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Category: John Dewan’s Stat of the Week

  • Stat of the Week: How Good is Kyler Murray?

    By Sports Info Solutions Staff

    Last week’s Stat of the Week covered the SIS rankings and stats for the top players available in this year’s NFL Draft. There’s another player who generated headlines this week who was not at the top of those rankings. Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray announced he would pursue a career in the NFL rather than in professional baseball.

    Murray is the No. 2 ranked quarterback in The SIS Football Rookie Handbook behind Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. But Murray is the most impressive quarterback from a statistical perspective.

    There are concerns that Murray is too small to succeed in the NFL (he’s 5’9½”). But Murray leads this year’s top quarterback prospects in all of the leaderboards listed in our book.

    Kyler Murray Leads QB Prospects In …

    CategoryValue
    Pass Yards Per Attempt11.6
    On-Target Percentage79.2
    Independent QB Rating (IQR)143.2
    Expected Points Added Per Dropback0.47
    Rushing Expected Points Added61.4
    Total Expected Points Added236.9

    * Independent QB Rating (IQR) builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.

    ** Expected Points Added (EPA) is the change in Expected Points for the offense on a play.

    In several of these categories, Murray has a sizable advantage. He leads West Virginia’s Will Grier by nearly two yards per attempt, 16 points in IQR and nearly 97 Total Expected Points Added.

    Murray also mostly passes the eye test. In The SIS Football Rookie Handbook, Murray is described as “a rare playmaker at the quarterback position with the requisite mental capacity to maximize his arm talent and mobility but may need to rework his release as a pro to mitigate size concerns.”

  • Stat of the Week: Top Draft Prospects

    By NATHAN COOPER, JOHN TODD, and MARK SIMON

    With the football season over, it’s time to shift attention to the future and the upcoming NFL Draft.

    In recent years SIS has tracked NFL and FBS games in a similarly-detailed manner to how it tracks baseball. That allows the company to cover the Draft thoroughly.

    This season, SIS Video Scouts combined to chart each FBS game a minimum of four times to track specifics such as formation, personnel, route type, and type of run. The compiled information was supplemented with observations of skills and other critical factors so that players could be evaluated at each position.

    Players were graded by Video Scouts on a 1-to-9 scale both in individual skills and critical factors, and then overall among those at their position. If a player’s final grade is 6.5 or higher, he is generally a starting-level NFL player. If a player is graded 7.0 or higher, he is thought to have a Pro Bowl-caliber future. Each scouting report is written by a Video Scout and cross-checked by others in the scout group.

    Nine college players graded at least a 7.0 in the inaugural set of rankings. Seven of the players play on the defensive side.

    Highest Grades, 2019 NFL Draft-Eligible Players

    NameSchoolPositionGrade
    Quinnen WilliamsAlabamaDT7.4
    Ed OliverHoustonDT7.1
    Josh JacobsAlabamaRB7.1
    T.J. HockensonIowaTE7.0
    Nick BosaOhio StateDE7.0
    Devin WhiteLSULB7.0
    DeAndre BakerGeorgiaCB7.0
    Greedy WilliamsLSUCB7.0
    Taylor RappWashingtonS7.0

    Alabama redshirt sophomore defensive tackle Quinnen Williams earned the highest grade among all players. He was described by the SIS video scout as “an explosively powerful defensive talent, whose rare interior contact balance creates consistent overwhelming backfield chaos, resulting in a next-level force for years to come.”

    Statistically speaking, Williams ranked first among SEC defensive linemen with 57 pressures, 43 hurries, and 30 quarterback hits. Not bad for someone who was in his first season as a starter.

    Williams’ teammate, junior running back Josh Jacobs, graded out highest among offensive players with a 7.1. The Video Scout’s description noted that “Jacobs plays with elite tenacity, and with his lower-body strength and quick footwork, has the makings of a future star.”

    What stood out for Jacobs was that when he ran the ball, good things tended to happen. Jacobs had a positive play percentage of 59 percent, meaning that on 59 percent of his carries, Alabama had an increase in Expected Points Added (EPA). No other running back among those draft prospects who were graded by SIS had even a 55 percent positive play percentage.

