Category: MLB

  • Stat of the Week: The Top 5 Defensive Center Fielders in MLB

    Stat of the Week: The Top 5 Defensive Center Fielders in MLB

    Photo: Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire

    BY MARK SIMON

    The other day, I wanted to rank the top defensive center fielders in MLB entering 2024, so I pulled up The Fielding Bible leaderboards along with a pen and paper and got to work.

    I put Brenton Doyle No. 1. Doyle led all center fielders in both Defensive Runs Saved and Good Fielding Plays last season and won the NL Gold Glove at the position. If he hits even a smidge, he’s going to play and play a lot because he’s so good in the field. And he’s still young. He turns 26 in May and should still have fresh legs.

    I’m guessing that Kevin Kiermaier won’t like that I’m putting him No. 2 given that he’s the reigning Fielding Bible Award winner and the overall leader in Runs Saved by a center fielder since we started tracking the stat in 2003. But Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a substantial injury history. So we’re going with the young buck ahead of the reigning champ and encouraging the older guy to prove us wrong. (We’ll own up to it if we are!)

    No. 3 is another veteran, Michael A. Taylor. Though he’s currently unsigned, we’ll still put our faith in Taylor, who ranks first among center fielders in Runs Saved over the last 3 seasons. We wrote about him in great detail last week and encourage you to check that out to learn more about what makes him good (spoiler: he’s been really good at chasing the deep fly ball). The track record of success is there.

    My No. 4 defensive center fielder entering 2024 is another young’un, Johan Rojas. Rojas ranked 4th among center fielders in Runs Saved despite ranking 37th in innings. He also had the most Runs Saved of any minor league center fielder in 2023. There’s every reason to think he’ll be great in 2024.

    No. 5 is the one that was hardest to pick and I’m going to go with the wildest of wild cards, Byron Buxton. Buxton is going to return to playing outfield after solely playing as a designated hitter last season.

    Buxton is as good as it gets on a per-inning basis. From 2020 to 2022 he played about the equivalent of one MLB season in center field and saved 29 runs. That’s a league-leading caliber season for a center fielder. In that 3-year span, Buxton ranked 2nd among center fielders in Runs Saved and 20th in innings played.

    Buxton is a potential make-or-break player for the Twins this season and also a high-risk, high-reward pick in Defensive Runs Saved fantasy leagues (yes, those leagues exist). I feel good enough about him to rank him in the No. 5 slot. If he’s healthy for most of the season, he’ll be a difference maker.

    Who are your Top 5 defensive center fielders entering 2024? Tweet your picks at us.

    Mark’s Top 5 Defensive CF Entering 2024

    1. Brenton Doyle
    2. Kevin Kiermaier
    3. Michael A. Taylor
    4. Johan Rojas
    5. Byron Buxton
  • Stat of the Week: MLB’s Rising Defensive Stars

    Stat of the Week: MLB’s Rising Defensive Stars

    Photo: Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire

     

    A year ago at this time I wrote about MLB’s rising defensive stars, and now seems like a good time to do that again looking to 2024.

    There are 4 players on active rosters this spring who will be in their age-23-or-younger season in 2024* and who had at least 10 Defensive Runs Saved in the major leagues in 2023. They’re in our spotlight heading into the upcoming season.

    * Age 23 or younger as of June 30, 2024

    Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe totaled 15 Runs Saved and won the AL Gold Glove last season. Volpe played the 2nd-most innings of any shortstop in the majors (only Francisco Lindor played more). With his defense solid (he’s particularly good on balls hit to his left), improving his hitting figures to be a high priority in 2024. He had a .666 OPS in 2023.

    Phillies center fielder Johan Rojas was outstanding after being recalled from the minor leagues, amassing 15 Runs Saved in 57 games. Combine that with his minor league-best total of 15 Runs Saved and Rojas had an epic defensive season. Rojas placed 9th in The Fielding Bible Awards voting among center fielders last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in 2024.

    Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson played an almost identical number of innings at shortstop and third base last season. He was better at shortstop, amassing 10 of his 13 Runs Saved. Henderson finished with 6.2 bWAR in 2023. With a good defensive season and solid offensive numbers again, he may be in line for something better in 2024.

    Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar’s defensive play was one of the highlights of a rough season for a last-place team. His 13 Runs Saved ranked 4th at the position. Like Volpe, Tovar played a lot. He ranked 5th among shortstops in innings played and had an impressive reel of standout defensive plays.

    One other player I want to point out is Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams who finished with 4 Runs Saved in 2023. Abrams’ defensive game took a major step forward in 2023 as he improved from -5 Runs Saved in 2022. Though his throwing issues kept him from being in the same class as the quartet above, his defensive stock is up heading into 2024.

  • Michael A. Taylor, The Top Defensive CF The Last 3 Seasons, Still Has No Home

    Michael A. Taylor, The Top Defensive CF The Last 3 Seasons, Still Has No Home

    Photo: Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire

    We recently wrote about how the best defensive shortstop in the game, Miguel Rojas, was somehow thriving at a young man’s position while defying the statistical aging curve that brings down most players his age.

    The top-performing defensive center fielder over the last 3 seasons is doing the same. He just doesn’t have a home yet for 2024. 

    I’m referring to current free agent Michael A. Taylor.  

    I imagine it is going to generate a lot of responses of “Best center fielder? What about ___?” (insert Brenton Doyle, John Rojas, Kevin Kiermaier and many other options here).

    But it’s Taylor who has the best 3-year track record. Taylor saved 19, 19, and 5 runs the last 3 seasons. He was not in Doyle or Kiermaier’s class last year but he was still good. 

    And of particular importance when comparing him to a lot of these other players, Taylor has played more than them. He ranks 4th among center fielders in innings played the last 3 seasons. Kiermaier ranks 10th.

    Name Innings DRS
    Michael A. Taylor 3,156 43
    Kevin Kiermaier 2,358 33
    Myles Straw 3,882 27
    Daulton Varsho 1,040 21
    Brenton Doyle 1,023 19

    What I watch when I watch Taylor

    At his best, Taylor is a great sprinter who can chase balls down deep in the gaps. When he’s doing this well, he’s a highly valuable defender.

    From 2021 to 2023, Taylor caught 323 of 386 balls classified as “deep” in our shallow/medium/deep classification system. Based on historical out probabilities, he was expected to catch 308 of them. 

