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  • Stat of the Week: The Super Bowl Pass Catchers

    Stat of the Week: The Super Bowl Pass Catchers

    Photo: Rich Von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

    If you’re a subscriber to this newsletter, you know that one of the strengths of what Sports Info Solutions does with baseball data is that we’re able to separate out different aspects of a player’s skill.

    With a stat like Defensive Runs Saved, we’re able to tell you who the best players are in different components, like turning double plays, pitch framing, or deterring baserunners with their outfield arm.

    We can do this in football too, and since Super Bowl LX is the hottest story in sports at the moment, let’s do that using the two teams playing in that game and show some of what they’re best at.

    The Patriots and Seahawks rank second and third, respectively, in overall Receiving Total Points.

    Most Receiving Total Points – 2025 Season

    Team

    Receiving Total Points

    1. Lions

    120

    2. Patriots

    118

    3. Seahawks

    102

    4. Rams

    101

    5. 49ers

    97

    6. Cardinals

    90

    7. Cowboys

    86

    8. Bengals

    80

    9. Bills

    80

    10. Colts

    78

    What does that mean?

    Total Points is our all-encompassing player value stat, which can be used to evaluate any player at any position for every play he was involved in this season. Just as Defensive Runs Saved doesn’t only work off run-saving plays, Total Points does not equate to actual points (it’s not the number of points you got from touchdowns). It’s its own measure of value (learn more about it here). For players, this roughly corresponds to the amount of points on the scoreboard that these players were worth.

    For pass catchers, we separate the skills involved in making a reception from everything else that happens. A pass catcher gets credits and debits based on how they perform compared to an expectation.

    They get evaluated on how well they earn targets and how well they catch the ball and gain yards after the catch based on the route, coverage, throw accuracy, and how much space they had at the catch point.

    There are also adjustments based on the quality of the blocking, as blown blocks will prevent an offense from operating at full capacity.

    The Seahawks and Patriots receivers have performed the best in the NFL by our measures. On a Receiving Total Points Per-Play basis, the Seahawks and Patriots rank first and second, respectively.

    Puka Nacua of the Rams was the NFL’s leader in 2025, earning 63 Receiving Total Points. Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba earned 43 Receiving Total Points, which ranked third overall. Stefon Diggs of the Patriots ranked sixth and his teammate, Hunter Henry, ranked 10th.

    Here were the top 10 players in Receiving Total Points in 2025.

    Player

    Team

    Receiving Total Points

    1. Puka Nacua

    Rams

    63

    2. Trey McBride

    Cardinals

    52

    3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    Seahawks

    43

    4. Bijan Robinson

    Falcons

    39

    5. Ja’Marr Chase

    Bengals

    38

    6. Stefon Diggs

    Patriots

    36

    7. Amon-Ra St. Brown

    Lions

    36

    8. George Pickens

    Cowboys

    35

    9. Justin Jefferson

    Vikings

    32

    10. Hunter Henry

    Patriots

    31

    Where Smith-Njigba separated himself from everyone (except Nacua) was on receptions of passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield. He caught 28 of 44 passes of that length, with the 64% completion percentage ranking third-best among the 40 players that had the most targets.

    Diggs differentiated himself on shorter passes. He had the third-most Receiving Total Points on passes thrown 0 to 5 yards downfield, catching 44 of 49 targets, which gave him the best reception percentage among the 50 players that had the most targets (90%).

    Henry worked more in-between compared to what Diggs and Smith-Njigba did. He had 18 of his 31 Receiving Total Points on passes thrown 5 to 15 yards downfield, and he was a high-end performer on throws that distance specifically on third and fourth down, which has prominent value within the Total Points model.

    The Patriots have five players who rank in the top 100 in Receiving Total Points, so there’s considerable depth in terms of receiving skills (the list: Diggs, Henry, No. 51 Demario Douglas, No. 67 Kayshon Boutte, and No. 93 Rhamondre Stevenson) . The Seahawks are a little more top heavy with three players ranking in the top 31 (Smith-Njigba, No. 29 AJ Barner, and No. 31 Cooper Kupp).

    You’re going to hear a lot about the skills of the two quarterbacks the next 10 days and Drake Maye and Sam Darnold certainly are worthy of recognition. But completing a pass is a two-person deal and the guys doing the receiving for both teams have really put the work in this year and should be noted as well.

  • Optimistic and Pessimistic Takeaways for the Seahawks and Rams After Week 16

    Optimistic and Pessimistic Takeaways for the Seahawks and Rams After Week 16

    Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

    Arguably the biggest game of the year so far took place last Thursday night and it did not disappoint. History was made, with us witnessing the first NFL game to end with a walk-off 2-point conversion. The Seattle Seahawks got their revenge and defeated the Los Angeles Rams 38-37, gaining the inside track to representing the NFC as the first seed in the process. 

    The Rams will be kicking themselves for letting go of the game that was all but theirs, but all is not lost. They should still feel confident in their chances come January, backed by the fact that they rank 1st overall in our team Total Points metric.* 

    *For a refresher, here is our primer on Total Points.

    The Seahawks came into the match ranking 2nd themselves, and the two bouts between them so far have further emphasized how neck and neck the two clubs are, well summarized by this stat. 

    Let’s take a deeper look into why each team should and shouldn’t feel confident about its chances to win it all.

     

    Why the Seahawks can win the Super Bowl: Improving rushing attack, special teams advantage

    In my previous article, I covered why the Seahawks should still feel like they’re in the mix due to their defense but in order to truly contend, they will need to answer questions about both their running and passing games, especially against elite defenses in high-stakes moments. 

    While they still have more to prove to completely quell those concerns, especially in their passing attack, their showing last Thursday was a step in the right direction. 

    The Seahawks entered the game with the 2nd worst rushing EPA per attempt in the league. Given that placement, it may seem odd that they ranked 14th in rushing Total Points per attempt, but that can be explained by them ranking as the worst run blocking unit in the same metric. 

    They arguably had their best rushing performance of the season so far, gaining 171 yards on 25 carries, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. The numbers matched what our eyes were telling us, improving across the board:

    Rushing EPA/A Rushing TP/A Run Blocking TP/A
    Weeks 1-15 -0.10 0.05 0.15
    Week 16 0.24 0.27 0.25

    Seattle must continue to demonstrate that it can punish opposing defenses on the ground and take pressure off Sam Darnold and the receiving corps. Teams that end up lifting the Lombardi trophy are often the best at problem solving and have other pitches to go to when their fastball is compromised, so to speak.  

    An area they have already proven to be among the league’s elite throughout the season is special teams. The Seahawks rank 6th in special teams Total Points per play, backing up that ranking with top 5 rankings in both punt and kickoff average return yards. 

    The momentum-shifting punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed upped Seattle’s combined punt and kick return touchdown total to three, tied for most in the league. They also have three combined punt and field goal blocks, again tied for most in the league, showcasing their penchant for making plays in all phases of special teams.

     

    Why not the Seahawks: Passing questions remain, turnovers

    To Sam Darnold’s credit, he demonstrated that he could deliver when the team needed him to and win a game with massive stakes, particularly against a team who has given him the most trouble the past couple of seasons. 

    For the last half of the fourth and overtime, Darnold went 8 for 11 (excluding a spike) for 91 yards and two touchdowns, in addition to completing two 2-point conversions. At least for one game, he was able to get the proverbial monkey off of his back. 

    For the first three-and-a-half quarters however, things didn’t seem that way, with Chris Shula and his defense seemingly flummoxing Darnold at every turn and forcing two back-breaking picks, both with disguised coverages. 

    I noted previously that up through Week 11, the Seahawks had a negative passing EPA for the season when facing dime personnel (6+ defensive backs). Things were more of the same last Thursday, with them posting a 10% success rate and -13 EPA against dime (-5 EPA against nickel as well).

    There is still time for Darnold and the Seahawks to establish whether they can perform consistently when in obvious passing down situations, but for now things don’t look fixed.

    In addition to the two aforementioned interceptions, Cooper Kupp also lost a fumble to his former team, bringing Seattle’s turnover total up to 26, second-most in the league. Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle are the only teams over .500 with a negative turnover differential. 