    These grades and stats can be found in the 2019 SIS Football Rookie Handbook, which will be out in mid-February. More than 250 players are evaluated by the SIS scouting staff, with two pages devoted to each player’s skills and stats. You can learn more about the book and pre-order it at the ACTA Sports website.

    Happy scouting!

  • Stat of the Week: Active players on Hall of Fame path

    With this year’s Hall of Fame class announced, here’s a look at which active players have cleared the bar of Bill James’ Hall of Fame Value Standard.

    As a reminder, a player’s Hall of Fame Value (HOF-V) is his Win Shares plus four times his Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The standard for Hall of Fame worthiness is a score of 500.

    Not surprisingly, Angels DH and first baseman Albert Pujols leads the way. With 477 Win Shares and 99.9 WAR, he’s at 876.6 on the HOF-V scale. That ranks 27th all-time, sandwiched between legends Mike Schmidt (894.2) and Carl Yastrzemski (873.6).

    Miguel Cabrera is also well above the HOF-V line at 670.6. A ruptured biceps limited Cabrera to 38 games last season, but his .316/.395/.551 career slash line and 465 home runs solidify his status among the game’s greats.

    Robinson Cano’s Hall of Fame candidacy was addressed in an earlier Stat of the Week . A PED-related suspension complicates his status, but his numbers (.304/.355/.493 with 311 home runs) easily clear the HOF-V threshold. He’s at 613.8, not far from Hall-of-Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg (618).

    Ichiro Suzuki says he wants to play in 2019, and for the purposes of this exercise, let’s presume he sees considerable time. By HOF-V, he’s Hall of Fame worthy at 561.2, just behind Hall of Famers Mike Piazza (562.4) and Vladimir Guerrero (561.6).

    Reds first baseman Joey Votto has a .311/.427/.530 slashline, in a 12-year career and has led the National League in on-base percentage seven times including each of the last three seasons. His Win Shares and WAR combination produces an HOF-V of 533.2, a little over the line for worthiness.

    Lastly, Mike Trout is only 27 years old and has played eight MLB seasons. But he’s already surpassed the HOF-V bar. He’s at 523.2, a remarkable total for a player of his age and experience. Trout has added at least 70 points to his HOF-V total in six of the last seven seasons. If he does so in the next two seasons, he’ll rank among the top 100 players in this stat (and having played 10 seasons, he will officially be Cooperstown eligible).

    If he averages 70 HOF-V over the next 10 seasons, he’ll be at 1,223.2, not far behind Willie Mays (1,267.6) for fifth all-time.

    Yadier Molina (499.9) is as close as you can come to reaching the bar. He should clear the threshold almost immediately, presuming no injuries or major performance issues.

    You might have noticed that there are no active pitchers on this list. The pitcher who is closest to a 500 HOF-V is Yankees starter CC Sabathia(489.8). Sabathia has averaged 21.6 HOF-V the last three seasons, so he’s got a good chance to surpass the 500 mark in 2019. Likewise,Justin Verlander (467.6) should clear 500 so long as he pitches at the level he did in each of the last three seasons, in which he averaged an HOF-V of 45.5.

    Perhaps surprisingly Zack Greinke (465.8) is in a similar spot. Another season matching his 2018 campaign (17 Win Shares, 4.8 WAR, 36.2 HOF-V) would push him over the line.

    For those wondering about Clayton Kershaw (444.4) and Max Scherzer (387), public perception may differ from this form of statistical analysis. Both still have a little way to go. Kershaw has been hurt by injuries the last three seasons that have limited his innings. Scherzer didn’t reach a level of consistent excellence until his sixth MLB season, so he still has some ground to make up.

    Three players retired in 2018 who surpassed 500 on the HOF-V scale.Adrian Beltre (755.8), Joe Mauer (631.7), and Chase Utley (552.6) and will all have their names come for discussion in five years. By the measure of this stat, they are Hall Of Fame worthy.

