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Category: John Dewan’s Stat of the Week

  • Stat of the Week: A Statistical View of the College Football Playoff Field

    The College Football Playoff field is set: the semifinal games on December 29 will feature No. 1 Alabama against No. 4 Oklahoma, and No. 2 Clemson against No. 3 Notre Dame.

    All four teams have had interesting storylines at quarterback, while also dominating in other facets of the game. Using Sports Info Solutions’ advanced metrics and charting data, let’s take a brief look at each team’s success this season.

    No. 1 Alabama

    Tua Tagovailoa burst onto the scene in last year’s National Championship when he replaced Jalen Hurts and led the Crimson Tide over Georgia. Retaining the starting job this year, Tua has not disappointed. He ranks second in the nation in our Independent Quarterback Rating* (IQR) metric, behind the quarterback Alabama will face in the semifinal: Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray.

    Yet it was Hurts who played the hero in last weekend’s SEC championship victory after replacing an injured Tagovailoa. It’s worth noting that Hurts has done well himself this season, completing 50 of 67 passes and posting a 139.6 IQR—right behind Tagovailoa when considering quarterbacks who have attempted 50 or more passes in 2018.

    Best IQR Among QB with 50+ Attempts
    Player School IQR
    Kyler Murray Oklahoma 147.9
    Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 143.1
    Jalen Hurts Alabama 139.6
    Jake Fromm Georgia 134.2
    Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 131.2

    Alabama has been arguably the best team at throwing the ball deep. On 56 throws of 20-plus yards, they have completed 35 of them and scored 16 touchdowns. On a per-attempt basis, those marks are the best in college football.

    The talented Jerry Jeudy has been the preferred target at wide receiver. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, he ranks third with 12.3 yards per target and fifth with a 134.9 Receiver Rating (which is traditional passer rating on targets).

    No. 2 Clemson

    Trevor Lawrence has excelled since taking over for Kelly Bryant at quarterback. The true freshman has picked apart man coverages; his 137.8 IQR in such situations ranks fourth behind Tagovailoa, Fromm, and Murray.

    Beyond Lawrence, Clemson dominates the running game on both sides of the ball. The defense has allowed 2.1 yards per rush attempt (YPA), the best mark in the nation. With draft prospects Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence on the interior of the defensive line, the Tigers are a force up the middle. Clemson has surrendered only 1.9 yards per attempt on inside runs. Every other FBS team has allowed at least 3 YPA on such plays.

    Offensively, Travis Etienne picks up the bulk of the carries and has been one of the best rushers on a per-attempt basis, averaging 8.3 YPA. Along with Memphis’ Darrell Henderson and Florida Atlantic’s Devin Singletary, Etienne is one of three players with more than 20 rushing touchdowns on the season.

    No. 3 Notre Dame

    Like Alabama and Clemson, a change at quarterback was a major storyline for the Fighting Irish. Through Week 3, Brandon Wimbush registered just a 54.0 IQR, which ranked 117th out of the 122 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts to that point.

    Since taking over the starting job, Ian Book’s 107.2 IQR ranks among the top 30 nationally. Notre Dame gained accuracy in the passing game with the transition, with Book’s 70 percent completion rate signifying a considerable improvement over Wimbush’s 53 percent rate.

    Pass defense has been similarly important. The Irish pass rush leads the country in quarterback hurries, just ahead of college football’s other contenders. Defensive end Julian Okwara ranks among the top ten nationally with 39 hurries, while tackle Jerry Tillery and end Khalid Kareem have contributed 30 and 26, respectively.

    Most QB Hurries
    School Hurries
    Notre Dame 187
    Alabama 186
    Clemson 175
    Ohio State 172

    No. 4 Oklahoma

    Leading the nation with a 147.9 IQR, Kyler Murray has been outstanding as the successor to Baker Mayfield. Murray has been particularly dynamic outside of the pocket; among signal callers with at least 25 attempts in those situations, his 146.3 IQR, 16 percent touchdown rate, and 10.4 yards per attempt all lead the country. He can also push the ball downfield with accuracy, ranking third in on-target percentage on throws of 20 or more yards.

    Murray’s primary targets are Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb, who rank first and second, respectively, in yards per target (among receivers with at least 75 targets on the season).

    Despite losing running back Rodney Anderson to a season-ending injury, Oklahoma’s ground game has remained solid with Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks. As a team, the Sooners are among the best at breaking tackles (ranking second with a total of 143) and rushing to the outside (ranking second with an average of 8.1 YPA).