    Teams who have lost the turnover battle are a combined 41-143-1 so far in the 2025 season.  Needless to say, the Seahawks need to turn things around in that department to give themselves the best chance come January.

     

    Why the Rams can win the Super Bowl: Complete team on offense

    In a lot of ways, the Rams are who the Seahawks want to become on offense. They are 1st in offensive team Total Points per play, in large part due to having top 5 players at both quarterback and wide receiver in Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua. 

    Even having to face an elite defense, Stafford lit up the Seahawks, throwing for 457 yards and three touchdowns with no picks. Nacua accounted for 12 of those completions, racking up a ludicrous 225 yards and two touchdowns. 

    If that wasn’t enough, they also employ the receiving touchdowns leader, Davante Adams, though it may take a while for him to return to form, as detailed in this piece by Alex Vigderman.

    The passing attack is counterbalanced by a solid run game led by Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, ranking 3rd in rushing success rate and 4th lowest in percentage of runs hit at the line. 

    Since Week 9, the midway point of the season, among tailbacks, Williams ranks 1st in rushing EPA per attempt and 11th in Total Points per play, while Corum ranks 12th and 6th in those same categories respectively. 

    Their offensive line is nothing to sneeze at either, ranking 3rd in blocking Total Points per play. They have the 4th lowest blown block percentage in the league and rank 2nd and 4th in sack and pressure percentage allowed, respectively. The Seahawks couldn’t bring Stafford down even once. 

    Over the full season, both the Rams and Seahawks are among the best teams in keeping the quarterback clean (and doing so without spamming quick game).

    Scatterplot of blown block rate and pressure rate allowed, with a slight trend between them. The Seahawks and Rams are in the bottom-left (good) end.

    * Bottom left is best

     

    Why not the Rams: Defensive slippage, special teams mistakes

    Honestly a bit of a nitpick here, as I would consider the Rams to employ a good defense. But no team is perfect and they are no exception. 

    The Rams are quietly 19th in run defense Total Points per play. They have allowed over 120 rushing yards in four of their past six games, and two of those four have resulted in losses, including Thursday night. 

    Against play action, they came into the game ranked T-7th-worst in EPA allowed per dropback, 8th-worst in boom percentage allowed, and 2nd-worst in bust percentage forced (where boom plays gain the offense 1 EPA or more and bust plays lose the offense 1 EPA or more). The Seahawks exploited this, with Darnold completing 10 of 13 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns when in play action. 

    If opposing teams can establish their attacks on the ground and make hay with play action, the Rams have shown themselves to be susceptible. 

    A not-so-quiet underperforming phase of their team that reared its head in this game is special teams, and this proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back with the firing of their special teams coordinator, Chase Blackburn. 

    The Rams rank 23rd in special teams Total Points per play. Special team blunders played a crucial role in three of their four losses this season, which include allowing two blocked field goals—one of which was returned for the game-deciding touchdown—against the Eagles, allowing a blocked extra point against the 49ers, and then giving up the punt return touchdown to the Seahawks.

    Final Words

    The Seahawks should be feeling great after wrestling away control of the NFC, but they know the job is not finished. They have questions they will need to continue to address through the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. 

    On the other side, even though they lost, the Rams have a solid argument for being the NFC’s best and most complete team. Their questions may prove to be more easily addressable as well. 

    Both the Seahawks and the Rams are top five teams by almost any overall measure of team quality. They are evenly matched through two, and there is a decent chance the two will meet again for a third and final match. 

    The winner may well represent the NFC in Santa Clara. Which of the two will come out victorious? I, for one, can’t wait to find out.  

  • A Midseason Review of the Micah Parsons Trade

    A Midseason Review of the Micah Parsons Trade

    Photo: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire

    Now that the dust has settled, we can start to examine the impact of the Micah Parsons trade that happened this offseason. Both teams are experiencing significant changes with their defense this season and not only in terms of results like pressure rate and success rate, but also with how they are structured and operate as a unit. Green Bay’s decision to acquire Parsons addressed its pass rush need, while Dallas believes that Kenny Clark will help improve its run defense.  

    With the Cowboys, Micah Parsons was asked to line up all over the defensive formation but was especially effective as a stand up rusher. In 2024, The Cowboys had pressure rates of 12.9% for stand up rushers on the left and 15% for stand up rushers on the right. This year, those numbers are 13.6% and 11.5%, respectively. 

    Sacks aren’t coming as easy for the Cowboys either. Micah was often asked to mug over the A gap, and rushers from that technique sacked the quarterback 3% of the time with a staggering 21.5% pressure rate for the Cowboys. This year, mugging linebackers don’t have any sacks for the Cowboys and they are only generating pressure on 12.5% of passing plays. 

    Parsons’ versatility was a big part of how the Cowboys were able to generate pressure in 2024, and they are changing how they present themselves to offenses to try and make up for it this year. The Cowboys are lining up with stand-up edge rushers more frequently in order to try and conceal where the rush may be coming from. 

    As the Cowboys try to hunt for a comparable replacement strategy off the edge, the player they got in return, Kenny Clark, does not seem to be living up to expectations in Dallas. He has not been the difference-making run stuffer that Dallas had dreamed of, as the Cowboys defense is giving up 0.9 EPA/30 Rushes with him on the field and 0.6 EPA/30 Rushes when he’s off the field. In other words, he is not improving their run defense like the Cowboys had hoped. The last five games they’ve allowed an average of nearly 170 rushing yards allowed.

    Additionally, the Cowboys are significantly worse against the pass when Clark plays as well, giving up 9.0 EPA/30 Passes when he is on the field and -0.6 EPA/30 Passes when he’s off the field, yet the Cowboys are still playing him on 68% of passing downs. 

    Conversely, and as expected, Micah Parsons is transforming the Packers passing defense. He is a major factor against the pass, as the average EPA/Play on passing downs is nearly a full 0.1 per play better when he is on the field. The Packers’ defense also performs better as a unit against the run while he is in, allowing -3.6 EPA/60 Plays when he is on the field and -2.4 EPA/60 Plays when he isn’t.

    In tangible terms, he is more than doubling Kenny Clark’s pressure percentage as a pass rusher with a 23% pressure rate compared to Clark’s 9%.

    It remains to be seen who will ultimately prosper the most from this trade as the Cowboys are owed multiple first-round picks. But the initial returns have an immensely positive effect for Green Bay as the Packers have ultimately found their star pass rusher while maintaining success against the run. Meanwhile Dallas not only failed to improve its run defense, but is now struggling to replace the passing rushing success it once had with Parsons.

  • What Liam Coen Means When He Says It’s 100% A Go

    What Liam Coen Means When He Says It’s 100% A Go

    The Jaguars seemed to pull defeat from the jaws of victory against the Bengals on Sunday, enough so that head coach Liam Coen had to answer for a particular fourth down play late in the game.

    With just under 4 minutes left and a 3-point lead, they chose to go for a 4th-and-5 from the Bengals’ 7 yard line instead of lining up for a chip-shot field goal. They failed to convert, and the Bengals proceeded to march 92 yards down the field and score the winning touchdown with barely any time left on the clock.

    Asked about it afterward, Coen said, “In all analytics, in all data, it’s 100% a go.” And in response to that, I watched a TV personality question that statement, saying you have to feel out the situation.

    But honestly, we might not even need to bring analytics into play.

    Normally, there’s a lot of Monday-morning-quarterbacking after having seen the result, and people browbeat the decision-maker in part because of the bad result. But in this spot, the eventual result presents the exact reason why going for it is a good decision! If we knew the Bengals were going to be able to go down the field and score a touchdown with no time left, obviously the Jaguars should be pushing for a touchdown in that spot.

    But let’s take a look at “the analytics” and see how we might have evaluated that question.

    SIS has a win probability model that is trained on the last few years of basic game state information, and it can also incorporate a measure of recent team strength. For fourth down decision-making purposes, we consider the three possible choices (punt, kick, and go for it) and pit them against each other based on historical performance.

    I’ll start with the top-level result: we also would have this as a “go”. I’ll explain in a bit why there could be some slight caveats there.

