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  • How Each Postseason Contender Could Build Their Rosters for October

    By Corey Eiferman

    *All stats are as of September 23rd

    With the Major League Baseball postseason just a few days away, discussions are being held on which players should be on postseason rosters. Several times per postseason, you’ll hear a player say how it “takes 25 guys” to win one round, and hopefully, subsequent rounds of postseason. I aimed to try to use both recent history of the rosters of pennant winning teams, and the performance of the players of each team this year, to try to generate a hybrid of both a prediction and a suggestion of the rosters should look like.

    While teams will shuffle guys on and off their rosters between rounds, 50% of the last ten pennant winners carried 12 pitchers and 13 position players in the LCS and World Series. However, three of the last five World Series winners, the 2018 Red Sox, the 2016 Cubs, and 2015 Royals, carried 11 pitchers and 14 position players, showing that there is never an exact template, and there’s no right answer.

    The Red Sox didn’t shuffle their roster between rounds in 2018. The Cubs and Royals switched out one position player for another before the World Series. Both were notable cases- in 2016 Kyle Schwarber famously battled back from ACL surgery in April to hit .412 for the Cubs in the World Series. The Royals added Adalberto Mondesi in 2015. He became the first player to play in the modern-day World Series before his regular-season debut.

    I also looked at trends within the rosters of recent pennant winners. None of the last six pennant winners carried traditional Pinch Runners and Pinch Hitters, opting instead for players like Marwin Gonzalez, who embodied the evolution of the classic utility infielders into super-utility players.

    I looked at the teams that have clinched a spot as of Thursday. As an aside, all rosters are composed with the caveat that the team has hypothetically won their Division or their League’s Wild Card Game, and these are for the Divisional and Championship Series.:

    *denotes potential platoon

    New York Yankees

    Starting Pitchers, including “Piggyback” Tandems: James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino + J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia + Jonathan Loaisiga

    Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton, Chad Green, Luis Cessa,

    Lineup: C-Gary Sanchez, 1B-Edwin Encarnacion, 2B-D.J. LeMahieu, SS-Gleyber Torres, 3B- Gio Urshela, LF- Giancarlo Stanton, CF- Brett Gardner, RF- Aaron Judge, DH- Luke Voit

    Bench: Austin Romine, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Wade, Cameron Maybin

    Key decisions: Tandem starters; What to do with Didi Gregorius

    On September 17, a story by Tom Verducci for Sports Illustrated quoted Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone as saying he might use tandem starters or “piggyback” strategy in the playoffs, similar to how the 2017 Astros piggybacked Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr in Games 7 of both the 2017 ALCS and World Series.

    After Boone named offseason acquisition James Paxton as the only one who would make a traditional start in the playoffs, Masahiro Tanaka bounced back with his best start since August 27, in the Yankees’ AL East clinching game, possibly causing Boone to alter his plans again. Look for none of the quartet of Luis Severino, who is battling back from both a rotator cuff injury and a lat strain, Jonathan Loaisiga, recovering from a shoulder strain, and veterans CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, to face more than 18 batters by design, as Boone navigates through the playoffs.

    Boone said he would carry six “key” relievers on top of his starters and piggybackers. The Yankees still possess a bullpen that could arguably be more intimidating than the mid-2010s Royals. The trio of closer Aroldis Chapman, Set-up Man Zack Britton, and 7th-inning man Tommy Kahnle all have accumulated more than 1.2 Win Probability Added.

    The Yankees are the only team to have nine players with an OPS+ of 110 this season (minimum 200 plate appearances). Their best offensive lineup would be one without Didi Gregorius starting. Gio Urshela has has been a revelation. Gregorius could come in for defense late in games, and the Yankees could shift LeMahieu over to first, and Torres over to second, while also subbing in the veteran Cameron Maybin for Giancarlo Stanton.

    Minnesota Twins

    Starting Pitchers: José Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson

    Bullpen: Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Brusdar Graterol, Ryne Harper, Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Devin Smeltzer

    Lineup: C- Mitch Garver, 1B- C.J. Cron, 2B- Jonathan Schoop, SS- Jorge Polanco, 3B- Miguel Sano, LF- Eddie Rosario, CF- Max Kepler, RF- Marwin Gonzalez, DH- Nelson Cruz

    Bench: Jason Castro, Willians Astudillo, Luis Arraez, Ehire Adrianza

    Key decision: Bullpen composition

    Much has been written about the Twins’ offense, the team that might have most benefited from the possibly, allegedly, juiced balls. They are the first team with five players with 30 home runs, with Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver.

    In Garver’s surprising breakout, the Twins catcher’s barrel percentage went up 10 percentage points, his average exit velocity is up 2 MPH runs, and he snatched the starting job away from Jason Castro.

    Speaking of catchers (sort of) Willians Astudillo has played at least games at every position except pitcher, shortstop, and center field, and with injuries to Ehire Adrianza and Max Kepler, should bring that unique versatility to the roster.

    Going into the postseason, if you find a hot hand, you ride that hot hand. The Twins should make sure their postseason roster has a spot for Brusdar Graterol, who, as laid out by Baseball Prospectus’ Aaron Gleeman, only needed to throw one pitch to become the hardest throwing pitcher in Twins history. Graterol has hit 100 MPH in seven of his eight appearances since being called up in September.

