Category: John Dewan’s Stat of the Week

  • Stat of the Week: The Braves Won The Marathon

    Stat of the Week: The Braves Won The Marathon

    By MARK SIMON

    On April 6, the Braves fell to 0-4 after a walk-off loss against the Washington Nationals.

    “I don’t think anybody is too worried,” said pitcher Drew Smyly.

    On July 5, Max Fried allowed six runs in an 11-1 loss to the Pirates.

    “Coming out of my hand, it didn’t feel like I was throwing pitches that were really sharp…” Fried told reporters after the game.

    After one more start on July 10, in which he allowed three runs in five innings against the Marlins, Fried’s ERA was 4.71. That same day, Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a season-ending torn ACL. The Braves lost the following day to go into the All-Star Break 44-45.

    “It’s just another punch in the gut that we’ve got to endure,” said Braves manager Brian Snitker of Acuña’s injury.

    Despite all the struggles, Braves GM Alex Anthopolous was highly active at the trade deadline because no team had pulled away in the NL East. He remade his outfield by adding Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Soler after trading for Joc Pederson a couple of weeks prior.

    Soler was the last of the acquisitions, a player who led the AL in home runs in 2019 but had a 2021 OPS below .600 as late as July 18.

    “The power is real…” Anthopolous said of Soler.

    On July 30, the day of the trade deadline, the Braves lost to the Brewers, 9-5, to fall to 51-54. They were five games out of first place.

    Today, the Braves are World Series champions. It’s a cliché that the season is a marathon and not a sprint (or even a middle-distance race). But it’s an appropriate one because their season was about getting better over time.

    Case in point:

    Improved infield defense

    Through the end of May, the Braves ranked 15th in how often they turned groundballs and bunts into outs (74.7%). Around that time, they changed their defensive approach to utilize defensive shifts more often.

    They converted 76.8% of groundballs and bunts into outs the rest of the season, the second-highest rate in MLB. Their postseason rate was a nearly identical 76.6%.

    Max Fried got his sharpness back

    Fried rediscovered the pitches that netted him a 2.25 ERA in 2020. He pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 14 starts after the All-Star Break. Opponents hit .354 against Fried’s four-seam fastball prior to the All-Star Break. They hit .187 against it afterwards.

    Fried had much more success pitching at the top of the strike zone after the All-Star Break. Opponents hit .141 against high pitches (those in the upper-third of the zone or above) in those last 14 starts. They hit .239 in his first 14 starts.

    Outfield acquisitions pay off

    The new outfield clicked and teamed with Freddie Freeman to make the lineup much more potent. Duvall drove in 45 runs in 55 regular-season games to finish with an NL-best 113. Rosario had 14 hits and hit .560 in the six-game NLCS to win MVP honors.

    Soler rediscovered his hitting ability. His contact rate jumped from 70% with the Royals prior to the trade to nearly 77% with the Braves after it. He hit .300 with three home runs in the World Series, including a three-run shot in the clinching Game 6.

    Matzek’s long road back

    And we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the great work of the Braves bullpen, though for one member the marathon was much longer than just this one season.

    Tyler Matzek didn’t pitch in the majors from 2016 to 2019 while dealing with “the yips”–a struggle that left him unable to throw strikes consistently.

    In 2021, his second season with the Braves, Matzek had 24 holds and no blown saves. He had five more holds (and three wins) in the postseason. In his last seven postseason appearances, he had 14 strikeouts and no walks.

    Matzek’s slider was devastating. Opposing hitters were 4-for-49 in at-bats ending with his slider in the regular season, 1-for-19 in the postseason. He threw 5-of-6 for strikes in Game 6 of the World Series, netting three outs with it.

    Matzek’s success was emblematic of the Braves in 2021. Keep playing and the good stuff will eventually come. It did–and today the Braves can call themselves baseball’s 2021 champions.

  • Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part II)

    Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part II)

    By MARK SIMON

    Last week and this week, we’re running a two-part series on the top
    candidates for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced later this
    month.

    The Fielding Bible Awards are voted on by a panel of experts who can
    vote based on whatever criteria they choose, including observation and
    subjective judgement, as well as statistical analysis. Each position has one
    overall winner, different from the Gold Gloves, which has one in each league.

    This week, Part II of our preview looks at outfielders, pitchers, and our
    multi-position player award. The multi-position award was done differently this
    year. Bill James devised a system to allow voters to consider and reward players who demonstrate a combination of versatility and the ability to play high value positions (details are in The Bill James Handbook 2022).

