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Author: Mark Simon

  • Stat of the Week: The Hall of Fame And Active Players

    Stat of the Week: The Hall of Fame And Active Players

    The recent Hall of Fame election got us thinking about active players, but beyond those who are surefire Hall of Famers like Mike Trout and Justin Verlander. We’re more intrigued by the players who are close calls or tough calls and those who still have a little work to do. And we can use statistics to help us understand their situations more closely.

    Bill James has a tool, Hall of Fame Value, which is (4 * Baseball-Reference WAR) + Win Shares, the latter a James-created stat meant to assess player value that he invented about 25 years ago, prior to the development of WAR.

    There are currently 12 players who have reached the HOF-V threshold of 500 intended to measure Hall of Fame worthiness. Those who hit it last season include Manny Machado, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and José Ramírez.

    Highest Hall of Fame Value (HOF-V) – Active Players

    Player

    Hall of Fame Value

    Mike Trout

    731

    Freddie Freeman

    640

    Justin Verlander

    606

    Mookie Betts

    587

    Paul Goldschmidt

    583

    Manny Machado

    540

    Andrew McCutchen

    537

    Max Scherzer

    536

    Jose Altuve

    524

    Aaron Judge

    517

    Bryce Harper

    514

    José Ramírez

    505

    Francisco Lindor

    473

    Nolan Arenado

    471

    Salvador Perez

    449

    Shohei Ohtani

    439

    Christian Yelich

    432

    Carlos Santana

    432

    Giancarlo Stanton

    429

    Marcus Semien

    426

    J.T. Realmuto

    417

    Chris Sale

    411

    Corey Seager

    389

    Xander Bogaerts

    387

    George Springer

    381

    Justin Turner

    378

    Juan Soto

    374

    Carlos Correa

    374

    Trea Turner

    374

    Alex Bregman

    372

    The most likely player to clear 500 this season is Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, who stands at 473. Lindor had 23 Win Shares and 5.9 bWAR last season. His future footing as a Hall of Famer seems solid.

    Dodgers DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani is 61 points shy of 500 and normally we’d say that’s too much to accumulate in one year, but not in this care. Ohtani added 67.8 to his total last season, in which he finished with 37 Win Shares and 7.7 WAR.

    Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado is also right there at 471 HOF-V. But Arenado is coming off the worst season of his career, 8 Win Shares and 1.3 WAR. He’ll turn 35 in April and is not anywhere near the hitter (or fielder) he was in his prime. His Hall case is still very good though.

    Nolan Arenado – Hall-of-Fame Case

    * Six times in top 8 of MVP voting

    * 10 Gold Glove Awards, 5 Fielding Bible Awards

    * 353 career home runs

    * 58 career bWAR (21st among 3B)

    Some of the other players whose progress will be interesting to track are Royals catcher Salvador Perez, Brewers DH and left fielder Christian Yelich, and Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton.

    Perez (HOF-V of 449) is 35 and hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 runs last year, though his overall offensive numbers dipped from 2024 to 2025. Win Shares still had him as a Top 50 player last season, though he managed only 0.4 WAR. He added 22.6 HOF-V to his total in 2025.

    HOF-V doesn’t take into account leadership aspects (which Perez is praised for) or postseason performance (Perez was a World Series MVP) so if he’s a close call come retirement, those may be the things that push him over the top for election.

    Yelich is actually a better candidate than you might think. He had 34.4 HOF-V last year, leaving him at 432 for his career. He’s coming off a 29-homer 103-RBI season If he could match his 2023 or 2025 in each of the next two seasons and get a little closer to being a 300-homer/300 steals guy, he’d be right at 500 HOF-V and then the discussion around him would get more serious. It won’t be easy given that he’s in his age 34 season.

    Stanton currently has a candidacy shaped by his 453 home runs (he’s the active leader). His bWAR and Win Shares combo puts him at an HOF-V of 429. He’s been injured often during his Yankees career and played only 77 games last year in his age-35 season. He’s averaged 27 home runs but only 12 doubles per season the last four years, and the sum of his production limits his overall value.

    Giancarlo Stanton – Season Averages, 2022-2025

    Stat

    Season Average

    Games

    101

    HR

    27

    Doubles

    12

    BA/OPS

    .223/.779

    WAR

    0.6

    Bill has acknowledged publicly that HOF-V tends to work better for position players than it does for pitchers, especially relief pitchers. Once you get past Verlander and Max Scherzer, the next starting pitcher in line is Chris Sale, who has an HOF-V of 411 and then there’s another steep drop to Jacob deGrom (322) and Gerrit Cole (321).

    The change in the role and usage of the starting pitcher is going to necessitate a reevaluation of what makes a Hall of Fame pitcher. Where Sale, deGrom and Cole rank among starting pitchers may be more important than what threshold they’ve cleared. The same is true for closers like Kenley Jansen (275), Aroldis Chapman (255, with off-field issues that may hinder his candidacy) and Craig Kimbrel (251).

    For another perspective on the Hall of Fame and active players, we always enjoy Mike Petriello of MLB.com’s review, which includes not just the players listed here but younger ones (like Paul Skenes) whose careers are just getting started.

  • Stat of the Week: Which Team Can Put Out The Best Defensive 9-Man Group?

    Stat of the Week: Which Team Can Put Out The Best Defensive 9-Man Group?

    It’s January, which is always the time when you see articles considering a team’s all-time performance or some other aspect of franchise history (best free agent signings is a common one).

    We don’t usually jump onto trends here, but I liked the suggestion from my colleague Alex Vigderman, who asked “If we took each team’s best player season at each position, which team would have the highest Defensive Runs Saved total?”

    So let’s indulge this one since it fits our brand. Essentially, it’s our version of a best-ball competition.