    After struggling in his first-full season as a starter in 2016, Tyler Duffey’s been able to transition to being a reliever, with a curveball that could register anywhere between 70 and 88 mph. Left-handed Swingman Devin Smeltzer has reverse splits, limiting righties to a .721 OPS, with lefties at .869, so the Twins could carry two non-lefty specialists alongside closer Taylor Rogers. The inverse of Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak is a right-hander with reverse splits, and has pitched well whether he’s been an opener, long man, or a starter in just 22 1/3 innings.

    Houston Astros

    Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke

    Bullpen: Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Josh James, Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith, Framber Valdez

    Lineup: C- Robinson Chirinos, 1B- Yuli Gurriel, 2B- Jose Altuve, SS- Carlos Correa, 3B- Alex Bregman, LF- Michael Brantley, CF- George Springer, RF- Josh Reddick, DH- Yordan Alvarez

    Bench: Martin Maldonado, Aledmys Diaz, Jake Marisnick, Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw

    Key decisions: 3 starters or 4? Myles Straw’s role

    The 2009 Yankees were the only team in the modern-divisional era to win a World Series with just three Starting Pitchers. Following a September in which Wade Miley lasted, zero, one-third, and one inning in starts, the Astros might try to replicate that with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke. If that trio, containing two Cy Young winners and a pitcher drafted No. 1 overall, all pitch to their talent level, the Astros are very likely to hoist their second World Series trophy in three years, with more ease than those 2009 Yankees.

    If the Astros do go with three starters, they will still need some key outs from their bullpen. The 35-year-old sidearmer Joe Smith is in his 13th Major League Season. He has never had an ERA over 4.00, and has a 1.16 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 23 1/3 innings pitched this year, while battling back from Achilles surgery. Smith’s 54% ground ball rate (albeit in a small sample) is his highest since 2014, when he was with the Angels the year they snuck past the Athletics to win the AL West.

    Myles Straw could emerge as the next Kiké Hernandez or Chris Taylor, having saved one run at shortstop, center field, and left field this year. Kyle Tucker’s hot September may be forgotten amidst the otherworldly rookie season of Yordan Alvarez, but the outfielder has hit over .300 and slugged over .500 since his first start in right field in September.

    Atlanta Braves

    Starting Pitchers: Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Dallas Keuchel, Julio Teheran

    Bullpen: Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Chris Martin, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Josh Tomlin, Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz

    Lineup: C*- Brian McCann/Tyler Flowers, 1B- Freddie Freeman, 2B- Ozzie Albies, SS- Dansby Swanson, 3B- Josh Donaldson, LF- Austin Riley, CF- Ronald Acuña, RF- Nick Markakis

    Bench: Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte, Matt Joyce, Billy Hamilton

    Key decisions: Using Billy Hamilton; putting starters in the bullpen

    The Braves are easily the team with the best chance of preventing the Dodgers from making their third straight trip to the World Series. Their starting lineup is remarkably deep, with a mix of young stars players still in their primes, and veterans. Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley are the first trio of players younger than 23 to each hit 15 home runs in a season.

    While a pennant winner hasn’t carried a player to strictly pinch run since the Royals in 2015, look for a player who began the year in Kansas City to do that for the Braves this year, Billy Hamilton. Even though his average sprint speed has dipped, he still ranks among the fastest 3% of players in that stat in baseball.

    The Braves will be armed with a better bullpen, at least on paper, than the Dodgers, after acquiring Chris Martin, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon at the deadline. The trio got off to a rough start, as through August 14 their combined ERA with the Braves was 11.15, but they’ve collectively righted the ship, with a combined 1.85 ERA since.

    The front-end of the Braves’ bullpen could feature two of the Braves postseason starters from last season. Both righty Mike Foltynewicz and lefty Sean Newcomb struggled in the beginning of 2019, but Foltynewicz has a 2.35 ERA in 8 starts since returning from Gwinnett, and Sean Newcomb has a 2.80 ERA since being moved to the bullpen in May, Newcomb’s Runs Above Average on his curveball has improved from -0.6 to 2.6 this year.

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright

    Bullpen: John Brebbia, Giovanny Gallegos, John Gant, Ryan Helsley, Carlos Martinez, Andrew Miller, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Tyler Webb

    Lineup: C-Yadier Molina, 1B- Paul Goldschmidt, 2B- Kolten Wong, SS- Paul DeJong, 3B- Matt Carpenter, LF- Marcell Ozuna, CF- Harrison Bader, RF- Dexter Fowler

    Bench: Matt Wieters, Tommy Edman, Yairo Muñoz, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Martinez

    Key decisions: Roles for Ryan Helsley and Tommy Edman

    The Cardinals’ quietly ascended from being five games back as late as June 12, to holding sole possession of first place in the NL Central from August 23rd on. The Cardinals playoff teams usually feature a midseason bullpen addition. But not in 2019.

    The quartet of Carlos Martinez, John Brebbia, John Gant, and Giovanny Gallegos is the only set of four relievers with ERAs under 3.50 in the NL, who spent all of 2019 with that same team. The trade that sent Luke Voit to the Yankees will not be looked at as catastrophic for the Cardinals, as Gallegos is second in the MLB in WHIP with 0.80, and his slider is second in Runs Above Average to the Reds’ Robert Stephenson.

