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  • State of the Steel Curtain: Paid To Be The Best, Still Getting There

    State of the Steel Curtain: Paid To Be The Best, Still Getting There

    Photo: Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire

    The Steelers are sitting at a surprise 4-1 and leading the AFC North after the first 6 weeks of the season. This is even more of a surprise when considering the subpar performance on defense the first two weeks, allowing 32 points on 394 yards to the Jets and 31 points (24 on offense) on 395 yards to the Seahawks.

    At a cool $163.1 million, the Steelers defense is the highest paid in the league by $23 million. At that price tag, relinquishing 30 points in back-to-back games to start the season is unacceptable.

    Since then, this unit has been able to rebound and only allowed 14, 21, and 9 points over the last 3 games. After struggling in both the run and pass phases the first two weeks, it has been able to settle in just in time for a stretch in which the team will see a string of potent offenses (leaving a Joe Flacco-led Bengals offense to your imagination).

    How exactly has the defense improved? Will it be sustainable against better competition? Is the Steel Curtain back? Only one of these is a definitive no, but let’s dive into the former two.

    Looking at things from a personnel perspective, the Steelers defense has primarily utilized three groupings. However, the allowed success rates vary drastically.

    Personnel Grouping Usage % Usage Rank Success % Success Rank
    3-3-5 30% 9 57% 31
    2-4-5 29% 14 40% 8
    3-4-4 27% 5 41% 15

    Obviously, the 3-3-5 has yielded the worst results. This the result of the pass defense, which has allowed a 58% success rate in this grouping, the 4th worst in the league. This result is in stark contrast when compared to the 2-4-5 in which the Steelers defense allows a 33% success rate against the pass, which is good for 5th in the league.

    When looking at men in the box, the Steelers may want to consider simplifying things a bit.

    Men in Box Usage % Usage Rank Success % Success Rank
    7-Man 25% 25 34% 1
    Light (< 7) 49% 16 54% 32
    Stacked (> 7) 26% 8 48% 26

    The Steelers have the most success in the league when operating out of a 7-man box. They are the worst and 7th-worst when operating out of a light and stacked box, respectively. This is not lopsided either in regards to the run or the pass, as they are 1st and 5th out of a 7-man box and 2nd- and 4th-worst with a light box in success rate allowed against the run and pass, respectively. Essentially, adding in the extra defensive back has not yielded the dividends that they hoped to get thus far.

    Last season, the Steelers blitzed at a 25% clip, the 15th-highest rate in the league. So far in 2025, they are at a 35% rate which is the 3rd-highest in the league. Not only are they blitzing more, but they are also playing man coverage 39% of the time, the 7th-highest rate.

    Yes, Blitzburgh might be back, but this isn’t the zone blitz that legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau utilized time and time again with the great defenses of the early 2000s. Adding veteran corners Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay to the fold has allowed the defense to bring the heat and put those guys on islands against guys like Justin Jefferson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And Joey Porter Jr. has recently come back from injury and will play into the mix going forward.  

    Overall, the Steelers are pressuring the quarterback at a 39% rate, the 10th-highest in the league. When bringing the blitz, they are getting pressure 55% of the time, good for 6th. When bringing the standard 4-man pass rush, that number drops to 30%, only the 22nd-best.

    So far, T.J. Watt has been solid, but has not produced to his standard Defensive Player of the  Year type numbers. He ranks 18th in pressures with 21 and his 3.5 sacks are tied for 23rd. He has a pressure rate +/- of -2%, meaning that he should be applying pressure more than he is given factors like his alignment, game situation, etc. 

    Watt has struggled with his bull rush move this year. He has used it the most out of his repertoire, but has yet to log a pressure when utilizing it. The speed and speed-to-power rushes are where he has made his hay thus far, logging a total of 10 pressures and 2.5 sacks.

    The pass rusher who has made the most noise this year is Nick Herbig, whose role increased after Alex Highsmith was injured in Week 2. Herbig is 6th in Pass Rush Total Points and is tied for 8th in sacks with 4.5. 

    Herbig’s speed rush is his go-to as he has given it a go on 30 pass snaps and has generated 5 pressures and a sack. After this, he has a pretty robust repertoire where he has attempted 6 other moves at least 10 times this year. The inside cross, cross chop, and rip moves have all generated at least 3 pressures for him this season and an additional 2 sacks. He’s trying the rip much more often, though, so his success rate has not been as good with that move.

    The defensive line is what has been the main issue early on for this unit. With Cam Heyward sitting out the majority of camp and rotating in some young guys like Derrick Harmon (who missed the first two games), Yahya Black, and Logan Lee, the Steelers needed guys like Keeanu Benton and Isaiahh Loudermilk to step up.

    Early on, they did not do that, as both of them had negative Total Points Above Average in Run Defense, the lowest values on the team through the first two weeks. Benton was also a negative in pass rush. Both of these guys were getting blown off the ball and unable to disrupt any runs that came their way. The struggling interior was the main culprit of the vulnerabilities in the run game.

    Derrick Harmon has now made his debut and has contributed 3 tackles for loss. Benton has also improved slightly in the run game, but he has made his presence felt on the pass rush, accounting for 1.5 sacks in the last 3 games.

    Overall, this defense has begun to show flashes of the top unit it intends (and is paid) to be. The growth of Harmon and Black will help fortify the trenches for the likes of Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson to roam free. The returns of Alex Highsmith and Joey Porter Jr. will bolster a pass defense that is looking to attack the quarterback while playing man on the back end. There are plenty of tests to come, the question is: Will this unit be able to cash in?

  • Chalk Talk!: NFL Playoff Team Offensive Schemes

    Chalk Talk!: NFL Playoff Team Offensive Schemes

    The Wild Card Round is upon us, and perhaps the only team you were able to keep up with religiously during the season was your own. A lot goes on in the NFL every week, and you’ve likely caught some glimpses at other teams here and there, maybe during island games, but might not have as good a grasp on the other 31 teams as you do your own. 

    That’s where this scheme primer comes in. Here, we’ll be providing you with a brief crash course on the offenses of the Wild Card Round teams, packed with advanced tendency stats and football terms you may want to use to flex on your friends in the group chat this weekend. Without further ado, let’s get started.

    AFC

    #2 Seed Buffalo Bills

    The Bills do some interesting stuff on offense. They put their running backs in motion more than any team but the Dolphins, and their backs have the second-highest ADoT of any team in the league. They get their backs out into the pattern at a high rate, but they’ll get them into corner routes and seams rather than just out into the flats or over the ball, which is symptomatic of a passing game that is generally downfield-oriented with high horizontal stretches (e.g. double post) and outside vertical stretches. 

    They are zone-run heavy (like most teams), which are well-suited to James Cook’s skillset, but they have moving parts gap schemes to supplement it, and will, needless to say, use Josh Allen on designed runs out of these looks. 

    Lastly, they rank sixth in both RPO and screen rate, which is their form of quick game because they rank 24th in traditional short dropbacks.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Bills’ put their running backs in motion the second-most of any team and have the second-highest ADOT.

    #3 Seed Baltimore Ravens

    This is the bullyball team of the AFC. Two-thirds of the Ravens’ offensive snaps are played in heavy personnel groupings, and they rank last in 11 personnel usage. 

    They run well no matter the design, ranking in the top five in success rate in both gap and zone schemes. Lamar Jackson obviously makes this easier. Teams have tried stacking the box (second-highest rate in the league) but the Ravens rank first in stacked box run success rate. 

    The juice in the passing game comes from intermediate and deep concepts, with Jackson having the second-highest ADoT in the NFL and 30% of his throws targeting verticals, post, corners, and crossers. As a result, he’s the quarterback with the highest Boom Rate in the NFL (plays gaining an expected point or more).

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: Two-thirds of the Ravens offensive snaps are in heavy personnel

    #4 Seed Houston Texans

    The Texans’ offense has used condensed formations more than any other team in the NFL this year (about 27 plays per game). They don’t make great use of the space this affords, with C.J. Stroud throwing out-breakers at the third-highest rate and about twice as often as crossers. 

    These condensed formations also tend to draw more defenders into the box and contribute, in part, to the top ten rate at which they run into a loaded box. Furthermore, they typically don’t do it very well, ranking sixth-worst in success rate on such carries. 

    Like other Shanahan offenses tend to be, they’re a zone-heavy team and use a lot of motion, but unlike other Shanahan offenses, they disproportionately use motion to pass and run at the fifth-lowest rate in the league on plays with motion.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Texans use condensed formations more than any other team.

