Introduction

While many crave all the NFL Draft Team Grades that publications put out the day after the draft, including us on both accounts, there are a lot of unknowns at that point. Of course, we all have our own NFL Draft prospect rankings heading into that weekend, but those players have yet to play a snap in the NFL. So, how can we really grade a team’s draft class if those players haven’t yet stepped onto an NFL field?

It usually takes at least three years to see how well a draft class turned out. While said publications, including us, don’t want to wait three years before putting out their grades on a draft class, we do both. This is the time that teams must decide on 5th-year options for their 1st Round picks. Additionally, this gives these players a rookie season and two full years after that to get settled in and playing time under their belt.

Three years ago, Sports Info Solutions published the 3rd edition of The SIS Football Rookie Handbook. After the 2021 NFL Draft, we, just as many others, posted our NFL Draft Team Grades, which can be seen here. It’s worth noting we don’t give out letter grades like most. We rank the teams from 1 to 32 in terms of how much talent they got as an entire class.

Just as I did last year, in the article you can see here, I’ve developed a system to evaluate the draft classes using Total Points relative to position as the foundation. Three seasons have now gone by since the 2021 NFL Draft. So, let’s use that to truly see how each team did with getting value from its selections and draft class as a whole.

Our TLDR Top Things To Know

1. We ranked the Lions No. 1 in our 2021 post-draft ranking. Three years later the Chiefs rank No. 1 according to our stat for assessing it, Total Points Score (TP Score), followed by the Lions, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Bears.
2.  The Rams ranked last both in our original rankings in 2021 and in TP Score three years later.
3. The Jaguars, Broncos, and Jets accrued the most Total Points from their draft classes

How much value did teams get?

Let’s take a look at how we ranked teams after the 2021 NFL Draft and then who got the most and least value. See the Appendix below to see how all 32 teams ranked in our 2021 rankings and in TP Score.

Here are the teams we ranked at the top immediately following the draft back in 2021. To see our scouting grading scale, check out our NFL Draft site.

TP Score will be defined below, but here are the top 5 teams based on how much value they received from their draft class.

In our post-draft rankings in 2021, we tabbed the Lions as the No. 1 draft class, and they just got edged out by the Chiefs for No. 1 three years later. In Brad Holmes’ first draft with the Lions, he was able to draft two of the top 10 players in Total Points over the last three years: Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown, with both signing contract extensions just before the Draft.

We also had the Jaguars and Dolphins in our top 5 who also ended up there after three seasons. Trevor Lawrence has been a mixed bag, but when he’s looked good, he’s been really good, amassing the most Total Points in the draft class. Additionally, Tyson Campbell’s 116 Total Points is the 6th-most. The Dolphins nailed their first four picks in Jaylen Waddle (59 Total Points), Jaelan Phillips (80), Jevon Holland (91), and Liam Eichenberg (61).

As for the Chiefs, we were high on Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith, grading them as 6.6 or 6.7 players, but they even surpassed those expectations, as we ranked them 21st post-draft. Between the three of them, they totaled 263 Total Points and would’ve ranked 10th among full teams themselves. While Joshua Kaindoh and Cornell Powell didn’t contribute much, they still hit on four of their six picks, which is a great percentage.

The Bears round out the top 5 of TP Score, and we originally ranked them 16th immediately following the 2021 Draft. Justin Fields finally started to turn the corner, though he was traded to Pittsburgh this offseason. We were also high on Teven Jenkins, but the other five members of their class graded out between a 5.9 and 6.3 for us. We felt they would all contribute, but most, especially Larry Borom and Khalil Herbert, exceeded our expectations.

Conversely, here are the bottom 5 teams from our 2021 rankings.

Based on TP Score, here are the worst teams in terms of getting value from their 2021 draft picks.

The big bullseye here was the Rams. We were very low on their draft class initially, and they haven’t done anything to disprove that. While we admit omitting Ernest Jones from the book was a big miss on our part, he garnered 75 of their 114 Total Points from the entire class. He and Ben Skowronek were the only picks to play above average relative to their position among the draft class.

While we ranked the Seahawks (26th) and Vikings (23rd) low initially, we missed on the Giants (12th) and Panthers (9th).

Kadarius Toney and Azeez Ojulari have been above-average players, but Aaron Robinson and Rodarius Williams (SIS No. 5 CB) have been disappointing in New York. As for Carolina, aside from their three above-average players (Jaycee Horn, Brady Christensen, and Tommy Tremble), six of their eight other picks we felt were 6.4s or better, but they’ve only combined for a total of 26 Total Points.

Determining Total Points Score

In case you missed last year’s article, let’s explain the process of creating each team’s TP Score. When looking back to see how good or bad a specific draft class was, there are two main points to detect:

1. How productive were the draft picks on the field?
2. How much talent did the team draft relative to the amount of picks they made? 

As in: Did they hit on one player or did they hit on multiple players?

To determine the value of the draft classes, I used Total Points, our flagship player value stat, from across the last three seasons. However, for those of you who are familiar with Total Points, it gives a lot of extra weight to quarterbacks. With that said, Trevor Lawrence alone would have had the 14th best draft class with his 232 Total Points if we just used raw Total Points.

