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  • How does Victor Robles have 15 Defensive Runs Saved?

    By MARK SIMON

    Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Lorenzo Cain leads all players at the position with 18 Defensive Runs Saved.

    But the player who ranks second might surprise you. It’s not Kevin Kiermaier or Byron Buxton. It’s Victor Robles of the Washington Nationals.

    What has made Robles a standout is not just how he fares at catching balls (though as we’ll note in a moment, he’s pretty good there), but the value of his arm as a baserunning deterrent. He leads all players with seven Outfield Arm Runs Saved.

    How does a player accumulate that many Runs Saved?

    Robles has allowed 48% of baserunners to advance on balls he’s fielded in center, a rate that is slightly better than the MLB average of 53%. The key is that Robles has erased 11 baserunners attempting to advance with throws that did not require a cutoff man. Only two other center fielders even have half that many (Ramon Laureano and Jackie Bradley Jr. have seven).

    Of the 11 baserunners, six were thrown out at second base, three at home plate (literally saving a run), and two at third base. Robles’ total was boosted by four assists in a six-day span in the middle of this month (including this one and this one). The values of those 11 plays make up most of those seven runs.

    Robles is adept in the field too, though not at the level of contemporaries like Cain, Kiermaier or Buxton. Robles’ six Range & Positioning Runs Saved isn’t bad though. It ranks tied for seventh among center fielders.

    Robles’ inventory of great plays in the field includes a wall-crasher to rob Addison Russell of an extra-base hit to preserve a one-run lead in the ninth inning against the Cubs on May 19. That ball had a 4% out probability based on how far and how hard it was hit. But most of Robles’ best work has come on shallow fly balls.

    Robles has played a modest center field at Nationals Park, relative to others who have played there this season. His average depth there is 313 feet (which is coincidentally the same as Cain), which is about two feet shallower than the average center fielder this season. The highlight-worthy catches come on the deep balls. The catches on shallow balls look routine for him but might not be for someone playing deeper.

    As such, Robles’ Range & Positioning rating on balls hit to the shallowest part of the outfield is better than his range rating on balls hit to the deepest part. He’s eight plays made above average on the former, tied with Bader for second in MLB.

    Jake Marisnick leads at nine plays above average on shallow balls. Not everyone can survive a below-average rating on deep balls, but Robles can because he makes so many plays on everything else and has the capability to throw out so many baserunners.

    Victor Robles – Plays Made Above Average (By Depth)
    Plays Made Opportunities Plays Above Average
    Shallow 63 95 8
    Medium 104 115 3
    Deep 84 117 -2
    * Opportunities = Balls on which the CF had a >0% chance of making the play
    * Read this as “Robles made 63 plays on 95 shallow opportunities. The average CF would have made 55 on those same opportunities.”

    Robles hasn’t hit like Juan Soto or Anthony Rendon, but the glove is keeping him on the field, and makes him a highly-valuable part of the Nationals’ playoff push. And a recognizable name among the top defensive center fielders in the game.

    To learn more about our defensive metrics, try the SIS Baseball Podcast. Click here for the link.

  • What if Players’ Weekend nicknames were about their stats?

    By MARK SIMON

    One of the fun things about Players’ Weekend is looking at the names on the back of the jerseys and learning the stories behind the choices. Players are allowed to customize those to whatever nickname or meaningful combination of words they want.

    For example: Oakland Athletics pitcher Mike Fiers is “Smokey.” Indians pitcher Shane Bieber is “Not Justin.” Rangers outfielder Hunter Pence is the shrug emoji, ¯_(ツ)_/¯, and injured Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is “Parmigiancarlo.”

    That got us to thinking: what if players picked their weekend nicknames based on their stats?

    What would be on the backs of those jerseys?

    Here are a few thoughts.

    Chicago Cubs, Javier Baez – “El Mago”

    Ok, so we’re totally cheating to start this off. But with Baez, that choice is way too obvious and gives us an excuse to share his stats.

    Baez ranks third among shortstops with 14 Defensive Runs Saved. He’s the best shortstop at converting double plays. And you’ve seen his great tags on the biggest stage (his quick hands are like a magician’s). Oh, and he also leads the majors in something we track called “Good Baserunning Plays,” which is basically what you think it would be. He has 10 in 2019.

    Kansas City Royals, Whit Merrifield – “Mr. Line Drive”

    It’s been a rough season for the Royals, but they do have someone near the top of the leaderboard in one stat. Utility man Merrifield earns his moniker, because his 29% line drive rate ranks first among batting title-qualifiers.