    #5 Seed Los Angeles Chargers

    The arrival of Jim Harbaugh has brought old school football to Los Angeles. This is a gap-scheme, play action-heavy offense that orients itself around power and counter runs and play action shot plays; the Chargers rank 1st in play action rate, 5th in gap run rate, and Justin Herbert is tied for second in ADoT (8.7). 

    With an interior offensive line that ranks 24th in run blocking Total Points, the Chargers haven’t fully grown into their new identity, ranking 24th in rushing success on gap concepts. They’re largely reliant on the play action game to push the ball downfield, ranking 3rd in net passing EPA with play action and 16th without.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Chargers rank 1st in play action rate.

    #6 Seed Pittsburgh Steelers

    The Russell Wilson offense is the same as ever, and the Steelers’ offense is built around the go-ball. Wilson threw verticals at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this year, and outs and flats at the 3rd-highest rate. In fact, half of non-screen attempts by Wilson have targeted a vertical or something relatively short and outbreaking. 

    Considering Wilson averages a paltry 0.02 EPA/attempt against Cover 3 and that the Steelers are a bottom five team in rushing success against stacked boxes, the key to playing them seems to be stacking the box and playing Cover 3. Let them run boot Flood and check it down to the flat for 5 yards every play, who cares.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: Russell Wilson threw verticals at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this year, and outs and flats at the 3rd-highest rate.

    #7 Seed Denver Broncos

    This is a training wheels offense that relies heavily on screens and boots/sprintouts, ranking 4th and 1st in the NFL in those categories, respectively. Furthermore, they rank dead-last in quick game usage – which makes sense considering Bo Nix wasn’t particularly adept at that in college. 

    This is a static—last in motion rate—point-and-shoot operation that’s overreliant on screens and scrambles to move the ball in the passing game. They’ve generated 28 EPA on scrambles and screens, which is higher than the EPA they’ve netted across all pass plays (23.6).

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Broncos rank 4th in screen usage and 1st in boot/sprintout usage.

    NFC

    #2 Seed Philadelphia Eagles

    The Eagles used more 2×2 formations than anyone in the NFL this year and are more generally motored by West Coast staples which create low, horizontal stretches in zones (think double slants and slant-flat) and triangle reads (like snag), RPOs, and AJ Brown iso concepts. 

    Their run game is a little zone-heavy but is mostly Saquon-heavy. They haven’t benefitted from Jalen Hurts’ legs like they have in the past; he hasn’t averaged a meaningfully positive EPA per attempt on designed non-sneak runs since 2022. This unit is powered more by its personnel at the skill positions than anything else.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Eagles used more 2 x 2 formations than any team in the NFL in 2024.

     #3 Seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Buccaneers generated the second-most EPA and the most yardage on screen plays of any team in the SIS database (2015-present). They just generally like to throw near the perimeter, with lots of concepts that feature outbreakers like two-man stick, smash variants, and flood, generally with in-breakers coming into Baker Mayfield’s vision from the other side late in the down. 

    In the running game, they’re the most efficient gap scheme team in the NFL, which was not on anyone’s bingo card headed into the year. They were 27th last season.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Buccaneers generated the most yardage and second-most EPA on screens of any team in the last 10 seasons.

    #4 Seed Los Angeles Rams

    The Rams don’t look a whole lot different than they have throughout the Stafford era. They’re still running a lot of zone, motion, and play action, and they’re still under center a lot. 

    The passing game has a lot of high low concepts, outside vertical stretches, and crossing patterns, but their receiving corps doesn’t have a legitimate speed element and they’ve struggled mightily against man coverage this year. They rank 28th in success rate against man coverage, but 1st against zone coverage.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Rams crush it against zone coverage (highest success rate), but rank 28th vs man.

    #5 Seed Minnesota Vikings

    The Vikings are a zone-heavy run team that likes to operate from under center (31st in shotgun usage. However, unlike the Chargers they aren’t aggressive in their pursuit of play action from under center.

    The passing game operates in the intermediate-to-deep area of the field, with 54% of Darnold’s passes landing somewhere between 5 and 20 yards downfield, the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Darnold’s 8.7 ADoT is tied with the previously-mentioned Jackson and Herbert.

    They work the ball to the outside and over the middle in relatively equal measure, with Darnold hunting crossing routes at one of the higher rates in the league.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: 54% of Sam Darnold’s passes go 5 to 20 yards downfield, the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

    #6 Seed Washington Commanders

    The upstart Commanders are notable for their varied and successful run game. They’re the most efficient zone running team in the league, but they are 5th-lowest in usage. They are 6th in gap run rate, but their success on such concepts has waned down the stretch. 

    They’re one of the teams that’s tapped into 3×1 gun strong and setting the back to the tight end in 3x1Y formations, ranking third in the usage of such formations to create unbalanced defensive structures. 

    The core passing game is pretty standard Air Raid fare like Y Cross and Stick variants, but to supplement that they’ve just generally tapped into some of the more common ‘cheat codes’ and rank 4th in both RPO and play action rate, and 10th in screen rate.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Commanders are the most efficient zone running team in the league, but have the 5th-lowest usage rate.

    #7 Seed Green Bay Packers

    The Packers’ offense is interesting because this is largely an offense that stretches you horizontally and creates a lot of conflict with fast motion, but they don’t really run a lot of true quick game. Their ‘quick game’ is being 2nd in RPO rate and screen rate. 

    The quarterback is a big play hunter though, and so this is all spiced up with a dose of shot plays whenever LaFleur needs to appease Jordan Love’s urge to launch the ball. 

    In the run game, they’re a zone-heavy team but rank top 8 in both zone and gap success rate. 

    They line up in 11 personnel most often (as most teams do), but they’re much more balanced out of it than most teams. They led the league with a 41% run rate.

    Re’stat’ing for emphasis: The Packers rank 2nd in RPO rate and screen rate.

  • Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC North

    Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC North

    Photo: Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

    Our first division preview (AFC East) highlighted three potential conference winners. The AFC North probably can’t claim that, but they had four winning teams in 2023 and the worst of those was missing its starting quarterback (the Bengals and Joe Burrow). This year, the SIS NFL betting model projects a couple of near-misses in terms of getting above .500, but the whole division is projected to be in the 8-to-11-win range.

    To talk through the key storylines for each team, we had high school coach and Bengals enthusiast Nate James on the Off the Charts podcast.

    Is the Bengals’ defense championship-caliber?

     It hasn’t been that long, but there’s been quite a bit of change on the Cincinnati defense since defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo put himself on the map a couple postseasons ago.

    In the last two offseasons the defense has lost much of its punch-you-in-the-mouth aesthetic. Two solid but relatively unheralded back-end pieces in safety Jesse Bates (Falcons) and corner Chidobe Awuzie (Titans) have left the fold in consecutive offseasons, and they’ve leaned into smaller athletes with compelling speed (e.g. Dax Hill).

    To some extent as a result of that, their biggest liability is likely to be in the run game. The loss of defensive tackle D.J. Reader (Lions) might break the camel’s back of a defense that was 26th in Run Defense Total Points per play last year.

    “You look at the fits; they corrected some of the issues theoretically, but they replaced Reader, one of the best nose tackles in the game, with Sheldon Rankins, very much not a nose tackle. They drafted Kris Jenkins, who I like a lot, but not a nose tackle. He has the potential to be an elite run defender, but frame-wise, that’s not what he is.

    “You look at the games they did win in the playoffs, you see that Reader just dominated that Tennessee game. It all started with them being able to keep people off schedule, and then Lou could cook when they got to long yardage situations.”

    – Nate James

     Ravens: In a division with tough defenders up front, can an overhauled offensive line hold up?

     The Ravens were in the top 10 in blocking Total Points per play last year, but the loss of three starters (Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Kevin Zeitler) leaves more questions than answers. The unique run scheme that Baltimore has been able to execute with Lamar Jackson at the helm has raised their floor as an offense when the skill position players haven’t been there on the outside. With minimal continuity up front—not to mention a new backfield with Derrick Henry in the fold—there isn’t the same bankability.

    “I’m not a huge Roger Rosengarten guy. I know he’s got some length and he can move, but I can’t get the image of him getting bull rushed onto the back of his head in the National Championship Game out of my head….And it’s not like Van Cleveland’s some bum, they’ve got guys that have played in the league some. It’s just an issue of continuity and how they’ll gel together for a team that most people would expect to be in the playoffs.”

