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Category: 2023 MLB

  • 2023 Postseason Player To Watch: Bryson Stott

    2023 Postseason Player To Watch: Bryson Stott

    Photo: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire

    As the Phillies head to the postseason for the second year in a row, it’s worth noting that national viewers were first introduced to Bryson Stott around this time last year. This time around they’ll be seeing a considerably improved player.

    In 2022, Stott hit.279 with a 107 WRC+ from August until the end of the season. He also began to display some key traits during the Phillies deep playoff run that foreshadowed future success.

    Despite only posting a .482 OPS in last year’s postseason, Stott was able to work deep counts by fouling off pitches and generally being a pest at the bottom of the Phillies potent lineup. He ended the postseason averaging over 4.6 pitches per plate appearance, including a 12-pitch walk against Rafael Montero and a 10-pitch walk against Justin Verlander.

    Moving into the 2023 season, Stott shifted to second base to accommodate Trea Turner. This paid off immediately, as Stott put together a 17-game hitting streak to begin the season and continued to provide solid performance in all aspects of the game.

    Before a cold September, Stott maintained a batting average near .300 for almost the entire year, en route to a 4-bWAR season. Now established as an excellent starter on a playoff team, it’s worth looking at how he reached this point so quickly and how these experiences point toward greater success moving forward.

    Plate Approach

    While Stott had some success golfing low-and-in pitches early last season, the gains were largely offset by his struggles in other areas.

    Baseball Savant summarized his struggles against four seamers in general His -14 Run Value ranked 6th-worst in MLB. He hit .119 with a .214 slugging percentage against what our pitch classification system labeled high fastballs. Stott worked to flatten his bat path and give himself a better chance to do damage against high heat. After undergoing several mechanical tweaks it appears he has found a suitable approach for his profile.

    Here are some examples of these changes:

    April 8 2022:

    August 22 2022

    September 12 2023

    Take note of both his lower-body stability and hand positioning as the pitch is released. Early in his career, he used a two-piece low leg kick where his foot is in the air at release. He would then pivot the foot back open and combined with his high upright hand position, this allowed him to open his hips and attack pitches low and in.

    However, upon recommendation from Jean Segura and hitting coach Kevin Long (as documented by the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey), Stott began using a more conservative two-strike approach at all times starting in August. As seen in the second clip, Stott has crouched down significantly, lowered the angle of his hands, and kept his feet quieter by loading with an exaggerated rock and lean.

    Moving to the most recent clip, Stott adjusted further this season. Here, he lowered his hands again, adopted a heel tap for better balance, and closed off his front foot a bit. Each aspect generally assumed a more natural position, giving him a very relaxed and controlled demeanor at the plate.

    As a result of these changes, Stott posted a .278 average and .454 slugging percentage against high fastballs this year. In addition, he’s boosted his numbers against fastballs in general, with his average jumping up over 100 points and his slugging nearly 150 points.

    With his primary weakness addressed, Stott was now free to demonstrate more of his skill set. As demonstrated during the playoffs last year, Stott is well suited to working long at bats, possessing a patient early approach with the 7th-lowest first pitch swing rate (16%) and strong bat-to-ball skills with the 8th highest contact rate (85%). As a result, he ranks 17th out of 137 qualifiers in pitches per plate appearance at 4.17, putting him in the same neighborhood as other notably selective hitters such as J.P. Crawford, Ian Happ, and Juan Soto.

    The combination of contact and contact quality is in question for every hitter, so it is interesting to look at some of Stott’s peers in regards to contact and how he stacks up in some other relevant batted-ball numbers. Here are the 10 best hitters by swinging-strike rate.

    Name Swinging Strike Rate Avg exit velo Opposite-Field%
    Luis Arraez 3.1% 88.3 31.%
    Steven Kwan 3.9% 86.0 31%
    Alex Bregman 4.9% 88.6 22%
    Myles Straw 5.1% 86.3 35%
    Nico Hoerner 5.1% 86.6 29%
    Alex Verdugo 5.6% 89.2 25%
    Adley Rutschman 5.6% 88.4 29%
    Mookie Betts 5.8% 92.4 18%
    Lars Nootbaar 5.8% 89.1 25%
    Bryson Stott 6.0% 88.1 32%

    Players such as Adley Rutschman and Mookie Betts present some outliers since they possess enviable amounts of both contact and power, but it’s encouraging to see that Stott seems to slot into a second tier here, frequently producing useful contact but also providing better raw power indicators than the purely slap hitters on this list. Opposite-field percentage is also included to show that Stott is skilled at making contact to all fields but still makes authoritative contact when given the chance to pull the ball.

    Defense and Baserunning

    Bryson Stott’s defensive improvements should also be noted. After putting up mixed defensive numbers at shortstop, he has adapted quite well to second base, as he is tied for sixth at the position with +7 Defensive Runs Saved. In particular, his progress seems to stem from better arm utility. He exhibited plus range at shortstop last year, saving six runs with his range, but this was offset by his -7 throwing runs. Now at second base, he continues to show off his range (+6) but is able to pair this with improved throwing numbers (+3).

