Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome ESPN Stats and Info Research Specialist Evan Kaplan (@EpKap) to the show to discuss how football stats and analytics are represented on TV. The group opens with some Cam Newton discussion (1:01) before transitioning to an explanation of Evan’s job at ESPN and how he works with hosts to prepare them for shows (9:00), how he balances serving both analytically-inclined and casual fans at the same time (12:24), how much push-back he gets from ex-players when it comes to analytics (17:26), and what the future holds for football analytics on TV (25:16).
It’s not often that a move that everyone talks about as a potentially interesting story actually comes to fruition.
Since Tom Brady’s official departure from the Patriots, people have been intrigued by the possibility of another former MVP stepping in to replace him in Cam Newton. Now we have the opportunity to find out not only what a Patriots offense looks like without Tom Brady, but what it looks like when it’s headed by one of the most prolific rushers to ever play quarterback.
Of course, with Bill Belichick’s penchant for changing game plans wildly from week to week, it’s probably not prudent to try to guess at how the Pats’ offense might change with Cam under center. Instead, we’ll just compare Newton to Brady along a few dimensions, assessing where the Patriots might be able to sustain their performance and where they might fall back a bit.
Newton certainly represents a downgrade from pre-2019 Brady, but last we saw Cam for a full-ish season he was roughly as effective as Brady was last year, so perhaps Patriots fans shouldn’t be concerned? Let’s run down a few narratives that could help inform the discussion.
The offense was in decline already, so the risk is low
The biggest thing to keep in mind here is that the hole left by Brady isn’t nearly as big as it would have been had he departed a few years earlier. The Patriots had been mainstays in the upper tier of offenses with Brady at the helm, but 2019 was definitely a down year. Look at their decline in Expected Points Added per play.
Brady himself didn’t decline as much in terms of total value as he did on a per-snap basis thanks to a top-five attempt total. He ranked barely outside the top ten in Total Points among quarterbacks, but on a per-play basis was very much in the middle class.
Tom Brady’s Ranks Among Quarterbacks by Season
Season
Total Points
Total Points per Play
2016
7th
1st
2017
3rd
9th
2018
6th
8th
2019
11th
18th
Newton’s precision in a quick-hitting New England offense
This might be surprising given their reputations, but Newton has actually outperformed Brady on quick-hitting throws over the last two years. His 9.9 Total Points per 60 plays (TP/60) on zero-to-one step drops outpaces that of Brady (7.7) since the start of 2018.
A corollary of the narrative about Newton’s accuracy is that he has a history of making the best out of bigger, slower receivers like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess because he doesn’t have Brady’s pinpoint accuracy. Moving from an offense headed by two sub-six-foot receivers (D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel) and to one with some bigger targets (N’Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu Sr.) could work out better for Cam than it had for Brady.
For what it’s worth, if one of these quarterbacks does better with bigger targets, it’s Brady. Over the last two seasons, his Total Points per 60 plays when throwing to receivers at least 6’0″ tall improves, while Newton’s declines.
Total Points per 60 Plays by Targeted Receiver Height, 2018-19
Under 6’0″
6’0″ or Taller
Cam Newton
11.9
7.4
Tom Brady
10.6
13.2
Adding a new dimension via the running game
Newton’s athleticism is the most obvious X factor. You don’t need any stats to convince you that Newton’s rushing ability could open up the offense in a way we’ve never seen. The Ravens showed with their transition from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson what kind of transformation an offense can make to support an elite athlete.
That said, Cam hasn’t actually been that valuable with his legs, at least in recent seasons. Looking at the four years we have Total Points data for, he has actually cost his team value in three of the past four seasons. Some of that is the likelihood of fumbles on quarterback runs. But over the last four years he’s still only accumulated 6 Total Points on the more than 300 carries in which he didn’t fumble.
It’s worth acknowledging that Newton’s impact on the running game isn’t just limited to his own carries. As Steven Ruiz points out, his presence should open up opportunities for his running backs because other teams have to account for his rushing ability. But considering the wear and tear his body has already sustained and the lack of history the Patriots have with such athletes at quarterback, it’s fair to be conservative on Newton’s potential value on the ground. But on a one-year incentive-laden contract, perhaps anything is possible schematically.
The Final Word?
The Patriots’ signing of Cam Newton is a spike of interest in what has otherwise been a quiet offseason among all the other things going on in the world. Unfortunately, there are so many question marks involved in this transaction. We’re talking about an injury-riddled player with a totally different athletic profile to that of a player who had spent two decades on the same team. Anyone trying to assess the situation analytically should be forgiven regarding the uncertainty.