    * Independent Quarterback Rating is Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric. It builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by accounting for results that are outside of the quarterback’s control – dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. – to form a better benchmark of QB value.

  • Stat of the week: Adrián Beltré’s Excellence

    Adrián Beltré’s highly-successful MLB career ended last week when he announced his
    retirement after 21 seasons and more than 2,900 games.

    Beltré’s career began at age 19, but it took off in 2004 when he hit .334/.388/.629 with
    48 home runs. That launched a career that finished with 477 home runs and 1,707 RBIs. He was a four-time Silver Slugger Award winner and a four-time Fielding Bible Award winner. His
    373 career Win Shares rank sixth among those whose primary position was third
    base (Mike Schmidt ranks first with 467).

    Bill James devised a Hall of Fame Value Standard system that evaluates player
    greatness, combining Win Shares and four times Baseball-Reference.com’s Wins Above Replacement. A full explanation can be found in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook. Here are the top five players of all-time per that system.

    Top 5 Players – Hall of Fame Value Standard
    Win Shares WAR HoF Standard
    Babe Ruth 756 182.5 1486.0
    Barry Bonds 704 162.8 1355.2
    Ty Cobb 722 151.1 1326.3
    Cy Young 634 168.0 1305.8
    Willie Mays 642 156.4 1267.6

    Beltré’s combined score in the Value Standard is 755.8. The
    players most comparable to him in terms of Hall of Fame qualification are
    Carlton Fisk, Wade Boggs, Roberto Clemente, Gary Carter and Reggie Jackson.

    No player with comparable credentials has ever been denied Hall of Fame entry,
    other than those marked by scandal (such as Barry Bonds and Pete Rose).

    And Beltré stands up pretty well against the best third basemen of all-time.

    Leading HoF 3B – Hall of Fame Value Standard
    Win Shares WAR HoF Standard
    Mike Schmidt 467 106.8 894.2
    Eddie Mathews 450 96.6 836.6
    George Brett 432 88.6 786.6
    Wade Boggs 394 91.4 759.7
    Chipper Jones 416 85.2 756.8

    Beltré’s great defense

    Beltré’s other legacy is that of one of the best fielders at his
    position. He is the current leader in Defensive Runs Saved, a stat that began being compiled in 2003. From 2003 to 2018, Beltré totaled 222 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s 38 more than shortstop Andrelton Simmons for the most all-time and 108 more than Scott Rolen for the most as a third baseman.

    Three of the 12 best DRS seasons at third base belong to Beltré. No one else has more than one. He was still great there as he aged. He ranked in the top two in Defensive Runs Saved at the position in three of his last four seasons.

    Though Simmons will likely pass Beltré’s DRS total in the next couple of
    seasons, it will be awhile before anyone passes Beltré as the top third
    basemen. Nolan Arenado is the closest active third baseman with 109 DRS. Beltré’s
    legacy of greatness will be long lasting.

     

  • Stat of the Week: A look at NFL and NBA Power Ratings

    With the baseball postseason over, it’s time to immerse ourselves in the NFL and NBA. If you haven’t paid close attention to this point, or are just curious for some interesting analysis, the Bill James Online Power Ratings are here to help.

    NFL

    Bill James Online Power Ratings
    Team
    1. Saints 111.7
    2. Chiefs 110.9
    3. Rams 110.2
    4. Steelers 109.5
    5. Ravens 108.5

    The top NFL team by the power ratings is the New Orleans Saints, who edge out the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens round out the Top 5 overall. The Power Ratings are intended to show how many points above (or below) average that a team is to that point in the season. The NFL Power Ratings use 100 as a baseline, so the Saints would be 11.7 points better than the average team.

    The 8-1 Saints have eight straight wins, including two wins over Top-5 teams. They’ve beaten the Ravens on the road and the Rams at home. They’ll face the struggling defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday. Drew Brees is playing like an MVP with 21 touchdown passes and only one interception.

    The Chiefs have looked ultra-impressive thanks largely to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, whose first season as a starter has been a record-setting one. His 31 touchdown passes are a Chiefs single-season record.

    Rams running back Todd Gurley may have something to say about Brees’ and Mahomes’ MVP candidacies. He leads the NFL with 988 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and 17 touchdowns overall. Gurley has a chance to be the first player to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored in consecutive seasons since Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks in 2004 and 2005.