    Milwaukee Brewers, Lorenzo Cain – “$teal HR”

    We’re using the $ sign as Cain does for his weekend nickname, which is “3 Kid$.”

    Cain has been the best in the majors at robbing home runs both this season (4) and over the last three seasons (7). Honorable mentions to Josh Reddick and Adam Engel, who each have five.

    New York Mets, Jeff McNeil – “Don’t Shift Me!”

    McNeil has benefited as much from defensive shifts of any hitter, doing so by hitting the ball away from the defense. He’s batting an MLB-best .400 (26-for-65) when hitting a grounder or short liner versus a shift.

    New York Yankees, CC Sabathia – “The Bat Breaker”

    There are many ways we could have gone with the Yankees, but since it’s his final season and we want to show off the suite of stats we track, we go with Sabathia’s tendency to do damage to opposing lumber with his pitches.

    Sabathia has broken 53 bats by Sports Info Solutions’ count over the last four seasons. That’s easily the most in the majors.

    New York Yankees, Aaron Judge – “96.6”

    A shout-out to our friends at Statcast. Judge’s average exit velocity of 96.6 MPH leads the majors by 2 MPH over Nelson Cruz (94.5). That number is not far removed from his uniform number, 99.

    Oakland Athletics, Matt Chapman – “Down the Line”

    Chapman is arguably the game’s top defensive player. And what makes him great is in how he takes away would-be doubles down the third base line better than anyone else in the game.

    Chapman has 64 Defensive Runs Saved over the last three seasons, easily the most of any third baseman. He has more than twice as many as second-place Nolan Arenado (31). We thought about making his nickname “Brooks” after baseball legend Brooks Robinson, but he’s not quite ready for that just yet.

    Philadelphia Phillies, J.T. Realmuto – “Don’t Run on Me”

    Realmuto has eight Defensive Runs Saved for stolen base deterrence, easily the most in the majors. He’s thrown out 29-of-69 (42%), the best rate of his career and the best rate in MLB.

    Pittsburgh Pirates, Bryan Reynolds – “Keeler”

    This one is a nod to baseball history. It was Hall-of-Famer Wee Willie Keeler who coined the term “hit ’em where they ain’t.” No one has done that better than Reynolds, who leads the majors with a .398 BABIP this season.

    St. Louis Cardinals, Dakota Hudson – “You’re Grounded”

    This has nothing to do with parental punishment and everything to do with keeping baseballs from going airborne. Hudson leads the majors with a 58% ground ball rate.

    This also could have gone to Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Ryan Yarbrough, who has gotten outs on an MLB-best 82.5% of the ground balls and bunts hit against him.

    San Diego Padres, Austin Hedges – “The Framer”

    Hedges has had a phenomenal defensive season for the Padres. He leads all catchers in our Strike Zone Runs Saved stat, representative of the best catcher at getting his pitchers more strikes than expected this season.

    San Francisco Giants, Kevin Pillar – “Superman”

    Pillar is already known by this moniker to fans, especially those in Toronto. Over the last five seasons, he has the most diving, sliding and jumping catches in the majors (112). You can listen to him talk about this on a past edition of the Sports Info Solutions podcast.

    Tampa Bay Rays, Charlie Morton – “Captain Hook”

    Charlie Morton’s curveball has been one of the most valuable pitches in baseball this season, per FanGraphs’ run values.

    His former Astros teammate Collin McHugh will be wearing what Morton’s nickname could have been, “12 to 6.”

    Washington Nationals, Max Scherzer – “FIP to Be King”

    The Nationals ace, just back from injury, has used Players’ Weekend as a means of pointing out that he was one blue eye and one brown eye. We’ve changed his name to reflect his outstanding numbers with regards to strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. He has the lowest FIP in the majors by more than half-a-run (2.18).

    For more notable stats from Sports Info Solutions, try our Stat of the Week.

  • Stat of the Week: World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher

    By Mark Simon

    Max Scherzer is returning to the Washington Nationals
    rotation on Thursday after missing nearly a month with a rhomboid muscle
    strain. This is just in time both for the Nationals’ playoff push and for
    Scherzer to try to regain his status as the top pitcher in Bill James’ World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings.

