Sports Info Solutions

Log In

Author: Ted Baarda

  • The Silent Contributor to the Rise of Catcher’s Interference

    The Silent Contributor to the Rise of Catcher’s Interference

    In the wake of Willson Contreras’s brutal injury, catcher’s interference has found its way into the spotlight. A lot of the discourse has focused on the rise of catcher’s interference (and the injury risk that goes with it) due to catchers setting up closer to home plate to try to frame low strikes. While that is a big factor, another cause in the rise of catcher’s interference calls is replay review.

    The Data

    Catcher’s Interference became a reviewable play that teams can challenge in 2020, and it has been a call that teams have success challenging. From 2020 through 2023, catcher’s interference challenges have been successful 69% of the time, with a success rate about 10% higher than the next most successful replay category (force plays).

    Season Total Catcher’s Interference Catcher’s Interference Challenges Challenges Overturned
    2018 41
    2019 60
    2020* 35 7 4
    2021 61 17 11
    2022 74 25 19
    2023 96 21 14

    From Experience I Know: It’s A Tough Call To Make

    From personal experience having umpired amateur softball for 9 years, catcher’s interference can be a tricky call to make. As the pitcher starts their windup, you are making sure that the delivery is legal, and once the pitch is released you are tracking the ball to see if it ends up in the strike zone. If the batter starts to swing, then you also have to consider if the batter did swing or not. Processing this while tracking rapidly moving objects and listening for sounds is tricky at the best of times.

    Was the pitch high? The catcher will be reaching up for it, and possibly blocking your view with their glove.

    Did you hear two sounds in rapid succession on the swing? Was that catcher’s interference, or was it a foul tip?

    Sometimes you get lucky and there is an obvious call, like if the batter knocks the catcher’s glove off their hand, but it isn’t always that easy.

    Also consider the rarity of catcher’s interference. MLB employs 19 crews of 4 umpires, for a total of 76 full-time umpires (not including call-ups). Even in 2022, there was less than 1 catcher’s interference called per full-time umpire over the entire season. Generally your first instinct when making a call will not be that catcher’s interference happened.

    Diving deeper into catcher’s interference challenges, they are often challenged by the batting team, and frequently they are challenged on check swings. That is an important nuance, as a checked swing will not make a loud noise by hitting the catcher’s glove at max speed (hence the title of the article). Also, a checked swing will not knock the glove off the catcher’s hand, and is less likely to cause the catcher to react in pain. This limits the two key cues that tell umpires catcher’s interference happened.

    A checked swing will also split the umpire’s concentration even more. Trying to determine if the pitch was in the zone, if the batter went around, and then if the bat made contact with the glove in a fraction of a second is very difficult.

    For example

    An example from April 27 of this year shows this perfectly as Cavan Biggio initially strikes out while checking his swing. Home plate umpire John Tumpane initially calls a strike three looking, then follows that up with a foul tip signal, before getting together with the rest of his crew. In the end the Blue Jays challenge for catcher’s interference and the call gets overturned. 

     

    MLB Ramifications

    Diving into 2023 as the most recent full season, there are two main takeaways. Of the 14 overturned catcher’s interference challenges, 12 of them resulted in catcher’s interference being awarded when it had not initially been called. Of those 12 plays, 6 were plays where the batter had attempted to check his swing.

    Had catcher’s interference challenges not existed in 2023, there would have only been 86 catcher’s interferences instead of 96, due to the 10 net catcher’s interferences added after challenges. This is still a large uptick from previous seasons.

    However, applying the same logic to 2021 and 2022, catchers were getting hit with the bat at roughly the same rate as 2019, just that more were being called catcher’s interferences due to team challenges.

    Catcher’s interference is definitely on the rise, and while that is due in part to catchers trying to steal more strikes, the use of technology to assist umpires in making a difficult call correctly (which replay is supposed to do) is contributing to that rise as well.

  • World Baseball Classic Preview: KBO Hitters & Fielders

    World Baseball Classic Preview: KBO Hitters & Fielders

    South Korea is typically a strong nation in international baseball competitions, and this year’s World Baseball Classic team is a favorite to advance out of their pool. Team Korea’s lineup will be headlined by Cardinals shortstop Tommy Edman and Padres infielder Ha-seong Kim, with former Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim playing a supporting role, among others. 

    Outside of those three, many players in key spots will be unfamiliar to many North American fans. So let’s preview some of their key players from the KBO, a league that we watch intently here at Sports Info Solutions:

    The Young Bats

    Team Korea has two young left-handed hitters who will line up in the middle of the order for the WBC. The first is Jung-hoo Lee, a 24-year-old outfielder for the Kiwoom Heroes. Lee is the best pure hitter in the KBO, with a career batting average of .342 and more career walks than strikeouts. Last season Lee did his best Tony Gwynn impression, posting a tiny 5% strikeout rate with an 11% walk rate.

    His bat to ball skills and discipline are paired with modest game power, though his raw power suggests more room for growth. Lee ranked fourth in the KBO last season with an average exit velocity of 89 MPH according to our Synthetic Statcast model (SIS replicates Statcast data for non-MLB leagues), and he also finished in the top 10 in hard-hit rate (38%) and expected BABIP (.388). His swing currently produces a lot of line drives, which limits his ability to drive balls out of the park, though the raw power he has suggests he could sacrifice some batting average for more power with mechanical changes.

    Defensively Lee has played exclusively in center field the last two seasons, and will likely line up in center for Team Korea. He is a natural athlete, but doesn’t have the elite instincts needed to play a high-end center field and profiles better in a corner spot long-term. His baserunning is similar, as he is a good baserunner due to his natural athleticism, but does not have elite speed or base stealing ability.

    Lee will be hoping to use the WBC as a chance to showcase his hitting skills against elite pitchers, as he is expected to be posted by Kiwoom after the 2023 season. His first chance to test himself will be against Team Japan in pool play, with Japan having one of the deepest pitching staffs in the tournament.

    Joining Lee in the heart of the lineup will be KT Wiz first baseman Baek-ho Kang. Kang is very much a bat-first player who has adjusted his approach during his time in the KBO. In his rookie season Kang set his career highs in home runs (29) and strikeouts (124), but since then has traded some home run power for more contact and gap power.

    Despite his strong performances in the KBO, there are some storylines worth following with Kang in the WBC. He took a lot of criticism for how he reacted to Korea’s disappointing fourth- place finish in the Tokyo Olympics, though he did hit .308 with a double and 4 RBI over the tournament.

