BY STEVE SCHWARZ

If not for prop bets and fantasy football, would we actually watch this game?

Just kidding: It’s not that bad.

The Panthers have won two straight to start the season including a demolition of the Saints and the Texans beat up on a bad Jacksonville team before losing last week to a good Browns team. We don’t see any props we like among the quarterbacks but have a few other ones that we like.

Full disclosure: Our picks are 2-7 to start the season after an 0-3 week last week.

Here are Thursday’s selections using odds provided by DraftKings in an effort to turn that around.

You can use SISBets.com to get your own projections – registered users can try 10 free queries.

1) Anthony Miller, 2.5 receptions, under -150

Miller hasn’t played yet this season, being a healthy scratch after missing most of the preseason due to a dislocated shoulder. Even if he’s active, he likely hasn’t practiced with the new starting quarterback Davis Mills.

While he’s been absent, Brandin Cooks established himself as the No. 1 option with 21 targets with Danny Amendola, Pharaoh Brown and RB David Johnson getting six targets each.

Given his “rust” and playing for a new team after three season with the Bears, we can’t see him getting three receptions.

In fact, the SIS calculations show that the under should be a -312 favorite and DraftKings shows it at only -150.

2) Terrace Marshall Jr., 2.5 receptions, over -135

Marshall is just a rookie (LSU) and the No. 3 receiver behind Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, but he’s been solidly involved in the Panthers passing game. He’s caught three balls in each game and got six targets in their only competitive game, the Week 1 19-14 win over the Jets.

He’s getting plenty of playing time, getting 52% of their 140 snaps over the two games. Based on the SIS data, Marshall should be a -194 favorite, but DraftKings is setting the number at -135.

3) Jordan Akins, 1.5 receptions, under +115

Akins has been a solid contributor in the past with 36-418-2 in 2019 and 37-403-1 in 2020, but this season he’s gotten just four targets, with one reception in two games, and isn’t starting.

Admittedly he’s gotten plenty of snaps (85-of-139). But given that he’s not been a priority target, the SIS data has him as -196 for the under and you are being offered +115. That’s one to take.

SIS has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Its data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

 

Quarterback Passing Yards

————————————

Sam Darnold, over 265.5, -115/under -115

Davis Mills, over 211.5 -115/under -115

 

Quarterback Passing TDs

———————————–

Sam Darnold, over 1.5, TDs, -160/under +120

Davis Mills, over 1.5 TDs, +180/under -250

 

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————-

Sam Darnold, over 0.5, INTs, +110/under -150

Davis Mills, over 0.5 INTs, -205/under +155

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Sam Darnold, over 23.5, completions, +100/under -130

Davis Mills, over 18.5 completions, -120/under -110

 

Touchdown Scorers

————————–

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, -250

DJ Moore, +110

Robby Anderson, +175

Terrace Marshall Jr., +275

Sam Darnold, +310

Chuba Hubbard, +400

Dan Arnold, +400

Brandon Zylstra, +550

Ian Thomas, +800

Royce Freeman, +900

 

Houston –

Brandin Cooks, +200

Mark Ingram, +225

Phillip Lindsay, +250

Chris Conley, +300

David Johnson, +300

Anthony Miller, +400

Andre Roberts, +450

Jordan Akins, +500

Pharaoh Brown, +500

Davis Mills, +650

 

Rushing Yards

——————-

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, 82.5, over -115/under -115

Sam Darnold, 6.5, over -115/under -115

 

Houston –

David Johnson, 67.5, over -115/under -115

Mark Ingram, 36.5, over -115/under -115

Phillip Lindsay, 21.5, over -115/under -115

 

Receiving Yards

———————

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, 49.5, over -115/under -115

DJ Moore, 67.5, over -115/under -115

Robby Anderson, 43.5, over -115/under -115

Terrace Marshall Jr., 28.5, over -115/under -115

Dan Arnold, 23.5, over -115/under -115

 

Houston –

Brandin Cooks, 68.5, over -115/under -115

Mark Ingram, 3.5, over -110/under -120

Phillip Lindsay, 2.5, over -110/under -120

Chris Conley, 26.5, over -115/under -115

David Johnson, 17.5, over -110/under -120

Anthony Miller, 25.5, over -115/under -115

Jordan Akins, 16.5, over -115/under -115

Pharaoh Brown, 18.5, over -110/under -120

 

Receptions

————–

Carolina –

Christian McCaffrey, 5.5, over +105/under -140

DJ Moore, 5.5, over +110/under -145

Robby Anderson, 3.5, over -150/under +115

Terrace Marshall Jr., 2.5, over -135/under +100

Dan Arnold, 2.5, over +140/under -190

 