But it seems to me that these key narratives that people might point to for one reason or another are tending to go the opposite direction of what you’d think initially. And with Bill Belichick still at the helm of the Patriots, perhaps it is the best course of action to sit back and wait instead of assuming we know what will happen in Foxboro.
John Elway doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to quarterback evaluation. While he deserves credit for “discovering” four-time NFL MVP Peyton Manning, he’s spent multiple top-60 selections on busts at the position.
The first failed experiment was Brock Osweiler, who eventually retired after the Dolphins decided a better alternative to his services would be to trade a second- and fifth-round pick for a quarterback coming off one of the worst passing seasons in the Total Points era (2016-present). Said quarterback (Josh Rosen) ultimately failed to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who, by the way, has a career average net yards per attempt (5.59) that is just one one-hundredth of a yard below Elway’s.
But, no lessons were learned there. As soon as the Texans outbid Elway’s 3-year, $45M offer to Osweiler in the 2016 offseason, Elway spent a first-round pick on Paxton Lynch. That went so well that Osweiler was welcomed back to Denver in 2017 after playing poorly elsewhere. Osweiler attempted more passes for the Broncos that season than Lynch, who was cut after just two years and spent 2019 as the Steelers’ fourth-string quarterback behind an undrafted rookie out of Samford. Simply put: a competent successor to Manning has proven as elusive to Elway as a 60% completion rate was during his playing career.
Or has it?
Elway used the 42nd overall pick on Drew Lock, who was a late bloomer as a rookie and started the final five games of the season. The Broncos’ 4-1 record in those games has inspired fan confidence in Lock, but impartial viewers may be more skeptical of a five-game sample. Furthermore, Lock’s 6 Passing Total Points/60 Snaps ranked just 22nd among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. If we want to excuse his worst performance in a 23-3 loss to Chiefs on account of the winter weather conditions, that Total Points/60 figure jumps to 14 and ranks fifth in the NFL. No matter how you look at it, it’s hard to be sure about Lock entering his second year.
Conversely, it’s easy to see why some people are excited about him. He’s aggressive, flashes plus arm talent, and has the athleticism and creativity to improvise effectively. In just a few games, Lock showed that he was capable of making impressive throws outside the numbers:
Into tight windows:
And on the run:
But, as was the case on this last play, he’s also capable of making things harder on himself than they need to be. His primary read, which was the field out by the motion receiver, was open all the way and he never should have come off of it. The result was the same, but the process was inferior. And on more than one occasion, Lock’s bad process yielded a bad result.
His second career interception is a microcosm of his decisionmaking going into Year 2. It’s 2nd & 10 from the Houston 25-yard line with Denver up 38-14 with 2:47 to go in the third quarter. A field goal here would put the Broncos up four scores and effectively end the game.
The Texans end up in a split-field coverage with what appears to be quarters to the trips side and 2-man on the single receiver side. Lock seems to like the pre-snap matchup Courtland Sutton has and checks the boundary safety (#39), but he either misdiagnoses what the safety’s responsibility is or makes a bad decision to throw this ball. Perhaps he could have gotten away with it if he had been more decisive and hadn’t double-clutched, but the ball was badly underthrown, anyway. The result is an interception which likely took points off the board for Denver.
This is a less egregious error. It’s 2nd & 20 with 3:30 to go in the first quarter, and the Broncos are down 3-0 to the Lions. Detroit is playing Tampa 2 here, and the result is a checkdown to Royce Freeman (No, 28). On paper, this is a 7-yard completion, but it’s really a missed opportunity. Given the depth of the MIKE’s drop, the middle hook area should be vacated, and Jeff Heuerman (No. 82) is consequently open over the ball. Failing to target him isn’t the worst mistake in the world, but neither the WILL nor the weak safety are in a position to cover the dig route by Noah Fant (No. 87). These compounding errors set up a 3rd & long which the Broncos ultimately failed to convert.
Lock was undeniably physically talented coming out of Missouri and that continues to be the case. In spite of some bad process, he was very efficient from a Total Points standpoint when he wasn’t playing in a blizzard. However, his mental processing and decision-making have not yet caught up to his physical abilities, and that’s a recipe for volatility. On top of that, a five-game sample could be high-variance and does little to assuage concerns about the sustainability of his play. There’s only one thing we should be comfortable saying about Drew Lock at this point in time:
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome Football Outsiders Almanac contributor Thomas Bassinger (@tometrics) of the Tampa Bay Times to the show to talk about the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The group opens with an update on the team workouts organized by Tom Brady during the COVID outbreak (0:54) before moving on to how Brady fits into the Bruce Arians offense (4:29) and what to expect from Rob Gronkowski and OJ Howard (14:23). The discussion then shifts to whether the defense can be as good as they were in 2019 (22:22) and which under-appreciated players could jump into the spotlight thanks to increased media coverage this season (28:23).
