Category: NFL

2024 AFC West Preview

Photo: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire

The kings of the AFC West have been the Kansas City Chiefs for the past 8 years. By the looks of things, it seems as if the streak will not end this year, as the Chiefs are -230 favorites to win the division again according to DraftKings. The other 3 teams, meanwhile, will all have a different head coach and starting quarterback combination from what they had at the beginning of the year last year. Not ideal.

To help break it all down, Bryce Rossler and Matt Manocherian debate what we can expect from the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and new-look Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos on the Off the Charts Football Podcast.

Here are a few takeaways from each team on what they discussed.

Can the Chiefs receiving core improve?

The defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will look to bring home a third straight Lombardi Trophy. In order to do so, there needs to be improvement from their receiving core. Last year, the Chiefs receivers had the 2nd-highest drop percentage at 7.8% and the 10th-lowest on-target catch percentage at 88.4%.

Patrick Mahomes was able to mask the issues last year, but Bryce feels that the passing game will hinge on the Chiefs pass catchers this season.

“The Chiefs’ offense is a powerhouse, but without a reliable receiving core, Mahomes might struggle to maintain his usual high level of play. We need to see some young players step up this season.”

Matt agrees, but believes that it’s not about plugging in bigger names, as he states:

“It’s not just about having big names; it’s about how they fit into the system. The Chiefs have to ensure that their receivers can create separation and make big plays down the field.”

Even with the poor showing by the receivers, the Chiefs offense still ranked 8th in EPA per pass play last year and 5th in Total Points per play. If the pass catchers play even a fraction better than they did last season, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t go for three in a row.

Bo Nix leaves a lot to be desired in year one

It’s a new dawn in Denver, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix will try to take the reins of Sean Payton’s offensive system. Matt, who was a scout for the Saints in the Payton days, knows what it takes to succeed as a quarterback under Payton.

“The thing that was non-negotiable for him was accuracy. The ability to put the ball where it needed to go. There were quarterbacks that Payton brought in that surprised me. Players like T.J. Yates who weren’t particularly accurate in college. Bo Nix is that for me.”

Bryce, who wrote our scouting report on Nix, said

“His willingness is a problem. He leaves a lot of throws on the field past 10 yards. He makes good decisions in the quick game, but they are slow decisions. What is he doing to march the ball down the field other than the dink and dunk they did at Oregon?”

Last season, Nix had the 3rd-worst average depth of target (6.3 yards) among the 133 FBS quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. Yes, he was successful in the offense, but there wasn’t much on his end trying to push the ball down the field.

There are some decent weapons there, but everything falls back on Nix, and the guys are concerned that he won’t be able to get the job done in year one.

The Raiders pass rush will need to mask the deficiencies on the back end of the defense

Bryce and Matt highlighted the Raiders’ strong pass rush but expressed concerns about the rest of the roster. The Raiders have some standout players who can pressure the quarterback, but other areas of the team might not be as solid.

Bryce believes the Raiders pass rush as a whole is underrated. He pointed out that they were 2nd in Team Pressures Above Expectation in 2023 and have 3 players in 2024 who were in the Top 20 (Maxx Crosby 2nd, Malcolm Koonce 16th, Christian Wilkins 19th).

The pass rush is a strength going into 2024, especially if Tyree Wilson can break out in year 2. However, the pass coverage unit is going to be an issue. The Raiders coverage unit was 29th in Pass Coverage Total Points in 2023 and didn’t do much to improve it in the offseason.

Said Bryce:

“This is not a very inspiring back end. Also, the linebackers aren’t good in coverage. They are towards the bottom in Pass Coverage Total Points as well.”

The pass rush will need to be elite for the Raiders defense to be a formidable stop unit, as the rest of the defensive roster leaves a lot to be desired.

Justin Herbert will be limited with Greg Roman as his OC…or will he?

Matt and Bryce disagreed on the outlook of the Chargers offense under Greg Roman, citing how good of a fit he is for Justin Herbert.

Bryce went the negative route

“I feel bad for Justin Herbert because the offensive line is trending in the right direction and now you have nothing at receiver and you also have Greg Roman as your offensive coordinator.”

Matt disagreed and likes the perspective of Roman taking over this offense.

“I really like this for Justin Herbert. Harbaugh and Roman made Kaepernick look good back in the day. These two are capable of putting a good offense together.

I believe the right way to build an organization is with the quarterback and the guys up front. I think the Chargers are acknowledging they aren’t a Super Bowl contender this year, but they are interested in making the playoffs. They aren’t interested in having the most productive Justin Herbert, but the most efficient Justin Herbert.”

Bryce disagreed, as he believes Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson (who Roman coached) are much different quarterbacks then compared to Herbert, and he believes the Roman scheme won’t fit Herbert well.

We’ll know which one was right in a few months.

Conclusion

The SIS Betting Model has spoken when it comes to the win totals for these teams.

The model has the Chiefs at 10 wins, while the market has them at 11.5. With the injury risk and depth issues, the under is intriguing to the guys.

The Raiders are projected at 9.8 wins, well above the 6.5 line in the market. Matt buys the over because they are gonna be in close games and believes that Minshew is a quarterback that can win games.

The Chargers are projected to finish 3rd at 8.7 wins, a mere 0.2 wins higher than the line. The Broncos are projected last at 4.7, 0.8 less than the line. Generally, the guys agree with the model and see more negative outcomes for the Broncos than positive ones.

Check out the entire podcast to get a more in-depth analysis of each team.

July 19, 2024
Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC South

Photo: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire

The AFC South is going through a renaissance, as 3 out of the 4 teams have replaced their head coach and starting quarterback since the end of 2022. Every team believes it has their quarterback of the future and have made personnel upgrades at key positions in free agency and the draft.

The Texans caught everyone by surprise in 2023 in the first year of the Ryans/Stroud duo, winning both the division and a playoff game. Now as the division champs, they are no longer the young team looking to make a leap, but are now the hunted.

With a young team being chased by 3 formidable opponents, this division has all the makings of a wild and wacky race in 2024. To help bring some clarity, Bryce Rossler welcomed John Shipley of Jaguar Report SI to the Off the Charts Football Podcast to break down each team and how it will fare in 2024.

Here’s one thing the two discussed about each team and how that will impact them this season.

The Texans receiving core is really good and maximized by their scheme

Last season, the Texans had the 4th-most Receiving Total Points. Now, C.J. Stroud moves into year 2 with another top tier receiver in Stefon Diggs. With all of this talent, there is a legitimate argument the Texans can have the most prolific passing attack in the league this year.

Nico Collins returns as WR1 after posting a top 10 Receiving Total Points season last year. Collins is a big play waiting to happen, as he ranked behind only Brandon Aiyuk in Boom Percentage last year (plays with 1 EPA or greater) among players with at least 100 targets.

