentage.
Also, we used sack percentage instead of actual sacks because we need to factor how many pass rushes a player had in a given season. Playing time can be affected by a variety of factors, so we are keeping it simple by focusing on per-play performance.
Sack percentage comes in with the second lowest adjusted R2 value when predicting next season’s sack percentage. Considering that sacks are more output than process when it comes to good pass rush, this makes sense. Sacks come at such a low sample that having one more or fewer can drastically impact this percentage, especially year-over-year.
Expected pressure percentage shows a slightly higher adjusted R2 value than pressure percentage and are the two with the best explanation of variability in next season’s sack percentage. This is the process driven argument, as getting more pressure on a quarterback shows better predictive value than your sack percentage from the previous year.
Pressure percentage plus-minus comes in at the bottom. This metric strips out the opportunities to get a sack and looks solely at the skill portion. Volume is a big part in getting sacks and situational factors are very impactful, so the low explanation in variability here (low adjusted R2) makes sense.
The best model combines expected pressure percentage with pressure percentage plus-minus, coming in with an adjusted R2 of 0.32. Factoring in the skill component with the expected measure makes the model better explain variability, and it does so better than just using pressure percentage because it weighs the situational factors more strongly.
With the latter model leading the way, let’s use that to predict some sack percentages for 2024.
2024 Outlook
Decline in Wattage
T.J. Watt once again led the league in sacks for the 3rd time in 2023 with 19. However, his unimpressive expected pressure rate of 10.3% would suggest he is in for a drop in sack percentage by 1.8 percentage points in 2024. This would be a massive drop off by Watt’s standards, putting him roughly at 10 sacks this upcoming season based if he had roughly 500 pass rushes. Leading the league in sacks three times is very impressive, but sustaining that production over time is a very tall task.
Trading Trey?
Trey Hendrickson walked back his trade request with the Bengals by expressing his desire to win a Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Hendrickson, who had a career high 17.5 sacks with the Bengals last season, is a candidate due for a drop in sack percentage by 2.2 percentage points. His expected pressure rate put him in the middle of the pack last season at 10.1%. Looking at a sell high opportunity, the return on Hendrickson might be enough to warrant a trade.
The Youthful Cameron Jordan
Cam Jordan may be past his prime at age 34, but he can still affect the quarterback at a high rate. His 10.3% expected pressure percentage last year came only with a 0.5% sack percentage. According to the model, this should result in a bump to 11.5% in his 14th season in the league. Can Jordan turn back the clock? Maybe not, but he should have higher production than his 2.5 sacks a season ago.
A More Hungry Lion
Aidan Hutchinson is projected to take another step forward and increase his sack percentage to 2.2% this year, good for another half-sack. Hutchinson took a leap last season, ranking 8th in pressure percentage among those with 30 pressures and 12th in sacks. Another step forward would be huge for a Lions team coming oh so close to getting to the Super Bowl last season.
Sack Title Contenders
Looking at the predicted sack percentages for next year and using the pass rushes a player had last year, Maxx Crosby (13) and Aidan Hutchinson (13) are our top contenders to take home the sack crown, with Danielle Hunter, T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and Khalil Mack just behind. Josh Uche, who had only 214 pass rushes last season, is projected to have a higher sack percentage this year at 2.2%. Playing with Matthew Judon on the other side, Uche has a chance to accumulate a high sack total given more opportunities.
Conclusion
Using advanced pressure metrics gives us more of a sense of predicted output going forward. Sacks are the output, but their predictive power is minimal. Looking at the process of getting a sack leads us to seeing who may be a diamond in the rough poised for a breakout season or someone who might be overvalued. After all, this is arguably the second-most important position in football, so getting these players right is critical to success.
While many crave all the NFL Draft Team Grades that publications put out the day after the draft, including us on both accounts, there are a lot of unknowns at that point. Of course, we all have our own NFL Draft prospect rankings heading into that weekend, but those players have yet to play a snap in the NFL. So, how can we really grade a team’s draft class if those players haven’t yet stepped onto an NFL field?
It usually takes at least three years to see how well a draft class turned out. While said publications, including us, don’t want to wait three years before putting out their grades on a draft class, we do both. This is the time that teams must decide on 5th-year options for their 1st Round picks. Additionally, this gives these players a rookie season and two full years after that to get settled in and playing time under their belt.
Three years ago, Sports Info Solutions published the 3rd edition of The SIS Football Rookie Handbook. After the 2021 NFL Draft, we, just as many others, posted our NFL Draft Team Grades, which can be seen here. It’s worth noting we don’t give out letter grades like most. We rank the teams from 1 to 32 in terms of how much talent they got as an entire class.
Just as I did last year, in the article you can see here, I’ve developed a system to evaluate the draft classes using Total Points relative to position as the foundation. Three seasons have now gone by since the 2021 NFL Draft. So, let’s use that to truly see how each team did with getting value from its selections and draft class as a whole.
Our TLDR Top Things To Know
We ranked the Lions No. 1 in our 2021 post-draft ranking. Three years later the Chiefs rank No. 1 according to our stat for assessing it, Total Points Score (TP Score), followed by the Lions, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Bears.
The Rams ranked last both in our original rankings in 2021 and in TP Score three years later.
The Jaguars, Broncos, and Jets accrued the most Total Points from their draft classes
How much value did teams get?
Let’s take a look at how we ranked teams after the 2021 NFL Draft and then who got the most and least value. See the Appendix below to see how all 32 teams ranked in our 2021 rankings and in TP Score.
Here are the teams we ranked at the top immediately following the draft back in 2021. To see our scouting grading scale, check out our NFL Draft site.
Top 5 Teams in 2021 Post-Draft Rankings
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Lions
1
6.60
Dolphins
2
6.46
Browns
3
6.44
Jaguars
4
6.40
Falcons
5
6.38
TP Score will be defined below, but here are the top 5 teams based on how much value they received from their draft class.
Top 5 Teams in TP Score
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Chiefs
1
83.33
Lions
2
80.82
Jaguars
3
80.72
Dolphins
4
66.22
Bears
5
65.39
In our post-draft rankings in 2021, we tabbed the Lions as the No. 1 draft class, and they just got edged out by the Chiefs for No. 1 three years later. In Brad Holmes’ first draft with the Lions, he was able to draft two of the top 10 players in Total Points over the last three years: Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown, with both signing contract extensions just before the Draft.
We also had the Jaguars and Dolphins in our top 5 who also ended up there after three seasons. Trevor Lawrence has been a mixed bag, but when he’s looked good, he’s been really good, amassing the most Total Points in the draft class. Additionally, Tyson Campbell’s 116 Total Points is the 6th-most. The Dolphins nailed their first four picks in Jaylen Waddle (59 Total Points), Jaelan Phillips (80), Jevon Holland (91), and Liam Eichenberg (61).
As for the Chiefs, we were high on Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith, grading them as 6.6 or 6.7 players, but they even surpassed those expectations, as we ranked them 21st post-draft. Between the three of them, they totaled 263 Total Points and would’ve ranked 10th among full teams themselves. While Joshua Kaindoh and Cornell Powell didn’t contribute much, they still hit on four of their six picks, which is a great percentage.
The Bears round out the top 5 of TP Score, and we originally ranked them 16th immediately following the 2021 Draft. Justin Fields finally started to turn the corner, though he was traded to Pittsburgh this offseason. We were also high on Teven Jenkins, but the other five members of their class graded out between a 5.9 and 6.3 for us. We felt they would all contribute, but most, especially Larry Borom and Khalil Herbert, exceeded our expectations.
Conversely, here are the bottom 5 teams from our 2021 rankings.
Bottom 5 Teams in 2021 Post-Draft Rankings
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Bills
28
6.14
Saints
29
6.12
Cowboys
30
6.11
Colts
31
6.07
Rams
32
5.82
Based on TP Score, here are the worst teams in terms of getting value from their 2021 draft picks.
Bottom 5 Teams in TP Score
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Giants
28
20.22
Panthers
29
20.02
Seahawks
30
20.00
Vikings
31
17.08
Rams
32
15.48
The big bullseye here was the Rams. We were very low on their draft class initially, and they haven’t done anything to disprove that. While we admit omitting Ernest Jones from the book was a big miss on our part, he garnered 75 of their 114 Total Points from the entire class. He and Ben Skowronek were the only picks to play above average relative to their position among the draft class.
While we ranked the Seahawks (26th) and Vikings (23rd) low initially, we missed on the Giants (12th) and Panthers (9th).
Kadarius Toney and Azeez Ojulari have been above-average players, but Aaron Robinson and Rodarius Williams (SIS No. 5 CB) have been disappointing in New York. As for Carolina, aside from their three above-average players (Jaycee Horn, Brady Christensen, and Tommy Tremble), six of their eight other picks we felt were 6.4s or better, but they’ve only combined for a total of 26 Total Points.
Determining Total Points Score
In case you missed last year’s article, let’s explain the process of creating each team’s TP Score. When looking back to see how good or bad a specific draft class was, there are two main points to detect:
How productive were the draft picks on the field?
How much talent did the team draft relative to the amount of picks they made?
As in: Did they hit on one player or did they hit on multiple players?
To determine the value of the draft classes, I used Total Points, our flagship player value stat, from across the last three seasons. However, for those of you who are familiar with Total Points, it gives a lot of extra weight to quarterbacks. With that said, Trevor Lawrence alone would have had the 14th best draft class with his 232 Total Points if we just used raw Total Points.
While there is a reason we weigh quarterbacks so much more compared to other positions (they are pretty important), using that raw number in this sense isn’t going to make for a perfect match. While getting your franchise quarterback is a huge win, it doesn’t automatically give you a top class. This year, Jacksonville ended up with the 3rd-highest TP Score, and I think most would agree they had a good class, but not the best.
Now, answering question 2 takes into account how well a team drafted throughout the entirety of the draft class. I found the average Total Points per player from the 2021 class at each position, including UDFAs who have taken at least one offensive or defensive snap, since they were also available to be selected.
The positional averages are shown in the table below.
Pos
TP per Player
QB
56.7
RB
8.5
WR
12.6
TE
15.2
OL
30.1
DE
17.2
DT
12.4
LB
23.2
CB
34.3
S
30.1
The TP Score, as referenced earlier, is what’s used to rank the teams. It is calculated as follows:
Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick
In these 4 steps, we are essentially answering how productive the draft class was and how many picks were “hits”. Let’s run through an example using our No. 1 team, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here is their draft class:
Pos
Player
Total Points
LB
Nick Bolton
75
OL
Creed Humphrey
103
DE
Joshua Kaindoh
0
TE
Noah Gray
37
WR
Cornell Powell
0
OL
Trey Smith
85
Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
300
Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
300 Total Points divided by 6 selections equals 50.00
Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
Bolton, Humphrey, Gray, and Smith all accumulated a Total Points number that was above average compared to their position groups
50.00 times 66.7% (4 out of 6) equals 33.33
Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick
50.00 plus 33.33 equals 83.33, which is their TP Score
—
So, to summarize, we took the team’s Total Points gained from these players, dispersed it throughout the entire class and then gave a bump based on how many above-average players they drafted.
