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Author: Brandon Tew

  • MLB Draft Scouting Report: Chase Burns

    MLB Draft Scouting Report: Chase Burns

    You can find all our MLB Draft scouting reports here.

    Photo: Bryan Lynn/Icon SportsWire

    Skill Grade
    Fastball 65
    Slider 70
    Curveball 55
    Changeup 55
    Control 50
    Future Value 60

    Name: Chase Burns

    College: Wake Forest University

    Bio: R/R 6-3, 210 lbs.

    DOB: 01/16/2003

    Written by Brandon Tew

    Analysis:

    Chase Burns is an electrifying pitching talent who exudes emotion and energy on the mound coupled with gaudy stuff that puts him in a classification of must-watch. He’s a big presence on the mound, throwing hard fastballs touching 100 mph and a slider that elicits whiffs at a high clip.

    College Career: 

    Chase Burns started his collegiate career at the University of Tennessee where he shined at times during his freshman and sophomore years. However; an up-and-down end to his time in Knoxville and a move to the bullpen caused him to hit the transfer portal. 

    Burns decided upon Wake Forest as his next destination. Their famous pitching lab was a lure in hopes of stepping up his game during his junior season. He did not disappoint, posting one of the best pitching seasons in the country. The ACC Pitcher of the Year posted great numbers throughout the season and during the beginning of his campaign looked nearly unhittable at times.

    Year ERA IP K% BB% K-BB%
    2022 2.91 80.1 31.2 7.6 23.6
    2023 4.25 72.0 38.4 7.4 31
    2024 2.70 100.0 48.8 7.7 41.1

    Yes you read that right. Burns led the country with a 48.8% strikeout rate this season striking out 191 hitters in 100 innings. This put him a fraction ahead of the other top arm in this draft class, Hagen Smith, who had a 48.6% strikeout rate.

    Burns makes batters look foolish at the plate. He had three pitches in the 90th percentile in terms of Whiff% this season. His slider is a hellacious pitch that he can manipulate the shape on. He pairs that with a downer curveball that he can bury in the dirt. His four-seam fastball has exceptional ride and high velocity, which makes it a menacing pitch to face.

    Pitching Mechanics:

    Burns starts his windup with his body slightly turned at an angle towards the third base dugout with his back foot more turned and his front foot at a 45-degree angle and his glove in front of his belt. His initial move is a tiny step toward first and minuscule toe taps with his rubber foot for rhythm. 

    Burns then goes into his leg lift with an aggressive drift forward for momentum. His left knee stops at peak height around his chest with his foot turned slightly toward second base, creating a closed front side in a stacked position.

    As he enters the hinge phase he drops his body, shifting his weight and breaking his hands as his arm glides down to behind his right knee. He then rides down the mound with his leg kicking out, staying in that stacked position. He delays the rotation of his hips until a few moments before the foot strike, while also creating a stretch by keeping his chest back and getting upright. 

    He has an extreme trunk tilt to create a high arm slot, but he does a great job of not leaking energy to get to that position. Of note, his arm slot was a little higher this season for Wake Forest because of his more upright posture and more tilt in his delivery. 

    At foot strike his arm is on time and at a 90-degree angle. As he comes into his lead leg block he drives energy through his leg up his body as he whips his arm through.

    It’s a LOT of hip-shoulder separation creating a lot of energy into ball release. To finish the delivery his right leg swings through – even at times straightening out – as he recoils his arm with an athletic finish. 

    You can tell by the way Burns moves on the mound that he is an explosive athlete who gets into outlier positions, which translates into explosive stuff. He will lift his back foot off the ground before ball release. Sometimes it affects his command of pitches if he overextends his back leg too much and loses timing in his body.

    Arsenal:

    Fastball: 

    Burns fastball is a hard cut-ride pitch with minimal arm-side movement. He is a supinator who throws from a high slot and gets the ball to explode through the top of the zone. The pitch is thrown hard with an average velocity of 98 mph but he has touched 102 mph, with multiple 101s and 100s this season from him. 

    The biggest wart for Burns is the amount of slug he allows on the pitch. 

    Against left-handed hitters it can get crushed. His opponents slugging percentage was much higher versus lefties than righties. Burns’ four-seam works best up in the zone where he can take advantage of the riding action and slight cut. For lefties, Burns’ fastball might be seen well by hitters out of his hand because of the high arm slot.

    Burns is also super aggressive with his locations. Wake Forest would have the catcher sit ‘middle’ often and he would throw the pitch in the middle of the zone a lot. His command of the fastball is something to improve in pro ball. The pitch is still terrific in shape and velocity, and improved command with better locations should help minimize hard contact.

    Slider:

    Burns’ slider is the whiff monster that you don’t want to see behind your closet door. The pitch is nightmare fuel for batters and makes all kinds of hitters look silly at the plate. It has a plus shape, but what stands out the most is Burns’ manipulation of it. 

    Against left-handed hitters, he can throw more of a pure gyro slider below the zone. Pitch tracking will blend both the curve and slider but most of the season Wake Forest would use traditional signs for Burns. When the catcher put down three fingers, the slider could get as low as 85 mph with depth and as high as 92 mph and more horizontal.

    He appears to be blending shapes with what he possibly threw at Tennesee to what works best against left-handed hitters spinning the ball below the barrel and into the dirt for chase.

    Here’s a sampling of some sliders he threw to both lefties and righties: 

     

    Chase Burns, Wicked Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/hD9xP6zuUd

    — Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 5, 2022

    The fact he can throw a pitch with more sweep to right-handed hitters while getting more on top and ripping down on the ball to throw a more vertical gyro pitch to lefties makes it a demolisher against both handedness.

    Curveball:

    Burns’ curveball is a legitimate hammer of a breaking ball, living in the 80-84 mph range. The pitch is a nice change of pace from the rest of his arsenal but he can throw the pitch harder when he wants. He will throw it for an occasional strike stealer but for the most part, he’s trying to bury the pitch on top of the plate.

    When Burns is pumping fastballs by you, the curve – working out of the same tunnel – is hard to lay off. He will throw the pitch to both right- and left-handed hitters but since the slider is so nasty, the curveball just plays off of it as a different shape. But it’s really more of a different spin and velocity look.

    When Burns gets into pro ball he could play with the shape of the curveball but in its present form it will be a nice above-average pitch to throw as a wrinkle. He gets some gnarly swings at it.

    Changeup:

    Burns possesses an above-average changeup that he throws sparingly. The pitch has a decent separation from his fastball velocity-wise, sitting around 90 mph. He doesn’t make the pitch fade into the lower part of the zone and below it for swings.

    Instead, he zones the pitch, and it will just stay firm in the zone. It Induces weak contact over whiffs. Playing around with a different changeup, even experimenting with a splitter out of his high slot like Trey Yesavage, might be worth trying out. But there’s enough currently as a fourth pitch to manufacture good results. He has some feel for it.