Two other Texans receivers, Tank Dell and Noah Brown, finished high in Boom Percentage too. The big play of these Texans receivers comes from both their talent and the scheme.

“I think their scheme impacts a lot of things. For example, the motions and play actions they did against the Jaguars last year led to two 50+ yard catches from Tank Dell where there wasn’t a DB within 10-15 yards of him because it was a complete coverage bust.”

– John Shipley

All eyes will be on the Texans offense in 2024 to see if it can replicate the success o 2023 and potentially make a deeper run into the playoffs.

Ryan Nielsen is an upgrade at defensive coordinator for the Jaguars

Ryan Nielsen takes over for Mike Caldwell to lead the Jaguars defense in 2024. Nielsen comes over from the Falcons where he improved a defense that ranked T-29th in EPA per Play in 2022 to T-7th in 2023. The pass rush doubled its sack total from one year to the next.

The Jaguars have talent in the pass rush department that is looking to take the next step as well. Josh Hines-Allen is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate (T-8th in odds at Draft Kings) and had the 4th-highest pressure rate among players with at least 300 pass rush snaps in 2023. They also added former 49ers defensive linemen Arik Armstead who is coming off a 5-sack season in only 12 games from the interior.

A big question will be whether or not Travon Walker can take the next step as a former number 1 overall pick.

John believes that he has the opportunity to be more versatile in Nielsen’s scheme.

”He is this freak athlete who you can try to get mismatches against guys across the offensive line. Now that there is a guy there who has shown he is willing to move guys around, I think that will be good for their front overall.”

– John Shipley

With the talent up front and the pedigree from a defensive coordinator to improve defenses quickly, the Jaguars defensive arrow is pointing up heading into 2024.

Colts’ athletes on offense will look to push the ball downfield

“They have some absolute freaks between Jonathan Taylor, A.D. Mitchell, and Anthony Richardson. These guys are absolute mutants.”

– John Shipley

In adding Anthony Richardson back into the fold as the signal caller, this offense will look to take advantage of Richardson’s athleticism and big arm to push the ball downfield, per Bryce.

“I think he wants to push the ball. We saw some of that when Richardson was active. With Richardson healthy, I think they will be more vertically oriented.”

– Bryce Rossler

Both of them need to see it from Richardson before anointing him as an MVP contender, but they both buy into him as a guy who can get there.

Will Levis is in for a rough time

Both Bryce and John are very low on Titans quarterback Will Levis going into this season. They see too much inconsistent play and questionable decision making, which leads them to think the Titans are in for a bad year.

“He was 24th in On-Target Rate Above Expectation among 34 quarterbacks with 200+ attempts. He was 32nd out of 41 quarterbacks in sack to pressure ratio. 33rd out of 35 in positive play rate and bust percentage. The lowlights are hilarious. I think it’s gonna be a trainwreck.”

-Bryce Rossler

“The best way I can describe Will Levis is that he plays like a Vince Vaughn movie character playing quarterback. There was one start against the Jags last year where he took a sack because he turned to hand the ball off the wrong way. I would be surprised if it ended up working out for him.”

-John Shipley

Yikes, not good. One thing going for Levis is that he can throw the ball downfield. He ranked 1st in average depth of target and was middle of the pack in boom percentage. He has the cannon arm, but he needs to limit all of the mistakes and ill-advised plays if the Titans offense is going to succeed. The addition of Calvin Ridley will provide some additional upside in a receiving group that was surprisingly above average by Total Points in 2023.

Conclusion

The SIS Betting Model sees the Texans as the division favorite with a projected 8.5 wins, but the Jaguars are close behind at 8.3. A clear dropoff ensues with the Colts at 5.8 and Titans at 4.3. A Texans repeat will be difficult with the Jaguars breathing down their necks, and if Richardson can play at that MVP level, this division can get crazy. In regards to the Titans, it might be time to pump the brakes on what this team can achieve offensively even with the weapons they added.

Check out the full breakdown of each team on the Off the Charts Football Podcast!

July 11, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: Drake Maye

Drake Maye

6-4, 223, New England Patriots QB

Overall Grade 6.8

Scouting Report by Matt Manocherian

Summary

Drake Maye is a young prospect with a tantalizing combination of size, athleticism, arm strength and accuracy to become a top NFL quarterback if and when the game slows down for him.

Maye is a right-handed quarterback in North Carolina’s no huddle, spread offense, where he is primarily utilized in short drops, RPOs and read options. UNC operates exclusively out of shotgun except in short-yardage situations. He played in 30 games in 3 seasons at UNC, including starting all 14 games in 2022 and each of their 12 regular season games in 2023 before declaring for the Draft. He is a young prospect who is still growing into his body, but he already shows good size, arm strength and athletic ability for the position. He is a tough player who was the clear leader of the offense, even as a redshirt freshman. He commands the no huddle well and can have the snap within 10 seconds at his fastest pace, including in the two minute drill against Duke to get the game to overtime. However, his inexperience shows up at times, including calling for the snap in an obviously illegal formation on the goal line in the same game.

Pass Game

Maye is a talented passer who is capable of flashes of brilliance. He has a clean, over-the-top release with a consistent, repeatable motion. He tends to pat the ball before he releases it, which complicates the fact that he is already not a quick processor. He needs to see things come open before he lets it rip, and it helps to present him with simplified half-field high/low reads. That said, he has enough arm that he can overcome his lack of anticipation with velocity. If he could get the ball out a hair sooner, several balls he completed out of bounds would likely be catches.

He is a very good deep ball thrower. He shows very good touch on deep fades and go balls that stress the defense in both Cover 1 and Cover 2. He can drive the ball downfield on a line without needing to put much air under it. He shows good ball placement on quick throws, and he is very good at making level-two throws down the seam. He shows great feel with the ability to take something off of his throws when he needs to. He can also ramp up his velocity with a clean pocket. Most of his misses come when the pocket is messy, and he can’t step into his throws. He also tends to miss when he has to work through his progressions and reset his feet.

Maye is very effective when he extends plays and gets into scramble drill situations. He keeps his eyes downfield against pressure and does a good job getting the ball out of his hands before the rush gets home. He usually throws well on the move, especially when running to his right and throwing to that side of the field, but he has also had some troubling turnovers in these situations, including a pick-six against Clemson in the 2022 ACC Championship. He can make outrageous jump-passes (touchdowns vs South Carolina and Clemson in 2023), but he also has some bad misses on plays where he tries to make these throws with no platform. He loves to give his receivers a chance to make plays down the field, but they let him down a lot in 2023.