    (Defensive Runs Saved totals in parentheses for all awards except
    multi-position, which includes rank in Positional Value and Versatility Score)

    Left field

    Fielding Bible Favorite: Tyler O’Neill (11)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: O’Neill; AL Favorites: Alex Verdugo (7), Randy Arozarena (7), Andrew Benintendi (7)
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Raimel Tapia (7) (AL) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (6)

    O’Neill won the award in the shortened 2020 season and then proved his
    legitimacy with a strong 2021. He finished the season as the overall Defensive
    Runs Saved leader in left field, making him the favorite for both a Fielding
    Bible Award and a Gold Glove. Left field has been the place for repeat winners.
    There was Crawford (2008-2009), Gardner (2010-2011), Gordon (2012-2014) and Marte
    (2015-2016) in past seasons. The AL Gold Glove race is a true toss-up with Verdugo,
    Arozarena, and Benintendi as the co-leaders in Runs Saved.

    Center Field

    Fielding Bible Favorite: Michael A. Taylor (19)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Harrison Bader (15);
    AL Favorites: Taylor, Kiké Hernández (14), Kevin Kiermaier (13)
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Jackie Bradley Jr. (9) (AL) Byron Buxton (10)

    Taylor found a new home with the Royals and excelled with
    Kansas City from Day 1. He had finished as high as third in Runs Saved in
    center field with the Nationals in 2018, but led everyone at the position in
    2021. He finished just ahead of Bader, who said before the season that winning
    a Gold Glove Award was a personal goal. Note that we listed Buxton among the
    contenders – he’s not eligible for the Gold Glove because of the award’s
    innings requirement, but he is eligible for a Fielding Bible Award.

    Right Field

    Fielding Bible Favorites: Joey Gallo (12), Kyle Tucker (11), Aaron Judge (11)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Adam Duvall (9); AL Favorites: Gallo, Tucker, Judge
    Other Top Contenders (NL): Avisaíl García (8) (AL) Max Kepler (9)

    This is going to be a tight race. Gallo ended up edging
    out one of his new teammates, Aaron Judge, as well as Tucker, for the Runs
    Saved lead among right fielders. Judge has been a top contender in years past
    but has repeatedly run into Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger. The common thread
    between the two Yankees is a great throwing arm. Each had more Runs Saved from
    their arm than they did from their range. Tucker and Manuel Margot tied for the most
    Range Runs Saved in right field.

    Pitcher

    Fielding Bible Favorite: Dallas Keuchel (12)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Zack Wheeler (5) AL Favorite: Keuchel
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Adam Wainwright (3), Marcus Stroman (1) (AL) José Berríos (5), Zack Greinke (5)

    Keuchel was the runaway leader in Runs Saved by a pitcher and has a strong
    chance to win his fifth Fielding Bible Award, which would be the most at the
    position. Position eligibility requirements for the Gold Gloves require pitchers to average an inning per game for their team’s first 142 games, thus taking a few contenders
    for the NL Award (Taijuan Walker and last year’s winner Max Fried) out of
    consideration. Greinke, who won the award in 2018 and 2019, might be Keuchel’s
    top competition.

    Multi-Position

    Fielding Bible Favorite: Chris Taylor (highest Positional Value and Versatility Score)

    Other Top Contenders: Leury García (second-highest score), Josh Rojas (third-highest), Kris
    Bryant (fourth-highest)

    By Bill James’ scoring system, Taylor emerged as the favorite, even though
    he finished with a negative Runs Saved total. He played a considerable amount
    at important positions – 62 games in center field, 46 games at second base, and
    23 games at shortstop. Garcia’s credentials are also impressive. He played at
    least 10 games at every infield and outfield position except for first base.

    The Fielding Bible Award winners will be announced in the near future.
    Stay tuned!

  • Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards Preview – Part I

    Stat of the Week: Fielding Bible Awards Preview – Part I

    By MARK SIMON

    For the next two weeks, this space will feature a two-part series on the top candidates for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced later this month.

    The Fielding Bible Awards are voted on by a panel of 12 experts who can vote based on whatever criteria they choose, including observation and subjective judgement, as well as statistical analysis. Each position has one overall winner, different from the Gold Gloves, which has one in each league.

    This week, Part I of our preview looks at catchers and infielders.