    Energy and Demeanor:

    When talking about Burns you can’t leave out the raw emotion he exhibits on the mound throughout a game. Pitching with pent-up energy and competitiveness, Burns will let you know when he’s excited about a pitch or big strikeout.

    Burns shows so much emotion on the mound to where you can’t take your eyes off of him. He’s simply a lightning rod of energy each time he pitches.

    Projection:

    Chase Burns is an electrifying righty with traits and tools that teams want. He’s nowhere near a finished product but he has frontline rotation stuff. Couple that with extreme competitiveness and you have yourself a potential all-star.

    Burns has an excellent feel for spin while using his athleticism on the mound to obliterate the zone with high-velocity pitches. If he can get his command to a decent level he will be a true force on the mound for whatever team drafts him.

    MLB Comp: Dylan Cease

  • MLB Draft Scouting Report: Vance Honeycutt

    MLB Draft Scouting Report: Vance Honeycutt

    You can find all our MLB Draft scouting reports here.

    Photo: David Jensen/Icon Sportswire

    Name: Vance Honeycutt

    College: University of North Carolina

    Bio: R/R 6-3, 205 lbs.

    DOB: 05/17/2003

    Skill Grade
    Hit 45
    Power 60
    Run 70
    Arm 55
    Field 70
    Future Value 60

    Written by Brandon Tew

    Analysis:

    Vance Honeycutt is the most exciting and most volatile player in the country. He’s one of the best athletes in the draft. He possesses the best physical tools with a combo of speed and strength that is hard to find. He’s built like an NFL safety and runs like a deer with long strides.

    Honeycutt put his supreme athleticism on display for three seasons in Chapel Hill and impacted games in multiple ways. Ultimately, Honeycutt’s biggest flaw is his inconsistency as a hitter which will decide his future in pro ball.

    College Career: 

    The career home run king for the Tar Heels mashed 65 dingers which he paired with 76 stolen bases, becoming the first Division I player in the career 60-70 club. 

    He strikes out too often (with a 26.5% career strikeout rate), but in 2024 he posted a slash line of .318/.410/.714.

    In the table below, you can see the dichotomy of Honeycutt who in 2024 decided to revert to his pulling and lifting ways to increase production. However, this upped his strikeout rate and his aggressiveness led to his lowest walk rate in college.

    Year HR SB WRC+ OPS K% BB%
    2024 28 28 151 1.124 27.5% 11.9%
    2023 12 19 121 .910 20.4% 19.6%
    2022 25 29 146 1.082 29.7% 13.5%

    Honeycutt capped off his North Carolina career with an absolute heater of a run. He put on an aircraft carrier performance for the Tar Heels, accounting for 38% of their offense in the NCAA tournament. His launching 6 big flies during the postseason run is the definition of clutch.

    Batting Stance:

    Honeycutt starts his stance with his feet and weight distributed in a comfortable position with his front foot a smidge outside of his left shoulder. As the pitcher breaks his hands, Honeycutt starts his leg lift, a simple medium-height lift that allows him to shift his weight into his back hip as he stacks his lower half.

    At the peak of his leg kick, Honeycutt moves his hands back, turning his front shoulder closed and shifting his front foot to show the bottom of his cleat. Moving forward he creates a stretch in his swing and extends his front arm back with his barrel snapping into an almost 45-degree angle behind his head.

    He brings his barrel through with quick hand speed that translates to the bat as he stops the momentum in his swing on his front leg decelerating his swing and momentum after contact

    At times, there is extra movement in Honeycutt’s swing with his lower half and hands not being fully synced. When he is on time with a good hand path, he impacts baseball as well as any other prospect. He also can produce damage in different parts of the zone but loves to get his hands extended.

    Approach:

    Here’s Honeycutt explaining his approach at the plate: 



    As a hitter, Honeycutt tries to get his “A Swing” off as much as he can, pulling and lifting the ball but can adjust and manipulate or delay his swing to stay on breaking pitches. 

    His walk-off against Virginia in the College World Series is a great at-bat as he stays on this slider after getting doubled up on the pitch. He is a little out in front but does well to get his bat to this ball and hook it into left field.

    Honeycutt is a definite guess-hitter which leads to some terrible-looking swings and non-competitive at-bats. His low swing percentage numbers both in and out of the zone suggest he’s looking for specific pitches early in at-bats. 

    His chase and whiff percentages especially on breaking balls further illustrate this point. Since Honeycutt is aggressive he will swing at spin hard. In certain at-bats, Honeycutt can look overmatched or in-between on his decisions, but he can deposit a ball over the fence at any point in a game if given a mistake pitch.

    Honeycutt crushes these mistake pitches, on both badly located fastballs and hanging changeups or breaking balls. He also pulls the ball a lot. By keeping the ball off the ground, the loft in his swing takes full advantage of his plus power on bad pitches.

    The biggest strides Honeycutt must make in his offensive profile is limiting swings and misses while still producing power. Improvement will come if his spin recognition improves and he stays in good-hitter counts in pro ball.

    In 2023, Honeycutt was getting pitched around at points and was a much more patient hitter in the box taking a high amount of walks (19.6% rate) and cutting his  strikeout percentage to 20.4%.

    However; a team might decide that the best version of Honeycutt generates a threat from a power standpoint even if it comes with swing and miss. Honeycutt provides hard contact when he squares the ball up and drives the ball from foul pole to foul pole. 

    We track college baseball data across Division I, charting as many games as we can. That allows us to use what we call our “Synthetic Statcast” tool to calculate some statistics that you normally wouldn’t be able to get. Here’s where Honeycutt ranks in Hard-Hit Rate and Barrel Rate among players in major conferences

    Hard Hit % Barrel %
    49.4% (97th) 12.8% (93rd)

    Defense: 

    Honeycutt is the best defender in college baseball. He won the Rawlings Gold Glove for Division I outfield last year and led the college center fielders we tracked with 7 Runs Saved in 2024. He’s a converted infielder who spent a couple of days on the dirt in Chapel Hill before moving to the outfield and then began patrolling centerfield a short time after that.

    There’s a natural ease at which Honeycutt moves and tracks the baseball. Not many base hits fall when Honeycutt is roaming in center and his ball-tracking skills have improved with time. His superb jumps and closing speed allow him to catch balls that other center fielders don’t come close to.

    Here’s a video of some of the outstanding plays Honeycutt made in his freshman and sophomore seasons.

    Add to it, this remarkable diving catch where he comes zooming into the right-center gap.

    And one more of him going back on this missile by Seaver King.

    Using our “Defensive Misplays” stat that we track for every game we chart throughout the season, we can take a closer look at what types of misplays each fielder is making. We define defensive misplays as “any play on which the fielder surrenders a base advance or the opportunity to make an out when a better play would have gotten the out or prevented the advancement.”

    We also track “Good Fielding Plays” where a fielder prevents an advance or records an unexpected out. He’s an excellent fielder and sometimes will dive or try to make plays that no one else can, and these numbers reflect that. Here’s a breakdown of Honeycutt’s last two seasons. 