    It turns out that the team on top just traded a great defensive player in Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals.

    Position

    Player

    Runs Saved

    C

    Yadier Molina (2012)

    29

    1B

    Albert Pujols (2007)

    31

    2B

    Mark Grudzielanek (2005)

    23

    3B

    Scott Rolen (2004)

    30

    SS

    Brendan Ryan (2010)/

    Paul DeJong (2019)

    24

    LF

    Tyler O’Neill (2021)

    14

    CF

    Harrison Bader (2021)

    18

    RF

    Jason Heyward (2015)

    26

    P

    Jake Westbrook (2012)

    11

    Albert Pujols is the positional single-season and career record holder at first base (we’ve written about this). Scott Rolen has the best single-season total of any MLB player at third base (we’ve written about him too). Yadier Molina‘s 29 is just shy of the most in a season by any catcher (Roberto Pérez, 31) and he’s the career leader at catcher too. Jason Heyward is the career leader in right field since we started tracking Runs Saved in 2003.

    Between them, the listed group won 17 Fielding Bible Awards and 28 Gold Glove Awards in their careers and the only ones who didn’t win either were Paul DeJong and Jake Westbrook.

    Counting Ryan/DeJong only once (rather than both their totals), those players combined for 206 Runs Saved, making the Cardinals the only team to clear 200.

    The Cardinals beat out the Angels, whose lineup totaled 183 Runs Saved, with a large chunk of it coming from shortstop Andrelton Simmons and his record-setting 42 Runs Saved in 2017.

    The Diamondbacks‘ group of nine players, which ranked third-best, was strong all the way around, from second baseman Craig Counsell‘s 30 Runs Saved in 2005 to Gerardo Parra’s 27 in 2013, Nick Ahmed‘s 25 in 2018, and Jeff Mathis‘ 21 in 2018.

    Just behind the Diamondbacks were the Mariners, who have had three players with huge Runs Saved seasons: center fielder Franklin Gutierrez (33 in 2009), shortstop Brendan Ryan (27 in 2012), and Hall of Fame third baseman Adrian Beltré (27 in 2008).

    We would be remiss not to point out that prior to 2013, players received credit or demerit for their positioning, which led to some higher Runs Saved totals than are seen today. Just over half of the representation on these team’s lists came from 2003 to 2012.

    However, there were 20 instances in 2025 in which a team got its best defensive season for a player, the most in 10 years. That included Steven Kwan‘s 22 Runs Saved in left field for the Guardians, Ceddanne Rafaela‘s 20 in center field for the Red Sox, and the 17 runs saved seasons for Mookie Betts (Dodgers shortstop), Taylor Walls (Rays shortstop), and Matt Olson (Braves first base).

    At the other end of the list are the Marlins. In the 24-year history of Runs Saved, the Marlins have never had a player save more than 15 Runs at a position. Their nine-player lineup totaled 108 runs and featured notable names shortstop Miguel Rojas (15, 2022), right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (13, 2017), and left fielder Christian Yelich (13, 2015).

    Perhaps the most unusual discovery from all of this was with one of the lower-end teams, the White Sox. Miguel Vargas had 4 Runs Saved at first base for them in 2025, the most any White Sox first baseman has had in the history of the stat.

    Here’s the full listing of teams from 1 to 30.

    Team

    Runs Saved

    1. Cardinals

    206

    2. Angels

    183

    3. Diamondbacks

    172

    4. Mariners

    171

    5. Blue Jays

    162

    6. Guardians

    160

    7. Braves

    159

    T8. Rays

    158

    T8. Yankees

    158

    10. Astros

    156

    11. Cubs

    155

    12. Rockies

    151

    T13. Red Sox

    150

    T13. Rangers

    150

    15. Pirates

    149

    16. Athletics

    146

    17. Reds

    141

    T18. Royals

    140

    T18. Orioles

    140

    20. Nationals

    139

    21. Brewers

    138

    22. Phillies

    134

    T23. Padres

    133

    T23. Dodgers

    133

    T25. Tigers

    130

    T25. White Sox

    130

    27. Mets

    128

    T28. Giants

    127

    T28. Twins

    127

    30. Marlins

    108
  • How Good Is Nolan Arenado Defensively Right Now?

    How Good Is Nolan Arenado Defensively Right Now?

    Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire

    Those of you who have watched a lot of baseball over time know that Nolan Arenado ranks as one of the best defensive third basemen of all-time. He has 10 Gold Glove Awards and 5 Fielding Bible Awards.

    But what is Arenado defensively right now as he heads to Arizona at age 35, coming off the worst offensive season of his career?

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Last 2 Seasons

    Player Defensive Runs Saved
    Ke’Bryan Hayes 29
    Matt Chapman 22
    Ryan McMahon 20
    Ernie Clement 20
    Maikel Garcia 16
    Nolan Arenado 12
    Matt Shaw 12

    Arenado’s Defensive Runs Saved totals the last three seasons are 0, 6, and 6. He’s not the guy who saved 20 runs in 2022 but he’s also not quite done either. He’s one of five third basemen to have at least 5 Runs Saved in each of the last two seasons. The others are Ke’Bryan Hayes, Matt Chapman, Ryan McMahon, and Ernie Clement. 

    What made Arenado great in his prime was how good he was particularly in the 5-6 hole. In the first 10 seasons of his career, Arenado was 134 plays above average on balls hit to his left. He was league-leader caliber basically every year. For reference, Chapman’s best plays above average on balls hit to his left is +11. Hayes’ best is +10. The last two years, Arenado is +1 and +2. His 6 Runs Saved are the product of being a little above average going left, going right, and fielding balls hit straight or nearly straight at him.