Now that we know how the teams ranked and how the TP Score is calculated, let’s dive into some of the other details.
Other Key Takeaways
– No teams hit on at least 75% of their picks that year. At least two teams did that in each of the past two seasons, but none did with this class. However, the Bears and Lions went 5-of-7 (71%), the Chiefs went 4-of-6 (67%), and the Jets went 6-of-10 (60%). Levi Onwuzurike of the Lions came less than a half-point short of the DT average or he would’ve given Detroit a sixth hit and the No. 1 class.
– The Jets’ six hits were the most of any team. They ranked 7th in TP Score. They hit on six of their first seven picks, getting at least 30 Total Points from each of them, though three of them have played significant snaps for other teams. Zach Wilson has been traded to Denver and hasn’t been anything like what Jets fans hoped, but he did sneak into being an above-average player in what was a brutal quarterback class.
– Every team drafted at least one player who has played above the positional average compared to the rest of the draft class. However, the Saints (Payton Turner), Raiders (Alex Leatherwood), 49ers (Trey Lance), Titans (Caleb Farley), Seahawks (Dee Eskridge), Rams (Tutu Atwell), and Texans (Davis Mills) were the only teams whose first draft selection wasn’t an above-average player. This is the second year in a row that’s been the case for Las Vegas, Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Houston.
– The three teams with the most raw Total Points are the Jaguars (467), Broncos (388), and Jets (360). Jacksonville leading the way isn’t a surprise given how valuable Trevor Lawrence has been. Denver and New York ranked No. 6 and No. 7 in TP Score, as well. We detailed the Jets already, so for the Broncos, they hit a massive home run with Patrick Surtain II, who has accumulated 161 Total Points, 2nd-most in the class behind Lawrence.
– The Seahawks (45), Giants (91), and Rams (114) totaled the least amount of Total Points from their 2021 draft class. Seattle didn’t have a pick in Round 1 and had only three picks total. They missed with their first selection Dee Eskridge in Round 2. Their only hit was Tre Brown in the 4th Round, as he’s accumulated 35 of their 45 Total Points.
– Of the three first-rounders who weren’t above-average players (not including Alex Leatherwood), it’s no surprise none of them got their 5th-year Option picked up. Of the 16 players whose options were picked up, minus those who received extensions, the only one who didn’t rank in the top 8 of their position group among the class was Alijah Vera-Tucker. His 48 Total Points placed him 16th among the offensive linemen.
– Now that we’re three years into this, we can begin to take a broader look across seasons.
The Chiefs have the highest average TP Score across the last three seasons with 65.48, nearly 10 points higher than the Jaguars in 2nd. Check out the entire list in the Appendix.
– Conversely, the Rams are the only team with an average ranking in the bottom 8, and they also rank dead last with an average TP Score of just 23.58. As a whole, this does make some sense. They haven’t made a 1st-Round pick in any of these seasons, so it’s likely they aren’t going to get a high-end impact player, but it’s telling that they’ve struggled to find much value in the later rounds of drafts.
– Now the real question is how do our initial rankings compare to those numbers?
The Chiefs have had the highest average TP Score in three years, but we’ve given them the 2nd-worst cumulative ranking post-draft. Omitting L’Jarius Snead in 2020 played into that, but that’s clearly the biggest miss on our part. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve been able to take players who fit their scheme perfectly and make them work when they may not elsewhere.
Additionally, our average top 10 post-draft teams who also have an average TP Score rank in the top 10 include the Bengals, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Broncos. Conversely, matches in the bottom 10 include the Colts, Seahawks, and Vikings. Teams we match in the middle 12 include the Titans, Cowboys, and Jets.
While we’ve been way too low on the Chiefs post-draft each year, conversely, we’ve been way too high on the Ravens. We’ve averaged giving them the 5th-best (tied) class across the three seasons immediately after the draft, but they have just the 25th-best TP Score.
How do our Initial Grades Compare?
44% (14/32) of our initial ranks were in the correct half, meaning a team we ranked between 1 and 16 or 17 and 32 was ultimately in that tier, which is a dip from the last two seasons. However, we hit 3 of the top 5 and the last-ranked Rams. Additionally, 17 of the teams were only a single-digit difference from post-draft to now.
The biggest differences in our initial grades and these final rankings were the Chiefs (20 spots), Saints (20 spots), and the Panthers (20 spots). We had Kansas City and New Orleans fairly low post-draft and we were high on Carolina. The Saints and Panthers flip-flopped, as we ranked the Saints 29th initially and they ended up 9th, whereas the Panthers were initially ranked 9th and ended up 29th. The 20-spot difference as the biggest difference is an improvement over previous years.
For New Orleans, even with Payton Turner, who we felt was a versatile backup with a 6.2 grade, not working out, Pete Werner and Paulson Adebo have been outstanding and exceeded our initial grades. We graded them as a 6.2 and 6.4, respectively.
Some players we unfortunately omitted from the Handbook were Brandon Stephens, Ernest Jones, and Dan Moore Jr. Stephens’ 94 Total Points is 4th-most among CBs in the class and just outside the top 10 overall. Jones and Moore each have accumulated 75 and 68 Total Points, respectively.
What were some of our biggest misses elsewhere? All three players selected in Round 3 that we didn’t feature in the book have been big contributors. That includes Stephens, Jones, and Milton Williams. Additionally, while we felt Tyson Campbell (6.5 grade, SIS No. 12 CB) and Paulson Adebo (6.4 grade, SIS No. 15 CB) would be No. 3 CBs by Year 2, which is a strong role given today’s NFL, they’ve outperformed those grades, ranking No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, among CBs in the class and were top 6 in Total Points overall.
Let’s take a look at some of our biggest wins.
Excluding Dan Moore Jr., the other five players selected in Round 4 that we didn’t feature in the book (Kene Nwangwu, Zech McPhearson, Janarius Robinson, Buddy Johnson, and Jacob Harris), have combined for -1 Total Point.
Anthony Schwartz was our 36th-ranked WR and was drafted in the 3rd Round, but has -5 Total Points in 25 games, worst among all WRs in the class. Three other players drafted in the 4th Round ranked low on our boards and have struggled. Josh Ball (SIS No. 20 OT) has -1 Total Point (worst among OL). Jordan Smith (SIS No. 26 ED) has -1 Total Point (worst among DE/EDGE). Joshua Kaindoh was our last-ranked EDGE (No. 31) and has 0 Total Points, only played in three games, and is no longer on the team.
The table below shows the top Total Points earners across the past three seasons from the draft class and how we graded and ranked them in the Handbook pre-draft.
Rank
Position
Player
Total Points
SIS Grade
SIS Pos Rank
1
QB
Trevor Lawrence
232
7.2
1
2
CB
Patrick Surtain II
161
7.0
1
3
LB
Micah Parsons
148
6.7
4
4
CB
Paulson Adebo
132
6.4
15
5
QB
Justin Fields
132
6.9
2
6
CB
Tyson Campbell
116
6.5
12
7
OG
Landon Dickerson
113
6.7
3 (OC)
8
WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
111
6.4
11
9
QB
Mac Jones
111
6.6
5
10
OT
Penei Sewell
106
7.2
1
As mentioned before, we were a bit low on Adebo and Campbell. We graded Parsons as a Will linebacker with some pass-rush upside, but had no idea the impact he’d eventually make in the NFL. It’s easy to see why Detroit and Jacksonville ranked in our top 3 in TP Score, and top 4 post-draft, as each have two players on this list.
Conclusion
Nobody really knows how a draft class is going to turn out immediately after the draft, yet it still makes sense to grade and rank the teams based on player grades for an initial reaction.
Post-draft grades are great in a sense, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Once three years go by and we’ve seen what these players have done in the NFL, we can get a better sense of how good the team drafted.
These rankings are all about finding which teams drafted the best draft class as a whole, not just who got the best player. While there are some players who didn’t play for the team that drafted them for the entirety of the past three seasons, that wasn’t taken into account since those decisions came after the initial drafting of these players, which is what this is based on.
An example of that from this class is Jason Pinnock, who was drafted by the Jets and has 54 Total Points, but played only 12 games and about 200 snaps for them in 2021 before playing 30 games and nearly 1,500 snaps across the past two seasons for the Giants.
It’s not a perfect science, but it does a good job at pulling player value and seeing how well teams drafted as a whole class relative to the amount of selections they were afforded.
Three years later, the comparison between our initial rankings and these rankings aren’t terrible for Year 3 (in both our grading and our scouting process). We made some improvements from Year 2 to Year 3, like adding 34 more players to the Handbook and featuring 19 (6%) more who were drafted. Though, we hope this article next year takes a large positive swing as we went into Year 4 in the 2022 draft cycle and the first year with our new website. As with everything we do here, we hope this improves year over year and can look back and say we kept getting better every day.
Appendix
2021 SIS Post-Draft Rankings based on the SIS Football Rookie Handbook
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Lions
1
6.60
Dolphins
2
6.46
Browns
3
6.44
Jaguars
4
6.40
Falcons
5
6.38
Packers
6
6.37
Chargers
7
6.37
Broncos
8
6.36
Panthers
9
6.35
Patriots
10
6.35
Bengals
11
6.34
Giants
12
6.32
49ers
13
6.30
Titans
14
6.30
Raiders
15
6.30
Bears
16
6.30
Texans
17
6.30
Ravens
18
6.28
Eagles
19
6.26
Steelers
20
6.23
Chiefs
21
6.23
Jets
22
6.22
Vikings
23
6.20
Cardinals
24
6.20
Buccaneers
25
6.20
Seahawks
26
6.20
Washington
27
6.14
Bills
28
6.14
Saints
29
6.12
Cowboys
30
6.11
Colts
31
6.07
Rams
32
5.82
TP Rank based on TP Score and how much value each team got from their draft picks over the last three seasons
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Chiefs
1
83.33
Lions
2
80.82
Jaguars
3
80.72
Dolphins
4
66.22
Bears
5
65.39
Broncos
6
58.20
Jets
7
57.60
Commanders
8
47.55
Saints
9
46.89
Texans
10
45.12
Bills
11
41.42
49ers
12
39.75
Eagles
13
39.32
Falcons
14
36.89
Steelers
15
36.00
Cowboys
16
35.83
Patriots
17
35.23
Colts
18
35.02
Raiders
19
34.29
Chargers
20
33.04
Ravens
21
32.31
Browns
22
31.88
Packers
23
29.37
Cardinals
24
28.98
Titans
25
24.00
Bengals
26
22.75
Buccaneers
27
22.59
Giants
28
20.22
Panthers
29
20.02
Seahawks
30
20.00
Vikings
31
17.08
Rams
32
15.48
Average TP Score and ranking across all three seasons (the 2019-2021 draft classes after their first three seasons in 2022-2024)
With the majority of impactful offseason moves complete, it’s time to turn to the upcoming season. We’ve decided to keep the optimism from draft season going by talking about breakout players for 2024.