    Field goal: 77% win probability

    Based on recent league history, we estimate that a field goal from this spot has a 98% chance of bringing your lead to 6. The result is likely to be the Bengals starting their upcoming drive down by 6 at around their own 30, which puts the Jaguars at about a 77% chance to win according to our model, all else equal.

    The Jaguars might think their kicker is better or worse than that average, but there’s really only downside in that wiggle room, given how short the kick is. So that’s not something that makes the decision any more difficult to make.

    Would that number be meaningfully different if we incorporated the strength of the opponent? Not really, because by this point in the game there isn’t that much time for the strength or weakness of a team to exert itself. Anything can happen in a one-drive sample.

    Go for it: 84% win probability

    With the go-for-it option, there are some more considerations.

    If the Jaguars moved the chains, recent data suggests a better-than-even chance of making it into the end zone on that play, but even if they didn’t, we’re looking at a 94% chance of winning. You’re still very likely to score a touchdown, you could kick a field goal and burn a bunch of clock or timeouts, or you could burn clock and bury the Bengals in the shadow of their own goal post.

    If they don’t make it, they’ve still set the Bengals up for a long drive to make. They could force overtime with a field goal (producing a ~50/50 situation), or drive the full distance for a winning score in regulation. In that situation, the Jaguars have a 74% chance of winning.

    We estimate the success rate for a 4th-and-5 near the goal line to be 45%. Right around a coin flip, so right around halfway between the success and failure situations.

    The result is that we estimate a pretty meaningful advantage to going for it over kicking the field goal. Of course, 7 percent is a much less impactful difference late in the fourth quarter than it is in the first, so we wouldn’t have this as a 100% no-brainer, but it’s a decent chunk of value.

    Is the answer that simple?

    When we talk about sports analytics, it’s important to acknowledge two things: “analytics” isn’t some single methodology that produces a monolithic conclusion, and analytical research is not the final answer to any question.

    Our model is going to produce a different win probability for all of these situations than plenty of other models. We’re all using similar inputs, but we’re employing them differently, making different underlying assumptions, and deploying different modeling approaches. If our model is +/- 5 percent different from another model in most situations (not that much in the scheme of things), then it’s possible that another model thinks that there’s a slight lean in favor of a field goal in this spot.

    And what about factors the model doesn’t consider? Were the Jaguars playing below-average football at that time, and therefore could be assumed to have a lower expected success rate on the fourth down try? With our model, that expected success rate would need to be as low as 15% to flip the decision. That’s a tough sell on its own, but maybe a couple specific features of this situation conspire to tip the scales.

    That’s why you want a give and take between the team’s model and the decision makers on the ground. The model is going to consider a whole bunch of factors and operationalize years of relevant history, but it might not be reflecting that the Bengals’ quarterback got hurt earlier in the game, or that the Jaguars’ passing game was generating under 5 yards per attempt in the second half. NFL rules are fairly constrained on what tech can and cannot be employed during the game, so there isn’t much leeway to do in-game model adjustments.

    All of these recommendations should have a fudge factor, which is something we employ in our own fourth down reports. We’ll have some very strong recommendations but given the combination of the model’s wiggle room and the specific context of the game, there are a ton of situations in the squishy middle. It’s in that squishy middle where teams can use some of this context to their advantage; they just have to be conscious of treating that new information with the appropriate number of grains of salt.

  • A New Expected Points Model

    A New Expected Points Model

    In the dynamic world of football, there are an infinite number of variables to consider when analyzing the game. Expected Points offers a lens through which to view team performance, moving beyond simple yardage gains. By accounting for critical game state variables, Expected Points provides a robust baseline for evaluating how well a team moves (or stops) the ball.

    As an analytics service, we have our own Expected Points model, as many services do, that takes game state variables and quantifies the amount of points a team should score on the play. However, by recently digging into our original model, we found some gaps that we wanted to address when comparing the actual scoring results of the game. Before addressing those changes, let’s dive into how the original model was built.

    The Old Model

    Our previous model used down, to go distance, distance to the end zone, and whether or not the offense is the home team. Usually, the first three listed are the core of all Expected Points models, but we also added the binary “home offense” feature to add a little more context.

    Although effective, we found a phenomenon that our model was less calibrated at the end of halves, especially at the end of games. Also, we found a substantial difference between the actual results and our model in 4th quarters as to whether or not the offensive team was losing. To get to the root cause, we needed to dive deeper into the scoring environment at these times.

    Time Left vs. Scoring Percentage by the End of the Half

    In the graph above, we can see that the rate of scoring decreases as available time in the half decreases in the NFL (time left = 0 on the left side of the chart). Intuitive, yes, but we also see the severity changes given the times. 

    In the 4th quarter, we see scoring begin to decrease sharper at the 15 minute mark (beginning of the 4th quarter) and then decrease more and more sharply at the 2 minute intervals outlined above. 

    This also occurs in the first half and in overtime, but the decline starts much later. The shape in the last 4 minutes of the first half is mostly similar to the shape of the 8-10 minute mark in the second half. This same trend exists on the college side as well.

    NFL Model Calibration – Pre Changes

    In the graph above highlighting the NFL calibration before the changes, there is a distinct gap in expected scoring and actual scoring on average in the 4th quarter in all 3 scoring margin buckets. The model underpredicts scoring when a team is losing (as those teams are often hurrying to catch up), and overpredicts scoring when a team is winning and tied (as those teams are often slowing things down), but tied is a much lesser degree. At the end of the first half, there is a slight deviation inside 4 minutes, but not nearly as severe as the end of the game.

    CFB Model Calibration – Pre Changes

    From a college perspective, the model shows more deviance than the NFL. There is still an effect at the same time ranges that were previously highlighted, but there are bigger gaps in the winning and losing phases. The larger gaps in the college model might be attributed to larger gaps in team quality, which we are not addressing in this model. For the purpose of this re-work, the time and lead theories still apply here.

    After reviewing this data, we concluded that both end of half situations combined with the lead type at the end of the game factor into a pace of play component that has an effect on expected scoring in a game, and that pace takes effect at the end of the first half and in the 4th quarter.

    This is not to be confused with the rating of the teams with the lead component, which we did not want to build into the Expected Points model. This model is centered around the state of the game, factoring in average outcomes against the level at which teams are playing (NFL or college). A model that incorporates team rating is more complex and something that we did not want to attempt at this time. The general trend of “good teams are winning more” is reversed once the lack of time to score comes into play. This specific state of the game factor is what we are trying to account for.

    If we did incorporate team ratings, this would help the college model more given the larger gaps in winning and losing.

    The New Model

    To factor in pace, three new features were created for the model. These new features are described as follows:

    1. Quarter Grouping:
      1. 10 minutes and under to go in the 4th quarter
      2. 2 minutes and under to go in the 2nd quarter
      3. All other time situations
    2. Time Left in the Quarter in Minutes:
      1. Counting down from 10 by 2s (10,8,6,4,2) for the 4th quarter and only a 2 for the 2 minute mark and under in the 2nd quarter 
      2. All other times are labeled as a 15 to be the catch all
    3. Offensive Team Lead Grouping:
      1. Losing (<10 minutes left in the 4th quarter)
      2. Winning (<10 minutes left in the 4th quarter)
      3. Tied (<10 minutes left in the 4th quarter)
      4. All other cases (>10 minutes left in the 4th quarter)

    The time features were engineered this way strictly to look at the specific time periods under consideration. This is a proxy for the pace of play at the end of halves where a team may operate differently when under a time crunch and if they are winning or losing. The goal isn’t to try and find the difference in play at all times of the game, which is why the time groupings were created instead to only capture the times when the game context imposes a pace on a team.

    NFL Model Calibration – Post Changes

    CFB Model Calibration – Post Changes

    The calibrations are now more aligned at the end of halves and follow the pattern of actual scoring. The college model still sees larger disparities in the winning and losing phases with over-predicting scoring when losing and under-predicting scoring when winning. However, the end of game situations are much better. The NFL model adjusted smoothly to the actual results at the end of halves as well, especially in higher expected scoring environments when a team is losing.

    The goal of improving our models incorporating pace at the end of halves given the lead situation has been met here. The calibration to actual scoring on average has improved in both NFL and college. With this improvement at the base level of evaluation, we can now assess EPA metrics more accurately when it comes to teams as well as our Total Points metric to evaluate players.