    – Nate James

    “Morgan Moses is not necessarily a name that rings bells across the league, but if Morgan Moses is your OL4 among your starting five you’re pretty happy about that.”

    “I also have some concerns about Ronnie Stanley. He’s been through quite a bit in his career, and when I watch, he’s not the same player he was two, three years ago.”

    – Bryce Rossler

    To put it differently from a numbers perspective, in 2023 SIS’s Sonar depth chart had four of the five Ravens’ starters in the top third at their position by Total Points per game. This year, only center Tyler Linderbaum qualifies.

    How much does the Browns’ roster continuity make up for their lack of solid quarterback play?

    Obviously the Browns showed in 2023 that they could make the playoffs with chaos at the most important position. But that was with a Defensive Player of the Year campaign from Myles Garrett and an overall defense that was top two in run defense and pass rush by Total Points per play. Defensive performance is famously difficult to project from season to season, and they haven’t made splashy moves in the offseason, but they’re at least bringing continuity to the table.

     “The Browns are tailor made to beat the Bengals. They have so much pass rush juice, they’ve got the corners to at least credibly challenge those guys on a down to down basis. They’re really good at corner, pass rush, they can run you over, but are they good enough at quarterback and on the margins to beat really good teams outside of that? There’s not a lot of transactions to talk about, because they haven’t had draft picks and they’ve been able to maintain most of their own guys. It’s hard to look at their roster and not wonder why they’re not a bigger factor.”

    – Nate James

     The trouble is that Deshaun Watson being healthy doesn’t necessarily mean an improvement at quarterback. Whether it’s injury or time off or psychological baggage, he has not been the same since his MVP-caliber 2020 season.

     “I think people would probably point to the quarterback situation last year and be like, ‘Well, there’s no reason we can’t do it again,’ but Deshaun Watson is not good right now. We have him 26th out of 41 quarterbacks since 2022 in Total Points per play. I think he’s sandwiched between Baker Mayfield and Aiden O’Connell, which is not good company.”

     – Bryce Rossler

     “I think the time away has hurt for sure. The last time he was good was, what, 2020, and that’s too long ago. It’s possible that he could turn around, but it’s legitimately hard not to think of some karmic debt having an impact on his and their success right now.”

    – Nate James

    Can either new Steelers quarterback make music with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith?

    After a winning season with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph rotating through at quarterback, the Steelers cleaned house and added more notable names in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. That said, it’s not clear that more notable production will come from the changes.

    “I think it’s fair to say that you trust Russell Wilson a little bit more. Even though he is not necessarily a consistent player, stylistically he is consistent. You know what you’re going to get out of him every game at this point, for better or worse. But he’s never really shown, even when he was good, the ability to consistently do the things that Arthur Smith is going to ask him to do, like turning his back under center, running play action, throwing over the middle.”

    – Bryce Rossler

     “All stuff he has been documented to not do for a prolonged period of time. You look at the last time Smith ran an offense that was good would have been in Tennessee. Is the archetype for an Arthur Smith quarterback, Ryan Tannehill? We’re talking about two very un-Tannehill-like guys, in terms of being big, standing in, getting punched in the face, pushing the ball downfield, it’s just not what they have.”

    – Nate James

    In terms of total production, Wilson and Fields were effectively tied, ranking 21st and 22nd (respectively) in Total Points in 2023. The combination of Pickett, Trubisky, and Rudolph would have placed comfortably below that. So there’s room for optimism on an otherwise winning roster, but plenty of uncertainty.

  • 2024 SIS NFL Draft Team Grades

    2024 SIS NFL Draft Team Grades

    If you want our full thoughts on the players your team has added plus any UDFA, you can check out our Big Board for tons of great information. And if you’d like to contribute to next year’s draft cycle, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position.

    Welcome to our annual NFL Draft Report Card, in which we grade both the teams and ourselves on how well they fared in this NFL Draft.

    First off, we grade ourselves on how many players were drafted that we had featured on our NFL Draft website. After having 69% (174 of 254) of drafted players in the book in 2019, 78% (199 of 255) in 2020, 84% (218 of 259) in 2021, 86% (226 of 262) in 2022 (Year 1 online), and 92% (238 of 259) in 2023, we finished the 2024 draft cycle with 94% (241 of 257).

    When taking out specialists and international players, which we currently don’t write up, there were only 10 players drafted who weren’t on the site and only 2 of which we didn’t formally watch. That’s over 99% of the NFL Draft covered! Plus, many players we had on the site who didn’t get drafted have already signed free agent deals with teams.

    Using our grades, we attempted to rank each team’s draft class. Just like in our article from last season, we assigned all players who were drafted but not on the site a 5.4, which is the equivalent to a training camp body. We took those grades for each player and divided that by the number of selections the team had.

    These rankings do not account for positional value, the value of where players were drafted, or trades teams made; it is literally based on the grades we gave the players who were drafted and how much talent we feel teams got from their selections compared to the number of picks they made.

    And with that, the 2024 Best Draft Class, with an average grade of 6.46, goes to the Chicago Bears. They may have only had five draft picks, but they made the most of them. Even with drafting a punter in the 4th Round, they still managed to obtain good talent with their selections.

    The Bears draft class is in the table below.

    Chicago Bears 2024 Draft Class
    Pick Position Player College Grade
    1 QB Caleb Williams USC 7.0
    9 WR Rome Odunze Washington 6.9
    75 OT Kiran Amegadjie Yale 6.5
    122 P Tory Taylor Iowa 5.4
    144 ED Austin Booker Kansas 6.5

    After trading away the No. 1 pick in 2023 to give the Panthers Bryce Young and our top Draft Class, the Bears took their quarterback of the future in USC’s Caleb Williams. Williams was our top-ranked QB and our No. 2 player overall.

    With their second selection of Round 1, Chicago grabbed wide receiver Rome Odunze out of Washington. Odunze was our No. 3 WR, but No. 5 player overall. In almost any other draft, he’s likely the top WR on the board, but he’s behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in this class. However, that shouldn’t impact his play at the next level. He’ll partner up with DJ Moore and recently-acquired Keenan Allen to form a legit three-headed monster at receiver.

    With no picks in the 2nd Round, the Bears next selection came at No. 75 when they selected tackle Kiran Amegadjie (SIS No. 10 OT, No. 56 Overall) out of Yale. Unfortunately, Amegadjie missed all but four games in 2023 due to injury. With that injury, he hasn’t played a ton of football and is very raw, but the measurables and what he’s shown while he has been on the field suggests he has a lot of upside.

    Their final two picks were Tory Taylor, punter out of Iowa, and edge rusher Austin Booker (SIS No. 6 ED, No. 50 Overall), out of Kansas. Taylor may be turning 27-years-old soon, but he’s one of the better punter prospects to come out in recent years. Booker was a great value in the 5th Round, as the Bears traded back in to take him since he was still on the board.

    SIS Top Draft Classes
    Year Team Previous Season Following Season 2nd Season
    2019 Tennessee Titans 9-7 (No Playoffs) 9-7 (L, AFC Champ) 11-5 (L, Wild Card)
    2020 Cleveland Browns 6-10 (No Playoffs) 11-5 (L, Divisional) 8-9
    2021 Detroit Lions 5-11 (No Playoffs) 3-13-1 9-8
    2022 New York Jets 4-13 (No Playoffs) 7-10 7-10
    2023 Carolina Panthers 7-10 (No Playoffs) 2-15 ?
    2024 Chicago Bears 7-10 (No Playoffs) ? ?

    Since we grade players based on what they will be at the beginning of Year 2, let’s widen the table of our recent Draft Class winners.

    After winning as top class in 2019, the Titans made consecutive playoff appearances. While the Browns made the playoffs the next year, the turmoil in that locker room in 2021 forced a fall to 8-9. The Lions did take a dip in 2021 in the first year of a new regime, but they took a huge step forward in 2022, nearly making the playoffs, and then going all the way to the NFC Championship this past season.

    As for the Jets, they improved their record in 2022 and had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year (Garret Wilson and Sauce Gardner), but expectations fell in 2023 when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. The Panthers were tough to watch last season, and Bryce Young really struggled, but he wasn’t helped much with a coaching change midseason and a rough roster around him.

    What does that mean for the Bears? They decided to move on from Justin Fields and will now have this year’s No. 1 overall pick lining up at quarterback to go with a ton of weapons on the offensive side. The team likely isn’t in a position to compete for a Super Bowl just yet, but they have a lot of the core pieces to make a run sooner rather than later. Don’t be shocked if the NFC North is one of the toughest divisions in football in 2024.