    Stott played an aggressive second base. His 80 sliding, diving, and jumping attempts ranked 2nd in MLB. His 31 plays made on slides, dives, and jumps was surpasses at second base only by Andres Gimenez. Here are two examples of how he uses a dive and a slide to each side, executing both smoothly to adjust his momentum and prepare him for the throw to first.

     

     

    One area that could still see future improvement is his general chemistry with Trea Turner, specifically demonstrated in their double play numbers. While not as drastic as primary defensive numbers, double play turns are another way that a good second baseman and shortstop can make an impact. Both Stott and Turner have struggled to convert double plays and are rated at -4 runs in this area, which is the worst mark at each position. Turner has not been a good defender this year and with both players still adjusting to this configuration there is still some room for growth here.

    Stott is also a plus baserunner and is an especially efficient base stealer, with 31 steals in 34 attempts. By Bill James’ baserunning stats, his +25 Stolen Base Gain rating tied for 8th in baseball behind names such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Turner (this stat values both volume of steals and success rate).

    Dancing On My Own

    On top of everything else, he is a great presence in postgame interviews, as some combination of Stott, Bohm, and Marsh shower the interviewee with water cups, sunflower seeds, and anything else from the dugout that is readily available. Here is what it looked like after the final game of the regular season:

    View post on imgur.com

    With so many talented young stars in the game, Bryson Stott has quietly turned himself into one of the most well-rounded ones in only his second season. It will be exciting to track his development not only in this postseason but for many years to come.

  • Examining the Relationship Between Pitch Delivery Type and Stolen Bases

    Examining the Relationship Between Pitch Delivery Type and Stolen Bases

    With a few weeks remaining in the season, there have been more than 3,000 stolen bases for the first time since 2012. Both the AL and NL stolen base leaders have over 60 apiece for the first time since Michael Bourn and Jacoby Ellsbury did it in 2009, and Trea Turner is a perfect 28-for-28 on stolen base attempts.

    Obviously, MLB’s new rules changes are the largest contributing factor to this meteoric rise, but I became curious about what else might influence the stolen base rate. That’s when I started digging into the pitch delivery type.

    Pitch delivery type is one of the many things we track at SIS. We categorize deliveries into three different types:

    Full-Leg Kick

    In-Between

    Slide Step

    We found one with a side angle that makes it more obvious.

    Now, I understand that it’s not exactly rocket science to know that the more time a pitcher takes to deliver the pitch, the better the runner’s chances are of stealing the base. The goal here is simply to apply data to help better understand the disparities between delivery types, as they relate to stolen bases.

    I began by collecting some data from this season. The following tables show the number of steal attempts per each delivery type along with the success rate of the baserunners. I separated the data into two different tables: steal attempts into 2nd and steal attempts into 3rd.

    A) Attempting to Steal 2nd (2023)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 2,095 84%
    In-Between 653 77%
    Slide Step 102 79%

    B) Attempting to Steal 3rd (2023)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 261 89%
    In-Between 51 84%
    Slide Step 6 100%

    Looking at the previous two tables, there is one fatal flaw that jumps out immediately. Sample size. There simply isn’t a large enough sample size from 2023 to draw any sort of conclusion about a relationship between stolen bases and delivery types.

    So I started doing a little more digging and collected data from the previous six seasons, ranging from 2017 to 2022. I intentionally kept data from 2023 out of this sample because of the impact that the rule changes might have on it.

    C) Attempting to Steal 2nd (2017 – 2022)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 9,249 79%
    In-Between 3,346 71%
    Slide Step 660 68%

     

    D) Attempting to Steal 3rd (2017 – 2022)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 1,121 82%
    In-Between 211 77%
    Slide Step 55 75%

     Now that’s a sample size I can work with.

    As expected, runners are more successful on delivery types that take more time. I found it interesting though that runners have a higher success rate stealing 3rd as opposed to 2nd. Stealing 3rd is inherently much more difficult than its counterpart, so why is this?

    This is likely due to the fact that attempting to steal 3rd is a task that’s generally reserved for only the fastest players on the team. Runners must be more certain of success before trying to steal 3rd.

    Sample size is also worth noting here, particularly when looking at attempts into 3rd on slide steps. The random variability in 55 attempts could possibly be skewing this number but it’s a significant step up from the 6 attempts in 2023 alone.

    When initially looking at the tables above, I noticed how the number of attempts decrease as you go down from full leg kick to slide step. Ultimately, the goal is to prevent the runner from advancing, so preventing him from even trying is a success in its own right. The problem is, the tables above lack a crucial piece of data.

    In order to know how effective a delivery type truly is at preventing runners from trying, you must know the total number of times pitchers used each delivery type. I divided the total number of steal attempts per delivery type by the total number of times each type was used with runners on. As you can see below, not all delivery types are used the same amount.

     E) 2017-2022 

    Delivery Type Total # of Steal Attempts # of Times Used

    (Runners On)

    		 Effectiveness
    Full Leg Kick 10,370 525,310 2%
    In-Between 3,557 182,118 2%
    Slide Step 715 56,470 1.3%

    As the table reads, runners are just as likely to take off on an in-between delivery as they are on a full leg kick – 2% of the time. This is a little surprising because runners are thrown out significantly more on in-between deliveries than full leg kicks. Referring back to tables C and D, runners are thrown out 8% more of the time attempting to take 2nd and 5% more attempting to take 3rd. Perhaps in-between deliveries could be the sweet spot for baiting the runner into going then having the catcher throw him out.