To keep things simple, we’re just looking for players who haven’t yet made a Pro Bowl but who we think might this year. Some of these selections take into consideration the depth at the position in that player’s conference, but every player has shown hallmarks of opportunity and production that suggest they could take a leap this year.
The SIS Football R&D crew of former NFL scout (and SIS COO) Matt Manocherian, our director of football analytics, Alex Vigderman, and research analysts James Weaver and Bryce Rossler, named their choices via a draft format, and they each provided their own notes below (with some occasional commentary from others sprinkled in).
To listen along with their selections, check out this Off the Charts Football Podcast episode.
Matt Manocherian – Rashan Gary, Packers EDGE
Who made these rules? This is the easiest pick. It’s so easy that it’s uninteresting. I’m not sure how it’s possible that Gary hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet, but this seems like a matter of time.
One of my favorite metrics for pass rushers is Pressure Rate Above Expectation (Pressure % +/-), which looks at how often a pass rusher in a given situation and alignment creates pressure compared to an average player in that context. Gary has been among the leaders in this stat for each of the last three seasons, and that doesn’t even reflect the 10 holding penalties that he drew over that time.
Gary is 26 years old and was 5th among linebackers in Pass Rush Total Points in 2023. If he can stay healthy and play with some leads this year, it feels more likely than not that he ends up in the Pro Bowl.
Reed and Wicks were each taken by the Packers in the 2023 Draft, and they proceeded to have identical per-play production. They were within 0.1 yards per route run of each other, and had identical Total Points per route run to three decimals.
Coming out of the draft, I viewed them as possible overachievers based on their (also nearly identical) performance against press coverage and otherwise, which I’ve found to be a positive indicator. So this is a bet on that phenomenon, with Reed winning my vote because we (and the Packers) graded him as a much better prospect.
It also doesn’t hurt that after the bye week last year (Week 6), Jordan Love ranked among the best in passing Total Points per play and first in Boom Percentage (the rate of plays gaining at least 1 EPA).
3. James Weaver – Drake London, Falcons WR
As a Top 10 pick in 2022, London was expected to come in and make an immediate impact to a Falcons offense going through a transition period. The problem has been below-average quarterback play at best and an offensive scheme that has limited his potential.
Even battling those two issues, London still put up 866 and 905 receiving yards in his first two seasons in Atlanta. Now, Kirk Cousins steps in as QB1 and Zac Robinson from the Rams takes over as offensive coordinator, each coming from potent offenses at their previous stops.
With London’s 6’4” frame, look for him to get more than 7 end zone targets and 2 touchdowns like he had in 2023.
4. Bryce Rossler – Chris Olave, Saints WR
Olave has recorded 1,000-yard seasons in each of his first two seasons with the Saints, but the touchdowns haven’t been there. He had just 8 end zone targets in 2023, which is pretty pedestrian considering the overall volume he sees, but he did rank 5th in deep targets (20+ yards)with 28. An uptick in red zone usage could spell a breakout year for him in 2024.
5. Bryce – Devonte Wyatt, Packers DT
Wyatt didn’t see a lot of playing time in his rookie season, but he flashed considerably in Year 2. He ranked first in Pressure Rate +/- and second in raw pressure rate among DTs last year, and his combination of power and explosiveness is evident on film. He’ll be a better fit under a new defensive coordinator this year, and the staff has already said they’ll let him pin his ears back going forward.
6. James – Bryce Huff, Eagles EDGE
Huff had the best year of his career with the Jets in 2023, recording 10 sacks on 60 pressures and had the 11th-highest Pressure Rate +/- at 5% above expectation. He also accounted for the highest tackle total of his career at 29.
Now part of a talented Eagles defense coordinated by Vic Fangio, look for Huff to take advantage of more 1-on-1 opportunities to get to the opposing quarterback. He will be part of a rotation with Nolan Smith and Josh Sweat and have the opportunity to be fresh when needing to make an impact play.
7. Alex – Martin Emerson Jr., Browns CB
This was the only “Who?” pick of the draft, which comes with pride and shame. Emerson was taken in the 3rd round of the 2022 Draft and has been quietly productive in both of his NFL seasons. He’s been one of the better pass defenders in the league across a few compelling metrics: Total Points per play, Boom Percentage Allowed, and Deserved Catch Rate (an adjusted catch rate accounting for drops and uncatchable passes).
2022
2023
Total Points per play
16th
10th
Boom% Allowed
9th
6th
Deserved Catch Rate
7th
11th
* Among players targeted at least 50 times
8. Matt – Jalen Carter, Eagles DT
You guys really stink at this game. You are making it too easy for me. Jalen Carter didn’t even start on the Eagles’ broken defense last year, and he still was a Will Anderson away from winning Defensive Rookie of the Year.
In terms of advanced stats, Carter was good-but-not-elite last year. With a new defensive staff, a larger role, and an Aaron Donald-sized hole in the conference, I think this will be the first of many Pro Bowls in Carter’s career.
I’m sure Martin Emerson is great though…
9. Matt – Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals WR
(or Bijan Robinson, if you prefer to play by the spirit of the activity)
Seriously?! You made the rules! It’s not my fault that you are all bad at this game. Marvin Harrison Junior has never made a Pro Bowl. How is this pick even controversial?
If you take rookies off the table, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts are attractive picks for me for similar reasons to James’ pick of Drake London. I also like Devone Achane’s chances to take Raheem Mostert’s Pro Bowl spot.
You know what? I take it back. I’m bad at this game. My picks are too good, so they are boring. I prefer the “spirit” of Alex taking Martin Emerson Jr. because he deserves legitimate credit if that dude makes the Pro Bowl.
10. Alex – Jaquan Brisker, Bears S
Brisker shows some markers of being a playmaking safety who puts up a variety of statistics that can wow awards voters. SIS graded him as a probable strong starter coming out of the draft in 2022, so there’s some upside and pedigree here.
He got his hand on the ball (via a pass breakup, forced fumble, etc.) at the second-highest rate of any defender in the league, including 9 pass breakups (second at the position to not-exactly-a-safety Brian Branch). That also included 4 dropped interceptions, which could easily go the other way and make a huge impact.
While he’s not a box safety or anything, he did rush the passer a couple dozen times in 2023, generating pressure almost half the time. If he pairs a few sacks with some turnovers, that’s a recipe for a breakout.
11. James – Chase Brown, Bengals RB
With Joe Mixon out of the picture, Brown will have every opportunity to fight for the RB1 role in a productive offense with Joe Burrow back in the picture.
Last year as a rookie, Brown started to see an increase in usage from Week 13 on and took advantage. He was tied for third in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in broken or missed tackles per attempt. He will be battling for time with newly acquired Zack Moss, but Brown being in a familiar system in year two will give him a slight advantage.
12. Bryce – Anthony Richardson, Colts QB
Richardson looked like a star in the making before an unfortunate injury derailed his rookie season. He ranked 10th in passing Total Points per play up to the point of his season ending in Week 5–which is pretty good for a rookie–and his ability as a rusher was obvious. Dual threats who produce on the ground tend to get a lot of fanfare, and Richardson is poised to pump the box score in 2024 if he can come back full strength.
If you want our full thoughts on the players your team has added plus any UDFA, you can check out our Big Board for tons of great information. And if you’d like to contribute to next year’s draft cycle, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position.
Welcome to our annual NFL Draft Report Card, in which we grade both the teams and ourselves on how well they fared in this NFL Draft.
First off, we grade ourselves on how many players were drafted that we had featured on our NFL Draft website. After having 69% (174 of 254) of drafted players in the book in 2019, 78% (199 of 255) in 2020, 84% (218 of 259) in 2021, 86% (226 of 262) in 2022 (Year 1 online), and 92% (238 of 259) in 2023, we finished the 2024 draft cycle with 94% (241 of 257).
When taking out specialists and international players, which we currently don’t write up, there were only 10 players drafted who weren’t on the site and only 2 of which we didn’t formally watch. That’s over 99% of the NFL Draft covered! Plus, many players we had on the site who didn’t get drafted have already signed free agent deals with teams.
Using our grades, we attempted to rank each team’s draft class. Just like in our article from last season, we assigned all players who were drafted but not on the site a 5.4, which is the equivalent to a training camp body. We took those grades for each player and divided that by the number of selections the team had.
These rankings do not account for positional value, the value of where players were drafted, or trades teams made; it is literally based on the grades we gave the players who were drafted and how much talent we feel teams got from their selections compared to the number of picks they made.
And with that, the 2024 Best Draft Class, with an average grade of 6.46, goes to the Chicago Bears. They may have only had five draft picks, but they made the most of them. Even with drafting a punter in the 4th Round, they still managed to obtain good talent with their selections.
The Bears draft class is in the table below.
Chicago Bears 2024 Draft Class
Pick
Position
Player
College
Grade
1
QB
Caleb Williams
USC
7.0
9
WR
Rome Odunze
Washington
6.9
75
OT
Kiran Amegadjie
Yale
6.5
122
P
Tory Taylor
Iowa
5.4
144
ED
Austin Booker
Kansas
6.5
After trading away the No. 1 pick in 2023 to give the Panthers Bryce Young and our top Draft Class, the Bears took their quarterback of the future in USC’s Caleb Williams. Williams was our top-ranked QB and our No. 2 player overall.
With their second selection of Round 1, Chicago grabbed wide receiver Rome Odunze out of Washington. Odunze was our No. 3 WR, but No. 5 player overall. In almost any other draft, he’s likely the top WR on the board, but he’s behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in this class. However, that shouldn’t impact his play at the next level. He’ll partner up with DJ Moore and recently-acquired Keenan Allen to form a legit three-headed monster at receiver.
With no picks in the 2nd Round, the Bears next selection came at No. 75 when they selected tackle Kiran Amegadjie (SIS No. 10 OT, No. 56 Overall) out of Yale. Unfortunately, Amegadjie missed all but four games in 2023 due to injury. With that injury, he hasn’t played a ton of football and is very raw, but the measurables and what he’s shown while he has been on the field suggests he has a lot of upside.
Their final two picks were Tory Taylor, punter out of Iowa, and edge rusher Austin Booker (SIS No. 6 ED, No. 50 Overall), out of Kansas. Taylor may be turning 27-years-old soon, but he’s one of the better punter prospects to come out in recent years. Booker was a great value in the 5th Round, as the Bears traded back in to take him since he was still on the board.