    Kang also dealt with some adversity in the KBO for the first time last year. He missed the first couple of months of the season with a toe injury, and also missed a month and a half with a hamstring injury. Between the injuries Kang struggled to produce at the plate for the first time in his career, posting career lows in many categories in his statline. 

    His advanced metrics show how much the injuries limited his game. His hard-hit rate dropped from 33% to 26%, and his average exit velocity was down by 1 MPH. Despite increasing his average launch angle in 2022, he set a new career low with only 6 home runs and a .371 SLG over 62 games. He will be looking to rebound in 2023, and hopefully a strong showing in the WBC will help him get off to a good start this year.

    The KBO Veterans

    Beyond the MLB players and potential future stars, Team Korea has some veteran players rounding out the lineup from the KBO. Alongside Hyun-soo Kim, who fans likely remember from his time in Baltimore, Byung-ho Park is the other position player with MLB experience. Park signed a four-year deal with the Minnesota Twins before 2016, but struggled in his limited MLB opportunities. He requested his release two years into the contract to return to the KBO.

    Park was a notable prospect for his power, which he did show in his brief MLB look, hitting 12 home runs in 62 games. Now 36 years old, Park is still hitting the ball hard as he led the KBO in hard hit rate last year at 41%, while also finishing second in average exit velocity (just under 90 MPH) and sixth in average launch angle (just over 18 degrees).

    Park’s continued success hitting for power has him fourth all-time in KBO home runs despite a slow start to his career and missing two of his prime years playing in North America. At 362 career home runs, he is only 12 behind Dae-ho Lee for third all-time.

    Park will likely line up at first base for Team Korea, with fellow KT Wiz teammate Baek-ho Kang will likely be the DH. The veteran Park is a much better defender, and won the KBO Fielding Bible Award at first base this past season.

    Across the diamond at third base will be another KBO veteran, and one of the most accomplished KBO hitters in history, in Jeong Choi. He produced a SLG above .500 in each season since 2010 and from 2010-2021 he had an OPS of .900 or better every year, falling just below that benchmark in 2022 (.891).

    Choi ranks 17th in KBO history in hits and is second all-time in home runs. He is only 7 hits away from reaching 2,000 career KBO hits, and is 38 home runs behind Seung-yeop Lee  in all-time KBO home runs.

    Choi’s formula for success is quite simple, as he hits the ball hard and in the air. Choi led the KBO in average launch angle last season, checking in just under 22 degrees. Combining that with his good raw power (he’s in the top 25 in average exit velocity and hard hit rate) allows him to maximize his power output.

    Team Korea will also rely on a veteran behind the plate, with 14-year veteran catcher Eui-ji Yang of the NC Dinos. Yang is a solid defender, having won the 2020 KBO Fielding Bible Award at catcher, and has plenty of experience calling games and leading pitching staffs.

    However, Yang really shines in the batter’s box. He has always been able to make contact, evidenced by high batting averages and low strikeout rates, but he tapped into more power later in his career by increasing his launch angle. He has walked more than he has struck out in four of the last five seasons, while posting his best power numbers during that time as well.

    In the outfield, Sung-bum Na will look to add some power from the left side of the plate to Team Korea’s lineup. Na attracted some interest from MLB teams after the 2020 season, but was unable to find a contract to his liking and returned to the KBO. Na has big power, and in 2021 he finished in the top 5 in average exit velocity and hard hit rate in the KBO. He didn’t quite match that in 2022 but still had solid numbers in those areas.

    Na also features some flaws in his game that can be exploited. He strikes out a lot, with his strikeout rate sitting between 20% and 25% each of the last few seasons. He has been in the top three in the KBO in strikeouts in each of the last three seasons.

    Na also dealt with a gruesome injury in 2019, and his mobility has suffered since returning. He is not a threat on the bases, and he has lost range in the outfield. Expect him to be replaced with a defensive replacement or pinch runner in the WBC.

    The KBO Fielding Bible Award Winners

    The KBO is not a league known for having elite defense. Most position players in the league are rated below MLB average by DRS, and some drastically so. However, Team Korea has made sure to fill the roster with some of the best defensive players in the country, particularly ones who grade out as MLB average or better.

    On the infield, Hye-seong Kim of Kiwoom has won two KBO Fielding Bible Awards at second base (2020 and 2022), as well as the 2020 multi-position Fielding Bible Award. Primarily a second baseman with Kiwoom, he was the double play partner of Ha-seong Kim before he joined the Padres. Hye-seong Kim has also played shortstop and left field in recent seasons, and could also pinch run for Team Korea in the WBC (he has three seasons of at least 30 steals, with a career best of 46).

    Also available on the infield is Ji-hwan Oh, who has won the KBO Fielding Bible Award at shortstop in each of the last two seasons. He likely would have battled Hye-seong Kim for a starting role on Team Korea had Tommy Edman not joined the team for the WBC.

    Since we started awarding the KBO Fielding Bible Awards in 2020, the center field award has been won by either Hae-min Park (2020 and 2022) and Ji-hoon Choi (2021). Both players are on Team Korea for the WBC, and could either start in center field (moving Jung-hoo Lee to a corner) or more likely come off the bench to upgrade the corner outfield defense in the late innings.

    Park is a speedster who covers a lot of ground and can steal bases, though he has cut back on his stolen bases a little as he entered his thirties. At 25 years old, Ji-hoon Choi is 7 years younger than Park, though he is a very similar player as a left-handed hitting speedster with modest power.

    Team Korea has built a well-balanced roster for the WBC, with some young stars, veteran leaders and quality supporting players. A big test for this position player group in pool play will be how they manage to do against the powerful pitching staff of Team Japan. Once out of pool play, the pitching it faces is expected to be much tougher, and their hitters ability to adjust to high-end pitchers will determine how far the team goes.

  • WBC Preview: Team Korea Pitchers to Watch

    WBC Preview: Team Korea Pitchers to Watch

    Almost every team in the World Baseball Classic struggles with pitching depth. With pitch counts and pitchers still stretching out for the season, teams need contributions from all over their roster. Team Korea is no exception, as it will be missing two pitchers who could have been rotation anchors in Hyun-jin Ryu and KBO ace Woo-jin An (note, you may see some of these names differently depending on where you see them – Korean naming convention is traditionally last name first).

    Team Korea will still feature pitchers with plenty of experience in the KBO, and a couple with MLB experience as well in Kwang-hyun Kim (2020-21 with St. Louis) and Hyeon-jong Yang (2021 with Texas). Beyond those two, the team features pitchers who have performed well domestically in the KBO as well.