    Less surprising is the 0.7% drop when a slide step is used. The purpose of a slide step is to speed up the delivery and it’s not exactly hard for runners to notice.

    I want to acknowledge that expecting every pitcher to start changing their delivery type is ridiculous. Pitchers use leg kicks for many different reasons including rhythm, timing, and getting their momentum towards the plate. Some pitchers will be able to adapt, many will not. Ultimately, a pitcher’s main focus should be pitch quality. But the information above is worth knowing nonetheless so that we can better understand what we’re seeing.

  • Stat of the Week: Defense, The NL Cy Young Race, and Blake Snell

    Stat of the Week: Defense, The NL Cy Young Race, and Blake Snell

    On May 19, Padres starter Blake Snell got clubbed for 6 runs in 4 innings in a loss to the Red Sox. His season ERA at that point was 5.40.

    But from that point forward, Snell has had the most remarkable run of pitching in 2023. He has a 1.31 ERA in his last 19 starts with nearly 2.5 times more strikeouts (153) as hits allowed (62) in that span.

    Snell’s season ERA is currently an MLB-best 2.50. This is remarkable given that he’s walked 89 batters, the most in the NL. That’s more than 5 walks per 9 innings, a rate that ranks 4th-highest in MLB.

    Snell’s ERA is an outlier among those with the most walks per 9 innings. His walks per 9 are an outlier among the pitchers with the lowest ERAs in MLB.

    So with all these crazy numbers floating around, where does Snell fit within the context of the NL Cy Young race, compared to pitchers like Justin Steele of the Cubs and Spencer Strider of the Braves?

    A Twitter follower presumably looking to answer that or a similar question asked us how much defensive support the different Cy Young contenders have received this season.

    The easiest way for us to answer that is to look at Defensive Runs Saved on batted balls by a team in support of a pitcher, something we did earlier this season in this article.

    Pitchers Receiving Most Defensive Support From Teams – 2023

    Name Team DRS
    José Berrios Blue Jays 16
    Blake Snell Padres 15
    Corbin Burnes Brewers 13
    Yusei Kikuchi Blue Jays 13
    Framber Valdez Astros 12
    Dean Kremer Orioles 12

    Snell and the Padres show up prominently on the leaderboard. That makes sense. In order to have an ERA that good with the walk rate that high, a pitcher is going to need help in some form.

    And now let’s look at this using the Top 5 NL Cy Young candidates as established by Tom Tango’s Cy Young Predictor tool (now available on FanGraphs).

    Pitchers Receiving Most Defensive Support From Teams

    Cy Young Candidates- 2023

    Name Team DRS
    Blake Snell Padres 15
    Zac Gallen Diamondbacks 5
    Justin Steele Cubs 2
    Spencer Strider Braves 1
    Zack Wheeler Phillies -1

    Admittedly if we considered other areas of defense, such as keeping runners from stealing, the Defensive Runs Saved numbers behind Snell would go down a bit. Snell has allowed 20 stolen bases in 21 attempts. But he would still be well ahead of any other serious Cy Young contender. The work of the Padres defense has been an important part in Snell’s ERA being the best in the game.

    So if Snell does win the Cy Young Award, we’d recommend him giving some complimentary gifts to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts, and others. As good as Snell’s been on the mound, they’ve been just as good for him.

  • August’s Defensive Players of the Month

    August’s Defensive Players of the Month

    This month the SIS/Fielding Bible Awards Defensive Player of the Month goes to two players who demonstrated defensive dominance in August: Phillies center fielder Johan Rojas and Pirates 3rd baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.

    Rojas is getting it done at a premium position for a Phillies team that can use the defensive help. He saved 11 runs in August, the most of any player, and has 12 Defensive Runs Saved for the season. He ranks tied for 3rd in Runs Saved by a center fielder despite ranking 44th among them in innings played. Rojas was also the runaway leader in Runs Saved by a minor league center fielder with 15.

    Rojas also covers ground better than most. He ranks 5th in MLB’s Jumps stat, covering nearly 3 feet more than the average outfielder within the first 3 seconds of batted-ball contact. He ranks 3rd in the Statcast metric “Burst” – covering more ground than the average outfielder when the ball has been in the air from 1.5 to 3 seconds.

    Additionally, Rojas has a strong arm, one that has averaged about 92 MPH on the top 10% of his throws. That ranks Top 5 among center fielders this season. Also impressive is that he’s minimized his mistakes. He had only 1 Error and no Defensive Misplays the entire month.

    Rojas’ 11 Runs Saved for the month easily topped the next-closest center fielder. Daulton Varsho (6) of the Blue Jays was the only other player with more than 5 Runs Saved there in August.

    Hayes also easily led his position with 9 Runs Saved in August. The next-closest third baseman for the month was Austin Riley of the Braves with 5 Runs Saved.