  • Who would have won NFL Protector of the Year in 2024?

    Who would have won NFL Protector of the Year in 2024?

    Photo: Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire

    When talking about the NFL’s biggest superstars, it’s almost always quarterbacks and skill players that are in the discussion. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, and others are frequently brought up, as they should be, but they also overshadow other great players. With the NFL’s introduction of the Protector of the Year award, one of the league’s most underappreciated position groups will be getting more of the spotlight.

    Advocates, Panel, and Criteria

    There are a few people who deserve special recognition for creating an award that honors offensive linemen. Troy Vincent, the NFL’s executive vice president of football operations said Dion Dawkins and Andrew Whitworth were “truly instrumental” in putting things into motion.

    Whitworth was a Super Bowl champion, Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year, multi-time All-Pro and Pro Bowler, and had two of the best seasons for left tackles in terms of Blocking Total Points since we began charting in 2016. His 2021 season (41 Total Points) ranks 1st since then, while his 2019 season (40 Total Points) ranks 3rd.

    Whitworth will be on the voting panel for the Protector of the Year, alongside Jason Kelce, Orlando Pace, Will Shields, Shaun O’Hara, and LeCharles Bentley. Kelce’s 2022 season was legendary by SIS standards. He recorded 49 Blocking Total Points, which is our highest single-season total, regardless of position.

    The criteria that these NFL legends will use to vote includes “skills, metrics, impact, leadership, durability, and strength of opponent.” It will be especially interesting to see how they measure positional impact, given that they have more former interior offensive linemen (Kelce, Shields, O’Hara, Bentley) than tackles (Whitworth, Pace) on the panel.

    Dion Dawkins, who heavily advocated for the award to be created, is coming off a terrific season himself. He ranked 4th among all offensive linemen in Total Points (38) last season but was first for left tackles specifically. Josh Allen’s blind-side protector is coming off his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl season, and he was also on the 2024 SIS NFL All-Pro Second Team.

    How SIS Evaluates Offensive Linemen

    SIS has tracked every NFL play from every game since 2015, which allows us to capture a wide variety of data points for every position. For offensive linemen, we chart everything from simple stats (games played, holds, false starts, pass/run blocking snaps) and that, along with play results, allows us to calculate more advanced data (blown block percentage, Total Points, stats when run behind, etc.).

    Our most useful statistic is Total Points, which is essentially an all-encompassing data point.  Using Total Points, we can easily compare different players to see who was worth more over the course of a season.

    For offensive lineman, we can look at how many Blocking Total Points a player has earned overall, or we can break it down into run plays or pass plays. In the run game, most of the evaluation comes from yards-before-contact performance above expectation, giving the most responsibility to the blockers at the point of attack. In the pass game, the ability to sustain blocks given the depth of the quarterback’s drop is key. In both cases we leverage our blown block charting heavily, because blown blocks are drive-killers.

    The panel is going to use a number of different factors to determine the winner of the Protector of the Year award. Total Points is well-suited to measuring two of these in particular, metrics and durability.

    Who Would Have Won in 2024?

    The first Protector of the Year is still a few months away, but luckily, we have Total Points data that goes all the way back to 2016. If we take a look at last year specifically, we can make an educated guess on who might have won in 2024.

    Here are the top 10 offensive linemen from last season in terms of Total Points, along with their position, team, and blown block percentage:

    Player Position Team Total Points Blown Block %
    Landon Dickerson LG Eagles 40 1.2%
    Hjalte Froholdt C Cardinals 40 1.2%
    Kevin Zeitler RG Lions 39 1.1%
    Dion Dawkins LT Bills 38 2.1%
    Brian O’Neill RT Vikings 38 1.9%
    Quinn Meinerz RG Broncos 37 1.6%
    Jake Brendel C 49ers 37 1.4%
    Joel Bitonio LG Browns 37 2.2%
    Aaron Brewer C Dolphins 36 1.6%
    Tristan Wirfs LT Buccaneers 35 1.7%

    As you can see, Landon Dickerson and Hjalte Froholdt were our top-rated offensive lineman from 2024. Dickerson gets the slight edge due to rounding his Total Points down to 40, while Froholdt rounded up. Either way, both players rank within the top 25 of single-season Total Points earners since 2016.

    Joel Bitonio was the top pass blocker (26 Total Points), while Dickerson was the top run blocker (26 Total Points).

    Kevin Zeitler had the lowest blown block percentage from this list at 1.1%, with just 11 total on the year. Erik McCoy only had 1 blown block on the season (0.4% blown block percentage), but only played 276 snaps compared to Zeitler’s 1,007. Given that the panelists want to reward durability, McCoy wouldn’t have qualified.

    For some perspective, Patriots’ right tackle Demontrey Jacobs was one of the worst performers in this category. He led the NFL with 53 blown blocks (6.6% blown block percentage), despite playing in 15 of 17 games.

    Falcons C Drew Dalman was the leader in Total Points per game (2.7), but he only played 525 snaps. Dickerson and Dawkins both played at least 897 snaps and had the same Total Points per game (2.6).

    Since we already have the data, our staff went ahead and voted on a 2024 Protector of the Year:

    Staff Picks

    Name 2024 Protector of the Year Pick
    Anthony Haage Landon Dickerson
    Jordan Edwards Landon Dickerson
    Conner Hrabal Hjalte Froholdt
    Jeremy Percy Dion Dawkins
    Jeff Dean Landon Dickerson
    Nathan Cooper Landon Dickerson

    Dickerson got 4 of the 6 votes from our football operations crew, which rewarded him for outstanding run blocking for a Super Bowl winner.

    Who Will Win the First Ever Protector of the Year?

    Looking ahead to 2025, our staff have made their predictions for the first ever Protector of the Year. Six voters picked five different players, so it’s fair to say the race is wide open.

    Staff Picks

    Name 2025 Protector of the Year Prediction
    Anthony Haage Dion Dawkins
    Jordan Edwards Tristan Wirfs
    Conner Hrabal Christian Darrisaw
    Jeremy Percy Lane Johnson
    Jeff Dean Christian Darrisaw
    Nathan Cooper Penei Sewell

     

  • Reviewing Our Grades for the 2022 NFL Draft Class

    Reviewing Our Grades for the 2022 NFL Draft Class

    Photo: Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire

    Introduction

    While many crave all the NFL Draft Team Grades that publications put out the day after the draft, including us on both accounts, there are a lot of unknowns at that point. Of course, we all have our own NFL Draft prospect rankings heading into that weekend, but those players have yet to play a snap in the NFL. So, how can we really grade a team’s draft class if those players haven’t yet stepped onto an NFL field?

    It usually takes at least three years to see how well a draft class turned out. While said publications, including us, don’t want to wait three years before putting out their grades on a draft class, we do both. This is the time that teams must decide on 5th-year options for their 1st-round picks. Additionally, this gives these players a rookie season and two full years after that to get settled in and playing time under their belt.

    Three years ago, Sports Info Solutions published our very first NFL Draft website. After three years in book form, we moved our reports, articles, stats, leaderboards, and team pages onto the web for the first time. After the 2022 NFL Draft, we, just as many others, posted our NFL Draft Team Grades, which can be seen here. It’s worth noting we don’t give out letter grades like most. We rank the teams from 1 to 32 in terms of how much talent they got as an entire class based on our pre-draft player grades.

    Just as I did last year, in the article you can see here, I’ve developed a system to evaluate the draft classes using Total Points relative to position as the foundation. Three seasons have now gone by since the 2022 NFL Draft. So, let’s use that to truly see how each team did with getting value from its selections and draft class as a whole.

    Our TLDR Top Things to Know

    1. We ranked the Jets No. 1 in our 2022 post-draft ranking. Three years later, the Seahawks rank No. 1 according to our stat for assessing it, Total Points Score (TP Score), followed by the Jets, Cowboys, Lions, and Packers.
    2. The Dolphins ranked last both in our original rankings in 2022 and in TP Score three years later.
    3. The Seahawks, Packers, and Chiefs accrued the most raw Total Points from their draft classes.
    4. Brock Purdy, Kerby Joseph, and Kyle Hamilton were top 3 in Total Points across the past three seasons.