    (Defensive Runs Saved totals in parentheses)

    Catcher

    Fielding Bible Favorites: Jacob Stallings (21), Austin Hedges (12)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Stallings; AL Favorite: Hedges
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Elias Diaz (9) (AL) Sean Murphy (10), Max Stassi (10)

    Stallings was the runaway leader in Defensive Runs Saved this year and for good reason, given that he rates among the game’s top pitch framers and pitch blockers. The absence of Roberto Pérez left a hole both behind the plate for the Indians and on the Runs Saved leaderboard. Hedges did his best to fill it. In a little more than a half-season, he had the most Runs Saved of any AL catcher, though he’ll be challenged for a Gold Glove by the likes of Murphy and Stassi, the latter of whom led the majors in our pitch-framing stat, Strike Zone Runs Saved.

    First Baseman

    Fielding Bible Favorites: Paul Goldschmidt (9), Max Muncy (6), Matt Olson (6)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Goldschmidt; AL Favorite: Olson
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Pete Alonso (5) (AL) Ty France (5), Yuli Gurriel (5)

    Goldschmidt and the Cardinals picked things up in the latter part of the season on the way to making the playoffs. The 2021 season marked the second time that he’s co-led the position in Runs Saved, the first coming in 2015 when he won his second Fielding Bible Award.

    Goldschmidt’s top challenger for a Fielding Bible Award will probably be Olson, who has won the last three of them. That’s the same number that Goldschmidt has won. Both trail Albert Pujols for the most at first base. Pujols has won five since the award was first handed out in 2006.

    Second Baseman

    Fielding Bible Favorites: Whit Merrifield (14), Marcus Semien (11), David Fletcher (11)

    NL Gold Glove Favorites: Adam Frazier (7), Tommy Edman (6), Kolten Wong (6) AL Favorite: Merrifield
    Other Top Contenders (NL): Jake Cronenworth (5), Jean Segura (5), Jazz Chisholm (5) (AL) Jorge Polanco (3)

    Wong has won the last three years here but there are a few players who could supplant him, led by Merrifield, who was basically a full-time second baseman this season after previously moving to center field. Merrifield’s 14 Runs Saved far exceeded his previous high of 3.

    Semien is another strong contender. He made the move from shortstop and excelled both with the bat and the glove.

    Shortstop

    Fielding Bible Favorites: Carlos Correa (20), Andrelton Simmons (15)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Trevor Story (9); AL Favorite: Correa
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Edmundo Sosa (8), Kevin Newman (7), Brandon Crawford (6), Paul DeJong (6) (AL) Isiah Kiner-Falefa (10), J.P Crawford (8).

    Simmons has won this award six times. Correa never has. But after finishing fourth in the voting last year, this may be Correa’s best shot. He played in 148 games, his most since 2016 (153) and easily led shortstops in Runs Saved.

    The intrigue here may be in the Gold Glove at shortstop in the NL, where there are several formidable contenders. Story had the most Runs Saved among them but Brandon Crawford impressed throughout the year in a season in which he seemed to turn the clock back to past excellence.

    Third Baseman

    Fielding Bible Favorites: Ke’Bryan Hayes (16), Austin Riley (13), Ryan McMahon (13)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Hayes; AL Favorites: Matt Chapman (10), José Ramírez (10)
    Other Top Contenders: (NL) Nolan Arenado (6), Manny Machado (6) (AL) Yoan Moncada (3)

    The idea that this award wouldn’t go to Arenado (who has won 4 of the last 6) or Chapman (who took the other 2) will seem ridiculous to some people. But for those who watched baseball this year, Hayes and McMahon in particular were outstanding both statistically and via the eye test. That’s why we labeled them as this year’s favorites along with Riley, who might be one of the most improved defensive players in baseball.

    Next week’s Stat of the Week will preview outfielders, pitchers, and the multi-position award.

  • Stat of the Week: An Unlikely Defensive Runs Saved Champion

    Stat of the Week: An Unlikely Defensive Runs Saved Champion

    By MARK SIMON

    The 2021 team leader in Defensive Runs Saved was … the Rangers.

    Yes, the 60-102 Rangers. That’s not a misprint. They finished with 85, three more than the second-place Cardinals.

    The Rangers had by far the worst winning percentage of any team to lead the majors in Defensive Runs Saved. No other leader had won fewer than 75 games in a full season in the 18 previous seasons for which Defensive Runs Saved was calculated.

