Tag: San Francisco Giants

  • Going Deeper: How Brandon Crawford won a Gold Glove in 2021

    Going Deeper: How Brandon Crawford won a Gold Glove in 2021

    By MARK SIMON

    Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford won his fourth career Gold Glove Award last week and while he might not have had the best defensive statline among the NL finalists, we’ll say that it was a deserved honor.

    Crawford had a great season at the plate and a very good one in the field for a division-winning team. He’s going to finish strongly in the MVP voting on Thursday.

    I was on the conference call that Crawford did with the media the night he won and I was amused because there was a Michael Jordan touch of “And I took that personally” to some of his comments.

    Crawford first said that winning this Gold Glove felt better than his previous three, saying that he was “kind of being told by everyone basically that my defense is falling off, that I’m not the same guy anymore, that I’m getting old, that kind of stuff.”

    He then later added “I don’t think in 2019 that I became some kind of terrible defender, even though the analytics didn’t like me.”

    Reading between the lines here, it sounds like Crawford’s awareness of stats like his -10 Defensive Runs Saved from 2019 (only one shortstop rated worse) or similar numbers from other sources were at least a little bit of a motivating force for him these last two seasons.

    I think that’s pretty cool.

    I’m sure plenty of hitters are motivated by numbers in their batting statline. I think it’s good to see them motivated by their fielding numbers too.

    Feeling Fitter

    In acknowledging what made him a better defender in 2021 than past years, Crawford pointed out that he put less wear-and-tear on his body.

    The numbers bear that out.

    Our Video Scouts track how often a player slides, dives, and jumps. This data actually gets factored into our proprietary injury prediction model. We’ve determined that players who slide, dive, and jump more often have a higher risk of getting injured.

    Makes sense, right?

    Crawford did go all out for plays less often than he did two seasons ago in a similar number of innings.

    Crawford’s slides, dives, jumps
    2019 63 instances
    2021 45 instances

    So having a little bit of a healthier body could have played some part in the improvement.

    But I wanted to see what was tangibly better about Crawford in 2021, particularly as it applied to his range and throwing. He went from -8 Runs Saved in those areas in 2019 to +7 Runs Saved in 2021.

    One thing that Crawford referenced was that he took fewer risks on throws. I couldn’t find anything to bear this out within the throwing component of his Runs Saved total, though he did have six throwing Defensive Misplays or Errors in 2019 compared to just two in 2021, so there appears to be some truth to that.

    But by our measures, 2021 was all about Crawford’s range being considerably better than 2019 and something more resembling his prime years.

    Range Review

    One thing SIS can do is tally out conversion rates for players based on where batted balls are hit.

    Here are Crawford’s from 2019 and 2021:

    How Often Did Brandon Crawford Convert An Out On Balls Hit …

    Season To His Left Straight-On To His Right
    2019 57% 90% 55%
    2021 61% 92% 54%

    The improvements are as high as 4% on balls hit to his left, with a 1% drop on balls hit to his right.

    Those numbers sound small, so let’s give a little context around them.

    In terms of actual plays made, the difference between 2019 and 2021 on balls hit to his left is notable because shortstops make plays on balls hit to their left most often.

    Had Crawford fielded the 251 balls hit to his left with the same out rate as he had in 2019, he would have turned 10 fewer batted balls into outs.

    That’s a considerable number, especially when you think of it like you’d think of a hitter.

    Imagine being a hitter who went 80-for-250. That’s a .320 batting average.

    Now imagine that hitter going 70-for-250. That’s a .280 batting average.

    The differences on straight-on balls and balls hit to his right are less stark. The +2% and -1% gaps don’t have the same impact, both because they’re smaller percentages and because there are fewer opportunities on those balls.

    So we’ve ascertained that Crawford being better to his left was key to his Runs Saved improvement.

    We should note that he improved to a similar out rate on balls to his left in the smaller sample of the 2020 season…so this was about making an improvement and maintaining it for a 162-game season.

    But why would he be better to his left?

    In 2020 the Giants brought in a largely new coaching staff, with Gabe Kapler replacing Bruce Bochy as manager. And we talked with bench coach Kai Correa, who works with infielders, on The SIS Baseball Podcast in April.

    Citing Evan Longoria as an example, Correa said that as infielders aged, it was up to coaches to provide ways to adapt to their lessened foot speed and arm strength. Options to do so are presented to the player like a menu of suggestions to give the player ownership in the process.