    GFP Fly ball GFP Hr Robbery GFP OF Assist DM on Throw or Allowing Advance DM For Dropped Fly Ball or Bad Route
    10 2 3 9 3

    Honeycutt had a combined 15 Good Fielding Plays and 12 Defensive Misplays of those types. By comparison, Enrique Bradfield Jr., an Orioles first-round pick last year had 11 Good Plays and 7 Misplays in the games we tracked for him last season. So Honeycutt may be a little more high-risk, high-reward than Bradfield, who currently leads minor league center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved.

    Honeycutt uses his excellent timing, jumps, route efficiency, athleticism, as well as, a plus arm to make what feels like every play. With Gold Glove defense in center field that should take him to the big leagues at some point even if he doesn’t consistently hit.

    Projection:

    As an uber-athletic center fielder, Vance Honeycutt has star potential and on any given day can be the best player on the field. Impacting the game with his power, speed, and defense. When it comes down to it when he’s locked in his hit tool is a 50 and other days he might look bad with it showing more 40 and below. 

    His tools and raw talent are something to behold and his propensity to come up big in the big moments makes me think he can be a good enough hitter to thrive at the next level. 

    MLB Comp: Trea Turner production and speed. (Brenton Doyle with more power)

  • NPB Scouting Report: Kona Takahashi

    NPB Scouting Report: Kona Takahashi

    Kona Takahashi put up the best two seasons of his nine-year NPB career in 2022 and 2023. These seasons vaulted him into the conversation of the next Japanese pitchers primed to move stateside. After the Seibu Lions denied his off-season request to be posted, he will assuredly be posted come the winter of 2024 if he puts up another productive season at age 27.

    While Takahashi doesn’t post the strikeout numbers of other top pitchers in NPB, he prevents runs as well as nearly anyone. And in the lower run-scoring environment, he has thrived as a pitcher who challenges hitters with his offspeed and breaking pitches in the zone.

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks K-BB%
    2022 175.2 2.20 128 51 10.9 %
    2023 155.0 2.21 120 47 11.6 %

    Why he’s good

    Takahashi throws enough strikes to pepper the zone and minimize walks with around a 7% BB rate the last two seasons. In 2023, he had a 63% strike rate working the ball in and out against hitters to stretch the plate. 

    He does not give in when behind in the count, especially later in the year when he went to his slider and splitter in 2-1 and 2-0 counts. Here’s a splitter to Kensuke Kondoh to get back into the at-bat when down 2-0.

    via GIPHY

    Mechanical changes and velocity increase

    After training at Driveline before the 2023 season, Takahashi cleaned up his mechanics with his arm action and lead leg block. He started throwing harder, sitting around 93 mph on his fastball instead of 91 mph, and touched the upper 90s deep into games.

    At times especially in July when he threw back-to-back shutouts, he threw all of his pitchers harder. Getting better as the game went on, fueled by adrenaline, and seeing the finish line, he ripped this 87 mph slider for a sword.

    While his fastball garnered modest whiff rates at about 11% last season, his splitter and slider became real weapons with a solid whiff rate of around 32% on both of the pitches last season. He mixed those pitches in during two-strike counts when he wasn’t trying to sneak a fastball underneath the hands of a batter.

    via GIPHY

    The Arsenal (2023 usage and Average Velocity)

    Fastball  39 %  93.3 mph 

    Juicing a couple of clicks out of his fastball last season elevated his game and helped his slider and splitter perform better. With above-average command of the pitch, he tries to stay out of the middle of the zone. 

    He also doesn’t lean on fastball usage like most Japanese pitchers. He might throw any of his pitches to start an at-bat and use the fastball more as a surprise. 

    Here is another example of bringing the ball back over the plate armside as he throws this four-seam at 95.6 mph to get the freeze and finish the game:

    via GIPHY

    The four-seam has decent run and he uses the horizontal movement to his advantage both in looking for strikes but also missing barrels moreso than creating the swing and miss. He can dial up the fastball high in the zone when needed and it performs best when sequenced with his other pitches.

    via GIPHY

    Splitter 25%   87.5 mph

    Takahashi’s splitter is his next best pitch as he not only gets chases on it but also limits damage with a .460 OPS against, and a .161 opponents’ batting average in 2023. His grip works both seams with his fingertips and as he pronates, creating either a slight dip to the pitch as it moves arm side or a sharper dive away from hitters. 

    He can steal a strike against batters in the zone but the pitch is at its absolute best when it’s darting towards the dirt. Here’s an at-bat against Kondoh, the best pure hitter in NPB. Takahashi uses two different looks at his splitter to get the swinging strikeout.

    via GIPHY

    The pitch had an outrageous 78% ground ball rate last season, so even when batters make contact they just pound it into the dirt. This means it’s hard to get singles up the middle even on turf fields. Takahashi uses the defense to his advantage and will keep the splitter at the bottom of the zone to get ground balls.

    Slider 20% 82.8 mph    Slurve 3.4% 79 mph

    Takahashi has two slider variations, one that’s more horizontal and gyro spin-based that he will use at any point to get a strike. Along with what I would classify as a slurve with some horizontal sweep but a lot of depth to it at a lower velocity.

    Slider:

    via GIPHY

    Slurve: 

    via GIPHY

    The slight variation is enough to call it two separate pitches. He also uses two separate signs for both pitches as well. He will use the slurve as a wrinkle but heavily leans on the slider in situations where he needs a strike. He also throws the slider at his highest strike rate with a 67.5% rate last season. 

    The velocity of the pitch will fluctuate, but when he wants he can rip some gnarly sliders with higher-end velocity and sweep. He makes the pitch a bat-misser and weak-contact merchant. 

    Cutter 11%    88 mph 

    Takahashi’s cutter is an intriguing pitch he uses to get himself back into count leverage and as a putaway pitch at times. He will bury the pitch on the hands of left-handed hitters in a more traditional sense but will also try to dot the pitch away from right-handed hitters, glove side. 

    There’s enough variance from his slider that the pitch has more carry and stays vertical along with the velocity difference. However, there are times that he will have the pitch leak back over the plate, arm side.

    via GIPHY

    The cutter is a pitch that Takahashi will throw with enough confidence and conviction that he might ride the pitch for a few innings, even more than his slider in some games.

    Curveball 2%  75 mph  (Knuckle Curve 76.5 mph)

    This is a pitch that Takahashi might look to incorporate more into his arsenal, especially to lefties. He threw a more traditional curve in 2023 with a 12-6 shape but also dabbled with a knuckle curve. He threw the traditional one 25 times and the spiked grip 23 times in 2023. 

    via GIPHY

    He threw the knuckle curve a little harder than the traditional one but tried to find consistency with the pitch to add another offering. He is primarily trying to steal a strike with the pitch as a first-pitch offering, and that’s all he needs right now. It serves as  something to keep in the back of hitters’ heads or a way to get up early in the count.

    via GIPHY

    What to expect this season.