    At Sports Info Solutions, we watch a lot of KBO as part of the data tracking we do. So we’re well-versed in their players. We will be highlighting some of their top pitchers here.

    Potential Starters

    Kwang-hyun Kim will be the ace of Team Korea, but how the rest of the rotation lines up is still up in the air. Fellow lefty Chang-mo Koo will likely also start in the WBC, and is one of the best KBO pitchers when healthy. Health is a bit of a concern for Koo, who has thrown only 205 innings over the past three seasons, and missed all of the 2021 season.

    Koo gained popularity for his lights-out performance early in the 2020 KBO season, before getting hurt later in the season. Koo commands his fastball well, which is necessary as he averages 89 MPH with the pitch. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the KBO, and while he doesn’t throw it very hard at 82 MPH, it has good horizontal movement and had a 36% whiff rate last season.

    Koo also throws a good splitter almost exclusively to right-handed hitters, who clearly struggled with it as evidenced by a 38% whiff rate against the pitch. He also rounds out his repertoire with a slow, loopy curveball that he uses as a change of pace pitch.

    Tae-in Won from the Samsung Lions will also likely start games for Team Korea. Won lacks a power fastball (he averaged 90 MPH last season), but he has a great changeup with a strong 12 MPH velocity differential from his fastball with really good two-plane fade. He also has improved his slider and added a cutter, as we covered last season.

    Won is also a good fielder at his position, winning the 2022 KBO Fielding Bible Award at pitcher. For a right-handed pitcher, Won is exceptional at controlling the running game. In 2022 he allowed only 6 stolen bases all season, while also picking off 6 runners.

    Eui-lee Lee  may start or come out of the bullpen for Team Korea, but the Kia Tigers’ lefty is one of the best young pitchers in the KBO. Lee can be effectively wild at times, but he provides Team Korea with their strongest arm from the left side (his average fastball velocity was 91 MPH as a starter last year).

    Lee also throws one of the hardest curveballs in the KBO, which averages 78 MPH. He rounds out his repertoire with a slider that he will use against left-handed and right-handed hitters, and a changeup that he uses exclusively against right-handers. The slider and changeup are his least used pitches, but he sets them up well which makes them his best swing-and-miss pitches.

    Doosan Bears starter Been Gwak is the most likely of the starters to transition to the bullpen for Team Korea, as he is less established than the other starters. Gwak has more velocity on his fastball than most KBO starters, averaging 92 MPH as a starter last season. Team Korea could be hoping that his fastball plays up in short stints, but it is also worth noting that his fastball was hit quite hard by KBO hitters last year.

    Gwak brings a deep repertoire to the table, and he could cut it down to just his best pitches working in shorter stints. His slider, splitter and curveball all had whiff rates above 30% last season.

    LG Twins Relievers

    As a league, the KBO does not feature a lot of pitchers with high velocity, with most pitchers featuring high 80s fastballs and good offspeed pitches. The LG Twins have two of the best power relief prospects in the league, and both will be featured on Team Korea.

    Woo-suk Go is LG’s closer, and the hardest throwing relief arm in the KBO. His fastball sits at 95 MPH and touched 98 last year, and he has thrown it over 50% of the time. Instead of featuring a changeup or splitter, Go relies on three breaking balls (a cutter, slider and curveball). His breaking balls can all overlap in shape and velocity, but he throws them all well above the KBO average velocity for each pitch type.

    Go is still young at 24 years old, and he has steadily brought his walk rate down the last few years. He also has a lot of experience in high leverage situations with 124 career KBO saves, including a career best 42 saves in 44 opportunities in 2022. Expect him to be pitching high- leverage innings for Team Korea.

    While having a flamethrower like Go in the bullpen is a luxury for most KBO teams, the Twins have two relievers with big fastballs to shut down opponents late in games. Woo-young Jung, LG’s 23 year old setup man, just trails Go in average velocity at 94 MPH on his fastball which still makes him one of the hardest throwers in the KBO.

    Unlike Go, who primarily pitches from a standard ¾ arm slot, Jung is a sidearming righty who gives batters a bit of a different look. Due to his arm slot, Jung’s fastball gets a lot of sink and tail which makes it difficult to square up and elevate. In 2022 Jung’s fastball produced grounders on 72% of balls in play and he  gave up only 3 home runs all season. This is even more impressive when you consider he threw the fastball over 90% of the time, so hitters were often sitting on fastballs.

    Overall, Team Korea may be light on power in the pitching department, but the staff is fairly deep with pitchers who have had success in a strong league. Should the team make it out of pool play, the depth of their staff will be tested by the strong offenses of teams that make it to the knockout rounds.

  • NPB Scouting Report: Koudai Senga

    NPB Scouting Report: Koudai Senga

    Koudai (Kodai) Senga has been on the radar of MLB teams for a long time, but this offseason he will finally be able to bring his talents to North America after agreeing to a 5-year deal with the Mets.

    Senga posted a 1.89 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 148 innings with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks last season. He’s got a fair amount of use on his arm, having pitched 11 seasons in NPB. He first established himself as a reliever in 2013, then transitioned to being a starting pitcher in 2016 when he had a 2.61 ERA over 169 innings, while striking out more than a batter per inning.

    Senga has been consistent since then, typically posting an ERA between 2.50 and 3.00 (with one season above and below that range) and throwing roughly 140 innings per year. His strikeout and walk rates are also consistent over that time, posting marks between 9 and 11 K/9 and 3-to-4 BB/9.

    When his strikeout rates peaked in 2019 and 2020, his walk rates also spiked up. He appears to have adjusted over the last couple of years to reduce his strikeouts in exchange for a bit more control and limiting baserunners.

    How he does it

    How Senga goes about getting great results is unique for a pitcher of his profile. Most pitchers who can touch triple digits with their fastballs (as Senga can) tend to throw max effort pitches in an attempt to overpower opposing batters, but Senga has had to adjust to different circumstances and develop a more refined approach.

    Most starting pitchers who are power arms are tall with broad shoulders, while Senga is on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 6’0 and 178 lbs. As the ace of the SoftBank staff, Senga was also expected to pitch deep into games, and they let his pitch count run over 120 pitches on multiple occasions, despite him having some minor injuries every season.

    Senga has learned to pace himself as a starter instead of throwing max effort on every pitch. He will add and subtract velocity from his fastball, and sometimes loses velocity over the course of a game, but at times can ramp it back up late in a start when he needs to. In addition to his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, Senga will also mix in a shuuto to left-handed batters.