    One hot hand for the Cardinals down the stretch has been reliever Ryan Helsley. The fifth-round pick from Northeastern State is this year’s Cardinal to come out of nowhere and help the big club. The 24-year-old has a 2.41 ERA in 21 appearances, and has hit 100 MPH on the radar gun in 14 of them. The versatile Tommy Edman has hit .317 since August 1 while seeing playing time at every position except first, shortstop, and catcher. He’s at second base now while Kolten Wong recovers from a hamstring injury. The Cardinals will need to figure out where Helsley and Edman fit best come October.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Starting Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill

    Bullpen: Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Adam Kolarek, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Julio Urias

    Starting Lineup: C-Will Smith, 1B- Max Muncy, 2B- Gavin Lux, SS- Corey Seager, 3B- Justin Turner, LF- A.J. Pollock, CF- Cody Bellinger, RF- Joc Pederson

    Bench: Russell Martin, David Freese, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Matt Beaty

    Key decision: Gavin Lux’s usage

    Right now, probably only Dave Roberts knows exactly how he’ll employ and move his players around, as in one game this year, he changed seven players positions before the top of the 10th, but top prospect Gavin Lux might have hit well enough to be inserted into the lineup at second base every game, à la Corey Seager in 2015. While Kiké Hernandez and Chris Taylor might be the two best super-utility men of the last few years, they will likely see fewer starts in years past, if Lux is entrenched as their second baseman, and with either Cody Bellinger or A.J. Pollock in center field.

    After hitting on numerous first round picks in recent years in Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, and Clayton Kershaw, a 12th-round pick has been another important rookie for the Dodgers’ offense. Matt Beaty, who has seen time at first, third, left, and right field, has slugged .479 in 253 plate appearances.

    In the end, the question will be whether the bridge to Kenley Jansen is sturdy enough to put the Dodgers over the top. Over the years, it seems like the Dodgers always have plenty of relievers who are well-above average in the regular season, but just can’t get it done in the most important moments in the postseason. This year, two frequently-used relievers, Pedro Baez and Yimi Garcia, still have worrisome peripherals. Baez’ opponents’ swing percentage is at a career low 51%, and Garcia has a drastic separation between his ERA, which is sub 3.50, and his FIP, which is above 5.00, the only reliever with that distinguishable a separation.

    Washington Nationals
    Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez
    Bullpen: Sean Doolittle, Erick Fedde, Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, Fernando Rodney, Hunter Strickland, Wander Suero
    Lineup: C- Yan Gomes, 1B- Howie Kendrick/Matt Adams/Ryan Zimmerman 2B*- Asdrubal Cabrera/Brian Dozier, SS- Trea Turner, 3B- Anthony Rendon, LF- Juan Soto, CF- Victor Robles, RF- Adam Eaton
    Bench: Kurt Suzuki, Michael A. Taylor, Gerardo Parra

    Key decisions: Bullpen composition and usage

    The last two times the Nationals were in the playoffs, in 2016, and 2017, they carried only 11 pitchers, which is something they can do again in 2019, simply because they don’t have 12 pitchers Davey Martinez should trust to get big outs in October. The Nationals are going to need their big three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin to all go deep into games.

    The Nationals, like the Braves, made three relief acquisitions, and they haven’t worked out quite as well. Daniel Hudson has been dependable, but Roenis Elias is out with a hamstring strain, while old foe Hunter Strickland has an 8.59 ERA in September, far from the perfect form he displayed when he was called up in September of 2014 by the Giants on their way to a World Series. Elsewhere in the bullpen, walks have been a problem for Tanner Rainey, but his fastball does rank in the top five in the Majors among relievers with a 97.9 average velocity.

    You may think veteran Howie Kendrick may lack the power you’d want from a prototypical first baseman, but he still possesses some sneaky power with a .237 ISO (Slugging Percentage – Batting Average), which ranks 13th among 38 players with 300 Plate Appearances and 40% of games played at first base. Kendrick is hitting .341 this season, and .421 since his return from injury on August 12th, which should get him most, if not all the starts at first over sluggers Matt Adams and Ryan Zimmerman. While Victor Robles’ defensive breakout has been everything the Nationals fans’ have wanted lest no one forget that Michael A. Taylor is coming off two seasons where he collectively saved 18 runs, and is a perfect fourth outfielder for the playoffs.

    Milwaukee Brewers
    Pitching Staff: Matt Albers, Chase Anderson, Ray Black, Alex Claudio, Kyle Davies, Gio Gonzalez, Junior Guerra, Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Brandon Woodruff
    Lineup: C- Yasmani Grandal, 1B- Eric Thames, 2B- Keston Huira, SS- Orlando Arcia, 3B- Mike Moustakas, LF- Ryan Braun, CF- Lorenzo Cain, RF- Trent Grisham
    Bench: Manny Piña, Travis Shaw, Hernan Perez, Ben Gamel, Tyler Austin

    Key decisions: Use an opener?

    Everyone counted out the Milwaukee Brewers when they lost reigning NL MVP, Christian Yelich. Somehow, the Brewers went on a huge run in September. The run has drawn comparison to their late-September run to the NL Wild Card in 2008, led by the aforementioned, and soon-to-be-retiring CC Sabathia.

    First round pick Trent Grisham has filled in nicely for Yelich, hitting .265/.409/.529 since the rightfielder was injured. Tyler Austin, who was in the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup in 2018, is with his fourth team since, and has two big go-ahead RBIs this month.