    If you want to check where your favorite player stands in the Hall of Fame Value Standard, go to Bill James Online. If you would like to read more about the Hall of Fame Value Standard, purchase the 2019 Bill James Handbook or visit the SIS Blog.

    Active Leaders in HOF-V
    NameHOF-V
    Albert Pujols876.6
    Miguel Cabrera670.6
    Robinson Cano613.8
    Ichiro Suzuki561.2
    Joey Votto533.2
    Mike Trout523.2
    Yadier Molina499.9
    CC Sabathia489.8
    Ian Kinsler475.2
    Justin Verlander467.6
    Zack Greinke465.8

  • Stat of the Week: Hall of Fame Value Standard Part II

    Last week’s Stat of the Week looked at Bill James’ newest creation, the Hall of Fame Value Standard (HOF-V), and how it analyzes the worthiness of some of the debatable position player candidates on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot. To supplement that, here’s a look at the pitcher candidates of a similar debatable status.

    As a reminder, HOF-V is calculated by adding a player’s Win Shares and four times their Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR). A score of 500 is considered to be the standard for Hall of Fame worthiness.

    Mike Mussina has the highest HOF-V score of any pitcher on the ballot not named Roger Clemens (who would be a certain Hall-of-Famer if not for PED allegations against him). Mussina’s HOF-V of 601.6 is higher than those of fellow former Orioles ace Jim Palmer (587.6) and a contemporary Hall-of-Famer, John Smoltz (565.0).

    Curt Schilling is a notch below Mussina statistically, with 252 Win Shares and 79.6 WAR (to Mussina’s 270 and 82.9). Schilling crosses the threshold with an HOF-V of 570.4, and that’s without even counting his postseason numbers (2.23 ERA in 133 1/3 innings).

    Roy Halladay is polling very well among Hall of Fame voters, indicating that his election is likely. By the HOF-V, he comes up a little short at 479.2. James’ assessment is that the system looks at overall numbers rather than peak performance, and that penalizes Halladay enough to bring him below the line. There are Hall-of-Fame pitchers with an HOF-V below 500 — among them is ex-Yankees ace Whitey Ford (488.6) — so Halladay wouldn’t be alone in that regard. James acknowledged he would vote for Halladay if he had a vote.

    Andy Pettitte is also below the HOF-V line at 465.2, as he was deemed to have had a number of very good years, but not enough great years to add up to Hall of Fame status.

    The system has imperfections when it comes to evaluating relief pitching. Both
    Mariano Rivera (497.8) and Billy Wagner (292.8) come in below the HOF-V bar. Rivera is widely considered to be the best relief pitcher of all-time. Wagner posted incredible numbers in strikeouts and saves.

    But as James wrote in the
    2019 Bill James Handbook, WAR and Win Shares don’t produce a number that represents a closer’s true value.

    “Although MLB field staff don’t think in those terms, they act as if they believe that the Leverage Index for a closer is about four to five … Win Shares and WAR both use Leverage Indexes for closers around 2.00. Let’s say Billy Wagner works 70 innings a year. With a Leverage Index of 2.00 his impact is more as it would be if he was pitching 140 innings a year at the same level of effectiveness … Wagner appears to have much less impact on his team than a good starting pitcher … But is this fair to Billy Wagner? … Wagner’s value is in essence kept in a cage because other people are acting on false assumptions. It’s not his fault. His value doesn’t reflect his performance level.”

    If you want to check where your favorite player stands in the Hall of Fame Value Standard, go to
    Bill James Online. If you would like to read more about the Hall of Fame Value Standard, purchase the 2019 Bill James Handbook or visit the SIS Blog. The BBWAA will announce the newest inductees on January 22. Happy debating!

    2019 HOF Eligible Pitchers
    Roger Clemens 995.4
    Mike Mussina 601.6
    Curt Schilling 570.4
    Mariano Rivera 497.8
    Roy Halladay 479.2
    Andy Pettitte 465.2
    Roy Oswalt 372.4
    Derek Lowe 311.6
    Billy Wagner 292.8
    Freddy Garcia 275.6
    Ted Lilly 220.4
    Jon Garland 209
    Darren Oliver 207.8

  • Stat of the Week: Year-End MLB Awards Part II

    Last week, we gave out some year-end MLB Awards to hitters, infielders, and outfielders. This week, we’re specifically rewarding the work of pitchers and catchers. Here are some honors that celebrate their outstanding performance.