    Some of those great early-career numbers come from the type of play for which Arenado was most well known, the barehand. We track how fielders make plays, including how often they attempt a barehand. Since the start of Arenado’s career in 2013, he has seven of the top eight seasons in barehand plays successfully made, the seven occurring consecutively from 2013 to 2019. 

    In that time, he made 140 barehand plays at third base, an average of 20 per season. No one is close to that. The next-most at the position from 2013 to 2019 is 66 by Todd Frazier. Third basemen got at least one out on 38% of barehand chances in that time. Arenado was successful on 52% of his tries.

    Arenado can still make a barehand play. He has 19 the last two seasons, the most at the position in the majors. But his success percentage is 42% (19 successes on 45 tries). Prime Arenado would have racked up at least a few more, if not a lot more.

    And though the aging curve has done its thing with Arenado, he’s particularly good for someone his age. Third base is a position in which almost everyone is younger than him. Only 10 players age 34 or older started a game at third base in 2025. Arenado’s 86 trailed only Max Muncy’s 90.

    However, the thing to keep in mind for Arizona though is this. What Arenado is able to give them at third base is probably going to look a lot better than what the team has gotten recently. The Diamondbacks haven’t finished a season with a positive Runs Saved at third base since 2019. The last time they’ve had a third baseman record 6 Runs Saved in a season was Jake Lamb in 2015 (13).

  • Stat of the Week: New Year’s Resolutions

    Stat of the Week: New Year’s Resolutions

    Photo: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

    Are New Year’s Resolutions on your mind? They’re on ours, though we’re not usually successful at keeping them. Since we were thinking about them, we made a few for baseball players and teams, using our stats as the basis. See what you think.

    Joey Ortiz: I resolve to stop chasing pitches

    Joey Ortiz had a full plate in Milwaukee last year, moving to shortstop to replace fan favorite Willy Adames. Ortiz’s offensive numbers cratered as his OPS dropped from .726 in 2024 to .593 in 2025. Though his batting average dropped only 9 points, his on-base percentage dipped 53 and his slugging percentage fell 81.

    Ortiz had issues with his swing decisions. His chase rate increased from 27% to 36%. That 9 percentage-point increase (9.5 when not rounded) was the largest for anyone with at least 300 plate appearances in 2024 and 2025.

    If we were to give Ortiz a point of focus, that point would be “Everywhere!”
    Here are Ortiz’s chase rates by our slicing of pitch locations.

     Chase Rate By Location

    2024

    2025

    Inside

    36%

    46%

    Middle

    32%

    45%

    Outside

    19%

    28%

    Low

    23%

    33%

    Middle

    31%

    44%

    High

    30%

    38%

    Tigers outfielder Riley Greene had the second-biggest jump in chase rate. He also had a 4 percentage-point climb in strikeout rate and struck out 201 times in 2025.

    Nick Martinez: I resolve to get my chases back

    Nick Martinez accepted the $21 million qualifying offer from the Reds after coming off a career-best season in 2024. His ERA jumped from 3.10 to 4.45 in 2025. One potential culprit: His chase rate dropped by 7.5 percentage points, the biggest dip for any pitcher that threw at least 80 innings in both 2024 and 2025.

    Martinez wasn’t missing bats much to begin with. With fewer chases also came more walks, fewer strikeouts, and more home runs allowed. His chase rate dropped by 7 percentage points on his four-seam fastball (which got clobbered in 2025) and 14 percentage points on his changeup (his primary secondary pitch). He’s probably not going to get a lucrative deal this offseason.

    Nick Martinez – 2024 vs 2025

    2024

    2025

    K per 9

    7.3

    6.3

    BB per 9

    1.1

    2.3

    HR per 9

    0.8

    1.2

    ERA

    3.10

    4.45

    Marlins pitchers and catchers: We resolve to be better at limiting baserunner advancement

    The Marlins allowed 191 stolen bases last season. That was the most in the league by 34! They also had the second-fewest caught stealings (24) and fewest pickoffs (3). And to top it off, they had the most combined wild pitches and passed balls (90).

    That’s a lot to fix.

    The primary pitcher culprits were Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, who each allowed an MLB-high 35 stolen bases. At catcher Agustín Ramírez, who allowed 83 stolen bases and had only 8 caught stealings, and also led the majors in errors by a catcher (10) and wild pitches and passed balls allowed (55). He did all of this while ranking 30th in innings caught.

    Most Stolen Bases Allowed – 2025 Season

    Team

    SB Allowed

    Marlins

    191

    Astros

    157

    Braves

    152

    Rays

    152

    White Sox

    147

     C.J. Abrams: I resolve to be better at finishing plays

    If we were just judging shortstops at their skill at getting to balls, CJ Abrams would be pretty good. Only five shortstops had more Runs Saved from range than Abrams’ 7 last season.

    But Abrams finished with -6 Runs Saved overall because of the things that happened after he got to a ball, either his bobbling it or his not being able to throw a runner out when it was expected he’d do so.

    His -12 Throwing* Runs Saved were the worst of anyone in MLB last season. By our count he had an MLB-high 18 throwing errors and 5 Defensive Misplays related to throws (plays that were not errors but with a negative consequence). The 23 combined led MLB.

    Though the stat is labeled as “Throwing” at FieldingBible.com, it encompasses anything that happens after a fielder touches a ball.

    Most Throwing Errors & Defensive Misplays – 2025 Season

    Player

    Errors + Defensive Misplays

    CJ Abrams

    23

    Elly De La Cruz

    21

    Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    19

    Geraldo Perdomo

    15

    Anthony Volpe

    15

    Phillies Infielders: We resolve to be better on the double play

    The Phillies are a very good baseball team albeit one that hasn’t been the best defensively in recent seasons. They’ve had many issues but one they haven’t been able to shake has been their double play turns. We track both double play turns and opportunities (balls hit to a fielder with a man on first base and less than two outs). We convert the success rate into Double Play Runs Saved.