    So over these 3 seasons, he’s +15 plays saved (our version of Outs Above Average) just on deep fly balls (323 plays made minus 308 expected plays made). That was No. 1 in MLB in that time.

    The last 3 seasons, Taylor was 6, 9, and 4 plays above average on deep balls. 

    But there’s no shame in being +4 in 2023. It’s tied for 10th-best among all center fielders. 

    The arm

    Outfield assists are important because you get credit both for netting an out and erasing a baserunner. Preventing runners from taking an extra base is too. 

    Taylor’s arm was notable to his value in both 2021 and 2022, netting him 5 and 4 Runs Saved, respectively. He dropped to 1 Run Saved in 2023. That happened because his assist total dipped, from 8 assists without a cutoff man in 2021 and 5 in 2022 to 1 in 2023.

    Though he dipped to 1 Runs Saved in 2023, there don’t appear to be any red flags with his arm. He averaged 92 MPH on the top 10% of his throws in both 2021 and 2022, 91.5 MPH in 2023. That doesn’t feel like a significant difference. And the percentage of runners 

    In fairness to Taylor, there was one factor beyond his control. He played a comparable number of innings in 2022 and 2023, but in 2022 he had 45 more opportunities to deny a baserunner an advance because the 2022 Royals pitching was not great and the 2023 Twins were much better than them. So he didn’t have as many chances to put his arm to use.

    What was the difference between Taylor 2021-22 and 2023?

    Baseball Savant’s jump numbers indicate that Taylor’s “burst” (the number of feet above average that he was covering at the point in which the ball is in the air from 1.5 to 3 seconds) is down by about a foot from 2021. However, he did improve a little bit in the route-running component of the jump stats. 

    Taylor also had a few more miscues and just misses. He had a career high 22 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 2023 and committed them at a little higher rate than in 2021 or 2022.

    Taylor will turn 33 in late March, so perhaps with age comes some slowing down. But even so, he seems to still have something left to give.

    The bat

    I imagine the concerns with Taylor are more with the .220 batting average and .279 on-base percentage last season than anything else. 

    Taylor had a big hole at the area that we classify “down and away,” going 8-for-83 in at-bats that ended with a pitch there (his .096 batting average and 56% rate of swings missed) were bottom 10% in that stat). His overall contact rate decreased nearly 5 percentage points from 2022. He basically accepted some missed swings in return for more home runs (a career-high 21). 

    The result: Even with the issues Taylor had, it was still his best offensive season since 2017. He had an OPS of .720, a smidge below MLB average for a center fielder (.730). 

    The fits

    That Taylor is unsigned is somewhat surprising. 

    One of his best potential fits, the Mets, who decided to move Brandon Nimmo to left field, went for Harrison Bader rather than Taylor. The Reds, a defensively-challenged team in 2023, have not gone for Taylor, who would be a useful late-inning replacement that would immediately improve their outfield defense. 

    Taylor’s best current fit might be with the Padres, who are currently projected to replace Trent Grisham (traded to Yankees) with Jose Azocar, who has a .633 career OPS in a little more than 300 plate appearances. Taylor, who has averaged better than 2.5 bWAR the last 3 seasons, would absolutely be an upgrade there.

    Taylor isn’t Blake Snell or Matt Chapman, but he’s still a useful player who could be a key piece for a winning team. As someone who writes about good defense as his beat, I can without question say he still deserves a legitimate role on an MLB team in 2024. 

  • Stat of the Week: Gio Urshela Is A More Meaningful Signing Than You Think

    Stat of the Week: Gio Urshela Is A More Meaningful Signing Than You Think

    Photo: Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire

    The biggest defensive hole in MLB team infields last season was third base for the Tigers. Detroit tried 9 players at that position and those players combined for -22 Defensive Runs Saved. Not only did the Tigers rank last in MLB in Runs Saved by their third basemen, they also ranked 26th in Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Average at the position.

    Tigers general manager Scott Harris chipped away at his team’s roster construction all winter. He traded for Mark Canha to give the team a bat that could control the strike zone and improve the offense’s production. And he added a pair of veteran arms for the starting rotation in Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty.

    These additions supplement a young core that could have 2 prime prospects— center fielder Parker Meadows and infielder Colt Keith— as everyday players.

    Harris didn’t do much about third base until Thursday when the Tigers signed Gio Urshela to a one-year contract. If the Tigers wanted to be really ambitious there, they could have pursued free agent Matt Chapman on a long-term deal, but for the short term, Urshela is a good fit.

    If fully recovered from the pelvis injury that limited him to 62 games last season, Urshela, an 8-year veteran, will be a massive upgrade at the hot corner for whatever number of games he plays in 2024. He totaled 6 Defensive Runs Saved in limited action at third base last season and 4 Runs Saved there in 2022. He’s had only one bad stretch there, in 2021 when he totaled -4 Runs Saved for the Yankees.

    Urshela had a .703 OPS in those 62 games last season. That doesn’t sound impressive, but that would also be a big upgrade. Tigers third basemen combined for a .624 OPS last season, 3rd-worst in MLB.

    There is risk with the 32-year-old Urshela, but it’s inexpensive risk. He signed for a base salary of $1.5 million. He may just play in a platoon role. But even if he plays part time, the Tigers improving to 0 Runs Saved and a .700 OPS at third base this season as a result of his production would be noticeable. If Urshela could reach his past peak (he’s twice been a 3-bWAR player), the change would be significant.

    This signing isn’t by itself going to win a division title. But it potentially makes a big hole on the team look much more respectable. Winning championships isn’t just about signing star players. It’s about making sure you have a roster of players that aren’t costing you potential wins. In an AL Central where 85 to 90 wins may be enough to win the division, a move like signing Urshela looks like a pretty smart one.

  • Imagining Bobby Witt As The Best Player in MLB in 2024

    Imagining Bobby Witt As The Best Player in MLB in 2024

    Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. finished with 4.4 bWAR last season. 

    I predict you’ll read that and not like it. Yes, we can get into a whole discussion over whether Baseball-Reference WAR is the “correct” WAR to use (FanGraphs has him at 5.7, Baseball Prospectus at 5.4). We’re not going to have that discussion here.

    Indulge me here and let’s work off the premise that 4.4 bWAR and his -6 Defensive Runs Saved was close to “correct” even though those other sources (and Royals fans) believe he was worth more in each of those stats.

    The best player in baseball in a season is usually worth between 8 to 10 bWAR.