    In Senga’s case, his shuuto is a modified two-seam fastball, where he spreads his fingers out beyond the seams of the baseball (similar to a splitter grip) but still applies two-seam spin to the ball. The result is something that works as a slow sinker or hard changeup, and in Senga’s case he can throw it around 88 to 91 MPH.

    In addition to his fastballs, Senga’s best pitch is his splitter, which is also called his “ghost forkball”. He gets great vertical drop on the pitch and uses it mostly once he is able to get to two-strike counts.

    Over half of Senga’s strikeouts come on the splitter, as it was his most used two-strike pitch. He was able to get whiffs (missed swings) on 45% of his splitters thrown in 2022, a rate similar to that which Kevin Gausman gets with his splitter in MLB (that’s not to compare the two directly … we’ll do that in a second, but the point of that stat is to show what excellence looks like in each league).

    Since NPB uses a slightly different ball than MLB, Senga could have some issues adjusting to throwing a splitter with a different ball. When Masahiro Tanaka pitched for the Yankees, he also ran into issues with his splitter using the MLB ball. However, Senga’s splitter has so much movement that even if it is less effective, it should still be a useful pitch in MLB.

    Below is a video showing two splitters, or ghost forks (at 0:05 and 1:15), and a shuuto (0:50). While they are gripped similarly, the slow motion replays show how he can apply different spin out of his hand. The shuuto is thrown 5-6 MPH harder than the other two pitches, and has more backspin applied to it.

    To complement his fastballs and splitter, Senga also throws a cutter, slider, and curveball. His cutter and slider can have similar movement, staying pretty flat but having some horizontal break in to left-handed batters or away from right-handers. The slider can flash some vertical movement, but it does have inconsistent depth.

    The cutter usually will be thrown around 90 MPH with the slider in the mid 80s. He gets whiffs with both pitches on around 30% of swings, but he doesn’t always have a good feel for location with them.

    Here is a cutter that he gets a whiff on, despite missing his spot:

     

     

    Senga also throws two curveballs, a slow one in the mid 70s, and a harder, slurvy one in the low 80s. The low 80s slurve has the best movement of his breaking balls, as it features more vertical drop to go with some glove-side horizontal movement. However, he struggles to get both curveballs over for strikes, which limits their effectiveness.

    With such a deep repertoire, Senga can attack hitters in a variety of ways. However with SoftBank a few obvious patterns emerged. First, he always went with a fastball-heavy approach in the first inning, sometimes throwing only fastballs to get through the frame.

    His breaking ball usage is also interesting, as he threw more breaking balls to left-handed hitters than to right-handed hitters. Breaking balls from right-handed pitchers tend to be more effective against right-handed hitters, but SoftBank had Senga throw 33% breaking balls to left-handed hitters, with the majority being backdoor breaking balls.

    One could also argue that he doesn’t throw his splitter enough. Since his splitter is his best pitch, ideally it would be one of his most used pitches. However, he threw splitters only 22% of the time (compared to 32% breaking balls), and saved it for strikeout situations – 57% of his splitters were thrown in two-strike counts.

    Limiting his splitter usage might make sense if it is a painful pitch for him to throw, as many pitchers develop blisters from throwing splitters, but I can’t confirm if that is the case for him or not.

    Despite these trends in his pitch usage, which NPB teams would already be aware of from advance scouting, Senga was very effective in 2022. He finished second among qualified Pacific League starters with a 1.94 ERA. It is possible that if he was less predictable with his pitches, or optimized his usage more, that he could have performed even better.

    Senga’s repertoire is similar to Gausman’s, with the idea that they have a strong fastball and splitter with weaker breaking balls. Gausman leans heavily on the fastball/splitter combo, throwing them a combined 85% of the time and his only breaking ball (a slider) 14% of the time in 2022. Senga threw his fastball and splitter only 68% of the time, with 32% breaking balls. His signing team may want to have his usage mimic Gausman’s more closely.

    Senga has been looking to come to MLB for a long time, and will finally be in a MLB rotation starting next season. There are some concerns regarding durability, but he should be effective while on the field. Some teams may also see some untapped potential, despite his being 30 years old, if they can have him optimize his pitch distribution.

  • NPB Free Agent Scouting Report: Masataka Yoshida

    NPB Free Agent Scouting Report: Masataka Yoshida

    Masataka Yoshida is expected to be posted by the NPB Champion Orix Buffaloes. This is a bit of a surprising move, as there had not been much buzz around Yoshida being posted until after the playoffs concluded.

    That does not mean that Yoshida is not deserving of a look. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in the Pacific League over the last half-decade, posting a batting average of at least .300, an on-base percentage of at least .400, and a slugging percentage of at least .500 in each of the last six seasons.

    Yoshida does have a reputation as a slugger, though that is a little misleading. He has never reached 30 home runs in a season (he hit a career high 29 in 2019), and has hit 21 home runs in each of the last two seasons.

    Below is a great side view of Yoshida hitting a walk-off home run in Game 5 of the Japan Series:

    https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1585631003753971716

    And here is the normal broadcast view:

     

    Yoshida has a bit of an uppercut in his swing, which allows him to maximize his power output from his smaller frame. Listed at 5’8” and 176 lbs, his frame is reminiscent of Dustin Pedoria’s and, like Pedroia, Yoshida has to put everything he has into his swings.

    Despite the effort exerted on them, Yoshida demonstrates elite plate discipline skills. He struck out only 41 times this season (an 8% rate) while walking 80 times (16%), though the walk rate was boosted by 18 intentional walks. If we remove the intentional walks he still maintained a healthy 13% walk rate.

    Yoshida isn’t just piling up stats against weaker arms either. The Pacific League is home to many of Japan’s best young pitchers. While he does not have to face teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he has hit well against fellow MLB hopeful Koudai Senga, NPB wonderkid Roki Sasaki, and veteran Masahiro Tanaka. He’s a combined 19-for-53 (.358) with 10 walks against them. He’s also 10-for-24 (.417) in the last three seasons against the Pacific League’s top lefty relievers, Yuki Matsui and Livan Moinelo.

    While Yoshida’s offensive stats look very good, there is another wrinkle to consider with him. NPB teams do not shift much in general, but Yoshida was an exception as he faced the shift regularly. With MLB teams unable to put three fielders on the right side, or put an infielder in short right field, Yoshida might find more holes in MLB infields to get hits through.