    How much value did teams get?

    Let’s take a look at how we ranked teams after the 2022 NFL Draft and then who got the most and least value. See the Appendix at the bottom to see how all 32 teams ranked in our 2022 rankings and in TP Score.

    Here are the teams we ranked at the top immediately following the draft back in 2022. To see our scouting grading scale, check out our NFL Draft site.

    Top 5 Teams in 2022 Post-Draft Rankings
    Team Book Rank Grade
    Jets 1 6.53
    Eagles 2 6.46
    Lions 3 6.45
    Ravens 4 6.43
    Panthers 5 6.40

    TP Score will be defined below, but here are the top 5 teams based on how much value they received from their draft class.

    Top 5 Teams in TP Score
    Team TP Rank TP Score
    Seahawks 1 76.67
    Jets 2 75.43
    Cowboys 3 66.96
    Lions 4 66.00
    Packers 5 64.54

    In our post-draft rankings in 2022, we tabbed the Jets as the No. 1 draft class, and they just got edged out by the Seahawks for No. 1 three years later. The Jets drafted the two Rookies of the Year in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, not to mention adding Jermaine Johnson, all in the 1st round.

    While we felt the Seahawks drafted a strong class post-draft, we ranked them 7th, we were a little low on Riq Woolen (6.4) and Abraham Lucas (6.3) compared to how they performed. Not only did the Seahawks accumulate the best TP Score, they also had the most raw Total Points among the class with 414.

    Seattle Seahawks
    Player College Grade Total Points 2022-2024
    OT Charles Cross Mississippi State 6.9 67
    ED Boye Mafe Minnesota 6.6 73
    RB Kenneth Walker III Michigan State 6.6 79
    OT Abraham Lucas Washington State 6.3 45
    CB Coby Bryant Cincinnati 6.7 45
    CB Riq Woolen UTSA 6.4 97
    ED Tyreke Smith Ohio State 5.9 0
    WR Bo Melton Rutgers 5.9 6
    WR Dareke Young Lenoir-Rhyne 5.8 2

    We also had the Lions in our top 5, and they ended up there again three years later. Despite a midseason injury in 2024, Aidan Hutchinson has been dominant and has only continued to improve each year he’s been in the league. Additionally, drafting Kerby Joseph in the 3rd round was arguably one of the biggest steals of the draft. His 136 Total Points over the past three seasons was 2nd-most overall and most among all non-QBs. It’s easy to see how the Lions are up here after drafting two players who were top 5 in Total Points.

    As for the Cowboys, we were high on Tyler Smith (SIS No. 5 OT), Damone Clark (SIS No. 2 MLB), and Jalen Tolbert (SIS No. 16 WR), as all received 6.4 or above grades from us, but Sam Williams (33 TP), Jake Ferguson (51 TP), DaRon Bland (91 TP), and John Ridgeway (20 TP) were also above-average players and big-time contributors who we had graded as backups.

    The Packers rounded out the top 5 in TP Score with the 2nd-most raw Total Points (411). We ranked them 12th immediately following the 2022 Draft, having given 6 of their 11 picks a 6.3 grade or better. However, we were a little lower on Romeo Doubs (SIS No. 32 WR) and Zach Tom (SIS No. 16 OT), who combined for 97 Total Points.

    Conversely, here are the bottom 5 teams from our 2022 rankings.

    Bottom 5 Teams in 2022 Post-Draft Rankings
    Team Book Rank Grade
    49ers 28 5.98
    Buccaneers 29 5.94
    Colts 30 5.90
    Rams 31 5.86
    Dolphins 32 5.80

    Based on TP Score, here are the worst teams in terms of getting value from their 2021 draft picks.

    Bottom 5 Teams in TP Score
    Team TP Rank TP Score
    Rams 28 23.13
    Panthers 29 19.44
    Raiders 30 14.97
    Vikings 31 13.97
    Dolphins 32 1.50

    The big bullseye here was the Dolphins. We were very low on their draft class initially, and they haven’t done anything to disprove that. Even though they had only four picks in the draft, and none until late in Round 3, only one of them was one we had graded above a 5.8. We graded Channing Tindall a 6.6, but he has only accumulated 1 Total Point in the past three seasons, as he’s hardly played any defense and mainly been a special teams player. Erik Ezukanma was our top 5.8 receiver (SIS No. 36 WR) and has only 2 Total Points. Their other two picks we didn’t have on the site and have combined for 3 Total Points. So, the grand total for Miami’s draft class was 6 Total Points.

    While we ranked the Rams (31st) low initially, we were a little off on the Raiders (17th) and Vikings (19th) and completely missed on the Panthers (5th).

    The Panthers have gotten 100 Total Points from their six draft picks. Ikem Ekwonu (SIS No. 3 OT) and Cade Mays (SIS No. 6 OG) have been about what we expected, but they haven’t gotten much of anything from the rest of their class, especially Amare Barno (SIS No. 14 ED), who only has 8 Total Points despite our 6.5 starting grade.

    Determining Total Points Score

    In case you missed previous articles, let’s explain the process of creating each team’s TP Score. When looking back to see how good or bad a specific draft class was, there are two main points to detect:

    1. How productive were the draft picks on the field?
    2. How much talent did the team draft relative to the amount of picks they made? 

    As in: Did they hit on one player or did they hit on multiple players?

    To determine the value of the draft classes, I used Total Points, our flagship player value stat, from across the last three seasons. However, for those of you who are familiar with Total Points, it gives a lot of extra weight to quarterbacks. With that said, Brock Purdy alone would have had the 17th-best draft class with his 195 Total Points if we just used raw Total Points.

    While there is a reason we weigh quarterbacks so much more compared to other positions (they are pretty important), using that raw number in this sense isn’t going to make for a perfect match. While getting your franchise quarterback is a huge win, especially with the last pick of the draft, it doesn’t automatically give you a top class. This year, San Francisco ended up 18th in TP Score, and I think most would agree they had an average-at-best class aside from Purdy.

    Answering question 2 takes into account how well a team drafted throughout the entirety of the draft class. I found the average Total Points per player from the 2022 class at each position, including UDFAs who have taken at least one offensive or defensive snap, since they were also available to be selected.

    The positional averages are shown in the table below.

    Pos TP per Player
    QB 36.4
    RB 12.3
    WR 12.1
    TE 15.3
    OL 27.1
    DE 22.1
    DT 7.1
    LB 17.6
    CB 35.9
    S 29.3

    The TP Score, as referenced earlier, is what’s used to rank the teams. It is calculated as follows:

    1. Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
    2. Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
    3. Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
    4. Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick

    In these 4 steps, we are essentially answering how productive the draft class was and how many picks were “hits”. Let’s run through an example using our No. 2 team, the New York Jets.

    Here is their draft class:

    Pos Player Total Points
    CB Sauce Gardner 112
    WR Garrett Wilson 53
    DE Jermaine Johnson 45
    RB Breece Hall 41
    TE Jeremy Ruckert 10
    OL Max Mitchell 17
    DE Micheal Clemons 30

     

    Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class

    308

    Divide that number by the number of selections the team had

    308 Total Points divided by 7 selections equals 44.00

    Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position

    Gardner, Wilson, Johnson, Hall, and Clemons all accumulated a Total Points number that was above average compared to their position groups

    44.00 times 71.4% (5 out of 7) equals 31.43

    Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick

    44.00 plus 31.43 equals 75.43, which is their TP Score

    So, to summarize, we took the team’s Total Points gained from these players, dispersed it throughout the entire class and then gave a bump based on how many above-average players they drafted.

    Now that we know how the teams ranked and how the TP Score is calculated, let’s dive into some of the other details.

    Other Key Takeaways

    – The Cowboys and Eagles hit on at least 75% of their picks in 2022. Dallas hit on 7 of 9 picks, while Philadelphia hit on 4 of 5. Interestingly enough, none of the three players who weren’t hits among the teams accumulated any Total Points. Additionally, the Packers, Giants, and Jets get shoutouts for being just under 75%. The Packers and Giants hit on 8 of their 11 picks, while the Jets hit on 5 of their 7.