SIS Top Draft Classes
Year
Team
Previous Season
Following Season
2nd Season
2019
Tennessee Titans
9-7 (No Playoffs)
9-7 (L, AFC Champ)
11-5 (L, Wild Card)
2020
Cleveland Browns
6-10 (No Playoffs)
11-5 (L, Divisional)
8-9
2021
Detroit Lions
5-11 (No Playoffs)
3-13-1
9-8
2022
New York Jets
4-13 (No Playoffs)
7-10
7-10
2023
Carolina Panthers
7-10 (No Playoffs)
2-15
?
2024
Chicago Bears
7-10 (No Playoffs)
?
?
Since we grade players based on what they will be at the beginning of Year 2, let’s widen the table of our recent Draft Class winners.
After winning as top class in 2019, the Titans made consecutive playoff appearances. While the Browns made the playoffs the next year, the turmoil in that locker room in 2021 forced a fall to 8-9. The Lions did take a dip in 2021 in the first year of a new regime, but they took a huge step forward in 2022, nearly making the playoffs, and then going all the way to the NFC Championship this past season.
As for the Jets, they improved their record in 2022 and had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year (Garret Wilson and Sauce Gardner), but expectations fell in 2023 when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. The Panthers were tough to watch last season, and Bryce Young really struggled, but he wasn’t helped much with a coaching change midseason and a rough roster around him.
What does that mean for the Bears? They decided to move on from Justin Fields and will now have this year’s No. 1 overall pick lining up at quarterback to go with a ton of weapons on the offensive side. The team likely isn’t in a position to compete for a Super Bowl just yet, but they have a lot of the core pieces to make a run sooner rather than later. Don’t be shocked if the NFC North is one of the toughest divisions in football in 2024.
Now, let’s check out how the rest of the teams fared in our rankings. Here are the draft classes ranked in order of their grade:
2024 Final Rankings
Rank
Team
# of Picks
Draft Grade
1
Bears
5
6.46
2
Giants
6
6.42
3
Lions
6
6.38
4
Titans
7
6.31
5
Steelers
7
6.29
6
Chiefs
7
6.27
7
Broncos
7
6.26
8
Patriots
8
6.24
9
Panthers
7
6.23
10
Cardinals
12
6.21
11
Chargers
9
6.20
12
Raiders
8
6.20
13
Buccaneers
7
6.19
14
Rams
10
6.18
15
Ravens
9
6.17
16
Texans
9
6.17
17
49ers
8
6.16
18
Saints
7
6.16
19
Commanders
9
6.13
20
Jets
7
6.11
21
Bengals
10
6.10
22
Vikings
7
6.10
23
Seahawks
8
6.09
24
Falcons
8
6.09
25
Bills
10
6.08
26
Cowboys
8
6.08
27
Packers
11
6.07
28
Colts
9
6.07
29
Dolphins
7
6.06
30
Eagles
9
6.04
31
Browns
6
5.95
32
Jaguars
9
5.93
Some thought the Giants could draft a quarterback, but they decided not to, taking our No. 4 overall player, Malik Nabers, instead. The Lions, Titans, and Steelers rounded out the top 5. Detroit was able to grab four players from our top 100 in their six selections. They’ve had Top-8 classes all four years of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell era. Additionally, the Panthers put together the No. 9 class after last year’s No. 1, as they look to get back on track.
The bottom three teams for 2023, listed 30 to 32, were the Eagles, Browns, and Jaguars.
We’ll preface this by saying the Eagles knocked their first two picks out of the park, grabbing two of our top 6 cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell (SIS No. 3 CB, No. 18 Overall) and Cooper DeJean (SIS No. 6 CB, No. 34 Overall). They also added running back Will Shipley (SIS No. 5 RB) in the 4th Round, who we feel could be a difference maker on 3rd downs. However, the rest of their picks, while most have a lot of upside with high ceilings, we feel they are backups early on in their careers. Their Top-2 draft classes from the past two years have set them up in a good spot moving forward regardless how most of this year’s class shakes out.
The Browns only had six picks this year with their first one not coming until Round 2 and only three in the top 200 picks, but they only took one player we felt was going to be a starter by his second season: guard Zak Zinter (SIS No. 8 OG). Understandably, we were a bit lower on defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (SIS DT No. 12) than consensus, as we feel he’s a top backup early in his career. The rest of their picks should prove as strong depth, but it may be a few years until they become solid starters.
This year’s worst class goes to the Jaguars. This comes a year after they ranked No. 31. They traded back and selected Brian Thomas Jr. (SIS No. 5 WR, No. 23 Overall), who should become a strong target and deep threat for Trevor Lawrence, but aside from him, only Javon Foster (SIS No. 15 OT) graded out as better than a top backup. While Maason Smith (SIS No. 13 DT) has the measurables and a high ceiling, we thought a mid-2nd Round pick was a bit of a reach.
The 49ers took home our worst class in 2023 and still made the Super Bowl, so there is still hope for Jacksonville moving forward.
Key Facts
* With only 16 players drafted this year who weren’t featured on the site, many teams added a lot of talent in this year’s draft. Only two teams drafted more than one player who wasn’t featured on the site: the Colts and Vikings, though one of Minnesota’s picks was a kicker.
* All four teams in the AFC West ranked in our top 12 this year, further suggesting that the division could get back on track as being one of the toughest in the NFL.
* Typically teams with a lot of picks rank near the bottom just due to sheer volume and only a limited number of quality players, but the Cardinals need a shoutout this year. Even with drafting 12 players, they came in with the No. 10 ranking for us. Getting Marvin Harrison Jr., our No. 1 overall player, at No. 4 helped set them up for success throughout, but they also drafted four other players who we graded a 6.5 as starting-level players.
* The Panthers have the best average SIS Draft Class rank over our six seasons doing this. However, the Panthers and Lions are tied with the best grade average based on our player grades over that same span. The Titans, Raiders, and Ravens round out the top 5 draft class ranks. Compared to last year, Baltimore dropped a spot to fifth, Tennessee and Las Vegas entered the top 5, and Philadelphia dropped out. The Colts continue to bring up the rear. Last year’s No. 11 ranking is the only time they’ve ever ranked in our top 25, so it may be a while before they climb up the rankings.
* Only four players from our top 100 went undrafted this year, but each quickly signed UDFA deals with teams soon after the draft concluded. Leonard Taylor III (SIS No. 5 DT, No. 46 Overall) has signed with the Jets. Gabriel Murphy (SIS No. 9 ED, No. 61 Overall) has signed with the Vikings. Jalen Sundell (SIS No. 6 OG, No. 72 Overall) has signed with the Browns. Tight end Dallin Holker (SIS No. 6 TE, No. 75 Overall) has signed with the Saints.
Ivan Pace Jr. went undrafted last year after being labeled our No. 51 overall player, and he played his way into Minnesota’s starting lineup and onto our All-Rookie Team.
How the NFL Draft Site Compared to the Draft
Let’s take a look at how the website stacks up to the NFL’s thinking of where players were selected.
On offense, the first player drafted at every position except RB was the No. 1 player on our board. Jonathon Brooks was the first running back off the board, but was our No. 2 ranked RB.
On defense, the top player at each position matched the first player drafted for nose tackle, middle linebacker, and safety. At defensive tackle, edge rusher, Will linebacker, and cornerback, the top player drafted at the position was either our No. 2 or No. 3 player.
The top 5 quarterbacks that went off the board matched our top 5, but in a slightly different order. The positions that had four of the top 5 going off the board that matched our rankings were wide receiver, tackle (matched the top 4), center, nose tackle, edge, and cornerback. The only two players we graded within the top 5 of their position group who were not drafted were DT Leonard Taylor III (previously mentioned) and Nathan Pickering (SIS No. 5 NT), though Pickering was ranked No. 376 on our board.
Overdrafted?
Bo Nix (SIS No. 6 QB) was our only player graded as a 6.3 or lower to be drafted in Round 1 and was actually ranked outside our top 100. Denver looks to be a perfect fit for him, but he’s got some things to prove before showing he can potentially be a win-with quarterback, which is why we graded him as a circumstantial starter/quality backup.
The only offensive player we graded a 5.9 who went off the board before Round 3 was Ben Sinnott (SIS No. 7 TE) who was drafted at No. 53. His athletic testing numbers suggest he’s got high upside, but the athleticism didn’t translate to the field enough to warrant a starting grade early in his career.
As mentioned before, Maason Smith and Michael Hall Jr. were both off the board in Round 2, but we had a 5.9 top backup grade on both of them. Both are young and have high ceilings, but we feel it may take a couple years of development before they can become impact starters.
Staying on the defensive side of the ball, Edgerrin Cooper (SIS No. 3 WLB) was taken with pick No. 45. He may have been our No. 3 WLB, but we also only had a 5.9 grade on him. He’s a ridiculous athlete with a ton of upside, but it’ll be a couple years before he reaches a starting level. Additionally, Marshawn Kneeland (SIS No. 14 ED) was taken No. 56 overall. He has some potential versatility, but we also graded him as a 5.9 top backup.
Some other players we believe were taken too early for the roles we project them to are Tip Reiman, Marist Liufau, and Jalyx Hunt, three players who were Top-100 selections and received grades a notch below a top backup.
The first eligible player (non-specialist or international player) taken who we did not give a strong enough grade to reach the threshold we set for the website was Falcons WR Casey Washington, taken in the 6th round, No. 187 overall. Additionally, the first player who went off the board that we didn’t get a formal look or report on was Texans LB Jamal Hill who went one pick later at No. 188. The only other player we didn’t get a look at was Michael Jurgens who was selected by the Vikings in the 7th Round at No. 230.
Underdrafted?
Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (SIS No. 2 TE, No. 25 Overall) was the only 6.7 not selected inside the top 100, and he went to the Panthers with the first pick of Round 4 at No. 101.
The Lions scooped up Mekhi Wingo (SIS No. 3 DT, No. 39 Overall) and Christian Mahogany (SIS No. 5 OG, No. 51 Overall) in the 6th Round, which we feel is great value.
The only other 6.5 or above players selected in the final two rounds was Walter Rouse (SIS No. 12 OT, No. 70 Overall) by the Vikings at pick No. 177 and Beaux Limmer (SIS No. 3 OC, No. 49 Overall) who went to the Rams at pick No. 217. We like all of these players’ chances to come in and outperform their draft positions.
Conclusion
Every year the SIS scouting department looks to make improvements, and this year was no different. With the SIS Football Operation growing the way it is, our time is somewhat limited when it comes to scouting. However, we got a huge help from some of our Live Data scouts in January and February to knock out many of the final first looks we needed to get on players.
Our six-man scouting team, consisting of Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, and Jeremy Percy, put in the hard work to finalize over 670 reports, of which 388 were featured on our NFL Draft site. This is the first time in three years we put less than 400 players on the site, but that’s due to a limited number of draftable players because of the COVID year and us tightening up our grading.