Run Game

In the run game, Maye shows very good mobility. He has enough speed to be a legitimate run threat on the NFL level, but he won’t be faster than most defenders like he is in the ACC. They run a fair bit of option and read-option, but he’s a bit slow to make decisions in the read-option game. He is very dangerous on draws and can force the defense out of 2-man. He has the size to be effective on sneaks, but he isn’t a powerful runner. He is at his best on the second play when he can break contain, keep his eyes downfield, and when needed, scramble for first downs.

Last Word

Overall, Maye projects to become a strong starting quarterback with “win with” ability. At this time, he is best suited for and can be effective in a spread scheme with lots of deep shots, simplified half-field reads, and opportunities for improvisation. If he develops the ability to anticipate and progress through reads, the sky is the limit for him, with an upside comparable to Justin Herbert.

Critical Factors

Accuracy	6
Decision Making/Mental	5
Clutch Performance	6

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	6
Deep Accuracy	7
Pocket Awareness	6
Footwork	6
Under Pressure	6
Mobility	7
Arm Strength	7
Release	6
Awkward Throw	6
Eye Discipline	7
Leadership	7
Body Comp	7

Strengths

Prototypical size and athleticism

Arm strength

Accuracy downfield

Weaknesses

Working through progressions

Anticipation

Negative plays

July 9, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: Jayden Daniels

Photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

Jayden Daniels, QB

6-3, 210, Washington Commanders

Overall Grade: 6.7

Scouting Report by Alec Mallon

Overall

Jayden Daniels is an elite athlete with a unique set of skills that will enable him to make game-changing plays with his arm and legs.

Daniels is a Heisman trophy winning quarterback for LSU’s high-octane, shotgun, spread offense. Daniels is a five-year collegiate player, starting all 55 games he appeared in, beginning his first three years at Arizona State then transferring to LSU where he played these past two seasons. Daniels has the desired height for the position, but is rail thin and could serve to add a little mass to his frame. He is a fantastic athlete that has twitchy movements and the breakaway speed to match. His competitiveness and toughness is evident as he can play through physical contact as runner and in the pocket.

Pass Game

Daniels has a lot to like. He is calm and poised with his drops and is always under control. He does a good job of keeping his feet under him and staying square to wherever he is looking. Daniels can move defenders with his eyes, but didn’t have to often with how the offense operated. He shows good ability to go through his progressions, often not getting to option three or four, but always makes sure to reset his feet and have a strong base before throwing. Daniels has a quick and compact release which helps him get the ball out to all areas of the field. His quick release helps him when under duress and can get the ball out quickly. When given a clean pocket initially, Daniels will stand strong and routinely deliver big-time throws if given the ability to step into it. When there is quick pressure and he isn’t given the chance to be in rhythm, he is easily sped up. His feet become a little choppy, and his weight transfer isn’t as fluid, leading for some passes to sail high over his intended receivers. Daniels does have good awareness while in the pocket and feels pressure from all sides well. He does a good job staying on his toes, giving him the ability to shuffle and move quickly while also staying in phase to deliver the ball down the field. As a passer, Daniels is accurate to all fields. He does struggle with touch throws to layer the ball when he has to take some zip off. When his footwork becomes sloppy, it can lead to inaccurate passes.

Daniels is good when delivering the ball with pace and can reach all areas of the field. He also has good ball placement and does a great job of protecting his receivers from oncoming defenders and even stopping their routes to help them change directions after the catch. An area he can improve is throwing with more anticipation. He can hold the ball a beat longer than needed as he is confirming that his targets are coming open downfield.

Run Game

Daniels is dangerous as a passer, but can truly change the game with his legs. On designed runs, Daniels has enough strength and physicality to run between the tackles and get tough yards when needed. When given space, he has excellent short burst and change-of-direction skills to get around edges and make defenders miss in the open field. Daniels may be at his best when designed pass plays break down. Daniels has the short burst and quick acceleration needed to escape the pocket but also has true long speed to beat defensive backs and linebackers to spots in the open field. Daniels takes on contact at the end of runs too often and makes some poor decisions. Due to his skinnier frame, he will need to take better care of himself by sliding and dodging big hits at the next level. He’s been knocked out of multiple college games due to big hits.

Last Word

Daniels projects as a “win-with” starting quarterback at the next level with real flashes of “win because of” traits. Daniels best fits a spread offense that will allow him to use his strong arm to drive the ball down field, while also allowing him to take off and use his legs when needed. Daniels is an accurate passer with a strong arm, but does need to clean up some of his mechanics with pressure around him and throw with better anticipation.

Critical Factors

Graded on 1-9 scale

Accuracy	6
Decision Making/Mental	5
Clutch Performance	6

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	6
Deep Accuracy	6
Pocket Awareness	6
Footwork	6
Under Pressure	5
Mobility	8
Arm Strength	6
Release	7
Awkward Throw	6
Eye Discipline	6
Leadership	6
Body Comp	5

Strengths

Compact release

Playmaking ability

Ball placement

Weaknesses

Mechanics under pressure

Touch throws

Self protection

July 9, 2024

Scouting or Analytics? Both! (And Why Is This Even A Question?)

A couple of weeks ago, Seth Walder of ESPN and I were guests on Establish The Run with Adam Levitan and Michael Leone to talk about how NFL teams use “analytics.” Given my background as a scout for the Saints and Browns before spending my last eight years serving teams at SIS, I have some thoughts!

You can use analytics for game planning and in-game decision making. You can use it for roster construction. One that people might not think about is the performance side of things, where it interacts with strength coaches and the training staff. The NFL is about keeping players healthy. If you can find an advantage there, that’s huge.

There are certain teams and coaches that are fully in. There are certain departments that have specific use cases. Right now, there is still low-hanging fruit available that can give you an edge. It’s all part of the adoption cycle.

I actually don’t like using the word ‘analytics’ because it can make people uncomfortable. People get afraid. People are worried that scouts are going to get replaced.

When someone says, ‘Where can analytics make the most impact?’ I don’t think of it that way. To me, it’s ‘Where can information help people make better decisions that have impact?’

The answer is: everywhere.

In the best scenarios, there’s not a dichotomy of ‘this is scouting’ and ‘this is analytics.’ It’s blended. You’re using your analysts to make scouts that are more informed and can understand information that you’ve mutually agreed is important.

For example, if you wanted to show how a quarterback handled certain situations or you wanted to see a player’s injury history, the way an analytics team organizes information can help a scout with their video cutups. They work better together rather than siloed.

If there are people who believe that the data captures everything and there’s no use for scouts and coaches, that’s crazy and the hubris of that is crazy.

I say this as someone who has worked on both sides. The best information a team has is its scouting information. Their scouts have been trained for years in watching players and their actions in highly specific ways. The best “analytics” make use of this treasure trove of information.