In case you missed it, we’ve announced a football analytics challenge! We’ll be releasing some data that can be used to evaluate defensive linemen, including individual player alignment pre-snap and play outcomes. Then, we ask you to determine which D-line position is the most important!
This is the first time we’ve done anything like this, but we thought this was as good a time as any to start thinking about such a competition, because we can give the competition a purpose beyond the little sports analysis bubble we live in.
There isn’t an entry fee for the competition, but we ask that all participants donate any amount they would like to the United Negro College Fund. We as a company want to do more to promote racial equality, and with your help, we can take a step (or many steps!) towards that goal.
(By the way, even if you’re not interested in the competition, feel free to donate via the GoFundMe page we created for the challenge.)
For those who want to explore some of our previously-unreleased data, maybe this brief article will help give you a lay of the land before you embark on the challenge!
“What’s in the box”
The data set used for the challenge combines both play-level information and player-level information from weeks 9 to 17 of the 2019 season into a single file.
The play-level section includes basic play-by-play plus some extra data points like the Expected Points Added (EPA) of the play. There are also some interesting details about the play that might be relevant to your analysis, with a few data points specific to each of pass or run plays.
The player-level section includes the identity of all of the up-front defenders on the play, their positions as named on the roster, their alignment on that play in particular, and a number of stats they might have accumulated.
A player is included if he (a) was in a 3 point stance, (b) lined up standing on the edge on the line of scrimmage, or (c) usually lines up as a DL, even if he might have been up or off the ball on this play.
Some of the stats included in the file are given at both a play level and a player level. For example, InterceptionOnPlay will tell you if anyone intercepted the pass, and Interception will tell you if the specific player referenced in that row intercepted the pass.
A little extra info on defensive alignment
Most of the data we’re releasing for this challenge is pretty self-explanatory to anyone who has played around with football data before. The defensive alignment info is probably the biggest exception.
For starters, we have what we’re calling RosterPosition and OnFieldPosition. The former is just what we have the player labeled as on the roster. The latter is his position on the given play. In this context, that basically means “did you have your hand on the ground?” If “yes”, then you’re a defensive lineman. If “no,” then you’re a linebacker.
The one piece that requires a little more football know-how is the technique (i.e. alignment) of the defenders on each play. In the file it’s called TechniqueName.
The technique of a defender is encoded using a (mostly) numeric system where your alignment is measured by which offensive player you line up against and on which side of that player you line up. See this image from the SIS Football Rookie Handbook:
Looking at this image, you can see that when people refer to “3-technique” or “5-technique” they’re talking about lining up just outside of either the guard or tackle. And the same structure is used for either side of the center, so you might have multiple players with the same technique on a given play, just on different sides of the center. The player’s side of the ball is encoded with SideOfBall, which is from the defense’s perspective.
There’s also another data point that isn’t quite alignment-related but does convey specific information about what a player was doing on a given play. The IsRushing column tells you whether the given player was rushing the passer on designed pass plays. That column will always be zero on designed run plays.
A few more notes on the data
Event Types
Unsurprisingly, there are run plays and pass plays in the data set. The EventType column tells you whether the play was a pass or a run—not by design, just in result. So a scramble would be counted as a run play for this purpose. There are also “Challenge pass” and “Challenge run” event types, which are just passes or runs where a replay review changed the call on the field.
For the purposes of this kind of analysis, it’s likely fine to just assume that the “challenge” version of each event type is the same as the regular one.
Run plays
We have included RunDirection and UsedDesignedGap to help you analyze run plays based on where the play was designed to go and whether the offense succeeded in running that direction.
The run directions are gap-based using the A-B-C-D naming convention (moving from inside to outside). A run to the left B gap, for example, was intended to go between the guard and the tackle on the left side.
If a run was intended to go between the right guard and the center and the rusher bounced the run outside the tackles, RunDirection would be “Right A Gap” and UsedDesignedGap would be set to 0.
Pass plays
In addition to basic information like whether the pass was completed or intercepted, we have also included the air yards on the throw (ThrowDepth). At both the play level and player level, we’ve included information about Pressure (hits, hurries, knockdowns, sacks) and PassBreakup (defensed, batted, deflected, or intercepted passes).
Penalties
While we understand that the value of defensive players can be affected by their ability to draw offensive penalties (or commit penalties themselves), we decided that we would remove all plays with an accepted penalty from the data. There is enough gray area in how one should approach analyzing plays with penalties that it was decided to remove them from the picture.
It’s going to be a fun month while we have this challenge going! If you have any questions about the data set or the competition in general, don’t hesitate to e-mail challenge@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com.