    Here’s how the Phillies have ranked the last three seasons.

    Double Play Runs Saved – 2025 Season

    Double Play Runs Saved

    Rank

    2023

    -10

    Last

    2024

    -12

    Last

    2025

    -12

    Last

    The common thread here is that the team’s double play combination in that time has been Trea Turner at shortstop and Bryson Stott at second base. In Stott’s case, he’s had Gold Glove caliber range numbers, but the issues with double play have hurt his chances of any sort of defensive award.

     They’re back for a fourth go at it in 2026.

    The Twins: We resolve to position our outfielders better

    Sort through the disastrous 2025 season for the Twins and you’ll see that the team finished 29th in Defensive Runs Saved. They totaled -21 Runs Saved at shortstop and -14 Runs Saved in right field.

    Additionally, they ranked last in Runs Saved accrued from the defensive positioning of their outfielders (-19). They were one of two teams to have a total of -10 or worse (Blue Jays -15). They had -7 Runs Saved on how they positioned Byron Buxton, the worst of any team for a center fielder last season.

    It should be pointed out that there are multiple things related to positioning and that some of the issue could be put on the pitching staff if it failed to execute its end of the game plan.

    Bottom 5 Teams in Defensive Runs Saved – 2025 Season

    Team

    Runs Saved

    Rockies

    -59

    Twins

    -46

    Angels

    -45

    Nationals

    -44

    Athletics

    -34
  • Stat of the Week: Our Year-End Awards

    Stat of the Week: Our Year-End Awards

    It’s been a tradition here to bestow awards on some year-end leaders in stats that only we track. A few years ago, we refreshed the list of leaders and I’m doing so again this year to give us an entirely defensive theme.

    Here are the award winners for 2025.

    The Homer Robber Award

    The title of this award speaks for itself. This one goes to the leader in home run robbing catches for 2025, which was Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. with 4 (here’s one example).

    This was a prolific season for home run robbing catches. There were 88 in 2025, easily surpassing the 78 of 2024 for the most in any season since we began fully tracking them in 2004.

    Most Home Run Robbing Catches – 2025 Season

    Player Good Fielding Plays
    Joey Ortiz 20
    Bryson Stott 20
    Ke’Bryan Hayes 19
    Ryan McMahon 18
    Brayan Rocchio 18

     The Who Needs A Glove Award?

    This award goes to the player with the most successful barehand plays. This works better if we separate this by catchers, third basemen, and others. Catchers are often fielding barehands that have come to a stop and that are right in front of the plate. Patrick Bailey led the position with 15, two more than Cal Raleigh.

    Third basemen get the most barehand opportunities, which is why its best to separate them from other fielders too. This award could have been named for Nolan Arenado, who annually ranked as a leader in the prime of his career. But among third basemen this year, Alex Bregman of the Red Sox actually led with 13 successful plays, two more than Ke’Bryan Hayes and Maikel Garcia. Arenado finished with 10, fourth-most among third basemen.

    The leader among those who don’t play third base or catcher was Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo, who had 6 (this one in particular was pretty good).

    Most Barehand Plays – 2025 Season

    Player Barehand Plays
    Patrick Bailey 15
    Cal Raleigh 13
    Alex Bregman 13
    Elias Diaz 12
    Drake Baldwin 11
    Ke’Bryan Hayes 11
    William Contreras 11
    Maikel Garcia 11

    The Vacuum Cleaner Award

    SIS Video Scouts also track what are known as “Good Fielding Plays,” which are often those that lead to the unlikely recording of an out. Those can be broken up into different subtypes, including one just for ground balls. The leader in Good Fielding Plays on ground balls is the winner of our Vacuum Cleaner Award.

    This year’s winners were Brewers shortstop Joey Ortiz and Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott. Ortiz finished with -2 Runs Saved in his first full time season there as a major leaguer and Stott totaled 0 at second base, as making lots of Good Fielding Plays doesn’t necessarily translate to a high Runs Saved total. Stott’s issue wasn’t range. He had -6 Runs Saved from the Phillies’ difficulty turning double plays.

    Nonetheless, both had their share of Web Gem-caliber highlight-reel moments (one example from Ortiz, one from Stott).

    Most Good Fielding Plays – Ground Balls

    Player Good Fielding Plays
    Joey Ortiz 20
    Bryson Stott 20
    Ke’Bryan Hayes 19
    Ryan McMahon 18
    Brayan Rocchio 18

    The Fly Swatter Award

    The Fly Swatter Award is a similar award to The Vacuum Cleaner, except it’s for Good Fielding Plays resulting in outs on fly balls and line drives. The leaders were Tigers left fielder Riley Greene and Twins/Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader with 19 apiece.

    Greene, the 2024 Fielding Bible Award winner in left field, slipped to -5 Runs Saved in 2025, though his primary issue was not catching balls (here’s one he ran down) but rather baserunner advancement on balls he fielded. Bader is one of the top defensive players in this year’s free agent class.

    Most Good Fielding Plays – Fly Balls

    Player Good Fielding Plays
    Riley Greene 19
    Harrison Bader 19
    Victor Scott II 17
    Nathan Lukes 17
    Brenton Doyle 16
    Lawrence Butler 16

     

    Stolen Base Stopper

    The awards for the Stolen Base Stopper go to the catcher and pitcher who had the most Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2025.