That the place of analytics in the NFL isn’t a settled debate yet is fascinating to me. Our company has a 22-year history in baseball. It’s settled there. Every team has a sizable analytics department. The shift has been made to analytics that are more prescriptive. How can we make better players?

If we look to other sports for a glimpse into the future, the game could change in unforeseeable ways. I can imagine scenarios as wild as teams playing with multiple quarterbacks on the field becoming the norm. More predictably, the game will continue to become much more positionless. When you look across sports, you notice teams encouraging versatile players and creating ways to take advantage of spacing.

That’s where MLB and the NBA have been headed for years now. They measure and value the importance of spacing. And everyone is looking for versatility.

With football analytics, there is versatility. There’s not just 4th-down decision-making info. There’s Expected Points (and in our case, Total Points). There’s injury data. There’s scouting data. Every team has access to NextGen data. There are new developments in AI and machine learning that are going to open all sorts of avenues. We’re just scratching the surface there.

What we don’t fully have yet is belief and buy-in. We’re getting there but there’s still a way to go. I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

July 8, 2024
Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC North

Photo: Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

Our first division preview (AFC East) highlighted three potential conference winners. The AFC North probably can’t claim that, but they had four winning teams in 2023 and the worst of those was missing its starting quarterback (the Bengals and Joe Burrow). This year, the SIS NFL betting model projects a couple of near-misses in terms of getting above .500, but the whole division is projected to be in the 8-to-11-win range.

To talk through the key storylines for each team, we had high school coach and Bengals enthusiast Nate James on the Off the Charts podcast.

Is the Bengals’ defense championship-caliber?

It hasn’t been that long, but there’s been quite a bit of change on the Cincinnati defense since defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo put himself on the map a couple postseasons ago.

In the last two offseasons the defense has lost much of its punch-you-in-the-mouth aesthetic. Two solid but relatively unheralded back-end pieces in safety Jesse Bates (Falcons) and corner Chidobe Awuzie (Titans) have left the fold in consecutive offseasons, and they’ve leaned into smaller athletes with compelling speed (e.g. Dax Hill).

To some extent as a result of that, their biggest liability is likely to be in the run game. The loss of defensive tackle D.J. Reader (Lions) might break the camel’s back of a defense that was 26th in Run Defense Total Points per play last year.

“You look at the fits; they corrected some of the issues theoretically, but they replaced Reader, one of the best nose tackles in the game, with Sheldon Rankins, very much not a nose tackle. They drafted Kris Jenkins, who I like a lot, but not a nose tackle. He has the potential to be an elite run defender, but frame-wise, that’s not what he is.

“You look at the games they did win in the playoffs, you see that Reader just dominated that Tennessee game. It all started with them being able to keep people off schedule, and then Lou could cook when they got to long yardage situations.”

– Nate James

Ravens: In a division with tough defenders up front, can an overhauled offensive line hold up?

The Ravens were in the top 10 in blocking Total Points per play last year, but the loss of three starters (Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Kevin Zeitler) leaves more questions than answers. The unique run scheme that Baltimore has been able to execute with Lamar Jackson at the helm has raised their floor as an offense when the skill position players haven’t been there on the outside. With minimal continuity up front—not to mention a new backfield with Derrick Henry in the fold—there isn’t the same bankability.

“I’m not a huge Roger Rosengarten guy. I know he’s got some length and he can move, but I can’t get the image of him getting bull rushed onto the back of his head in the National Championship Game out of my head….And it’s not like Van Cleveland’s some bum, they’ve got guys that have played in the league some. It’s just an issue of continuity and how they’ll gel together for a team that most people would expect to be in the playoffs.”

– Nate James

“Morgan Moses is not necessarily a name that rings bells across the league, but if Morgan Moses is your OL4 among your starting five you’re pretty happy about that.”

“I also have some concerns about Ronnie Stanley. He’s been through quite a bit in his career, and when I watch, he’s not the same player he was two, three years ago.”

– Bryce Rossler

To put it differently from a numbers perspective, in 2023 SIS’s Sonar depth chart had four of the five Ravens’ starters in the top third at their position by Total Points per game. This year, only center Tyler Linderbaum qualifies.

How much does the Browns’ roster continuity make up for their lack of solid quarterback play?

Obviously the Browns showed in 2023 that they could make the playoffs with chaos at the most important position. But that was with a Defensive Player of the Year campaign from Myles Garrett and an overall defense that was top two in run defense and pass rush by Total Points per play. Defensive performance is famously difficult to project from season to season, and they haven’t made splashy moves in the offseason, but they’re at least bringing continuity to the table.

“The Browns are tailor made to beat the Bengals. They have so much pass rush juice, they’ve got the corners to at least credibly challenge those guys on a down to down basis. They’re really good at corner, pass rush, they can run you over, but are they good enough at quarterback and on the margins to beat really good teams outside of that? There’s not a lot of transactions to talk about, because they haven’t had draft picks and they’ve been able to maintain most of their own guys. It’s hard to look at their roster and not wonder why they’re not a bigger factor.”

– Nate James

The trouble is that Deshaun Watson being healthy doesn’t necessarily mean an improvement at quarterback. Whether it’s injury or time off or psychological baggage, he has not been the same since his MVP-caliber 2020 season.

“I think people would probably point to the quarterback situation last year and be like, ‘Well, there’s no reason we can’t do it again,’ but Deshaun Watson is not good right now. We have him 26th out of 41 quarterbacks since 2022 in Total Points per play. I think he’s sandwiched between Baker Mayfield and Aiden O’Connell, which is not good company.”

– Bryce Rossler

“I think the time away has hurt for sure. The last time he was good was, what, 2020, and that’s too long ago. It’s possible that he could turn around, but it’s legitimately hard not to think of some karmic debt having an impact on his and their success right now.”

– Nate James

Can either new Steelers quarterback make music with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith?

After a winning season with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph rotating through at quarterback, the Steelers cleaned house and added more notable names in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. That said, it’s not clear that more notable production will come from the changes.

“I think it’s fair to say that you trust Russell Wilson a little bit more. Even though he is not necessarily a consistent player, stylistically he is consistent. You know what you’re going to get out of him every game at this point, for better or worse. But he’s never really shown, even when he was good, the ability to consistently do the things that Arthur Smith is going to ask him to do, like turning his back under center, running play action, throwing over the middle.”

– Bryce Rossler

“All stuff he has been documented to not do for a prolonged period of time. You look at the last time Smith ran an offense that was good would have been in Tennessee. Is the archetype for an Arthur Smith quarterback, Ryan Tannehill? We’re talking about two very un-Tannehill-like guys, in terms of being big, standing in, getting punched in the face, pushing the ball downfield, it’s just not what they have.”