    NBA

    Bill James Online Power Ratings
    Team
    1. Bucks 214.9
    2. Trail Blazers 209.8
    3. Warriors 207.8
    4. Clippers 206.9
    5. Raptors 206.8

    (Note that the NBA uses 200 as a baseline. The Bucks are 14.9 points better than the average team).

    The early surprise in the NBA’s Power Ratings (which are based entirely on this season’s performance) is that there are two teams ahead of the Golden State Warriors — the Milwaukee Bucks are No. 1 and the Portland Trail Blazers are No. 2.

    Both the Bucks and Trail Blazers are 10-3. The Bucks have shown their mettle by beating the Raptors (No. 5 in our rankings) by 15 and the Warriors by 23, though they’ve lost to both the Clippers (No. 4 in our rankings) and the Trail Blazers. The addition of Brook Lopez has boosted a Bucks team that leads the NBA in three-pointers made and is averaging 121.6 points per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25 points and 13 rebounds to lead the way for them.

    Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and the Trail Blazers are trying to bounce back from a disappointing finish to last season when they got swept by the Pelicans in the first round of the playoffs. They’ve won three straight games against prominent teams — the Bucks, Clippers and Celtics– to wrap up a six-game homestand.

    Up next is six straight on the road, including back-to-back games to close the trip against the Bucks and Warriors. Their next home game is against the Clippers on Nov. 25.

    The power ratings will be worth checking again at that point to see whether the Trail Blazers have the staying power to remain among the league’s top teams.

    If you want to keep up with the Power Ratings, you can follow them with a subscription to Bill James Online.

  • Stat of the week: Who are the best defensive free agents?

    By MARK SIMON

    Baseball moves quickly these days. Free agency is already upon us, with some highly-coveted names in this year’s market. But who are the free agents who will be most coveted for their defense?

    Thirty-year-old second baseman DJ LeMahieu won his third career Gold Glove (he finished a close second to Kolten Wong in the Fielding Bible Awards after winning that honor in 2017). LeMahieu’s offense is somewhat enhanced by his playing in Coors Field, where he’s a .329 career hitter. But his defense is not aided by his home ballpark. It is good wherever he plays.

    LeMahieu’s 18 Defensive Runs Saved trailed only Wong’s 19 at second base this season. His 26 DRS over the last two seasons are easily the most at the position. LeMahieu’s best attribute is his consistency. He’s finished with a positive Runs Saved total at second base in each of the last eight seasons.

    His range and positioning rating has consistently been above average, with 2018 being his best season at covering the first base-second base hole. His biggest statistical weakness used to be double-play conversion, but he’s made that a strength, converting a career-high 72 percent of opportunities this season. And he rarely makes a mistake. His 1.1 Defensive Misplays & Errors per 100 innings rated best at the position in 2018.

    LeMahieu grew up near Detroit, and he’d be a good fit for the Tigers, who could move utility man Niko Goodrum to another position to accommodate LeMahieu. The Tigers finished league-average in DRS at second base this season.

    LeMahieu was one of two free agent second basemen who saved at least 10 runs last season. The other is Ian Kinsler, who won a Gold Glove and a World Series ring in 2018. Don’t let that error from Game 3 of the World Series make you think Kinsler’s lost his touch. He saved 10 runs for the Angels and Red Sox last season. Kinsler’s range is down a little from his best days, but that’s expected given that he’s 36 years old. It was still pretty good last season. His double-play conversion rate was the second highest of his career. Kinsler may not have much left with the bat, but his glove stands out. He has a 10-year streak of positive Runs Saved totals.

    Catcher Jeff Mathis won a Fielding Bible Award for outstanding work behind the plate, despite playing only a little more than 500 innings. He saved 17 runs with his defense last season, the most of any catcher. Mathis will be 36 next season and his offensive contributions are minimal. In fact, his .564 OPS is the lowest among active players with at least 2,000 plate appearances … by 67 points.

    However, the value of his glove can make up for that deficiency. Mathis has a great history as a pitch-framer and led the majors in blocking rate of potential wild pitches. He’s a fit for a team looking for a part-timer to help a young catcher, or with a contending team that has good hitters and can afford to carry his bat. The teams that fared worst in DRS for catchers last season were the Mets, Phillies and Reds in the National League, and the White Sox, Rangers and Athletics in the American League.

  • Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards Preview Part II

    This is the second of a two-part series on the top candidates for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced next week. Part I can be found here.

