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Tag: Playoffs

  • NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

    NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

    With the Eastern Conference Playoffs beginning today, we wanted to break down each first-round matchup using our proprietary data. Each tile chart below outlines how teams faired in their head-to-head matchups this season including all possessions played, and all metrics given are Per 100 Possessions and do not include garbage time unless otherwise stated.

    For a primer on Advantage Creation and some of the other metrics mentioned in these articles, check out our Twitter @SIS_Hoops and reach out if you have any questions!

    Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Miami Heat (8)

    The Milwaukee Bucks defense is once again an elite unit, ranking 3rd in Opponent Points Per Chance (1.007), contesting the most shots in the league, and placing 1st in Adjusted Def Shooting Foul Rate (13.2), where players are penalized for fouls drawn by the offense.

    The Bucks are primed to make an up-and-down Miami Heat offense work for every basket. A good helping of the Heat’s scoring comes by way of the foul line, where they rank 6th in free throw rate this season (22.4).

    Shots in the paint outside of the restricted area, where Milwaukee gives up the most looks of any team in the league (8.6) and Miami happens to be the league leader in shot frequency (7.3) with a 49.6% FG% (6th), could be the battleground where this series is decided.

    Flipping ends of the court, Miami has been able to deter opponents from shooting at the rim, ranking 1st in Opponent Rim Attempts (30.5). Once opponents get there, however, Erik Spoelstra’s squad has not contested well, ranking 29th in Above Average Rim Contest % (32.6%). With the immense rim pressure that Giannis Antetokounmpo puts on defenses — ranking in the 99th percentile in rim FGAs with 18.0 and in the 83rd percentile in rim TS% at 70.4% — the points in the paint battle will be of paramount importance. Keeping Giannis away from the rim will prove difficult as he is 2nd overall in Advantage Creation (36.5), but Giannis’ TS% falls to the 11th percentile when rim FGAs are removed (43.1%).

    Boston Celtics (2) vs Atlanta Hawks (7)

    The Boston Celtics measure as one of the best offenses this season, ranking 1st in Expected Offensive Rating (104.2) and 2nd in Points Per Chance (1.116). It is hard to envision how the Atlanta Hawks slow Boston’s attack, as the Hawks rank 26th in Expected Defensive Rating (104.0) and 19th in Points Per Chance (1.046). Additionally, the Celtics rank in the top 10 in Advantage Creation (8th, 74.7) and are the best in the NBA at maintaining those advantages throughout the possession (1st, 34.3), while the Hawks rank 26th in Advantage Prevention (29.5).

    Because their chances of stopping the Celtics are low, the Hawks’ best path to victory involves outscoring the Celtics. Since the All-Star Break, the Hawks rank 2nd in Offensive Rating (122.1) and are led by one of the NBA’s most prolific Advantage Creators, Trae Young, who ranks 2nd in the league this season with 33.3 Advantages Created per 100 Possessions.

    And while the Celtics’ defense is very good, the team has allowed the 2nd most advantages per 100 possessions against Isolations, a place where two Hawks thrive. In Isolation, Young creates 4.9 Advantages per 100 Possessions (94th Percentile) and Murray creates 3.5 per 100 Possessions (88th Percentile).

    If he can create advantages, Young is capable of getting good shots for himself and his teammates. Young averages 22.4 Potential Assists per 100 Possessions (99th Percentile), but the main question will be if the Hawks can convert on those shots, where they have been inconsistent all season.

    Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs Brooklyn Nets (6)

    Since the Brooklyn Nets traded away superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the deadline, this series presents one of the largest star disparities: MVP favorite Joel Embiid and former Net James Harden versus Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie. For the Nets to pull off the upset, they will need all of their players to contribute on both ends of the floor.

    Since the All-Star Break, the Nets have struggled on the offensive end, but they have shown some promising signs on the defensive end, ranking 6th in Above Average Contest % (32.2%), which includes Blocks, Alters, and Plus contests, 1st in Least Defensive Miscues (6.12), and 1st in Least Advantages Allowed (45.0).

    While these are great signs for Brooklyn’s future, it will be much more difficult to execute in these areas against Embiid, who is in the 96th percentile for Advantages Created (27.4) and the 92nd percentile for Points Per Chance (1.181) and a Philadelphia 76ers team that ranks 6th in eFG% against Above Average Contests (38.4%).

    A particular area of interest with Embiid is the fact that Philadelphia ranks 1st in the NBA in Adjusted Shooting Foul Rate (13.8), where players get additional credit for fouls they draw. However, last season we saw the Sixer’s Adjusted Shooting Foul Rate decrease in the postseason.

    Lastly, how the Nets choose to guard Embiid is key – Claxton had a great year on defense, rating in the 98th percentile for Defensive Points Per Chance (0.944), the 95th percentile in Foul% on Contests (8.3%), and the 98th percentile in Advantage Prevention (12.8), but defending Embiid is a lot to ask of the young center.

    Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs New York Knicks (5)

    This matchup will be defined by how the Knicks’ offense fares against the Cavaliers’ defense.

    The Cleveland Cavaliers measured as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA according to SIS data, ranking 2nd in Defensive Rating (106.4) and 1st in Expected Defensive Rating (98.6). This indicates that they forced their opponents into difficult shots by driving down the value of those shots through high-quality contests.

    The Cavs rank 1st overall in Above-Average Contest % (37.4%), and they avoid below-average contests (3rd, 13.6%) and fouling (6th, 12.0%). On the other side of the matchup, the Knicks rank 22nd in eFG% against Above-Average Contests, which means they will have to convert those shots at a higher rate than they did in the regular season or create more open looks if they are going to challenge the Cavaliers’ indomitable defense.

    Additionally, the Knicks rank 4th in SIS Offensive Rating (119.2) but only 21st in Points Per Chance (1.057). The key to their success is in the SIS Advanced 4 Factors where the Knicks rank 2nd in Adjusted Shooting Foul Rate, they rank 3rd in Adjusted Turnover Rate, where players are penalized for unforced turnovers, and most importantly, they rank 1st in Contested Offensive Rebound %.

    The Knicks’ offensive rebounding will be key to their success, but it will not come easily as the Cavaliers rank 1st in Contested Defensive Rebound %. Who controls the glass when the Knicks are on offense could be a significant factor in the outcome of this series.

    Huge thanks to Matt Bolaños, Noah Thro, Connor Ayubi, Blake Benjamin, Rebecca MaWhinney, and Stewart Zahn for helping pull together research for these previews!

  • NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview

    NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview

    With the Western Conference Playoffs beginning today, we wanted to break down each first-round matchup using our proprietary data. Each tile chart below outlines how teams faired in their head-to-head matchups this season including all possessions played, and all metrics given are Per 100 Possession and do not include garbage time unless otherwise stated.

    For a primer on Advantage Creation and some of the other metrics mentioned in these articles, check out our Twitter @SIS_Hoops and reach out if you have any questions!

    Denver Nuggets (1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

    The Denver Nuggets enter the playoffs with a powerhouse offense, ranking 2nd in Offensive Rating (119.5), 1st in eFG% (57.3%), and 3rd in Expected Points Per Chance (1.081). That potent unit is led by two-time MVP and current MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, who ranks 10th in Advantage Creation (28.1) and 3rd in eFG% Above Expected (+12.7%).

    Despite placing 3rd in the league in Advantages Prevented (33), the Minnesota Timberwolves will have their hands full with the efficient Denver attack, especially absent defensive stalwart Jaden McDaniels, out due to a hand injury, who placed in the 78th percentile in Advantages Prevented (7.7) and 81st percentile in positive Defensive Playmaking (3.2).

    Offensively, Minnesota has struggled with overall efficiency (111.1, 25th in the league), but the team’s offensive process has been better than the results, evidenced by the 16th-best Expected Offensive Rating (102.2) and 11th-most Advantages Created (72.9).

    While Minnesota has also maintained advantages relatively well (28.9, good for 11th in the league), Naz Reid, the team’s most prolific maintainer of advantages (8.4, good for 100th percentile), is sidelined for this series following wrist surgery. Making good on the team’s advantage creation absent its best connector/play finisher will be a crucial inflection point in this series.

    However, Denver’s defense could present an opportunity for Minnesota as Denver sits just 22nd in Expected Defensive Rating (103.3). While Jokic buoys one of the league’s premier offenses, he bears some blame for Denver’s porous defense, as his 15.6 advantages allowed place in the 0th percentile among qualified players.

    To make matters worse, Denver struggles to cover for its defensive lapses due to lacking off-ball defensive talent, ranking 25th in Off-Ball Advantages Prevented (10.4). If the Nuggets cannot tighten up their defense, they could leave a small window open for Minnesota.

    Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)

    With major roster turnover since the All-Star Break and LeBron missing time, the full-strength Lakers are still a bit of an unknown, but looking at their data since the All-Star Break will paint a better picture of what we can expect from this squad in the Playoffs.

    Dangerous and efficient when they push the pace, both the Lakers and the Grizzlies rank in the Top 5 in Points Per Chance in Transition at 1.552 and 1.515 respectively, and they average more than 10 Transition Possessions per 100 at 10.8 and 10.1 respectively. We can expect both teams to get out in transition; however, LA has been much better at defending in Transition ranking 1st in Opponent Points Per Chance (1.124) so it will be interesting to see if the Grizzlies can still take advantage in Transition.