    The Brewers might get as creative as they did last year, when they took on a postseason version of the Rays’ Opener strategy, including duping the entire baseball world when they used started Wade Miley as an opener. Jordan Lyles has become for the Brewers’ what Kelly Johnson was for the Mets, being acquired mid-season for the second straight year. The swingman has only started for the Brewers this year, after only relieving for them last year. Over the past two seasons, Lyles has a combined 4.86 ERA with the two teams he was acquired from, and a 2.62 ERA with the Brewers.

    Junior Guerra has transitioned into the bullpen nicely and could be key in getting the ball to Josh Hader at game’s end. He’s mixing his pitches as much as he did when he was a starter, he throws his fastball 60% of the time, with the distribution of two-seam and four-seam being almost almost even at 29% and 31%, his splitter at 22%, and his curveball at 19%.

    Whatever formula the general managers of each team do go with, the construction of rosters, whether for the regular season, the Wild Card Game, or for a postseason series, always fascinates me.

    While I might not be able to tell you who this year’s Steve Pearce will be, I can say that some of the decisions made will likely have significant ramifications on who wins the World Series.

  • Scouting some of Japan’s top potential major league hitters

    By Will Hoefer

    At SIS, part of our baseball operation involves collecting data on all of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) games. We’ll be sharing detailed profiles on a player from each of these teams.

    Our first section will focus on the best MLB-eligible hitters (eligible through the posting system). We’ll touch on pitchers in the next piece.

    There will be some notable exceptions from this series, mainly SS Hayato Sakamoto from Yomiuri, OF Seiya Suzuki from Hiroshima, and OF Yuki Yanagita from Fukuoka SoftBank. But whether it be lack of interest in leaving their current situation (Sakamoto), a more imminent posting candidate on their team (Suzuki), or injury concerns relative to a comparable teammate (Yanagita), I thought it was best to focus on one of their teammates instead of them.

    While the primary focus of this series is to examine the skills and performance of NPB players that I think are most likely to be on the radar of MLB organizations, it should not be taken strictly as a list of players coming to the United States to play baseball in 2020. External factors may contribute to the decisions of some. Also, 10 of the 12 players in this series can only be signed through the posting system. Since the new posting system was ratified in 2013 only five players have been signed through it.

    I hope you enjoy reading this series as much as I have enjoyed writing it. All of the players featured are fun to watch, and I hope this encourages you to learn more about leagues that are outside of affiliated and amateur baseball.

    Stats through September 24
    Tetsuto Yamada, 2B, Yakult

    Yamada is often referred to as the “Mike Trout of Japan.” He has accumulated 311 total runs since the start of the 2018 season, the most among NPB batters by quite a large margin. For comparison purposes, his compatriot Trout has led MLB hitters with 317 total runs over the same timeframe.

    Yamada mixes plus hitting and running ability with above average power that could be a plus if he can demonstrate more barrel control through the zone. He’s also a good defender at second base, registering 8 PART (Positioning, Airball, Range and Throwing) runs above average from the start of 2018 to present day action.

    The multi million dollar question, though, is will any MLB team be willing to match the supremely high posting fees Yakult asks for the right to negotiate a contract with Yamada. Yamada profiles as a middle of the order offensive threat with above average defensive at a premium position, which should command a nine figure payday on the open market when you factor in his relatively young age (27) among other options. The Giants make sense on paper, since they expressed an interest in going after Bryce Harper to jumpstart their rebuild last offseason and have a need in the middle infield.

    Tetsuto Yamada PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 514 .274 .403 .566 35 33 17.1% 19.1%
    Career 4260 .297 .401 .534 202 168 14.1% 17.1%

    Shogo Akiyama, OF, Seibu

    Shogo Akiyama is certainly a name to watch right now for MLB teams, as he is a free agent at the end of the 2019 season and won’t be subject to the posting system because he has over nine years of NPB service time. Seibu has reportedly offered a 4 year, ¥ 2 billion contract–the equivalent of $19 million USD–to try and keep their star player a Lion for years to come. This puts us in a unique situation to try and evaluate Akiyama’s market. Any MLB team that’s interested will likely need to see him as a starting outfielder for their club, lest he be willing to take a fairly significant pay cut to play in America.

    The good news on that front is that Akiyama has starting outfielder tools right now. His quick hands and good bat speed give him above-average game power and hit tools, albeit with some concerns about rigidity in his wrists and his occasional issues falling out of the batter’s box on contact. He’s an above-average runner in his early 30s, and while he does show good range and jumps in center, advanced defensive metrics–which should be taken with a grain of salt since they are a fairly new phenomenon in evaluating NPB players–are lukewarm at best and show a decline in Runs Saved from his earlier years in center field.

    Akiyama’s combination of strong on base skills and solid power, in addition to solid center field defense should be plenty to stick in the everyday lineup for a first division team in 2020. But there’s reason to believe that this is the beginning of a decline phase defensively for Akiyama, in which case interested teams might need to consider what a move to a corner spot long term would do to their valuation of him. Cleveland would be a strong fit, since it needs offensive in the outfield badly and could probably afford to give Oscar Mercado the reins in center field going forward.