    Given Witt’s improvement from 2022 to 2023, a similar improvement from 2023 to 2024 would be a big jump. It got me wondering: What would it look like for Witt to be the best player in baseball this season? 

    Or perhaps, we ask this: 

    How do you do better than 30 home runs and 49 steals playing a premium position at a high level every day?

    Fortunately there’s a recent shortstop season within that 8 to 10 WAR range that we can measure Witt against. That was Marcus Semien in 2019. 

    Semien played in all 162 games that season. Witt played in 158 in 2023.

    Let’s compare their production:

    BA OBP Slug OPS OPS+ DRS HR-SB bWAR
    Semien ‘19 .285 .369 .522 .891 139 7 33-10 8.5
    Witt Jr. ‘23 .276 .319 .495 .814 120 -6 30-49 4.4

    Even though Witt has a pretty big stolen base advantage, there are large gaps when comparing their offensive numbers. Semien reached base more often and hit for more power.

    For all of Witt’s excellence, he made a lot of outs as a hitter in 2023 (the 2nd-most in the AL).

    That kept his OBP and the number of runs he was able to create as a hitter down even with gaudy home run and stolen base numbers. And though he hit 30 home runs, his slugging percentage ranked 20th of the 29 players who hit that many.

    Dan Szymborski sent me his ZiPs projections for Witt in 2024. This is Witt’s 80th percentile projection. 

    .301 BA, .345 OBP, and .542 Slug Pct. 

    That’s an .887 OPS, which is almost even with Semien’s .891. That should move him a lot closer to being an 8-to-10 WAR player.

    So the next question is, how does Witt go from his hitting and defensive numbers to something that puts him in the caliber of the best players of the game?

    Note: For the sake of brevity, I’m going to work off the idea that Witt Jr.’s baserunning numbers (a small component of his WAR) are similar in 2024 to what they were in 2023

    Hitting

    To reach his 80th percentile ZIPs projection, Witt needs 18 more hits, 30 more total bases, and a similar walk level compared to 2023. 

    Our VP of Baseball, Bobby Scales, played 2 seasons in the majors and worked in player development for multiple major league teams.

    Scales said that the thing to watch with Witt is how he learns what pitches not to swing at.

    Fewer swings at pitches that cause Witt problems means more potential swings at pitches Witt could crush. 

    And as Scales pointed out, every indication was that Witt was doing that last season, his second season in MLB. 

    Witt’s chase rate was down by more than 3 percentage points from his rookie numbers. His rates of hitting the ball hard went up almost 7 percentage points and hitting the ball to the opposite field went up by more than 4 percentage points.

    In particular, Witt closed one hole in his swing in 2023. He became a better high-ball hitter (which went hand-in-hand with being better vs. fastballs). He was choosier against those pitches (a lower chase rate) and did more damage on what he could reach (his slugging percentage against those pitches went up 201 points and his OPS nearly 300 points as his home runs jumped from 2 in 2022 to 8 in 2023).

    Here are some examples (here, here, and here)

    Bobby Witt Jr. vs High Pitches*

    2022 2023
    BA .159 .237
    OPS .523 .821
    HR 2 8

    * SIS defines “high” as pitches that are in the upper-third of the strike zone or above it (also covering areas off the plate inside or outside that meet that height definition).

    Witt also seems aware that one of his key strengths is the ability to crush the inside pitch. He was choosier against those in 2023 too and his OPS against those pitches in his 2 MLB seasons has been at least 100 points above MLB average both years (.911 and .882).

    Here are some examples (here, here, and here)

    Bobby Witt Jr. vs Inside Pitches

    2022 2023
    BA .282 .294
    OPS .911 .882
    HR 12 14

    * SIS defines “inside” as pitches that are on the inner-third of the strike zone or further inside (also covering areas above and below the strike zone that meet that width definition)

    Still, there’s a gap between the elite hitters in MLB and what Witt is right now.

    The 2 areas in which Witt is weakest are pitches at the bottom of the zone and below it (low pitches) and pitches on the outer-third and further off the plate (outside pitches). 

    This chart shows those numbers with MLB averages in parentheses.

    Bobby Witt in 2023

    Vs Low Pitches Vs Outside Pitches
    BA .241 (.223) .232 (.221)
    OPS .649 (.652) .643 (.635)
    % Swings Missed 27% (33%) 30% (30%)
    Chase Rate 32% (32%) 26% (28%)

    * SIS defines “low” as pitches that are in the lower-third of the strike zone or further down, as well as areas off the plate inside or away that meet that height definition

    ** * SIS defines “outside” as pitches that are on the outer third of the strike zone or further outside(also covering areas above and below the strike zone that meet that width definition)

    Not coincidental, last season Witt’s numbers vs breaking pitches (particularly from righties) weren’t great either. 

    Here’s a few examples of Witt making outs on pitches that were down, away, or both (here, here, here, and here).

    Witt’s stats against these pitches are mostly close to MLB average (though it is good to see him with a relatively low rate of missed swings vs low pitches).

    And it stands to reason that pitchers will keep trying to get him out there, even as he’s gotten smarter about knowing what to hit and what to let go.

    So it will be interesting to see if Witt’s game becomes one in which he spits on those pitches more (or fouls them off to extend at-bats), and waits for the pitches he can muscle up (inside or over the middle of the plate) OR if Witt can adjust to hit those pitches better and do more damage against them, without losing what he can do against pitches in other areas.

    One other point: Witt’s expected stats, both via Baseball Savant and via our measures, were better than his actual year-end stats. So even if Witt just replicates his batted ball set from 2023, there’s a fair chance for better stats in 2024. So imagine what he’d be when you combine that and an improved batting eye.

    Defense

    Even though we may not have Witt as highly ranked as other defensive stat sources, we still have him as one of 2023s most-improved defenders. He went from -18 runs at shortstop in 2022 to -6 in 2023. He cut back on his mistakes (we call them Misplays & Errors) and he made more of what we call Good Fielding Plays (Web Gems and smart baseball plays, like keeping a ball on the infield to prevent baserunner advancement).

    Bobby Witt at Shortstop

    2022 2023
    Good Fielding Plays 17 29
    Defensive Misplays & Errors 37 35
    Innings Played at SS 826 1,280

    Let’s also look at Witt and Semien side-by-side defensively Remember that Semien finished with 7 Runs Saved in 2019. Witt totaled -6.