    While Yoshida has proven everything he can with the bat in NPB, the rest of his game has some questions. Defensively he is likely limited to only left field. Yoshida’s size makes him too small for first base, where longer reach is desired to catch errant throws from infielders.

    His arm can also be a liability in right field, where he has played just over 600 innings since 2018, when we began tracking NPB data. In that time Yoshida has allowed runners to take an extra base (for example, go first to third on a single) on 64% of their opportunities in right field. Yoshida played only 23 innings in right field in 2021, and did not play there at all in 2022.

    As a left fielder, teams could look for a way to maximize his abilities defensively. Over the last five years, Yoshida has totaled -15 DRS in 3,103 innings in left, averaging -3 DRS in around 600 innings per year (we judge NPB players using MLB out probabilities).

    In the range and positioning component of DRS he has rated above-average on “shallow” plays in each year, while scoring negatively on “deep” plays in each year. If a team wants to use him in the outfield, they could dig deeper to determine how to optimally position him in left field in hopes of masking his deficiencies.

    How much he can play in the field is also a concern. From 2018-2020 Yoshida played in every game for Orix, though he only played more than 100 games in the outfield in 2018. In the last two seasons he has missed some time and also seen more time at DH.

    In 2022, played left field in only 39 of his 119 games, slotting in as the DH in his other 80 games. A positive COVID test and a hamstring injury limited his ability to stay on the field. He did start at left field in 9 of Orix’s 11 playoff games, while playing DH in the other two.

    Similar to his defense, Yoshida’s speed is a bit of a question mark, and maybe more of a liability following his hamstring injury. He is slower than the typical small-framed outfielder, though his speed is much closer to below-average than basepath-clogging.

    He was 4-for-4 stealing bases this season (with no attempts in 2021), suggesting he was opportunistic with his opportunities. Given his .447 OBP he was on base frequently, but ran sparingly. He also rarely finds an extra gear on liners in the gap, totaling exactly 1 triple in each of the past three seasons, and 7 total over his seven-year career.

    Yoshida has been the best hitter that Orix has had since Ichiro, and will likely find a MLB home this off-season. While there are some questions regarding his defense, his elite offensive production will likely overshadow those other concerns.

  • NPB Free Agent Profile: Shintaro Fujinami

    NPB Free Agent Profile: Shintaro Fujinami

    Shintaro Fujinami has been a tantalizing talent in NPB for a decade, and now he could very well be coming to North America. The Hanshin Tigers will be posting him when MLB free agency gets underway.

    Fujinami’s career has been a roller coaster ride. He held his own in NPB at first, debuting just before his 19th birthday. From 2013-2016 he made between 24 and 28 appearances each year, with almost all of them being starts. His best season was 2015, in which he went 14-7 with a 2.40 ERA and 221 strikeouts in 199 innings.

    After 2016 the control issues came, and they hit him hard. He walked at least 6 batters per 9 innings in each of the next three NPB seasons, and made more minor league appearances than NPB appearances over that span. The 2019 season was the low point for Fujinami, as he made one start that lasted 4 ⅓ innings, walking 6 batters and hitting another 2.

    Over the past three seasons, a bizarre trend has emerged regarding Fujinami’s usage. In each of the last three seasons he has opened the year as a starter and struggled, transitioned to relief work and performed well, which earned him a promotion back into the rotation at the end of the year.

    If we split his 2022 season into those three stages, he yielded the following results:

    Role (Dates) Games Innings ERA K% BB%
    Starter (3/25-4/8) 3 15 6.00 15% 14%
    Relief (5/31-6/10) 5 6 0.00 19% 5%
    Starter (8/6-9/18) 7 43.2 3.09 27% 5%

    *This leaves out a 2-inning shutout relief appearance just to get some work in before the playoffs (2 strikeouts, 1 walk), and a rough 3-inning playoff start that was played in monsoon-like conditions (2 runs, 4 strikeouts, 3 walks).

    There are many reasons for MLB teams to be interested in Fujinami, the first being his stuff. Overall Fujinami averaged 96 MPH with his fastball, and it played up a bit when pitching in relief, averaging 97 MPH.

    While his fastball is good, his splitter is better. It’s a harder pitch than most MLB splitters, averaging 91 MPH (92 MPH as a reliever) and topping out at 94 MPH. Despite throwing it so hard, he still manages to get good downward action on the pitch, and he locates it better than the fastball or slider, keeping it down and out of danger.

    The splitter was his best strikeout pitch, and his most-used pitch with two strikes, narrowly edging out his fastball in both two-strike usage and strikeouts. In addition to having a solid 34% whiff rate, batters also struggled to do anything with the splitter when it was put in play. His splitters turned into grounders 66% of the time, and batters only managed a 9% hard hit rate versus the pitch.

    While the fastball and splitter are great weapons for Fujinami, his slider is more of a liability. The slider usually features good horizontal break and sweeping action, and had the best whiff rate of all his pitches at 37%, but he struggled to control it and limit damage. He would routinely leave sliders hanging in the zone, and batters hit .310/.383/.548 on the pitch.

    Some of his early season struggles can be attributed to slider usage. Overall he threw 21% sliders on the season, but in his first three starts he threw sliders 30% of the time, compared to just 16% splitters.

    While slider usage was definitely a factor in his early season struggles, it was not the only reason. In those first three starts he could not find the zone consistently with any of his pitches.

    The only pitch that was able to manage a strike rate of 60% was his rarely-used curveball (of which he threw 3 of 5 for strikes). For comparison, if you take out the first three starts 69% of his fastballs were strikes, as were 68% of his splitters.

    Fujinami’s market will be fascinating to follow this off-season, as there are a wide variety of possible outcomes. Some teams will be scared off by him only having two reliable pitches and a history of control problems.

    On the other hand, some teams might see a power bullpen arm ready to go with a fastball-splitter combination. A team may think they can rework his breaking ball or see his two pitch mix working like it does for Kevin Gausman.

    What Fujinami wants will matter too. Will he be willing to take a bullpen role, or will he want the opportunity to start? Will he want a clause that prohibits him from being sent to the minors in his contract? Is he willing to sign for a price that MLB teams are willing to pay, keeping in mind that they will owe Hanshin a posting fee on top of his salary?

    Recent years have seen some players with “fringier” skill sets go through the posting process only to end up re-signing back with their old team. Defensive specialist second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi and speedy outfielder Haruki Nishikawa have recently had failed postings. Starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano was widely considered a MLB-caliber arm, but could not find a team that would meet his price and re-signed on a large contract with the Yomiuri Giants.

