Photo: Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

The teams, media, and fans have all descended upon Santa Clara, with most of them arriving through the air. Hopefully, Drake Maye and the rest of the Patriots passing attack were taking notes, because the Patriots’ aerial attack has been missing in action to this point in the postseason. Because this seems to fall on the Patriots QB.

Patriots Grounded

Thus far in the postseason, Drake Maye and the Patriots passing attack have posted the lowest Passing Total Points per Play (-0.28) and the 4th-lowest Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (4.6 ANY/A)  of all playoff teams. That’s a stark difference when they were humming with the 11th-highest Passing Total Points per Play (0.16) and 2nd-highest ANY/A (8.2) in the regular season.

This nightmare has come from extreme negative plays as well. A 31% Bust Rate (passing plays that result in -1 EPA or worse), 15 sacks (the next-highest is 6), and 6 fumbles are all the worst in the playoffs, but yet somehow this Patriots offense has avoided the worst outcomes on these plays.

And yes, we know the weather was awful in Denver last Sunday. Even if we take the Broncos game out, Maye was still the lowest in Passing Total Points Per Play

Metric	Regular Season	Playoffs
Turnover-Worthy Throw Rate	2.8%	5.2%
Expected On-Target Percentage Plus-Minus	+3.0%	-8.5%
Expected Snap-To-Throw Plus Minus	21ms Above Expectation	12ms Above Expectation

The advanced metrics paint a deeper picture of what might be going on. The time in which Maye is getting the ball off is very similar to that of the regular season and even slightly quicker (ms = milliseconds). However, the underlying expected accuracy has fallen off a cliff by 11.5 percentage points and his turnover-worthy throws have increased by 2.4 percentage points in the playoffs. (The expected part of these terms factors in parts of the play like down, distance, dropback type, throw type, etc.)

Playing against the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos defenses is certainly difficult, as they are widely considered to be three of the best in the league. However, that is expected to happen when you step up in class against playoff teams, and this Seahawks defense is no different than the rest.

Legion of Boom 2.0?

This Seahawks pass defense has been nothing short of spectacular all season long. 

From a production standpoint, their pass rush is getting the job done with a pretty straightforward approach. They like to rush four, with the 6th-lowest blitz rate in the league. They rank between 9th and 11th in pressure rate, sacks per game, and forced fumbles, which are all pretty solid, especially when you pair that group with a secondary that has been lights out.

The secondary has allowed the 2nd-lowest yards per coverage snap (5.5) and the 5th-lowest passer rating (79.7). They have also accumulated the 4th-highest Pass Coverage Total Points per play, proving the production.

Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen have been spectacular, with each allowing only 5 yards per attempt which is T-16th among corners and safeties. Nick Emmanwori has also had an incredible rookie season and has been a jack of all trades, playing virtually every position on defense other than defensive line.

Flipping the Script

On paper, this looks like an advantage for the Seahawks given the recency of their success and the failures of the Patriots. However, in a one game winner-take-all situation, the script can flip on a dime and anything can happen. But how can the Patriots do that?

The Seahawks have allowed only five 100-yard games from receivers this year with those being Puka Nacua (twice), Trey McBride, Emeka Egbuka, and Ricky Pearsall. They also have allowed only three 300-yard passing games in total who were against the Rams (twice) and the Buccaneers.

One thing in common with these names is that they are all the main playmakers on their respective teams (Pearsall from week 1 the lone debate). The Patriots have guys that have been reliable all season long but have faded here in the postseason. 

Leading regular season receiver Stefon Diggs and second-in-command Hunter Henry have taken a step back. Diggs has accounted for the 4th-most receiving yards on the team with 73 and Henry the 3rd-most with 81. Getting these guys the ball in tough situations may be the only ticket to get an anemic passing game back rolling again, so look for these two to be targeted in situations over the middle and/or in tight windows.

The way the Seahawks pass defense is playing, it is going to take the MVP candidate version of Drake Maye getting the ball to his star receivers in tough situations and letting them make plays for the team to find success. Easier said than done, that’s for sure!