    Now, let’s check out how the rest of the teams fared in our rankings. Here are the draft classes ranked in order of their grade:

    2024 Final Rankings
    Rank Team # of Picks Draft Grade
    1 Bears 5 6.46
    2 Giants 6 6.42
    3 Lions 6 6.38
    4 Titans 7 6.31
    5 Steelers 7 6.29
    6 Chiefs 7 6.27
    7 Broncos 7 6.26
    8 Patriots 8 6.24
    9 Panthers 7 6.23
    10 Cardinals 12 6.21
    11 Chargers 9 6.20
    12 Raiders 8 6.20
    13 Buccaneers 7 6.19
    14 Rams 10 6.18
    15 Ravens 9 6.17
    16 Texans 9 6.17
    17 49ers 8 6.16
    18 Saints 7 6.16
    19 Commanders 9 6.13
    20 Jets 7 6.11
    21 Bengals 10 6.10
    22 Vikings 7 6.10
    23 Seahawks 8 6.09
    24 Falcons 8 6.09
    25 Bills 10 6.08
    26 Cowboys 8 6.08
    27 Packers 11 6.07
    28 Colts 9 6.07
    29 Dolphins 7 6.06
    30 Eagles 9 6.04
    31 Browns 6 5.95
    32 Jaguars 9 5.93

    Some thought the Giants could draft a quarterback, but they decided not to, taking our No. 4 overall player, Malik Nabers, instead. The Lions, Titans, and Steelers rounded out the top 5. Detroit was able to grab four players from our top 100 in their six selections. They’ve had Top-8 classes all four years of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell era. Additionally, the Panthers put together the No. 9 class after last year’s No. 1, as they look to get back on track.

    The bottom three teams for 2023, listed 30 to 32, were the Eagles, Browns, and Jaguars. 

    We’ll preface this by saying the Eagles knocked their first two picks out of the park, grabbing two of our top 6 cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell (SIS No. 3 CB, No. 18 Overall) and Cooper DeJean (SIS No. 6 CB, No. 34 Overall). They also added running back Will Shipley (SIS No. 5 RB) in the 4th Round, who we feel could be a difference maker on 3rd downs. However, the rest of their picks, while most have a lot of upside with high ceilings, we feel they are backups early on in their careers. Their Top-2 draft classes from the past two years have set them up in a good spot moving forward regardless how most of this year’s class shakes out.

    The Browns only had six picks this year with their first one not coming until Round 2 and only three in the top 200 picks, but they only took one player we felt was going to be a starter by his second season: guard Zak Zinter (SIS No. 8 OG). Understandably, we were a bit lower on defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (SIS DT No. 12) than consensus, as we feel he’s a top backup early in his career. The rest of their picks should prove as strong depth, but it may be a few years until they become solid starters.

    This year’s worst class goes to the Jaguars. This comes a year after they ranked No. 31. They traded back and selected Brian Thomas Jr. (SIS No. 5 WR, No. 23 Overall), who should become a strong target and deep threat for Trevor Lawrence, but aside from him, only Javon Foster (SIS No. 15 OT) graded out as better than a top backup. While Maason Smith (SIS No. 13 DT) has the measurables and a high ceiling, we thought a mid-2nd Round pick was a bit of a reach.

    The 49ers took home our worst class in 2023 and still made the Super Bowl, so there is still hope for Jacksonville moving forward.

    Key Facts

    * With only 16 players drafted this year who weren’t featured on the site, many teams added a lot of talent in this year’s draft. Only two teams drafted more than one player who wasn’t featured on the site: the Colts and Vikings, though one of Minnesota’s picks was a kicker.

    * All four teams in the AFC West ranked in our top 12 this year, further suggesting that the division could get back on track as being one of the toughest in the NFL.

    * Typically teams with a lot of picks rank near the bottom just due to sheer volume and only a limited number of quality players, but the Cardinals need a shoutout this year. Even with drafting 12 players, they came in with the No. 10 ranking for us. Getting Marvin Harrison Jr., our No. 1 overall player, at No. 4 helped set them up for success throughout, but they also drafted four other players who we graded a 6.5 as starting-level players.

    * The Panthers have the best average SIS Draft Class rank over our six seasons doing this. However, the Panthers and Lions are tied with the best grade average based on our player grades over that same span. The Titans, Raiders, and Ravens round out the top 5 draft class ranks. Compared to last year, Baltimore dropped a spot to fifth, Tennessee and Las Vegas entered the top 5, and Philadelphia dropped out. The Colts continue to bring up the rear. Last year’s No. 11 ranking is the only time they’ve ever ranked in our top 25, so it may be a while before they climb up the rankings.

    * Only four players from our top 100 went undrafted this year, but each quickly signed UDFA deals with teams soon after the draft concluded. Leonard Taylor III (SIS No. 5 DT, No. 46 Overall) has signed with the Jets. Gabriel Murphy (SIS No. 9 ED, No. 61 Overall) has signed with the Vikings. Jalen Sundell (SIS No. 6 OG, No. 72 Overall) has signed with the Browns. Tight end Dallin Holker (SIS No. 6 TE, No. 75 Overall) has signed with the Saints.

    Ivan Pace Jr. went undrafted last year after being labeled our No. 51 overall player, and he played his way into Minnesota’s starting lineup and onto our All-Rookie Team.

    How the NFL Draft Site Compared to the Draft

    Let’s take a look at how the website stacks up to the NFL’s thinking of where players were selected. 

    On offense, the first player drafted at every position except RB was the No. 1 player on our board. Jonathon Brooks was the first running back off the board, but was our No. 2 ranked RB.

    On defense, the top player at each position matched the first player drafted for nose tackle, middle linebacker, and safety. At defensive tackle, edge rusher, Will linebacker, and cornerback, the top player drafted at the position was either our No. 2 or No. 3 player.

    The top 5 quarterbacks that went off the board matched our top 5, but in a slightly different order. The positions that had four of the top 5 going off the board that matched our rankings were wide receiver, tackle (matched the top 4), center, nose tackle, edge, and cornerback. The only two players we graded within the top 5 of their position group who were not drafted were DT Leonard Taylor III (previously mentioned) and Nathan Pickering (SIS No. 5 NT), though Pickering was ranked No. 376 on our board.

    Overdrafted?

    Bo Nix (SIS No. 6 QB) was our only player graded as a 6.3 or lower to be drafted in Round 1 and was actually ranked outside our top 100. Denver looks to be a perfect fit for him, but he’s got some things to prove before showing he can potentially be a win-with quarterback, which is why we graded him as a circumstantial starter/quality backup.

    The only offensive player we graded a 5.9 who went off the board before Round 3 was Ben Sinnott (SIS No. 7 TE) who was drafted at No. 53. His athletic testing numbers suggest he’s got high upside, but the athleticism didn’t translate to the field enough to warrant a starting grade early in his career.

    As mentioned before, Maason Smith and Michael Hall Jr. were both off the board in Round 2, but we had a 5.9 top backup grade on both of them. Both are young and have high ceilings, but we feel it may take a couple years of development before they can become impact starters.

    Staying on the defensive side of the ball, Edgerrin Cooper (SIS No. 3 WLB) was taken with pick No. 45. He may have been our No. 3 WLB, but we also only had a 5.9 grade on him. He’s a ridiculous athlete with a ton of upside, but it’ll be a couple years before he reaches a starting level. Additionally, Marshawn Kneeland (SIS No. 14 ED) was taken No. 56 overall. He has some potential versatility, but we also graded him as a 5.9 top backup.

    Some other players we believe were taken too early for the roles we project them to are Tip Reiman, Marist Liufau, and Jalyx Hunt, three players who were Top-100 selections and received grades a notch below a top backup.

    The first eligible player (non-specialist or international player) taken who we did not give a strong enough grade to reach the threshold we set for the website was Falcons WR Casey Washington, taken in the 6th round, No. 187 overall. Additionally, the first player who went off the board that we didn’t get a formal look or report on was Texans LB Jamal Hill who went one pick later at No. 188. The only other player we didn’t get a look at was Michael Jurgens who was selected by the Vikings in the 7th Round at No. 230.

    Underdrafted?

    Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (SIS No. 2 TE, No. 25 Overall) was the only 6.7 not selected inside the top 100, and he went to the Panthers with the first pick of Round 4 at No. 101.