    Red Sox catcher Carlos Narváez had 7 Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2025, most among all catchers. Narvaez threw out 25 of 100 runners attempting to steal and also had 3 pickoffs. You could also make a case for Luis Torrens, who had 6 Stolen Base Runs Saved and threw out 20 of 49 basestealers (41%).

    For pitchers, Matthew Boyd led the way with 5 Stolen Base Runs Saved. Boyd had 8 pickoffs and 3 pitcher caught stealings. His 11 combined pickoffs and caught stealing were easily the most in MLB.

    The Hall of Framer

    The Hall of Framer award goes to the catcher who had the best pitch-framing numbers in 2025. In our world, that means the catcher who had the most called strikes above expectations (we call this stat Strike Zone Plus-Minus).

    Patrick Bailey was the runaway leader in this stat for the second straight year. He finished 120 called strikes above expectations. Austin Wells of the Yankees and Alejandro Kirk of the Blue Jays were a distant second with 79.

    Austin Hedges was the leader in this stat on a per-pitch basis. He ranked 4th overall in called strikes above expectations.

    Bailey’s leadership in this stat factored into winning a bigger award than this, our Defensive Player of the Year award (which was announced with the Fielding Bible Awards).

    To learn more about our pitch-framing methodology, read the paper from our award-winning presentation at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

  • Stat Of The Week: Good To See Alex Gordon On The Hall Of Fame Ballot

    Stat Of The Week: Good To See Alex Gordon On The Hall Of Fame Ballot

    Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire

    The Hall of Fame ballot came out a few weeks ago and so we’re in for lots of debates and discussions and everything that comes with one of the most polarizing topics in sports.

    This is not a strong ballot when it comes to first-time candidates, with Cole Hamels the best of them and he’s not likely to be elected this year.

    We like to focus on defense here so I want to address someone more likely to get 5 votes from the BBWAA than the 5% needed to stay on the ballot, let alone the 75% needed for induction, and that’s former Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon.

    Gordon hit .257 with a .748 OPS in a career that spanned 14 seasons, one that began when he was drafted No. 2 overall in 2005 and heralded as one of the game’s top prospects when recalled in 2007.

    Gordon peaked from 2011 to 2014, when he averaged just under 6 bWAR and 156 games played per season. His most memorable moment is a ninth-inning game-tying home run in Game 1 of the 2015 World Series, one the Royals went on to win. He dipped a bit as a hitter in his last five seasons, which cost him 35 points off his career OPS.

    But it’s Gordon the fielder that we want to talk about. He’s the left field overall leader in Defensive Runs Saved dating back to when the stat was first tracked in 2003. He also won 4 Fielding Bible Awards, the most of any left fielder (Steven Kwan has 3 and could catch him next year).

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Left Field – Since Runs Saved First Tracked In 2003

    Player

    Runs Saved

    Alex Gordon

    117

    Brett Gardner

    101

    Starling Marte

    73

    Carl Crawford

    69

    Steven Kwan

    68

    How did Gordon record that many Runs Saved?

    We have three areas in which players can receive Runs Saved: Range, Outfield Arm, and Good Plays & Defensive Misplays and Errors.

    Gordon finished his career with 40 Range Runs Saved. That’s a decent total. It ranks fifth overall but is well behind the leader, Brett Gardner’s 79. Where Gordon stood out at his position was in both the Outfield Arm and Good Plays & Misplays, as those account for 77 of his Runs Saved.

    Gordon totaled 51 Outfield Arm Runs Saved and also recorded 26 Runs Saved from his balance of Good Plays and Misplays.” Each of those rank No. 1 overall among left fielders.

    Outfield Arm is largely self-explanatory. You get rewarded when baserunners don’t take an extra base on hits, get a spike if you throw someone out, and get penalized if someone goes first to third or second to home. Gordon was known for his arm and earned a lot of value here. (Here’s a refresher in case you forgot)

    Good Plays and Misplays

    I want to spend more time on Good Plays and Misplays. For the last 20-plus years, we’ve been tracking not just highlight-reel catches but also little things like if a fielder cuts a ball off in the gap and prevents a baserunner from advancing.

    Most Good Play/Misplay Runs Saved – Left Fielders

    Player

    Runs Saved

    Alex Gordon

    26

    Jason Bay

    21

    Melky Cabrera

    18

    Starling Marte

    17

    We’ve also tracked times that a fielder does or doesn’t do something that allows a batter to advance an extra base (the fielder gets credit for “holds to double” or “holds to single”). They’re admittedly a judgement call but the judgement is based on careful consideration by our trained group of Data Scouts.

    Gordon had 46 “holds to single” in his career. You can see some examples here, here, and here. An average left fielder who played as much as Gordon did would have been expected to have 31 of them, 15 fewer than Gordon had. The differential translates to about 4.5 Runs Saved.

    Most “Holds To Single” By Left Fielder (2007-2020)

    Player

    Holds To Single

    Alex Gordon

    46

    Daniel Nava

    27

    Raul Ibanez

    26

    Carl Crawford

    26

    Andrew Benintendi

    23

    Matt Holliday

    23

    One of those Defensive Misplay and Error categories is “Mishandling Ball After Safe Hit,” which is something that is sometimes obvious and scored an error and sometimes not scored one. We count both the obvious and not-so-obvious plays.

    In his career, Gordon had 17 instances of “Mishandling Ball After Safe Hit.” An average defender that played as often as Gordon did would have been expected to have 40 such Misplays and Errors.

    The 23-play difference is worth roughly 9.5 Runs Saved, a nice reward for being a careful fielder.

    We’re not here to say that you should be voting for Gordon for the Hall of Fame based on the numbers we’ve shared. He’s not a strong candidate when you consider the totality of what he was as a player. But it is fair to say that he’s one of baseball’s best defensive players of the last 25 years and we enjoy being able to acknowledge him as such.