While there is a reason we weigh quarterbacks so much more compared to other positions (they are pretty important), using that raw number in this sense isn’t going to make for a perfect match. While getting your franchise quarterback is a huge win, it doesn’t automatically give you a top class. This year, Jacksonville ended up with the 3rd-highest TP Score, and I think most would agree they had a good class, but not the best.

Now, answering question 2 takes into account how well a team drafted throughout the entirety of the draft class. I found the average Total Points per player from the 2021 class at each position, including UDFAs who have taken at least one offensive or defensive snap, since they were also available to be selected.

The positional averages are shown in the table below.

The TP Score, as referenced earlier, is what’s used to rank the teams. It is calculated as follows:

1. Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
2. Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
3. Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
4. Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick

In these 4 steps, we are essentially answering how productive the draft class was and how many picks were “hits”. Let’s run through an example using our No. 1 team, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Here is their draft class:

Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class

300

Divide that number by the number of selections the team had

300 Total Points divided by 6 selections equals 50.00

Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position

Bolton, Humphrey, Gray, and Smith all accumulated a Total Points number that was above average compared to their position groups

50.00 times 66.7% (4 out of 6) equals 33.33

Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick

50.00 plus 33.33 equals 83.33, which is their TP Score

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So, to summarize, we took the team’s Total Points gained from these players, dispersed it throughout the entire class and then gave a bump based on how many above-average players they drafted.

Now that we know how the teams ranked and how the TP Score is calculated, let’s dive into some of the other details.

Other Key Takeaways

– No teams hit on at least 75% of their picks that year. At least two teams did that in each of the past two seasons, but none did with this class. However, the Bears and Lions went 5-of-7 (71%), the Chiefs went 4-of-6 (67%), and the Jets went 6-of-10 (60%). Levi Onwuzurike of the Lions came less than a half-point short of the DT average or he would’ve given Detroit a sixth hit and the No. 1 class.

– The Jets’ six hits were the most of any team. They ranked 7th in TP Score. They hit on six of their first seven picks, getting at least 30 Total Points from each of them, though three of them have played significant snaps for other teams. Zach Wilson has been traded to Denver and hasn’t been anything like what Jets fans hoped, but he did sneak into being an above-average player in what was a brutal quarterback class.

– Every team drafted at least one player who has played above the positional average compared to the rest of the draft class. However, the Saints (Payton Turner), Raiders (Alex Leatherwood), 49ers (Trey Lance), Titans (Caleb Farley), Seahawks (Dee Eskridge), Rams (Tutu Atwell), and Texans (Davis Mills) were the only teams whose first draft selection wasn’t an above-average player. This is the second year in a row that’s been the case for Las Vegas, Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Houston.

– The three teams with the most raw Total Points are the Jaguars (467), Broncos (388), and Jets (360). Jacksonville leading the way isn’t a surprise given how valuable Trevor Lawrence has been. Denver and New York ranked No. 6 and No. 7 in TP Score, as well. We detailed the Jets already, so for the Broncos, they hit a massive home run with Patrick Surtain II, who has accumulated 161 Total Points, 2nd-most in the class behind Lawrence.

– The Seahawks (45), Giants (91), and Rams (114) totaled the least amount of Total Points from their 2021 draft class. Seattle didn’t have a pick in Round 1 and had only three picks total. They missed with their first selection Dee Eskridge in Round 2. Their only hit was Tre Brown in the 4th Round, as he’s accumulated 35 of their 45 Total Points.

– Of the three first-rounders who weren’t above-average players (not including Alex Leatherwood), it’s no surprise none of them got their 5th-year Option picked up. Of the 16 players whose options were picked up, minus those who received extensions, the only one who didn’t rank in the top 8 of their position group among the class was Alijah Vera-Tucker. His 48 Total Points placed him 16th among the offensive linemen.

– Now that we’re three years into this, we can begin to take a broader look across seasons. 

The Chiefs have the highest average TP Score across the last three seasons with 65.48, nearly 10 points higher than the Jaguars in 2nd. Check out the entire list in the Appendix.

– Conversely, the Rams are the only team with an average ranking in the bottom 8, and they also rank dead last with an average TP Score of just 23.58. As a whole, this does make some sense. They haven’t made a 1st-Round pick in any of these seasons, so it’s likely they aren’t going to get a high-end impact player, but it’s telling that they’ve struggled to find much value in the later rounds of drafts.

– Now the real question is how do our initial rankings compare to those numbers? 

The Chiefs have had the highest average TP Score in three years, but we’ve given them the 2nd-worst cumulative ranking post-draft. Omitting L’Jarius Snead in 2020 played into that, but that’s clearly the biggest miss on our part. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve been able to take players who fit their scheme perfectly and make them work when they may not elsewhere.

Additionally, our average top 10 post-draft teams who also have an average TP Score rank in the top 10 include the Bengals, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Broncos. Conversely, matches in the bottom 10 include the Colts, Seahawks, and Vikings. Teams we match in the middle 12 include the Titans, Cowboys, and Jets.