    Hayes is a two-time winner of the award this season, having also taken the honor in April. This month marked a triumphant return from the lower back injury that caused him to miss all but one game in July. Hayes now has 20 Runs Saved this season and reclaimed the seasonal lead in Runs Saved at third base from Ryan McMahon of the Rockies, who has 17. No one else has more than 10 Runs Saved at that position this season. By the way, Hayes also hit .320 with 6 home runs, 20 RBI, and a .956 OPS in August.

    Other players under consideration for the award this month included Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan and second baseman Andrés Giménez, and Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Each led his respective position in Runs Saved for the month.

    A reminder that Sports Info Solutions will announce the winners of The 2023 Fielding Bible Awards in late October. A panel of voters selects the top defensive player at each position, along with a multi-position honoree. This will be our 18th consecutive year presenting this honor.

  • Dodgers Doing It On Defense Again

    Dodgers Doing It On Defense Again

    On June 18 the Dodgers lost to the Giants, 7-3, completing a three-game Giants’ sweep in which the Dodgers were outscored 29-8 and gave up at least 7 runs in every game.

    Each of the last 2 games featured an array of misplays and errors. There were offline or wasted throws, missed line drives, bobbled ground balls, and multiple failures to catch throws.

    At that point in the season the Dodgers were a not-very-Dodgers like 39-33.

    Since that day, the Dodgers have looked a lot more like the Dodgers you thought you knew, going 44-16. And they’ve had something of a defensive reset.

    The Dodgers totaled -5 Defensive Runs Saved and ranked 21st in that stat at the All-Star Break. But since the Break, they rank No. 1 with 43 Runs Saved. They’re now 4th overall.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – 2023 Season

    Team Runs Saved
    Blue Jays 72
    Brewers 50
    Padres 41
    Dodgers 38
    Rays 34

     

    What’s been so good about the Dodgers defense this season?

    Left Side of the Infield

    When the Dodgers traded for Miguel Rojas in January, they knew they were getting a top defensive player. And though Rojas hasn’t hit, he’s more than met defensive expectations with plays like this one. He ranks 4th among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved with 11 and he has the most Runs Saved of any Dodgers player since their hot streak started on June 20 with 7.

    Additionally since returning from injury on June 27, Max Muncy has looked more like the third baseman he was in 2022 when he saved seven runs in a little more than a half-season’s worth of games. He’s saved 4 runs there since his return. He was at -2 at third base prior to that.

    Mookie

    Mookie Betts isn’t going to win a Fielding Bible Award in right field this season but he’s in-play for our multi-position honor.

    In 2023 Betts has split time between right field, second base and shortstop. He’s handled second base particularly well, netting 6 Runs Saved in 50 games. And keep in mind that he was replacing Miguel Vargas, who was at -3 Runs Saved there.

    The Outfield

    The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball at turning balls hit in the air into outs. Among a crowded field of teams they rank in the Top 5 in that stat both overall and specific to balls hit to the outfield.

    Through June 18, they ranked 11th in an efficiency stat that measures their catch rate (how often they’ve caught balls). Since then, they’re No. 2 in MLB and they’ve increased their out rate by more than 4 percentage points.

    An increase of that much on the roughly 800 balls hit in the air represents about 34 more catches than they would have made if they were performing at their pre-June 20 level.

    Out Rate on Balls Hit In the Air

    Through June 18 Through June 20
    Out Rate 66.6% 70.9%
    Out Rate (Balls Hit to OF) 59.6% 64.0%

     

    With Betts being shuffled between right field and the infield, the success of the Dodgers outfield defense this season is more of a collective effort than one player carrying the load. For example, three-time Fielding Bible Award winner Jason Heyward has saved 4 runs in 68 games in right field (though he’s -2 in a brief amount of time in center. Another past Fielding Bible winner David Peralta has manned left field without issue, saving 4 runs.

    And more recently, James Outman has lived up to his last name. He has 3 Runs Saved playing center field exclusively in August. He was -3 there prior to that.

    Putting Players In The Right Place

    When we say collective effort, that includes the team’s coaching staff too. Our Defensive Runs Saved splits up credit between a player’s skill and how well or poorly he’s positioned.

    The Dodgers have 21 Positioning Runs Saved combining the team’s infield and outfield alignments. Here are a couple of instances (here and here)in which the team got significant positioning credit for putting their fielders in position to best use their skills.

    Catcher

    What Will Smith has done the last three years with both his bat and his glove is impressive. Smith is in line for his 3rd straight season with an OPS+ of 120 and at least 5 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate.

    Smith currently ranks tied for 5th among catchers with 8 Runs Saved (which would be his best season total yet) helped by above-average pitch-framing stats. The Dodgers are 58-29 when he starts at catcher, 25-20 when he doesn’t

    A Tale of 2 Pitchers

    Just like the Dodgers knew what they were getting in Miguel Rojas, they knew what they were getting in Noah Syndergaard. And when they traded Syndergaard, who has never been able to thwart a running game, they got rid of a pitcher who was bringing down the team’s Runs Saved total. He was at -4 for them. They’ve also since dealt oft-used reliever Phil Bickford and his -3.