    In Crawford’s case, we’re guessing the option he chose involved something that moved him back a step or two, to give him more time to react to a hard-hit ground ball.

    We say that because these are the average Statcast fielder depths for Crawford.

      From Home Plate
    2019 147 Feet
    2021 149 Feet

    The couple-feet differential in average depth was consistent whether the Giants were shifting or not.

    Also, when Kapler was hired as Giants manager, one of the points he made to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic about Crawford was that he needed to be “more consistent in his pre-pitch routine.”

    That took a little more digging and some hunting through camera angles that showed those moments. It’s video we can’t share here, though I’ll try to describe it. The contrast between 2019 and 2021 was in Crawford’s movement as the pitcher was about to make his pitch.

    It wasn’t as dramatic as the crow hop that Kevin Newman of the Pirates used but more of what was described in Baggarly’s article–a slight adjustment in positioning followed by his coming set in a centered position.

    He also moved slightly in one direction, which allowed him to move more quickly in the opposite direction (I highly recommend the article linked two paragraphs up to learn more about this). As a result, Crawford was less likely to be caught flat-footed, as he sometimes was in 2019.

    The last aspect of this was that the Giants defensive positioning was on-point in 2021, particularly in defensive shifts. They led the majors in our Shift Positioning Runs Saved stat. The good positioning likely made for easier balls to handle AND less need to slide, dive, and jump.

    Film Review

    So what does the difference in Crawford 2019 and Crawford 2021 look like on film?

    Let’s see if we can sum it up in two sets of plays.

    Here’s one from 2021 that he made:

    It best shows the benefit of playing a little deeper, as Crawford was at 152 feet, three feet deeper than average, with Anthony Rizzo at-bat.

    This is a play worth about 0.6 runs because our out probability for it is only 20%.

    It’s very difficult to find plays that are identical, but let’s contrast that with this one:

    This play had an out probability over 90%–and we’re making an educated guess that a lot of those outs came on plays where the fielder was positioned a little deeper (our positioning model accounts for lateral position, not depth). On this play, Crawford was positioned a full ten feet shallower than his average in 2021.

    And then let’s look at two balls with a lot of zip on them to illustrate the difference in how he reacted to balls.

    Here’s one he made in 2021, again worth 0.6 runs.

    And here’s one he missed from 2019, for which he was dinged the same 0.6 runs.

    And here’s a chart to go with it — showing how much better Crawford was in 2021 on hard-hit balls. It’s not close.

    Brandon Crawford On Hard-Hit Balls

    (In All Directions)

     

    Plays Made – Opportunities Out Conversion Rate +/- vs Expected Plays Made
    2019 63-134 47% 11 plays below expected
    2021 67-125 54% 6 plays above expected

    In summary:

    Crawford and the Giants did a good job in working together to address the issues that came up as Crawford aged. They identified a weakness and turned into something closer to a strength. And data appears to have played a role in helping out.

    Though Crawford has been quoted as saying that he’s not out to improve his defensive metrics, he just concerns himself with winning games, given the Giants’ success, it’s fair to say that the two go hand-in-hand here, no?

     

  • Bill James Handbook Excerpt: The Manager and the Jeopardy Champ

    Bill James Handbook Excerpt: The Manager and the Jeopardy Champ

    By MARK SIMON

    This essay is featured in The Bill James Handbook 2022, which is available now from ACTASports.com. The Handbook features 640 pages of essays, stats, leaderboards, and much more. Buy it today!

    As a fan of the TV show Jeopardy, I’ve greatly enjoyed the recent run of dominance by one of the game’s all-time best players, Matt Amodio (whose hobby happens to be studying baseball stats).

    What made Amodio so impressive was not just his knowledge base, but in how he managed a game. He played aggressively, picked the bottom clues first,  hunted down Daily Doubles, and then made big wagers on them. He bet on himself and his team (his brain cells) to come through as needed.

    In the 2021 baseball season, the game manager most similar to Amodio was Gabe Kapler of the Giants.

    Kapler has come a long way from his two rough seasons with the Phillies. In two seasons with the Giants he’s changed things up a little bit and maxed out on what he’s gotten from his team.

    The Giants have led the majors in pinch-hitter usage in each of the last two seasons by a considerable margin and in 2021, they finished with 68 more than the next-closest team.

    And Kapler made big bets on his entire bench this year. Seven different players had at least 20 pinch-hit at-bats. The Giants also led the NL in defensive substitutions with 48.