– Nate James

In terms of total production, Wilson and Fields were effectively tied, ranking 21st and 22nd (respectively) in Total Points in 2023. The combination of Pickett, Trubisky, and Rudolph would have placed comfortably below that. So there’s room for optimism on an otherwise winning roster, but plenty of uncertainty.

July 8, 2024
Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC East Has 3 Super Bowl Contenders

Photo: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire

There is an argument to be made that three out of the four teams in the AFC East can win the Super Bowl. There is also a case that the fourth team might have drafted the best quarterback in the draft. With so many teams fighting for ultimate glory, this division is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the NFL.

To break it all down, Mark Schofield from SB Nation joins our own Bryce Rossler to look at each team in this division in the latest episode of Off The Charts.

Let’s dive into one thing Bryce and Mark talked about for each team and how it will shape the landscape of the AFC East this season.

How vulnerable are the Bills to giving up the AFC East crown?

In the offseason, the Bills lost Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Poyer, Gabe Davis, and potentially Micah Hyde. A serious reshaping of the roster will take effect in 2024, putting all the more pressure on Josh Allen to be an MVP caliber quarterback.

The Bills have decided to put all their eggs into the Allen MVP basket, as they have given him fewer weapons to make hay on the offensive side of the ball. The last two years of production show that he is capable of achieving this level, as he is only behind Patrick Mahomes in Total Points in that time.

“They still have who I would say is the second-best quarterback in football in Josh Allen. And, despite all the things I said about Josh Allen coming out, he’s a guy that can and has carried this team. But this is kind of a soft rebuilding year for them.”

– Bryce Rossler

A soft rebuild? With all the talent in the AFC East, it is certainly reasonable to think this team is vulnerable to not win the division.

The Jets don’t need vintage Aaron Rodgers to make noise this year.

The 2024 Jets are primed to take a major step forward assuming that they can get a lot more than 4 plays out of Aaron Rodgers this year.

They bolstered the offensive line by signing veteran tackles Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith, and then used the 11th pick in the draft on another tackle in Penn State’s Olu Fashanu.

After Rodgers went down, less-than-middling quarterback play ultimately led to their demise. Their young talents in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson were severely limited by this, and they could never make the impact that they are capable of.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets boast one of the best stop-units in the NFL. In 2023, they ranked second in EPA per play against the pass and sixth against the run. That’s all the more impressive with them being on the field more often than not due to the inept offense. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner will once again be the anchors, with both coming off Pro Bowl seasons and Gardner his second straight first team All-Pro season.

All of the talent here suggests that Rodgers doesn’t need to be otherwordly.

“They need just say an average Rodgers, like, subpar year. He probably gets them to be a playoff team, and that was the hope going into last year. If you just got sort of run-of-the-mill season type numbers from Aaron Rodgers, you’re probably a playoff team.”

– Mark Schofield

Anything can be better than an offense that ranked last in passing EPA and positive play percentage that the Jets’ quarterbacks gave them last season, so a jump to at worst 16th would be a major improvement and can get this team to a place it hasn’t been to since the days of Mark Sanchez.

How good does the Miami Dolphins defense need to be?

The departure of Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator, late-season injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, and free agency losses in Christian Wilkins and Andrew Van Ginkel leave a lot of questions about this Dolphins defense. This defense ranked 12th in EPA per play last season before all that upheaval.

However, there is still plenty of talent here. Phillips and Chubb will return at some point during the season and the Dolphins used their first round pick on Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson to add to the rotation. Jalen Ramsey ranked first in EPA per target allowed among cornerbacks in a partial season. Jevon Holland also finished in the Top 10 in EPA per target among safeties with 15 targets.

The Dolphins also added Jordyn Brooks and Jordan Poyer via free agency, two players who had significant impacts to their prior teams. Brooks topped linebackers in Pass Rush Total Points per play while Poyer was Top 10 among safeties in Run Defense Total Points.

Anthony Weaver comes in from the Ravens to take the reins of a defense that has seen a lot of moving parts. Luckily, this offense is still good enough to lead this team, so a top five defense isn’t really required.

“I think this doesn’t need to be a top five defense. This doesn’t need to be a defense that you’re calling on and hoping will pitch a shutout here and there. It needs to be the kind of defense that can steal an extra possession or two for your offense, particularly. On those days where that offense is struggling a little bit, give them a short field, give them an extra possession via a turnover, things like that.”

– Mark Schofield

Can Drake Maye be the answer for the Patriots to push the ball down the field?

As soon as the 2023 NFL Draft was complete, rumblings began about the 2024 talent at quarterback. At the time, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams were considered the top tier, and mock drafts varied between the two on who would be the top pick.

Fast forward a year after the rise of Jayden Daniels and the meteoric rise of Williams, Maye dropped out of the top tier and ended up as the third overall pick of the draft.

Yes, Maye also took a bit of a step back in 2023, with fewer passing yards and a lower Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) for the Tar Heels, but there are plenty of signs that the Patriots might have found the guy to build around in the future.

“You see some of the throws, some of the reads, the willingness to attack the middle of the field with velocity between defenders with anticipation type throws. You see the competitive toughness, which is the thing that I value highly in quarterbacks.”

– Mark Schofield

In his two full seasons Maye had the 3rd and 15th most pass attempts between the numbers in the FBS, respectively, and he was in the Top 15 in IQR (our Independent QB Rating stat) in both seasons.

Going forward, Maye and the Patriots will look to add verticality in the offense under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. Van Pelt comes from a Browns offense that ranked 7th in average depth of target in 2023. The Patriots’ offense ranked 28th.

The goal this year is to evaluate Maye and see if he can be the quarterback of the future, so giving him every possible opportunity to excel in this offense is crucial.

So what do Mark and Bryce think on how the division will pan out? You can check out the full podcast here for more of a breakdown as well as their predictions.

June 28, 2024

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Non-Quarterbacks in the NFL

Photo: Brian Lynn/Icon Sportswire

If you’ve listened to the Off The Charts Football Podcast, you know that we like to examine things from a “Scouts versus Stats” perspective – and so we’ve brought that back for at least one discussion as we wait for the 2024 season to begin.

This week’s episode considers a question from those perspectives: Who are the Top 10 non-quarterbacks in the NFL.

Ex-NFL scout Matt Manocherian and podcast host Bryce Rossler took the scouts’ perspective. Our director of football analytics Alex Vigderman and research analyst James Weaver created a statistical ranking based on a suite of metrics.

We can tell you that officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. We want to put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side, leveraging both to come to a conclusion.