    Scherzer, who had a 1.17 ERA in 10 starts prior to his injury, was the No. 1 starter in the rankings to begin the year. He had a small lead entering Wednesday, but Justin Verlander passed him with a great start in a loss to the Tigers.

    Here is the current top 10.

    Bill James World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings
    Rank Name Team Current Score
    1 Justin Verlander Astros 550.3
    2 Max Scherzer Nationals 547.4
    3 Jacob deGrom Mets 522.6
    4 Gerrit Cole Astros 516.9
    5 Chris Sale Red Sox 504.3
    6 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 497.0
    7 Zack Greinke Astros 490.9
    8 Aaron Nola Phillies 487.5
    9 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 486.1
    10 Patrick Corbin Nationals 486.0

    The rankings use a system devised by Bill James in which the primary
    component is a pitcher’s Game Score in each game he starts. Daily updates to the rankings and a comprehensive explanation of the methodology can be found
    here.

    Verlander has survived 33 home runs against him to post a 2.77 ERA. He has 14 starts with a Game Score of 70 or higher. No one else has more than 10. He’s one of three Astros pitchers in the top 10. The Nationals also have three pitchers in the top 10.

    Several pitchers have made big jumps to get into the top
    20 (first number indicates ranking entering March 20):

    Charlie Morton (from 34 to 12)
    Lance Lynn (66 to 13)
    Hyun-Jin Ryu (79 to 17)
    Sonny Gray (65 to 16)
    Luis Castillo (52 to 18)
    Walker Buehler (49 to 15)

    Charlie Morton’s ascent has come with a new team, as he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays this offseason. He’s used a dominant curveball to lead the AL with a 2.70 FIP and ranks second in the league with a 2.85 ERA.

    Lance Lynn is also a free agent signing that paid off for the Rangers. He has a 2.84 ERA in his last 18 starts. Hyun-Jin Ryu has a major-league-leading 1.64 ERA. He’s the healthiest he’s been in a long time, has shown a dominant chanegeup, and will likely make his most starts in a season since he had 30 in 2013.

    Sonny Gray had a rough time with the Yankees, but a trade to the Reds has done him good. His ERA is down nearly two full runs from 2018 to 2.92. His teammate, Luis Castillo, has also had a big drop in ERA thanks to one of the best changeups in baseball. Walker Buehler’s ERA is up from 2018, but he’s had two great starts to boost his score, a 16-strikeout complete game against the Rockies and a 15-strikeout complete game against the Padres.

    The pitcher who has slipped the furthest out of the top 10 is Corey Kluber, who dropped from No. 5 to 30 after missing most of the season with a fractured forearm. He was getting close to returning from injury, but had a recent setback. Kluber and Chris Sale (currently No. 5) may continue to drop due to their injury-related inactivity.

    For more baseball content, check out the Sports Info Solutions Blog or the SIS Baseball Podcast.

     

  • New baseball podcast: Talking with a top prospect

    On this episode, Sports Info Solutions senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) details the story of the success of Yankees outfielder Mike Tauchman, who has had an unexpectedly impressive season in the field (0:59). Mark is also joined by minor league third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (@KeBryanHayes), who is ranked among the top infield prospects in the minor leagues. Ke’Bryan explains where he learned to play defense (3:15), the challenge of not taking a hitting slump into the field (8:03), how minor league teams provide scouting information on where players should position themselves (9:19) and the famous catches made by his father, former major league third baseman Charlie Hayes (12:24). Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) of FanGraphs.com adds a brief scouting report on Hayes (15:29).

    Mark then welcomes senior research analyst Alex Vigderman (@VigManOnCampus) and Andrew Kyne (@Andrew_Kyne), who share what they learned from the Saberseminar Conference in Boston. They share information about a biomechanic study at Wake Forest university (17:54), women working in MLB front offices (19:40), how the Red Sox hitting coaches work with their hitters (20:30), re-imagining the strike zone (22:02), C-Flap helmets (23:29), and the importance of outfielder jumps (24:16).

    The three then answer listener mail on umpires (25:44), stats to measure pitch effectiveness (27:41), and the best stats for predicting “Beat the Streak” success (30:34) and try to stump listeners with Ridiculous Numbers of the Day trivia (32:44).

  • How does Mike Tauchman have 14 Defensive Runs Saved?

    By Mark Simon

    The New York Yankees outfield has been overwhelmed by injuries this season. At various times, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton have been sidelined. In looking for someone who could fill in at all three spots off the bench, they turned to 28-year-old Mike Tauchman as a replacement.