    The Lions scooped up Mekhi Wingo (SIS No. 3 DT, No. 39 Overall) and Christian Mahogany (SIS No. 5 OG, No. 51 Overall) in the 6th Round, which we feel is great value.

    The only other 6.5 or above players selected in the final two rounds was Walter Rouse (SIS No. 12 OT, No. 70 Overall) by the Vikings at pick No. 177 and Beaux Limmer (SIS No. 3 OC, No. 49 Overall) who went to the Rams at pick No. 217. We like all of these players’ chances to come in and outperform their draft positions.

    Conclusion

    Every year the SIS scouting department looks to make improvements, and this year was no different. With the SIS Football Operation growing the way it is, our time is somewhat limited when it comes to scouting. However, we got a huge help from some of our Live Data scouts in January and February to knock out many of the final first looks we needed to get on players.

    Our six-man scouting team, consisting of Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, and Jeremy Percy, put in the hard work to finalize over 670 reports, of which 388 were featured on our NFL Draft site. This is the first time in three years we put less than 400 players on the site, but that’s due to a limited number of draftable players because of the COVID year and us tightening up our grading.

    Even with having less players on the site, the number of drafted non-specialist/fullback/international players not featured on our site went down again, as did the number of players drafted on whom we didn’t have eyes on at all (only 2 out of 257!). As we noted, our Top-100 evaluations were a big success with 72 of our top 100 drafted in the first 100 picks and only four not selected at all.

    That the first player not featured on the website, outside of the specialists/international players, was drafted in the 6th round is also a huge success. With Qwan’tez Stiggers and Travis Clayton being drafted out of the CFL and as an English rugby player, respectively, we may just have to start expanding our reach moving forward.

    We want to thank The 33rd Team for allowing us to house our draft content on their site this year, as we really feel like it helped expand the reach of our scouting reports and showed everyone the type of quality reports and data we produce.

    Please continue to check out our NFL Draft website as the offseason continues. If you’d like to be involved in our scouting and charting processes next year, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position. We’re taking applications and interviewing for next year’s class now.

  • The Sniff Test: What Metrics From 2022 Provide A Signal For 2023?

    The Sniff Test: What Metrics From 2022 Provide A Signal For 2023?

    On the latest episode of the Off the Charts Football Podcast, Matt Manocherian and James Weaver dove into the SIS Data Hub ($) and uncovered some of the most surprising stats from the previous season.

    The question they asked themselves was: Does this stat pass the sniff test?

    They wanted to figure out if if these stats provide a signal going into the future or if they are just a noisy occurrence.

    Here’s a look at the stats they went through. See if they pass your version of the sniff test.

    Jared Goff was 3rd in Passing Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 3

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Yes

    Given Goff’s track record of taking an offense to the Super Bowl and how the Lions finished in 2023, James bought into this stat and believed it had staying power.

    “I kind of believe it,” said Matt, who noted Goff was worth only 1.2 WAR in 2021. “It does pass the sniff test for me. But in order for that to repeat this year, a lot of the ancillary items like having a low sack number and having interception luck will have to happen again this year.”

    Sam Darnold was 2nd in the league in IQR from Week 12 onward with 108.1

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Split

    Matt was taken aback when he heard this and does not think this passes the sniff test. He believes that the simplification of the Panthers offense made Darnold’s efficiency look good.

    James responded with some other metrics that support that Darnold might have found something at the end of last season.

    Darnold ranked:

    – 3rd in On-Target Percentage

    – 7th in Average Throw Depth

    – 2nd in Yards per Attempt

    – 4th in Boom Percentage.

    “The sample size was small and he was playing for an interim coach at the end of the season, but he very well might have played the best football of his career,” James said.

    Jawaan Taylor lead all Offensive Tackles in Total Points with 42.8

    Pass the Sniff Test? – No

    “I couldn’t believe he was the leader among all tackles. I thought it would be someone like Tristian Wirfs,” Matt said. “Every year, he has shown out as somebody who is better than we thought he was and if Total Points is right, then him fitting in with Mahomes can be something really good.”

    Matt also discussed the state of the Chiefs offensive line, as they brought Taylor and Donovan Smith in to protect Mahomes on the bookends after the departure of Orlando Brown Jr.

    He doesn’t think Taylor passed the sniff test to be the leader among all tackles but believes that he can be a cornerstone for the Chiefs moving forward.

    The Texans were 4th in Pressure Rate at 37.8%

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Undetermined

    This was another stunner for Matt and it was left for James to counter.

    He pointed out that Christian Kirksey ranked 11th overall in pressure rate, and players like Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Jerry Hughes contributed positively to that number. The Texans ranked 13th in sack percentage and 26th in Pass Rush Points Saved.

    “So they were generating pressure, but couldn’t bring down the quarterback when they got to him,” James said.

    Matt brought up that the roster has a lot of good young players, including Will Anderson who can absolutely make an impact this season.

    In terms of deciding if this sticks, James thought that it will be hard to find a signal in this stat due to the turnover in Houston, as the team looks very different compared to a year ago.

    Josh Uche led all players in Pressure Rate at 20% among players with 100 Pass Rushes

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Yes

    “Interestingly, even with the limit set at 100, he had 256 rushes. I definitely would not have expected that,” Matt said.

    James thought that this might be due to having a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Matt Judon on one end and that Uche might be a beneficiary of that. However, he does believe that Uche is a solid player.

    Matt thinks this has a big signal and has a big upwards arrow heading into 2023.

    The Pittsburgh Steelers were 7th in Blocking Total Points

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Yes

    Overall, the Steelers were 4th in Blown Block Percentage and 9th in Wins Above Replacement,

    “Not a lot of people thought that this was a Top 10 offensive line last year.” James said.

    The Steelers were a super-heavy zone running team and had a positive EPA when doing so. The system credits the o-line for all the yards before contact that the RB’s accrue in this scheme.

    Matt noted that they protected better than expected, but he wasn’t blown out of the water by that No. 7 ranking.

    On an individual basis, James Daniels (14th in Total Points), Mason Cole (40th in Total Points), and Kevin Dotson (18th in Total Points) were a solid trio on the interior of the line that helped the Steelers achieve that ranking.

    The Philadelphia Eagles allowed 0.07 EPA/A against the Run and -0.16 EPA/A against the Pass

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Maybe

    Both James and Matt were blown away that there was such a great discrepancy between the two. James pointed out that after the Commanders game, the Eagles brought in Ndamukong Suh to fill in on the D-line and that they don’t pay linebackers.

    Matt said “They really want you to rush against them so that you can’t pass efficiently against them. The only way you can keep up with their offense is to be really effective passing against them, so they will defend that more than the run. You can’t beat us at our game, you can’t out run us.”

    The Baltimore Ravens were 30th in Receiving Total Points

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Undetermined

    There was no receiver over 1.5 Yards Per Route Run on Baltimore, with Demarcus Robinson coming the closest at 1.4, 25th in Yards Per Target, the 6th-highest Drop Percentage, and 18th in On-Target Catch Percentage.

    “The receivers did the quarterbacks no favors in helping them out,” James said

    Matt pointed out that this won’t tell us anything going forward, as Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. should erase what happened the year before.

    Saquon Barkley led the NFL in using the Designed Gap

    Pass the Sniff Test? – Yes

    Matt brought up how Barkley would never hit his gap in college or in the early years of his career, so it was interesting to see him doing so regularly in the NFL.

    “It is good to see that from a player who is that powerful and that strong that can hit the gap as quick as he can,” James said.

    Matt provided more context behind Saquon’s changes. Barkley was hit at the line 41% of the time, which he gauged to be a little high

    “He is still not high on the Yards Before Contact per Attempt leaders. He’s still responsible for a whole lot of what he’s earning out there. But he got his Stuff Percentage down to 17% which is good to see.”

    Matt believes that a part of the Giants success can come down to Saquon hitting the gap in his contract year for this upcoming season.

    To listen to the episode and hear more of Matt and James’ thoughts, check out the podcast link below.

  • Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

    Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

    Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

    They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Steelers No. 1 and the Patriots No. 2 because they were most confident in the Steelers being over their 8.5 win projection and the Patriots being under their 7.5 win projection.