    The Contact Minimizer

    The Contact Minimizer goes to the pitcher who limited hard contact best in 2018. The winner of that honor is Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard.

    Of the batted balls hit against Syndergaard, only 21.9 percent were hard-hit. He was nearly three full percentage points ahead of the next-best starting pitcher, his teammate Zack Wheeler (24.8 percent). Both were better than Jacob deGrom, who placed fifth at 26.6 percent. Not surprisingly, Mets starting pitchers had the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors last season (29 percent).

    Among relief pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in 2018, there’s a surprise name atop the list. Pirates pitcher Kyle Crick beat out some of the game’s best closers with a hard-hit rate of only 22.5 percent. Crick’s overall numbers in his second season in the majors were notably better than those in his first (which was with the Giants). He finished with a 2.39 ERA and three home runs allowed in 60 1/3 innings pitched.

    Stolen Base Stopper

    The award for the Stolen Base Stopper goes to the pitcher and catcher who had the most Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2018. On the mound, that was Padres starting pitcher Eric Lauer with four. Lauer pitched only 112 innings, but earned the award because of his excellent pickoff move. Lauer had an MLB-best eight pickoffs and two pitcher caught stealings to offset the five stolen bases he allowed.

    The catcher winner is not a surprise. With a couple of brief exceptions, Salvador Pérez has been among the best in the game at basestealer deterrence since he became an everyday catcher in 2013. In 2018, he threw out 24-of-51 basestealers (47 percent) and picked off three more to net seven Stolen Base Runs Saved. That matched his single-season high set in 2012.

    The Hall of Framer

    The Hall of Framer award goes to the catcher who had the best pitch-framing numbers in 2018. This is measured by looking at extra strikes gained on a per-100-pitches basis. The winner of this award is Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes, who gained 1.8 extra strikes per 100 called pitches. Barnes has shown great skill in this area. Yasmani Grandal often got credit for being a top framer for the Dodgers, but Barnes has been just as good, if not better.

    Max Stassi of the Astros was the runner-up for this honor (1.7 extra strikes per 100 pitches). He got significant playing time for the first time in his career and showed that he could excel at this skill at a high level.

  • Stat of the Week: A Statistical View of the College Football Playoff Field

    The College Football Playoff field is set: the semifinal games on December 29 will feature No. 1 Alabama against No. 4 Oklahoma, and No. 2 Clemson against No. 3 Notre Dame.

    All four teams have had interesting storylines at quarterback, while also dominating in other facets of the game. Using Sports Info Solutions’ advanced metrics and charting data, let’s take a brief look at each team’s success this season.

    No. 1 Alabama

    Tua Tagovailoa burst onto the scene in last year’s National Championship when he replaced Jalen Hurts and led the Crimson Tide over Georgia. Retaining the starting job this year, Tua has not disappointed. He ranks second in the nation in our Independent Quarterback Rating* (IQR) metric, behind the quarterback Alabama will face in the semifinal: Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray.

    Yet it was Hurts who played the hero in last weekend’s SEC championship victory after replacing an injured Tagovailoa. It’s worth noting that Hurts has done well himself this season, completing 50 of 67 passes and posting a 139.6 IQR—right behind Tagovailoa when considering quarterbacks who have attempted 50 or more passes in 2018.

    Best IQR Among QB with 50+ Attempts
    Player School IQR
    Kyler Murray Oklahoma 147.9
    Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 143.1
    Jalen Hurts Alabama 139.6
    Jake Fromm Georgia 134.2
    Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 131.2

    Alabama has been arguably the best team at throwing the ball deep. On 56 throws of 20-plus yards, they have completed 35 of them and scored 16 touchdowns. On a per-attempt basis, those marks are the best in college football.