    Tauchman has been great, both at the plate and in the field, and it’s the latter that we’ll focus on here.

    Tauchman has saved 14 runs with his defense, which ranks tied for sixth among outfielders this season. Of the outfielders ranked in the top 17, Tauchman has the third-fewest innings played. He’s made the most of his time in the field.

    How has Tauchman reached such lofty numbers, normally reserved in the Yankees outfield for Brett Gardner?

    He has nine Runs Saved in left, one in center and four in right.

    Let’s focus specifically on left field and right field.

    Sports Info Solutions divides each outfield into three sections – shallow, medium, and deep. Tauchman gets a statistical credit or debit on any ball hit to those spots in which he has a greater than zero percent chance at making the catch. The credit or debit is based on the historical probability of each batted ball being caught.

    If Tauchman makes a catch on a ball that is typically caught by a left fielder 40 percent of the time, he gets a credit of 0.6 (1 minus 0.4). If he misses it, he gets a debit of 0.4 (for the 40 percent of the time the ball is caught). Credits and debits are added up to get a player’s Range and Positioning rating, which is converted into Runs Saved.

    Here’s how Tauchman has done on shallow, medium, and deep balls in the two corner outfield spots.

    You can read this as (for example): “Mike Tauchman has 29 outs on 44 plays in which he had a greater than zero percent chance to make the play. The average player would have recorded 24 outs (29 minus 5).”

    Mike Tauchman – 2019 Season (LF & RF)
    Outs Plays with >0%

    out probability

    		 Plays Made

    Above Average
    Shallow Balls 29 44 5
    Medium Balls 41 50 3
    Deep Balls 36 45 3

    Of note, Tauchman has 15 catches on balls with an out probability of 50 percent or less and has failed to make the play in only five instances with an out probability of less than 50 percent. That number of high-value catches and the lack of high-value misses leads to a combined run value of nine runs at the corner outfield spots.

    Now why is Tauchman making those catches? Surveying the video of those plays found two common themes. One was that he was well positioned, likely by a combination of the Yankees coaches and the analytics department. Tauchman’s most valuable play is this catch on a ball hit by Tommy La Stella of the Angels. It doesn’t look like a difficult catch, but given where the ball was hit (the right-center gap) and how long it was in the air for, that’s a ball that is caught by the right fielder only six percent of the time.

    That play does show something else that holds up. Tauchman is good at reading the low line drive and closing ground on it quickly. This catch against Cavan Biggio of the Blue Jays came on a ball that is turned into an out 13% of the time. He has another catch of that ilk on a ball hit by Yonder Alonso of the White Sox. That ball had an out probability of 26%.

    SIS Video Scouts chart Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors, and players have a chance to gain or lose Defensive Runs Saved based on how they fare in each of those areas. Tauchman has 9 Good Fielding Plays and only 4 Misplays & Errors. Converting each of those plays to a run value gives Tauchman a net of three more Runs Saved. He receives his biggest spike (1.2 Runs Saved) for having a home run robbery against Pedro Severino of the Orioles.

    Lastly, let’s look at the deterrent value of his arm.

    Tauchman doesn’t have a large sample of plays involving baserunner advancement in center or right field. But in left field, he’s recorded three assists without a cutoff man and allowed 17 out of 38 baserunners to advance on base hits on balls he’s fielded. The 45 percent advancement rate is around MLB average.

    The bigger deal is those three instances in which he erased a baserunner (the value in doing so is significant). For that, he receives two runs of credit. The best of the plays he’s made with his arm might be this one nailing Garrett Hampson of the Rockies at home plate.

    Putting it all together, Tauchman gets:

    • +10 Runs Saved for his Range & Positioning (9 for the corners, 1 for centerfield),
    • +3 Runs Saved for his Good Fielding Plays
    • and +1 Run Saved for the deterrent value of his arm.

    That combination makes him one of the most valuable defensive outfielders and one of the best stories in MLB (for more on Tauchman check out either of those links).

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Yankees
    Mike Tauchman 14
    Aaron Judge 11
    Brett Gardner 8

    For more stories like this that go inside the numbers, check out our Stat of the Week and the SIS Baseball Podcast.

  • What Happened to JaCoby Jones’ Defense?