    To illustrate the gap, let’s focus on one aspect of their defensive play: How they fared on getting outs on balls hit to their left. It’s the biggest difference between the two of them.

    The numbers here are their plays made and opportunities (opportunities are any play with a >0 out probability), how successful they were (plays made divided by opportunities) and plays saved (our version of Outs Above Average).

    On Plays To Their Left

    Plays Made/Opportunities Success Rate Plays Saved
    Witt 2023 151/296 51% -7
    Semien 2019 157/225 70% +10

    You can see there’s a pretty big gap. Semien was very good at making these plays. Witt did not rate well (a few examples here, here, and here).

    Now, the point here is not that Witt needs to be better on balls to his left. It’s that – at least by our measures – Witt needs to improve somewhere. He was also -5 Plays Saved on balls hit to his right so that’s another area where he’s gotten better but rates below average.

    On the positive side, Witt was a +4 on balls that our system judged were hit at him, a bump from -4 in 2022.

    Again, there’s good news for Witt here. For one thing, he’s shown he can get better (we talked about this with him on the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast last year). And he was our co-Defensive Player of the Month in July, a month in which he totaled 5 Runs Saved. He just needs to play at that level for an extended period of time, not just a month. 

    Why I wrote this

    The primary reason I wrote this piece was I was looking for a way to justify a world in which the Royals are a playoff contender. FanGraphs currently projects them for 76 wins, Baseball Prospectus for 71.

    Pushing Michael Wacha and Vinnie Pasquantino up a win in their projected WAR can only do so much. The Royals need a player to make the kind of jump that gives a team a jolt.

    The easiest knob to turn to accelerate the Royals to playoff-caliber status is one in which Witt goes from being the Royals best player in 2023 to baseball’s best player in 2024. That could change their win total by a decent amount.

    That’s asking a lot of someone so young who is trying to live up to a massive contract extension. But if the Royals are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to need something to be above and beyond expectations. Witt being the superduperstar we’ve written about here is that thing.

  • Stat of the Week: 2023’s Overperforming Pitchers

    Stat of the Week: 2023’s Overperforming Pitchers

    Photo: Steven King/Icon Sportswire

    Tigers pitchers Matt Manning and Tyler Holton were each pretty good in their own ways in 2023.

    Manning pitched to a 3.58 ERA in about a half-season’s worth of work as a starter. Holton got some of the best results of any reliever in MLB, with a 2.11 ERA in 85 1/3 innings, almost entirely out of the bullpen.

    The two of them had something in common. They each did this with strikeout rates that were a bit below MLB average, meaning they were relying on a combination of defense, sequencing (the order in which hits, walks, and outs came), and luck to keep their numbers down. Both pitchers outpitched their FIP by a considerable amount. Manning’s FIP was 4.81. Holton’s was 3.56.

    Additionally, Manning and Holton were the pitchers whose expected OPS was the most above their actual OPS among those pitchers who faced at least 300 batters in 2023.

    This is our 4th and final Stat of the Week in a series looking at overperforming and underperforming pitchers and hitters from 2023.

    A brief point of explanation:

    Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (like what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

    This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats to see if they fared better or worse than perhaps they could have.

    Here’s the list of pitchers with the greatest differential between their expected OPS and their actual OPS. Think of them as a group whose actual 2023 numbers could have been worse under different circumstances.

    Greatest Differential – Expected Opponents’ OPS vs Opponents’ OPS

    2023 Season, Minimum 300 Batters Faced

    Pitcher Expected Opp OPS Opp OPS Differential
    Matt Manning .825 .649 .176
    Tyler Holton .639 .536 .103
    Tony Gonsolin .822 .722 .100
    Ty Blach 1.005 .918 .087
    Corbin Burnes .684 .598 .086
    José Berrios .776 .696 .080
    Reese Olson .729 .649 .080
    Shohei Ohtani .697 .618 .079

    Manning had a Top-20 fly ball rate last season (47%) and the Tigers caught 76% of all balls hit in the air against him, a rate that matched Justin Verlander as 5th-highest in MLB (minimum 100 balls hit in the air).

    Manning could thank the walls in Comerica Park being lowered prior to the season for this homer-robbing catch (click here to see it) and he had some good defense played behind him (this was a pretty good catch), but perhaps not overly so. The Tigers’ defense had 3 Runs Saved on batted balls behind Manning, leading us to surmise that perhaps it was factors other than fielding skill that kept Manning’s actual numbers so low.

    Holton is not a fly ball pitcher to the level that Manning is. He got 10 Runs Saved worth of support on batted balls, a total that ranked in the Top 20 among pitchers despite his not even having pitched 100 innings.

    The Tigers turned 84% of grounders and bunts into outs with Holton pitching, the 3rd-highest rate among pitchers who got at least 100 grounders ands bunts last season, and 11 percentage points better than MLB average.

    It’s not hard to find examples of the Tigers infield performing very well behind Holton (click here, here, here, and here for examples). And for good measure, the outfield was good behind him too. Here’s a home run saving catch by Riley Greene with Holton pitching.

    Manning and Holton were just above the batters faced qualifier we set. If we look a little further down the list of pitchers with the biggest difference between expected and actual OPS, you’ll notice some notable pitchers with higher innings totals.

    The most prominent of those is Corbin Burnes, who was recently traded by the Brewers to the Orioles. In Burnes’ case, defense likely played a significant role in the difference between his expected numbers and actual numbers. The Brewers defense saved 17 runs behind him on batted balls last season, the 2nd-highest total in MLB. José Berrios, who is also on our expected vs. actual leaderboard, got the most defensive support, 19 Runs Saved.

    Regarding Burnes, the Brewers were the 2nd-best defensive team by Runs Saved in 2023. The Orioles weren’t that far behind, ranking 8th in that stat and they return most of the team that put those numbers up (with No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday probably in the mix).

    Our usual disclaimer: Results in 2023 don’t necessarily mean that those results will repeat themselves in 2024. But perhaps our data will reset your expectations for some of these pitchers heading into the coming season.

  • Stat of the Week: Hunter Greene Deserved Better in 2023

    Stat of the Week: Hunter Greene Deserved Better in 2023

    There was a lot of hype around Hunter Greene’s debut in 2022 and follow-up season in 2023. And Greene has had some spectacular starts the last 2 seasons, but these years have also been marked by injury and disappointment.