    The talented Jerry Jeudy has been the preferred target at wide receiver. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, he ranks third with 12.3 yards per target and fifth with a 134.9 Receiver Rating (which is traditional passer rating on targets).

    No. 2 Clemson

    Trevor Lawrence has excelled since taking over for Kelly Bryant at quarterback. The true freshman has picked apart man coverages; his 137.8 IQR in such situations ranks fourth behind Tagovailoa, Fromm, and Murray.

    Beyond Lawrence, Clemson dominates the running game on both sides of the ball. The defense has allowed 2.1 yards per rush attempt (YPA), the best mark in the nation. With draft prospects Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence on the interior of the defensive line, the Tigers are a force up the middle. Clemson has surrendered only 1.9 yards per attempt on inside runs. Every other FBS team has allowed at least 3 YPA on such plays.

    Offensively, Travis Etienne picks up the bulk of the carries and has been one of the best rushers on a per-attempt basis, averaging 8.3 YPA. Along with Memphis’ Darrell Henderson and Florida Atlantic’s Devin Singletary, Etienne is one of three players with more than 20 rushing touchdowns on the season.

    No. 3 Notre Dame

    Like Alabama and Clemson, a change at quarterback was a major storyline for the Fighting Irish. Through Week 3, Brandon Wimbush registered just a 54.0 IQR, which ranked 117th out of the 122 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts to that point.

    Since taking over the starting job, Ian Book’s 107.2 IQR ranks among the top 30 nationally. Notre Dame gained accuracy in the passing game with the transition, with Book’s 70 percent completion rate signifying a considerable improvement over Wimbush’s 53 percent rate.

    Pass defense has been similarly important. The Irish pass rush leads the country in quarterback hurries, just ahead of college football’s other contenders. Defensive end Julian Okwara ranks among the top ten nationally with 39 hurries, while tackle Jerry Tillery and end Khalid Kareem have contributed 30 and 26, respectively.

    Most QB Hurries
    School Hurries
    Notre Dame 187
    Alabama 186
    Clemson 175
    Ohio State 172

    No. 4 Oklahoma

    Leading the nation with a 147.9 IQR, Kyler Murray has been outstanding as the successor to Baker Mayfield. Murray has been particularly dynamic outside of the pocket; among signal callers with at least 25 attempts in those situations, his 146.3 IQR, 16 percent touchdown rate, and 10.4 yards per attempt all lead the country. He can also push the ball downfield with accuracy, ranking third in on-target percentage on throws of 20 or more yards.

    Murray’s primary targets are Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb, who rank first and second, respectively, in yards per target (among receivers with at least 75 targets on the season).

    Despite losing running back Rodney Anderson to a season-ending injury, Oklahoma’s ground game has remained solid with Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks. As a team, the Sooners are among the best at breaking tackles (ranking second with a total of 143) and rushing to the outside (ranking second with an average of 8.1 YPA).

    * Independent Quarterback Rating is Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric. It builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by accounting for results that are outside of the quarterback’s control – dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. – to form a better benchmark of QB value.

  • Stat of the week: Adrián Beltré’s Excellence

    Adrián Beltré’s highly-successful MLB career ended last week when he announced his
    retirement after 21 seasons and more than 2,900 games.

    Beltré’s career began at age 19, but it took off in 2004 when he hit .334/.388/.629 with
    48 home runs. That launched a career that finished with 477 home runs and 1,707 RBIs. He was a four-time Silver Slugger Award winner and a four-time Fielding Bible Award winner. His
    373 career Win Shares rank sixth among those whose primary position was third
    base (Mike Schmidt ranks first with 467).

    Bill James devised a Hall of Fame Value Standard system that evaluates player
    greatness, combining Win Shares and four times Baseball-Reference.com’s Wins Above Replacement. A full explanation can be found in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook. Here are the top five players of all-time per that system.