    But Kapler took it a step further. He and his coaching staff established in-game platoons that were meant to go beyond one moment in a game. The Giants had 116 substitutes (including relievers) enter a game this season and record at least two plate appearances. No other team had more than 90.

    Kapler’s other version of managing aggressively was in the composition and use of his bullpen, a mix of lefties, righties, and unusual arm angles (Tyler Rogers). The Giants used relievers on consecutive days 146 times, more than any other team. And those pitchers were great! They had an MLB-low 1.48 ERA in those situations.

    Amodio’s strategy was a winning one and had considerable staying power. Kapler’s had enough staying power to get through 2021 with 107 wins for the Giants. Whether it will work for the long term will be a greater challenge.

  • Giants Are Well-Positioned To Make Their 2021 Run

    Giants Are Well-Positioned To Make Their 2021 Run

    By MARK SIMON

    Last Monday, Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil took an 0-for-5 against the Giants. He struck out once, lined out once and grounded out three times.

    The last two ground outs, one to shortstop Brandon Crawford and another to third baseman Evan Longoria shared a common thread. Neither infielder had to move laterally to make the play. They were in the perfect spot.

    This is one of the subtle keys to success for the Giants this season. Their infield defense, specifically when the team uses a defensive shift, seems to always be in position to make an out.

    Our company can track and put a value on this as part of our PART system for evaluating defense. PART stands for Positioning, Air Balls (Flies, Popups and Liners), Range, and Throwing.

    While a defensive player is evaluated for the ART portion, his team gets assessed a credit or debit based on where its players were stationed relative to where the ball was hit. You can learn more by reading this piece. Simply put, if a fielder’s positioning gives him a better chance to make the play, even if he doesn’t make it, he’s getting a credit.

    This system is largely about small-value credits and debits but those add up over time. By our count, the Giants have saved 27 runs just based on where they’ve stationed their infielders in a shift, the most in MLB.

    The Giants are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to shift usage and use full shifts (three infielders on one side) at a rate that ranks 22nd in MLB. But they’ve been so good at it. They’ve turned 80% of ground balls into outs when using a full shift. Only the Padres are better (81%).

    Most Positioning Runs Saved on Defensive Shifts

    Team Runs Saved
    Giants 27
    Angels 26
    Tigers 22
    Marlins 21
    Braves 20

    * Average MLB team has 13 Runs Saved from Shift Positioning (full list here)

    Here are some examples of the Giants’ excellence.

    * This is a play that was helped by the combination of a nimble fielder and a non-nimble baserunner, but also based on where Donovan Solano was to start. That play isn’t being made if the Giants are in a standard defense.

    * Another Diamondbacks frustration and another Giants success. Here’s Crawford handling a rocket from Stephen Vogt. Crawford doesn’t have to move at all. His entire effort goes into fielding the ball.

    * When a right-handed pull hitter like Paul DeJong is up and a team moves its second baseman to the other side of the field, it leaves the first baseman alone on an island. Here, they play Lamonte Wade Jr. well wide of first base and it pays off.

    * Wilmer Flores and Tommy LaStella are below-average infielders defensively for their careers, so in order to maximize what you get out of him, you need to put him in good spots. The Giants did so here and got a Giants-killer, Max Muncy, and a dangerous hitter, Omar Narvaez, out as a result.

    * And to show one example on which a play was not made, but the Giants still got a statistical boost for good positioning:  Here’s one from that same Mets game as was referenced atop the piece, a ball hit by Brandon Nimmo on which the positioning was sound but the execution was not.

    The Giants don’t have a perfect defense. But they have a very good one, one influenced significantly by where they put their players. It’s another piece among their many components that have put them in position (pun fully intended) to have a big season.

  • Split-decision: Kevin Gausman’s incredible pitch

    By MARK SIMON

    Think about what you consider the best pitches in baseball.

    There are lots of contenders: Jacob deGrom’s fastball, Shane Bieber’s curveball, Dinelson Lamet’s slider, Devin Williams’ changeup are among many.

    One that you might not have thought about is Giants pitcher Kevin Gausman’s splitter.

    Here’s why we bring Gausman up:

    Since August 9, 2020, Gausman is 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 65 2/3 innings pitched. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

    Gausman has thrown 289 splitters in that time. And opponents are batting .014 against the pitch.

    That’s 1-for-73.

    That’s not a typo.