    Shogo Akiyama PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 675 .305 .394 .474 20 12 11.6% 15.0%
    Career 5181 .301 .376 .454 116 112 9.9% 15.0%

    Yoshitomo Tsutsugoh, OF/1B/3B, Yokohama

    Tsutsugoh has long been viewed as a player who could immediately contribute to any MLB team. One look at his swing and you can see why. He exhibits the bat control and hand quickness of a plus hitter with the bat speed and lower half mechanics to generate plus power. He’s arguably the most polished hitter of any domestic hitter in the NPB, as there’s no wasted movement in his load and his wrists are loose and quick.

    There’s defensive issues that will cap his value. Tsutsugoh is a well below-average runner who shows poor reactions both in the infield and the outfield, though with his plus arm he could be hidden in right field with strong positioning. Yokohama has used him as a third baseman with some frequency this year, but he lacks the foot speed and reflexes necessary to field that position with any long term success.

    With that said, Tsutsugoh should be considered by teams as a DH/1B type if he ends up on the posting market. The White Sox, who not only have a massive hole at DH but will have to make a decision on whether or not they can afford to retain pending free agent first baseman José Abreu, make a lot of sense as a fit for Yokohama’s franchise slugger.

    Yoshitomo Tsutsugoh PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 553 .272 .388 .511 29 0 15.9% 25.3%
    Career 3426 .285 .382 .528 205 6 13.3% 20.8%

    Ryosuke Kikuchi, 2B/SS, Hiroshima

    Simply put, Ryosuke Kikuchi is one of Japan’s premier glovemen. He leads all NPB second basemen with 20 Defensive Runs Saved since the beginning of 2018–when BIS started keeping track of Runs Saved for NPB fielders. He’s got a plus-plus glove at second base, but he lacks the arm strength to really excel anywhere else on the diamond. He’d probably be OK at shortstop, but his best fit is an everyday role at the keystone.

    Kikuchi’s offensive contributions are light; he’s been a slightly above-average hitter in his career to date. He’s a very small guy–5’7”, 152 lbs–that puts the ball in the air too much. He shows decent bat speed, controls the plate, and demonstrates quick wrists when he’s in a groove that allows him to whip the bat through the zone and hit line drives.

    This approach also lets him take advantage of plus speed to beat out grounders and stretch hits for extra bases. When he starts trying to elevate he loses barrel control and doesn’t really have the requisite strength to take advantage of the juiced ball even if he did control the barrel well on elevated strikes.

    Kikuchi has expressed interest in a move to MLB via the posting system this offseason. He lacks the power to really contribute with his bat, but there are teams that could definitely use his defensive contributions at second base that could take the offensive hit. He’d profile as a bottom of the order contact nuisance that offers plus defense at second base.

    Ryosuke Kikuchi PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 595 .261 .312 .404 13 14 6.7% 16.6%
    Career 4671 .271 .315 .391 85 107 5.6% 16.2%

  • New podcast: Austin Hedges passionate about pitch-framing

    LISTEN HERE
    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions baseball podcast, senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) begins the show by praising those who played extraordinary defense for sub-.500 teams this season. (0:57)

    Mark is then joined by Padres catcher Austin Hedges, who rates as the No. 1 pitch-framer in baseball. Hedges talks about the value of pitch-framing and explains where he learned to frame so well (2:27). He then explains the drills he uses to improve (4:54), how he gets low pitches called strikes and what it’s like to catch Craig Stammen’s heavy sinker and Chris Paddack’s fastball (5:56). Hedges also talks about his relationship with umpires and why he strongly supports the human element of an umpire rather than the potential robot umpires of the future (8:00) and which catchers he watches most closely (12:17).

    Mark is then joined by research associate Andrew Kyne (@Andrew_Kyne). They discuss the Hedges interview (15:24), go through the leaderboards for Strike Zone Runs Saved, HR robberies, and Hard-Hit Rates (17:32), answer listener questions on pickoffs and the Mets defense behind Jacob deGrom (21:56) and Andrew gives job-hunting tips to aspiring research analysts (23:23). The show closes with ridiculous numbers about defensive support, the tie-in of Khris and Chris Davis, the leader in bunt hits this season, as well as a final pick of their favorite underappreciated players (27:26).

  • How does Dallas Keuchel lead pitchers in Defensive Runs Saved?

    By Mark Simon

    If you saw our Instagram picture of the Defensive Runs Saved leaders by position yesterday, you might have noticed something unusual.

    Atlanta Braves starter Dallas Keuchel leads all pitchers in Defensive Runs Saved with six. That’s not odd because of who the leader is – Keuchel typically ranks among the best-fielding pitchers in the game. It’s odd because Keuchel didn’t throw a pitch in an MLB game until June 21.

    Despite everyone else having a two-plus month head start, Keuchel still leads the field. How does something like that happen?

    It’s simple. He’s just that good.

    Keuchel has made nine plays with an out probability below 50% this season. Entering Monday, no other pitcher had made more than six such plays. “I’m blessed to have good reflexes,” Keuchel said five years ago. It’s still true today.

    Most Plays With Out Probability < 50% – 2019 Season
    Pitchers
    Dallas Keuchel 9
    Clayton Kershaw 6
    Joe Musgrove 6
    Patrick Corbin 6

    Keuchel’s success goes beyond using his glove. The play with the lowest out probability (8%) was this smash by Tim Anderson that went off Keuchel’s foot, but the Braves pitcher was able to field the ball along the first base line and retire Anderson for the out.