    Takahashi has been an excellent run-preventer for the last two seasons. His jump in velocity last season helped produce more whiffs, but he will never be a high-end strikeout guy. 

    What makes him great is his bulldog mentality along with good control of his slider and splitter. He seems to raise the level of his pitching as he gets deeper into games. If he’s able to provide another successful season for the Lions they may have a tough decision coming next winter about whether he should be posted.

  • NPB スカウティングレポート：佐々木朗希

    NPB スカウティングレポート：佐々木朗希

    Translation by Yuri Karasawa and @takumabbetc

    世界トップクラスのピッチャーの一人が、なるべく早くMLBでプレーすることを希望している。現時点で彼はどのようなピッチャーなのだろうか。弊誌のライター、ブランドン・テューは、すべての登板を観察し、評価を行った。

    佐々木朗希は、理想的な球種と優れたコントロールを兼ね備えた、世界で最高の投手の一人だ。彼は競争力の高い日本プロ野球において三年連続で圧倒的な投球を見せている。今オフ山本由伸がロサンゼルス・ドジャースと契約した後、佐々木はNPBで最高の投手と言えるだろう。

    佐々木はMLBでプレーする意志をロッテ球団に知らせているが、今のところ、彼は日本で少なくとも2024年シーズン、打者たちを苦しめ続けることになる。佐々木の最大のハードルは、シーズン全体を通じて健康を維持し、ローテーションを守ることだ。昨年佐々木は、7月下旬に左斜筋の怪我で2か月間欠場し、9－10月の先発登板はわずか3度だった。過去2シーズンの佐々木の先発を全て観た私の評価は以下の通りである。

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks K-BB%
    2022 129 1/3 2.02 173 23 30.6%
    2023 91 1.78 135 17 34.2%

    佐々木の卓越した速球とフォークにより、 １００マイル (１６０キロ) を超えるストレートから鋭く落ちるフォークボールを使い、2つの球種で相手を圧倒する投手だ。佐々木は2023年に質の高いスライダーを加えたが、半分以上はストレートに頼り続けた。

    佐々木のストレートのコントロールと、ストライクゾーンの下にフォークを投げる安定性により、打者から多くの空振りを奪うことができる。 昨シーズンの彼のフォークの空振り率51.5%は、日本だけでなく、世界の全投手が投げるあらゆる球の中でも最高の球種の一つだと言える。

    メカニクス

    via GIPHY

    佐々木は、常にセットポジションから投げ、細い体から爆発的な運動能力を発揮する。 右腕の彼はピッチャープレートの三塁側から前足を拾い上げ、膝を肩の高さ近くまで上げ、その背丈は188cmを誇る。

    足を前に出して膝を軽く曲げ、空に向かってつま先を上げる。彼は足と膝を胸へと引き戻すことで、マウンドから降りる際に勢いを生み出す。この最初の前進動作中、彼は腰をとぐろを巻いて逆回転させている。足をセンターに向けて、前腰で体重を落として後ろ足を曲げるような動きをする。これは「ドロップアンドドライブ」と呼ばれる。

    足が地面に着くとき、腕は必ずしも 90 度になるわけではないが、胸を三塁側に向け、腰を打者の方に向けることで、腰から肩までの距離は理想的である。彼のシーケンスは非常に理に適っていて、エネルギーがうまく流れるようになっている。車のアクセルを踏むかのような脚の動きにより、エネルギーを腕に伝えることができる。スムーズかつリズミカルな投球フォームにより、身体がアスリートのように流れ、スリークォーターのスロットから引き裂くような球が放出される。マウンドから降りるまで体が開かない。

    球種別

    ストレート 50.3%、 99 マイル (159.3 キロ)

    佐々木の速球は彼の2つの傑出した球種のうちの1つである。 彼のフォーシームは、昨シーズン規定投球回数をクリアしたMLBの先発投手の中では、平均時速99.1マイルを記録したボビー・ミラーに次いで2位だ。 佐々木のストレートも最高時速162.5マイルを記録した。 彼は昨年3月のWBCで、世界の舞台でその豪快なストレートを披露した。

    球速だけでなく、縦と横の変化も相まって、打者にとっては大きな凶器となる。 彼の速球には19 インチを超える Induced Vertical Break (速球の垂直変化量) と 15 インチの arm side run (投げ手側への横の変化) がある。彼はゾーンの上部に速球を投げ込むことで、理想的な一球を生み出すことができる。

    佐々木は通常、ストライクゾーンの上部3分の1に向かってストレートを投げ、打者はボールの下を振ってしまう。彼がゾーン下部に投げる時、速球の横変化が打者のソフトコンタクトを生み、ゴロを打たせることができる 。彼がアームサイド（投手の投げ腕側、右投手の場合右側）の低めに制球できれば、右打者は詰まらされ、左打者にとってはボールが外角に逃げていく。

    昨シーズンのストレートの空振り率は24％、ゴロ率は56％だった。打者は、ヒットを打てる唯一のチャンスと見て、ストレートに山を張って待つだろう 。 それでも、佐々木は昨シーズン、本塁打を1本しか許しておらず、彼のストレートは被打率.222、被OPS.592を記録した。

    佐々木は通常、ストレートを打者から遠ざけようとし、たとえシュート回転があるとしても、グラブ側（右投手から見て自身のグラブがある左側）に一貫して投げ続ける。 より優れた左打者に対しては、打者の腕の下、つまり内角を狙うこともある。 彼はゾーンから数インチ離れた位置で投球を開始し、ゾーンの隅に戻そうとする。

    佐々木に必要なのは、それなりのコントロールのみだ。。彼はゾーンの隅にストレートを完璧に配置する能力はある。 しかし、試合のほとんどで、彼はゾーン内で打者に挑戦し、ベース上を垂直または水平に二分割するように投げ分ける。速球の球速と変化は信じられないほどで、とにかくストライクを多く投げ込むだけで抑えることができる。彼の捕手は、捕手は、彼にただストライクゾーンに投げさようと、ストライクゾーンのど真ん中に構えることもあった。

    フォーク 33.9%、89.7 マイル (144.3 キロ)
    佐々木のフォークは彼の最高の球種であり、世界最高のスプリットかもしれない。千賀滉大選手のゴーストフォークに匹敵し、打者が空振りしたり追いかけたりする確率は驚異的に高い。佐々木選手のフォークの 2023 年の空振り率は 51.5% だった。比較すると、2022 年の NPB シーズンの千賀選手のフォークボールの空振り率は 52.3% であった。
    佐々木のフォークは、ストレートと同じ角度で打者へ向かい、最後の瞬間で地面に向かって急降下する。彼のスプリットが生み出すトンネル効果により、特に低めのストレートとの見分けが非常に困難だ。メキシコ代表のランディ・アロサレーナ選手は、WBC で佐々木選手と対戦したときにこれを経験した。