While we’ve been way too low on the Chiefs post-draft each year, conversely, we’ve been way too high on the Ravens. We’ve averaged giving them the 5th-best (tied) class across the three seasons immediately after the draft, but they have just the 25th-best TP Score.

How do our Initial Grades Compare?

44% (14/32) of our initial ranks were in the correct half, meaning a team we ranked between 1 and 16 or 17 and 32 was ultimately in that tier, which is a dip from the last two seasons. However, we hit 3 of the top 5 and the last-ranked Rams. Additionally, 17 of the teams were only a single-digit difference from post-draft to now.

The biggest differences in our initial grades and these final rankings were the Chiefs (20 spots), Saints (20 spots), and the Panthers (20 spots). We had Kansas City and New Orleans fairly low post-draft and we were high on Carolina. The Saints and Panthers flip-flopped, as we ranked the Saints 29th initially and they ended up 9th, whereas the Panthers were initially ranked 9th and ended up 29th. The 20-spot difference as the biggest difference is an improvement over previous years.

For New Orleans, even with Payton Turner, who we felt was a versatile backup with a 6.2 grade, not working out, Pete Werner and Paulson Adebo have been outstanding and exceeded our initial grades. We graded them as a 6.2 and 6.4, respectively.

Some players we unfortunately omitted from the Handbook were Brandon Stephens, Ernest Jones, and Dan Moore Jr. Stephens’ 94 Total Points is 4th-most among CBs in the class and just outside the top 10 overall. Jones and Moore each have accumulated 75 and 68 Total Points, respectively.

What were some of our biggest misses elsewhere? All three players selected in Round 3 that we didn’t feature in the book have been big contributors. That includes Stephens, Jones, and Milton Williams. Additionally, while we felt Tyson Campbell (6.5 grade, SIS No. 12 CB) and Paulson Adebo (6.4 grade, SIS No. 15 CB) would be No. 3 CBs by Year 2, which is a strong role given today’s NFL, they’ve outperformed those grades, ranking No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, among CBs in the class and were top 6 in Total Points overall.

Let’s take a look at some of our biggest wins. 

Excluding Dan Moore Jr., the other five players selected in Round 4 that we didn’t feature in the book (Kene Nwangwu, Zech McPhearson, Janarius Robinson, Buddy Johnson, and Jacob Harris), have combined for -1 Total Point.

Anthony Schwartz was our 36th-ranked WR and was drafted in the 3rd Round, but has -5 Total Points in 25 games, worst among all WRs in the class. Three other players drafted in the 4th Round ranked low on our boards and have struggled. Josh Ball (SIS No. 20 OT) has -1 Total Point (worst among OL). Jordan Smith (SIS No. 26 ED) has -1 Total Point (worst among DE/EDGE). Joshua Kaindoh was our last-ranked EDGE (No. 31) and has 0 Total Points, only played in three games, and is no longer on the team.

The table below shows the top Total Points earners across the past three seasons from the draft class and how we graded and ranked them in the Handbook pre-draft.

As mentioned before, we were a bit low on Adebo and Campbell. We graded Parsons as a Will linebacker with some pass-rush upside, but had no idea the impact he’d eventually make in the NFL. It’s easy to see why Detroit and Jacksonville ranked in our top 3 in TP Score, and top 4 post-draft, as each have two players on this list.

Conclusion

Nobody really knows how a draft class is going to turn out immediately after the draft, yet it still makes sense to grade and rank the teams based on player grades for an initial reaction. 

Post-draft grades are great in a sense, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Once three years go by and we’ve seen what these players have done in the NFL, we can get a better sense of how good the team drafted.

These rankings are all about finding which teams drafted the best draft class as a whole, not just who got the best player. While there are some players who didn’t play for the team that drafted them for the entirety of the past three seasons, that wasn’t taken into account since those decisions came after the initial drafting of these players, which is what this is based on. 

An example of that from this class is Jason Pinnock, who was drafted by the Jets and has 54 Total Points, but played only 12 games and about 200 snaps for them in 2021 before playing 30 games and nearly 1,500 snaps across the past two seasons for the Giants.

It’s not a perfect science, but it does a good job at pulling player value and seeing how well teams drafted as a whole class relative to the amount of selections they were afforded.

Three years later, the comparison between our initial rankings and these rankings aren’t terrible for Year 3 (in both our grading and our scouting process). We made some improvements from Year 2 to Year 3, like adding 34 more players to the Handbook and featuring 19 (6%) more who were drafted. Though, we hope this article next year takes a large positive swing as we went into Year 4 in the 2022 draft cycle and the first year with our new website. As with everything we do here, we hope this improves year over year and can look back and say we kept getting better every day.

Appendix

2021 SIS Post-Draft Rankings based on the SIS Football Rookie Handbook

TP Rank based on TP Score and how much value each team got from their draft picks over the last three seasons

Average TP Score and ranking across all three seasons (the 2019-2021 draft classes after their first three seasons in 2022-2024)