    One hit, 73 at-bats.

    .014

    The lone hit in this stretch was by Matt Olson of the Athletics on September 19 2020, the only hit Gausman allowed in six innings pitched that day.

    Other than that, Gausman’s yielded nothing other than the three batters who walked on a splitter.

    They were smart to take it. The pitch is extremely difficult to hit. Opposing batters have missed on 51% of their swings against Gausman’s splitter since the start of last season, the second-highest miss rate on the pitch (among the 20 pitchers who have thrown it most often).

    Want to see how nasty the pitch is?

    Those are strikeout pitches against Manny Machado, Trevor Story, Cody Bellinger, and Mike Moustakas, and the last one is entertaining because of how Buster Posey bluffed like he was looking for a high fastball.

    This season, Gausman has thrown 81 splitters. Opponents are 0-for-22 against them. Even on Tuesday, when Gausman allowed four runs to the Reds, Cincinnati went 0-for-8 against his splitter.

    The splitter is a tough pitch to throw. That pitch type typically represents between 1% and 2% of all pitches thrown. Gausman has thrown 363 since the start of the 2020 season. No one else is within 100 of him.

    Gausman has thrown it 29% of the time in that span. Dodgers swingman pitcher Tony Gonsolin (30%) is the only other pitcher who has thrown it more than 20% of the time among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.

    We’re guessing that Gausman doesn’t mind that the pitch is a baseball rarity. Right now, the results he’s getting with it are just about one-of-a kind.

    Lowest Opponents’ BA By Pitch Type
    Since August 9, 2020 (Minimum 200 pitches)

    PitcherTeamPitchOpp BA
    1. Kevin GausmanGiantsSplitter.014
    2. Devin WilliamsBrewersChangeup.050
    3. Dinelson LametPadresSlider.059
    4. Trevor BauerDodgersSlider.073
    5. Yu DarvishPadresSlider.083
    (Through April 15)
  • 2021 MLB Preview: NL West Defenses

    By MARK SIMON

    Leading up to Opening Day, we’re going to preview all 30 MLB teams and how they could fare defensively in 2021.

    A team’s hitting and pitching are easy to evaluate when previewing a season but defense is a little harder because of the nature of the numbers available to assess a player’s skill.

    But that sort of thing is our specialty and we’re happy to take our best shot at it.

    Today’s look is at the NL West.

    Diamondbacks

    Greatest Strengths: Shortstop

    Biggest Weaknesses: That they’re not the team of a few years ago.

    The Diamondbacks have a great defensive shortstop, Nick Ahmed, who has the most Runs Saved at the position the last three seasons, so they don’t have to worry any there. They have two defenders who were very good two seasons ago in first baseman Christian Walker and left fielder David Peralta, who won a Fielding Bible Award. Both Walker and Peralta were around MLB average in the shortened 2020 season.

    Beyond that, most of their players are average. There isn’t a position that would be a major concern, unless Asdrubal Cabrera’s playing every day becomes a necessity (he’s a below-average defender). But there isn’t one that would be a strength either. Their next-best defensive player is probably Ketel Marte, whether he’s at second base or in center field.

    Arizona finished first in the majors in Runs Saved in 2018 and third in 2019, but this team is something closer to middling.

    Dodgers

    Greatest Strengths: Right Field, Versatility

    Biggest Weaknesses: None

    The Dodgers finished tied for fourth in Defensive Runs Saved last season, but they lost one of the biggest reasons for that in second baseman Kiké Hernández, who left in free agency for the Red Sox. However, Gavin Lux has racked up 9 Runs Saved in 40 games there and should be a capable replacement if he wins the job.

    The team is highly secure in right field with Mookie Betts, who has won a Fielding Bible Award in four of the last five seasons. His four are the most of any right fielder in the 16-year history of the award. It should also be more than fine in center field, where Cody Bellinger has totaled 15 career Runs Saved in just over 1,000 innings.


    So long as the Dodgers have Austin Barnes on their roster, they know that they can upgrade from Will Smith’s average glove to Barnes’ excellent one at the end of any game they’re trying to close.

    Finding a Dodgers weakness is hard. Max Muncy, Corey Seager and Justin Turner are, at worst, average defenders. Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Edwin Ríos can play any number of spots, allowing the team to fill whatever hole it has in a given moment.