    The Fielding Bible Awards are voted on by a panel of 12 experts, who can vote based on visual observations and subjective judgement, as well as statistical analysis.

    Part II of our preview looks at outfielders, pitchers and multi-position players.

    (Defensive Runs Saved total in parentheses)
    Left Fielders
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Alex Gordon (18), Adam Duvall (17)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Adam Duvall
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Alex Gordon
    Other top contenders: Corey Dickerson (16), Brett Gardner (8)

    Alex Gordon and Brett Gardner have each won this award three times, and it looks like Gordon has the edge this season. Gordon looked a lot like his old self this season, particularly in June when he was named Co-Defensive Player of the Month. The combination of being able to cover a lot of ground and deter baserunner advancement with his throws was what differentiated him this season.

    Duvall was again a standout, primarily with the Reds, as his playing time was minimal after being traded to the Braves. He’ll battle for the NL Gold Glove with one of the league’s most improved defenders, Corey Dickerson of the Pirates, who went from costing his team a run with his defense in 2017 to saving 16 runs in 2018.

    Center Fielders
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Lorenzo Cain (20), Ender Inciarte (17)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Lorenzo Cain
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Mike Trout (8)
    Other top contenders: Kevin Kiermaier (14), Jake Marisnick (12), Delino DeShields (9)

    No center fielder has won back-to-back Fielding Bible Awards in its 13-year history. The 2018 winner will prolong that trend, as 2017 winner Byron Buxton played only 28 games with the Twins in 2018. Buxton’s loss is Lorenzo Cain’s gain, as he’s the favorite thanks to an 11-run improvement in limiting baserunner advancement from 2017 to 2018 (from costing his team six runs to saving them five). Ender Inciarte of the Braves, who saved the most runs with his positioning and range in center field, will be a formidable foe.

    Note that there is a differentiation in terms of playing time between Fielding Bible Awards rules and Gold Glove Awards rules . As a result, Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays is ineligible for a Gold Glove. Among those eligible, Mike Trout and his 14-run improvement in Defensive Runs Saved from 2017 to 2018 should have a good chance to win.

    Right Fielders
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Mookie Betts (20), Aaron Judge (14)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Yasiel Puig (6)
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Mookie Betts
    Other top contenders: Mitch Haniger (9), Carlos Gomez (8)

    If the Red Sox take Mookie Betts out of right field during the World Series, they’ll be moving the Defensive Runs Saved leader at the position, one who has a chance to win his third straight Fielding Bible Award in right field. Betts’ combination of everything, including two home run robberies (one shy of the MLB lead), put him atop the pack. Aaron Judge might have had a better chance to dethrone Betts had injuries not limited him to 90 games at the position.

    The NL Gold Glove race will be interesting here. Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers has the best numbers of anyone eligible, though Jason Heyward of the Cubs (3 DRS) certainly merits consideration.

    Pitchers
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Zack Greinke (7), Julio Teheran (7), Masahiro Tanaka (7)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Zack Greinke
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Luis Severino (4)
    Other top contenders: Patrick Corbin (6), Clayton Richard (5)

    Pitcher is always a challenging position to vote on due to limited sample size. This may be the year that four-time Fielding Bible Award winer Dallas Keuchel gets dethroned, as he finished with only 3 DRS. Zack Greinke of the Diamondbacks probably has a slight edge over Julio Teheran and Masahiro Tanaka here because of both his reputation (four Gold Glove Awards) and standout performance (for example, he allowed only two stolen bases in seven attempts). Diamondbacks pitchers were a model of fielding excellence, as Greinke’s teammate Patrick Corbin is also a legitimate contender.

    Note again that the AL Gold Glove choice of Yankees pitcher Luis Severino is due to innings requirements that denied Tanaka consideration.

    Multi-Position
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Javier Baez (10), Harrison Bader (19)
    Other top contenders: JaCoby Jones (21), Joey Wendle (5)

    Any time BIS writes about middle-infield defense on either Twitter or atThe Athletic, readers write to sing the praises of Cubs utility infielder Javier Baez, who may not have the most impressive DRS numbers, but who looks the part of the top defender. Baez led non-first basemen in Good Fielding Plays, whether they be showing off his range, tagging, or throwing skills.

    Baez does have good competition this year, particularly from outfielders Harrison Bader of the Cardinals and JaCoby Jones of the Tigers. Jones led all outfielders in DRS this season, splitting his time between center and left. Bader was another who looked the part of the great defender with solid play in center and right. He finished two runs off the outfield lead.