    But one guy who hasn’t gone anywhere is Clayton Kershaw, who has 4 Runs Saved, giving him potentially his best defensive season since 2015.

    In Sum

    Give the Dodgers credit for consistency. Presuming these numbers hold up, they’ll rank in the Top 10 in Defensive Runs Saved for the 8th straight season. They’ve ranked in the Top 6 in 6 of the last 7 years. Defensive excellence continues to be a staple for them year-in and year-out. This year, it just took them a little while to get to that point.

  • Stat of the Week: Rookies Making Big Defensive Impacts For Contenders

    Stat of the Week: Rookies Making Big Defensive Impacts For Contenders

    Have you gotten to see the Phillies rookie center fielder Johan Rojas since his recall about a month ago?

    He’s been something to watch from Day 1.

    Rojas was the runaway leader in Defensive Runs Saved in center field in the minor leagues. And he’s racing up that leaderboard even after just 30 games in the major leagues. He’s already saved 10 runs and is within striking distance of the MLB leaders in Runs Saved in center field, Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, who each have 13 for the Blue Jays.

    Player Team Runs Saved
    Kevin Kiermaier Blue Jays 13
    Daulton Varsho Blue Jays 13
    Johan Rojas Phillies 10
    Brenton Doyle Rockies 10
    Kyle Isbel Royals 10

    Rojas is a potential gamechanger for a Phillies team that has struggled defensively the last few seasons. The Phillies had -24 Runs Saved at the All-Star Break but have actually increased that total by 5 runs since then.

    But Rojas isn’t the only rookie to make a prominent impact defensively for a postseason contender.

    We’ve brought up a few in some of the articles we’ve written. Here’s a list of those who have been the most impressive for potential playoff teams.

    Giants catcher Patrick Bailey leads everyone at that position with 15 Runs Saved. He’s been great at both pitch framing and controlling the running game. He will be a strong contender for a Fielding Bible Award.

    Another catcher, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, has forced Houston’s hand a little bit, as his 4 Runs Saved are considerably better than pitching staff favorite Martín Maldonado’s -10.

    We just wrote about Mariners infielder José Caballero and outfielder Cade Marlowe in an article for our website this week. Caballero has 9 Runs Saved, most of anyone on the team. Marlowe has excelled for the Mariners, contributing 7 Runs Saved to an outfield that ranks 4th in the majors in that stat.

    There’s also Orioles infielders Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg. Henderson, barely rookie eligible after getting a long look last season, has 7 Runs Saved at shortstop and 2 at third base. Westburg has 6 Runs Saved at second base (and -2 at third base) since his recall two months ago.

    The NL Central is loaded with talented rookie fielders. The Brewers have Joey Wiemer and Brice Turang, as well as our June Defensive Player of the Month winner, Blake Perkins. Between the 3 of them, they have 23 of the Brewers’ 46 Runs Saved. Turang ranks tied for 5th at 2nd base with 8 Runs Saved. Perkins, out with an oblique injury, has played even less than Rojas but ranks tied for 4th among right fielders with 7 Runs Saved. Overall, the Brewers rank second to the Blue Jays in Runs Saved this season.

    And yes the Reds have Elly De La Cruz, but their best defender may be Matt McLain, who has split time between shortstop and second base and handled both without issue. He’s tied for the team lead with T.J. Friedl with 5 Runs Saved.

    There are some big moments ahead for these players in the next 5 weeks. They’ve played like seasoned veterans so far but their biggest tests have yet to come.

  • The Transformation of Kodai Senga

    The Transformation of Kodai Senga

    Photo by Wilfred Perez/Icon Sportswire

    Kodai Senga has come to Major League Baseball and immediately cemented himself as a top of the rotation pitcher. In his first season in MLB Senga has put up the 12th-lowest ERA among qualified pitchers with a 3.19. He’s also totaled the 9th highest K% (28%) and the 15th best swinging strike rate (12.5%).

    It’s worth mentioning that Senga is doing this with a baseball completely different from what he was used to. MLB baseballs are slightly bigger and less tacky compared to NPB baseballs. 

    Senga had a 4.14 ERA in his first 7 starts. But in his 8th start, May 17 vs the Rays, it seems like things clicked for him. In that start Senga went 6 innings, struck out 12 and allowed only 1 earned run. There’s been notable differences in how Senga has used all of his pitches since that game. The results have been there. He’s dropped his season ERA by nearly a full point.

    Brandon Tew and I wanted to see how much he’s changed from last season in Japan. Brandon will touch on how he worked in Japan in 2022 and I will dive into Senga this season. If you want a more in-depth look at Senga in NPB you can read it here.

    4-seam fastball

    NPB: Senga was reliant on early-count fastballs to get ahead of hitters early. This would bite him every now and then as he gave up 4 HRs off the fastball. The threat of getting beaten on a badly-located fastball was still minimal so it didn’t stop him from using it.

    MLB: Senga’s 4-seam is still his most used pitch but the usage continues to decline. This is mostly because the shape of it isn’t great. It has just above-average ride so he struggles to get swings and misses (a 16.7% whiff rate). 