    – The Packers and Giants having eight hits were the most of any team. The Packers ranked 5th in TP Score and the Giants ranked 11th. Both were top 7 in raw Total Points. Of Green Bay’s eight hits, all but 1 had more than 32 Total Points, suggesting massive contribution from their draft class. Funny enough, the same can almost be said for the Giants, as only one hit was under 31 Total Points. The kicker in the difference between these two teams is that the Packers had four players with 56+ Total Points, while the Giants only had two.

    – The Dolphins were the only team to not draft at least one player who has played above the positional average compared to the rest of the draft class. Additionally, the Vikings drafted only 1 in their 10 picks and the Raiders had just 1 in their 6 selections. Furthermore, in addition to Miami (Channing Tindall) and Buffalo (Kaiir Elam), the Vikings (Lewis Cine), 49ers (Drake Jackson), Rams (Logan Bruss), and Titans (Treylon Burks) were the only teams whose first draft selection wasn’t an above-average player. This is now the third year in a row that’s been the case for Tennessee and Los Angeles.

    – The three teams with the most raw Total Points are the Seahawks (414), Packers (411), and Chiefs (408). It’s funny how things change, as Seattle accumulated the least amount of Total Points with their 2021 class. Green Bay and Kansas City ranked 5th and 6th, respectively. We detailed Seattle and Green Bay already, so for the Chiefs, they hit a huge home run with Trent McDuffie (SIS No. 3 CB), in addition to getting huge contributions from George Karlaftis (SIS No. 4 ED), Bryan Cook (SIS No. 7 S), Leo Chenal (SIS No. 3 MLB), and Jaylen Watson (SIS No. 41 CB). That’s not to mention Joshua Williams (SIS No. 28 CB), whose 34 Total Points actually just missed the average in a deep cornerback class.

    – The Dolphins (6), Raiders (77), and Panthers (100) totaled the least amount of Total Points from their draft class. For Las Vegas, it received 73 of their 77 Total Points from Dylan Parham (SIS No. 4 OG), their first selection. Thayer Munford (SIS No. 9 OG) did get 21 Total Points, but Zamir White (SIS No. 5 RB) has been a huge disappointment, accumulating -19 Total Points during his time.

    – Of the 18 players whose options were picked up, minus Derek Stingley Jr. since he received an extension, the only two who didn’t rank in the top 8 of their position group among the class were Ikem Ekwonu, whose 65 Total Points placed him 10th among offensive linemen, and Daxton Hill, whose 44 Total Points placed him 11th among safeties.

    How do our Initial Grades Compare?

    75% (24/32) of our initial ranks were in the correct half, meaning a team we ranked between 1 and 16 or 17 and 32 was ultimately in that tier, which is a huge success compared to last season and our best percentage ever. Not only did we get three direct hits, 12 teams were within three spots and 24 teams were only a single-digit difference from post-draft to now.

    The biggest differences in our initial grades and these final rankings were the Panthers (24 spots), Cowboys (17 spots) and Colts (17 spots). While we were way too high on Carolina post-draft, as previously mentioned, we were far too low on Dallas and Indianapolis. We had the Cowboys 20th post-draft and they ended up 3rd, whereas the Colts were initially ranked 30th and ended up 13th.

    For Indianapolis, Bernard Raimann (SIS No. 6 OT) and Alec Pierce (SIS No. 12 WR) were the only players we graded above a 5.9. We missed on including Rodney Thomas II and Drew Ogletree on the site at all, as they combined for 73 Total Points. Additionally, we graded Nick Cross (SIS No. 19 S) as a 5.8 backup, but he’s accumulated 59 Total Points himself.

    Some other players we unfortunately omitted from the site were Christian Benford, Kader Kohou, and Tony Adams. Benford’s 93 Total Points is tied for 6th-most among CBs in big-time CB class and not too far outside the top 10 overall. Kohou and Adams each have accumulated 90 and 64 Total Points, respectively.

    What were some of our biggest misses elsewhere? Brock Purdy is one of the biggest names in the class. While he’s a bit of an anomaly as the last selection in the draft, we graded him as a 5.8 and the 10-best QB in the class, yet he led all 2022 draftees in Total Points. Additionally, Martin Emerson Jr. was our 37th-ranked CB, but his 103 Total Points put him in the top 10.

    Let’s take a look at some of our biggest wins.

    Four of our top 5 safeties going into the draft ended up top 5 in Total Points at the position, with only Daxton Hill (SIS No. 3 S) missing out and Reed Blankenship (SIS No. 28 S) in his place. Additionally, Rasheed Walker (SIS No. 7 OT), who was drafted in the 7th round, has accumulated 56 Total Points for the Packers which is 13th-best among all OL.

    Tyquan Thornton was our 27th-ranked WR and was drafted in the 2nd round, but has only 12 Total Points in 28 games. Velus Jones Jr. (SIS No. 25 WR) was drafted in the 3rd round and has just 3 Total Points in 29 games. JT Woods, our 30th-ranked safety, was also drafted in the 3rd round and has only accumulated 1 Total Point in 13 games. Finally, Montrell Washington, who was the first non-ST player drafted that we didn’t get a formal look on, was drafted in the 5th round and has just 1 Total Point in 22 games, primarily as a returner on special teams.

    The table below shows the top Total Points earners across the past three seasons from the draft class and how we graded and ranked them on our site pre-draft.

    Rank Position Player Total Points SIS Grade SIS Pos Rank
    1 QB Brock Purdy 195 5.8 10
    2 S Kerby Joseph 136 6.7 5
    3 S Kyle Hamilton 120 7.0 1
    4 DE Aidan Hutchinson 116 7.0 1 (ED)
    5 CB Derek Stingley Jr. 115 6.9 1
    6 CB Trent McDuffie 113 6.8 3
    7 CB Sauce Gardner 112 6.8 2
    8 CB Martin Emerson Jr. 103 5.8 37
    9 C Tyler Linderbaum 97 6.8 1
    10 CB Riq Woolen 97 6.4 14

    As mentioned before, we were a bit low on Purdy, Emerson, and Woolen. However, the other seven were in our top 5 at the position, including our top 3 cornerbacks. It’s easy to see why the Lions and Ravens ranked so high in TP Score and in our post-draft rankings, as each has two players on this list. That’s not to mention each of our top 2 in TP Score, the Seahawks and Jets, having a player here as well.

    Conclusion

    Nobody really knows how a draft class is going to turn out immediately after the draft, yet it still makes sense to grade and/or rank the teams based on player grades for an initial reaction. 

    Post-draft grades are great in a sense, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Once three years go by and we’ve seen what these players have done in the NFL, we can get a better sense of how good the team drafted.

    These rankings are all about finding which teams drafted the best draft class as a whole, not just who got the best player. While there are some players who didn’t play for the team that drafted them for the entirety of the past three seasons, that wasn’t taken into account since those decisions came after the initial drafting of these players, which is what this is based on. 

    An example of that from this class is Jack Jones. He was drafted by the Patriots and has 93 Total Points, but played only 18 games and 575 snaps for them across 2022 and part of 2023 before playing 24 games and nearly 1,400 snaps across the past season and a half for the Raiders, where he had five interceptions and three pick-sixes.

    It’s not a perfect science, but it does a good job at pulling player value and seeing how well teams drafted as a whole class relative to the amount of selections they were afforded.

    Three years later, the comparison between our initial rankings and these rankings are the best they’ve ever been (in both our grading and our scouting process). Considering this was the first year of our new website, we were afforded more time during the draft process. Previously, the Handbook was completed by the end of January, so we didn’t have the luxury of factoring in Combine or Pro Day results. Having a website allowed us to also spend February, March, and April finalizing these reports and grades and using all the data available up to the draft to be sure they were the best they could be. With that extra time, we were able to add 92 more players to the site for a total of 410 compared to just 318 in 2021. That also allowed us to get 8 more players featured on the site who were drafted.

    We hope this article next year continues to show the growth we made in Year 2 of our website and Year 5 overall. As with everything we do here, we hope this improves year over year and can look back and say we kept getting better every day.