    It is impossible to tell how Fujinami’s future will play out. However, as when he is on the mound, the unpredictability is part of what makes him so intriguing.

  • KBO Scouting Report: Eui-lee Lee

    KBO Scouting Report: Eui-lee Lee

    Despite not being known as a league with great pitching, the subset of players who have transitioned best from the KBO to MLB are left-handed pitchers. Last season Hyun-jin Ryu, Kwang-hyun Kim and Hyeon-jong Yang all pitched for MLB teams.

    Unfortunately for the South Korean national team, that meant all three of those pitchers were unable to participate in the Olympic baseball tournament last summer. Add in that the top KBO lefty, Chang-mo Koo, missed the whole season with injury, South Korea had to dig deeper for a left-handed pitcher to add to their staff.

    It was still surprising to see Eui-lee Lee of the Kia Tigers be named to the team, as he had just turned 19 less than two months before the Olympic tournament started. But he held his own against both the Dominican Republic and the United States.

    That showing was impressive for a teenager, and Lee has continued to perform well in the KBO. For his career he has a 3.86 ERA, and is averaging roughly a strikeout per inning in a league in which pitchers typically strike out about 7 batters per 9 innings. His 4.07 ERA in 2022 is right around the KBO average of 4.05. 

    It is unclear if he will be part of the South Korean team at next spring’s World Baseball Classic as Kim, Yang and Koo should all be available, but he is a name to keep an eye on.

    What are the keys to Lee’s success?

    By KBO standards, he is a power arm, averaging 91 MPH on his fastball which makes him one of the harder left-handed throwers in the league. He leverages that advantage by using his fastball 64% of the time, and it is the pitch he can locate best, getting strikes on 69% of his them.

    He will often sit around 92 with the fastball in his starts, but he will occasionally lose some velocity deeper into games.

    Lee has also proven to be adaptable, and is still refining his secondary pitches, though the results are encouraging 

    Pitch Avg Speed Usage % Whiff % Whiff % vs RHB/LHB
    Curveball 78 13% 31% 40%/20%
    Slider 82 12% 38% 50%/33%
    Changeup 84 11% 42% 43%/0*

    *Only 2 changeups thrown to left handed batters this season with 1 swing against.

    His secondary offerings are still works in progress, though it is interesting to note he has better whiff rates versus right handers on all four of his pitches.

    His curveball has good shape, and he has improved his confidence with the pitch. He threw only 9 curveballs over his first 5 starts, but it has become his most trusted secondary pitch this summer.

    His slider will sweep across the zone, and he tends to use it in favorable matchups, with the usage of the pitch varying drastically from start to start.

    The changeup was his go-to secondary offering to start the season, as he threw 68 over his first 4 starts. He has cut his changeup usage since then but, like with his slider, he will vary the usage depending on matchups.

    The changeup has improved during the season in terms of shape as well. Early on, it was very straight, essentially looking like a slower version of his four-seam fastball. He has added some fade to the pitch as the year has progressed.

    Where can he improve?

    Lee’s success is due largely to the quality and power of his pitches, and how he plays them off each other. As he gets older and continues to develop, he will need to get better at locating his pitches.

    I already mentioned that his fastball is his best pitch for getting strikes, at 69%. Despite the big whiff rates on his secondary pitches, he still struggles to get strikes with them. 

    All of his secondary pitches result in strikes 60% of the time (the slider) or less (curveball and changeup both have a 52% strike rate). By comparison, MLB strike rates are 63% for sliders, 61% for curveballs and changeups.

    A lot of his balls thrown are non-competitive pitches as well, and what jumped out the most to me on video was the number of pitches he throws in the dirt.

    First, a look at the pitchers with the most pitches that have not reached home plate:

    Most Pitches Bounced in Front of Home Plate – KBO
    Eui-Lee Lee Kia Tigers 44
    Min-woo Kim Hanwha Eagles 39
    Woo-jin An  Kiwoom Heroes 32
    Hyeon-jong Yang Kia Tigers 31
    Je-seong Bae KT Wiz 29

    Obviously some pitches in the dirt are intentional, particularly breaking balls in two-strike counts. But looking at breaking balls in the dirt shows where his command issues are most obvious. 

    KBO Percentage of Non-Fastballs Thrown in Dirt
    Eui-Lee Lee Kia Tigers 22%
    Casey Kelly LG Twins 17%
    Je-seong Bae KT Wiz 17%
    Eric Jokisch Kiwoom Heroes 16%
    Hyeon-jong Yang  Kia Tigers 16%

    *Note for this leaderboard “in dirt” can refer to pitches that bounce before or on/after the plate

    What does it all mean?

    Overall, Eui-lee Lee is still one of the better pitchers in the KBO, even with his ERA being what it is. His power from the left side overpowers hitters, regardless of the location of his pitches. Lee is one of only four KBO pitchers with 80 innings pitched who is averaging more than a strikeout per inning, with the others being Woo-jin An, Drew Rucinski, and Glenn Sparkman.

    He is still very young, and has shown that he is still developing as he works on his secondary pitches. He has the opportunity to be an elite KBO starter if he can improve his control.

    Despite his wildness, his walk rate has dropped from 14% last season to 9% in 2022. My theory is that as his stuff improves and he adds some velo while he fills out, hitters will cheatmore to catch up to the fastball, and are more prone to chasing bad pitches when they guess wrong. But then as hitters adapt, his walk rate will likely start to climb again.

    Even if his control does not improve, he could still have a solid career as a mid-rotation power pitcher in the KBO, and his power stuff gives him a chance to be a high-end bullpen arm for both Kia and the National Team for years to come.

  • KBO Watch: Tae-in Won Changes His Approach

    KBO Watch: Tae-in Won Changes His Approach

    KBO teams are always trying to piece together a rotation to get them to the playoffs, and the best way to do that is to develop a pitcher who can stick with your team for the better part of a decade (or longer). 

    Of course pitching development is complicated, but finding a pitcher who figures out how to be successful early is a great competitive advantage in the league.

    That’s how 22-year-old Tae-in Won of the Samsung Lions came into the league a few years ago. He was a teenager who was struggling more than dominating as he kept his ERA just under 5.00 in his first two years in the league. Last season he took a huge jump forward, adding strikeouts, cutting walks and going 14-7 with a 3.06 ERA.

    This season, he is still pitching well, though some of his numbers have taken a slight slide back (3.60 ERA in 105 innings). What’s most interesting, however, is that he seems to have changed how he is attacking hitters.