Fair warning: These are vastly different lists.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Myles Garrett	1. Derrick Henry
2. Micah Parsons	2. T.J. Watt
3. Tyreek Hill	3. Travis Kelce
4. Justin Jefferson	4. Chris Jones
5. Nick Bosa	5. Justin Jefferson
6. T.J. Watt	6. Tyreek Hill
7. Pat Surtain II	7. Sauce Gardner
8. Maxx Crosby	8. George Kittle
9. Roquan Smith	9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
10. Ja’Marr Chase	10. CeeDee Lamb

Now that you’ve finished gasping at a running back – and not Christian McCaffrey – ranking No. 1 in the statistical analysis column, let’s explore the contrast of the two lists.

And let’s get right to the point. Yes, the statistical analysis list has Derrick Henry as the No. 1 non-quarterback.

In simplest form, our stats group created a methodology that is favorable to where Henry stands in the running back universe. He’s No.1 because he’s been “more better” (for lack of a better term) at running back over the last two years than other players are at their respective positions.

The Stats List Methodology

You can listen to the podcast to hear the discussion regarding the surprising analytics-based ranks, but obviously there’s some explanation needed here.

The stats-based ranking includes a two-year average of a player’s results across a handful of flavors of our catch-all Total Points system.

First, there is Points Above Average (PAA) per play, scaled to the positional average and standard deviation. This encapsulates the extent to which the player excels relative to the position on a play-to-play basis.

Second, there is Points Above Replacement (PAR), scaled to the league average and standard deviation. This uses our WAR methodology that measures how valuable a player is in general, incorporating a notion of relative positional value.

This is the first time we’ve mentioned it, but we’re working on a large update to the Total Points system this offseason, which will incorporate a whole bunch of new data points and ideas into the system. We’re not ready to publish those results, but we thought it’d be interesting to include them here to inform our player values.

So, we have each of the scaled PAA per play and PAR values for each of the two versions of Total Points, equally weighted between the four.

The one other element that’s included is player aging. Players start to drop off in production within just a few years of coming into the league, so we want to make sure that we’re capturing that. We computed an aging factor for each of the above metrics and applied that to each player’s two-year averages, to make it more like a projection for 2024.

What the Stats Showed

Having Derrick Henry number 1 is a bit rich, no? Especially given that McCaffrey exists?

Let’s take the second point first. Over the last two years, Henry has generated almost 30 more PAA than McCaffrey as a rusher, which doesn’t get sufficiently counterbalanced by McCaffrey’s receiving excellence.

The gap in rushing is in large part to the difference in their circumstances. Henry has continued to be productive year after year despite having the most carries in the NFL when the offensive line blew a block in front of him over the last two years, and last year he turned more than 60 percent of those into gains. Henry’s elusiveness has not eluded him yet, with similar or better broken and missed tackle rates to McCaffrey’s.

The positional value question is a valid one, though. How is a running back rated so highly in general? In short, we can only measure what we have access to, and that informs how we value positions.

A running back can fumble or get stuffed for a loss on third down, losing a big chunk of value, in a way that a pass rusher or a center does not often do. So the depth of the floor for a running back is more extreme, at least in the statistical record. That means that within the Points Above Replacement framework, the floor for rushers is lower than you think, and therefore the position as a whole is considered more valuable.

The other big contrast

The scouts’ list has several edge rushers on it. The stats list is lacking in them.

Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are at worst among the handful of best defensive players in the league, so there’s not much to say about them to argue for their inclusion at the top of a crowded field of edge rushers. Parsons is probably the pick if you need one guy to wreck a play, but consistent with their general approach, Garrett got the nod because of how he impacts all phases of the game.

An otherworldly motor against the pass and the run got Maxx Crosby onto the list, and the scouts were indignant at his exclusion from the stats-based list—but only moderately indignant compared to what happened at the top of the board.

So why are many of the top pass rushers in the league not at the top of the stats-based list (although the upcoming Total Points updates will do a lot to make up for that)?

There are more excellent edge rushers than there are excellent interior players, so a single player at the top stands out more in the interior. Chris Jones projects to be one of the biggest risers in the updated Total Points because of how much he dominates as a pass rusher from the interior, as he ranked first and third in 2023 and 2022 in pressure rate, respectively. This isn’t true for the edge rushers, where there are many solid producers.

Parsons will have a similar jump to Jones, but he’s competing at a much tougher position at the top. There are six edge rushers in the top 20 on the stats-based list, compared to just two interior defenders.

Also, our measure of the floor of a defensive front player isn’t as low as it is for other positions—a bad play by a cornerback or a running back is more likely to be a big liability. As a result, when we determine replacement level for each position, we don’t have as much value assigned to pass rushers as we do other positions.

Other highlights from the stats list

Travis Kelce might have been a more palatable choice for this list a year ago, but it’s worth noting that he still posted the best receiving PAA among tight ends last season. George Kittle’s balanced skill set got him on the list, coming in the Top 2 in Receiving and Blocking Total Points among tight ends. However, even at a younger age, it doesn’t make up for the gap in receiving production.

The lists differed on which of the top cornerbacks cracked their lists, with Sauce Gardner getting the nod thanks to his consistent production across his first two seasons. He finished in the top 10 each of the last two seasons in yards allowed per coverage snap, yielding fewer than 700 receiving yards in nearly two years.

Amon-Ra St. Brown snuck onto the stats-based list because of how well he does his job, even though his job might be limited relative to others at the position. He is as money as it gets in big spots, ranking second in the NFL in both On-Target Catch Rate and third down completions over the last two years.

CeeDee Lamb is there because of his production in 2023, specifically ranking first in Receiving Total Points. The updates to Total Points will ding him because of his merely good catch rate on accurate balls, which is why he ended up below St. Brown, for example.

Other highlights from the scouts’ list

While the stats-based list was heavy on wide receivers, the scouts-based list was heavy on edge rushers, to the point that they felt the need to stretch for a couple of less-valuable positions.

In the interest of being less boring, the scouts included Roquan Smith as an off-ball linebacker choice. He’s a downhill player and an “enforcer,” per Matt, and while he doesn’t have the crazy athleticism that other potential candidates do, he closed the gap in that respect in 2023 in terms of being an excellent well-rounded player.

The scouts really only considered two cornerbacks for their list, and they went with Pat Surtain II over Gardner as the prototypical corner with versatility and consistency that very few corners have.

Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb were candidates for the back end of their list, with Chase getting the nod because “he’s more of a headache in more ways that lead to touchdowns for him and for other players on his offense.” This also contributed to the choice of Tyreek Hill as their top receiver.

Want to hear the rest of the debate and discussion? Check out Off The Charts wherever you get your podcasts.

June 13, 2024

Analyzing NFL Win Totals with the SIS Prediction Model

We’ve reached prediction season for the NFL. A big part of dissecting the upcoming season is analyzing the schedule and predicting which teams will overperform or underperform their expectations.

Expectations these days come from the sportsbooks, especially through win totals. These markets have been posted and bettors have begun forming their stance on each individual team. The lines will move all offseason long, as more information and opinions will move the lines in one direction or another.