    By Lindsay Zeck

    In 2018, JaCoby Jones led all outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved with 21. He was featured in a blog last October as a multi-position standout with his 11 runs saved in 452 innings in left field and 10 in 558 innings in center field. This season, however, he cost the Tigers 13 runs before suffering a season-ending injury to his wrist. The only outfielders who have cost their teams more are Ian Desmond (-20), Domingo Santana (-16), Shin-Soo Choo (-15), and Melky Cabrera (-13).

    So, what was the cause of Jones’ terrible numbers?

    Sure, he has played the entire season in center field, whereas last season he split his time between both left and center. However, as evidenced above by his 10 runs saved in center field , it wasn’t just his play in left field bolstering his numbers last season.

    The biggest decline in his defense came from his range and positioning, particularly on shallow and medium hit balls, costing nine runs this season and saving seven last season.

    In 2019, he cost nine bases on balls hit to shallow outfield and six bases on balls hit to a medium depth of the outfield, as opposed to costing one and saving two in center field, respectively, in 2018.

    Per Baseball Savant, Jones was playing deeper this season — starting an average of eight feet deeper in center field at Comerica Park this season than he did last season. He was playing an average of 335 feet from home plate as opposed to 327 in 2018. That eight feet clearly made it more difficult for him to make plays on shallower balls.

    It didn’t, however, help him to make plays on balls hit to deep center field. He saved six bases last season on those balls and only three bases this season, despite playing nearly 168 more innings in center field in 2019.

    This chart illustrates the difference in Jones’ performance in center field the last two seasons.

    JaCoby Jones
    Plays Made Opportunities Out Rate
    2018 Shallow 44 66 67%
    2019 Shallow 34 74 46%
    2018 Deep 62 74 84%
    2019 Deep 75 101 74%
    >> Opportunities: Balls on which he had >0% chance to get an out

    His arm is also partly to blame. While baserunners were running on him with about the same frequency as last season (61 percent of the time), he threw out one baserunner without the help of the cutoff man, as opposed to five baserunners last season.

    Jones also had 11 Defensive Misplays, the highest number of his career with nearly two months left in the season. His most common issues, with three misplays of each type, are failing to anticipate the wall and failing at his attempts of diving for a fly ball or line drive.

    The Tigers are hoping that when he does return from injury, he comes back as his 2018 defensive self. He is the biggest reason why the Tigers outfield is the worst in the American League and the second worst in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved with -34. Only the Rockies outfield is worse with -47. You can read about the Rockies’ woes here.

    It is worth noting that while Jones’ defensive performance decline, his offensive numbers got better.

    Jones greatly improved his slash line against fastballs, hitting .302 with a .470 slugging percentage and .847 OPS in 2019. This is a vast improvement over his .187 batting average and .623 OPS slash line against fastballs in 2018. This is due in part to his improved contact, swinging and missing only 18 percent of the time against fastballs this season as opposed to 25 percent last season.

    You could say that though he didn’t get to more balls in the field, at least he got to more of them at the plate.

  • Joe Panik: Not a big deal, however …

    By Mark Simon

    The Mets signed Joe Panik today. That’s not a signing that would be thought of as much of a big deal. However …

    Panik is hitting .235 with three home runs and a .627 OPS this season.

    However, he misses on only 10% of his swings (the third-lowest rate in MLB). Also, his expected numbers indicate that he was underachieving with the Giants.

    Based on batted ball type, location and velocity, Panik’s expected numbers by our metrics are a .281 batting average with eight home runs and a .774 OPS.

    Note that our inputs are different from Statcast’s, which aren’t as bullish on him, but still indicate a 36-point difference in expected and actual slugging percentage and a 23-point difference between expected and actual wOBA.

    Panik grades out as an average defender by Defensive Runs Saved this season.

    However, average is an upgrade for the Mets, given Robinson Cano’s struggles both at the plate and in the field for much of the season. Panik also has 18 Good Fielding Plays, based on review from our Video Scouts. That’s tied for fourth by a second basemen this season. He also ranked in the top-third among second basemen in most Good Fielding Plays per 100 Innings and fewest Defensive Misplays & Errors per 100 innings this season.

    Panik contributed -0.4 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference version) to the Giants this season.

    However, things tended to go better when he played than when he didn’t. The Giants are 46-39 when he started this season. They’re 11-20 when he didn’t.

     

  • Who are the hottest teams and hitters?

    By Mark Simon

    Several years ago, Bill James established a formula to determine the hottest teams in baseball (subscription required to view), with the idea being that every team starts the season at room temperature (72 degrees) and then tracks upward or downward with the result of each game.