    Who is Tae-in Won?

    Before diving too far into this subject, it may be a good idea to give an overview of who Tae-in Won is as a pitcher. While he is one of the better young pitchers in Korea, he is a tier below the elite arms like Woo-jin An and Chang-mo Koo.

    Won is in his fourth year in the KBO, having debuted a few weeks shy of his 19th birthday in 2019. International fans may recognize him as one of the pitchers from the Korean Olympic team that just missed a medal in 2021. 

    Won has been a starting pitcher exclusively for the last three seasons in Korea, and has thrived, using his changeup as his best pitch. He throws it 12 MPH slower than his fastball on average, and it gets great two-plane fade, with many hitters both swinging over it and being well out in front of it.

    The Change in Approach

    At the start of this season, Won was doing the same thing that he had always done, working off his fastball-changeup mix. However, he started to make a change in his approach a little over a month ago:

    Pitch Type Usage in first 11 starts

    (through June 17)

    		 Usage in last 6 starts

    (Since June 23)
    Fastball 46% 39%
    Changeup 32% 21%
    Slider 18% 30%
    Cutter 2% 8%
    Curveball 3% 3%

    The basic trend here is that Won has nearly doubled his combined slider and cutter usage, at the expense of his fastball and changeup, which had been his primary two pitches since entering the KBO.

    Why would someone who has been so consistent in his pitch usage suddenly make such a dramatic change?

    To start with, Won’s fastball is quite unimpressive. It has averaged 90 MPH in each of the last two seasons. It’s not that he is holding back for longevity and reaching back for a big fastball when needed, as his maximum fastball velocity this year is 93 MPH.

    His fastball is also getting hit harder this season. Last year was Won’s best season to date, but hitters still managed a .304 average and whiffed on only 8% of swings against his fastball. This year the whiff rate was up moderately to 13%, but hitters were hitting .343 against the fastball.

    The drop in changeup usage is a bit harder to justify, as I think the changeup is still his best pitch and it is one that he locates very well to both sides of the plate. However, the league may have been catching on to his strategy. 

    In 2021 the whiff rate on his changeup was 40% and he recorded 83 strikeouts on his changeup. This season the whiff rate against his changeup has fallen a bit to 34%, and he has only recorded 33 strikeouts with the change. 

    Conversely, his pedestrian fastball has already recorded more strikeouts this season (26) than he had in a full year last season (23). This suggests that hitters are looking for the changeup more with two strikes, and so a change in approach was needed.

    This change in approach was made possible by the strides he has taken with his slider. 

    An initial glance will tell you that his slider averages 80 MPH, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Won’s slider is a very versatile pitch, and he can manipulate it very well.

    Many pitchers today will try to throw all of their pitches with max effort every time, either to throw them as fast as possible or to get as much break as they can. There are some MLB pitchers that like to manipulate their pitches and add or subtract to them, such as Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Yu Darvish, and Marcus Stroman

    Won is similar with how he throws his slider. 

    Is the batter likely taking a pitch? He can throw a slow breaker at 73 MPH to steal a strike. 

    Is he looking for a strikeout against a tough right hander? 84 MPH that starts at thigh-height and breaks below the zone can get the job done. 

    It also helps that he locates the pitch very well to his glove side (the first base side of the plate).

    This also extends to his cutter, which is essentially a harder version of his slider that he throws inside to lefties. There doesn’t appear to be a big difference in how he grips or throws the slider and cutter, but he can reach back for one at 87 or 88 that runs inside to jam left handed hitters. Mixing the cutter in with his changeup makes for a very uncomfortable at bat for lefties.

    Won’s Future

    What the future holds for Tae-in Won is still up for debate, since he is still quite young. He still has three years beyond this one before he is even eligible to be posted for MLB teams, and a lot can change between then and now as he develops.

    The word ‘pitchability’ gets thrown around a lot for pitching prospects that don’t throw hard, but Won actually demonstrates pitchability with his ability to manipulate his slider and cutter into three or four different pitches.

    Pitchability right handers have very little margin for error in becoming MLB pitchers, but Won’s changeup and diverse slider give him a shot. 

    He reminds me of Marco Estrada with his fastball and changeup combo, though the MLB landscape is constantly changing. Relative to league average, the 90 MPH that Estrada was throwing in 2015 won’t play the same as Won’s 90 MPH when he could debut in MLB (2026 at the earliest).

    If he were to take on a bullpen role in the Majors, I could see him filling a middle relief role similarly to Trevor Richards. Depending on how South Korea fills out its WBC roster, this could be a role that he fills on the international stage next spring.

    He could also play out his career in Korea, as his fastball velocity is actually above KBO average, and his secondary pitches play well there too. Economically, there could be more money available to him as a front-end KBO starter versus what MLB teams will pay for a swingman or back end starter. 

    But it’s a while before he needs to worry about that. For now, we’ll just watch him continue to develop.

  • Woo-jin An: A Most Unusual KBO Pitcher

    Woo-jin An: A Most Unusual KBO Pitcher

    The KBO is not known for producing power pitchers. The top pitchers that the KBO has exported to North America recently can be classified as control pitchers who lack power. Hyun-jin Ryu, Kwang-hyun Kim, Josh Lindblom, and Chris Flexen are not at the top of anyone’s list of power arms.

    However, one KBO pitcher is breaking that mold by becoming a homegrown Korean power arm. Woo-jin An of the Kiwoom Heroes is the KBO’s version of Jacob deGrom, a flamethrower who also has a feel for pitching, and whose starts are must-see events (though we’re not saying they are comparable skills-wise).

    If we were going to compare him to a current MLB pitcher, we’d say he somewhat resembles the good version of Rockies pitcher Germán Márquez in that they throw fastballs at similar velocities and throw a hard breaking ball.

    An will likely become eligible to be posted after the 2024 season, but he’s worth taking a closer look at now, during the KBO All-Star Break. He currently has a 2.02 ERA and an 0.96 WHIP, and is averaging 10.1 strikeouts per 9 innings.

    An has the build of a traditional starter, though he is a bit lean, listed at 6’4” and 202 lbs. At 22 years old, he could add some muscle to his frame if desired.

    His bread-and-butter are his fastball and slider. And he throws both hard, relative to the rest of the league.

    While he uses these pitches frequently, he has incorporated his other pitches (a curveball and changeup) more frequently over the last few years. He threw the fastball and slider a combined 83% of the time in 2020 when pitching out of the bullpen, but is down to 73% so far this year.