    The next four teams behind the Rangers were all playoff teams: the Cardinals, Astros, Rays, and Brewers.

    But we’re here to focus on what went right for the Rangers rather than what went wrong.

    That starts in right field where Texas got 30 Runs Saved, the most for any team at any position this season. Joey Gallo had 13 of those before he was traded to the Yankees. After the trade, rookie Adolis García became the team’s everyday right fielder. He too finished with 13 Runs Saved there, doing that in only 51 games.

    The Rangers’ top infielder was shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was one season removed from winning the Gold Glove Award at third base. He finished with 10 Runs Saved at shortstop, which trailed only Carlos Correa (21) and Andrelton Simmons (14).

    Kiner-Falefa played in 156 games for the Rangers, a luxury the Rangers didn’t have at third base, where they used seven players. But those seven combined for 15 Runs Saved, the third-most in the majors and the most of any AL team.

    Three Rangers had 4 Runs Saved at the hot corner: Brock Holt, Charlie Culberson, and Yonny Hernández.

    Though the Rangers were lacking in pitching, they had two solid catchers in Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim.

    Rangers catchers finished tied with the Rays for second in MLB in our pitch-framing metric, Strike Zone Runs Saved, just behind the Dodgers. Both Trevino and Heim rated well in that stat and Trevino was also top-notch in pitch blocking.

    In all, the Rangers got 14 Runs Saved from their catchers. Only the Pirates (20) had more.

    The combination of catcher, shortstop, third base and right field proved key for the Rangers in pushing them to the top of the leaderboard. General Manager Chris Young has plenty of work to do this offseason, but he knows where his team’s strength lies.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – 2021 Season

    Team DRS
    Rangers 85
    Cardinals 82
    Astros 76
    Rays 72
    Brewers 65
    Rockies 60
  • Stat of the Week: 2021 MLB Surprises

    Stat of the Week: 2021 MLB Surprises

    By MARK SIMON

    On this week’s edition of The SIS Baseball Podcast, we spoke with New York Times national baseball writer Tyler Kepner about the biggest surprises of the 2021 MLB season.

    These are some of the highlights:

    The Giants are the biggest surprise, as they were projected to finish below .500 but have cleared 100 wins and are about to conclude one of the best regular seasons in franchise history.

    Perhaps the most impressive and surprising thing about the Giants is that their roster is deep. They’ve had an MLB-record 17 players hit at least 5 home runs this season. Their players have been largely interchangeable. If one player sits, another steps in and the team doesn’t miss a beat.

    One of the best examples of that is that when the team starts Curt Casali at catcher rather than Buster Posey, the Giants are 42-12.

    In the American League, the Mariners were also not expected to be a contender but are within reach of an AL Wild Card spot as their extremely unusual season nears the finish line. The Mariners rank 14th in the AL in OPS, 11th in runs scored, and 8th in team ERA but entered Thursday 89-70 largely due to a 33-18 record in one-run games.

    Among the Mariners’ biggest individual surprises is reliever Paul Sewald, who changed his pitching delivery to one with a three-quarter release. Sewald’s fastball averages only 92 MPH, but he’s averaged the second-most strikeouts per 9 innings (14.2) among AL pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. Not bad for someone who had a 5.50 ERA in four seasons with the Mets prior to 2021.

    As Tyler pointed out, the Rays also qualify as a surprise to some extent, though calling a 2020 World Series team a surprise seems a little odd. But the way that they’ve gotten to an AL East title and nearly 100 wins was unexpected.

    Tampa Bay traded one of its three top starters from last season’s team (Blake Snell), lost another to free agency (Charlie Morton) and had the other (Tyler Glasnow) for only 88 innings before a season-ending injury. Three of the Rays’ top four pitchers in innings pitched have ERAs over 5.

    The Rays lead the AL in runs scored because their lineup is loaded. Of their top 13 players in plate appearances, 11 are above average in OPS+ and the other two hitters are only a smidge below average.

    We’ll close with our favorite player stat surprise of 2021, one we’ve shared a few times as the season has moved along.

    The Rockies certainly felt Nolan Arenado’s absence after trading him to the Cardinals this past offseason. But that was more so in terms of Arenado’s bat than his glove.

    Rockies third basemen (led by Ryan McMahon and Joshua Fuentes) have combined for 24 Defensive Runs Saved this season. Arenado has only 7.