  • Stat of the Week: 2018 Fielding Bible Awards Preview

    For the next two weeks, this space will feature a multi-part series on the top candidates for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced the week of October 29.

    The Fielding Bible Awards are voted on by a panel of 12 experts, who can vote based on visual observation and subjective judgement, as well statistical analysis.

    This week, Part I of our preview looks at catchers and infielders.

    (DRS totals in parentheses)

    Catcher
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Jeff Mathis (17), Mike Zunino (12)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Austin Hedges (12)
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Salvador Perez (1)
    Other top contenders: Sandy Leon (12), Tony Wolters (12)

    What’s fascinating about the catcher leaderboard for Defensive Runs Saved this season is that it is mostly (though not entirely) composed of part-time players who excel at pitch-framing. At the top of that list is Diamondbacks catcher Jeff Mathis, who led the position by saving 17 runs in just over 500 innings, due not only to his pitch-framing, but also to his pitch-blocking. Mathis was part of a three-catcher unit, all of whom excelled on the defensive side.

    Others who fit the description of part-timers who can frame include Sandy Leon of the Red Sox and Tony Wolters of the Rockies. The AL Gold Glove Award could be a tight race between Mike Zunino of the Mariners, who had a strong year in both framing and thwarting basestealers, and Salvador Perez, whose penchant for basestealing deterrence has helped him win four Gold Gloves in the past.

    Last year’s Fielding Bible Award winner, Martin Maldonado, finished with 3 DRS, 14 back of the MLB lead.

    First Baseman
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Matt Olson (14), Brandon Belt (13)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Eric Hosmer (8)
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Matt Olson
    Other top contenders: Freddie Freeman (12), Joey Votto (9)

    The Bay Area is the home of the two first basemen who led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved. Matt Olson of the Athletics finished with 14. Brandon Belt dealt with injuries for the Giants but still managed to save 13 runs, one fewer than Olson in 530 fewer innings. Belt may have the most range of any first baseman, but Olson is not far behind, and is among the best at scooping throws.

    Within reach of them are Freddie Freeman of the Braves and Joey Votto of the Reds. Olson, Belt and those two are the four first basemen who saved at least 10 runs with their range and positioning. Eric Hosmer also had some of the best numbers of his career at first base. He will be bidding for his fifth Gold Glove.

    Second Baseman 
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Kolten Wong (19), DJ LeMahieu (18)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Javier Baez (5)
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Ian Kinsler (10)
    Other top contenders: Whit Merrifield (8), Ozzie Albies (8)

    If nothing else Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong should win most improved defensive player. He jumped from costing his team a run with his defense in 2017 to saving it a major league-best at the position 19 in 2018. Wong isn’t as flashy as some other candidates, but he was solid and reliable in covering ground. Same for last year’s winner, DJ LeMahieu of the Rockies, who played virtually mistake-free all season in finishing with 18 DRS, one behind Wong.

    Javier Baez of the Cubs doesn’t have a comparable Runs Saved total, but is held in high regard by many for his ability to do the amazing. He led non-first basemen in Good Fielding Plays. Ian Kinsler, who split the season between the Angels and Red Sox, also had a solid season, though he’s a notch below Wong and LeMahieu in overall performance. He’ll be a top contender for an AL Gold Glove, which would be the second of his career.

    Shortstop Fielding Bible Favorites: Andrelton Simmons (21), Nick Ahmed (21)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Nick Ahmed
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Andrelton Simmons
    Other top contenders: Francisco Lindor (14), Paul DeJong (14)

    Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons entered this season having won five straight Fielding Bible Awards, and given that he tied for the MLB lead with 21 Defensive Runs Saved, it’s likely he’s headed to a sixth. Simmons was his usual excellent self, covering ground to both sides with aplomb and tying for the MLB lead in Double Play Runs Saved.

    Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed, the player with whom Simmons tied, may give him a run for his money. Ahmed may have the best arm for a shortstop in the majors, which allows him to get outs from deep in the shortstop-third base hole that others cannot get. He was considerably better than his NL counterparts and should be a favorite for the Gold Glove, too.

    Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Paul DeJong of the Cardinals had good seasons. They’re just not in the same class as the two players at the top.