    佐々木は主にゾーン低めにフォークを集めるが、時折左打者に対して見逃しストライクを狙って高めに投げたり、ボールが抜けてしまってゾーン甘めに入ってしまうこともある。変化の仕方は不安定ながらも、佐々木はスプリットに対して一貫した感覚を持っているようだ。

    ある程度意図的に行っていると思われるのは、右打者に対してはグラブサイドにカット気味に変化させ、左打者に対してはシュート気味に逃げてるように変化させるということだ。 彼はこれを頻繁に行っているため、スプリットの投球の際に指先で加える圧力を調整していると思われるが、意図的に行っているという確証は得られていない。彼がこの特定の球種で見せる投球術は、彼を野球界で唯一無二の怪物にしており、その投球に対する一貫性も同様に印象的である。

    Pitching Ninja によるこのビデオでは、佐々木がフォークで生み出すカットの動きと、右打者としてその球捉えるのがいかに難しいかを見ることができる。

    ゴロ率70.5％、被OPS.272という驚異的な数字と、被打率.101を誇る投球は特別な武器だ。

    スライダー 14%、87.5 マイル (137.9 キロ)

    佐々木が頼もしい３球目として取り組んでいる球種はスライダーだ。 2022年にはカーブとスライダーをそれぞれ5パーセント程度使用していたが、昨シーズンはスライダーの使用率を14パーセントに増やし、カーブを廃止した。

    彼は主にスライダーでゾーンの底、グラブ側をターゲットにし、主に右打者にそれを使用して投球構成を多様化した。スライダーの制球が定まらなかったこともあったが 、それは秘密兵器として試合を通して定期的に登場するピッチとなった。

    Sequence to LHH (Slider backdoor, Fastball in, Splitter Down):

    via GIPHY

    彼のスライダーはより大きな可能性を秘めている。2023年の空振り率は47%で、横変化と球速を兼ね備えた素晴らしいオフスピードピッチになる可能性がある。彼に必要なのは、スライダーに対して自信を持ち続けることだ。 最初の 2 球が非常に優れているため、現状から使用頻度をそれほど増やす必要はない。

    佐々木も球速80マイルのカーブボールを持っていることは注目に値するが、昨シーズン彼が投げたのはわずか2回だった。 以前はカウントの早い段階で時折サプライズ投球として投げていたが、それはほぼ廃止された。

    今シーズンに期待できること

    佐々木朗希の他を圧倒するような投球はおそらく2024年も続くだろう。健康を維持してマウンド上にいること以外、彼には何の欠点もない。 彼が健康であれば、NPB で彼より優れた投手は誰もおらず、22 歳の天才は、おそらく今年最も楽しみな投手となるだろう。 日本での彼の将来とMLBへの移籍の可能性については、今は待たなければならないが、彼の投球はいつ見ても感動を与えてくれる。

  • NPB Scouting Report: Rōki Sasaki

    NPB Scouting Report: Rōki Sasaki

    Rōki Sasaki is one of the best pitching talents on the planet with a combo of nasty stuff and good command. He has obliterated his competition in Japan for three seasons now. He firmly holds the title of the best pitcher in NPB after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed this offseason with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks K-BB%
    2022 129 1/3 2.02 173 23 30.6%
    2023 91 1.78 135 17 34.2%

    Sasaki has made his MLB aspirations known to the Lotte Marines, but for now, he will continue to torment hitters for at least one more season in Japan. Sasaki’s biggest hurdle is staying healthy throughout an entire season and continuing his stellar production. Sasaki most recently missed two months with a left oblique injury in late July before pitching sparingly with 3 more starts in September and October.

    I’ve watched all of Sasaki’s starts the last 2 seasons and from that I’ve made the following evaluation:

    What makes him so special?

    Sasaki’s exceptional fastball and splitter allow him to be a dominant two-pitch pitcher using his devastating splitter off of his triple-digit fastball. Sasaki added in a good slider during 2023 but continued to lean on his fastball over half the time.

    His command of the fastball and consistency in throwing his splitter below the zone have batters guessing and whiffing a bunch. With a 51.5% whiff rate on his splitter last season it’s one of the best pitches in Japan, if not all of baseball.

    Mechanics

    via GIPHY

    Sasaki shows explosive athleticism out of a wiry frame on the mound while throwing exclusively out of the stretch. Working from the third base side of the rubber as a right-hander he picks up his front leg and brings it high into the air with his knee finishing close to shoulder height for his 6’2” frame. 

    With his leg and foot out in front of him and a slight knee bend, he points his toes to the sky. He creates momentum down the mound with his leg and knee returning to his chest. He’s coiling and counter-rotating his hips during this initial move forward. With his foot turned towards center field, he leads with his front hip in a drop-and-drive delivery sinking into his back leg. He stays closed throughout this move down the mound.

    At foot strike his arm doesn’t always get to 90 degrees, but the hip-to-shoulder separation he creates with his chest facing third base and his hip towards the plate is good. He sequences extremely well, letting the energy flow. A firm lead leg block, allows him to transfer energy to his arm. Throwing with a smooth and rhythmic delivery, he’s letting his body flow athletically to rip the baseball from a 3/4 arm slot.

    The Arsenal (2023 usage and Average Velocity)

    Fastball   50.3%, 99 mph

    Sasaki’s fastball is one of two unicorn-type pitches for him. The average velocity is hard to match, as his four-seamer would have put him second among qualified starters in MLB last season behind only Bobby Miller who averaged 99.1 mph on his four-seamer last season. Sasaki’s fastball has also touched 102.5 mph. He showcased his electric fastball on the world stage during the World Baseball Classic last March.

    To go along with the velocity is a deadly combo of vertical movement and horizontal run. The pitch has over 19 inches of IVB (induced vertical break) and 15 inches of horizontal movement arm side. He can carry the ball through the top of the zone, creating an elite pitch. 

    Sasaki routinely throws his fastball toward the upper third of the zone, with hitters swinging underneath the pitch in all quadrants of the zone. When he does pitch down in the zone the run on the pitch creates weak-contact grounders as well. The pitch is jamming righties, or moving away from lefties as he spots it down and arm side. 

    The fastball garnered a 24% whiff rate last season and a 56% GB rate. Hitters would sit on the pitch as it was their only chance to pick up a hit. He surrendered only 1 home run with it all last season and his fastball had a .592 OPS against with a .222 batting average against.  

    Sasaki will usually try to keep his fastball away from hitters and, even with the run he gets, he locates the pitch glove-side on the outer part of the plate consistently to righties. Against better left-handed hitters he will also target the inside part of the plate underneath the hands. He starts the pitch a couple of inches off the plate and tries to bring it back to the edge.

    Sasaki just needs decent command of the pitch. When he wants to, he can dot a fastball on the corner. However, most of the game he challenges hitters in the zone and will split the plate in half vertically or horizontally. 

    The pitch has ridiculous velocity and movement, and he just needs to fill up the zone like a buffet plate. His catchers sometimes set up in the middle of the plate just to get him back into the zone.