    Giants

    Greatest Strengths: Catcher, First Base, Right Field

    Biggest Weaknesses: Second Base, Left Field

    The Giants will welcome Buster Posey back behind the plate with open arms. That’s not a knock on Joey Bart so much as it is a tribute to Posey’s excellence. Posey has averaged 13 Runs Saved at catcher over the last 5 seasons. He’s still a complete catcher – an excellent pitch frame, pitch blocker and basestealing deterrent.

    Brandon Belt totaled 0 Runs Saved in 2020 but averaged 9 from 2017 to 2019 by covering a lot of ground and defending bunts well. We’d normally say you can count on him but offseason heel surgery has us wondering if he’ll be able to make plays as well as he previously did.

    Beyond that, Mike Yastrzemski is trying to establish himself as a mainstay. He’s saved 7 runs in just over 600 career innings in right field, which is a good start.

    The Giants don’t match up defensively with the other teams in the division though. Their middle infield rates below average, particularly at second base where the Giants options are Tommy La Stella, Donovan Solano, and Wilmer Flores. It’s possible that Evan Longoria could be quite good at third base, but he’s not even guaranteed being a regular starter.

    Left field could also be problematic. Alex Dickerson is slated for prominent playing time there. He cost the Giants 8 runs in 270 innings with his glove last season.

    Padres

    Greatest strengths: Third Base

    Biggest weaknesses: The uncertainty of second base

    The Padres are projected to hit and pitch at high levels. The defense is pegged to be a little above average, with upside if Fernando Tatis Jr. builds on the improvements he made between his rookie and sophomore seasons.

    Tatis had considerable trouble on his throws in 2019. He rushed a good number of them and that led to the worst Throwing Runs Saved split for any infielder in the majors (-13 Runs Saved). But in 2020, he upgraded to MLB average (0 Runs Saved). Any further such upgrade could produce a nice bump upwards in his overall defense.

    To Tatis’ right is a defensive standout in Manny Machado, who was bettered in Defensive Runs Saved at third base last season by only Nolan Arenado. To his left are some unknowns, depending on how second base is split between Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jurickson Profar.

    In the outfield, keep an eye on Trent Grisham, who handled about 500 innings well in centerfield, ranking fourth last season with 7 Runs Saved. His potential makes for another area of upside for this team’s defense.

    Rockies

    Greatest Strengths: Shortstop

    Biggest Weaknesses: Catcher

    With Nolan Arenado and Daniel Murphy gone, shortstop Trevor Story is the full-fledged captain of the infield. Some of the recent changes to our Defensive Runs Saved calculation gave Story’s 2019 season a boost to 21 Runs Saved, which ranked third among shortstops. His 6 last season tied for third most.

    Josh Fuentes will be hard-pressed to replace Arenado’s excellence at third base. We track Defensive Runs Saved for our team clients at the minor league level and can tell you that Fuentes’ numbers at the hot corner were excellent. He also looked good in a short stint at first base last season.

    Ryan McMahon is slated to play second base, where he’s saved 4 runs in about a season’s worth of games. A small sample size success will get tested if he ever ends up as their regular third baseman. McMahon hasn’t even played 300 innings at the position yet, but he’s already got 10 career Runs Saved. .

    With Tony Wolters gone, Elias Díaz will step into the lead catcher role and that could be a cause for concern. In 2019, Díaz cost the Pirates 21 runs with his defense, with a significant chunk of that due to poor pitch framing numbers. Díaz got limited time last season, finishing with 0 Runs Saved in 126 innings in his Rockies debut.

    The Coors Field outfield is always challenging to play. Charlie Blackmon (0 Runs Saved) held his own in right field last season. If his teammates can match that, perhaps the Rockies will be able to steal a few victories in what could be a very difficult season.

  • What have we learned about defense so far?

    By MARK SIMON

    Defense in total is better this season.

    Entering Monday, the MLB ground ball & bunt out rate was 75.5%. It has been 73.8% in 3 of the last 4 full seasons. Put that it terms of batting average (or reached base average) and it’s the equivalent of going from .262 to .245.

    Similarly, the out rates on balls hit in the air that stayed in the ballpark have gone from 65.5% overall (and 58% on those hit to the outfield) from 2017 to 2019 to 67.7% and 60.3% in 2020.

    We can put it in big bold type. This is THREE SEASONS of data versus 2.5 WEEKS. But it’s interesting because there are unusual blips, especially in July and August when hitters normally thrive.