    One of the beauties of baseball is its unpredictability. These are just a few of the unpredictable highlights of 2021. Hope you’ll listen to this episode to hear a few more.

  • Stat of the Week: 2021 Minor League Standouts

    Stat of the Week: 2021 Minor League Standouts

    By MARK SIMON

    The Braves have a long line of excellent defensive center fielders, from Marquis Grissom and Andruw Jones to more recently with Ender Inciarte. There’s another pretty good one in the pipeline in Michael Harris.

    Harris, a 20-year-old who was born in Dekalb, Georgia, not far from Atlanta, led all minor league center fielders with 14 Defensive Runs Saved this season for the Class-A Rome Braves.

    “Defensively, I feel like I can cover a lot of ground, have pretty good instincts out there, a decent arm,” Harris said recently on the SIS Baseball Podcast. “I can typically read where a ball is going to land or how hard it’s hit. I know what spot to get to when the ball is hit.”

    Harris should move up the prospect rankings heading into 2022. He had a .798 OPS, 58 points better than the High-A East league average and ranked tied for third in the league with 27 stolen bases in 31 attempts.

    One of the top minor league prospects, catcher Keibert Ruiz, was traded from the Dodgers to the Nationals in the deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers.

    Ruiz, who has gotten a brief look in the majors in 2021, only helped his status in Triple-A this season. His 33% hard-hit rate (percentage of at-bats ending in a hard-hit ball) was the highest of anyone at that level.

    Ruiz hit .310 with a .993 OPS in 72 games in Triple-A this season. He spent much of the season with Oklahoma City in the hitter-friendly Triple-A West, but hit .308 with five home runs in 78 at-bats with Rochester in the less hitter-friendly Triple-A East.

    Ruiz has been in Baseball America’s Top 100 preseason prospect rankings in each of the last four seasons. There will be high expectations for him in 2022.

    If you’ve been paying attention to the Brewers recently, you might have noticed their usage of left-handed pitcher Aaron Ashby, who has a 2.77 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26 innings in nine games.

    After allowing seven runs in 2/3 of an inning in his MLB debut, Ashby has settled down. In his last three appearances, he’s pitched eight scoreless innings.

    Ashby had a 4.41 ERA at Triple-A Nashville, but perhaps that number was a little deceiving. The 23-year-old had the lowest hard-hit rate in Triple-A at 9%.

    Part of the reason for that – batters weren’t able to hit the ball at all. He had 100 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings pitched. The SIS version of hard-hit rate uses at-bats as a denominator rather than batted balls, thus rewarding a high-strikeout pitcher like Ashby.

    Ashby’s hard-hit rate so far in the majors is 16%, basically a match for closer Josh Hader. He’s worth keeping on your radar through the end of the season and into October.

  • Stat of the Week: Cardinals Lead The Way … Again

    Stat of the Week: Cardinals Lead The Way … Again

    By MARK SIMON

    In the ninth inning of a tie game against the Royals on August 8, Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt threw away a sacrifice attempt, an error that led to the go-ahead run eventually scoring.

    The Cardinals ended the day 55-56, 10 1/2 games out of the NL Central lead and 8 games back of the Padres for the second Wild Card spot.

    A pair of deals at the trade deadline for pitchers J.A. Happ and Jon Lester seemed like an attempt at feigning a level of postseason contention that didn’t exist.

    Per FanGraphs, their playoff odds entering August 9 were 1.3%.

    Just over five weeks later, the Cardinals have new life. They’ve soared into the second Wild Card spot with a 20-13 surge.

    The Cardinals defense has been a huge part of that. The Cardinals lead MLB with 73 Defensive Runs Saved this season.

    If the Cardinals finish the season with the most Runs Saved, they’ll be the first team to lead the majors in that stat in consecutive years.

    SIS has been tracking Runs Saved since 2003.

    This is a team loaded with defensive talent. The team’s catcher (Yadier Molina), first baseman (Goldschmidt), third baseman (Nolan Arenado) and left fielder (Tyler O’Neill) have all won at least one Fielding Bible Award for defensive excellence.

    Our Defensive Player of the Month for August, center fielder Harrison Bader, leads the Cardinals with 18 Runs Saved, 2 shy of Michael A. Taylor of the Royals for the lead among all outfielders.

    Three other players have at least 10 Runs Saved. O’Neill leads MLB left fielders with 11. Goldschmidt leads all first basemen with 10. Rookie infielder Edmundo Sosa also has 10.