    Splitter 33.9%, 89.7 mph

    Sasaki’s splitter is his best pitch and it might be the best splitter in the world. It rivals Kodai Senga’s ghost fork and racks up the whiffs and chases at an astronomical rate. Sasaki’s splitter had a 51.5% whiff rate in 2023. By comparison, Senga had a 52.3% whiff rate on his forkball in his 2022 NPB season.

    Sasaki’s splitter darts toward the ground at the last second, as it holds plane with his fastball. It creates a tunnel effect that is hard to decipher, especially down in the zone with his four-seam. Randy Arrozarena experienced this when Sasaki faced him in the WBC.

     

    Sasaki peppers the bottom of the zone with the pitch but also will leave it up versus left-handed batters occasionally trying to steal called strikes or just throwing a pitch that slips and catches too much of the zone. Sasaki still has a consistent feel of the pitch, even with its volatile nature in movement.

    In what I have decided is intentional to some extent, Sasaki will cut the splitter to his glove side away from right-handed batters, and pronate more to fade it away from lefties. He does this often enough to almost have a feel for his finger pressure on the pitch, though I can’t confirm this. The pitchability he displays with this specific pitch makes him a unique oddity in baseball and his consistency with it is just as impressive.

    This video from Pitching Ninja earlier shows the cut Sasaki can create on his splitter and how hard it is to barrel the pitch as a right-handed batter.

    With a 70.5% GB rate and an absurd .272 opponents’ OPS along with a .101 batting average against, the pitch is an unhittable menace.

    Slider 14%, 87.5 mph

    A pitch that Sasaki has been working on as a reliable third pitch is his slider. In 2022, he used his curveball and slider at around 5 percent each, but last season he upped his slider usage to 14 percent and scrapped his curveball. 

    He mainly targeted the bottom of the zone, glove side with his slider, and used it primarily to righties to keep them off of his splitter and fastball. He did have inconsistent command of the pitch at times but it became a pitch that he would routinely feature throughout a game as a wrinkle.

    Sequence to LHH (Slider backdoor, Fastball in, Splitter Down):

    via GIPHY

    The pitch has great projectability and when he snaps one off it can be a nasty breaker with sweep and velocity, with a 47% whiff rate in 2023. The next step for him is continued belief in the pitch. With how good his first two pitches are, he doesn’t need to up the usage that much more from where it currently sits in his repertoire.

    It’s worth mentioning that Sasaki has a curveball that sits at 80 mph but he threw the pitch only twice last season. He used to throw it more as a strike stealer early in counts but has all but scrapped it.

    What to Expect this season.

    Sasaki’s utter dominance should likely continue in 2024. There are no flaws in his game other than staying healthy and on the bump. When he’s pitching there’s nobody better than him in NPB and the 22-year-old phenom will likely be the most exciting pitcher to watch come this spring. As for his future in Japan and possible move to MLB, that will have to wait for now, but he’s sensational to watch every time he pitches.

  • New Padres Pitchers: Yuki Matsui and Woo-suk Go Scouting Reports

    New Padres Pitchers: Yuki Matsui and Woo-suk Go Scouting Reports

    The San Diego Padres signed two relievers this off-season to bolster its bullpen, bringing in Yuki Matsui and Woo-suk Go. Matsui comes to MLB as an international free agent after 10 seasons with NPB’s Rakuten Eagles, while the more recent signing of Go came as a surprise after Go was posted by KBO’s LG Twins. Both will be pieces in a revamped Padres bullpen.

    Yuki Matsui

    Season IP ERA Saves/Save Opp. Strikeouts Walks K-BB%
    2022 51 2/3 1.92 32/34 83 19 33%
    2023 57 1/3 1.57 39/42 72 13 26%

    What does he do well?

    Standing at 5’8”, Matsui is on the smaller side for MLB pitchers (he’d have been the 3rd-shortest pitcher in the majors last season) but uses his small stature to create some good pitch-shape characteristics. His fastball creates some carry from a lower release point due to his height, especially through the top of the zone. 

    His splitter is a nasty platoon-neutral pitch that disappears at the bottom of the zone, with an insane 56% whiff rate in 2023. He used the pitch more down and away from RHHs, but he can also throw it below the zone to left-handed batters with good results. 

    Mechanics

    Matsui also has a glove tap as he gathers himself at the top of his delivery. Creating a weight shift back as he lifts his leg, there’s a little pause as he balances. With a tiny pat of the ball in his glove he then comes forward and extends his leg out as his hip leads.

    One quirk is that Matsui darts his eyes up to the sky as he comes into foot strike, and the eyes don’t fixate back on the target until after the ball is released.

    via GIPHY

    The Arsenal

    Pitch Type Usage Velocity Strike % Whiff %
    Fastball 52% 92.5 mph 66% 23%
    Splitter 35% 87.5 mph 64% 56%
    Slider 11% 86 mph 69% 35%
    Curve 2% 76 mph 74% N/A

    Matsui’s go-to pitches are his fastball and splitter. He works the fastball up and away from right-handed batters, tunneling his splitter out of that same spot the majority of the time, throwing the two pitches on the outer part of the plate. 

    via GIPHY

    via GIPHY

    Against left-handed batters, his splitter works more middle of the zone down and he still tries to spot his fastball away from lefties on the glove side. One weapon for Matsui, especially against lefties, is Matsui’s slider. With good movement, he’s able to pound the bottom of the zone glove side. He would usually break out the slider and curve against the better left-handed hitters in Japan.

    Here’s a slider and fastball against Kensuke Kondoh, the best pure hitter in Japan:

    via GIPHY

    The video below is a splitter and curveball followed by a slider. I cut out some pitches in the at-bat for the sake of time, but this seven-pitch at-bat against Yuki Yanagita displayed Matsui’s full arsenal. 

    via GIPHY

    The pitch becomes an offering that moves away from lefties, but he is unafraid to bury the pitch down and in toward righties knees. With flashes of above-average command last season, Matsui found a formula that worked for him. 

    While he has displayed below-average control in some past seasons, he might have turned the corner with a 5.9 BB% in 2023. You don’t become the youngest player in NPB history to 200 saves without having some control and nasty offerings.

    What to Expect

    Matsui will compete for the closer role in San Diego but also could work well as a setup man or seventh-inning guy to start the season. He has two above-average to plus secondaries that should help against both right and left-handed hitters. He might alter his pitch usage slightly, but his high carry four-seam should prove a weapon even if thrown more 92-93 mph.

    Matsui struggled to adjust to using a different ball during the WBC, so his acclimation to the league, like Go, might take some time. Still, if he can keep his walks down like he did in 2023 success as a high-leverage reliever should follow.

    Woo-suk Go

    Season IP ERA Saves/Save Opp. Strikeouts Walks K-BB%
    2022 60 2/3 1.48 42/44 80 21 24%
    2023 44 3.68 15/17 59 22 19%

    After seven seasons with the LG Twins, Go was posted with a more shallow market for his services after an injury-plagued 2023 in which he missed time in May and his ERA ballooned after some bad outings. The most notable clunker came on April 30 when he walked two and gave up a weird high chopper for an RBI single. Then, three pitches later, he threw his slowest fastball of the year on a three-run home run. He was lifted and didn’t pitch again until June 4 due to an injury in his lower back. 