    Third Baseman
    Fielding Bible Favorites: Matt Chapman (29), Nolan Arenado (5)
    NL Gold Glove Favorite Nolan Arenado 
    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Matt Chapman 
    Other top contenders: Adrian Beltre (10), Travis Shaw (9)

    Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman led the majors with 29 Defensive Runs Saved. No other third baseman finished with more than 10. So it seems like he’s in position to dethrone three-time reigning Fielding Bible Award winner Nolan Arenado. Like Ahmed at shortstop, Chapman’s arm allows him to make plays that other third basemen can’t make — in his case, on balls hit down the third base line.

    Arenado had a down year in Runs Saved, tallying only five. But he was still a regular highlight-reel playmaker. His 45 Good Fielding Plays led the position and make him a favorite to win an NL Gold Glove. Let’s also give a salute to Adrian Beltre, who saved 10 runs in an injury-shortened season. He’s the leader in DRS since it was first compiled in 2003.

  • Stat of the Week: 2018 Defensive Runs Saved Leaders

    By Mark Simon

    With the 2018 regular season concluded, let’s look at the leaders in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman finished as the overall leader with 29. Chapman dominated all season, with his work being particularly outstanding on balls hit down the third base line. The next-closest third baseman in Runs Saved was Adrian Beltre with 10.

    It also helped Chapman that he had an excellent defender on the other side of the diamond to handle his throws. The leader there was his teammate, Matt Olson, with 14. With Olson and Chapman at the corners, the Athletics allowed only 20 ground-ball doubles, tied with the Red Sox for fewest in MLB.

    The outfield leader was a surprise — JaCoby Jones of the Tigers. Jones saved 21 runs, 11 in 55 games in left field and 10 in 67 games in center field. His 15 jumping catches (including a pair of HR robberies) tied for second in the majors behind Billy Hamilton’s 18.

    The DRS leaders at the individual outfield positions were (from left to right) Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Mookie Betts. Cain’s 20 Runs Saved were a career-high, with the key reason being an 11-run improvement from last season in his arm rating (from costing the Royals six runs to saving the Brewers five). Gordon and Betts each led their position for the third time in their careers, with Betts having done it each of the last three seasons.

    Andrelton Simmons was the co-leader at shortstop, joined by Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed. Simmons was a standout defender in both directions and tied for the MLB lead with four Double Play Runs Saved. Ahmed had his best season at the position, with his super-strong throwing arm helping him record the bulk of his Runs Saved on balls hit in the shortstop-third base hole. Kolten Wong of the Cardinals finished as the top second baseman. He had a 20-run improvement from 2017, finishing with 19 DRS.

    The Diamondbacks led MLB with 157 Runs Saved, so it’s not surprising the team had three positional leaders. Joining Ahmed is catcher Jeff Mathis, whose 17 Runs Saved in only 523 innings were five better than anyone else there. Also, pitcher Zack Greinke finished tied with Julio Teheran and Masahiro Tanaka with each saving his team seven runs. Mathis was Greinke’s personal catcher and helped him with outstanding numbers in both pitch framing (9 DRS, one shy of the MLB lead) and pitch-blocking (he led the majors with a 96.4 percent blocking success rate).

    Greinke, one of the better athletes among pitchers, will be trying for his first Fielding Bible Award. Those winners will be announced just after the conclusion of the World Series.

    2018 Defensive Runs Saved Leaders
    Position Name DRS
     C  Jeff Mathis 17
     1B  Matt Olson 14
     2B  Kolten Wong 20
     SS (tie)  Andrelton Simmons 21
     SS (tie)  Nick Ahmed 21
     3B  Matt Chapman 29
     LF  Alex Gordon 18
     CF  Lorenzo Cain 20
     RF  Mookie Betts 20
     OF (Overall)  JaCoby Jones 21
     P (tie)  Zack Greinke 7
     P (tie)  Julio Teheran 7
     P (tie)  Masahiro Tanaka 7
     Team  Diamondbacks 157

    —

    Let’s also note that September’s top defensive player is Giants third baseman Evan Longoria. The month represented a significant turnaround for Longoria, who struggled on defense early in the season, then was injured and missed 34 games from mid-June to late July.

    In September, Longoria performed like the player who had 11 Defensive Runs Saved last season and who saved an average of 13 runs defensively from 2008 to 2013. He finished with 9 Defensive Runs Saved for the month, pushing his season total from -3 to 6. His six Good Fielding Plays tied for the most of any third baseman. Longoria totaled five plays by either sliding, diving or jumping in September. He totaled eight for the season prior to that month.