    There’s so much depth on the roster that Arenado, who has won four Fielding Bible Awards, ranks fifth on the Cardinals with 7 Runs Saved. Molina, one of the top defensive catchers in MLB history, ranks eighth on the team with 4 Runs Saved.

    Another player worth noting is utility man Tommy Edman, who has 6 Runs Saved in playing time split primarily between second base and right field. Edman leads the Cardinals and ranks tied for fifth in MLB with 28 Good Fielding Plays (Web Gems and heads-up plays such as cutting off a base hit to prevent a baserunner from advancing an extra base).

    The Cardinals infield of Goldschmidt, (usually) Edman, Sosa (or Paul DeJong), and Arenado has converted 78% of ground balls and bunts into outs this season, the highest rate in the majors.

    Lastly, Cardinals pitchers have done their part too. They rank second at the position in Defensive Runs Saved with 7. Four different pitchers on the team lead the way with 3 Runs Saved.

    The Cardinals entered August 9 ranked 9th in Runs Saved with 35. Since that day, the Cardinals have 38 Runs Saved, 10 more than the next-closest team, the Dodgers.

    That the Cardinals are tops in the majors isn’t that much of a surprise. Our projection in spring training was that they would finish as the MLB leader. They’ve lived up to the billing so far.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – 2021 Season

    Team Runs Saved
    Cardinals 73
    Astros 66
    Rockies 62
    Brewers 59
    Rays 58
    Rangers 55
    Marlins 54
    Dodgers 48
    Mets 48
    Braves 41

    To read about the Cardinals penchant for great plays behind Adam Wainwright, visit the SIS Blog and to learn more about Tommy Edman’s defensive play this season, check out his interview on The SIS Baseball Podcast.

  • Stat of the Week: The Fielding Bible All-Decade Team

    By Mark Simon

    Since 2006, Baseball Info Solutions has used The Fielding Bible Awards as its means of honoring the top defensive players in baseball. The Fielding Bible Awards have been voted on by a panel of experts – baseball writers, broadcasters, statistical analysts, and former major league players. Voting is based on both visual observation and performance in objective fielding metrics. With that in mind, we decided to take the voting from past Fielding Bible Awards and use it to come up with a team of the best defensive players in the 2010s.

    Our methodology for picking the All-Decade representatives was to use the Fielding Bible voting that was conducted annually throughout the decade. The player with the highest summed vote total from the 10 seasons was deemed the winner at that position. Note that for the years 2010 to 2012, each player’s vote total was multiplied by 1.2 to account for the use of 10 voters in those years compared to 12 in the other years.

    Fielding Bible Award Vote Leaders, 2010-2019
    PositionPlayer
    First BasePaul Goldschmidt
    Second BaseDustin Pedroia
    ShortstopAndrelton Simmons
    Third BaseNolan Arenado
    Left FieldAlex Gordon
    Center FieldLorenzo Cain
    Right FieldJason Heyward
    CatcherYadier Molina
    PitcherZack Greinke
    Multi-PositionJavier Báez

    Paul Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for most of the decade. His three Fielding Bible Awards (2013, 2015, 2017) were the most of anyone at first base in the 2010s. Goldschmidt’s 9.5 Scoop Runs Saved rank second to Freddie Freeman among first basemen this decade.

    Dustin Pedroia’s four Fielding Bible Awards (2011, 2013, 2014, 2016) are the most for any second baseman since BIS began presenting the honor in 2006. Known for a distinct and sizable crow hop that he combined with great anticipatory skills, Pedroia twice led the position in Defensive Runs Saved during the 2010s and had four straight seasons with at least 10 Runs Saved.

    Andrelton Simmons is the only player to win a Fielding Bible Award in six straight seasons. He did it in his first six full seasons in the major leagues (2013 to 2018). His 193 Defensive Runs Saved are the most of any player at any position for the decade, 115 more than the shortstop with the next-highest total (Brandon Crawford, 78).

    Nolan Arenado didn’t win a Fielding Bible Award until his third major league season, but once he did, he won three in a row (2015 to 2017). Arenado’s 105 Defensive Runs Saved were the most of any third baseman this decade, even though he didn’t start playing until 2013.

    Alex Gordon has had staying power. His four Fielding Bible Awards (2012, 2013, 2014, 2018) are the most of any left fielder, edging Brett Gardner and Carl Crawford by one. His 45 Outfield Arm Runs Saved this decade were the key to his success. They are the most by any outfielder in the 2010s.