Houston –

Brandin Cooks, 5.5, over -115/under -115

Chris Conley, 2.5, over +100/under -135

David Johnson, 2.5, over +105/under -140

Anthony Miller, 2.5, over +110/under -150

Jordan Akins, 1.5, over -150/under +115

Pharaoh Brown, 1.5, over -180/under +135

 

By Steve Schwarz

These NFC East battles are typically hard-fought, low-scoring affairs and last season the two games between the Giants and the Washington Football Team averaged just 41 combined points. Add in a backup quarterback in Taylor Heinicke for injured Ryan Fitzpatrick and we might see even less wide open football which is why most of the best prop bets involve ‘unders’ this week.

All odds are from Parx Casino

1) Taylor Heinicke, under 22.5 completions, +104

Forget the playoff game against Tampa Bay in which Heinicke threw for 306 yards, because this isn’t a playoff game and the WFT isn’t forced to throw or lose big after being down big to Tom Brady in the second half.

This will be a low-scoring contest with a conservative offensive strategy featuring Antonio Gibson. Look at last week when Washington was in a close game with the Chargers; combined between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Heinicke they threw the ball just 21 times.

Heinicke played in 39-of-55 offensive plays (71%) and threw the ball 15 times. You are getting plus odds when the SIS data suggests the under should be a -166 favorite.

2) Devontae Booker, score TD, +375

The Giants are being very protective of running back Saquon Barkley, which should give an opportunity for Booker to shine. Barkley had only 10 rushing attempts last week and we are predicting just over 11 this time around, while Booker should accumulate more than seven touches with a 26% chance to score.

That translates to about +286. Here, we are getting +375.

3) Terry McLaurin, under 5.5 receptions, +103. SB -237

With fewer opportunities comes fewer chances for McLaurin to accumulate six receptions for the over. In fact, we are predicting just 6.6 targets and 4.5 receptions for 56 yards.

SIS makes him a -237 for under 5.5 receptions and the casino is offering +103. Take it.

SIS has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

 

Quarterback Passing Yards

———————————–

Daniel Jones, over 230.5 -114/under -114

Taylor Heinicke, over 244.5, -115/under -113

 

Quarterback Passing TDs

———————————–

Daniel Jones, over 1.5 +145/under -195

Taylor Heinicke, over 1.5, +110/under -145

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Daniel Jones, over 20.5 completions -113/under -113

Taylor Heinicke, over 22.5 completions, -136/under +104

 

Quarterback Interceptions

———————————-

Daniel Jones, over 0.5 completions -165/under +125

Taylor Heinicke, over 0.5 completions, -140/under +105

 

Touchdown Scorers

————————–

New York –

Saquon Barkley, +155

Kenny Golladay, +245

Sterling Shepard, +265

Devontae Booker, +375

Kyle Rudolph, +390

Daniel Jones, +430

Darius Slayton, +420

Kadarius Toney, +750

Kaden Smith, +900

 

Washington –

Antonio Gibson, -110

Terry McLaurin, +148

Logan Thomas, +170

Dyami Brown, +335

Taylor Heinicke, +390

Adam Humphries, +410

JD McKissic, +425

Cam Sims, +820

Jaret Patterson, +1300

 

Rushing Yards

——————-

Daniel Jones, 19.5, over -120/under -109

Antonio Gibson, 67.5, over -114/under -114

 

Receiving Yards

———————

New York –

Kenny Golladay, 54.5, over -112/under -117

Sterling Shepard, 56.5, over -112/under -117

Darius Slayton, 37.5, over -114/under -114

 

Washington –

Antonio Gibson, 17.5, over -117/under -112

Terry McLaurin, 72.5, over -114/under -115

Logan Thomas, 49.5, over -115/under -114

Dyami Brown, 31.5, over -117/under -112

Adam Humphries, 26.5, over -117/under -113

 

Receptions

————–

New York –

Kenny Golladay, 3.5, over -182/under +140

Sterling Shepard, 4.5, over -167/under +128

Darius Slayton, 2.5, over -150/under +115

 

Washington –

Antonio Gibson, 2.5, over -167/under +128

Terry McLaurin, 5.5, over -134/under +103

Logan Thomas, 4.5, over -118/under -110

Dyami Brown, 2.5, over -162/under +124

Adam Humphries, 2.5, over -118/under -110

By Steve Schwarz

All odds via Parx Casino. 