    What can we tell from looking at some of the defensive numbers so far? Maybe we can’t predict anything, but we can give an assessment of what has happened and these are the things that stand out.

    The Dodgers are good, no surprise

    It was only a handful of days before the Dodgers moved to the top of the Defensive Runs Saved team leaderboards. This isn’t shocking. The Dodgers were the best defensive team in baseball last season, returned almost everyone, and added a defensive superstar in right fielder Mookie Betts.

    The Dodgers defense has saved 11 runs, the most in the NL and tied with the Twins for second-most in the majors behind the Indians (13).

    Three Dodgers have already saved at least 4 runs, including two of their most versatile players – Kike Hernandez (5), Chris Taylor (4), and Betts (4). Betts has already shown he can handle the right field corner at Dodgers Stadium in the same way he handled it at Fenway Park and that he has one of the best outfield arms in the game.

    Ground Ball Gobblers

    The Dodgers rank third in the majors in ground ball & bunt out rate at 81%. They trail the Cubs (85%) and the Indians (82%). The Indians lead the majors in Defensive Runs Saved. The Cubs would be right there if not for the struggles of Ian Happ in center field (-5 Runs Saved).

    The Cubs are among the teams that have significantly increased their rate of using defensive shifts. They ranked next-to-last in overall shift usage against balls in play in 2019 (5.5 per game) but are at 12.3 in 2020 (even with that increase, they still rank 23rd).

    Another team that has dramatically changed its infield defense approach is the Tigers who have increased their shift usage by 80% from 2019 and now rank second in shifts on balls in play per game (16.9).

    The Tigers’ ground ball out and bunt out rate in those shifts is nearly 85%. They’ve turned potential hits into humdrum ground outs.

    The Tigers ranked last in MLB in turning ground balls into outs last season at 70%. They’re at 78% overall in 2020.

    By the way, shifts are up 29% measuring the beginning of the season against 2019.

    The top five teams in shift usage are the Dodgers, Tigers, Twins, Mariners, and Braves.

    The bottom five are the Rockies, Mets, Padres, Yankees, and Athletics.

    Hunting Flies

    Looks like Byron Buxton is healthy again. He’s already got 4 Runs Saved in center field for the Twins, with a ledger that includes this running catch against the Padres.

    Not to be outdone, Kevin Kiermaier continues to do his thing in center field for the Rays.

    The two of them stand atop the centerfield leaderboard lead and figure to battle it out all season for both the AL Gold Glove and our Fielding Bible Award. The Twins head the leaderboard for Runs Saved by outfielders with the Rays and Orioles just behind them.

    On the other end of things, the Mets outfield has cost the team 9 runs this season, the worst total in MLB. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto share equally here, each having been dinged for 4 runs in center field and right field, respectively. They’re each one run off the MLB basement (shared by Happ and Rays catcher Mike Zunino).

    The Giants have some problems

    Did you see Hunter Pence lose a fly ball in the sky, a play that ended Johnny Cueto’s no-hit bid in the sixth inning on Saturday?

    That play was somewhat symbolic of the Giants’ season so far. They’ve committed 44 Defensive Misplays & Errors*, the most in the majors this season.

    Second baseman Donovan Solano has the most with 7, though he’s made up for that by hitting .455 with 14 RBI in 15 games. Catcher Tyler Heineman has 6, including 3 errors. Shortstop Brandon Crawford has five, though that’s partly offset by 5 Good Fielding Plays.

    The Rays and Royals are tied for second with 40 Misplays & Errors. They’ve got some things to be concerned about on that front too.

    * SIS tracks Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors. There are more than 60 categories of Defensive Misplays & Errors, including slipping and falling, overthrowing the intended target, and failing to complete a double play in a situation in which is was possible to record one. They also include wild pitches and passed balls.

    There are about 30 categories of Good Fielding Plays, which include variants of what many people know as Web Gems, but also include cutting off balls to prevent extra-base advancement, and turning a double play with a runner bearing down on you.  

  • Which MLB teams declined the most defensively?

    Yesterday, we looked at the teams that improved the most defensively from 2019 to 2020.

    I would describe most of the teams that declined defensively as doing so marginally. Very few big-ticket acquisitions were of below-average defensive players (Nick Castellanos to the Reds being the biggest exception). So that leaves us with just a few teams that might see a drop-off.

    Let’s look at the teams that we expect to decline the most.