Despite the inherent volatility of defensive performance at a team level, examining specific coaching schemes may provide greater consistency when analyzing defensive performance in the turnover department. To do this, I looked at season-level takeaway statistics for each defensive playcaller dating back to 2015. While there was a rotating door for top and bottom teams in takeaways, two coaches consistently had defenses performing above the league average: Wade Phillips and Bob Sutton.
Wade Phillips
Season
Team
Takeaways (Rank)
Yards/Return
Points
2015
Broncos
24 (T-10th)
14.2
30
2016
Broncos
24 (T-11th)
17.5
24
2017
Rams
27 (T-5th)
15.3
18
2018
Rams
29 (3rd)
13.7
24
2019
Rams
23 (9th)
8.9
18
Bob Sutton
Season
Team
Takeaways (Rank)
Yards/Return
Points
2015
Chiefs
28 (3rd)
19.6
36
2016
Chiefs
29 (1st)
12.3
24
2017
Chiefs
24 (7th)
12.3
18
2018
Chiefs
26 (T-5th)
12.7
24
NFL Averages
Season
Takeaways
Yards/Return
Points
2015
21.6
11.0
15.4
2016
20.6
10.3
10.1
2017
20.9
12.4
14.4
2018
20.8
10.9
12.4
2019
21.1
10.8
12.4
To measure the statistical significance of the performance of each coach when compared to the rest of the league, an unpaired two-sample t-test was used for each statistic. Based on these tests, Phillips and Sutton displayed significantly higher takeaway and points scored numbers than the rest of the league. However, the test revealed that their average yards per return were not significantly different than the rest of the league. While takeaway numbers are typically up to chance, the results of these tests indicate both Phillips and Sutton defenses have held a tangible edge over the rest of the league in terms of generating both takeaways and points on takeaways since 2015.
Wade Phillips
In each of the last five seasons, Phillips’ defenses generated more takeaways than the NFL average with nearly 50% above the league average in 2018. In addition to generating takeaways, Phillips-led defenses were also consistently above league average in generating yards and points on takeaways. Even more impressive are these results being seen with two separate teams.
Two Super Bowl seasons for Wade Phillips (2015 Broncos and 2018 Rams) were highlighted by strong performances in the turnover department. In 2015, Denver’s defense tied for third in points on defensive takeaways in the regular season. The Rams 2018 defense ranked third in takeaways and tied for second in points generated on takeaways.
The value of Phillips coaching is especially apparent in the 2018 season, when compared to a team with similar takeaway numbers. Gregg Williams’ 2018 Cleveland Browns defense finished with 31 takeaways, two more than Phillips’ Rams defense. However, Cleveland only generated 6.2 yards per return and did not score any points on takeaways.
While this could be chalked up to mere volatility in takeaway statistics in a given year, there is an underlying trend. In the majority of seasons since 2015, defenses under Williams have performed below average in takeaways, average return yards, and points generated on takeaways, which points to the ability or inability of certain coaches in this facet of the game.
Bob Sutton
From 2015-2018, Bob Sutton’s defenses in Kansas City finished above average in takeaways and points generated from takeaways each season, along with finishing above average in yards per return in three of four seasons. Sutton’s defenses tied for fourth or better in points generated on takeaways in three of four seasons, finishing tied for first in 2015. The Chiefs defense also led the league in yards per return in 2015.
The play of the Chiefs’ defense in terms of generating and capitalizing on takeaways under Sutton contributed to the team’s four playoff appearances and three division wins in that span, along with a conference championship appearance.
Sutton currently serves as a senior assistant for the Falcons. While his Kansas City defenses performed well in the turnover department, they received significant criticism elsewhere. In 2018, the Chiefs allowed the second most yards per game (405.5), eighth most yards per play (5.9) through the regular season, and ninth most points per game (26.3) through the regular season. The final straw came in the AFC Championship, where Kansas City’s defense lost two fourth quarter leads and failed to stop the Patriots from scoring a touchdown on the opening drive of overtime. Following Sutton’s replacement, the 2019 Chiefs would go on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
There are several lessons to be learned from this analysis:
While it is largely random how teams perform year-to-year in terms of takeaways, certain coaches have displayed a particular aptitude for both generating takeaways and efficiency on the returns of said takeaways.
Defensive performance on takeaways is not solely dependent on coaching ability: many other factors such as individual player ability, level of competition, and sheer luck also play roles in the outcomes of takeaways.
Overall defensive performance relies on much more than just results in the turnover department, which is why both Phillips and Sutton are no longer with their respective teams.
Coaches who have performed well in terms of takeaways in recent years to keep an eye on include:
Bill Belichick: With Belichick calling the shots for the Patriots defense in 2019, New England finished with the second most takeaways in the league, tied for third in points generated on takeaways, and was above average in yards per return.