    He compiled a 31% strikeout rate last season to go with a high 12% walk rate. Go is a power pitcher who aggressively sprays the ball in and out of the zone and is an uncomfortable at-bat when he’s hitting his spots.

    What does he do well?

    Go is the hardest-throwing reliever in KBO, touching 98 mph on his fastball and comfortably sitting around 95 mph. His fastball gets flat at times, but he still has decently loud stuff for an MLB bullpen.

    Go’s arsenal is MLB caliber but with spotty control and command; he must consistently harness his secondary pitches and keep his fastball out of the middle of the zone. At times, he tries to be too fine with his pitches instead of trusting his stuff to play in the zone.

    There are numerous examples of cycling through pitch types with the catcher and trying to spot pitches perfectly on the edges.

    LG combatted by having their catcher set up in the middle of the zone and letting him rip pitches. Middle-of-the-zone fastballs won’t play as well in MLB, but he still throws 95 mph with a decent curve.

    via GIPHY

    Go pitches and feeds off of emotion and confidence so when he’s rolling he becomes even better. Bad outings can get away from him quickly because of walks. His stuff in KBO would just overpower lineups but stateside he needs to limit the walks for success.

    via GIPHY

    Mechanics

    Go has tinkered with his windup mechanics in terms of rhythm and timing. At points, he incorporated a glove tap into his movements and then he would completely scrap it during some outings or lessen it. To end 2023, he went back to a more substantial glove tap at the top of his leg lift.

    The Arsenal 

    Pitch Type Usage Velocity Strike % Whiff %
    Fastball 57% 94.5 mph 60% 25%
    Cutter 24% 91 mph 64% 28%
    Curve 15% 83 mph 65% 49%
    Slider 3% 85 mph 50% 46%

    Go tunnels his arsenal best when he works the zone vertically. Peppering the top of the zone with fastballs and then snapping off sharp breakers below the zone for chase. His curve has a baby spike grip and he can work the pitch both in and out of the zone.

    Curveball Grip

    via GIPHY

    He gets some gnarly chase swings at pitches and uses his curve to both righties and lefties. Against lefties, he will backdoor curves deeper into counts as well.

    via GIPHY

    Go primarily uses his cutter to keep hitters off his fastball. He is comfortable throwing the pitch glove so that it’s in on the hands of lefites or down and away to righties. He  occasionally throws it arm side on the edge versus left-handed batters.

    via GIPHY

    via GIPHY

    He also has a slider that he will use against better hitters. His cutter and slider have very similar grips. 

    Slider

    Cutter

                                                  

    With the cutter, Go stays behind the ball, and on the slider, he tries to get to the outside of the ball. There are subtle differences in movement and velocity but based on signs he has thrown both pitches. 

    via GIPHY

    In San Diego, the team might try to tweak his slider and play around with grips to get even more horizontal movement, and with pitchers like Darvish on the team who helped Rōki Sasaki with his slider, Go might find a tunnel horizontally that works for him.

    With his sporadic control, a more consistent slider could help Go pitch not only north and south but also east and west so he doesn’t have to be as fine and can still generate whiffs.

    What to Expect

    Go projects as a middle relief option who has experience at the back of a bullpen and if he can gain confidence and trust his stuff, could see his role expand during the season. With his fastball and curveball, he should have no issues facing both lefties and righties out of the pen.

  • How Good Is Naoyuki Uwasawa? An NPB Free Agent Scouting Report

    How Good Is Naoyuki Uwasawa? An NPB Free Agent Scouting Report

    Naoyuki Uwasawa was posted this off-season by the Nippon-Ham Fighters after 9 NPB seasons. He amassed a decent NPB career, racking up 1,118 innings pitched in 173 games and 50 starts.

    Here’s a look at his last two seasons with the Fighters:

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks K/BB Ratio
    2022 152 3.38 127 50 2.7
    2023 170 2.96 124 41 3

    He compiled a 7.5% walk rate and a modest 20% strikeout rate in his NPB career, with a 18% strikeout rate last season. He uses finesse over power to complement a deep arsenal of pitches, relying more on velo difference and changing of speeds than actual movement.

    What does he do well?

    As a right-hander, Uwasawa pounds the strike zone with his varied pitches and has been a reliable innings eater since 2020. Since returning from a 2019 injury-shortened season, he has thrown at least 152 innings in the last three seasons. 

    He doesn’t have the most potent stuff, but he threw strikes at a 66% strike rate in 2023; all his pitches can be thrown in and out of the zone. With slightly above-average command, he can change speeds and mixes his pitches well. 

    He has some promising pitch shapes but teams will buy in on his control and hopefully better command to soak up innings. To be reliable stateside, he must hit his spots.

    Mechanics

    Uwasawa and NPB posting mate Shōta Imanaga have similar setups and movements in their deliveries. Going straight into a leg lift, Uwasawa brings his knee up to his chest before adjusting down to his belt. 

    He then pauses his leg lift and creates counter-rotation in his hips by turning his foot towards the rubber, just like Imanaga. Uwasawa lands with a solid lead leg and his shoulders are level as his right arm gets to a 90-degree angle at foot strike.

    via GIPHY

    At times, Uwasawa deploys a tiny hop off his front foot after ball release, especially on fastballs he throws a little harder, thus showing some athleticism and freedom in how he finishes his movements.

    via GIPHY

    The Arsenal (2023 usage and Average Velocity)

    Fastball 44%, 90 MPH

    Uwasawa exhibits subpar fastball velocity for MLB and didn’t garner high whiff rates on the pitch in NPB, but was decent in 2023 at 18%. He threw his four-seam at about 41% and his two-seam at 3%. The four-seam is his go-to pitch, as he tries to spot it in different parts of the zone.

    His command of the pitch fluctuates between average to above-average. At its very best, it’s a good pitch on the edges of the zone. He has some really interesting fastball characteristics as well.

    He can get swings and misses at the top of the zone and creates foul balls in less desirable places. The lack of velocity is worrisome, but with good spin and carry his fastball can still work in MLB. He will most likely have to move away from a heavy fastball reliance though, and can’t leave the pitch in bad spots at its current velocity.

    Curveball 14%, 75 mph

    Uwasawa’s curve shows good movement when snapped off and he can throw the pitch harder when needed, but he will often use the slower end as a strike-stealer early in counts. The harder version is used more as a chase pitch below the zone against free swingers.

    Although he can throw the curveball for a strike, it has his lowest strike rate of any pitch at 62 % compared to his fastball at 68% in 2023. The lower strike rate is due to some of the curves slipping out of his hand and missing the arm side or being spiked in the dirt.