  • Stat of the Week: Who Were MLB’s Most Underachieving Starting Pitchers in 2025?

    Stat of the Week: Who Were MLB’s Most Underachieving Starting Pitchers in 2025?

    It’s kind of scary to think but Garrett Crochet could have been even better than he was in 2025.

    Crochet finished the season with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts in 205 1/3 innings pitched. He placed second in the AL Cy Young voting and eighth in the AL MVP voting.

    The idea that he could have been better stems from this: Crochet allowed 24 home runs. But by our expected stats measurement tools, he was expected to allow only 18 based on the batted ball type, where the ball was hit and how hard it was hit.

    A brief point of explanation:

    Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and therefore single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

    This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats to see if they fared better or worse than perhaps they could have.

    Some examples for Crochet include:

    A front-row home run to right field at Steinbrenner Field by Rays shortstop Carson Williams (LINK), and front-row shots over the Green Monster in left field by Byron Buxton (LINK) and Amed Rosario (LINK).

    Crochet had a .617 OPS against in 2025, which ranked 18th-lowest (minimum 400 batters faced). His expected OPS of .553 was the lowest among that same set of pitchers.

    Logan Webb of the Giants experienced something similar with doubles. He allowed 49, 14 more than his expected total. Webb got the worst defensive support on the batted balls against him of any pitcher in baseball. Here’s two examples of balls that could have been caught that turned into doubles (LINK, LINK), both missed by Giants left fielder Heliot Ramos.

    Crochet and Webb are two of the headline names on our list of pitchers who underachieved the most in 2025. In this case, we’re defining underachieved as yielding an OPS higher than our stats expected. Another is recent Blue Jays free agent signee Dylan Cease, whom we previously wrote about for the lack of defensive support that the Padres gave him last season. He ranked second to Webb in terms of least defensive support gotten on batted balls.

    Here’s the list of pitchers who underachieved by the largest amounts OPS-wise.

    Biggest Differential – Actual OPS and Expected OPS in 2025

    Minimum 400 Batters Faced

    Pitcher

    2025 OPS

    Expected OPS

    Differential

    Antonio Senzatela

    .949

    .855

    .094

    Aaron Nola

    .805

    .715

    .090

    Ben Brown

    .800

    .734

    .066

    Ryan Gusto

    .805

    .741

    .064

    Garrett Crochet

    .617

    .553

    .064

    Dylan Cease

    .717

    .654

    .063

    Logan Webb

    .694

    .631

    .063

    Jonathan Cannon

    .838

    .779

    .059

    Tanner Bibee

    .720

    .664

    .056

    Cade Povich

    .812

    .758

    .055

     Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies tops this list. He had the worst OPS allowed in MLB (.949) but he wasn’t much better by expected OPS. His .855 was the fourth-highest.

    Phillies starter Aaron Nola was right behind Senzatela. He had a 6.01 ERA during the regular season and his .805 OPS against was 15th-highest, but his .715 expected OPS allowed was almost right in the middle of the pool of 135 pitchers (61st-highest). Nola’s season was nowhere near his usual standards, but it also seems like it wasn’t as bad as it looked

    Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee’s season also fell into that category. His .720 OPS against was 56 points higher than his expected OPS. The latter, .664, ranked in the 77th percentile among this group of pitchers (31st overall).

    Seven of the 10 pitchers on last year’s list of biggest underachievers had lower ERAs in 2025 than they did in 2024, though a couple changed roles and became relievers (Reid Detmers and Chris Flexen).

    The biggest ‘hit’ among the 2024 underachievers was Hunter Brown, whose ERA dropped from 3.49 to 2.43, though you could make a case that you could have seen that coming with the way he closed the 2024 season. Others whose ERA improved significantly from 2024 to 2025 were Taijuan Walker and Logan Allen.

    As we’ve said with each of these articles, caveats apply. If you’re on the list of underachievers, you’re not guaranteed to be better in 2026. You still have to go out there and inevitably get some outs in difficult situations.

  • Phillies Make A Massive Defensive Upgrade With Adolis García

    Phillies Make A Massive Defensive Upgrade With Adolis García

    You likely won’t see a bigger defensive upgrade this offseason than the one the Phillies just made in right field. 

    The Phillies signed free agent Adolis García to a one-year, $10 million contract. The expectation is that they’ll follow this up by trading or releasing their regular right fielder of the last four years, Nick Castellanos.

    By small sample or larger sample, there is no comparison between García and Castellanos defensively.

    If we look at last 5 seasonsAdolis García 36 (2nd-most in MLB)Nick Castellanos -51 (fewest)

    — Sports Info Solutions (@sportsinfosolutions.com) 2025-12-15T17:39:10.089Z

    And that’s even with a rough -5 Runs Season from García in 2024. That appears not to be the norm.

    And yes, we know that Castellanos has not made an error in three of the last four seasons but Defensive Runs Saved is a more sophisticated stat than errors. It takes into account what you did and did not reach. It’s easy to avoid making errors when you don’t reach balls. Castellanos had the 9th-worst “jump” stats of any outfielder in baseball last year, as measured by MLB. 

    In looking at Castellanos’ most-penalized plays last season, there was a mix of issues related to communication (particularly with second baseman Bryson Stott) and hesitation.  

    * Jump measures how much ground you cover compared to an average outfielder. Castellanos rated 2.4 feet fewer than average.

     

     

    García’s strength had not necessarily been getting to balls but in 2025 he was better at it than he had ever been before. He had by far the best Range Runs Saved numbers of his career. This was driven by an abundance of nice catches on shallow fly balls. Stott shouldn’t have to feel like he’s got to go for every ball anymore because García has (at least last season) a knack for reaching what needs to be reached.