Even with having less players on the site, the number of drafted non-specialist/fullback/international players not featured on our site went down again, as did the number of players drafted on whom we didn’t have eyes on at all (only 2 out of 257!). As we noted, our Top-100 evaluations were a big success with 72 of our top 100 drafted in the first 100 picks and only four not selected at all.
That the first player not featured on the website, outside of the specialists/international players, was drafted in the 6th round is also a huge success. With Qwan’tez Stiggers and Travis Clayton being drafted out of the CFL and as an English rugby player, respectively, we may just have to start expanding our reach moving forward.
We want to thank The 33rd Team for allowing us to house our draft content on their site this year, as we really feel like it helped expand the reach of our scouting reports and showed everyone the type of quality reports and data we produce.
Please continue to check out our NFL Draft website as the offseason continues. If you’d like to be involved in our scouting and charting processes next year, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position. We’re taking applications and interviewing for next year’s class now.
Every year since before I can remember, I do my own Mock Draft. I only do one, and it’s done within a day or two prior to Draft Day.
Not only do I try to tackle the first round, but I predict the entire draft, all 257 picks.
What order do the QBs go in at the top? How many offensive tackles and wide receivers land in Round 1? Who will be Mr. Irrelevant?
Without projecting trades and, instead, trying to match players to teams, I attempt to answer those questions and more now.
Round 1
Pick
Team
Player
College
1
Bears
QB Caleb Williams
USC
2
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels
LSU
3
Patriots
QB Drake Maye
North Carolina
4
Cardinals
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State
5
Chargers
WR Malik Nabers
LSU
6
Giants
WR Rome Odunze
Washington
7
Titans
OL Joe Alt
Notre Dame
8
Falcons
ED Dallas Turner
Alabama
9
Bears
DT Byron Murphy II
Texas
10
Jets
TE Brock Bowers
Georgia
11
Vikings
QB J.J. McCarthy
Michigan
12
Broncos
ED Jared Verse
Florida State
13
Raiders
OL JC Latham
Alabama
14
Saints
OL Olu Fashanu
Penn State
15
Colts
CB Quinyon Mitchell
Toledo
16
Seahawks
OL Troy Fautanu
Washington
17
Jaguars
CB Terrion Arnold
Alabama
18
Bengals
DT Jer’Zhan Newton
Illinois
19
Rams
ED Laiatu Latu
UCLA
20
Steelers
OL Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State
21
Dolphins
OL Amarius Mims
Georgia
22
Eagles
OL Tyler Guyton
Oklahoma
23
Vikings
OL Graham Barton
Duke
24
Cowboys
OL Jackson Powers-Johnson
Oregon
25
Packers
CB Cooper DeJean
Iowa
26
Buccaneers
ED Chop Robinson
Penn State
27
Cardinals
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
Alabama
28
Bills
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU
29
Lions
DT Darius Robinson
Missouri
30
Ravens
OL Jordan Morgan
Arizona
31
49ers
CB Nate Wiggins
Clemson
32
Chiefs
WR Adonai Mitchell
Texas
Round 2
Pick
Team
Player
College
33
Panthers
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Missouri
34
Patriots
WR Xavier Worthy
Texas
35
Cardinals
OL Zach Frazier
West Virginia
36
Commanders
OL Kingsley Suamataia
BYU
37
Chargers
CB Mike Sainristil
Michigan
38
Titans
ED Chris Braswell
Alabama
39
Panthers
WR Troy Franklin
Oregon
40
Commanders
ED Marshawn Kneeland
Western Michigan
41
Packers
LB Edgerrin Cooper
Texas A&M
42
Texans
CB Kamari Lassiter
Georgia
43
Falcons
S Tyler Nubin
Minnesota
44
Raiders
QB Michael Penix Jr.
Washington
45
Saints
WR Xavier Legette
South Carolina
46
Colts
WR Keon Coleman
Florida State
47
Giants
S Jaden Hicks
Washington State
48
Jaguars
WR Ladd McConkey
Georgia
49
Bengals
OL Roger Rosengarten
Washington
50
Eagles
CB T.J. Tampa
Iowa State
51
Steelers
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Washington
52
Rams
QB Bo Nix
Oregon
53
Eagles
OL Cooper Beebe
Kansas State
54
Browns
DL Michael Hall Jr.
Ohio State
55
Dolphins
ED Austin Booker
Kansas
56
Cowboys
RB Jonathon Brooks
Texas
57
Buccaneers
CB Max Melton
Rutgers
58
Packers
OL Kiran Amegadjie
Yale
59
Texans
LB Trevin Wallace
Kentucky
60
Bills
S Kamren Kinchens
Miami FL
61
Lions
CB Caelen Carson
Wake Forest
62
Ravens
OL Christian Haynes
UConn
63
49ers
OL Patrick Paul
Houston
64
Chiefs
OL Christian Mahogany
Boston College
Round 3
Pick
Team
Player
College
65
Panthers
TE Ben Sinnott
Kansas State
66
Cardinals
RB Trey Benson
Florida State
67
Commanders
CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Louisville
68
Patriots
DT Kris Jenkins
Michigan
69
Chargers
OL Dominick Puni
Kansas
70
Giants
RB MarShawn Lloyd
USC
71
Cardinals
ED Adisa Isaac
Penn State
72
Jets
OL Blake Fisher
Notre Dame
73
Lions
S Javon Bullard
Georgia
74
Falcons
DT Ruke Orhorhoro
Clemson
75
Bears
ED Bralen Trice
Washington
76
Broncos
CB Kris Abrams-Draine
Missouri
77
Raiders
WR Ricky Pearsall
Florida
78
Commanders
S Cole Bishop
Utah
79
Falcons
WR Malachi Corley
Western Kentucky
80
Bengals
WR Roman Wilson
Michigan
81
Seahawks
QB Spencer Rattler
South Carolina
82
Colts
S Calen Bullock
USC
83
Rams
DT T’Vondre Sweat
Texas
84
Steelers
OL Beaux Limmer
Arkansas
85
Browns
LB Payton Wilson
NC State
86
Texans
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
Texas
87
Cowboys
DT Braden Fiske
Florida State
88
Packers
DT Leonard Taylor III
Miami FL
89
Buccaneers
LB Junior Colson
Michigan
90
Cardinals
ED Gabriel Murphy
UCLA
91
Packers
OL Zak Zinter
Michigan
92
Buccaneers
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Texas Tech
93
Ravens
WR Jalen McMillan
Washington
94
49ers
LB Cedric Gray
North Carolina
95
Chiefs
CB Andru Phillips
Kentucky
96
Jaguars
DT Brandon Dorlus
Oregon
97
Bengals
TE Theo Johnson
Penn State
98
Steelers
CB Khyree Jackson
Oregon
99
Rams
WR Devontez Walker
North Carolina
100
Commanders
WR Javon Baker
UCF
Round 4
Pick
Team
Player
College
101
Panthers
DT Maason Smith
LSU
102
Seahawks
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Clemson
103
Patriots
CB D.J. James
Auburn
104
Cardinals
LB Jaylan Ford
Texas
105
Chargers
RB Blake Corum
Michigan
106
Titans
DT Mekhi Wingo
LSU
107
Giants
CB Josh Newton
TCU
108
Vikings
ED Jonah Elliss
Utah
109
Falcons
OL Matt Goncalves
Pittsburgh
110
Chargers
DT DeWayne Carter
Duke
111
Jets
WR Johnny Wilson
Florida State
112
Raiders
OL Tanor Bortolini
Wisconsin
113
Ravens
S Malik Mustapha
Wake Forest
114
Jaguars
OL Brandon Coleman
TCU
115
Bengals
LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
Washington
116
Jaguars
ED Brennan Jackson
Washington State
117
Colts
RB Audric Estime
Notre Dame
118
Seahawks
TE Jared Wiley
TCU
119
Steelers
DT Gabe Hall
Baylor
120
Eagles
WR Jermaine Burton
Alabama
121
Broncos
QB Michael Pratt
Tulane
122
Bears
OL Travis Glover
Georgia State
123
Texans
RB Jaylen Wright
Tennessee
124
49ers
WR Brenden Rice
USC
125
Buccaneers
OL Hunter Nourzad
Penn State
126
Packers
S Tykee Smith
Georgia
127
Texans
DT Justin Eboigbe
Alabama
128
Bills
RB Braelon Allen
Wisconsin
129
Vikings
WR Malik Washington
Virginia
130
Ravens
ED Mohamed Kamara
Colorado State
131
Chiefs
RB Bucky Irving
Oregon
132
49ers
S Kitan Oladapo
Oregon State
133
Bills
CB Renardo Green
Florida State
134
Jets
S Jaylin Simpson
Auburn
135
49ers
OL Sedrick Van Pran
Georgia
Round 5
Pick
Team
Player
College
136
Broncos
ED Jalyx Hunt
Houston Christian
137
Patriots
S Dominique Hampton
Washington
138
Cardinals
OL Javion Cohen
Miami FL
139
Commanders
WR Jamari Thrash
Louisville
140
Chargers
QB Joe Milton III
Tennessee
141
Panthers
ED Xavier Thomas
Clemson
142
Panthers
CB Chau Smith-Wade
Washington State
143
Falcons
QB Austin Reed
Western Kentucky
144
Bills
ED Cedric Johnson
Ole Miss
145
Broncos
OL Walter Rouse
Oklahoma
146
Titans
LB James Williams
Miami FL
147
Broncos
LB Tommy Eichenberg
Ohio State
148
Raiders
ED Myles Cole
Texas Tech
149
Bengals
CB Jarrian Jones
Florida State
150
Saints
OL Mason McCormick
South Dakota State
151
Colts
CB Cam Hart
Notre Dame
152
Commanders
P Austin McNamara
Texas Tech
153
Jaguars
OL Javon Foster
Missouri
154
Rams
RB Will Shipley
Clemson
155
Rams
OL Delmar Glaze
Maryland
156
Browns
WR Jacob Cowing
Arizona
157
Vikings
LB Ty’Ron Hopper
Missouri
158
Dolphins
TE Tanner McLachlan
Arizona
159
Chiefs
LB Marist Liufau
Notre Dame
160
Bills
OL Layden Robinson
Texas A&M
161
Eagles
ED Javon Solomon
Troy
162
Cardinals
CB Nehemiah Pritchett
Auburn
163
Bills
DT McKinnley Jackson
Texas A&M
164
Lions
OT Christian Jones
Texas
165
Ravens
LB Jackson Sirmon
California
166
Giants
LB Tyrice Knight
UTEP
167
Vikings
S Sione Vaki
Utah
168
Saints
DT Jordan Jefferson
LSU
169
Packers
DT Khristian Boyd
Northern Iowa
170
Saints
CB Kalen King
Penn State
171
Eagles
S Josh Proctor
Ohio State
172
Eagles
CB Decamerion Richardson
Mississippi State
173
Chiefs
OL Caedan Wallace
Penn State
174
Cowboys
OL Garret Greenfield
South Dakota State
175
Saints
S Jaylen Key
Alabama
176
49ers
OL Sataoa Laumea
Utah
Round 6
Pick
Team
Player
College
177
Vikings
DT Tyler Davis
Clemson
178
Steelers
LB Curtis Jacobs
Penn State
179
Seahawks
CB Qwan’tez Stiggers
CFL
180
Patriots
OL Tylan Grable
UCF
181
Chargers
S Beau Brade
Maryland
182
Titans
WR Luke McCaffrey
Rice
183
Giants
QB Sam Hartman
Notre Dame
184
Dolphins
OL Andrew Raym
Oklahoma
185
Jets
QB Jordan Travis
Florida State
186
Cardinals
S Evan Williams
Oregon
187
Falcons
LB Aaron Casey
Indiana
188
Texans
OL Charles Turner III
LSU
189
Texans
CB Johnny Dixon
Penn State
190
Saints
TE Tip Reiman
Illinois
191
Colts
OL Jalen Sundell
North Dakota State
192
Seahawks
ED Jaylen Harrell
Michigan
193
Patriots
TE Jaheim Bell
Florida State
194
Bengals
DT Justin Rogers
Auburn
195
Steelers
OL LaDarius Henderson
Michigan
196
Rams
OL Kingsley Eguakun
Florida
197
Falcons
CB Elijah Jones
Boston College
198
Dolphins
DL Keith Randolph Jr.