    Senga doesn’t even rank in the Top 200 in fastball induced vertical break (iVB) with an iVB of 16.4 inches, not far above the league average of 15.7. For reference, the best iVB is Felix Bautista with 20.5 inches. Basically, Senga’s fastball doesn’t have much deception compared to others.

    Hitters aren’t necessarily crushing his fastball relative to other pitchers. they have a .267 avg, .424 slug with 6 home runs (MLB average fastball numbers are .270 and .448). The problem for Senga was the counts in which he has used the fastball. He was using the fastball in the “traditional” fastball counts, so hitters were ready for it. 

    Here’s a graphic from Baseball Savant showing Senga’s usage by count in his first 7 starts. He was using the 4-seamer earlier in counts, similar to when he used it in Japan. Now he’s started to use the cutter early in counts and save the fastball for late in the ABs. With 2 strikes the fastball usage has gone from 28% to 37%.

    The splits this season for the fastball when the batter is ahead vs when the batter is behind show decisively different numbers, particularly with his whiff rate.

     Batter ahead: .288 avg .441 slg 8% whiff

     Batter behind: .234 avg .404 slg 24% whiff

    Using the fastball late in counts is super effective because of the way it tunnels with his forkball. Because his forkball is so nasty, hitters have to be ready for it late in counts. Senga uses this to his advantage and surprises them with his fastball. 

    Cutter

    NPB: Senga mainly attacked the best hitters in NPB with his cutter. He threw it mainly inside to LHBs but he would throw the pitch to different quadrants. Including down and away from RHBs or backdooring it to lefties. 

    MLB: Senga’s cutter has become not just his most important pitch, but one of the best pitches in all of baseball. The cutter has totaled a 17 Run Value, the highest for a cutter, and 10th-best for any pitch in baseball. 

    In 127 ABs ending with one, hitters have only a .205 avg and .268 slg. He generates a 51% ground ball rate against it. His ability to make it move late and get just under the barrel makes it difficult for hitters to square up. 

    Similar to when he was in NPB, he will throw it anywhere, but he can change the shape of it too. Sometimes it cuts, sometimes it goes straight down, and sometimes he can make it move arm side. 

    This usage by count breakdown shows his usages since the May 11 start. His cutter usage has seen a big increase in counts where the hitter has the advantage. In the first 7 starts, he used it 34% when he was behind in the count, it’s up to 51% since.

    Forkball

    NPB: The forkball was Senga’s best weapon. He threw it more than any other pitch in 2-strike counts and over half his strikeouts came with it. The pitch would consistently fool hitters because they had to gear up for his fastball.

    MLB: Senga’s forkball is one of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball. For pitch types with at least 100 plate appearances here are some ranks for Senga’s forkball:

     .128 avg (7th-lowest)            

     .152 slg (2nd-lowest)                 

     58.6% whiff (1st)            

     55.9% K (2nd)

    The tunnel effect he gets on the forkball and 4-seamer make it incredibly difficult for hitters to pick up on. Senga’s average vertical break on the forkball is 37.5 inches. 

    The key is that it stays on the same plane as the fastball for such a long time then drops off a cliff. Here’s an example in video form from Pitching Ninja.

    Not only is Senga’s tunneling with his forkball and fastball elite but the velocity differential between the 2 pitches is one of the best in baseball (compared to other pitchers’ splitter/fastball differential). Senga gets a 12.4 mph difference between the 2 pitches, 2nd-best to only Fernando Cruz who gets 12.8 mph.

    Curveball

    NPB: Senga had two different curveballs, a 12-6 curve (mid 70s MPH) and one that was slurvy (low 80s mph). He had trouble keeping the shape consistent with both of them. He struggled to use the pitches effectively because of that but the change of speed helped keep hitters off balance. 

    MLB: Senga has separated his two curveballs since coming to MLB. His curveball this season is 12-6 with big drop and thrown super slow (73 MPH). 

    He uses it to surprise hitters and steal strikes a few times a game. He’s thrown 61 CBs, 49 of them have been first pitches of ABs. 

    Sweeper 

    MLB: We think the slurvy variation of Senga’s curveball in Japan is what is being classified as his sweeper. 

    His sweeper has a lot of drop and not much sweep. Compared to other sweepers thrown at similar velocity (81 MPH) and release height to Senga’s, he gets 4 inches more drop and 2.1 inches less sweep.

    The sweeper has been his worst pitch. Hitters are 7 for 21 with a .952 slug, including 4 homeruns. The break of the sweeper is pretty lazy and thus easy for hitters to track.

    Slider

    NPB: Senga’s slider was always a work in progress. He spun it well but was never consistent. He only used it to give hitters a different look, it wasn’t a main part of his plan.

    MLB: The slider he began throwing as an alternative to the sweeper has been effective. Hitters are only 5-for-25, with all the hits being singles. It’s a gyro slider with high spin and sharp break. He’s done a great job of picking certain hitters and spots to use it in.

    Summation

    These 12 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks on July 5 show how difficult Senga can be to face with his repertoire. Bad swings on forkballs, fastballs taken down the middle, plus some help from the pitch clock. 