    He also devised a formula for hitters using a similar scale but based on each plate appearance. Positive results produce an increase in temperature. Negative results produce a decline.

    The hottest team in baseball at the moment is the Mets, and that’s largely a product of their winning 13 of 14 games against the Padres, Pirates, White Sox, and Marlins. The schedule gets much tougher for the Mets beginning Friday when they start a three-game series with the NL Wild Card-leading Nationals.

    The Mets also have two of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment. Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil rank second and third behind only Giovanny Urshela of the Yankees. Conforto is hitting .338 with eight home runs and 17 RBI in his last 21 games. He reached 100 career home runs in a win over the Marlins on Wednesday.

    McNeil has been a hot hitter all season. He went 0-for-3 on Opening Day but since then his batting average has been at least .327 at the end of every day this season. McNeil excels because he hits the ball all over the field. He’s one of the best in baseball at finding holes in an opposing defense, as evidenced by his .397 batting average when hitting a ground ball or short line drive against a defensive shift.

    The AL’s hottest team at the moment is the Astros, who have won 16 of 19 games, with their four most recent wins coming from Aaron Sanchez (the combined no-hitter), Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Gerrit Cole.

    The Astros are a complete team. They rank in the top three in the American League in all three slash line stats. They have two hitters currently in the top 10 on the hottest hitters list in Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. Bregman is 11-for-23 with eight runs scored and seven RBIs during the Astros’ current six-game winning streak. Gurriel was the AL Player of the Month in July. He has 45 RBIs in his last 31 games, including eight in a win over the Rockies on Wednesday.

    Their starting rotation includes three of the game’s top pitchers in Verlander, Greinke, and Cole. Their bullpen is strong with Will Harrisand Ryan Pressly setting up Roberto Osuna. And their defense leads the American League in Defensive Runs Saved.

    The way the Astros are playing, it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re at or near the top of the hottest teams list throughout the rest of the season. But whether or not they finish the year there will depend if they can maintain that all the way through October.

    Hottest Teams in MLB
    By Bill James Formula
    Entering Friday
    Mets 119°
    Astros 118°
    Yankees 117°
    Dodgers 109°
    Indians 107°

     

    Hottest Hitters in MLB
    By Bill James Formula
    Entering Friday
    Giovanny Urshela 115°
    Michael Conforto 106°
    Jeff McNeil 104°
    Cameron Maybin 103°
    Nicholas Castellanos 101°

    For more baseball content like this, check out Bill James Online.comand the Sports Info Solutions blog.

  • Which Crosstown Team Would Be Best?

    By JON BECKER

    Yesterday, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted a question to his followers: Would an All-New York team, made up of players from the Mets and Yankees, win the World Series?

    I tend to think yes, and pretty easily to boot. But would the New York Mankees (Yets? Metsees?) be best of the crosstown teams? Let’s find out by making three teams, one for each of the three cities with two teams, and comparing. Let’s start with the offenses:

    STARTING LINEUPS

     New YorkLos AngelesChicago
    CGary Sanchez (NYY)Will Smith (LAD)Willson Contreras (CHC)
    1BPete Alonso (NYM)Cody Bellinger (LAD)Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
    2BGleyber Torres (NYY)Max Muncy (LAD)Yoan Moncada (CWS)
    3BGio Urshela (NYY)Justin Turner (LAD)Kris Bryant (CHC)
    SSAmed Rosario (NYM)Corey Seager (LAD)Javier Baez (CHC)
    LFJeff McNeil (NYM)Alex Verdugo (LAD)Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
    CFAaron Hicks (NYY)Mike Trout (LAA)Jason Heyward (CHC)
    RFMichael Conforto (NYM)Kole Calhoun (LAA)Nicholas Castellanos (CHC)
    DHAaron Judge (NYY)Shohei Ohtani (LAA)Jose Abreu (CWS)

    We’re aware that we’re cheating by putting Moncada at second base,  where he hasn’t played all season. But he played there last year, so it works in that regard.Here’s where each offense ranks in some macro-level stats this year:

    ADDENDUM: We’d also add DJ LeMahieu, David Fletcher and Tim Anderson as utility players if we had such a spot; Fletcher and LeMahieu have been excellent while playing multiple positions, and Anderson has been very good but not quite as good as Baez.