Don Martindale: In his two years leading the Ravens defense, the team has finished first in yards per return (2018) and tied for first in the NFL in points generated on takeaways (2019).
Todd Bowles: In his first season as the Buccaneers defensive coordinator, Bowles coached the defense to a tie for the lead in points generated on takeaways, a second place finish in yards per return, and a fifth place finish in takeaways.
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome Michael Kist (@MichaelKistNFL) of Bleeding Green Nation (@BleedingGreen, @BGN_Radio) to the show to talk Philadelphia Eagles. The group opens with a discussion of the team’s decision to draft Jalen Hurts (1:46) and then transitions to the confidence level in the Eagles’ decision-makers heading into 2020 (11:05), some offensive tendencies (specifically in the passing game) (17:06), and defensive tendencies to watch for with the secondary (22:12), when blitzing (30:52), and with the off-ball linebackers (34:30).
The timelines can vary, but most people in the personnel community would agree that by the end of their third professional season, you usually know how good a player is. Perhaps that is why the cutoff point to accept a first-rounder’s fifth-year option falls in the May following their third year.
That deadline has passed and only two of the three quarterbacks taken in the first round had their options picked up. The Chiefs and the Texans opted in on Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, respectively, whereas the Bears traded a fourth-round pick for Nick Foles’ bloated contract and decided on a four-year term limit for Mitch Trubisky.
This means that Marquise Williams’ old backup at UNC is currently not guaranteed to make any money in the NFL after the upcoming campaign, but it’s still possible for him to earn 2021 guarantees similar to what his former backup Chase Daniel earned this offseason ($1.5M). Now would be a good time to compare the members of the 2017 quarterback class.
For this article, we’ll contrast Trubisky and Mahomes. There are several ways we can do this. We can do it by career accolades:
Mahomes
Trubisky
NFL MVP (2018)
Ohio’s Mr. Football (2012)
NFL OPOY (2018)
247Sports’ #206 HS recruit (2013)
NFL passing TDs leader (2018)
Third-team All-ACC (2016)
2x Pro Bowl (2018, 2019)
2nd overall pick in NFL Draft (2017)
Super Bowl champion (LIV)
Pro Bowl alternate (2018)
Super Bowl MVP (LIV)
We can do it by comparing weekly performance from a Total Points perspective:
Or, we can do it by comparing how they executed some of the same concepts in 2019.
Mesh out of 2×2 Slot Gun Weak
Week 16 (KC at CHI) Q4 10:11
The Chiefs are facing 3rd & 8 on the +14 (i.e., the opponent’s 14 yard line), and they’re looking to extend their two-touchdown lead and put the game away with roughly ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Mahomes appears to be expecting man coverage pre-snap and alerts the wheel route. When he sees the traffic created by the route distribution post-snap, he confirms that Nick Kwiatkoski (#44) will not be in a good position to leverage the wheel and lays it out for Damien Williams, showing Trubisky and the Bears how it’s done.
Week 3 (CHI at WAS) Q3 3:18
That play occurred in Week 16, though–months after Trubisky’s Monday night mishap against Washington on the same concept from the same formation. On 2nd & 3 from the +6, Trubisky’s eyes go to Allen Robinson off the snap. This is fine; it’s a good matchup and you would generally expect Robinson to be the first receiver in the progression in this look.
The problem is, Trubisky never comes off it. Josh Norman remains patient at the LOS and gets a good collision to deny a clean release on the fade. Nevertheless, Trubisky giftwraps an underthrow to Norman, giving him his only pick of the season–one in which he ranked 114th in pass defense Points Saved (-2).
Curl-Flat out of 3×1 Gun Weak
Week 16 (KC at CHI) Q1 3:32
Trubisky has yet another opportunity to witness how a franchise quarterback operates in a critical situation, this time on 3rd & Long. It’s a tie game in the first quarter, Kansas City is facing 3rd & 18 on the +47, and Andy Reid has dialed up curl-flat to the sticks. The post safety ends up being too deep to drive and assist the nickel defender, and Mahomes delivers a laser to Tyreek Hill for the first down.
Week 1 (GB at CHI) Q2 2:19
https://streamable.com/lojper
That route is the first read for Trubisky, too, but he’s once again too reluctant to move on. On 3rd & 14 from his own 23, he stares down Robinson and narrowly avoids disaster.
The Packers are in a quarter-quarter-half look, and the positioning of both the mike linebacker and the strong safety suggest that Trubisky should come off this read and look towards the outside curl. Instead, he affords the strong safety an opportunity to drive on the route and make a play on the ball.