All SIS projections via SISBets.com

 The first game, and the first week of the season, can frequently provide good opportunities to beat the odds because, with limited preseason work, most sites are just taking educated guesses. Thursday’s Buccaneers-Cowboys game should be a relatively high-scoring affair with a 51.5 point over/under and is expected to be the third-highest scoring game of the weekend.

Thursday’s season opener –

1) Tom Brady, under 300.5 passing yards, -112

Sure Tom Brady is the “goat” but that doesn’t mean you can’t bet against him when the numbers dictate. In this case the over is too high as the SIS data says he’ll complete 23.5 passes for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns. Also, with Tampa Bay an 8.5-point favorite, the fourth quarter might be a case where the Bucs feature the running attack to shorten the game.

 

2) Ronald Jones II, score TD, +125

3) Ronald Jones II, over 48.5 rushing yards, -113

Gaming sites are underestimating Ronald Jones but we aren’t. He is the starter and gets the first chance to control the workload. Our data shows he has a 59.5% chance of scoring which should make him a -147 favorite, not a +125 underdog. Our tools predict 68 rushing yards which makes him a huge favorite to cover the over on the small 48.5-yard number. We expect just 47 yards from Leonard Fournette and no rushing yards from the pass-catching specialist Giovani Bernard.

 

4) Blake Jarwin, over 1.5 receptions, -112

5) Blake Jarwin, over 21.5 receiving yards, -112

Jarwin was on a short list of breakout tight ends heading into last year before a knee injury cost him the season. He’s another player being overlooked and in Week 1 even a modest effort could cover both the receptions and yardage numbers. There’s a reason the team signed him to a four-year, $22 million deal and he will find a niche even with all the wide receiver talent on this Cowboys team. Our analysis is predicting 3 receptions for 36 yards, easily covering both totals.

 

6) Michael Gallup, over 3.5 receptions, -110.

When people talk about the Cowboys’ receiving corps they always talk about Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, but seemingly forget the third man Gallup. Gallup has seen more than 100 targets in each of the last two seasons and averaged a solid 975 yards a season. He has also averaged over four catches per game over that span.

In Week 1 of 2021 we actually have Gallup slightly ahead of his two compatriots in receptions: Gallup 4.8, Cooper 4.8 and Lamb 4.7.

 

Those are our suggestions. Good luck with your choices tonight!

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Its is used in team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

 

Full list of props considered

Quarterback Touchdown Passes

——————————————

Dak Prescott, 1.5, over -135/under +110

Tom Brady, 2.5, over +145/under -182

 

Quarterback Passing Yards

———————————–

Dak Prescott, over 280.5 -112/under -110

Tom Brady, over 300.5, -112/under -112

 

Quarterback Completions

———————————-

Dak Prescott, 25.5 completions, over -134/under +103

Tom Brady, 25.5 completions, over +103/under -134

 

Touchdown Scorers

————————–

Dallas –

Ezekiel Elliott, -125

Amari Cooper, +175

CeeDee Lamb, +165

Michael Gallup, +270

Jarwin Blake, +500

Dak Prescott, +340

Tony Pollard, +450

Dalton Schultz, +475

 

Tampa Bay –

Mike Evans, -103

Ron Jones, +125

Chris Godwin, +143

Leonard Fournette, +170

Antonio Brown, +175

Rob Gronkowski, +275

OJ Howard, +430

Gio Bernard, +480

Tom Brady, +500

Scotty Miller, +525

 

Rushing Yards

——————-

Ezekiel Elliott, 55.5, over -112/under -112

Ron Jones, 48.5, over -113/under -110

 

Receiving Yards

———————

Dallas –

Amari Cooper, 60.5, over -113/under -110

CeeDee Lamb, 59.5, over -113/under -110

Michael Gallup, 48.5, over -110/under -113

Ezekiel Elliott, 21.5, over -113/under -110

Blake Jarwin, 21.5, over -112/under -112

 

Tampa Bay –

Mike Evans, 62.5, over -114/under -109

Antonio Brown, 60.5, over -110/under -113

Chris Godwin, 56.5, over -112/under -112

Rob Gronkowski, 31.5, over -113/under -110

Ron Jones, 5.5, over -109/under -114

 

Receptions

————–

Dallas –

Amari Cooper, 5.5, over +110/under -143

CeeDee Lamb, 5.5, over +118/under -155

Michael Gallup, 3.5, over -134/under +103

Ezekiel Elliott, 3.5, over +107/under -139

Blake Jarwin, 1.5, over -190/under +144

 

Tampa Bay –

Mike Evans, 3.5, over -182/under +138

Antonio Brown, 4.5, over -155/under +118

Chris Godwin, 4.5, over -143/under +110

Rob Gronkowski, 2.5, over -159/under +122