    Hard-Hit Rate

    Note that our hard-hit rate, unlike others’, uses all balls in play and strikeouts as the denominator, not just balls in play.

    1. Los Angeles (35%)
    2. New York (31%)
    3. Chicago (29%)

    Defensive Runs Saved

    This only includes DRS at the player’s position listed, not their total. Most notably, this removes all of Bellinger’s DRS as a right fielder.

    1. Los Angeles (28)
    2. Chicago (-15)
    3. New York (-24)

    The LA team didn’t have any eye-popping numbers, but they did have a positive Runs Saved from every single player, led by Verdugo’s +6 in left field. They would also get a spike if we added in the Dodgers and Angels combined work in shifts (the Dodgers lead the majors in Shift Runs Saved)

    The Chicago team was brought down by Heyward (-6) and Castellanos (-6), and Moncada (who was -5 in 2018). New York’s only positive contributor is McNeil (+1) with Rosario (-14) and Torres (-5) its biggest detractors. Neither New York team has performed well in defensive shifts this season.

    Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)

    Only offensive WAR is considered for the DHs

    1. Los Angeles (27.7)
    2. New York (19.6)
    3. Chicago (18.4)

    Unsurprisingly, having Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger on your team certainly helps your overall production. In fact, 1B and CF are the only two positions where the LA team leads in WAR. New York has a stronghold in LF (4.5 WAR to LA’s 3.2) and Chicago dominates up the middle on the infield (a combined 8.1 WAR to LA’s 5.2 and NY’s 3.6).

    So it’s a clean sweep for Los Angeles on the hitting side–let’s see if other teams can make up ground with pitching.

     New YorkLos AngelesChicago
    SP1Jacob deGrom (NYM)Clayton Kershaw (LAD)Lucas Giolito (CWS)
    SP2Noah Syndergaard (NYM)Walker Buehler (LAD)Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
    SP3Marcus Stroman (NYM)Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD)Cole Hamels (CHC)
    SP4Domingo German (NYY)Kenta Maeda (LAD)Yu Darvish (CHC)
    SP5Zack Wheeler (NYM)Rich Hill (LAD)Jon Lester (CHC)
    RP1Aroldis Chapman (NYY)Kenley Jansen (LAD)Alex Colome (CWS)
    RP2Adam Ottavino (NYY)Hansel Robles (LAA)Aaron Bummer (CWS)
    RP3Zack Britton (NYY)Ty Buttrey (LAA)Brandon Kintzler (CHC)

    Different group of players, same exercise: let’s compare some stats:

    Hard-Hit Rate Allowed

    1. New York (24%)
    2. Chicago (25%)
    3. Los Angeles (28%)

    It was really hard to cobble together a rotation for Los Angeles made up entirely of Dodgers–the Angels really have no starting pitchers of note. That lack of depth really hurt the LA team, namely with the inclusion of Buttrey, whose hard-hit rate is 34%. Surprisingly, Maeda leads the LA pitchers with a 21% hard-hit rate allowed, and Kershaw brings up the rear of the rotation with a 31% rate.

    Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)

    1. New York (18.7)
    2. Chicago (18.5)
    3. Los Angeles (14.5)

    0.2 WAR is well within the margin of error for Wins Above Replacement, so you really can’t go wrong when deciding between New York or Chicago for which pitching staff has been best this year. The lack of depth for Los Angeles hurts it once again, with the last two starting pitcher spots combining for just 2.2 WAR, compared to 2.5 for Chicago and 3.9 for New York.

    And now, the three hybrid groups ordered by who has the most total Wins Above Replacement:

    1. Los Angeles (42.2)
    2. New York (38.3)
    3. Chicago (36.9)

    This is pretty close! Keep in mind we haven’t added in bench players yet — we’ve focused on who the primary players would be — so perhaps New York or Chicago could make up a little ground there (as one reader pointed out, D.J. LeMahieu fits best as a New York utility man). I don’t think you could go wrong with picking any of the three teams. But for me personally, it’s hard to go against the team that has Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger, who could very well end up as the MVPs of their respective leagues. But that’s just who I’d pick right now.

    Looking ahead, I’d be very tempted to pick the New York team, whose position players are all young, and whose pitching staff is loaded with potential. Contrasted with the Chicago team (which has a fairly aged pitching staff) and the Los Angeles team (whose pitching staff is rife with injury concerns even for its younger players), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the New York collection of players end up being the best a few years down the line.