    Though Greene posted a 4.82 ERA in 112 innings last season, he pitched better than his final numbers indicated.

    Greene was the pitcher who underperformed relative to his expected stats the most of any pitcher that faced at least 300 batters in 2023.

    A brief point of explanation:

    Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (like what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and correspondingly single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

    This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

    Here’s the list of pitchers with the greatest differential between their expected opponents’ OPS and their actual opponents’ OPS.

    Greatest Differential – Expected OPS and Actual OPS

    2023 Season, Minimum 300 Batters Faced

    Here is Greene’s actual line compared to his expected line.

    Greene ranked right among the worst 20% of pitchers in opponents’ OPS but ranked right around the best 20% of pitchers in expected opponents’ OPS.

    I watched the 40 hits that Greene allowed with the lowest hit probabilities. Within that I saw a combination of some bad breaks and some defense that— had it been just a little bit better— would have made a difference in Greene’s numbers.

    For example with regards to bad breaks, if this ball is hit slightly to the left, it’s an inning-ending out instead of a 2-run single. Or if this ball is hit a little to the left, Will Benson makes the catch instead of just missing it, literally saving another run from his pitching line.

    Another instance of bad breaks, though this of a different kind: In Greene’s first game back from injury on August 20, he allowed 9 runs and 5 home runs in 3 innings against the Blue Jays. Yes, that’s a bad start. But 2 of the 5 home runs barely cleared the fence and were sub-25% home run probability balls by our measures (one would have been a homer in 5 parks, another 13, per Statcast).

    As for defense, Greene had the 3rd-worst Defensive Runs Saved support on batted balls of any pitcher in MLB last season. The Reds had -11 Runs Saved on the batted balls against him.

    There’s this fly ball to center field that seemed to be lost in the lights, a ball whose spin off the bat fooled shortstop Elly De La Cruz, and a ball that Greene himself just missed on which second baseman Jonathan India could not make the play quickly enough.

    The usual disclaimer applies: Just because Greene didn’t get good breaks or good defense doesn’t mean that he will in 2024. But the knowledge that he was on the right track in 2023, even if the results weren’t there, should be reassuring to him, Reds management, and their fans heading into the upcoming season.

  • Miguel Rojas is the Best Defensive Shortstop in Baseball

    Miguel Rojas is the Best Defensive Shortstop in Baseball

    Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

    The most remarkable defensive player in the game is an old man playing a kid’s position. An ageless wonder, you might say. He might rank last or next-to-last among his team’s position players in offensive production and he’s not even currently projected as his team’s regular starter.

    The Dodgers have a lot of luxuries on their roster, but the one that’s the most under-the-radar is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, Miguel Rojas. 

    The Numbers

    “Best defensive shortstop in baseball” is not a term we throw around lightly. We come with evidence. Rojas is either a leader or co-leader in Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop if we measure the last 2, 3, or 4 seasons. 

    Here are the shortstop leaders in Defensive Runs Saved over the last 3 seasons.

    Player Runs Saved Innings
    Miguel Rojas 32 3,140
    Jeremy Peña 23 2,493
    Taylor Walls 23 1,358
    Wander Franco 22 2,095
    Ha-Seong Kim 22 1,505
    Carlos Correa 21 3,562
    Isiah Kiner-Falefa 21 2,553
    Dansby Swanson 20 4,084

    Rojas ranked 5th in Runs Saved last season as a 34-year-old. The 4 shortstops ahead of him were a 29-year-old (Dansby Swanson) and three 22-year-olds (Wander Franco, Ezequiel Tovar, and Anthony Volpe). The shortstop who ranked right behind Rojas was Gunnar Henderson, who turned 22 midseason (and seems destined for third base with Jackson Holliday on the way). 

    The defensive aging curve is not kind to most players, but Rojas has defied it. He is the only shortstop who had at least 10 Runs Saved in both 2022 and 2023. He was plugged into the shortstop spot after Gavin Lux got hurt and though he didn’t hit, his glove kept him on the field as a regular.

    Could we have picked someone else as baseball’s best defensive shortstop? 

    Sure. 

    This is the part of the story where Cubs and Braves fans tell me “Dansby Swanson would like a word.” Swanson’s terrific and was a unanimous selection for a Fielding Bible Award last year. Rojas almost matched him on a Runs Saved per-inning basis in 2023 and bettered him when we took a longer view of multiple years. 

    Jeremy Peña is very good but is just a little bit behind Rojas in Runs Saved Per Inning. Ha-Seong Kim might’ve been the pick had he not moved to second base. Wander Franco doesn’t look like he’ll be playing in MLB anymore given the criminal charges he faces. One of his potential replacements on the Rays, Taylor Walls, just had hip surgery and we don’t know what he’s going to be when he returns. Anthony Volpe won an AL Gold Glove last year as a rookie. Ezequiel Tovar played well enough to win one in 2023 but lost out to Swanson. Maybe we’re talking about them as the best in MLB next year. Jorge Mateo was excellent two years ago, a little less so in 2023, so he’s a ‘not quite.’

    And the Defensive Runs Saved numbers just don’t back it up over the last 3 years for Carlos Correa, Javier Báez, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt Jr. (yes, I know, Statcast rated Witt highly in 2023 … but it didn’t in 2022). 

    What I see when I watch Rojas

    I wanted to give Rojas a comprehensive lookover not just statistically, but with video. So, I watched 150 plays from the 2023 season.

    They included

    – Every batted ball that either added or subtracted at least 0.25 runs from his Runs Saved

    – Every Good Fielding Play or Defensive Misplay & Error that wasn’t among the previous set of plays

    – A group of randomly selected plays to get me to 150

    What did I see from watching all that video? (Click the links to watch the plays)

    * He goes to his left and right well whether with shuffle-steps or other means. The various broadcasters I heard praised his quick hands and smooth hands. His reactions are quick and his anticipation gives him the head start he needs to reach balls. I saw a good number of balls hit to the first base side of shortstop that he handled easily. As our VP of Baseball, Bobby Scales noted, his movements are still fluid.

    Without concern for the numbers, I thought that Rojas looked better at going to his left than going to his right but the numbers provided context to add to that assessment. He ranked No. 1 among shortstops at converting batted balls to his left into outs in 2023, doing so 62% of the time. 

    But he also ranked 2nd among shortstops in getting outs on balls hit to his right (68%) and that was worth more when it came to his end-year Runs Saved. 