    The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

    If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

    Team Over/Under (Model) Team Over/Under (Model)
    1. Steelers 
    		 8.5 (Over) 9. Titans 7.5 (Under)
    2. Patriots 7.5 (Under) 10. Jaguars 9.5 (Under)
    3. Chiefs 11.5 (Over) 11. Texans 6.5 (Under)
    4. Raiders 6.5 (Over) 12. Dolphins 9.5 (Over)
    5. Jets 9.5 (Under) 13. Ravens 9.5 (Over)
    6. Broncos 8.5 (Under) 14. Colts 6.5 (Under)
    7. Chargers 9.5 (Over) 15. Bengals 11.5 (Over)
    8. Bills 10.5 (Over) 16. Browns  9.5 (Over)

    Steelers – Over 8.5 (Model = 10.5)

    Matt (over): The line that we were given was 8.5. The model projects them for 10.5. A lot of my methodology was where did my intuition match the largest differences that our model presented. And this was one of those spots.

    Bryce: Does the model know Kenny Pickett is the quarterback?

    Matt: The model sees everything. 

    The TJ Watt injury affected their performance during the season last year, but the model just looks at the depth chart and says, who are the players who are going to get the most snaps and who’s going to make the most impact? And if we expect him to play a full season, that’s a pretty big impact on the defense. It’s not like we’re betting on Kenny Pickett advancing as a passer.

    James: And the schedule’s pretty easy. They play the NFC West and the AFC South this year. The team-level metrics go back on a 7-game weighted rolling average. So, the last 7 games for the Steelers last year resulted in a 6-1 record in taking care of some of their opponents in their division and gaining momentum into the season. So you’ll see that with this team and as well as a few other teams, that a good end of 2022 translates to a potentially higher win total in 2023 

    Patriots – Under 7.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Alex (under): So I am #trustingtheprocess and taking the New England Patriots under 7.5. Idiot. James is shaking his head and he’s responsible for my decision here. 

    I don’t necessarily believe that they would get three games under, but having some amount under I would believe in terms of division competition. The division got better with Aaron Rodgers moving to the Jets. I think the Dolphins are risky because of Tua, and he’s one injury away from that team looking totally different. The Bills are pretty solid, obviously. So I’d be nervous about betting (the Patriots). 

    And so the competition in the division is tough. And the team has made a lot of lateral moves the last couple of years. And really, I don’t necessarily see Mac Jones taking a big step forward with the rest of the offense around him.

    James: I was shaking my head in disgust because they were going to be my first pick. Their schedule is brutal and I don’t know how much I consider Bill O’Brien an upgrade at offensive coordinator.

    Chiefs – Over 11.5 (Model = 12.5)

    Bryce (over): This one’s easy. I’m taking Chiefs over 11.5

    Matt: That’s a great pick as long as Mahomes doesn’t get injured.

    Bryce: The model had them at 12.5, so one win over what the Vegas total is. I don’t have any really intricate reasoning for this beyond they have Patrick Mahomes, and that James’ betting model thinks they’re actually a win better than the Vegas total would suggest. It’s hard to see them losing six games with Patrick.

    Alex: Yeah, I don’t think we need to belabor that point too much.

    Raiders – Under 6.5 (Model = 8) 

    ** We went against the model here**

    James (Under): This has already seen some sentiment in the market, being bet down from 7.5 at -181 to 6.5 -135 at Pinnacle.

    I just can’t trust any of the moves they made in the offseason. Bringing in Jimmy G. I don’t know if, like, they’re trying to stand in limbo. And I just don’t trust McDaniel as the coach.

    Matt: This is one I was back and forth on. I probably would have gone over mostly because of the model. And because 6.5  isn’t a lot, but it’s hard to be inspired about where the Raiders are right now.

    Jets – Under 9.5 (Model = 7)

    James (under): This was the model’s second-biggest discrepancy. We have them around 7 wins.

    Obviously the finish to last year is a reason why the model brought down; scoring 6, 6 and 3 points in your last three doesn’t exactly scream competence.

    Aaron Rodgers, obviously, he can scare you. He can scare you by being a Top 3-5 quarterback in this league. And he can scare you by not wanting to play football anymore. And from last year playing in Green Bay, he wasn’t as great.

    Matt: The counterpoint is that the model is taking into account that the Jets stunk at the end of last year, but it is also taking into account that they have Aaron Rodgers performing at basically last year’s level, correct, which is not top quarterback in the league, but it was sort of good.

    Broncos – Under 8.5 (Model = 6.5)

    Bryce (under): They were what, like a 5-win team last year? I get that Sean Payton’s in the building now. You no longer have a circus clown running the show. That’s probably good for at least a win. Their off season moves… Well, first of all, they didn’t have a first-round pick, so there’s not a lot of immediate impact talent coming through in the draft because they gave up so much for Russell Wilson, who I’m famously not a believer in.

    I think the offensive line got a little bit better, but I think that Wilson neutralizes a lot of the opportunity for those guys to make an impact in pass protection.

    I don’t see this team being four wins better than what they were last year. Even with Payton on board, I can’t get behind Russell Wilson. 

    Chargers – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

    Alex (over): I feel nervous because they’re the Chargers and something always goes wrong. But we talked last week about where Herbert stands in terms of the pantheon of current quarterbacks; and the skill position players are good; the offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but looks all right at this point in time.

    The defense has some interesting players and some guys that you’re not sure what to get, but just a change in coaching philosophy and a division that’s maybe a little bit has, as I mentioned before, like the division could be very good, but also does definitely have some vulnerability to it. 

    At the end of the day, I’m sort of banking on Herbert being the quarterback that he has shown to be at least capable of in stretches.

    Bills – Over 10.5 (Model = 13)

    Matt (over): I feel really good about betting on the Bills to go at least 11-6. 

    There is a scenario I think this year where things really sort of fall apart in Buffalo. I just think it’s not a likely scenario. And so, like, maybe there’s some really bad cases for them, I just think that more of the cases end up with 11 wins or more, than the bad cases. So I like the over here a lot, the model likes the over here a lot at 13.

    I’m sort of concerned about whatever’s been going on with Stefon Diggs and how that figures into everything. But I’m mostly encouraged. I think they’re a well-run team, a smart team, well-coached, well-managed and I’m expecting a bit more balance and diversification of the offense this year.

    Titans – Under 7.5 (Model = 6.5)

    Matt (under): Their line was 7.5, our model projects them for 6.5. And our model nailed it. 

    They’ve got 16 quarterbacks on the roster. They all stink. I don’t care that they signed an old receiver to try to make up for their past sins.

    They’ll try hard, which is like the worst thing about this. And they’ve hit this number before, but I think they stink and I’m happy to take the under on them. 

    Alex: Yeah, the Titans have been teetering on dropping out into irrelevance, and Derrick Henry has sustained production that I think a lot of people were not assuming would happen. And he’s  the exception to the rule of being able to drive team-level production with running back production. 

    Jaguars – Over 9.5 (Model = 9)

    Alex (over): As Matt so eloquently pointed out – the Titans: not good. The Texans: not good. The Colts: I guess we don’t really know, but probably not great. And so that drives a lot of it, but also just the Trevor Lawrence advancement year-over-year. 

    The defense has some guys on it. I don’t know if I expect them to do a ton in the playoffs, but I expect that given the situation they find themselves in that they’re going to have a pretty strong regular season.

    Texans – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 6)

    Bryce (under): They were a three-win team last year. They added quite a bit of talent this year, but it’s young talent. 

    Matt (over): I do like their secondary.

    Bryce (under): Yeah. I think Stingley is going to be great. Desmond King’s an underrated player. I like Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre. I’m a little bit concerned about their front six. I like Stroud going forward, but I don’t know if he’s going to an amazing Year 1 player. I just have a hard time seeing them being four wins better than last year.

    Matt (over): Well, all they got to do is steal some games against the other crappy teams in their division. I think that the division’s terrible. I think that the young players that they brought on should be able to help them relatively quickly.

    I talked about how I like their secondary. I think they finally have some better management in the building there and so I’m bullish on them. I think they can keep games close on the strength of their secondary and what Demeco Ryans can cook up front. Offensively, it’ll be a slog, but I’m really betting on them having the schedule that can help get them there and just the fact that they’re still going to be trying to win games late in the year when other teams might have otherwise laid down.

    Dolphins – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

    James (over): If the Patriots aren’t gonna win games, the Jets aren’t gonna win games, and the Bills are gonna win the amount of games that they should win, that means the Miami Dolphins are gonna win a lot of games in that division.

    I think bringing in Vic Fangio was a huge get for them, as well as bringing in Jalen Ramsey to solidify the defense. You have Jalen Phillips, who took a step forward last year, with Bradley Chubb there as well on the D line. And the Dolphins offense, obviously a lot of it comes down to Tua’s health. But, if they stay healthy, the Miami Dolphins can very much go over a win total of 9.5

    Bryce: I think Tua is mid, but there’s a ton of talent everywhere else on this team, and I think the coaching on the offensive side of the ball is phenomenal, so I don’t think it’ll matter whether or not Tua himself is a world beater.