    Another was this broken-bat nubber by Todd Frazier down the third base line, on which Keuchel hustled and made a barehand play to get the out. The out probability there was only 21%.

    Additionally, Keuchel has been a part of a career-high four double plays. And with regard to another aspect of pitcher defense, he has not allowed a stolen base all season. In fact, there’s only been one attempt in 96 2/3 innings against him. Keuchel isn’t perfect — he has three Defensive Misplays this season — but that’s not enough to dent his record. He’s only had one batted ball against him with an out probability for him between 65% and 100% on which he failed to make the play.

    Keuchel has garnered praise recently for an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts heading into his start on Tueday. Let’s not overlook how he’s helped his own cause with some outstanding defensive work.

    Follow us on Instagram at @sportsinfosolutions

  • How does Justin Verlander have a .204 Opponents’ BABIP?

    By Mark Simon

    All stats through Tuesday’s games

    Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander’s opponents’ BABIP this season is .204.

    Simply put: That’s ridiculous.

    Verlander has allowed a lot of home runs this season, 33 to be exact.

    He’s barely allowed anything else. He’s yielded 85 hits that were not home runs in 200 innings.

    The next-lowest opponents’ BABIP by a pitcher currently qualified for the ERA title is the .241 by San Francisco Giants starter Jeff Samardzija. If Verlander keeps his BABIP under .210, it will be the lowest for a pitcher who qualified for the ERA title since Jeff Robinson had a .208 for the 1988 Detroit Tigers.

    If he keeps it at .204, it will be the lowest since Dave McNally’s .202 for the 1968 Baltimore Orioles. And if Verlander lowers it below McNally, it will be surpassed in baseball’s modern era by only Ed Reulbach and his .196 for the 1906 Cubs.

    Lowest Opponents BA on Balls in Play – 2019 Season
    Justin Verlander .204
    Jeff Samardzija .241
    Jack Flaherty .253

    Verlander has done a lot of amazing things in his career. How did this happen?

    Let’s look at things a little more closely.

    It’s the ground balls
    Verlander induces ground balls on 35 percent of the balls that are hit against him. That’s not a high rate by any means. But his infielders seem to always be ready for them.

    Opposing hitters are batting .158 (25-for-158) when hitting a ground ball against Verlander this season. That’s 91 points below their average against him on ground balls entering this season.

    Verlander had one year that was sub-.200, 2012 when that number was .181. But last year, it was .280. In five of the previous six seasons, it was .260 or higher. The MLB average is usually around .240.

    So this is atypical for Verlander. It’s atypical for anyone.

    It’s the shifts
    The Astros are an aggressive team when it comes to shifting. Since 2013, they’ve been among the annual leaders. Verlander’s former team, the Tigers, never had the zest for shifting in Verlander’s time there. They shifted some, but not at a notable level.

    Not every pitcher likes defensive shifts, but you would hope that Verlander does. Opponents are 8-for-72 when hitting a ground ball against Verlander with the Astros using a shifted defense. They’re hitting .111, which is less than half of what the average player hits on those balls (.228).

    Sports Info Solutions records net hits saved against shifts* and estimates that the Astros shifts have a net savings of nine hits on Verlander’s ledger (that includes ground balls and line drives … by our calculations, it’s six hits saved on ground balls). Nine hits saved is worth 23 points to Verlander’s BABIP.

    * The methodology for calculating net hits is as follows: If a batter makes an out against the shift on a groundball that is a hit against an unshifted defense 80 percent of the time, the pitcher gains eight-tenths of a hit saved (0.80). And if a batter gets a hit on a ball that is an out against an unshifted defense 80 percent of the time, the pitcher loses 0.80 hits from facing a shifted defense.

    The sum of all of a pitcher’s gains and losses on his groundballs and short line drives over a season or seasons is his net gain or loss for that period.

    In fairness, the Astros defenders are pretty good on the ground balls on which they don’t shift too, but it’s not quite as stark. Batters are hitting .183 on those (15-for-82) compared to an MLB average of .237.

    The air up there
    The difference in BABIP on a line drive and a fly ball is stark. It’s .678 to .119 for the average major league pitcher. Line drives are hard for a defense to field. Of course, if you give up a fly ball, you’re working at an increased risk of giving up a home run. The trade-off isn’t worth it for a lot of pitchers. But it is for Verlander.

    Verlander has a fly ball rate of 47% and a line drive rate of only 18%, which rank third-highest and ninth-lowest respectively. The ratio of fly balls to line drives is 2.6-to-1. The only pitcher with a higher ratio is John Means (2.8). The average ratio is 1.7-to-1. To validate this further: The average launch angle on a ball hit in the air against Verlander is 36 degrees, the highest for any pitcher. Verlander has thrown the sixth-most high pitches* of any pitcher. He plays into the launch tendency by throwing pitches that are tough to launch.

    * high pitch = in the upper-third of the strike zone or above the top of the zone

    Go back to the no-hitter Verlander threw against the Blue Jays. There were seven balls hit in the air against him. None were line drives.

    This is relevant because it explains why Verlander’s BABIP is so low. He’s had lots of easily-catchable fly balls and very few tough-to-catch line drives. Opponents have a .233 BABIP against Verlander when they hit the ball in the air. The MLB average BABIP on air balls is .349 because there is a higher mix of line drives against most pitchers.