    Senga’s already put his name into the Rookie of the Year conversation. As he continues to evolve, he could become the favorite after a few more starts.

  • It’s Not Just The Hitting and The Pitching For The Mariners

    It’s Not Just The Hitting and The Pitching For The Mariners

    The Mariners are rolling.

    They’ve scored 55 runs in their current seven-game winning streak. Julio Rodríguez has been impossible to get out and that’s rubbed off on his teammates.

    So of course, we want to talk about their defense.

    The Mariners rank 9th in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved. So it’s not just the hitting that explains why they’re 15 games over .500.

    The key to their ranking is the performance of their outfield. The Mariners outfield ranks 4th in Defensive Runs Saved. The team has a 61.8% out rate on balls hit to the outfield, 2nd-highest in MLB.

    Here are the top defensive outfields in MLB.

    Team Runs Saved
    Blue Jays 45
    Padres  25
    Guardians 23
    Mariners 22

    By our measures, Seattle doesn’t necessarily have anyone who’s going to blow you away save for small-sample size superstar Cade Marlowe, whose strong Statcast “burst” numbers have allowed him to make up for slow reactions to the ball off the bat. 

    Marlowe made the catch in the tweet above filling in for Rodríguez in center field last night. He’s spent most of his time since his recall in left field, where he has 7 Runs Saved, including a couple of assists, like this one on which he played spoiler for another player’s memorable moment. 

    The Mariners have done well with whoever they’ve put in left field. Jarred Kelenic and A.J. Pollock have also combined for 5 Runs Saved there.

    But more than anything, the Mariners outfield is good because the team doesn’t play anyone who is bad. All but 73 innings this season have been played by an outfielder who totaled a non-negative number of Runs Saved.

    Go figure that Teoscar Hernández has been an unexpected positive contributor in right field. He’s never finished a season with a positive Runs Saved total there but has 4 Runs Saved. 

    The Mariners play him deep – at an average depth of 297 feet at T Mobile Park, an average of about 7 feet deeper than they played their right fielder last season.

    Hernández had a strong first month, with 5 Runs Saved at the end of April. He’s leveled off since then but his season numbers are still alright. 

    Depending on your metric of choice, Rodríguez is either having a great defensive season (Baseball Savant’s Runs Prevented) or one that’s a little above-average (Defensive Runs Saved). The metrics agree that he’s good but differ on the degree, which happens sometimes. In this case, there’s an explanation. Our Defensive Runs Saved separates out the value a team accrues from properly positioning him. Rodriguez, Steven Kwan, and George Springer have each netted 6 Positioning Runs Saved for their teams, the most for any outfielder in MLB this season.

    Rodríguez is another player who can make up ground with a burst once the ball has been in the air for 1.5 seconds and that’s led to a bunch of dazzling catches. 

     

    The other player who has given this team a defensive boost is a surprising one. The Mariners were projected to open the season with a pair of Gold Glovers in second baseman Kolten Wong and shortstop J.P. Crawford. But the team’s best defensive infielder by Runs Saved has actually been utility man José Caballero. The soon-to-turn 27-year-old rookie has 9 Runs Saved split primarily between the two middle infield positions.

    The Mariners aren’t a perfect defensive team. The numbers from their corner infielders, particularly Ty France and Eugenio Suarez aren’t great (though they’ve put up good numbers at first and third in the past), their primary catcher Cal Raleigh hasn’t quite replicated what he did last season when he ranked 3rd among catchers in Runs Saved, and J.P Crawford hasn’t matched where he was in 2020 and 2021.

    But right now there’s enough there both at the plate, on the mound, and in the field to make up for that.

     

  • Stat of the Week:  The Surprise Defensive Runs Saved Leader

    Stat of the Week:  The Surprise Defensive Runs Saved Leader

    Photos: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire

    Whenever I share the list of Defensive Runs Saved leaders by position, there’s one name that always elicits a strong reaction.

    People are surprised that not only is Carlos Santana of the Brewers the leading first baseman, he’s the leading first baseman by a healthy margin.  He has 9 Runs Saved, well ahead of Christian Walker (5 Runs Saved), Matt Olson (4), Anthony Rizzo (3), and Paul Goldschmidt (2), who have combined to win the last 8 Fielding Bible Awards. Santana has never won one.

    Santana doesn’t exactly look the part. His body type would best be described as “stout.” He’s listed at 5-foot-11, 210 pounds, and at that height he’s one of the shortest first basemen in MLB. At 37 years old, he’s also one of the oldest, which might make you think that his ideal position is DH.

    But Santana has played a good first base in the past. This will be his 4th consecutive season with positive Runs Saved there. Since a rough 2015 in which he cost his team 11 runs with his defense, Santana has had positive Runs Saved in every season but one, peaking at 8 in 2017. He ranks 4th in Defensive Runs Saved by a first baseman over the last 3 seasons.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved, 1B Since 2021

    Name Runs Saved
    Christian Walker 26
    Matt Olson 16
    Lewin Díaz 14
    Carlos Santana 13
    Paul Goldschmidt 13

    How Is He Doing It?

    So what’s driving Santana’s success?