    Lorenzo Cain became the first center fielder to win the Fielding Bible Award in consecutive seasons (2018, 2019) and also won the Multi-Position award in 2014. Cain’s specialty has been chasing down the deep fly ball. In 2019 he tied the single-season mark for home run robberies (5) since BIS began tracking them in 2004.

    Jason Heyward’s consistently excellent defense won him three Fielding Bible Awards (2012, 2014, 2015). He reached double-digits in Defensive Runs Saved in right field in each of the first eight years of the decade. His 141 Runs Saved from Range & Positioning are more than double the next-highest total of any right fielder this decade.

    Yadier Molina won three Fielding Bible Awards in the 2000s and three more in the 2010s, giving him six in total. That ties Andrelton Simmons for the most such awards won. Molina set the mark for most Defensive Runs Saved by a catcher with 30 in 2013 (since tied by Roberto Pérez in 2019). He also totaled 29 in 2012 and 26 in 2010.

    Zack Greinke’s only Fielding Bible Awards came the last two seasons. But he’s been in the hunt frequently, finishing second four times this decade. Greinke’s kept himself in top shape and been a standout athlete throughout his career. That’s allowed him to get off the mound aggressively to make plays that other pitchers don’t make.

    Javier Báez won the Multi-Position award in three consecutive seasons (2016, 2017, 2018) so he comes out on top. This award comes with an asterisk in that it wasn’t given out until 2014. Had it been awarded for the entirety of the decade, there’s a chance that Ben Zobrist, who played excellent defense at second base and in the outfield, would have edged Báez out.

    For more statistical leaders, check out the 2020 Bill James Handbook and the Sports Info Solutions blog.

  • Stat of the Week: Walker, Rolen, Abreu & Hall of Fame Worthiness

    By Mark Simon

    This year’s BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot is headlined by Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter and understandably so, given his excellence in both the regular season and postseason, and his longevity.

    Jeter is a lock for election, perhaps even joining Mariano Rivera in receiving unanimous support.

    In the 2019 Bill James Handbook, Bill James unveiled a new stat (explained here and here) to show a player’s Hall of Fame Value and set the standard for election as receiving a HOF-V score of 500 or higher (the score is based on a combination of a player’s WAR and Win Share totals).

    There are 14 candidates on this year’s ballot who meet that threshold. Putting aside those whose cases are hindered by PED-related issues or other matters, let’s touch on three candidates from that list who have gotten varying levels of Hall of Fame-related support and warrant a closer look.

    Larry Walker

    Larry Walker is also going to get a lot of attention. He’s in his final year on the ballot and has a lot of public support. In the 2020 Bill James Handbook, Bill revealed the results of a study of public support for Hall of Fame candidates. Walker ranked in the top tier. Walker rates worthy of election by Bill’s Hall of Fame Value stat (598.8). He’s 12th all-time in slugging percentage and 66th in Runs Created, and won seven Gold Gloves.

    Walker received 54.6% of the vote last year and needs a bump up to 75% to be elected.

    Scott Rolen

    Scott Rolen got 10% of the BBWAA vote in his first year on the ballot and 17% last year. The Athletic senior baseball writer Jayson Stark recently wrote that Rolen could receive a sizable bounce in his third year on the ballot given that the ballot is less crowded with Hall-worthy players than it had been in recent years.

    Rolen’s offensive numbers were very good (he ranks 10th among third basemen in career Runs Created), but it’s his defensive stats that push him across the Hall of Fame line. Rolen’s 114 Defensive Runs Saved rank second among third basemen to Adrian Beltre’s 202 since Baseball Info Solutions began tracking the stat in 2003. He was the only third baseman to record 30 Runs Saved in a season until Matt Chapman did it in 2018.

    Rolen isn’t the perfect Hall of Fame candidate. Injuries cost him time and likely skill, so his numbers aren’t as eye popping as other players from his era. But he rates as worthy by Bill’s Hall of Fame Value stat (584.8) and made it to the second tier of Bill’s list of the most highly-supported players.

    Bobby Abreu

    Bobby Abreu isn’t going to be shut out of the Hall of Fame voting, but he’s not likely to be a popular choice among voters. His level of fan support in Bill’s Twitter polls was modest (he ranked just outside the top 75 in Support Score).