     

    And how about this for coincidences. One of García’s best catches of the season (at least on a shallow fly ball) came against … Castellanos!

    That’s not to say that García doesn’t have flaws. He fared poorly against balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark. But overall he still rated far ahead of Castellanos.

    Plays Saved Above Average In 2025 – By Depth

    Shallow Medium Deep
    García +15 +8 -5
    Castellanos 0 -7 -3

    * Plays Saved Above Average = our version of MLB’s Outs Above Average 

    To put some raw numbers behind it, here are the outs made and opportunities for each fielder on shallow and medium balls.

    García: 199/264 (expected to make 176 plays, made 199)

    Castellanos: 164/252 (expected to make 171 plays, made 164)

    * Opportunities are any ball on which the player has a >0% chance to record an out

    Outfield Arm

    There is likewise not much of a comparison between García’s arm and Castellanos’ arm. Last season, García had 4 Outfield Arm Runs Saved, Castellanos had -2. García has a history of being consistently good. Castellanos does not.

    Outfield Arm Runs Saved – Right Field, Last 5 Seasons

    Player OF Arm Runs Saved Rank
    García 24 1st
    Castellanos -12 Last

    To show the raw numbers, again over a longer period of time, we can look at the rate that baserunners advanced an extra base on hits fielded by each player over the last five seasons (meaning how often they went 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on singles, or 1st to home on a double).

    Player Advances – Opportunities Advance Rate* Assists without cutoff man
    García 170-425 40% 29
    Castellanos 281-524 54% 18

    * Read this as: “40% of baserunners advanced an extra base on hits against Garcia, 54% did against Castellanos”

    Here are three examples of García putting his arm to good use last season.

     

     

    Defense has been an issue for the Phillies for several years. They haven’t finished in the top half of the majors since 2019. Swapping out Castellanos for García should improve the team’s outfield defense considerably. Castellanos was a fan favorite and did have a great postseason defensively in 2022. But what Castellanos did then, García has done on the regular.

  • Who Were MLB’s Most Overachieving Starting Pitchers in 2025?

    Who Were MLB’s Most Overachieving Starting Pitchers in 2025?

    You had to figure that when we released our list of the pitchers that overperformed their expected numbers the most in 2025 that Trevor Rogers would be on it.

    In 18 starts, the Orioles lefty pitched to a 1.81 ERA and allowed 70 hits in 109 2/3 innings. He did that while striking out less than a batter per inning and with a hard-hit rate that ranked in the 3rd percentile (48%). And his home runs per 9 innings rate was about half his previous career rate.

    Rogers’ expected OPS allowed was .503, the third-lowest by any pitcher in the last 10 seasons (minimum 100 innings). His expected OPS allowed was .634.

    The 131-point differential between his expected (.634) and allowed (.503) was by far the largest in MLB in 2025 (minimum 400 batters faced, a pool of 135 pitchers).

    A brief point of explanation:

    Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and therefore single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, and how long they spend in the air.

    This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats to see if they fared better or worse than perhaps they could have.

    Here’s the list of pitchers with the greatest differential between their expected OPS and their actual OPS. Think of them as a group whose actual 2025 numbers could have been worse under different circumstances.

    Biggest Differential – Expected OPS and Actual OPS

    2025 Season (Minimum 400 Batters Faced)

    Pitcher

    Expected OPS Allowed

    OPS Allowed

    Differential

    Trevor Rogers

    .634

    .503

    .131

    Noah Cameron

    .729

    .641

    .087

    Spencer Schwellenbach

    .702

    .618

    .084

    Janson Junk

    .767

    .686

    .081

    Nick Pivetta

    .663

    .583

    .080

    Jose Quintana

    .776

    .698

    .078

    Cade Horton

    .692

    .615

    .077

    Mitchell Parker

    .873

    .797

    .076

    Grant Holmes

    .789

    .715

    .074

    Merrill Kelly

    .734

    .661

    .073

    To be clear, a .634 expected OPS is still excellent. It’s just not as great as his actual numbers. Rogers had the lowest actual OPS allowed among these 135 pitchers. He had the 17th-lowest expected OPS. His expected runs allowed of 39 (using Bill James’ Runs Created) would have given him an ERA likely in the low 3s instead of his season-ending 1.81.

    With the second pitcher on this list, Royals rookie Noah Cameron, his ERA-FIP differential (2.99 vs 4.18) also gives us a sense that he overperformed in 2025. His actual OPS was 87 points lower than his expected OPS and for where Cameron was, that’s a big difference.

    A .641 OPS allowed ranked 25th overall, meaning he was in the top 20% of our pool of pitchers.

    A .729 expected OPS allowed ranks 78th, which puts him outside the top half of that group, which makes sense given what his FIP was. He goes from being considered a pretty good pitcher to a below-average one.

    Other pitchers in this top 10, such as Spencer Schwellenbach and Cade Horton, experience dips too, though not as extreme as Cameron’s. Schwellenbach goes from 19th-lowest OPS to 48th-lowest expected OPS allowed. Horton goes from 16th to 37th.

    Free agent Merrill Kelly actually made our Top 10 list for the second straight season. He’s had an OPS at least 50 points lower than his expected OPS four times in the last six seasons (excluding 2020). Kelly has typically gotten very good defensive support behind him. The Diamondbacks and Rangers have 32 Runs Saved behind him in the last four seasons, 6th-most in MLB.

    We can trace the success of many of the pitchers on the list above to the work that defenses did behind them. The Braves had 12 runs saved behind Schwellenbach (5 of those attributable to Schwellenbach, himself) and 11 Runs Saved for Grant Holmes. The Royals had 10 Runs Saved for Cameron. The Brewers had 10 for Jose Quintana.