Illinois
199
Saints
LB Kalen DeLoach
Florida State
200
Bills
WR Jordan Whittington
Texas
201
Lions
OL Trevor Keegan
Michigan
202
Packers
RB Ray Davis
Kentucky
203
Jets
LB Jordan Magee
Temple
204
Bills
OL Isaiah Adams
Illinois
205
Lions
WR Bub Means
Pittsburgh
206
Browns
TE Cade Stover
Ohio State
207
Broncos
RB Blake Watson
Memphis
208
Raiders
CB Dwight McGlothern
Arkansas
209
Rams
K Joshua Karty
Stanford
210
Eagles
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford
Minnesota
211
49ers
RB Isaac Guerendo
Louisville
212
Jaguars
S Evan Williams
Oregon
213
Rams
CB Marcellas Dial
South Carolina
214
Bengals
WR Joshua Cephus
UTSA
215
49ers
CB Carlton Johnson
Fresno State
216
Cowboys
LB Nathaniel Watson
Mississippi State
217
Rams
DT Marcus Harris
Auburn
218
Ravens
TE AJ Barner
Michigan
219
Packers
OL Dylan McMahon
NC State
220
Buccaneers
QB Carter Bradley
South Alabama
Round 7
Pick
Team
Player
College
221
Chiefs
OL Nick Gargiulo
South Carolina
222
Commanders
TE Dallin Holker
Colorado State
223
Raiders
S Trey Taylor
Air Force
224
Bengals
OL Giovanni Manu
British Columbia
225
Chargers
WR Cornelius Johnson
Michigan
226
Cardinals
WR Jalen Coker
Holy Cross
227
Browns
CB M.J. Devonshire
Pittsburgh
228
Ravens
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Purdue
229
Raiders
WR Jha’Quan Jackson
Tulane
230
Vikings
CB Jarius Monroe
Tulane
231
Patriots
OL Donovan Jennings
USF
232
Vikings
LB Tatum Bethune
Florida State
233
Cowboys
CB Daequan Hardy
Penn State
234
Colts
ED Braiden McGregor
Michigan
235
Seahawks
DT Jowon Briggs
Cincinnati
236
Jaguars
CB Deantre Prince
Ole Miss
237
Bengals
RB Dylan Laube
New Hampshire
238
Texans
OL Nathan Thomas
Louisiana
239
Saints
S Tyler Owens
Texas Tech
240
Panthers
WR Ainias Smith
Texas A&M
241
Dolphins
CB Josh Wallace
Michigan
242
Titans
S Isaiah Johnson
Syracuse
243
Browns
OL Andrew Coker
TCU
244
Cowboys
LB JD Bertrand
Notre Dame
245
Packers
S Jaylon Carlies
Missouri
246
Buccaneers
TE Erick All
Iowa
247
Texans
S Mark Perry
TCU
248
Bills
RB Frank Gore Jr.
Southern Miss
249
Lions
ED Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Notre Dame
250
Ravens
OL Karsen Barnhart
Michigan
251
49ers
DT Logan Lee
Iowa
252
Titans
OL Matt Lee
Miami FL
253
Chargers
DT Levi Drake Rodriguez
Texas A&M-Commerce
254
Rams
S Millard Bradford
TCU
255
Packers
WR Ryan Flournoy
Southeast Missouri State
256
Broncos
CB Chigozie Anusiem
Colorado State
257
Jets
CB Micah Abraham
Marshall
Be sure to check my pre-Draft content on Twitter @ncoopdraft, the SIS Football account @football_sis, and check out all of our content on this year’s class on the NFL Draft site.
In an NFL Draft that possesses a lot of talent at the top with really good depth in a handful of positions, what are teams going to do come Draft night?
What order do the top 4 QBs go in? When does the first RB come off the board? How many OTs and CBs will we see in the first round?
Using traditional scouting and analytics in conjunction with the NFL Draft site, the Sports Info Solutions Operations department tried its hand at attempting to answer all the burning questions and more in a full 7-Round Mock Draft.
Where are your favorite players going to land?
Who is your favorite team going to select?
Those questions and more are about to be answered. Find out now!
Round 1
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
1
Bears
JD
QB Caleb Williams
USC
The Bears look to finally land their franchise QB with the uber-talented Caleb Williams.
2
Commanders
Ben
QB Jayden Daniels
LSU
A dynamic runner that can beat a defense from inside the pocket, Washington has a chance to find a true franchise QB in Daniels at the second pick.
3
Patriots
Stephen
QB Drake Maye
North Carolina
After recent inconsistent play at the quarterback position, the Patriots start fresh with the athletic, strong-armed, NFL ready Drake Maye.
4
Cardinals
Ben
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State
With size, speed, production, and pedigree, Harrison is as close to flawless as a prospect can be.
5
Chargers
Nathan
WR Malik Nabers
LSU
The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, so they need to replenish the wide receiver room, and Nabers is one of the most high-upside, dynamic receivers to come out in recent years.
6
Giants
Jared
QB J.J. McCarthy
Michigan
The Giants look to the future and bring in the athleticism and leadership of McCarthy to become their new franchise quarterback.
7
Titans
Dan
OT Joe Alt
Notre Dame
The Titans need to protect their franchise QB and what better way than drafting an athletic monster at LT.
8
Falcons
Jordan
EDGE Dallas Turner
Alabama
The Falcons have been in pursuit of an elite edge rusher for years, and Turner is a high-upside player with excellent athleticism at a young age.
9
Bears
JD
EDGE Jared Verse
Florida State
The Bears land a foundational centerpiece on offense and defense with their top-2 picks as Verse feels like a perfect scheme fit forming a great 1-2 duo off the edge with recently-acquired Montez Sweat.
10
Jets
Kyle
TE Brock Bowers
Georgia
The Jets continue to go all-in on the Aaron Rodgers experiment by nabbing the best TE prospect in recent memory.
11
Vikings
Jeff
WR Rome Odunze
Washington
With the top four QBs off the board, the Vikings look to set up their future franchise QB with another game-changing weapon who can thrive in an offense full of playmakers.
12
Broncos
Nathan
EDGE Laiatu Latu
UCLA
Denver needs more help getting to the quarterback, and Latu is arguably the best pure pass rusher in this year’s class.
13
Raiders
Theo
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Penn State
The run on quarterbacks and skill players in the Top 11 gives the Raiders a perfect opportunity to take the best player available while also filling a big void at right tackle.
14
Saints
Chad
OT JC Latham
Alabama
With question marks at both Tackle slots (either due to injury or performance), the Saints take the massive tackle from Alabama to bolster their offensive line.
15
Colts
Jeremy
CB Quinyon Mitchell
Toledo
The Colts’ cornerback room is amongst the worst in the league, and Mitchell is a top-tier talent who can help bring stability to Indy’s lowly secondary.
16
Seahawks
Jeff
OG Troy Fautanu
Washington
The Seahawks need some help on the interior and they grab one of the most versatile offensive linemen in the draft who could potentially play any position.
17
Jaguars
Jeremy
CB Terrion Arnold
Alabama
The Jaguars need an influx of talent in their secondary, and Terrion Arnold has the press-man skills coveted by new DC Ryan Neilsen.
18
Bengals
Michael
DT Byron Murphy II
Texas
Playing in the loaded AFC North, the Bengals add depth and disruption to their defensive line by bringing in Murphy who also brings a high-end motor to the physical division.
19
Rams
Justin
EDGE Chop Robinson
Penn State
The Rams lack depth at the edge with Robinson’s natural pass-rush ability and elite first step are a perfect fit for a defense that needs to improve its ability to get to the QB.
20
Steelers
Max
OT Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State
The Steelers go offensive tackle in back-to-back years grabbing Fuaga, who is a mauler in the run game, and will help impose the physical running style and play action pass game that Mike Tomlin and new OC Arthur Smith like to utilize
21
Dolphins
Conner
OG Graham Barton
Duke
With needs across the OL after an injury-plagued 2023, Miami looks to add a versatile OL that has true five-position flexibility.
22
Eagles
Ben
OT Tyler Guyton
Oklahoma
As Lane Johnson reaches the end of his illustrious career, the Eagles jump on another athletic Sooner that can develop under OL coach Jeff Stoutland and reach his full potential.
23
Vikings
Jeff
DT Jer’Zhan Newton
Illinois
The Vikings desperately need some pass rushing from the interior and they are able to nab one of the best in the draft with their second pick of the 1st round.
24
Cowboys
Chad
OC Jackson Powers-Johnson
Oregon
The Cowboys need to retool their offensive line, and they nail down the middle of the line with the athletic center out of Oregon.
25
Packers
Jeff
OT Amarius Mims
Georgia
The Packers have been looking for their next franchise tackle, and Mims has one of the highest upsides in the entire draft class.
26
Buccaneers
Conner
CB Nate Wiggins
Clemson
After trading Carlton Davis, Tampa looks to add another weapon to the secondary with the selection of Wiggins.
27
Cardinals
Ben
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
Alabama
McKinstry is a ready-made NFL corner that proved his speed through the draft process and while some will be skeptical of his injury issues, he projects to make an immediate impact when on the field.