    Defensive Players of the Month
    Month Player Team, Pos
    April Matt Chapman Athletics, 3B
    May Lorenzo Cain Brewers, CF
    June (tie) Trea Turner Nationals, SS
    June (tie) Alex Gordon Royals, LF
    July Keon Broxton Brewers, CF
    August Adam Engel White Sox, CF
    September Evan Longoria Giants, 3B

  • Stat of the Week: Minor League Defensive Runs Saved End-of-Season Roundup

    When a promising position player gets called up from the minors, you almost never hear about his defensive prospects unless they are extreme in one direction or the other. At Baseball Info Solutions, we use Minor League Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) as a tool to expand fans’ knowledge of the defensive side of the game.

    We track minor league DRS the same way we do in the majors, even comparing minor leaguers to the same baseline as their big league counterparts. With the 2018 minor league year completed, let’s look at the best of the best in Double-A and Triple-A. You’ll see the leaders at each position with their runs saved total at that position. To allow for comparison between players who are more likely to be future prospects, the leaders are split between ages 23 and younger and ages 24 and older.

    2018 Minor League DRS Leaders by Position, Ages 23 and Younger


    Pos
    Player, Organization
    Age
    Level
    DRS
    P Dedgar Jimenez, Bos 22 AA/AAA 5
    P Ranger Suarez, Phi 22 AA/AAA 5
    C Jake Rogers, Det 23 AA 18
    1B Bobby Bradley, Cle 22 AA/AAA 10
    2B Luis Urias, SD 21 AAA 13
    3B Mandy Alvarez, NYY 23 AA 9
    SS Andrew Velazquez, TB 23 AA/AAA 8
    LF Justin Williams, TB/StL 22 AAA 5
    CF Myles Straw, Hou 23 AAA 10
    RF Justin Williams, TB/StL 22 AAA 11

    Jake Rogers looks like a dominant performer on this list with 18 runs saved at catcher, but there are a couple guys competing with him when you consider their value across multiple positions. Luis Urias was the only minor leaguer to save at least three runs at three different positions this year (13 at 2B, 3 at 3B, 5 at SS). Justin Williams appears twice on the list, and is one of only three minor leaguers to save at least five runs at two different positions this year. Recent Astros callup Myles Straw has one carrying tool: his arm. He saved 9 of his 10 runs in center field with his arm alone.

    2018 Minor League DRS Leaders by Position, Ages 24 and Older


    Pos
    Player, Organization
    Age
    Level
    DRS
    P Mitch Talbot, Cle 34 AAA 10
    C Austin Allen, SD 24 AA 14
    C Rocky Gale, LAD 30 AAA 14
    1B Taylor Jones, Hou 24 AA/AAA 6
    2B Heiker Meneses, Phi 27 AA/AAA 8
    3B Josh Fuentes, Col 25 AAA 19
    SS Ildemaro Vargas, Ari 26 AAA 9
    SS Bengie Gonzalez, Was 28 AAA 9
    LF Andrew Guillotte, Tor 25 AA/AAA 9
    CF Jacob Hannemann, CHC 27 AAA 8
    RF Blake Drake, StL 24 AA 8

    This group is more of the Quad-A type that might get a cup of coffee or two in the majors but at this point in their careers are unlikely to make a true splash. The exception might be Josh Fuentes, who led the minors in Total Runs, which takes into account his hitting, fielding, and baserunning. But with his cousin Nolan Arenado (seriously) manning third base in Colorado, that splash may have to be at another position or with another organization. Rocky Gale and Andrew Guillotte had great defensive seasons thanks to excellence in one particular skill—Gale saved 13 runs with his pitch-framing, and Guillotte saved five in left field with his throwing arm. And I would be remiss not to mention Mitch Talbot, who led pitchers in DRS and held a 2.52 ERA in Triple-A after playing in independent ball and internationally from 2014-17.

    Other Notable
    Performances

    A couple of touted outfield prospects—Willie Calhoun of the Rangers and Raimel Tapia of the Rockies—sit towards the bottom of the minor league DRS list, with -29 and -30 respectively. Also in that neighborhood is Tim Tebow, whose broken hamate bone cut his season short after costing Binghamton 21 runs in the field.

    Of the top five prospects according to MLB Pipeline (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Nick Senzel, and Victor Robles), Nick Senzel of the Reds easily stands out as the best of the bunch defensively, saving four runs in only 42 games between second and third base. Jimenez falls lowest among that group, costing 13 runs in the outfield in less than two-thirds of a season.