    Ravens – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

    James (over): With the Ravens, it obviously, as it has the past two or three years after his MVP season, comes down to Lamar. Can he stay healthy and take a step forward in this offense?

    Obviously this division is no joke, I already talked about the Steelers and then the Bengals and Browns are bona fide teams that can push for playoffs and if things go right, play for a Super Bowl. Luckily, with the division, with the schedule breakdown, just like how the Steelers get the NFC West and the AFC South, the Ravens also get the AFC South and the NFC West.

    Colts – Under 6.5 (Model = 5)

    Bryce (under): Our model’s got them at five. I myself am a bit skeptical of them, particularly that secondary. I’m a believer in Anthony Richardson long term. I think  there’s potential for Year 1 to look kind of ugly for him.

    I know it’s a weak division. They might steal some games. I don’t know. Quarterback is such a driving force and Richardson is definitely not the most polished coming out of school. I think it’s hard for them to get seven wins. I think they’re going to get passed on, and I don’t know how well they’re going to be able to pass.

    Matt: I have no idea what to think of that team this year. I thought they had a nice draft. I think they’re kind of in a rebuilding mode. I think that Richardson is less of a project than people think he is, but still a great project.

    Bengals – Under 11.5 (Model = 12)

    Alex (under, despite the model projecting over): I acknowledge that the team is good and that I don’t expect them to tank relative to expectations. We just talked about the Steelers potentially being an over candidate; the Ravens being an over candidate; Browns, who knows what to expect with Deshaun Watson, but theoretically could pick things up after last year. So the schedule might be kind of tough.

    I’m still not entirely sure that the way that Joe Burrow plays quarterback is conducive to consistent success because of the sacks and that kind of stuff. And there’s still a little bit of uncertainty about what that offensive line is going to look like. And the defense has kind of been picked apart a little bit. 

    I still think they’ll be good, but I’m not sure if they’ve sort of hit their ceiling already 

    Matt: I’ll take it further. I love the Bills over 10.5. If you had set them at 11.5, I don’t love it. The Bengals were set at 11.5. But if you switched them, I get just as excited to take the over on the Bengals. 

  • Which Steelers QB will start Week 1?

    Which Steelers QB will start Week 1?

    After an illustrious 18-year career as the starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger decided to hang up his cleats and move on to bigger and better things. After his elbow surgery in 2019, everyone could tell that he was not the same “Killer B” as he once was.

    In his final year, Roethlisberger was 40th in Total Points Earned Per Pass, 36th in Positive Play Percentage, and 30th in Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) out of 42 quarterbacks who had more than 100 pass attempts in the regular season. 

    As a going-away gift, he has left his predecessor with a low floor to improve the Steelers offense. The question is will that predecessor be Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, or Mitch Trubisky?

    Mason Rudolph

    The 26 year old Mason Rudolph has had four seasons in the Steelers offense to prove that he is more than a backup QB. In 2019 after Roethisberger’s elbow surgery, Rudolph was given the keys to the offense full-time with 10 appearances. Even though he was able to keep the Steelers in the playoff hunt, he was unable to take the offense to the next level and performed as a below-average QB statistically.

    Mason Rudolph

    Metric 2019 (Rk)
    Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt 5.0 (35)
    On-Target % 72.9% (35)
    Independent QB Rating (IQR) 91.8 (25)
    Total Points Earned Per 60 Plays 3.4 (34)
    Positive Pass % 41.9% (35)
    INT % 3.2% (32)

    This season is best remembered for being carried off the field against the Ravens with his facemask sawed off and was involved in an incident with Myles Garrett on the field.

    In 2021, he was given another opportunity with Roethlisberger out due to COVID against the Lions at home. Rudolph was unable to pull out the win in a 16-16 tie against a team with the second worst record in the league. He went 30-50 with 242 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. 

    With the additions of other QBs via free agency and the NFL Draft, it seems as though time has expired for Rudolph’s opportunity.

    Kenny Pickett

    In 2021, Kenny Pickett was able to take full advantage of the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Pickett’s 334 completions, 4,319 passing yards, and 42 TD were all good for Top 10 in the FBS and single season records at Pitt, resulting in an invitation to New York City as a Heisman Finalist. 

    Pickett then cemented his legacy by leading the Pittsburgh Panthers to their first ACC Championship since joining the conference in 2011 and a Peach Bowl appearance. All of his success in his final season as a Panther resulted in him being the 20th overall pick in the NFL Draft by the Steelers. 

    Requiring only a 25-step walk across the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex to his new home, how big of a step will Pickett actually have to take to win the starting job? 

    Kenny Pickett

    Metric 2019 (Rk) 2020 (Rk) 2021 (Rk)
    Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt 5.5 (125) 6.1 (72) 8.8 (10) 
    On-Target % 76.6% (28)  80.0% (14) 78.1% (23)
    Independent QB Rating (IQR) 92.3 (95) 94.7 (66) 125.6 (7)
    Total Points Earned Per 60 Plays 13.3 (58) 11.5 (51) 15.4 (19)
    Positive Pass % 40.6% (114) 44.2% (68) 50.6% (10)
    INT % 1.9% (53) 2.7% (76) 1.4% (18)

    Over his final 3 seasons at Pitt, Pickett was able to improve in many key areas that led to the Panthers success offensively. Importantly, Pickett was able to reduce his Interception Percentage from 2020 to 2021, which he will need to keep low if he wants to win the starting job in Week 1.

    Pickett was able to produce these numbers with Pitt offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s pro-style offense, where the Panthers ran 12 Personnel 38% of the time. His familiarity with a pro-style offense as well as Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada (who recruited Pickett at Pitt) is a positive when factoring in the time required to learn the Steelers offense. 

    If Pickett is able to build on his knowledge of the offense, continue to limit turnovers, and improve his accuracy in the Steelers offensive scheme, he will certainly be on the fast track to the starting job in 2022.

    Mitch Trubisky

    In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears traded up to the 2nd overall pick to draft Mitch Trubisky. At the time, Trubisky was considered the top QB prospect in the draft after a prolific career at North Carolina. His best season with the Bears was in 2018, where he amassed 289 completions, 3,223 yards, and 24 TD. This performance helped earn the Bears an NFC North crown. 

    Unfortunately, he was unable to regain the success that he had in 2018 and only led the Bears to one more Wild Card round appearance.

    Mitch Trubisky

    Metric 2018 (Rk) 2019 (Rk) 2020 (Rk)
    Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt 6.6 (16) 5.0 (36) 6.0 (27)
    On-Target % 75.3% (33) 75.0% (24) 75.0% (34)
    Independent QB Rating (IQR) 95.2 (24) 81.2 (38) 87.4 (32)
    Total Points Earned Per 60 Plays 5.0 (31) 2.1 (39) -1.4 (40)
    Positive Pass % 49.8% (14) 43.1% (30) 53.0% (6)
    INT % 2.8% (29) 1.9% (19) 2.7% (32)

    Even though the Bears made the playoffs in 2020, Trubisky was again below-average in his final season as the starter. He was 40th in WAR out of 44 QBs with a minimum 100 passing attempts in the regular season. Additionally, his Interception Percentage spiked back up to 2.7%. 

    Unable to take the Bears offense to the next level, the Bears declined his 5th-year option and Trubisky then signed with the Bills to be their backup.

    In Buffalo, Trubisky only played in 4 games behind MVP candidate Josh Allen. However, he was able to sit and learn in an offense that resulted in 4,284 Net Passing Yards, a 47.5% Positive Pass rate, and 11.5 Total Points Per 60 Plays, all good for Top 10 in the NFL.

    Trubisky’s experience and opportunity to reset behind a successful offense may prove to be the main factor that can land him the starting job Week 1.

    Conclusion

    In OTAs, it was apparent that Trubisky was taking the majority of first team reps, followed by Rudolph then Pickett. When it comes to rookies, Tomlin has historically made every one of them earn their stripes by putting in the grunt work in the offseason. Therefore, Pickett taking the third-team reps comes as no surprise early on. 

    Expect this to be a true battle between Trubisky and Pickett for the starting job in the offseason. Pickett coming in at the age of 24 and running a pro-style system already puts him in a good spot to compete for the job with the experienced Trubisky. 