    Verlander is not most pitchers.

    Great plays, not so much
    Our video scouts track Good Fielding Plays. They can pick from about 30 categories and most of the options are related to Web Gems.

    There have been eight Good Fielding Plays for Verlander this season. That’s not a lot in total (Eric Lauer leads MLB with 33) and it’s not a lot on a rate basis (2 per 100 balls in play, which ranks in the bottom 20% of pitchers with at least 200 balls in play against them).

    If you’re wondering – the lowest out probability resulting in an out behind Verlander this season is 11% on this line drive hit by Edwin Encarnacion that was snagged by Astros leftfielder Michael Brantley. A nice catch at the shoetops. There haven’t been many like that.

    It’s not the official scoring
    We can go through this quickly. If you were thinking there was some sort of scoring favoritism behind Verlander’s numbers, there isn’t.

    Verlander hasn’t received any favorable treatment from official scoring that would keep his hits allowed down.

    There have been five errors on balls hit against Verlander. Watch them. They’re all easy error calls for the official scorer.

    So in all …
    The answer to the question in our headline turns out to be a rather boring one. Verlander’s BABIP is as low as it is because the Astros have put their infielders in position to make plays on ground balls. And when the ball is hit in the air, it’s usually launched rather than hit on a line. Sometimes it goes out of the ballpark. But when it doesn’t, it’s usually caught.

    Verlander’s expected BABIP allowed is .234. That’s a 30-point jump but would still be better than any ERA-title qualifier. The number is impressive from any perspective.

    It’s a combination that is boring, effective and rare. It may be enough (along with all the strikeouts) to win Verlander another Cy Young.

    For more notable numbers, check out our Stat of the Week

  • Josh Hader’s amazing outing

    Josh Hader’s amazing outing

    By Will Hoefer

    Milwaukee Brewers closer Josh Hader came into the August 17 game against the Washington Nationals with what was thought to be a lost cause for the Brewers just a half inning prior. Down 11-8, the Brewers socked three home runs against Nats’ closer Sean Doolittle to retake the lead, 12-11, heading into the bottom of the ninth.

    Hader took the ball with a 1 run lead in the bottom of the ninth, promptly yielded a walk, a double and a single to give up the lead and loaded the bases on an intentional pass, all while failing to record a single out. He then reared back and struck out Trea Turner, Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon to send the game to the top of the tenth inning.

    Josh Hader
    Win Probability graph from Fangraphs.com

    In all, Hader entered the game with an 80% chance to give Milwaukee the win, brought it all the way down to 6.7%, then clawed it back up to a coin flip scenario. In a game fraught with improbabilities, this was some of the most improbable stuff you will ever see in a baseball game. Yet, at the same time, such a feat was most probable for Hader.

    Batter’s Odds Of Striking Out Vs. Hader Vs. League Average Pitcher
    Turner 42.9% 19.8%
    Eaton 35.8% 15.5%
    Rendon 33.0% 13.6%
    Three Straight K Odds 5.0% 0.4%

    (numbers rounded to one decimal)

    Using the Log5 method to factor in the ability of the hitter to avoid a strikeout, we can see that the chance of Hader striking out Turner, Eaton and Rendon in succession is about 5%, which is about 12 times more likely than a league average pitcher. It’s hard to strike out any three major league hitters in a row, much less the very capable 1-2-3 hitters that Washington throws out on most nights. But what happens once in a blue moon for a run-of-the-mill MLB pitcher, happens once in a new moon for baseball’s best strikeout pitcher.

    The only pitchers to strike out three batters in the worst case scenario that Hader put himself in–bottom nine, no outs, winning run on third– since 2002 are erstwhile mid 2000s Diamondbacks closer Greg Aquino in 2006,  Blue Jays’ reliever Brett Cecil in 2014, and Twins reliever Taylor Rogers a little more than two weeks before Hader!  Aquino actually struck out all three batters in a row (like Hader), whereas Cecil used an intentional walk to pitch around Evan Longoria and Rogers allowed a game-tying hit to Neil Walker to set up the situation, and intentionally walked Harold Ramirez in the middle of it.

    In that spot, there’s a 13.4% chance a reliever can merely give his team a chance to regain the lead in the top of the tenth. To take all batted ball chance out of the equation puts a ton of pressure on the pitcher to make great pitches. But with Josh Hader on the mound, the weight of that pressure is as light as it ever could be.

  • New football podcast: NFL season is here!

    Listen here

    Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) look ahead to Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season. Matt and Aaron react to the most recent Antonio Brown drama (0:35), discuss some of the things they’re most looking forward to this year (1:40) and break down the three most important games of the week: the New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (6:45), Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (18:03) and Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (25:48).

    For more, check out:

    sportsinfosolutions.com

    footballoutsiders.com

    sportsinfosolutionsblog.com

    SISDataHub.com

     

  • New podcast: Nick Ahmed Dives into Defense

    LISTEN HERE
    On this episode of the SIS Baseball Podcast, senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) opens the show by praising the Cardinals infield’s defensive excellence (0:52) and is then joined by Arizona Diamondbacks Gold Glove-winning shortstop Nick Ahmed (@NickAhmed13).

    Ahmed talks about the kinds of things he has improved upon from one year to the next (2:04), the challenge of turning double plays in shifts (3:15), what goes into making a diving play (6:20), changing positioning based on which pitcher is on the mound (7:25), the most underrated Diamondbacks defender (9:20), his impressions of defensive metrics (11:33) and advice he would give to those who want to play defense like him (13:12).