Four Verts out of 3×1 Open Gun Weak
Week 14 (DAL at CHI) Q4 11:33
https://streamable.com/fmx1tf
Unlike some of the other plays, it’s hard to fault Trubisky for the decision he makes here. It’s the fourth quarter, the Bears are down three scores, and it’s 3rd & 7, so he admittedly needs to make something happen. If this is 1st & 10, it might be a different story, but I have no problem with him trusting his best receiver here.
The problem is that he doesn’t give Robinson a chance to make a play on the ball. Byron Jones quickly tops this route and the only way to beat his coverage is to backshoulder the throw. It’s definitely not an exercise in pitch-and-catch, but the inability to see the leverage and adjust accordingly is certainly less than ideal.
Week 3 (BAL at KC) Q2 0:53
https://streamable.com/usairy
Mahomes, though, is able to recognize the kind of throw he needs to make whenever the corner denies vertical access. In this play, the corner’s body positioning is more exaggerated – he’s in a bail technique and isn’t playing tight to the route–but Mahomes nevertheless demonstrates an understanding of where he needs to put the ball. Again, these are not easy completions to make, but NFL quarterbacks need to be able to provide such opportunities to their receivers.
Conclusion
Chicagoan holders-on might tell you that Foles’ arrival will be enough to jumpstart Trubisky’s career, but he’s never ranked better than 28th in passing Total Points in a season and seems a lost cause at this point. Both the numbers and the film lead to the same conclusion: Trubisky has a long way to go in order to prove that he can operate an NFL offense effectively.
Every NFL season we see young players who haven’t cracked the starting lineup, but nevertheless flash big-time potential. These players have taken advantage of their limited opportunities and hope to build upon them to become larger contributors the next season. Here we will highlight some of these players from last season who hope to breakout in 2020.
Players were chosen based on their performance in the SIS player value metric Total Points per Snap. To qualify for this list players have to be entering either their second or third NFL season and must have played between 10 and 40 percent of their teams’ snaps in 2019.
Guice has so far had trouble staying healthy during his first two seasons in the NFL. But when he was healthy last season, he flashed high-end potential. His 5.8 yards per rush average ranked second among backs with at least 40 carries. And he ranked first in Yards After Contact (4.6) and fourth in Broken Tackles Per 100 Rushes (28.6).
Tony Pollard, RB Cowboys
Pollard will continue to be a role player for the foreseeable future. When he is given the opportunity, he is an explosive player in both the running and passing game. As a rookie, he averaged more Yards Per Rush (5.3), Yards After Contact (4.0), and Broken Tackles Per 100 Rushes (26.7) than starter Ezekiel Elliott (4.5, 2.6, and 14.6).
Ryan Connelly, LB Giants
Connelly was well on his way to a breakout season as a rookie, before being derailed by a torn ACL. When he returns from injury, look for him to build on his 2019 season that included 20 Tackles, 3 Pressures, 2 Interceptions, and an ATD+ of 155 in only 4 games played.
George Odum, S Colts
Odum has been a reserve safety for the Colts the past two seasons since going undrafted in 2018. He put up a solid 2019 campaign racking up 36 Tackles, 2 Forced Fumbles, and allowing a completion percentage of 67% (8 completions) on 12 Targets.
Rashad Fenton, CB Chiefs
In limited playing time, mostly consisting of sub packages, Fenton had an efficient season for the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. On 15 Targets, he allowed only 6 completions and 4.6 Yards Per Target.
T.J. Edwards, LB Eagles
After going undrafted a year ago, Edwards is now projected to be the Eagles starting middle linebacker. His play in limited opportunities last season bodes well for his new role. He was above average against the run with an Adjusted Tackle Depth+ of 115 and 4 Tackles Above Expectation on designed running plays.
Foyesade Oluokun, LB Falcons
As a reserve linebacker, Oluokun made quite a few plays, racking up 62 tackles on only 291 defensive snaps. In coverage, he allowed 10 of his 12 targets to be completed. Though, he allowed only 3.3 Yards Per Target, which resulted in a combined -11.2 EPA for the offense.
Chandon Sullivan, CB Packers
Sullivan is the front-runner to take over the primary nickel spot for the Packers in 2020. In 2019, he was one of the most efficient corners in the entire NFL, allowing a league low Completion Percentage of 28.6 among corners with at least 20 targets. He also allowed a league low 3.5 Yards Per Target and broke up almost as many passes (5) as he allowed receptions (6).
D.J. Reed, S 49ers
Similarly to Fenton, Reed is another secondary player who has excelled in sub packages and could breakout if given the opportunity. After allowing a completion percentage of 81.3% during his rookie season, last year Reed allowed 5 completions on 10 targets.