    Whichever QB can make the least amount of mistakes and make the correct decisions in Matt Canada’s RPO/Play-Action scheme will win the job Week 1.

  • Prop Possibilities: Browns at Steelers

    Prop Possibilities: Browns at Steelers

    Our final set of picks for the season are for tonight’s Browns-Steelers game, with the Steelers still alive in the AFC Wild Card hunt. As always, we use the SIS projections and SISBets to guide us along. There are three good options on the board based on those numbers.

    Thank you as always for reading.

    1) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, +100.

    Though he isn’t in his prime anymore and may retire after the season is over, Roethlisberger has still averaged 24 completions per game. He’s benefited from quality receivers, and two good rookies, one at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and at running back (Najee Harris).

    The SIS analysis projects Ben to complete 25-of-39 passes for 257 yards, well above the 22.5 completions necessary for the over. Fair market value should be -245, but it’s set at +100 and is the best bet on the Monday Night docket.

    2) Najee Harris, over 24.5 receiving yards -110.

    Harris has not only been the workhorse running back in his first season, but he’s also been an integral part of the passing game. He’s averaged 5.8 targets per game and pulled down almost 4.5 balls a night.

    In this Week 17 matchup, we expect him for see 5 or 6 targets (the projection is 5.5) and catch 4 balls for 36 yards.

    3) Donovan Peoples-Jones, over 32.5 receiving yards -115.

    Peoples-Jones disappeared last week in Green Bay, but he’s been a big part of this offense since Odell Beckham Jr. was released after Week 9. In the five games since then, he’s seen 6.2 targets per game.

    SIS data projects he’ll have 3 receptions for 40 yards, more than 20% above the 32.5-yard level.

    * Season record: 16-24

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

  • Top prop odds for Steelers-Browns

    By Steven Schwartz

    The surging Pittsburgh Steelers head into Cleveland for an important matchup. It will be typical AFC North weather, cold and a bit windy, but no precipitation should affect the game.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 22-10, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, and 4-0 the last four weeks (feel free to go back and look – our posts come out every Thursday morning or early afternoon). Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Mason Rudolph, 20.5 completions, over -114

    We start off with the best pick of the night. Since their bye in Week 7, Rudolph has averaged 22.7 completions per game as the Steelers have gone on a four-game win streak. SISBets analysis has Rudolph completing 24.4 passes on 38.5 attempts and gives him a 78% chance of going over. That puts fair value at -358, but the current line is just -114.

    2) Diontae Johnson, 3.5 receptions, under +134

    While we like Rudolph to go over his completion total, we go the other way with wideout Diontae Johnson. That’s because the analysis shows Rudolph will be throwing a majority of his passes to his backs (13.6 targets) and tight ends (6.3 targets). With JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington taking a big chunk of the remainder, our tool projects 2.9 receptions for Johnson and gives him a 67% chance of going under 3.5. Fair value should be -203, but we are getting +134.

    3) James Conner, score a TD, +130

    After missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, Conner is not listed on the most recent injury report and will return for the Thursday night contest. The star running back has scored in five of seven games this season with the only two teams to keep him out of the end zone being New England and San Francisco. The Browns defense isn’t in that elite class. SISBets data gives Conner a 59% chance to score (-146) while we are getting +130 from the casino.

    4) Mason Rudolph, over 1.5 touchdown passes, +145

    The Browns pass defense is stingy on yards allowed, but had yielded a generous 16 touchdown passes in nine games. Until last weekend when they held Josh Allen off the board (he ran for two scores), Cleveland had allowed at least two touchdown passes in six consecutive games. We make Rudolph a 51% favorite to throw for two scores and like the +145 the casino has posted.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Mason Rudolph, 1.5, over +145/under -182

    Baker Mayfield, 1.5, over +138/under -175

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Mason Rudolph, 0.5, over -182/under +145

    Baker Mayfield, 0.5, over -235/under +183

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Mason Rudolph, 20.5 completions, over -114/under -109

    Baker Mayfield, 20.5 completions, over -139/under +112

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    Pittsburgh

    ————–

    James Conner +130

    JuJu Smith-Schuster +210

    Jaylen Samuels +285

    Diontae Johnson +285

    James Washington +375

    Vance McDonald +350

    Trey Edmunds +700

    Mason Rudolph +1200

    Nick Vannett +1600

     

    Cleveland

    ————-

    Nick Chubb -167

    Kareem Hunt +210

    Odell Beckham Jr. +225

    Jarvis Landry +225

    Antonio Callaway +500

    Demetrius Harris +550

    Ricky Seals-Jones +750

    Rashard Higgins +750

    Baker Mayfield +750

    Dontrell Hilliard +1300

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Pittsburgh –

    JuJu Smith-Schuster, 4.5, over +124/under -155

    Diontae Johnson, 3.5, over -167/under +134

    Vance McDonald, 3.5, over +145/under -182

     

    Cleveland –

    Odell Beckham Jr., 4.5, over -152/under +122

    Jarvis Landry, 4.5, over -114/under -109

     

  • How Good Is the Patriots’ Defense, Really?

    By Brian Reiff

    The Patriots are again one of the NFL’s top teams. Not something that’s surprising to anyone, but the way in which they’re doing it has made headlines.

    The Patriots’ defense has been other-worldly this season, ranking first by an assortment of metrics: points allowed, yards per play, total yards allowed (among teams that have played six games), turnovers forced, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), and pretty much any other stat you can find on Pro-Football Reference. In fact, the Patriots are so good that they’re actually forcing turnovers on a higher percentage of drives (20%) than they’re allowing the opposing team to score (6%).

    Even when looking at more advanced metrics, the Patriots still come out on top. A good way to measure performance is through Expected Points, specifically looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) per 60 plays. By this metric, the Patriots have still been the top defense, but their gap at the top is narrower than some might’ve thought.

    2019 EPA Allowed Per 60 Plays Leaders

    TeamEPA Allowed Per 60 Plays
    Patriots-22.2
    49ers-19.8
    Bills-9.6
    Titans-6.0
    Vikings-5.4

    A negative number here is good for the defense, indicating the offense was losing an average of 22.2 Expected Points every time they ran a game’s worth of plays against the Patriots defense. However, the 49ers are right there with them, with both enjoying a large lead over the rest of the league.

    However, there is still a notable factor being left out of this analysis. The Patriots have played one of the easiest schedules in the league, feasting on the likes of the Steelers (2-4), Dolphins (0-5), Jets (1-4), Redskins (1-5) and Giants (2-4). Has their defense actually been as good as the number show, or have they just played bad teams that have inflated their numbers?

    To determine this, we can look at what the Patriots’ opponents have done in their games against teams other than the Patriots.

    For example, the Jets averaged -28.8 EPA per 60 plays against the Patriots, but they’ve averaged -15.0 EPA per 60 plays in the rest of their games against the Bills, Browns, Eagles and Cowboys. With those numbers, we could say that the Patriots were 13.8 points better than an “average” team was against the Jets (the Jets have likely not played an exactly “average” schedule, but in the aggregate among all teams it should be close enough).

    All of the Patriots’ opponents this season have combined to average -5.4 EPA per 60 plays in their games against teams that weren’t the Patriots, which ends up being the second-lowest mark by a team (the Cowboys’ opponents have averaged -7.2 EPA per 60 plays). If we take the Patriots’ overall number (-22.2) and compare it against their opponents’ average (-5.4), we see that the Patriots’ defense was 16.8 points better than an average team. Doing this for all teams, we can produce an opponent-adjusted leaderboard that should provide a better answer to the question of which defense has reigned supreme in the NFL so far this season.

    2019 EPA Allowed Per 60 Plays Leaders
    Adjusted for Opponent

    TeamEPA Allowed Per 60 PlaysOpponent Avg EPA Per 60 PlaysDiff
    49ers-19.8-1.8-18.0
    Patriots-22.2-5.4-16.8
    Panthers-5.43.6-9.0
    Titans-6.01.8-7.8
    Steelers-4.23.0-7.2

    Three of the top five teams remain the same, but there is a new leader—the San Francisco 49ers. After adjusting for the teams they’ve played, the 49ers have actually stifled their opponents more so than the Patriots, despite trailing behind them in the raw numbers (albeit slightly). The Patriots are a close second, so it’d be improper to say their defense hasn’t been great. However, it’s clear that the two teams comprise a top-two rather than the Patriots sitting alone at the top.

    For more advanced NFL stats, visit the SIS DataHub and for more information about Sports Info Solutions, visit our website.