    However, Abreu’s candidacy is statistically credible. He hit .291/.395/.475 with 2,470 hits, 288 home runs and 400 stolen bases, and ranks in the top 20 in walks. He didn’t just clear the Hall of Fame Value bar, he did so with room to spare (596.1).

    Candidates like these three are what make Hall of Fame voting season such an interesting time. If nothing else, they spark more discussion about baseball excellence, which is always a good topic.

    Highest Hall of Fame Value Score – 2020 Ballot

    NameHOF-V
    Barry Bonds1,355.2
    Roger Clemens995.4
    Derek Jeter702.6
    Manny Ramírez685.2
    Gary Sheffield672.0
    Larry Walker598.8
    Bobby Abreu596.0
    Scott Rolen584.8
    Curt Schilling570.4
    Todd Helton562.8
    Jeff Kent560.6
    Sammy Sosa555.4
    Andruw Jones527.2
    Jason Giambi527.0

    To find your favorite player’s Hall of Fame Value, go to Bill James Online. You can also read about Hall of Fame Value and the Modern Era Committee ballot at the SIS Blog.

  • Stat of the Week: Who does the public want elected to the Hall of Fame?

    By Mark Simon

    The 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot came out on Monday, which will inevitably lead to discussion on who deserves to go into the Hall of Fame and who meets the standards of being a Hall of Famer.

    But what about the question of whom the public would most like to see go into the Hall of Fame?

    Bill James attempted to answer this question in the lead article in the 2020 Bill James Handbook. He made a list of 156 current and retired players whom he felt would receive some suport and had each candidate polled six times over a three-month period this past summer, comparing that player’s Hall of Fame support to three other candidates on each poll.

    That resulted in 234 polls and nearly 290-thousand votes, which were analyzed by 12 formulas to measure each player’s Hall of Fame support.

    The result of all of the polling was that each player received a Support Score, indicative of how much public support they received. From that, Bill grouped players into six levels of Hall of Fame support. There were 14 players who received overwhelming support – a Support Score of more than 200 (an average score is 100). Some of them are still active. Some are long retired. One (Lou Whitaker) is on the Modern Era Committee Ballot. Four who are on the 2020 BBWAA ballot are marked in bold.

    Highest Hall of Fame Support Score
    NameSupport Score
    Barry Bonds1,445
    Justin Verlander772
    Adrián Beltré742
    Clayton Kershaw558
    Roger Clemens473
    Max Scherzer439
    Pete Rose414
    David Ortiz343
    Joe Jackson335
    Larry Walker292
    Alex Rodriguez258
    Lou Whitaker247
    Manny Ramírez223
    Carlos Beltrán220

    “The most striking thing about the list of players most-favored for Cooperstown selection is the concentration on the list of those who have been kicked out of baseball in gambling scandals (two) or kept out of the Hall of Fame in righteous indignation about PEDs or suspended for some period of time for failing a PED test,” Bill wrote, referring to Barry BondsRoger ClemensPete Rose, and Joe Jackson. Further, he pointed out that this isn’t a case of the public being willing to let PED usage slide. The public does care about PED usage, as evidenced by Rafael Palmeiro’s low Support Score (53).

    Granted, the polling system was imperfect because it was only polling Twitter users, but Bill noted that any system is going to have sampling issues, and he thinks this survey is “the largest and most extensive study ever of who the public WANTS to get into the Hall of Fame. That’s the goal, anyway.”

    Clemens, Bonds, and Walker are within sight of the 75% of votes needed to be elected, but still have a ways to go. Clemens received 59.5% on the last ballot, Bonds 59.1%, and Walker 54.6%.

    Clemens and Bonds have inched their way up slowly the last two years, making a gain of about 5 percentage points in that time. They have three ballots left to pick up the remaining votes needed. Walker made a jump of 20.5 percentage points from 2018 to 2019. He needs to do that again this year, in his final year on the ballot, to be elected. Ramirez has much more of an uphill climb, having received 23% of the votes in the last BBWAA balloting.

    If it were up to the Twitter-voting public, those four players would be on their way to Cooperstown. We’ll see if there’s any change among the writers to reflect that sentiment. In the meantime, buy the Handbook and check out the rest of Bill’s article to see how the public feels about the rest of the 156 notable players he included in the study.

    For more baseball content, check out the Sports Info Solutions Blog or the SIS Baseball Podcast.