    Appendix

    2022 SIS Post-Draft Rankings based on the SIS NFL Draft site

    Team Site Rank Grade
    1 Jets 6.53
    2 Eagles 6.46
    3 Lions 6.45
    4 Ravens 6.43
    5 Panthers 6.40
    6 Texans 6.38
    7 Seahawks 6.34
    8 Falcons 6.30
    9 Jaguars 6.30
    10 Saints 6.30
    11 Giants 6.28
    12 Packers 6.27
    13 Chiefs 6.27
    14 Bengals 6.23
    15 Commanders 6.19
    16 Titans 6.17
    17 Raiders 6.15
    18 Patriots 6.14
    19 Vikings 6.10
    20 Cowboys 6.10
    21 Browns 6.09
    22 Cardinals 6.08
    23 Bears 6.05
    24 Bills 6.04
    25 Broncos 6.02
    26 Steelers 6.01
    27 Chargers 6.00
    28 49ers 5.98
    29 Buccaneers 5.94
    30 Colts 5.90
    31 Rams 5.86
    32 Dolphins 5.80

    TP Rank based on TP Score and how much value each team got from their draft picks over the last three seasons

    Team TP Rank TP Score
    Seahawks 1 76.67
    Jets 2 75.43
    Cowboys 3 66.96
    Lions 4 66.00
    Packers 5 64.54
    Chiefs 6 61.20
    Ravens 7 54.37
    Eagles 8 54.00
    Bills 9 53.81
    Saints 10 53.44
    Giants 11 50.88
    Jaguars 12 49.80
    Colts 13 48.14
    Buccaneers 14 45.38
    Texans 15 42.05
    Bengals 16 41.75
    Falcons 17 41.06
    49ers 18 39.52
    Steelers 19 36.73
    Chargers 20 32.83
    Bears 21 28.69
    Commanders 22 26.06
    Cardinals 23 25.71
    Titans 24 25.63
    Patriots 25 24.18
    Browns 26 24.15
    Broncos 27 23.26
    Rams 28 23.13
    Panthers 29 19.44
    Raiders 30 14.97
    Vikings 31 13.97
    Dolphins 32 1.50

     

  • Which Teams Had The Best Draft Classes: 2019-2022?

    Which Teams Had The Best Draft Classes: 2019-2022?

    Photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

    Overall Total Points Score Rankings from 2019-2022

    In 2019, we began the SIS Football Rookie Handbook. Every year since, we have written scouting reports and graded players for the NFL Draft. While it’s not a bad thing to grade draft classes immediately after the draft each year, it’s much more productive and accurate to wait until they’ve played for three years in the NFL. With that, we’ve now been able to grade each of the 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 draft classes’ first three seasons.

    To catch the first part of the article which lays out how the 2022 draft class did specifically, click here.

    Overall TP Score Ranks

    Now that we’re four years into this, we can begin to take a broader look across seasons. 

    – With that, the Chiefs have the highest average TP Score across the last four seasons with 64.41, over ten points higher than the Jaguars (54.08) in 2nd. The Lions, with 51.08, round out the top 3. Check out the entire list in the Appendix.

    – Conversely, the Rams are the only team with an average ranking in the bottom 6, and they also rank dead last with an average TP Score of just 23.47, though the Vikings are on their heels thanks to their  No. 31 ranking this year. Like the past three years, the Rams haven’t made a 1st-round pick in any of these seasons, so it’s likely they aren’t going to get a high-end impact player, but it’s telling that they’ve struggled to find much value in the later rounds of drafts.

    Now the real question is how do our initial rankings compare to those numbers? 

    – The Chiefs have had the highest average TP Score in four years, but we’ve given them the 3rd-worst cumulative ranking post-draft. Omitting L’Jarius Snead in 2020 played into that, and that’s clearly the biggest miss on our part. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve been able to take players who fit their scheme perfectly and make them work when those same players may not fit elsewhere.

    – Additionally, our average top 10 post-draft teams who also have an average TP Score rank in the top 10 include the Jaguars, Lions, and Bengals. Conversely, matches in the bottom 10 include Steelers, Vikings, and Rams. Teams we match in the middle 12 include the Cowboys, Bills, Dolphins, Packers, Commanders, and Titans.

    – While we’ve been way too low on the Chiefs post-draft each year, conversely, we’ve been way too high on the Panthers. We’ve averaged giving them the 3rd-best (tied) class across the four seasons immediately after the draft, but they have just the 29th-best TP Score. Aside from ranking 5th in 2020, they’ve ranked exactly 29th the other three years. Panthers fans hope Bryce Young and team can improve their ranking next season.

    How do we compare to the consensus?

    Rene Bugner, @RNBWCV on X, puts out a consensus report card based on many of the post-draft grades each year to find a consensus ranking of the teams. His post for the 2022 draft class grades can be found here. Using this, we can determine how our post-draft rankings compared to the consensus three years later based on TP Score.

    If we compare ourselves against the consensus for the 2022 draft class, we were closer on 15 of the teams, the consensus was closer on 11, and both either had the same consensus ranking or tied in terms of differential for the remaining six teams.

    Our post-draft ranking agreed with the consensus for the Jets (No. 1), Browns (No. 21), 49ers (No. 28), and Rams (No. 31).

    Some of our biggest misses, as referenced in the other article, were the Panthers, Colts, and Cowboys.

    The consensus felt the Panthers would be middle of the pack (No. 15), which was much closer to their No. 29 ranking than our No. 5.

    The Colts ranked No. 12 by the consensus and finished No. 13, much closer than us at No. 30.

    Finally, while the Cowboys had the 3rd-best TP Score, we ranked them No. 20 and consensus felt they were No. 24.

    The biggest wins for us compared to the consensus were the Saints, Jaguars, and Titans.

    The consensus felt New Orleans had the 25th-best class, but we hit them exactly at No. 10.

    The Jaguars finished No. 12 in TP Score, and we had them No. 9 against the consensus at No. 22.

    Finally, the Titans finished ranked 24th in TP Score, and we had them ranked No. 16 while the consensus felt they had the No. 7 class.

    While our grades and rankings are far from perfect, they have stacked up well against the consensus. Considering ties count as a half-point, only one year have we not equaled or bettered the consensus, and that was our first season in 2019 (48%). We were closer on 59% of teams in 2020, we tied the consensus in 2021 at 50%, and we were at 56% in 2022.

    If you want to see each individual year’s article, you can find 2019 here, 2020 here, 2021 here, and 2022 here.

    Our scouting and grading process is much different than most non-NFL team evaluators out there, and one could argue that TP Score isn’t a sufficient means for grading the classes, but we’ll stack our numbers up against any of them.

    Appendix

    Average TP Score and ranking across all four seasons (the 2019-2022 draft classes each after their first three seasons in 2021-2024)

    Team Avg TP Rank Avg TP Score
    Chiefs 1 64.41
    Jaguars 2 54.08
    Lions 3 51.08
    Saints 4 47.90
    49ers 5 47.10
    Chargers 6 46.86
    Broncos 7 46.70
    Bengals 8 45.45
    Jets 9 45.21
    Buccaneers 10 44.70
    Cowboys 11 44.32
    Bears 12 43.76
    Bills 13 43.47
    Dolphins 14 41.13
    Packers 15 40.87
    Seahawks 16 40.81
    Commanders 17 39.50
    Falcons 18 38.59
    Titans 19 38.52
    Ravens 20 36.95
    Colts 21 36.49
    Cardinals 22 36.37
    Steelers 23 36.14
    Eagles 24 36.11
    Giants 25 35.85
    Texans 26 35.84
    Browns 27 35.77
    Raiders 28 35.46
    Panthers 29 28.15
    Patriots 30 27.90
    Vikings 31 23.55
    Rams 32 23.47

     

  • How Does Donovan Jackson Fit With the Minnesota Vikings?

    How Does Donovan Jackson Fit With the Minnesota Vikings?

    Photo: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire

    The Minnesota Vikings came into the 2025 NFL Draft with major needs at defensive back and offensive line. Many mock drafters, including ourselves, had Minnesota taking a safety to provide a spark for their secondary. However, Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had other ideas.