    Amassing Runs Saved at first base largely comes down to how well you field balls and finish plays more than how you handle throws (being well positioned isn’t part of the calculation). It might surprise you: Santana is pretty good at fielding and finishing.

    Santana rates 13 Plays Saved better than the average first baseman (Plays Saved is similar conceptually to Statcast’s Outs Above Average). If you go to The Fielding Bible website, you’ll see that he’s an MLB-best 7 plays better than average on balls hit to his right, 4 plays better on balls hit to his left, and 2 plays better on balls hit at him.

    So how is Santana getting to all of these balls?

    In addition to charting batted ball locations and speeds, SIS also denotes what we call elements of descriptive defense, such as: Did the fielder slide, dive, or jump to make the play?

    Santana is playing 2023 all-out. He leads all players with 29 plays made via slides, dives, and jumps this season (click the hyperlinks to see examples).

    2023:      29 Diving, Sliding, Jumping plays in 852 innings

    2021-22: 28 Diving, Sliding, Jumping Plays in 1,822 innings

    He leads all first basemen with 53 such attempts. But his efforts are not wasted.

    Carlos Santana in 2023

    Type Plays Made-Attempts Success Rate (MLB avg)
    Dives 15-28 54% (37%)
    Slides 8-11 73% (71%)
    Jumps 6-14 43% (39%)

    Santana is succeeding at an average or better rate in sliding, diving, and jumping. Of his top 6 defensive plays made this season by Runs Saved value, 5 of them involved Santana diving, sliding, or jumping either to extend his range or to make sure he’d successfully corralled the ball.

    Santana got off to a slow start after being traded by the Pirates to the Brewers but Craig Counsell continues to play him. The Brewers have been rewarded twice this week with home runs. They’ve also gotten good defense. In 16 games with the Brewers, Santana has 3 Runs Saved.

  • Going Deep: Blue Jays CFs On Run-Saving Tear

    Going Deep: Blue Jays CFs On Run-Saving Tear

    The Blue Jays currently have a huge lead on the Defensive Runs Saved leaderboard. They’re currently at 77 Runs Saved, 30 runs clear of the Brewers for the most in MLB.

    The Blue Jays have three positions in which they’ve excelled this season. One is catcher, where Alejandro Kirk ranks 2nd overall with 13 Runs Saved. Another is third base, where Matt Chapman ranks 3rd with 11.

    Then there is center field.

    The Blue Jays have accrued 26 Runs Saved in center field this season. The next-closest team is the Royals with 13, half of Toronto’s total.

    Teammates Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho are tied for the center field lead with 13 Runs Saved. In other words, the Blue Jays have two center fielders with more Runs Saved than all but one other MLB team. Varsho’s numbers are particularly impressive given that he’s played about half as many innings there as Kiermaier has. 

    How does something like this happen?

    Kiermaier and Varsho are both great at chasing fly balls. 

    Kiermaier ranks No. 1 in MLB’s jump stat, which analyzes how much ground each outfielder covers in the first 3 seconds that a batted ball is in the air. Varsho ranks 20th out of roughly 100 qualified outfielders.  

    That is most evident when we do a team-by-team comparison of how each team does at catching balls that our batted-ball evaluation system classifies as “deep.” Blue Jays center fielders are alright at catching balls classified as “shallow” and “medium.” 

    But they are elite at catching the deep ball, at taking away potential extra-base hits.

    There have been 133 balls hit against the Blue Jays this season that were classified as “deep” in which the center fielder had a >0 chance to make the catch.

    Based on the out probabilities of each of those balls, the center fielder was expected to catch 106 of them. Blue Jays center fielders beat that by 16. They caught 122, for a catch rate of nearly 92%. Going 122-for-133 on plays rather than 106-for-133 meant that they beat their expected out rate by 12 percentage points.

    Only one other team’s center fielders came close to that. The Phillies via Brandon Marsh and rookie standout Johan Rojas bested their expected catch rate by a little less than 9 percentage points.

    Individually, Kiermaier has converted 74-of-82 (90%), 10 catches above expectations. Varsho is 47-of-50 (94%), beating his expected catch total by 6.

    In sum, the Blue Jays totaled about 12.6 Runs Saved on deep balls this season. They almost outpaced every other team’s total Runs Saved with just their Runs Saved on deep balls.

    Here’s one other perspective on the 122 out of 133 that shows the gap between the Blue Jays and an average team.

    Deep Balls Made Plays Missed Plays
    Blue Jays CF 122 11
    Average of Other Teams 99 27

    This is not the only area in which Blue Jays center fielders rate as best in MLB. They’re also tops in Outfield Arm Runs Saved, which combines a fielder’s success at holding runners on base hits and potential sacrifice flies with how often they’ve thrown a runner out without the help of a relay man. Toronto has 5 Outfield Arm Runs Saved thanks to throws like these.

     

    But it is the deep-ball differentiation that most separates them from the rest of the sport.

    Lastly, to put the Blue Jays’ center field success into historical perspective, their combined 26 Runs Saved rank 8th most since DRS was first tracked in 2003. The 2015 Rays set the standard for positional excellence with 37 Runs Saved. That team had a familiar center fielder, none other than a younger Kiermaier.