    Mark is also joined by senior research analyst Alex Vigderman (@VigManOnCampus). They discuss some of Ahmed’s observations (15:07), salute Javier Baez as the top defender in August (17:25), run through a list of the Defensive Runs Saved leaders in the minor leagues (18:51) and talk about an unusual defensive alignment against Eric Hosmer (21:47). Alex also gives tips on job hunting in the baseball analytics world (23:51).

    Lastly, the show closes with ridiculous numbers on Minor League Runs Saved leaders of the past (a predictive stat!) and low pitcher BABIP (29:09). Tune in!

  • 4 Players Hoping For a Better Fate This Month

    By Max Greenfield

    With four weeks to go, the playoff push is in full swing, with every at-bat potentially being a critical one.

    This is a time when some players who underachieved can make up for that with one good month. I wanted to try to find a few players along those lines who could play a big role in September if they got hot. Using our expected statistics (calculated off batted ball type, velocity, and location, which is slightly different from the inputs used by Statcast), here are four candidates.

    Jurickson Profar
    The Oakland Athletics’ young second baseman has been underachieving this year. Profar has a .214 batting average, 18 home runs and a below league average OPS of .704. Yet, based off our expected numbers, Profar should be hitting .272 with 20 home runs, and an .843 OPS.

    One reason Profar could be seeing such a stark difference is that his batting average on fly balls is 70 points below the MLB average. Another is that he’s hitting .163 when hitting a ground ball or short line drive against a shift (in fact, his unshifted numbers are of a similar nature).

    Profar could be on the right track. He’s hitting .333 in his last 10 games, with homers on the road against the Royals and Yankees and an extra-base hit in each of his last three home games.

    Dexter Fowler
    The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder has had a decent rebound season after a tough 2018. He’s had a 1.6 bWAR (baseball-reference WAR) which is over 3 wins higher than what he had in 2018.

    Fowler is currently hitting .249 with 16 home runs and a .780 OPS this year but based off our data, his expected numbers are a .292 batting average, with 20 home runs and a .903 OPS. To put that in perspective, he’d rank inside the top 30 with that OPS this year. If he could hit like that for a month, he’d be highly valuable to the Cardinals’ NL Central chances.

    He’s trending the right way. He had an .849 OPS in August.

    Lorenzo Cain
    Another team in the middle of the NL Central and Wild Card race is the Milwaukee Brewers. Cain was a big contributor to the Brewers last year, posting a 6.9 bWAR, the second highest mark of his career.

    But Cain has struggled in 2019 with a .251 batting average, eight home runs, and a .672 OPS. Though our expected numbers have him a little closer to league average offensively with .287 batting average, 10 home runs, and a .766 OPS. If Cain doesn’t hit a line drive, his offensive production is well under MLB average.

    In the past Cain was able to have well above league average production on ground balls, but that has not kept up this year His hard-hit rate is down too.

    Some of that may be explainable by injuries to his knee, thumb, and most recently his oblique. Cain’s defensive value is still very high, as he has 18 Defensive Runs Saved, most among centerfielders. Now, the Brewers are looking for his offense to match that

    Jesus Aguilar, Rays
    Aguilar struggled early in 2019 with the Brewers and the hope was that’d he’d find some success with the Tampa Bay Rays. While Aguilar’s numbers are better with Tampa, increase in batting average, and on base percentage, he’s still seeing below-average results in power.

    Aguilar’s expected batting average is only 18 points higher than his .238 clip. However, his expected OPS is .780, which is 70 points higher than his actual OPS of .710. Aguilar has 12 doubles and 10 home runs. Our expected numbers give him 15 and 12. The Rays could use a little extra carry on his fly balls this month to boost their postseason hopes.

  • Hey, Nicholas Castellanos: Don’t be such a grump about analytics!

    By Mark Simon

    Chicago Cubs right fielder Nicholas Castellanos recently expressed his distaste for analytics in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

    In a way, that’s unfortunate. The analytics show that Castellanos has made considerable defensive progress this season, his second full season playing right field.

    In 2018, Castellanos had about as rough a season in right field as any player did anywhere. He cost the Tigers 19 runs, almost entirely based in his struggles hit to the deepest part of ballparks.

    But this season, he’s fared far better at turning those balls into outs, thus taking away potential doubles and triples. Here’s the comparison:

    Balls Hit to Deepest Part of Right Field
    Year Plays Made Opportunities Plays Below Average
    2018 81 134 17
    2019 83 118 1

    Castellanos has gone from performing terribly on those balls to becoming an average fielder on them. He’s got a ways to go to be Cody Bellinger (80 plays made on 95 opportunities) but he’s improved to a reasonable level of adequacy.

    The improvement could be rooted in any number of things, with positional familiarity being the most likely. He’s also played a little deeper than he did last season — moving from an average starting position of 289 feet to 292 feet at Comerica Park, and playing 294 feet deep at Wrigley Field. The one or two steps he may have gained in this could be difference makers.

    Granted, Castellanos still has a ways to go. He’s cost his teams a combined six runs this season and his arm could use improvement in terms of baserunning deterrence. But the analytics are showing something positive for him, and perhaps giving him a reason to give them a chance.