    Out Conversion Rate Runs Saved
    Balls Hit To His Right 68% (2nd) 8
    Balls Hit To His Left 62% (1st) 3

    * I once interviewed an older college basketball player who brought up the “old man tricks” he employed to keep up with younger players. For Rojas, one of his ‘old man tricks’ is the sliding stop

    Rojas slid to reach 20 batted balls in 2023. Of those 20, he got at least one out on 17 of them (85% success, MLB average is 60%). The slides served to extend his range on the toughest plays. Of the 4 batted balls worth the most positive value to Rojas’ Runs Saved, 3 of them were plays that required Rojas to slide to make them.

    * Rojas’ misses aren’t for lack of effort. The 4 defensive plays that cost Rojas the most in Runs Saved this season were all batted balls in which the effort was there, whether it be a leap, dive, reach, or charge. Speaking of diving, Rojas isn’t shy about doing that, even at his age and even though he misses on dives a lot more than he succeeds. He dove for 38 balls last season (getting at least one out on 7 of them). Only 4 shortstops had more diving attempts than Rojas did. When he does make a diving play, it’s usually a really good one.

    Did you know: 25 shortstops played at least 100 games at the position last season. Miguel Rojas was the oldest of those 25.

    * He doesn’t have a strong arm … and that’s ok. 

    Per Statcast’s leaderboards his 84.5MPH average velocity on the top 5% of his throws ranks 29th. His 90.5 MPH maximum speed ranks 26th. This lack of zip comes into play sometimes though not a lot. 

    But eye-popping velo isn’t a necessity for the position. Though Tovar and Henderson throw harder than Rojas does, Peña and Volpe both throw slower to first base on average than Rojas does. Swanson, who has beaten out Rojas for the last 2 NL Gold Glove Awards, throws almost 5 MPH slower than Rojas does (79.7). And Rojas still can make a hard throw when it’s most needed.

    * Our stat tracking provided considerable help when it came to watching video of Rojas’ mistakes, as it turned out that it was rare that we saw any. 

    Our Video Scouts watch every play of every game and track plays we previously mentioned, known as “Good Fielding Plays” and “Defensive Misplays.” Good Plays include your typical dives, slides, and jumps to get outs, but also things like keeping the ball on the infield to prevent a runner from taking an extra base. Defensive Misplays are errors but also are plays  not scored errors but that could be, like failing to complete a double play, or initially breaking back on a ball that lands just in front of you.

    In the last 3 seasons, Rojas ranks 2nd in both most Good Fielding Plays and fewest Misplays & Errors per 1,000 innings among shortstops (24 and 17). 

    In 2023 by itself, he ranked 6th in Good Plays and 1st in Misplays and Errors per 1,000 innings, respectively (19 and 15).

    2024 Outlook

    Currently, Rojas is a backup, not just to a now-healthy Lux at shortstop, but at the other 3 infield positions for the Dodgers too, as he has at least 70 career games of experience at each. He’ll report to spring training in a few weeks, turn 35, and will try to keep himself healthy and useful.

    Hitting a little more would help. Rojas actually hit better than his final results indicated. That’s another story for another time (or click here to read the article and leaderboard and see what I’m talking about).

    There’s a funny thing in all of this. While we feel definitive about our perspective about how well Rojas plays defense, there’s much less certainty when it comes to how much he’ll play in 2024.

  • Q&A: Orioles pitching strategy coach Ryan Klimek

    Q&A: Orioles pitching strategy coach Ryan Klimek

    Ryan Klimek is the pitching strategy coach for the Orioles. He’s also an alumnus of Sports Info Solutions having previously worked for us in 2014. Ryan is highly unusual in that he never played the sport at the college or professional level (he’s a graduate of SUNY-Geneseo). On The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon got to talk to Ryan about his background and what he does for the Orioles.

    You can hear the full interview here or below. The written interview has been edited both for length and so that it makes sense.

    Mark: Where did the passion for baseball and pitching strategy come from?

    Ryan: My dad played at Ithaca College. my brother went to St. Bonaventure and was drafted by the Orioles in 2015. Those two got more of the talent gene than I did. I had the fandom they did. Our childhood was spent visiting ballparks near Rochester: Toronto, Cleveland, Pittsburgh.

    Once I got into college, I majored in math, initially wanted to be a math teacher. But I decided that there was another side of baseball that I’m really interested in, the analytical side.

    Pitching strategy was by chance. When Brandon Hyde got brought on as manager, we divided the advance scouting department into run creation and run prevention. It just happened that I was on the run prevention side, so my energy and passion took me in this direction.

    Mark: Your baseball playing career ended early, right?

    Ryan: Yeah, I played through high school varsity baseball, messed around with some fall ball at Keuka College but I was a more talented basketball player than baseball player. So I never played professionally but I’ve been lucky to find an avenue that has fit me really well.

    Mark: You worked for SIS in 2014, worked for other teams in the minor leagues, the Mariners and Angels. What were some of the things you took away from those jobs that got you to where you are now?

    Ryan: I really did not have a ton on my resume that could support me getting a job with a major league baseball team. So I saw SIS was looking for Video Scouts. It was a great fit. It helped me get my feet in the door for the data and science behind the game. I watched a ton of baseball, multiple games every day. One of the biggest benefits for me was that I was able to just acquaint myself with players that maybe I wouldn’t watch when I was sitting at home.

    Mark: What did you get out of working with the Mariners and the Angels?

    Ryan: I was with the Mariners in 2015 as a Double-A video intern. That was just drinking water out of a fire hydrant.  The exposure to professional players and the process. and what goes into it every single day in the clubhouse was really eye opening.

    After the Mariners internship had ended, I was able to go to the Angels and work in the front office there and contribute on the advance scouting side as well as the amateur draft, sitting in on those meetings. That’s a really cool two years where I was able to expose myself to all different avenues of baseball operations player development, amateur scouting, advance scouting, So it was just really just a lot of learning and taking it all in.

    Mark: You’ve been with the Orioles since 2017, which means that you’ve not only seen the best of times, which happened this past year, and we’ll certainly talk about that, but you’ve seen the worst of times too. In 2018, 2019, the team lost 115 and 108 games. But you had to have gotten something out of that because you stuck it out.

    What did you get out of working those two years, with a team that struggled so much?

    Ryan: In 2017, I was down in Sarasota for the year, got to see where it all starts for these guys on the way to Baltimore and then 2018, I was much closer to the major league product where I was in the clubhouse, my first year as an advance scout.