28
Bills
Evan
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU
The Bills will look to restock their WR room after offseason departures and it begins with Thomas Jr., who will bring a vertical threat with his good size and speed to Josh Allen’s attack.
29
Lions
Nathan
DT Darius Robinson
Missouri
Robinson brings the grit and personality the Detroit staff is looking for, along with the versatility to line up all over the line, rush the passer, and stop the run.
30
Ravens
Segev
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Missouri
The Ravens lost a lot of talent and depth in free agency and start replenishing that by taking a corner who can really cover and could start immediately.
31
49ers
Jordan
OT Kingsley Suamataia
BYU
The 49ers still have Trent Williams at LT, but adding Kingsley provides an eventual succession plan while allowing him to develop behind one of the league’s best players.
32
Chiefs
Nathan
WR Xavier Worthy
Texas
Given the question marks Rashee Rice raised this offseason, Worthy combines elite speed and receiver skills to give Mahomes and the Chiefs another big-time weapon.
Round 2
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
33
Panthers
Jordan
CB Cooper DeJean
Iowa
34
Patriots
Stephen
WR Adonai Mitchell
Texas
35
Cardinals
Ben
EDGE Chris Braswell
Alabama
36
Commanders
Ben
OG Dominick Puni
Kansas
37
Chargers
Nathan
OT Patrick Paul
Houston
38
Titans
Dan
EDGE Bralen Trice
Washington
39
Panthers
Jordan
WR Xavier Legette
South Carolina
40
Commanders
Ben
EDGE Adisa Isaac
Penn State
41
Packers
Jeff
LB Payton Wilson
NC State
42
Texans
Ryan
CB Kamari Lassiter
Georgia
43
Falcons
Jordan
QB Michael Penix Jr.
Washington
44
Raiders
Theo
NT T’Vondre Sweat
Texas
45
Saints
Chad
DT Braden Fiske
Florida State
46
Colts
Jeremy
WR Keon Coleman
Florida State
47
Giants
Jared
WR Ladd McConkey
Georgia
48
Jaguars
Jeremy
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Washington
49
Bengals
Michael
WR Troy Franklin
Oregon
50
Eagles
Ben
CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Louisville
51
Steelers
Max
OC Zach Frazier
West Virginia
52
Rams
Justin
DT Mekhi Wingo
LSU
53
Eagles
Ben
TE Theo Johnson
Penn State
54
Browns
Michael
OT Kiran Amegadjie
Yale
55
Dolphins
Conner
DT Maason Smith
LSU
56
Cowboys
Chad
RB Jonathon Brooks
Texas
57
Buccaneers
Conner
OG Christian Haynes
UConn
58
Packers
Jeff
CB Mike Sainristil
Michigan
59
Texans
Ryan
S Tyler Nubin
Minnesota
60
Bills
Evan
EDGE Austin Booker
Kansas
61
Lions
Nathan
OC Beaux Limmer
Arkansas
62
Ravens
Segev
OT Jordan Morgan
Arizona
63
49ers
Jordan
CB Max Melton
Rutgers
64
Chiefs
Nathan
CB T.J. Tampa
Iowa State
Round 3
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
65
Panthers
Jordan
RB Trey Benson
Florida State
66
Cardinals
Ben
NT McKinnley Jackson
Texas A&M
67
Commanders
Ben
S Kamren Kinchens
Miami FL
68
Patriots
Stephen
OT Walter Rouse
Oklahoma
69
Chargers
Nathan
RB Blake Corum
Michigan
70
Giants
Jared
CB Andru Phillips
Kentucky
71
Cardinals
Ben
WR Devontez Walker
North Carolina
72
Jets
Kyle
OT Blake Fisher
Notre Dame
73
Lions
Nathan
S Jaden Hicks
Washington State
74
Falcons
Jordan
CB Kris Abrams-Draine
Missouri
75
Bears
JD
DT Kris Jenkins
Michigan
76
Broncos
Nathan
QB Bo Nix
Oregon
77
Raiders
Theo
QB Spencer Rattler
South Carolina
78
Commanders
Ben
CB Khyree Jackson
Oregon
79
Falcons
Jordan
LB Junior Colson
Michigan
80
Bengals
Michael
OG Cooper Beebe
Kansas State
81
Seahawks
Jeff
LB Edgerrin Cooper
Texas A&M
82
Colts
Jeremy
S Cole Bishop
Utah
83
Rams
Justin
OG Christian Mahogany
Boston College
84
Steelers
Max
DT Ruke Orhorhoro
Clemson
85
Browns
Michael
DT Brandon Dorlus
Oregon
86
Texans
Ryan
OT Roger Rosengarten
Washington
87
Cowboys
Chad
WR Ricky Pearsall
Florida
88
Packers
Jeff
OG Zak Zinter
Michigan
89
Buccaneers
Conner
WR Malachi Corley
Western Kentucky
90
Cardinals
Ben
DT Leonard Taylor III
Miami FL
91
Packers
Jeff
OC Sedrick Van Pran
Georgia
92
Buccaneers
Conner
LB Trevin Wallace
Kentucky
93
Ravens
Segev
EDGE Jonah Elliss
Utah
94
49ers
Jordan
EDGE Marshawn Kneeland
Western Michigan
95
Chiefs
Nathan
OT Matt Goncalves
Pittsburgh
96
Jaguars
Jeremy
S Javon Bullard
Georgia
97
Bengals
Michael
OT Javon Foster
Missouri
98
Steelers
Max
WR Brenden Rice
USC
99
Rams
Justin
EDGE Gabriel Murphy
UCLA
100
Commanders
Ben
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
Texas
Round 4
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
101
Panthers
Jordan
LB Cedric Gray
North Carolina
102
Seahawks
Jeff
TE Jared Wiley
TCU
103
Patriots
Stephen
TE Cade Stover
Ohio State
104
Cardinals
Ben
OC Hunter Nourzad
Penn State
105
Chargers
Nathan
TE Ben Sinnott
Kansas State
106
Titans
Dan
WR Roman Wilson
Michigan
107
Giants
Jared
RB Audric Estime
Notre Dame
108
Vikings
Jeff
QB Joe Milton III
Tennessee
109
Falcons
Jordan
S Calen Bullock
USC
110
Chargers
Nathan
CB D.J. James
Auburn
111
Jets
Kyle
S Kitan Oladapo
Oregon State
112
Raiders
Theo
EDGE Xavier Thomas
Clemson
113
Ravens
Segev
WR Jalen McMillan
Washington
114
Jaguars
Jeremy
EDGE Mohamed Kamara
Colorado State
115
Bengals
Michael
CB Caelen Carson
Wake Forest
116
Jaguars
Jeremy
OT Travis Glover
Georgia State
117
Colts
Jeremy
LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
Washington
118
Seahawks
Jeff
DT Michael Hall Jr.
Ohio State
119
Steelers
Max
S Tykee Smith
Georgia
120
Eagles
Ben
LB Jaylan Ford
Texas
121
Broncos
Nathan
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Clemson
122
Bears
JD
WR Javon Baker
UCF
123
Texans
Ryan
DT Justin Eboigbe
Alabama
124
49ers
Jordan
OT Caedan Wallace
Penn State
125
Buccaneers
Conner
RB Marshawn Lloyd
USC
126
Packers
Jeff
WR Jacob Cowing
Arizona
127
Texans
Ryan
CB Chau Smith-Wade
Washington State
128
Bills
Evan
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Texas Tech
129
Vikings
Jeff
CB Josh Newton
TCU
130
Ravens
Segev
OG Jalen Sundell
North Dakota State
131
Chiefs
Nathan
OC Tanor Bortolini
Wisconsin
132
49ers
Jordan
S Malik Mustapha
Wake Forest
133
Bills
Evan
RB Bucky Irving
Oregon
134
Jets
Kyle
DT DeWayne Carter
Duke
135
49ers
Jordan
RB Braelon Allen
Wisconsin
Round 5
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
136
Broncos
Nathan
DT Tyler Davis
Clemson
137
Patriots
Stephen
LB Tommy Eichenberg
Ohio State
138
Cardinals
Ben
CB Kalen King
Penn State
139
Commanders
Ben
OT Delmar Glaze
Maryland
140
Chargers
Nathan
OG Brandon Coleman
TCU
141
Panthers
Jordan
TE Dallin Holker
Colorado State
142
Panthers
Jordan
EDGE Cedric Johnson
Ole Miss
143
Falcons
Jordan
TE Tip Reiman
Illinois
144
Bills
Evan
CB Renardo Green
Florida State
145
Broncos
Nathan
OT Tylan Grable
UCF
146
Titans
Dan
LB James Williams
Miami FL
147
Broncos
Nathan
CB Cam Hart
Notre Dame
148
Raiders
Theo
LB Jackson Sirmon
California
149
Bengals
Michael
TE Tanner McLachlan
Arizona
150
Saints
Chad
EDGE Brennan Jackson
Washington State
151
Colts
Jeremy
OG Mason McCormick
South Dakota State
152
Commanders
Ben
DT Gabe Hall
Baylor
153
Jaguars
Jeremy
LB Curtis Jacobs
Penn State
154
Rams
Justin
S Jaylin Simpson
Auburn
155
Rams
Justin
CB Johnny Dixon
Penn State
156
Browns
Michael
WR Malik Washington
Virginia
157
Vikings
Jeff
RB Will Shipley
Clemson
158
Dolphins
Conner
WR Luke McCaffrey
Rice
159
Chiefs
Nathan
LB Ty’Ron Hopper
Missouri
160
Bills
Evan
OG Donovan Jennings
USF
161
Eagles
Ben
EDGE Javon Solomon
Troy
162
Cardinals
Ben
CB Myles Harden
South Dakota
163
Bills
Evan
OC Andrew Raym
Oklahoma
164
Lions
Nathan
CB Nehemiah Pritchett
Auburn
165
Ravens
Segev
RB Ray Davis
Kentucky
166
Giants
Jared
OG Javion Cohen
Miami FL
167
Vikings
Jeff
OG Layden Robinson
Texas A&M
168
Saints
Chad
WR Jamari Thrash
Louisville
169
Packers
Jeff
EDGE Richard Jibunor
Troy
170
Saints
Chad
TE Jaheim Bell
Florida State
171
Eagles
Ben
WR Johnny Wilson
Florida State
172
Eagles
Ben
CB Jarrian Jones
Florida State
173
Chiefs
Nathan
RB Jaylen Wright
Tennessee
174
Cowboys
Chad
OT Christian Jones
Texas
175
Saints
Chad
CB M.J. Devonshire
Pittsburgh
176
49ers
Jordan
TE Erick All
Iowa
Round 6
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
177
Vikings
Jeff
OT Garret Greenfield
South Dakota State
178
Steelers
Max
CB Elijah Jones
Boston College
179
Seahawks
Jeff
K Joshua Karty
Stanford
180
Patriots
Stephen
EDGE Trajan Jeffcoat
Arkansas
181
Chargers
Nathan
NT Jordan Jefferson
LSU
182
Titans
Dan
S Evan Williams
Oregon
183
Giants
Jared
DT Keith Randolph Jr.