    Top 5 Players – Hall of Fame Value Standard
    Win Shares WAR HoF Standard
    Babe Ruth 756 182.5 1486.0
    Barry Bonds 704 162.8 1355.2
    Ty Cobb 722 151.1 1326.3
    Cy Young 634 168.0 1305.8
    Willie Mays 642 156.4 1267.6

    Beltré’s combined score in the Value Standard is 755.8. The
    players most comparable to him in terms of Hall of Fame qualification are
    Carlton Fisk, Wade Boggs, Roberto Clemente, Gary Carter and Reggie Jackson.

    No player with comparable credentials has ever been denied Hall of Fame entry,
    other than those marked by scandal (such as Barry Bonds and Pete Rose).

    And Beltré stands up pretty well against the best third basemen of all-time.

    Leading HoF 3B – Hall of Fame Value Standard
    Win Shares WAR HoF Standard
    Mike Schmidt 467 106.8 894.2
    Eddie Mathews 450 96.6 836.6
    George Brett 432 88.6 786.6
    Wade Boggs 394 91.4 759.7
    Chipper Jones 416 85.2 756.8

    Beltré’s great defense

    Beltré’s other legacy is that of one of the best fielders at his
    position. He is the current leader in Defensive Runs Saved, a stat that began being compiled in 2003. From 2003 to 2018, Beltré totaled 222 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s 38 more than shortstop Andrelton Simmons for the most all-time and 108 more than Scott Rolen for the most as a third baseman.

    Three of the 12 best DRS seasons at third base belong to Beltré. No one else has more than one. He was still great there as he aged. He ranked in the top two in Defensive Runs Saved at the position in three of his last four seasons.

    Though Simmons will likely pass Beltré’s DRS total in the next couple of
    seasons, it will be awhile before anyone passes Beltré as the top third
    basemen. Nolan Arenado is the closest active third baseman with 109 DRS. Beltré’s
    legacy of greatness will be long lasting.

     

  • Stat of the Week: A look at NFL and NBA Power Ratings

    With the baseball postseason over, it’s time to immerse ourselves in the NFL and NBA. If you haven’t paid close attention to this point, or are just curious for some interesting analysis, the Bill James Online Power Ratings are here to help.

    NFL

    Bill James Online Power Ratings
    Team
    1. Saints 111.7
    2. Chiefs 110.9
    3. Rams 110.2
    4. Steelers 109.5
    5. Ravens 108.5

    The top NFL team by the power ratings is the New Orleans Saints, who edge out the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens round out the Top 5 overall. The Power Ratings are intended to show how many points above (or below) average that a team is to that point in the season. The NFL Power Ratings use 100 as a baseline, so the Saints would be 11.7 points better than the average team.

    The 8-1 Saints have eight straight wins, including two wins over Top-5 teams. They’ve beaten the Ravens on the road and the Rams at home. They’ll face the struggling defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday. Drew Brees is playing like an MVP with 21 touchdown passes and only one interception.

    The Chiefs have looked ultra-impressive thanks largely to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, whose first season as a starter has been a record-setting one. His 31 touchdown passes are a Chiefs single-season record.

    Rams running back Todd Gurley may have something to say about Brees’ and Mahomes’ MVP candidacies. He leads the NFL with 988 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and 17 touchdowns overall. Gurley has a chance to be the first player to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored in consecutive seasons since Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks in 2004 and 2005.

    NBA

    Bill James Online Power Ratings
    Team
    1. Bucks 214.9
    2. Trail Blazers 209.8
    3. Warriors 207.8
    4. Clippers 206.9
    5. Raptors 206.8

    (Note that the NBA uses 200 as a baseline. The Bucks are 14.9 points better than the average team).

    The early surprise in the NBA’s Power Ratings (which are based entirely on this season’s performance) is that there are two teams ahead of the Golden State Warriors — the Milwaukee Bucks are No. 1 and the Portland Trail Blazers are No. 2.

    Both the Bucks and Trail Blazers are 10-3. The Bucks have shown their mettle by beating the Raptors (No. 5 in our rankings) by 15 and the Warriors by 23, though they’ve lost to both the Clippers (No. 4 in our rankings) and the Trail Blazers. The addition of Brook Lopez has boosted a Bucks team that leads the NBA in three-pointers made and is averaging 121.6 points per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25 points and 13 rebounds to lead the way for them.

    Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and the Trail Blazers are trying to bounce back from a disappointing finish to last season when they got swept by the Pelicans in the first round of the playoffs. They’ve won three straight games against prominent teams — the Bucks, Clippers and Celtics– to wrap up a six-game homestand.

    Up next is six straight on the road, including back-to-back games to close the trip against the Bucks and Warriors. Their next home game is against the Clippers on Nov. 25.

    The power ratings will be worth checking again at that point to see whether the Trail Blazers have the staying power to remain among the league’s top teams.

    If you want to keep up with the Power Ratings, you can follow them with a subscription to Bill James Online.

  • Stat of the week: Who are the best defensive free agents?

    By MARK SIMON

    Baseball moves quickly these days. Free agency is already upon us, with some highly-coveted names in this year’s market. But who are the free agents who will be most coveted for their defense?

    Thirty-year-old second baseman DJ LeMahieu won his third career Gold Glove (he finished a close second to Kolten Wong in the Fielding Bible Awards after winning that honor in 2017). LeMahieu’s offense is somewhat enhanced by his playing in Coors Field, where he’s a .329 career hitter. But his defense is not aided by his home ballpark. It is good wherever he plays.

    LeMahieu’s 18 Defensive Runs Saved trailed only Wong’s 19 at second base this season. His 26 DRS over the last two seasons are easily the most at the position. LeMahieu’s best attribute is his consistency. He’s finished with a positive Runs Saved total at second base in each of the last eight seasons.

    His range and positioning rating has consistently been above average, with 2018 being his best season at covering the first base-second base hole. His biggest statistical weakness used to be double-play conversion, but he’s made that a strength, converting a career-high 72 percent of opportunities this season. And he rarely makes a mistake. His 1.1 Defensive Misplays & Errors per 100 innings rated best at the position in 2018.

    LeMahieu grew up near Detroit, and he’d be a good fit for the Tigers, who could move utility man Niko Goodrum to another position to accommodate LeMahieu. The Tigers finished league-average in DRS at second base this season.

    LeMahieu was one of two free agent second basemen who saved at least 10 runs last season. The other is Ian Kinsler, who won a Gold Glove and a World Series ring in 2018. Don’t let that error from Game 3 of the World Series make you think Kinsler’s lost his touch. He saved 10 runs for the Angels and Red Sox last season. Kinsler’s range is down a little from his best days, but that’s expected given that he’s 36 years old. It was still pretty good last season. His double-play conversion rate was the second highest of his career. Kinsler may not have much left with the bat, but his glove stands out. He has a 10-year streak of positive Runs Saved totals.

    Catcher Jeff Mathis won a Fielding Bible Award for outstanding work behind the plate, despite playing only a little more than 500 innings. He saved 17 runs with his defense last season, the most of any catcher. Mathis will be 36 next season and his offensive contributions are minimal. In fact, his .564 OPS is the lowest among active players with at least 2,000 plate appearances … by 67 points.

    However, the value of his glove can make up for that deficiency. Mathis has a great history as a pitch-framer and led the majors in blocking rate of potential wild pitches. He’s a fit for a team looking for a part-timer to help a young catcher, or with a contending team that has good hitters and can afford to carry his bat. The teams that fared worst in DRS for catchers last season were the Mets, Phillies and Reds in the National League, and the White Sox, Rangers and Athletics in the American League.

  • Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards Preview Part II

    This is the second of a two-part series on the top candidates for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced next week. Part I can be found here.

    The Fielding Bible Awards are voted on by a panel of 12 experts, who can vote based on visual observations and subjective judgement, as well as statistical analysis.

    Part II of our preview looks at outfielders, pitchers and multi-position players.