    For more MLB content, take a look at some of our other MLB blog posts and for more information about Sports Info Solutions, visit our website.

  • A rocky outfield situation in Colorado

    A rocky outfield situation in Colorado

    By Will Hoefer

    A lot has been made of “The Coors Effect.” Some liken it to a hangover, though any Coors drinker will tell you that requires a lot of Coors to get you in such a state of disrepair. The phrase has usually been deployed to describe a dramatic road and home effect on Rockies’ hitters, but I’d like to focus on a different subject matter as it relates to how Colorado players perform differently in their constantly shifting environs.

    Outfield defense, in particular range and positioning, has been subject to vastly differing levels of performance by Rockies outfielders depending on if they are in Denver or not.

    The charts below show how many plays the Rockies outfielders were above or below an average defense on balls hit to different parts of the outfield. The higher the number, the better the team is. The lower the number, they worse the outfield was at catching balls.

    Rockies Plays Made Above/Below Average

    All stats below are entering Tuesday

    Coors 2016-2018  Shallow  Deep  Total
    Plus-Minus
    3-Year Plus-Minus Total -35 2 -34
    Road 2016-2018
    3-Year Plus-Minus Total 17 -11 8
    Coors  2019  Shallow  Deep Total

    Plus-Minus
    Home Pace -21 -7 -49
    Road 2019
    Road Pace -5 10 15

    As you can see, the Rockies as a team struggled with shallow hit fly balls and line drives into the cavernous confines of Coors from 2016 to 2018. However, they mostly corralled the deeper hit balls in Denver, which makes sense conventionally– singles turn into doubles and doubles turn into triples.

    The downside is that playing the outfielders so deep ceded so many plays in front of the Rockies’ outfield that there ended up being 34 fewer plays made than the league average.

    On the road, it was a different story; the Rockies outfielders ended up preventing a significant amount of plays in front of them while ceding some plays on deep flies.

    They had above average range and positioning on the road and were a whopping 40 plays better away from Coors from 2016-2018. Going into 2019, the Rockies seemingly made an effort to get better at reaching shallow balls into the outfield at Coors and deep balls on the road.

    That’s reflective in the 2019 tables above, but as you can see they ceded so many more plays on the opposite ends of the spectrum–deep flies at Coors and shallow flies and liners on the road–that they’ve been worse overall at preventing runs with their outfield range and positioning.

    There are additional reasons that the Rockies’ range and positioning has declined at Coors in 2019 apart from decisions about where to position their outfielders. The choice to make Ian Desmond the everyday center fielder has been much maligned by about every advanced metric available to evaluate defensive performance.

    Desmond ranks toward the bottom of the list in outfielder jump and outs above average among qualifying outfielders on Baseball Savant, and he is dead last in Defensive Runs Saved (-19 Runs Saved) to date in 2019.

    On the box and whisker plots below, the whiskers represent the overall range of the plays made or not made, and the line in the box is the average (mean) run value for a player on balls hit to him.

    CoorsShallow2019 for blog

     

     

    Coors Deep for Blog

    You can see that Desmond has essentially failed to make any play on shallow balls at Coors, and as a result, he loses about a run defensively on every five balls hit in front of him.

    Conversely, younger and more fleet-of-foot outfielders David Dahl (who recently went on the IL with a sprained ankle) and Raimel Tapia have more or less held their own in making plays on deep and shallow balls at Coors. Neither are perfect fits; Dahl has a -10 DRS and Tapia has a -8 DRS on the year.

    This speaks to a larger point about Coors; it’s an extraordinarily hard place to prevent runs, both on the mound and in the field. Over the 17 years Baseball Info Solutions has been keeping track of DRS, Rockies’ outfielders have been 371 runs below league average. That encompasses everything we calculate — range, throwing, and making good defensive plays while avoiding mistakes.

    That’s the worst, and it’s not even close; the White Sox outfielders are 29th with 191 runs below league average, which is a 180-run difference. By Range and Positioning, the Rockies do move up two spots to a tie for 27th.

    It’s always going to be an uphill battle to save runs in the outfield for Colorado at home, but it’s also imperative that they make the best decisions possible with so many runs at stake. While Dahl and Tapia aren’t going to be topping the DRS leaderboards, they could be better options to track down balls at a premium position than Desmond. The Rockies tried a different look in the outfield on their last road trip, moving Desmond to left and Dahl to center (Dahl subsequently got hurt and others have played center since then). It may be worth making that a permanent change.