At SIS, we have created a pre-game prediction model to predict the spreads, totals, team totals, and moneylines of each game using a multitude of data points that we collect. We also constructed the model to be able to run for the entire season, allowing us to run simulations on the season and create win total prices of our own. The model went 18-13-1 in over-under predictions on team’s preseason win totals last season.

We have run our first simulation of the year and the Football R&D team selected their favorite wagering opportunities in the win total markets based on the model’s output. The three of us (Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver) each selected four hypothetical wagers we would make in a snake draft style on the Off the Charts Football Podcast.

These are our model’s win total projections.

Team	DraftKings Win Total	Model Projected Win Totals	Difference
Raiders	6.5	10.4	Over 3.9
Saints	7.5	10.7	3.2
Bears	8.5	10.7	2.2
Lions	10.5	12.3	1.8
Buccaneers	8.5	10.3	1.8
Browns	8.5	9.8	1.3
Packers	9.5	10.7	1.2
Seahawks	7.5	8.7	1.2
Jets	9.5	10.6	1.1
Patriots	4.5	5.5	1
Ravens	11.5	12.1	0.6
Bills	10.5	11.1	0.6
Giants	6.5	7.1	0.6
Cowboys	10.5	11.1	0.6
Rams	8.5	9	0.5
Cardinals	6.5	6.9	0.4
Bengals	10.5	10.9	0.4
Texans	9.5	9.4	Under -0.1
Panthers	5.5	5.2	-0.3
Dolphins	9.5	9	-0.5
Chiefs	11.5	10.9	-0.6
Broncos	5.5	4.7	-0.8
Steelers	8.5	7.4	-1.1
Jaguars	8.5	7.4	-1.1
Falcons	9.5	8.1	-1.4
Chargers	8.5	6.9	-1.6
49ers	11.5	9.8	-1.7
Colts	8.5	6.1	-2.4
Vikings	6.5	4	-2.5
Titans	6.5	4	-2.5
Commanders	6.5	3.2	-3.3
Eagles	10.5	6.8	-3.7

Model Overview (How did we get these numbers?)

Our model utilizes 18 features that are a combination of game, team, and player level metrics.

Game level metrics include whether or not the game is in the postseason, weather predictions like wind speed and precipitation probability, and a home team indicator.

Some of the team level metrics include weighted points for and points against averages, both offensive and defensive weighted penalty yards, and some possession metrics in the form of snaps per game or drive. Each of these metrics is computed for the team’s past 7 games, with the most recent weighted more heavily.

We use a weighted 16-game average with our Total Points for the player metrics. We calculate the average Total Points for each skill (Passer, Rusher, Pass Rush, etc.) for every player per snap, and then aggregate the projected values for each game to the team level using each player’s projected snap counts for the game.

Then, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate variance in player performance by simulating 1,000 games for each player. After each simulation, all of the metrics are incorporated into a Lasso regression model to predict the team’s point total. The distributions of the predictions are aggregated to an average and spread so that point estimates and alternate point estimates can be drawn from the distribution.

Now that there are lines for each game, we can simulate 1,000 regular seasons based on the moneyline output and take the average win total for each team.

Analyzing the Overs

The Off The Charts podcast crew of Bryce Rossler, Alex Vigderman and I went through the over-under possibilities here and drafted the ones they felt best about (Listen to the episode here).

They went with the Raiders, Saints, Browns, Packers, Patriots and Cardinals on the ‘over’ side (listen to the episode to find out who took whom and their reasoning).

The model picked the Raiders and Saints to go over their Vegas win total by the widest margin. The Raiders are projected to have 10.4 wins and the Saints 10.7, good for 3.9 and 3.2 wins of value, respectively.

Both teams finished last season strong in regards to the various model inputs. The Saints are No. 1 in our Points For weighted average and No. 5 in Points Against weighted average, which goes back to the last 7 games played of last season. Additionally, Derek Carr ranks 2nd in the Passer Points per play weighted average coming into this season (5th if you include projected snap count).

The Raiders added Gardner Minshew, who is 8th in Passer Points per play weighted average and will battle Aidan O’Connell for the starting QB spot. They also come into the season 9th and 6th in the Points For and Points Against weighted averages, respectively.

The Browns and Packers come in at 1.3 and 1.2 wins above their current win totals of 8.5 and 9.5. The Browns will welcome back Deshaun Watson after catching lightning in a bottle with Joe Flacco at the end of last season. The Packers also finished strong, pushing the 49ers to the brink in the divisional round and are ranked second in recency-weighted Points For.

Our crew drafted both the Patriots and Cardinals even though the model total only slightly exceeded the DraftKings number. The reason: quarterback optimism.

Unders

After a total collapse at the end of last season, the Eagles come in with the most value towards the under, as they are projected to win only 6.8 games compared to a win total of 10.5. They rank 26th and 30th in recent points for and points against.

Bryce took both the Eagles and the Vikings, who are projected for 4 wins in our model when DraftKings has the over-under set at 6.5. Bryce doesn’t have faith in J.J. McCarthy and believes it will take him more than a season to get to a good place.

“This is a player who doesn’t have a lot of reps at game speed,” Bryce said. “I know he started several years at Michigan but he’s not passing a lot in that offense. I think Year 1 in the NFL is going to be very rough. I know they feel like as an organization that they’ve found their quarterback. But I don’t see it in Year 1.”

The Vikings defense also ranked in the bottom eight in points against, with a bottom-five rank in defensive Total Points over the full season.

Two of the other unders taken in our “draft” were the Chargers, who have a 6.9 expected win value compared to their 8.5 wins total, and the 49ers, who have a 9.8 expected win value compared to a win total of 11.5.

The Chargers are in the midst of a small rebuild and culture change with a new coach, and our drafter, Alex, wants to see it to believe it with another new coaching staff and a reworked skill position group.

The 49ers, fresh off the Super Bowl loss, were in a few dogfights down the stretch in the playoffs, and the defense wasn’t as good as its reputation last year, hence the reasons for the differential.

“I look at their schedule … they get the AFC East, and they lump in the Chiefs,” James said on our podcast (that’s me!) “Improved NFC, Super Bowl hangover being real. I just think 11.5, that’s pretty high.”

A Battle in Charlotte

Two of our draftees, Alex and Bryce, will go head-to-head this season when it comes to the Carolina Panthers.

Bryce has taken the under 5.5 because he doesn’t see a scenario in which Bryce Young can be a good quarterback for this team.

Alex, on the other hand, thinks the hate has gone too far, and has a little more optimism with a new head coach in Dave Canales (who improved the quarterback play of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith over the last few years).