    (Defensive Runs Saved total in parentheses)
    Left Fielders
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Alex Gordon (18), Adam Duvall (17)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Adam Duvall
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Alex Gordon
    Other top contenders: Corey Dickerson (16), Brett Gardner (8)

    Alex Gordon and Brett Gardner have each won this award three times, and it looks like Gordon has the edge this season. Gordon looked a lot like his old self this season, particularly in June when he was named Co-Defensive Player of the Month. The combination of being able to cover a lot of ground and deter baserunner advancement with his throws was what differentiated him this season.

    Duvall was again a standout, primarily with the Reds, as his playing time was minimal after being traded to the Braves. He’ll battle for the NL Gold Glove with one of the league’s most improved defenders, Corey Dickerson of the Pirates, who went from costing his team a run with his defense in 2017 to saving 16 runs in 2018.

    Center Fielders
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Lorenzo Cain (20), Ender Inciarte (17)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Lorenzo Cain
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Mike Trout (8)
    Other top contenders: Kevin Kiermaier (14), Jake Marisnick (12), Delino DeShields (9)

    No center fielder has won back-to-back Fielding Bible Awards in its 13-year history. The 2018 winner will prolong that trend, as 2017 winner Byron Buxton played only 28 games with the Twins in 2018. Buxton’s loss is Lorenzo Cain’s gain, as he’s the favorite thanks to an 11-run improvement in limiting baserunner advancement from 2017 to 2018 (from costing his team six runs to saving them five). Ender Inciarte of the Braves, who saved the most runs with his positioning and range in center field, will be a formidable foe.

    Note that there is a differentiation in terms of playing time between Fielding Bible Awards rules and Gold Glove Awards rules . As a result, Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays is ineligible for a Gold Glove. Among those eligible, Mike Trout and his 14-run improvement in Defensive Runs Saved from 2017 to 2018 should have a good chance to win.

    Right Fielders
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Mookie Betts (20), Aaron Judge (14)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Yasiel Puig (6)
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Mookie Betts
    Other top contenders: Mitch Haniger (9), Carlos Gomez (8)

    If the Red Sox take Mookie Betts out of right field during the World Series, they’ll be moving the Defensive Runs Saved leader at the position, one who has a chance to win his third straight Fielding Bible Award in right field. Betts’ combination of everything, including two home run robberies (one shy of the MLB lead), put him atop the pack. Aaron Judge might have had a better chance to dethrone Betts had injuries not limited him to 90 games at the position.

    The NL Gold Glove race will be interesting here. Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers has the best numbers of anyone eligible, though Jason Heyward of the Cubs (3 DRS) certainly merits consideration.

    Pitchers
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Zack Greinke (7), Julio Teheran (7), Masahiro Tanaka (7)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Zack Greinke
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Luis Severino (4)
    Other top contenders: Patrick Corbin (6), Clayton Richard (5)

    Pitcher is always a challenging position to vote on due to limited sample size. This may be the year that four-time Fielding Bible Award winer Dallas Keuchel gets dethroned, as he finished with only 3 DRS. Zack Greinke of the Diamondbacks probably has a slight edge over Julio Teheran and Masahiro Tanaka here because of both his reputation (four Gold Glove Awards) and standout performance (for example, he allowed only two stolen bases in seven attempts). Diamondbacks pitchers were a model of fielding excellence, as Greinke’s teammate Patrick Corbin is also a legitimate contender.

    Note again that the AL Gold Glove choice of Yankees pitcher Luis Severino is due to innings requirements that denied Tanaka consideration.

    Multi-Position
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Javier Baez (10), Harrison Bader (19)
    Other top contenders: JaCoby Jones (21), Joey Wendle (5)

    Any time BIS writes about middle-infield defense on either Twitter or atThe Athletic, readers write to sing the praises of Cubs utility infielder Javier Baez, who may not have the most impressive DRS numbers, but who looks the part of the top defender. Baez led non-first basemen in Good Fielding Plays, whether they be showing off his range, tagging, or throwing skills.

    Baez does have good competition this year, particularly from outfielders Harrison Bader of the Cardinals and JaCoby Jones of the Tigers. Jones led all outfielders in DRS this season, splitting his time between center and left. Bader was another who looked the part of the great defender with solid play in center and right. He finished two runs off the outfield lead.