    The Decliners

    Brewers

    When the Brewers let Yasmani Grandal go in free agency, they went for offense rather than defense in finding his replacement, Omar Narváez.  Narváez had an OPS + of 119 and 120 the last two seasons and should fit well into the Brewers lineup.

    But they’re going to have to figure out what to do about his defense. He’s cost his teams 32 runs with his catching defense last season, the worst Runs Saved for a catcher in the majors. Narváez struggles with pitch-framing (he sometimes takes pitches out of the strike zone with the way he catches them) and pitch blocking, which means that backup Manny Piña will likely see a lot of end-game time.

    The Brewers also have a new regular first baseman, with Justin Smoak replacing Eric Thames (who is now with the Nationals). Thames saved two runs there last season. Smoak cost the Blue Jays seven in about a half-season, the fourth straight year he’s posted a negative Defensive Runs Saved.

    Also with the Brewers, keep in mind that Keston Hiura is likely to play every day in his second season. Hiura can hit but showed last season that he had work to do on the defensive end. He had -5 Runs Saved in 81 games.

    Red Sox

    With the Red Sox, one player’s departure could make a big difference.

    Mookie Betts averaged 23 Runs Saved in right field the last four seasons, though he totaled “only” 17 and 16 the last two seasons (in which he averaged 126 games). His likely replacements are Kevin Pillar and Alex Verdugo, the latter of whom had a back injury last season.

    Pillar put up Betts-like numbers in center from 2015 to 2017, but those dipped the last two seasons. He took alright to right field with the Giants (two Runs Saved in a small 27-game sample), but he’s likely going to be unable to replicate what Betts did. If Verdugo is healthy and plays as well in the outfield as he did last season (combined 14 Runs Saved) the drop-off might not be as bad.

    Diamondbacks

    Let’s qualify this by saying that the Diamondbacks are working from a position of great strength given that they’ve ranked first and second in the majors in Runs Saved the last two seasons. But their outfield may take a hit this year with the departure of Dyson and the acquisitions of Marte and Kole Calhoun.

    Both Marte and Calhoun have good histories in the outfield, but their most recent performance at the positions they’re expected to play aren’t great. As noted in the Pirates section, Marte hasn’t handled center field like he handled left. He cost the Pirates nine runs there last season.

    Calhoun dropped from seven Runs Saved in 2018 to -1 in 2019. He may have been hurt by positioning.

    Per Baseball Savant, Calhoun played 13 feet shallower in his home park in 2019 as he did in 2018. That may explain why his numbers were excellent on shallow fly balls, but poor on deep ones (more likely to be doubles and triples). Keep an eye on how the Diamondbacks position Calhoun. If they figure that out, it may negate the issues he had last season.

    Giants

    The Giants have some early issues with two of their top defensive players, first baseman Brandon Belt and third baseman Evan Longoria, injured. But this is more about catcher where Buster Posey’s departure looms large. Posey saved 14 runs at catcher last season and has saved at least 10 runs in four of the last five seasons.

    The Giants’ catching situation is a massive unknown right now, with Rob Brantly, Tyler Heineman and Chadwick Tromp the likely placeholders until the team deems top prospect Joey Bart ready to go. But we do feel pretty safe in saying that none are likely to be as good as Posey is (Brantly has rated well below-average in the past) and none of them are likely to be close to his level.

  • New baseball podcast: Kevin Pillar talks about sliding, diving, and jumping catches

    LISTEN HERE

    This week’s episode of the SIS Baseball Podcast highlights defensive excellence in the Bay Area.

    Senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) points out how well Chad Pinder has played recently, with help from Oakland Athletics coach Ryan Christenson (1:04).

    Then, Mark talks to San Francisco Giants outfielder Kevin Pillar (@KPILLAR4). They discuss the challenges of making sliding, diving, and jumping catches including dealing with injuries (3:00), how Pillar learned to play that way (5:13), what being the leader in those kinds of catches says about a player (10:00), learning a ballpark (11:02), how much he uses scouting information (13:24), and what advice he would give to kids who want to play defense like him (15:19).

    Mark is then joined by research associate Andrew Kyne (@Andrew_Kyne) and intern Jon Becker (@jonbecker_). They review Pillar’s comments (18:29), discuss a pitcher who changed approach upon joining a new team (20:56), answer a listener question about the Mount Rushmore of stats (22:45), preview Andrew’s presentation at Saberseminar (24:07) and challenge listeners to figure out the Ridiculous Stats of the Day (25:21).