Darius Phillips, CB Bengals
During his career at Western Michigan, Phillips set the FBS record with 12 non-offensive touchdowns. He hasn’t had the same level of success quite yet in the NFL, but showed his immense potential in 2019. In coverage, he was targeted 12 times, allowed only 4 Completions, had 4 Interceptions and dropped another one, and added 3 Passes Defensed.
Sports Info Solutions currently tracks approximately 40 routes run by potential receivers. Many players are better at running some routes than others, while some routes fit a player’s skill set better than others.
When looking at the stat Yards per Target (yards gained / number of targets), it gives a good indicator of how efficient receivers are at piling up yards each time their quarterback targets them. I found the most efficient receiver at six routes, or set of routes among those players who just moved on from college to the NFL and looked at their 2019 film to see what characteristics make them stand out among the rest.
The biggest thing that stands out when watching Ceedee Lamb run curl routes is his route savvy. He does a great job of reading defenses and identifying coverages. When defenders bail off the line, Lamb breaks off his route and lets his quarterback know he’s open right away. He’s able to find the open holes in zones and work away from defenders to give his quarterback a better throwing lane and give him an uncontested catch opportunity. Lamb is also really good at breaking the defender’s cushion and getting him to flip his hips just at the top of the route.
Once Lamb makes the catch, his run after catch ability allows him to turn a 5-10 yard curl route into a 20-30 yard gain. Of his 13 receptions on curl routes this season, four of them went for at least 20 yards. In a Cowboys offense in which Dak Prescott targeted a curl route on over 19% of his attempts in 2019, look for Lamb to come in right away and contribute early on.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Trevon Grimes, Florida (4SR)
2020 Draft: Undrafted – Signed by Kansas City Chiefs
The out route is a route that demands one of the most precise cuts by a receiver. Inefficient route runners often will round cuts at the top of their routes. However, regardless if the receiver is using a true speed cut or not, the route needs to be flat to the sideline and not veer upfield or that’s when the corner can jump it for an interception. With all of that said, there’s a reason why Cody White was the most efficient out route runner in 2019, and that’s because he possesses the traits needed to run a textbook out route.
White is quick off the line and does a really good job at the top of the route to drop his weight, stick his inside foot in the ground, and quickly break outside. He also has an uncanny ability of getting his head snapped around extremely quick.
The video below is the first play for Michigan State’s offense in their bowl game against Wake Forest. It’s a great look at White’s ability to stick his foot in the ground at the top of the route and then snap his head around to look for the ball. It’s so good that the corner slips trying to break with him.
https://youtu.be/LW1mtBHGWNg
When the ball approaches, White has strong hands to pluck the ball out of the air. He has the awareness along the sideline to stay inbounds on balls thrown close to the sideline and also can turn upfield and gain yards after the catch. His efficient route-running ability should give him a chance to win a back-end job for the reigning Super Bowl Champions.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Warren Jackson, Colorado State (4SR)
2020 Draft: Round 7, Pick #217 – San Francisco 49ers
Jennings lined up in the slot 76% of the time in 2019 and all 13 of his slant routes came from that spot. He’s not the fastest guy in the world (40 yard dash in 4.72 seconds at the Combine), but he makes up for it with good, precise route running.
Even when defenders have inside leverage on him, he does a good job stemming his route off the line and getting the defender to hop outside to give Jennings an inside release. At the top of the route, Jennings nearly always sticks his foot in the ground with authority to create separation. He possesses strong hands which allow him to pluck the ball out of the air and does a really good job of getting upfield quickly after the catch to break the angles of incoming defenders and gaining extra chunks of yardage.
https://youtu.be/mb9V_FbtwQw
He did have two on-target incompletions on slant routes, both in the Alabama game. One was a good defensive play to break up the pass at the catch point and the other was a concentration drop that turned into an interception. With those aside, Jennings’ route running allows for him to take a short pass for a long gain. The NCAA average yards per reception on slant routes is just over 13 yards, but Jennings was able to take 7 of 11 receptions beyond that in 2019.
The 49ers have a really strong, young crop of players at the position in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jalen Hurd, among others, but Jennings shows enough traits to contribute at the next level, whether it’s one of the last roster spots in San Francisco or with another team.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: DeVonta Smith, Alabama (4SR)
Campbell’s stat line is ridiculous. After coming to West Virginia from Florida State in 2019, Campbell caught 19 passes for 469 yards and 7 touchdowns. Additionally, 32% of his receptions and a whopping 56% of his yardage came via the post route, along with 3 of his 7 scores.
When watching Campbell run the post, it’s obvious he has the speed to win deep. If he’s pressed, his quickness off the line allows him to gain a free release and get into his route quickly. If the defender is playing off, Campbell does a good job of attacking him and then usually gives a quick, hard jab to the outside to open up the middle of the field.