    This article was meant to focus on starting pitchers, but if we lower the qualifier to 250 batters faced to include relievers, the three relievers with the largest differentials were Pirates closer Dennis Santana (expected OPS 122 points higher than actual OPS), Phillies reliever Tanner Banks (103), recent Braves signee Robert Suarez (100), and free agent Shawn Armstrong (100). Suarez had gotten great defensive support from the Padres throughout his career, including 5 Runs Saved (a high total for a reliever) in 2025.

    On last year’s list, 7 of the 9 pitchers listed among our biggest overachievers had their ERA increase from 2024 to 2025, 6 by more than a full run (one didn’t pitch, Derek Law). Kelly and Kevin Gausman were the only ones whose ERAs improved. Among those with big ERA increases were David Peterson, Tyler Holton, and Bowden Francis.

    That’s not to say what will happen in 2026, but it gives you an indication of some pitchers to keep an eye on heading into next year.

  • Stat of the Week: MLB’s Most Overachieving Hitters in 2025

    Stat of the Week: MLB’s Most Overachieving Hitters in 2025

    Baseball isn’t supposed to be as easy as it was for Aaron Judge and Nick Kurtz in 2025. Judge had an OPS of 1.144. Kurtz finished at 1.002. They won the AL MVP and Rookie of the Year, respectively.

    For players to put up those kinds of numbers, they need to be great hitters, but they need some things to go their way too.

    By our measures, they did.

    Sports Info Solutions tracks its own version of a player’s expected stats (similar to what you can find on Baseball Savant). Rather than basing a player’s hit probability (and subsequently single, double, triple, and home run probability) on a batted ball’s exit velocity and launch angle, SIS’ version estimates probabilities based on where balls are hit, how hard they are hit, how long they spend in the air, and the speed of the batter, as well as the ballpark in which the ball was hit. Important to note: defensive positioning is NOT taken into account.

    This allows us to compare a player’s actual stats to his expected stats.

    Kurtz had an expected OPS of .877, which is terrific. But it’s not as otherworldly as 1.002. The 125-point gap between his actual OPS and expected OPS is the biggest such differential in MLB.

    Judge’s gap was 96 points. His expected OPS was still otherworldly at 1.048.

    There can be a few reasons why a player exceeds his expected OPS. Defenses had -13 Runs Saved on balls hit by Judge (-6 for Kurtz) which certainly helped him out when he wasn’t hitting balls out of the ballpark. Kurtz also had 22 of his 36 home runs at home in hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, which helped his final stat line.

    Here’s a list of the 10 players whose OPS was most above their expected OPS, among those with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.

    Biggest Differential, OPS and Expected OPS, 2025 Season

    Minimum 300 Plate Appearances

    Player

    2025 OPS

    Expected OPS

    Differential

    Nick Kurtz

    1.002

    .877

    -.125

    Miguel Andujar

    .822

    .699

    -.123

    Harrison Bader

    .796

    .678

    -.118

    Yandy Díaz

    .848

    .739

    -.109

    Aaron Judge

    1.144

    1.048

    -.096

    Jake Mangum

    .698

    .604

    -.094

    Riley Greene

    .806

    .717

    -.089

    Jonathan Aranda

    .883

    .794

    -.089

    Jordan Westburg

    .770

    .684

    -.086

    Isaac Paredes

    .809

    .725

    -.084

    Kurtz and Judge were still superstars by their expected OPS numbers. But that’s not the case for the others on this list. There are a handful of players who – if they had hit at their expected numbers rather than their actual ones – would have had a season perceived differently than their season was.

    Miguel Andujar has a little bit of a smaller sample than others (321 at-bats) got hot at the end of the season with the Reds and finished the season with an .822 OPS. The perception of his season would have been completely different had he hit his expected OPS of .699.

    Andujar had 23 hits on balls with an expected hit probability below 30%. Those balls should have netted him 5 hits. Instead, they resulted in 23.

    Harrison Bader is another good example. Bader finished with an OPS close to .800 but an expected OPS of .678. The .678 was more in line with his 2022, 2023, and 2024 actual OPS.

    Bader got particularly hot after being traded from the Twins to the Phillies. He hit .305 in 50 games with the Phillies but had 9 hits more than his expected total (54 instead of 45), which bumped his batting average with them up by 51 points. A bunch of infield hits (examples here, here, and here) were key to that.

    Another example of a different nature is Rays DH and first baseman Yandy Díaz, who had 21 hits more than his expected total (no one had more than him and Bader). The actual versus expected OPS differential for Díaz was 109 points, primarily because Díaz hit 25 home runs but had an expected total of only 17.

    Of those 25 home runs 18 came in Steinbrenner Field. Díaz took full advantage of right field there with several of his home runs clearing the wall by only a little bit (examples here, here, and here).

    Looking back to last year’s list of overachievers, 8 of the 10 had an actual OPS decline from 2024 to 2025 of at least 118 points. Notable names whose performance dipped significantly in 2025 included Connor Wong, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Iglesias, and Carlos Correa.

    Player

    2024 OPS

    2025 OPS

    Connor Wong

    .758

    .500

    Tyler O’Neill

    .847

    .684

    Jose Iglesias

    .830

    .592

    Carlos Correa

    .905

    .734

    Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr., superstars similar to Kurtz and Judge, were also in that Top 10 list of 2024 overachievers. Their 2025 numbers didn’t match their 2024 ones but they were still superstars even with the drop in OPS.

    Caveats apply when considering any future ramifications here. Just because the players on this list could have been worse in 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be worse in 2026. There are no guarantees in baseball. The wonder of who will overachieve and who will underachieve is one of the things that keeps us watching.