    It was very eye opening to me to just be exposed to that side of the clubhouse, and the intensity of every single day. and yeah, our window had kind of closed, and it was tough. But at the same time, it was my first year where I was still learning so much.

    And then once we hired Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias in 2019, the process changed significantly. and I couldn’t be more grateful to see this thing from the bottom to present day. and the work that Mike and Brandon have done with instituting analytics. Our advance process is very crisp and clean right now.

    Those years were painful, but at the same time, it gave us some opportunity to try some new things and take our time. And I think the results have kind of shown itself over the last two seasons.

    Mark: Your current role is Major League pitching strategy coach. What does someone with that role do?

    Ryan: From 2019 to 2021 and kind of into part of 2022, I was kind of your traditional advance scout where I do all the scouting reports on the opposing hitters. formulate the game plan, and then try to convey that to our pitchers pre-game, as simple as I could. In 2022, I moved into a new role, where they threw me in the dugout, and the real kind of reasoning behind it is that we do all this conversation and, preparation before the game, but then once we get into the game, I wasn’t there to be a reference.

    So, It’s really kind of similar type of things that I was doing as an advance scout, but now I’m there for the players to rely on in game, when things pop up in the second time through the order or if they just have questions on certain hitters. I’m there for them to answer questions.

    Mark: What are you working with? You’re working with data, you’re working with video, you’re working with heat maps, I would imagine. What are the different things at your disposal?

    Ryan: Yeah, I think the analytics department does so much work for us and they make my job significantly easier than just relying on my thoughts and my brain and whatnot.

    So, we’re in lockstep, all season and, and they provide tons of references for me to use. It helps keep things simple for both the pitchers and for the catchers, too, because they’re the ones that are putting down the signs, or nowadays, pressing the button. so I work with those guys all the time. I can’t speak highly enough of Daniel Martin and the work that he’s done, for us.

    It’s important to be trusting the data that’s in front of you as the long-term picture of how we want to attack guys, but at the same time being able to use all those years of watching the opposing hitters and understanding the adjustments that they’ve made, and, and what they look like present day versus who they looked like two years ago or three years ago.

    I kind of blend that all all into my head and come to a concise, simple way of relaying it to both the pitchers and the catchers.

    Mark: So we had Adley Rutschman on the podcast last year and he spoke highly of you. He said you’re the voice of reason, which gets to what you’re talking about.

    What’s an example of a conversation that you’re having with Adley Rutschman or James McCann and the pitching coaches, about a hitter?

    Ryan: I try to keep it as simple as I can for Rutsch and McCann. These are two guys that I work with every single day, probably more than the pitchers, to be honest with you. and just try to keep it simple for them, because I know that those guys have a lot going through their head during the game. They’ve got to call the pitches and still play defense and still hit.

    There may be certain guys that I just feel confident that we can spin a lot. I think at times there might be a human instinct to maybe deviate from a plan and whatnot, but it’s really trusting the work that we’ve done going into the game, identifying the weakness of the hitter and sticking to that plan, unless there’s a good reason to deviate.

    Mark: How receptive were players to you when you first started essentially in a role like this?

    Ryan: I never played in the big leagues or never played in the minor leagues.

    That’s my background and it kind of is what it is and I acknowledge that there’s, there’s an experience part of the playing side that I’ll never be able to replace. But I’ve been in the clubhouse for quite a while now, since 2018. I think that as long as you come prepared and you’re knowledgeable, about the work that you’ve done, you’ll gain the respect and the attention of others. What I do is to just control what I can control. And that is to put in the effort every day and to know these teams and what our game plan is as well as I possibly can, and then over time, you gain trust with people.

    So, that’s kind of where, where we are now, where I’m humbled and, and so grateful to, to be able to kind of have this role, with the lack of playing experience that I have, and be able to have these guys respect me and the work that I do and, and what I can bring to it.

    Mark: Let’s use a pitcher as an example, and, you mentioned that you work more closely with the catchers, but when someone like Kyle Bradish pitches, when you’re game planning for him, and you’re trying to create something, and you’re looking at the opposing lineup … he had an interesting season in that he wasn’t necessarily thought of as an ace-caliber pitcher at the start of the season, but by the end of the season, he had gotten pretty close to that level.

    His usage changed 2022 to 2023, more sinkers, a number of things changed with how he pitched. How did your game plan for him evolve as you discovered things about how good he could be?

    Ryan: We treat every pitcher differently because they are all different. So the, the main thing that we want to make sure of beyond getting too sophisticated or too in-depth with creating a game plan is that the pitchers are using their strengths in what they do well.

    Towards the end of 2022,  Kyle was messing around with the sinker a bit. and then we saw it get into the mix a bit more heavily in ‘23. It’s known that he can really spin it in two different ways. So sometimes it’s really just being able to recognize what these guys do really well and to Kyle’s credit, he was able to really kind of hone in on, on the command of both the two-seam and his breaking balls that it gave us options for how we want to use these pitches. and it gave him the confidence and conviction that he could have throwing them in certain counts and he might’ve been uncomfortable throwing them beforehand.

    It’s important to understand what the pitcher does well and that we want to use that. We might turn some knobs here and there, depending on the hitter, of how many breaking balls he sees versus fastballs or changeups. But a lot of it was Kyle being able to really command those pitches and be comfortable using them in spots he might not have been ready to use them in his first season.

    Mark: Is it kind of like you’re playing chess?

    Ryan: A bit. I think that we are pretty scientific in the way that we do things. but at the same time, I do think that there’s a piece of it where it’s still a game and might have to make some adjustments as you gather more information. But that’s kind of the reason why I got into this.

    I never imagined myself being in a major league dugout. That was never in my career plan when I left SIS, but, it’s been pretty unbelievable to see it play out in this form where I do feel like I’m using kind of the analytical side of my brain and the math background and, at the same time,  still recognizing that it’s a game and being able to put all those years of watching video to use as well.

    Mark: What’s your best ‘I was in the dugout’ story? Did someone run over you trying to get a foul ball?

    Ryan: Sometimes those balls are hit so hard at the dugout that it’s terrifying.

    Especially when I’m standing there with no glove or any protection, besides a piece of paper in my hand. I think that when those guys started to do ‘the sprinkler’ that became viral, that was pretty funny to be a part of  or witness the first few times that it happened. It was a great celebration.