     

  • Stat of the Week: Tommy John Surgery in Major League Baseball

    Stat of the Week: Tommy John Surgery in Major League Baseball

    This month, two of baseball’s promising young pitchers—Shohei Ohtani of the Angels and Michael Kopech of the White Sox—learned that they will likely need Tommy John surgery due to torn ulnar collateral ligaments in their throwing arms. While Ohtani remains in the Angels’ lineup as a hitter, Kopech’s debut season is over after fewer than 15 innings.

    In the 2018 Bill James Handbook, Sports Info Solutions added Tommy John surgery information for every pitcher who appeared in MLB in 2017, including surgery dates. This information will be updated for every 2018 pitcher in the upcoming 2019 Bill James Handbook as well. Did you know that several pitchers have undergone multiple Tommy John surgeries? For example, Oakland A’s reliever Shawn Kelley has had two surgeries—the first in 2003 and the second in 2010.

    More than 25 percent of the league’s pitchers in 2018 have undergone Tommy John surgery at some point in time. That’s a surprisingly high figure, demonstrating how common the procedure is, as well as how pitchers have been successfully able to pitch in the majors after the surgery.

    Over the past three years, just under 20 additional MLB pitchers per year have had the surgery. There are also typically about one to three Tommy John procedures for MLB position players each season, such as the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Mets’ Travis d’Arnaud in 2018.

    TJS

    Among the pitchers who have returned to the Major League level after the surgery, the average return time is about 19 months, while the median is 16 months. Long recovery times skew these results; the most common returns are 12 and 13 months.

    However, not every pitcher returns from the operation—for example, former relievers Joel Hanrahan and Joel Zumaya. More than 20 percent of MLB pitchers who had Tommy John in 2016 or earlier did not return to the majors after the surgery.

    We also looked at how velocity changes after Tommy John surgery compared to before, considering fastballs thrown one year prior to the surgery date and one year following the return date for pitchers who returned to the same role (starter or reliever).

    Of the 156 pitchers in our sample, 96 had a lower average fastball velocity in the year after their return. The median increase among velocity gainers was about 0.6 miles per hour, while the median decrease among decliners was about minus-1 mile per hour. The declines may not be entirely attributable to the surgery, of course; pitchers tend to lose velocity steadily with age.

    That said, players who are younger at the time of surgery are more likely to gain velocity when they return. Of the 94 players who were 28 years old or younger, 43 saw their velocity increase (46 percent). Of the 62 players who were older than 28, 17 saw their velocity increase (27 percent).

    Baseball researcher Jon Roegele’s publicly-shared Tommy John Surgery List is an invaluable resource that aids Sports Info Solutions in the collection of Tommy John data.

  • Stat of the Week: Who was August’s top defensive player?

    In a crowded group of highly-talented center fielders, it has been tough for Adam Engel to stand out from the rest. But in August he did. He’s our selection as the MLB Defensive Player of the Month.

    Engel finished the month with eight Defensive Runs Saved, the most by any outfielder. Half of that total was accumulated from three amazing home run robberies in a seven-day span. Engel snagged one from Greg Bird on Aug. 6, Kyle Higashioka the next day and Yonder Alonso on Aug. 12. He’s the first player in the 15 seasons for which we’ve tracked home run robberies to have three in a week’s span. His three home run robberies are the most of anyone in the majors this season.

    Engel has saved six runs this season after costing his team a run in center field in his rookie season, 2017. One change to his defensive game is that he’s playing deeper this year. Engel was usually the shallowest playing outfielder or close to it in the various AL ballparks last season, but he’s moved back eight to 12 feet in most parks. That may have given him a better chance at those would-be home runs.

    Engel is not typically a leaper – he has only four jumping catches all season (by contrast, Billy Hamilton has 16), but he is a sprinter. His 57 sprinting catches trail only Ender Inciarte’s 72 for most in MLB by a center fielder.

    Engel has also made improvements in his arm rating. Last season, he allowed 54 percent of runners to advance an extra-base on hits, and recorded only one unaided outfield assist (without a cutoff man). The advance rate against him is similar this season, but he has three unaided assists.

    The runner-up for the August award was Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, a defensive standard-setter, whose 89 DRS are the most in the majors from 2015 to 2017. For Engel to beat Kiermaier out, you know he really earned the award.