Once he gets by the defender, he has the speed to create additional separation. He also possesses really good tracking ability down the field to adjust to off-target throws and still make the grab.
There is a lot of youth and uncertainty in the Jets wide receiver room right now with the exception of Jamison Crowder. Campbell has enough traits to win himself one of the last receiver spots with a good camp.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Reggie Roberson, SMU (4SR)
Duvernay is primarily a slot receiver, so all of his corner routes came out of the slot. In addition to his speed and quickness, he also possesses smarts in that he knows how to set up his route based on defender leverage. Many times he will stem to the inside off the line against defenders with inside leverage so that he can get on the same plane. At that point, he gets the defender guessing if he’s going outside or inside. Duvernay’s quickness at the top of the route allows him to gain separation as he heads for the sideline.
https://youtu.be/2BTGTTJ1vT8
He also shows strong hands to make contested catches and has good awareness and body control to stay in bounds along the sideline. Not only can he use the corner route to win deep, but he scored twice running the corner inside the 15 yard line, showing it’s an effective target type at all areas of the field.
In Baltimore’s offense, look for Duvernay to thrive out of the slot for quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Khalil Shakir, Boise State (3JR)
When you think of vertical routes, you just think of running by the defender, letting the quarterback throw it to you, and that’s that, but there’s much more to it, especially in Higgins’ case. First off, Higgins was able to get to the end zone on 6 of his 10 receptions via vertical routes, which is an absurd percentage.
He shows a burst and second gear once he gets by the defender to create even more separation with speed. In addition to that, his ability to track the ball in the air is exceptional. Higgins possesses a large catch radius and great body control to find the ball and go get it.
When a defender contests the catch, Higgins’ high point ability and strong hands allow him to still go up and make the grab. On underthrown passes, he’s even shown on more than one occasion that he can backpedal the last few steps away from the defender, use his hands to create extra separation, and go get the ball. The video below shows one of those examples.
https://youtu.be/67UoP0xHFnE
LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase led all of college football in yardage on these routes with 461 in 2019. His quarterback? New Bengals signal caller Joe Burrow. Look for Higgins and Burrow to get well-acquainted early on in Cincinnati.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Isaiah McKoy, Kent State (3JR)
NCAA Average Comparison
Now when comparing each of the players we just looked at to the NCAA averages, we can see how much they stand out. All six of these receivers turned average gains into explosive ones on their respective routes. Look for these players to excel at these routes if and when given the opportunity at the next level.
Most Efficient Receivers Returning in 2020
I’ve highlighted six names to watch for next season on certain routes in the NFL, but who are the most efficient route runners overall that are returning to college? The table below shows the top five players in Yards per Target who are returning in 2020. True Juniors dominate the list with 4th-year Senior DeVonta Smith in there as well.
Player
College
Eligibility
Targets
Rec
Yards
YPT
Ja’Marr Chase
LSU
3JR
124
84
1780
14.4
DeVonta Smith
Alabama
4SR
89
76
1259
14.2
Rashod Bateman
Minnesota
3JR
98
70
1219
12.4
Chatarius Atwell
Louisville
3JR
106
70
1276
12.0
Dyami Brown
UNC
3JR
86
51
1034
12.0
*minimum of 75 targets
It’s pretty easy to see why LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase leads the way. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award Winner, Chase helped lead LSU’s new-look offense to a National Championship by hauling in nearly 1,800 yards on 14.4 YPT.
DeVonta Smith surprised many by not declaring for the NFL Draft and returning to Alabama for his Senior season. He likely could be the best of the Alabama trio of receivers when things are all said and done.
For Rashod Bateman at Minnesota, he no longer has Tyler Johnson on the team to draw coverage away from his side. We’ll see if he can stay productive even with one of the most efficient quarterbacks in Tanner Morgan throwing to him.
Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell returns to what could be a dynamic Louisville offense which has Dez Fitzpatrick lining up with Atwell on the outside catching balls from Malik Cunningham.
North Carolina’s Dyami Brown also has a strong supporting cast. Dazz Newsome is another one of the top returning receivers in college football for 2020. They have a pretty good quarterback as well in Sam Howell controlling the offense.
Conclusion
Some players are more efficient at running certain routes than others. While it’s best to have a receiver that can run nearly every route on the route tree, it’s also good to gameplan around what receivers do best. Being efficient leads to yardage gained, which leads to first downs, which lead to touchdowns, which are points that ultimately lead to wins.
Half of the receivers among these six routes/route sets we took a look at were selected in the first three rounds of the draft just a short time ago. Find receivers that can run routes well and be efficient when given the opportunity, and you’ll likely find some of the better talent that’s headed to play on Sundays.