Illinois
184
Dolphins
Conner
OC Kingsley Eguakun
Florida
185
Jets
Kyle
QB Michael Pratt
Tulane
186
Cardinals
Ben
S Sione Vaki
Utah
187
Falcons
Jordan
WR Jermaine Burton
Alabama
188
Texans
Ryan
OG LaDarius Henderson
Michigan
189
Texans
Ryan
LB Jordan Magee
Temple
190
Saints
Chad
S Beau Brade
Maryland
191
Colts
Jeremy
EDGE Myles Cole
Texas Tech
192
Seahawks
Jeff
QB Austin Reed
Western Kentucky
193
Patriots
Stephen
WR Joshua Cephus
UTSA
194
Bengals
Michael
DT Marcus Harris
Auburn
195
Steelers
Max
QB Jordan Travis
Florida State
196
Rams
Justin
DT Logan Lee
Iowa
197
Falcons
Jordan
CB Decamerion Richardson
Mississippi State
198
Dolphins
Conner
CB Chigozie Anusiem
Colorado State
199
Saints
Chad
P Tory Taylor
Iowa
200
Bills
Evan
LB Tatum Bethune
Florida State
201
Lions
Nathan
EDGE Jaylen Harrell
Michigan
202
Packers
Jeff
RB Dylan Laube
New Hampshire
203
Jets
Kyle
WR Ainias Smith
Texas A&M
204
Bills
Evan
DT Jowon Briggs
Cincinnati
205
Lions
Nathan
WR Jordan Whittington
Texas
206
Browns
Michael
LB Marist Liufau
Notre Dame
207
Broncos
Nathan
OC Charles Turner III
LSU
208
Raiders
Theo
CB Carlton Johnson
Fresno State
209
Rams
Justin
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford
Minnesota
210
Eagles
Ben
WR Jalen Coker
Holy Cross
211
49ers
Jordan
WR Bub Means
Pittsburgh
212
Jaguars
Jeremy
CB Marcellas Dial
South Carolina
213
Rams
Justin
OT Ethan Driskell
Marshall
214
Bengals
Michael
WR Lideatrick Griffin
Mississippi State
215
49ers
Jordan
OG Isaiah Adams
Illinois
216
Cowboys
Chad
EDGE Jalyx Hunt
Houston Christian
217
Rams
Justin
QB Kedon Slovis
BYU
218
Ravens
Segev
S Jaylen Key
Alabama
219
Packers
Jeff
NT Justin Rogers
Auburn
220
Buccaneers
Conner
OC Matt Lee
Miami FL
Round 7
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
221
Chiefs
Nathan
OG Nick Gargiulo
South Carolina
222
Commanders
Ben
NT Khristian Boyd
Northern Iowa
223
Raiders
Theo
WR Cornelius Johnson
Michigan
224
Bengals
Michael
QB Devin Leary
Kentucky
225
Chargers
Nathan
WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
Georgia
226
Cardinals
Ben
LB Aaron Casey
Indiana
227
Browns
Michael
S Josh Proctor
Ohio State
228
Ravens
Segev
TE AJ Barner
Michigan
229
Raiders
Theo
OG Sataoa Laumea
Utah
230
Vikings
Jeff
OG Kyle Hergel
Boston College
231
Patriots
Stephen
RB Dillon Johnson
Washington
232
Vikings
Jeff
WR Tahj Washington
USC
233
Cowboys
Chad
LB Tyrice Knight
UTEP
234
Colts
Jeremy
S Trey Taylor
Air Force
235
Seahawks
Jeff
RB Blake Watson
Memphis
236
Jaguars
Jeremy
EDGE Braiden McGregor
Michigan
237
Bengals
Michael
P Ryan Rehkow
BYU
238
Texans
Ryan
TE Mason Fairchild
Kansas
239
Saints
Chad
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Purdue
240
Panthers
Jordan
CB Deantre Prince
Ole Miss
241
Dolphins
Conner
EDGE Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Notre Dame
242
Titans
Dan
OL Trevor Keegan
Michigan
243
Browns
Michael
RB Cody Schrader
Missouri
244
Cowboys
Chad
S Dominique Hampton
Washington
245
Packers
Jeff
CB Dwight McGlothern
Arkansas
246
Buccaneers
Conner
WR Jha’Quan Jackson
Tulane
247
Texans
Ryan
WR Ryan Flournoy
Southeast Missouri State
248
Bills
Evan
CB Josh Wallace
Michigan
249
Lions
Nathan
OT Giovanni Manu
British Columbia (Canada)
250
Ravens
Segev
LB Nathaniel Watson
Mississippi State
251
49ers
Jordan
LB Tarique Barnes
Illinois
252
Titans
Dan
CB Daequan Hardy
Penn State
253
Chargers
Nathan
S Tyler Owens
Texas Tech
254
Rams
Justin
K Harrison Mevis
Missouri
255
Packers
Jeff
TE Jack Westover
Washington
256
Broncos
Nathan
RB Isaac Guerendo
Louisville
257
Jets
Kyle
LB Steele Chambers
Ohio State
The members of the SIS Operations staff who took part in this Mock Draft are: Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, Jeremy Percy, Conner Hrabal, Theo Fornaciari, Max Nuscher, Michael Morgan, Ryan Rubinstein, Jared Maslin, JD Allen, Kyle Shatto, Dan Foehrenbach, Segev Goldberg, Stephen Marciello, Evan Butler, and Justin Stine.
Offensive tackles, cornerbacks, and wide receivers dominate our Top 100 this year, while the expected No. 1 overall pick is the No. 2 player on our board.
There are 16 cornerbacks who appear in our Top 100, led by Kool-Aid McKinstry from Alabama and Nate Wiggins from Clemson.
Along with CB, this year’s wide receiver class is heavy as well. Marvin Harrison Jr. leads the way as our top-ranked player over and 1 of 15 at the position in our Top 100.
Offensive tackle will be plentiful the first two days of the draft, as we have 12 who are ranked in our Top 100, including Joe Alt (No. 3), JC Latham (No. 6), and Olu Fashanu (No. 9), who are in the Top 10.
Caleb Williams, the frontrunner for the No. 1 overall pick, is our No. 2 ranked player overall. At quarterback, Drake Maye comes in at No. 7 overall and Jayden Daniels comes in at No. 24.
Additionally, AJ Simon of Albany tragically passed away last week. We wanted to give him a mention, as he would’ve been our No. 278 overall player and 28th ranked EDGE.
It’s finally time to release our SIS All-Conference teams. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our team of selections for 2023, plus some honorable mentions.
You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.
These picks are meant to honor this season’s best-of-the-best of the Independents.
Offense
Position
Name
School
QB
Sam Hartman
Notre Dame
RB
Audric Estime
Notre Dame
RB
Kayron Lynch-Adams
UMass
WR
Anthony Simpson
UMass
TE
Mitchell Evans
Notre Dame
FLEX
Justin Joly
UConn
OT
Joe Alt
Notre Dame
OT
Connor Finucane
Army
OG
Christian Haynes
UConn
OG
Marcellus Anderson
UMass
OC
Brady Small
Army
Sam Hartman made the most of his one season in South Bend and had more Passing Total Points than every other Independent QB COMBINED. Audric Estime was the leader by a substantial amount in Rushing Total Points, but Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams finished Top-30 in the FBS with his 1,153 rushing yards affording him a spot on the team.
Justin Joly and Mitchell Evans didn’t only lead all TEs in Receiving Total Points, but led all pass catchers among the Independent schools. Anthony Simpson led all Independent receivers in targets, yards, and first downs.
Each Independent school has at least 1 representative along the offensive line with Joe Alt and Conor Finucane leading the conference in back-to-back years in Blocking Total Points. All five linemen were also Top-5 in Blown Block Percentage, with all of them coming in under 1.2%.
Defense
Position
Name
School
DT
Howard Cross III
Notre Dame
DT
Billy Wooden
UMass
EDGE
Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Notre Dame
EDGE
Pryce Yates
UConn
LB
JD Bertrand
Notre Dame
LB
Jackson Mitchell
UConn
CB
Cam Hart
Notre Dame
CB
Jabari Moore
Army
S
Xavier Watts
Notre Dame
S
Quindrelin Hammonds
Army
FLEX
Benjamin Morrison
Notre Dame
Javontae Jean-Baptiste led all Independent pass rushers in Pass Rushing Total Points and pressures while coming in 4th for Run Defense Total Points. Billy Wooden led all Independents with 6 sacks from the DT position. Howard Cross III finished 2nd in total pressures and 5th in Run Defense Total Points among Independent defenders. Pryce Yates finished 4th in Pressures and Pass Rush Total Points to round out the defensive front.
Jackson Mitchell was Top-10 nationally in Run Defense Total Points. JD Bertrand finished as the top Independent LB with 25 Pressures and added four passes defensed in coverage on top of that.
Notre Dame is well represented on the back-end of the defense with Xavier Watts who was T-1st nationally with 7 INTs and 2nd in the nation in Coverage Total Points. Cam Hart was 2nd among Independent DBs in Coverage Total Points behind his teammate and Benjamin Morrison led all Independent players with 13 passes defensed.
Specialists
Position
Name
School
K
Spencer Shrader
Notre Dame
P
George Caratan
UConn
Returner
Jadarian Price
Notre Dame
Spencer Shrader went a near perfect 61-of-62 in extra points and his 4 field goals made of 50+ yards was T-3rd nationally.
George Caratan had a strong leg and his punt average of 45 yards was Top-5 nationally for all punters with at least 60 punts.
Jadarian Prince was the only Independent return man with a kick return touchdown, and his kick return average of 26.2 was Top-20 in the FBS.
Honorable Mentions
Name
School
TE Gino Campiotti
UMass
OL Chase Lundt
UConn
DT Rylie Mills
Notre Dame
DT Jelani Stafford
UConn
LB Jack Kiser
Notre Dame
CB Bo Nicolas-Paul
Army
TE was a very difficult selection, and as a result, Gino Campiotti earned an honorable mention because he finished 3rd among Independent TEs in both Receiving and Blocking Total Points. Offensive tackle was also a close decision as Chase Lundt finished 3rd among Independent offensive linemen in Total Points, but behind the two tackles who made the All-Conference team.
Jelani Stafford finished tops among Independent DTs in Run Defense Total Points and Jack Kiser finished 2nd among LBs. Bo-Nicolas Paul finished 3rd in the conference in Coverage Total Points among CBs.
Check out this year’s NFL Draft site to see how we feel some of these players project to the NFL.