“This is my pick in the genre of ‘Rookie quarterback might take them somewhere,’” Alex said. “I think you could also have ‘Rookie quarterback is anomalously bad’ and people get kind of insane about it. A year ago people were feeling reasonably good about the rest of the team, offensive line and defense. I do think there’s an overreaction and they can get a little bit of a bounceback.”

The model sides with Bryce by the slimmest of margins, projecting 5.2 wins to the win total of 5.5.

Check out the full Off the Charts Football Podcast here for more analysis!

Follow us on Twitter at @football_SIS and check out the DataHub and DataHub Pro for access to all our stats.

June 6, 2024

Under Pressure? Projecting Sack Numbers using Advanced Pass Rushing Metrics

In today’s pass-happy league, the No. 1 concern for defenses has been affecting the play of the quarterback. Allowing time from a clean pocket to make a throw spells doom for defenses.

We have seen the massive contracts given to high-end pass rushers who make game-changing plays. Nick Bosa, Chris Jones, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, and T.J. Watt all find themselves in the Top 25 in average annual contract value where that list is primarily made up of quarterbacks and a few receivers.

To that point, we set out to project the next crop of sack artists using some of our metrics. The big pain with projecting pass rush performance, though, is that context plays a huge role. An interior player who primarily plays on early downs has a much harder time than a situational pass rusher coming off the edge.

We created Expected Pressure Percentage and Pressure Percentage Plus-Minus a few years ago for this reason. The former uses game situation, player alignment, and quarterback drop type to estimate how likely a player is to generate pressure on each play, and the latter is how much the defender performed above or below that expectation.

In order to better predict year-over-year sack production, we looked into four stats to see how predictive each of these are towards the following year’s sack output.

– the previous year sack percentage

– pressure percentage

– expected pressure percentage

– pressure percentage plus-minus of pass rushers

Once we dove into what has predictive value, we looked at some interesting candidates for positive or negative sack regression in 2024.

Methodology

Sack percentage, pressure percentage, expected pressure percentage, and pressure percentage plus-minus were aggregated for every player in their previous season going back to 2019.

These four metrics were then used as features in linear regression models to predict the sack percentage of the player’s next season. Players were only considered if they had 100 pass rushes in each season.

The significance of each variable and adjusted R² values of each model were analyzed to see which metrics have the best year-over-year predictive value. The adjusted R² value is a 0-to-1 measure of how well the features explain the variability of the dependent variable, in this case current year sack percentage, and is adjusted based on how many features there are in the model.

Results

Model Adjusted R² Statistically Significant?

Sack% 0.13 Yes

Pressure% 0.27 Yes

Expected Pressure% 0.29 Yes

Pressure% +/- 0.03 Yes

Expected Pressure% + Pressure% +/- 0.32 Yes/Yes

For starters, all of these are statistically significant, meaning that an increase or decrease in one of these features meaningfully impacts the following year’s sack percentage.

Also, we used sack percentage instead of actual sacks because we need to factor how many pass rushes a player had in a given season. Playing time can be affected by a variety of factors, so we are keeping it simple by focusing on per-play performance.

Sack percentage comes in with the second lowest adjusted R² value when predicting next season’s sack percentage. Considering that sacks are more output than process when it comes to good pass rush, this makes sense. Sacks come at such a low sample that having one more or fewer can drastically impact this percentage, especially year-over-year.

Expected pressure percentage shows a slightly higher adjusted R² value than pressure percentage and are the two with the best explanation of variability in next season’s sack percentage. This is the process driven argument, as getting more pressure on a quarterback shows better predictive value than your sack percentage from the previous year.

Pressure percentage plus-minus comes in at the bottom. This metric strips out the opportunities to get a sack and looks solely at the skill portion. Volume is a big part in getting sacks and situational factors are very impactful, so the low explanation in variability here (low adjusted R²) makes sense.

The best model combines expected pressure percentage with pressure percentage plus-minus, coming in with an adjusted R² of 0.32. Factoring in the skill component with the expected measure makes the model better explain variability, and it does so better than just using pressure percentage because it weighs the situational factors more strongly.

With the latter model leading the way, let’s use that to predict some sack percentages for 2024.

2024 Outlook

Decline in Wattage

T.J. Watt once again led the league in sacks for the 3rd time in 2023 with 19. However, his unimpressive expected pressure rate of 10.3% would suggest he is in for a drop in sack percentage by 1.8 percentage points in 2024. This would be a massive drop off by Watt’s standards, putting him roughly at 10 sacks this upcoming season based if he had roughly 500 pass rushes. Leading the league in sacks three times is very impressive, but sustaining that production over time is a very tall task.

Trading Trey?

Trey Hendrickson walked back his trade request with the Bengals by expressing his desire to win a Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Hendrickson, who had a career high 17.5 sacks with the Bengals last season, is a candidate due for a drop in sack percentage by 2.2 percentage points. His expected pressure rate put him in the middle of the pack last season at 10.1%. Looking at a sell high opportunity, the return on Hendrickson might be enough to warrant a trade.

The Youthful Cameron Jordan

Cam Jordan may be past his prime at age 34, but he can still affect the quarterback at a high rate. His 10.3% expected pressure percentage last year came only with a 0.5% sack percentage. According to the model, this should result in a bump to 11.5% in his 14th season in the league. Can Jordan turn back the clock? Maybe not, but he should have higher production than his 2.5 sacks a season ago.

A More Hungry Lion

Aidan Hutchinson is projected to take another step forward and increase his sack percentage to 2.2% this year, good for another half-sack. Hutchinson took a leap last season, ranking 8th in pressure percentage among those with 30 pressures and 12th in sacks. Another step forward would be huge for a Lions team coming oh so close to getting to the Super Bowl last season.

Sack Title Contenders

Looking at the predicted sack percentages for next year and using the pass rushes a player had last year, Maxx Crosby (13) and Aidan Hutchinson (13) are our top contenders to take home the sack crown, with Danielle Hunter, T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and Khalil Mack just behind. Josh Uche, who had only 214 pass rushes last season, is projected to have a higher sack percentage this year at 2.2%. Playing with Matthew Judon on the other side, Uche has a chance to accumulate a high sack total given more opportunities.

Conclusion

Using advanced pressure metrics gives us more of a sense of predicted output going forward. Sacks are the output, but their predictive power is minimal. Looking at the process of getting a sack leads us to seeing who may be a diamond in the rough poised for a breakout season or someone who might be overvalued. After all, this is arguably the second-most important position in football, so getting these players right is critical to success.

May 28, 2024

Model	Adjusted R²	Statistically Significant?
Sack%	0.13	Yes
Pressure%	0.27	Yes
Expected Pressure%	0.29	Yes
Pressure% +/-	0.03	Yes
Expected Pressure% + Pressure% +/-	0.32	Yes/Yes