    Moving into the halfcourt, both teams are effective at actively deterring shots at the rim with Memphis ranking 3rd overall (0.56) and LA ranking 3rd since the trade deadline (0.74), but this could have an outsized impact on Memphis’s offense as they are 2nd in the NBA in FGA at the Rim (40.3) and even though are the 24th most efficient team on these shots (62.7% TS%), these attempts still contribute to efficient offense overall.

    To keep the Grizzlies away from the rim, the Lakers will need to contain Ja Morant who is 5th in the NBA in Advantage Creation (32.9). They have the personnel to help prevent advantages with Anthony Davis (95th Percentile) and Jarred Vanderbilt (78th Percentile), but containing Ja will be a team effort.

    On the flip side, LeBron is also one of the NBA’s most prolific advantage creators ranking 8th (28.9), but Memphis is well positioned to defend anchored by Jaren Jackson Jr. who is in the 99th percentile for Advantages Prevented (13.1).

    Sacramento Kings (3) vs Golden State Warriors (6)

    The Sacramento Kings have reached the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, and they will face one of the most successful playoff teams of the last decade in the Golden State Warriors, but make no mistake, the Kings have been the better team this year. However, questions remain about which version of the Warriors we will see as the team reintegrates All-Star Andrew Wiggins, who missed the final 25 games of the season due to personal reasons, into the rotation.

    The Kings were the most potent offense in the NBA this season with an Offensive Rating of 119.9, but they ranked as only the 7th best in Expected Offensive Rating (103.4). They made up the difference by shooting the 4th best eFG% above expected (+2.9%). Led by De’Aaron Fox, who ranks 16th in Advantage Creation (25.3), the Kings were the 4th best team at creating advantages this season, averaging 76.4 per 100 possessions.

    The Warriors will need to slow down the Kings’ offense, and they have shown that capability defensively, ranking 4th in Expected Defensive Rating (99.6), 4th in Least Advantages Allowed, and 2nd in Above Average Contest % (35.1%). That last element could prove pivotal, as the Kings have the best eFG% in the league against Above Average Contests (41.3%).

    On the other side of the ball, the Warriors boast a prolific offense with the following rankings:

    6th in Points Per Chance (1.103)

    3rd in eFG% Above Expected (+3.1%)

    2nd in Advantage Creation (77.6)

    They’re led by Stephen Curry, who is 15th in Advantage Creation (25.7) and 4th in eFG% Above Expected (+10.8%). As has been the case throughout Golden State’s dynasty, the team struggles with turnovers, ranking 29th in Adjusted Turnover % (17.1%), where players get penalized for unforced turnovers.

    While the Kings do not force a lot of turnovers, they have been solid on the defensive end, ranking 4th in Least Defensive Miscues (7.8) and 4th in Above Average Contest % (33.4%). Though Sacramento’s quality contests may be mitigated as the Warriors have the 6th best eFG% against Above Average Contests (38.4%). Ultimately, this matchup may come down to which team can hit more tough shots.

    Phoenix Suns (4) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)

    Very little data exists on the current version of the Phoenix Suns, who are undefeated in 8 games with Kevin Durant in the lineup, but for this analysis, we will look at what both teams have done since February’s trade deadline.

    Given the talent on these teams, it is no surprise that they both rank in the Top 10 in Advantage Creation (Phoenix 10th at 75.4 and Los Angeles 4th at 78.4); however, losing Paul George to a knee sprain, who averages 21.8 Advantages Created Per 100 (12th in the among all players), leaves a big hole for the Clippers to fill.

    Both teams subsist off a similar shot diet, ranking in the top 10 in Pull-up Jumpers per 100 (Phoenix 1st at 17.7 and Los Angeles 8th at 14.7), but Phoenix has an edge as it leads the league shooting 45.2% on these shots. The Clippers, on the other hand, are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the NBA across all shot types, ranking 2nd in eFG% (58.3%) and 2nd in True Shooting (61.6%), but they struggle to take care of the ball (26th in Adj Turnover %), which hurts their overall offensive efficiency.

    Outside of scoring, Phoenix has the upper hand, leading in both Adjusted TOV% (2nd vs 26th), and Offensive Rebound % (8th vs 23rd). On the other end of the floor, the Clippers have struggled to stay solid on defense, ranking 27th in Least Advantages Allowed (54.8) and 26th in Least Defensive Miscues (10.76) compared to the Suns, who rank 17th (49.5) and 9th (8.58) respectively.

    Lastly, if games get close down the stretch, a factor that could come into play is that the Suns and Clippers rank 5th and 6th respectively in Points Per Chance on Baseline/Sideline Out of Bounds Plays (Phoenix at 1.168 and Los Angeles at 1.165).

    Huge thanks to Matt Bolaños, Noah Thro, Connor Ayubi, Blake Benjamin, Rebecca MaWhinney, and Stewart Zahn for helping pull together research for these previews!