    Woo-jin An 2022 Pitch Usage
    Pitch Type Avg. Velocity (MPH) Pitch Usage
    Fastball 95 45%
    Slider 89<< 28%
    Curveball 81 18%
    Changeup 84 9%

    >> Average slider velocity is same as KBO average fastball velocity

     While his fastball averages 95, An will take some velocity off it in obvious bunt situations to save his arm and get the free out, similar to what Zack Greinke will do in similar situations. When throwing at max effort, An’s fastball will sit around 95-97 MPH, with the ability to touch triple digits. He throws the hardest fastball in the KBO, as LG Twins closer Woo-suk Go is the only other pitcher who averages 95 MPH.

    An’s slider is a great weapon, as its average velocity of 89 MPH is right around the league average fastball velocity. Since he throws it so hard, it usually does not get a lot of downward break, and can look more like a cutter at times. Despite that, he does not use it to try to jam left handed hitters, but when he throws it to lefties he usually tries to use it more as a backfoot slider.

    He uses the slider vs right handers about as often as he uses his fastball. It’s his go-to strikeout pitch. Right-handed hitters as a whole are whiffing on 44% of their swings vs his slider. In MLB, that miss rate by right-handed hitters would rank in the 83rd percentile for pitchers this season (we’re not saying he’d duplicate that for MLB, just pointing out how impressive it would be).

    In the last couple of years An has made an effort to improve his curveball and changeup, and those are showing encouraging results. His curveball has a good, downward action  and, like his fastball, he can vary speeds on it. He has a slower version that he can throw around 75 MPH to try to steal a strike early in an at-bat, but he also can reach back for a harder mid 80s breaker when looking for a strikeout.

    Having a strong fastball/slider combo at high velocity helps make his curveball more effective. Batters are hitting only .119 vs the curveball this season, and are whiffing on 34% of their swings. An MLB pitcher with that opponents’ batting average against the pitch would rank among the 10 lowest. 

    An’s changeup has been a work in progress, but that work is paying off this year. He has already thrown more changeups this season than he did in the previous two seasons combined, and is his best swing and miss pitch, with hitters whiffing on 47% of swings. In MLB, a pitcher with a similar rate is Devin Williams of the Brewers, who has one of the best changeups in the game.

    His changeup does not feature a lot of drop, but it will show good fade sometimes. The key to his changeup’s success is how slow he can throw it. He averages an 11-MPH velocity differential between his fastball and changeup, and with hitters gearing up to hit high velocity they end up way out in front when he throws a changeup.

    An uses the changeup almost exclusively to left handed hitters, as he has only thrown 9 changeups to right handed hitters this season. 17% of his pitches to lefties have been changeups, with the usage jumping to 30% with two strikes. He has struck out 21 left handed hitters with the changeup so far, which is more than the 13 total changeups he threw in the 2020 season.

    An looks like a future major league pitcher, and at 22 years old he is still fine-tuning his craft. If you had to drop a current KBO pitcher into a MLB rotation today, the best options would be Kwang-hyun Kim (who spent the last two seasons in St. Louis) or An.  

    His MLB prospects also look encouraging as his team has had a tendency to allow their players to be posted. Players such as Ha-seong Kim, Byung-ho Park, and Jung-ho Kang were all Heroes before being posted. Hopefully we’ll get to see him down the road.

  • KBO (Alumnus) Scouting Report: Aaron Brooks

    KBO (Alumnus) Scouting Report: Aaron Brooks

    Newest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Aaron Brooks has much less of a MLB track record than fellow MLB-turned-KBO pitcher Dan Straily, but they had quite similar results in the KBO. 

    Brooks spent parts of four seasons in the Majors, putting up a 9-13 record and 6.49 ERA while pitching for the Royals, Athletics, and Orioles. When he moved to his new league, those numbers improved considerably

    Season W-L ERA IP WHIP BB/9 K/9
    2020 KBO 11-4 2.50 151 1/3 1.02 1.4 7.7
    2021KBO  3-5 3.35 78 1.40 1.8 6.3

    Brooks is a strike thrower who has never put up big strikeout numbers. He has struggled to limit hits since he is around the zone so much. He had only one full season where he allowed less than a hit per inning, and that was his 2020 season in Korea.

    Pitch Mix

    Pitch Type Usage (2021) Average Velocity (MPH)
    Fastball 46% 92
    Changeup 24% 84
    Slider 22% 86
    Curveball 8% 80

    Despite not generating a lot of strikeouts, Brooks does have some traits that should get him noticed. His fastball is not overpowering, averaging 92 MPH, but that is a little deceptive. He throws a four-seam and two-seam fastball, and his four-seam tends to be a couple MPH harder than his two-seam. His four-seam averages around 93, and topped out at 96 MPH in 2021. His four-seam and two-seam fastballs also have a large separation in movement, allowing them to function as two distinct pitches.

    For a contact-inducing pitcher, Brooks does have some swing-and-miss pitches in his arsenal. In 2021 hitters swung and missed on 33% of swings against his slider, and 35% of swings on his curveball (KBO miss rates are 29% and 27% respectively). However, his fastballs produced whiffs on only 10% of swings (league average is 14%). Since he threw so many fastballs, that limited his ability to strike hitters out.

    Brooks’ three most-used pitches were all good at generating ground balls, as his fastball produced grounders on 52% of balls in play, his slider 53%, and his changeup produced 73% thanks to its noticeable vertical drop (all well above the league averages for those pitch types). Each pitch actually had a higher ground ball rate in 2020 than in 2021.

    One note on Brooks that explains why his 2021 innings total was so low. He was released from the Kia Tigers in 2021, due to an issue with a product he had shipped from the US to Korea. He ordered a vape pen that customs found to contain traces of marijuana, which is illegal in South Korea. After his release, Brooks reportedly signed a minor league deal with the Padres, though he did not get into any games for the Padres or their affiliates.

    Outlook

    Brooks could fill a depth starter role for the Cardinals, but he might have a bit more upside than Straily. 

    If he changes his pitch mix to throw more of his secondary pitches, he’ll need them to be as successful as they were in the KBO to boost his strikeout rate (which will be harder against tougher competition). That could make him a viable fourth or fifth starter. He could also try to convert to a bullpen role as a groundball-inducing middle reliever.

    The Cardinals were able to turn Miles Mikolas from a successful starter in NPB to an effective one in the states. They’ll be trying to work the same magic with Brooks here.