    Even the implementation of the birdbath in the outfield, it really caught on, so That was cool to be a part of and see that happen the first time.

    Mark: What advice do you have for someone pursuing a baseball career?

    Ryan: Be prepared for the hours. I think that once you get into this game, you sacrifice a lot of things in life, missing weddings, tons of family events, summer holidays and things of that sort. If you’re going to commit, then fully commit and, be ready for it to take away from those types of things.

    It’s not all glamour. You might see the major league clubhouse and the dugout and all that type of stuff, and I wouldn’t trade it for anything. Don’t get me wrong. But there’s plenty of days where it’s really long and then you got a rain delay and you don’t get back to the hotel until 2:30 a.m. Or you’ve got a flight somewhere else afterwards.

    I think that the hours pay off. Just really be ready to grind and to listen. I’ve been so lucky to work with so many different people in this game that it’s just great to hear their experience, their perspective on things and, always be willing to listen and adapt.

    Mark: What does a coach like you do during the winter?

    Ryan: I fully support the Buffalo Bills, so I’m still reeling from that.

    From the work side of things,  it’s a lot of ad hoc stuff from the front office with certain tasks that they might provide me and might be looking into our guys and what maybe we could have done differently usage-wise last year. I might be taking a look at a free agent we think that we could do something different with.

    But now as we get closer to spring training, kind of turning the attention, really focusing on our guys, our player plans, things that we want to institute this year, catching up with guys on what they’ve been working on in the offseason, and kind of starting to let the wheels turn in my head already about how we can use these weapons that guys have differently next year than maybe we did last year.

    Mark: Thanks, Ryan.

    Ryan: Thank you, Mark. I appreciate it.

  • Stat of the Week: CC Sabathia and the Hall of Fame

    Stat of the Week: CC Sabathia and the Hall of Fame

    I think there’s an interesting question to be raised when the next ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame comes out.

    The 2 new candidates on the ballot who stand the best chance of election will be Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia.

    Ichiro is a no-doubt lock and it wouldn’t surprise me if he matched or bettered Adrián Beltré’s 95% from this year’s Hall of Fame class.

    But what about Sabathia?

    If we use statistical evaluation tools to evaluate his candidacy, he’s really, really close. Baseball-Reference tracks a player’s Hall of Fame Career Standards Score from a method devised by Bill James. Sabathia scores a 48. The average Hall of Famer scores a 50.

    Using more recently developed methodologies, Sabathia scores a 491.2 on Bill’s Hall of Fame Value stat, a stat devised in 2019 for which 500 was the intended target for the Hall.

    And in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, he ranks 55th among starting pitchers. His bWAR and 7-year peak WAR come out about 10.5 WAR below the average Hall-of-Famer.

    The question for voters is going to be, where do you set your personal bar among Sabathia’s contemporaries?

    There are some no-doubters that should be ahead of Sabathia on the Hall of Fame candidate list. Among active pitchers, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer fit that description. Zack Greinke checks out very well too even if he never throws another pitch. Some contemporaries are already in and deservedly so, like Roy Halladay.

    Statistically speaking, Sabathia slides in behind those guys but ahead of the likes of Mark Buehrle (who got 8% of the vote on the last ballot), Tim Hudson (5% and 3% on 2 ballots), Cole Hamels (not yet eligible), Adam Wainwright (not eligible), and another pitcher on the upcoming ballot, Félix Hernández.

    Sabathia’s credentials include

    – 251 wins and 3,093 strikeouts

    – The 2007 AL Cy Young Award and 4 other Top-5 Cy Young finishes

    – 6 All-Star selections

    – A World Series ring on a 2009 Yankees team for which he was an ace

    – An epic finish to his 2008 season 

    (1.65 ERA in last 17 starts, pitched the Brewers to the Wild Card)

    – Good standing in baseball as vice-president of The Player’s Alliance

    The thing that hurts his standing is his 3.74 career ERA, one that jumped almost a quarter-point in the last 7 years of his career when he was not as good as he was in his prime, as he learned to adjust to diminished velocity.

    But while 3.74 doesn’t look great on the surface, his ERA+ (ERA adjusted for the time he played and the ballparks he pitched in) is 116.

    There are definitely good pitchers with an ERA+ right around 116, guys you wouldn’t think of as Hall-of-Famers. But there are some all-time greats from other time periods too, like Hall-of-Famers Ferguson Jenkins (115) and Steve Carlton (115).

    My point here is that Sabathia’s ERA, relative to when he pitched, can be a diminishing factor but not an eliminating factor when it comes to a Hall vote. He’s still a good candidate even with a 3.74 ERA.

    I want to touch on one other point that I think favors Sabathia: his 3,577 1/3 innings pitched. No one has more among pitchers who debuted in the last 35 seasons.

    From 2007 to 2009, three years in which Sabathia was his best self, he threw 724 regular season innings and another 55 1/3 innings in the postseason. His regular season ERA, adjusted for ballpark was 44% better than league average. 

    In the last 3 seasons, the pitcher closest to Sabathia’s combined 779 1/3 total innings pitched in that time is Aaron Nola (628 innings pitched combining regular and postseason). That’s 151 fewer innings pitched. We can make a similar point if we look at 4,5, 6, or 7 seasons.

    Starting pitcher function is markedly different in 2024 than it was for most of Sabathia’s career. Once Greinke, Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw retire, it might be awhile before anyone reaches 3,000 innings. Gerrit Cole is probably 6 healthy years away.

    I’m of the belief that pitchers from Sabathia’s era should garner a level of appreciation commensurate with the workload those pitchers took on. That’s why I look at Sabathia with great respect. Pitchers are going to be hard pressed to pitch as much as he did and accomplish what he accomplished.

    Now, you could make a similar, perhaps even a better case about a lot of pitchers that came from other eras: Rick Reuschel, Dave Stieb, Kevin Brown just to name a few. But that’s not what we’re here for. They’re not on the BBWAA ballot anymore.

    We’re here to show that Sabathia, as good as you think he was, was arguably even better than you think. And he is a highly viable candidate for the Baseball Hall of Fame who deserves immediate consideration for the game’s top honor.

    We discuss Hall of Fame candidacies with SIS VP of Baseball Bobby Scales along with an interview of Orioles pitching strategy coach Ryan Klimek, and scouting reports on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and others from Brandon Tew on our latest baseball podcast.