    The Vikings selected left guard Donovan Jackson with their first pick to reinforce their offensive line for years to come. Jackson had a 6.7 grade on our draft site, which ranks at the top of our positional ranking next to Alabama guard Tyler Booker. He was number one in FBS for Total Points among ALL offensive linemen last season, regardless of position. The Vikings hope he can come in and start straight away, continuing his reign of terror against his opponents.

    Here is a look at Jackson and how he can contribute in Minnesota immediately:

    Jackson’s Strengths And Weaknesses

     Donovan Jackson measures out at 6’4’’ 315 pounds, which is sufficient for the left guard position. He started 40 games at Ohio State, with 9 of those starts coming at left tackle. He has some flexibility to play both sides and positions, but will do his best work from the interior.

    Jackson possesses good play strength and drive ability that allows him to move defenders on the run. He isn’t a dominant finisher, but he can certainly create run lanes. He uses his lower half well to stay balanced through contact and can recover quickly by using his fluid hips to stay upright in uncomfortable positions. He also has the mobility to combo-block up to the second level.

    In pass protection, he can anchor well against bigger defenders to give the quarterback enough space to do his work. However, he will occasionally lose leverage by keeping his hands too wide on the shoulder pads, which leaves him vulnerable to blown blocks and holding penalties in the NFL. He will need to clean that up before his rookie season or else teams will quickly learn to exploit it.

    With good coaching, Jackson has all of the tools necessary to succeed at the left guard position. There are no physical limitations for him. He will be tested early, but he should adapt to NFL competition relatively quickly.

    Minnesota Team Needs

     Last year, Minnesota’s offensive line went through a lot over the course of the season. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw went down with a torn ACL and MCL in Week 8, knocking him out for the remainder of the year. The interior offensive linemen, while mostly healthy, performed poorly

    Center Garrett Bradbury, who has since been released, led ALL interior linemen in blown blocks.

    Player Team Position Blown Blocks
    Garrett Bradbury Vikings C 43
    Alex Cappa Bengals RG 40
    Dominick Puni 49ers RG 33
    Liam Eichenberg Dolphins RG 32
    Cordell Volson Bengals LG 32

    Left guard Blake Brandel was not far behind, ranking 9th among interior offensive linemen in blown blocks with 30. If you combine Ed Ingram and Dalton Risner, who started 9 and 8 games at RG, respectively, they had a total of 33 blown blocks.

    Minnesota desperately needed some new blood in its offensive line room. This offseason, the Vikings have replaced their entire interior. Former Colts center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries will come in and immediately inject some stability. They both missed substantial time due to injury last year, however they were much more effective (only 12 blown blocks between them) with just under a full season of snaps.

    Jackson is coming in at the perfect time. The Vikings are competitive. The offensive line room is fresh and ready to turn the page after an ugly year. JJ McCarthy is healthy. Minnesota’s 2025 season outlook looks very promising entering training camp.

    How Jackson fits in Minnesota

     Minnesota primarily used a zone rushing scheme last season (72% zone, 8th highest clip in the NFL). They operated mainly out of 11 or 12 personnel formations and were the 2nd-most effective team in 12 personnel last year. Kevin O’Connell likes to mix things up pre-snap as well, using a motion on nearly 60% of plays last year (59% to be exact).

    Jackson has experience working in a zone-heavy scheme at Ohio State, which they ran at a 69% rate. He can pull when asked, however his strength is in his ability to move defenders and create running lanes. Last season, ball carriers averaged 3.7 yards before contact when running to his gap.

    At Ohio State, Jackson led ALL FBS offensive linemen in Total Points in 2024.

    Rank Player Team Position Total Points
    1 Donovan Jackson Ohio State G 49
    2 Josh Conerly Jr. Oregon T 44
    3 Brady Small Army C 42
    4 Aamil Wagner Notre Dame T 42
    5 Isaiah World Nevada T 41

    30 of those 49 Total Points came from his run blocking, which ranked 2nd among all FBS offensive linemen last year. His 19 pass blocking Total Points ranked 13th. His effectiveness is evident in both areas.

    Overall, Jackson is a well-rounded blocker who can be very effective in zone but still possesses the mobility to pull through to the 2nd level. He should plug right into the left guard spot next to new additions Ryan Kelly and Will Fries. If Darrisaw goes down again, the Vikings will have the option to use Jackson at left tackle as well.

    How Good a Fit Is He?

    The Vikings will get someone who has been a part of a winning culture before and knows what it takes to win at a high level. His solid base and mobility will make him effective in Minnesota’s zone-heavy run scheme. In pass protection, he can anchor well against bigger defenders to give JJ McCarthy time in the pocket.

    Since he played at Ohio State, Jackson is no stranger to cold weather and should be able to adapt to the frigid NFC North games at Soldier Field and Lambeau Field toward the end of the season.

    Final Word: Jackson is an excellent fit and should contribute immediately in Minnesota’s revamped offensive line room.

  • How Does Nic Scourton Fit With The Carolina Panthers?

    How Does Nic Scourton Fit With The Carolina Panthers?

    Photo: Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire

    The Panthers addressed a couple of needs on the first two days of the Draft. After selecting wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan with their first pick, they doubled down at edge rusher in the second and third rounds with Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen, respectively. We will focus on Scourton in this article as he is a great fit to fill the void in their pass rush after they traded Brian Burns to the Big Apple. 

    What He Brings

    Our scouting report describes Scourton as a big, physical, explosive EDGE who should earn a starting job early on and could develop into a high-end player if he continues his trajectory. His explosive power and expansive pass rush repertoire are certainly strengths in his game. He also possesses a hair-on-fire mentality, but this can get him in trouble with his positioning in the run game. He has all the tools to be a reliable run defender on the edge if he can become more disciplined in his run fits. 

    After two productive years at Purdue including 8.5 sacks in 2023, he had a disappointing 2024 season at Texas A&M where his numbers fell in a new scheme and conference. The table below highlights these differences: 

    Nic Scourton – Last 2 Seasons

    2023 2024
    Sacks 8.5 5
    Pressures 40 27
    Pressure Percentage 18% 10%
    Pass Rush Total Points 21 10

    Despite a disappointing 2024 season, Scourton’s production in 2023 at Purdue gives us reason to believe that the Panthers can develop him at the next level. He is not just a pass rusher as he earned 18 and 12 Total Points against the run the past two seasons (click the link to learn more about Total Points, our all-encompassing player value stat). His ability to play the pass and run should earn him a starting role early on, as the Panthers desperately need talent off the edge. 

    The Need He Fills

    The Panthers pass rush was non-existent last season after the departure of Brian Burns and an early season injury to star DT Derrick Brown. The table below highlights the struggles of the Panthers pass rush last season: 

    Carolina Panthers

    2024 League Rank
    Sacks 32  T-29
    Pressures 153 Last
    Pressure Percentage 26% Last
    Pass Rush Total Points 21 Last

    It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. The Panthers need their young additions to inject some life into their pass rush. To be fair to last year’s group, it wasn’t pretty the year before either with Burns and Brown, as the team ranked last in 2023 with 27 sacks. 

    How Scourton Fits What Carolina Does

    Scourton played in college around 280 pounds before weighing in at the combine at 255. Our scouting report mentioned body composition work to help improve functional strength. It doesn’t seem like this was just for combine testing either as the Panthers roster lists him at 257 pounds. The weight loss should prepare him well for his new role with the Panthers as a stand-up EDGE. 

    Panthers EDGEs primarily play in a 2-point stance instead of putting their hand in the dirt. The aforementioned weight loss should help as he played exclusively with his hand in the dirt at Purdue and 71% of his snaps at Texas A&M. If he can maintain his strength, the weight loss could help him unlock some speed and bend to raise an already high ceiling even higher. 

    Scourton is a perfect fit for the Panthers and great value to address a need in the second round. They get a player who plays unbelievably hard and should see the field early and often while possessing a high ceiling. His drop in weight at the Combine was certainly unique, but a body transformation could unlock new parts of his game, as long as he can maintain his strength. 

    Bryce Young and the Panthers started to turn the corner at the end of last season. To build on that success and challenge Tampa Bay for the NFC South crown, they desperately need to find some pass rush success. Scourton might just be the guy to provide it.