    He mainly uses the curve as a change-of-pace and will even mess with timing at points on all his pitches, but the curve is helped by this as he delays his movement down the mound after leg lift. An excellent example of this is an at-bat vs Yakult slugger Munetaka Murakami:

    via GIPHY

    Slider 13%, 81 mph

    Uwasawa throws both a sweeper and a harder slider, grouped above when referring to pitch usage. The sweeper sits around 78 mph and the slider can get up to around 84 mph but the shape of the two pitches is key.

    At times, Uwasawa’s sweeper gets loopy, morphing into a slurve, with more depth rather than horizontal movement. If he’s able to fix the movement and consistently make it more horizontal away from his curve, that could help the pitch become more distinct.

    Sweeper:

    via GIPHY

    As with most pitches, more velocity would be nice but even getting the shape consistent would help his slider, sweeper, and curveball separate not only in velocity but also in movement.

    Against right-handed batters Uwasawa uses his sweeper and slider as his second-most used pitch. If he’s able to throw more consistent sweepers, then his fastball will play up as a result. 

    This plate appearance below against Maikel Franco shows how Uwasawa might mix his pitches in MLB, illustrating how he doesn’t need heavy fastball reliance to pitch to hitters. While this plate appearance ended in a walk, Uwasawa broke off some nice breaking balls and had buy-in from Franco on almost all of them.

    via GIPHY

    via GIPHY

    Uwasawa will also backdoor his slider to left-handed batters and will even double up or triple up throwing the pitch consecutively. His slider and sweeper generated a modest 25% whiff rate in 2023. Uwasawa is ultimately trying to limit hard contact rather than pick up whiffs. His slider and sweeper accomplished that.

    via GIPHY

    Splitter 13%, 86 mph

    Uwasawa’s splitter is probably his best secondary and one that he should use more against left-handed batters. He surrendered only a .490 OPS against his splitter, but it was only his third most-used pitch to lefties, behind his fastball and curve. It might have been a case of Uwasawa relying on more velocity difference to keep the hitter’s timing off of his fastball. 

    If he lessens his fastball usage and upticks the splitter (especially to lefty hitters), it will help him stay competitive at the bottom of the zone. With a 53% GB rate on his splitter and a 57% rate on his curveball, those will be his money pitches in terms of keeping the ball on the ground.

    His fastball had a meager 30% ground ball rate and a 46% fly ball rate so using his splitter more should help bump up his career-low 40% ground ball rate in 2023. 

    Cutter 10%, 87 mph

    Uwasawa’s cutter is inconsistent and almost blends with his four-seam, being thrown just as hard at times. If you look at grips and well-thrown ones, the pitch has decent movement but is inconsistent. 

    Uwasawa occasionally leaves cutters in the middle of the plate and has them leak back because of minimal cut. This one below is followed by two sliders so the velocity difference saves him: 

    When he throws the cutter well though the pitch has decent movement and could fit inside of his arsenal as a weapon against against hitters on both sides of the plate.

    Here’s a slider and cutter away from a righty:

    via GIPHY

    Sitting around 87 mph the cutter is a below-average pitch overall, but with more consistency and location there’s still a fit inside of his arsenal.

    Changeup 6%, 81 mph

    To round out Uwasawa’s deep pitch mix is a changeup that he throws with distinct spin and velocity from his splitter. However, the changeup is a pitch that either needs to be scrapped entirely or needs a drastic overhaul in movement and shape.

    While the pitch performed well in 2023, there are just too many instances of the pitch being left in a hittable spot and or up in the zone. The pitch also doesn’t have as much depth as his splitter, and it mainly works because of the velocity difference catching hitters out on their front foot.

    There are a lot of examples of Japanese pitchers throwing both a splitter and changeup with far better velocity differential and movement profiles than Uwasawa. Understanding his identity as a finesse pitcher he wants the velo difference if only by about 5 mph. However, slimming down his arsenal, and going with only a changeup or splitter is Uwasawa’s best bet at an effective offspeed pitch in the long run.  

    What to Expect

    Uwasawa projects as a swingman in MLB with enough durability and control to be given a shot at the back end of a rotation. His four-seam characteristics and splitter have him standing a decent chance at some sort of valuable production for an MLB team, if he consistently hits spots, but the lack of velocity and overall stuff will limit his ceiling to that of a Kyle Gibson-type pitcher.

  • How Good is Jung-hoo Lee? Here’s Our Scouting Report

    How Good is Jung-hoo Lee? Here’s Our Scouting Report

    Jung-hoo Lee is a 25-year-old outfielder who after seven seasons playing for the Kiwoom Heroes in KBO was posted for MLB teams to sign. Lee has been one of the best players in Korea winning Rookie of the Year in 2017 and a league MVP in 2022 with 5 Gold Gloves during his 7 seasons.

    Lee has posted some gaudy offensive numbers in the last few seasons: 

    Season AVG OBP SLG OPS WRC+
    2020 .333 .397 .524 .921 139
    2021 .360 .438 .522 .959 162
    2022 .349 .421 .575 .996 175
    2023 .318 .406 .455 .860 139

    In comparison, Lee’s former teammate Ha-Seong Kim had a 141 WRC+ in 2020 in his last season in KBO. While Kim had more power in his swing before leaving Korea, Lee still drives the ball. His 150 doubles since 2020 are the most in KBO in that time.

    Lee had his 2023 season cut short after a fractured left ankle in July playing just 86 games but he did come back for one at-bat in October after surgery.

     What does he do well?

    Lee doesn’t have outlandish exit velocities but since March 2022, according to our Synthetic Statcast data, he has the highest average exit velocity of any KBO player at 89.6 mph. He consistently touches low-end hard-hit velocities as well. His 561 hard hits since 202 are easily the most in KBO. Lee also has high bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out with a 5.1% and 5.9% strikeout rate the last two seasons.

    Hitting Mechanics

    via GIPHY 

    Lee’s setup is unusual. Starting with an open stance with his feet shoulder-width apart. Lee then loads into his backside, storing energy and putting almost no weight on his front foot. He gets to this position early, before the pitcher’s hands break.

    He then has his head fully turned to the mound with both eyes fixated on seeing the ball early. With this move, he also loads his hands back slightly and puts his bat at an acute angle behind his helmet.

    As he moves forward he unleashes this energy with a short and quick swing finishing with high hands and either a one-handed or two-handed finish. His barrel control is impressive and his ability to spoil pitches and adjust his posture and bat head is an asset.

    Offensive Profile

    Lee is a patient hitter who tries to hit the ball hard and gets full swings off even in two-strike counts, and he’s a really good two-strike hitter. His contact in and out of the zone deep in counts lets him look for certain pitches early and work the count.

    Lee likes the ball on the inner-third and many teams in Korea tried to pitch him away because of this. He punished pitches on the inner third of the plate.

    Since 2020 he has hit .320  with a .616 slugging percentage and 1.071 against inner-third pitches with 27 HRs on those pitches. He understands his best chance to drive the baseball in the air is on inside pitches.

    Teams tried to pitch Lee away to neutralize his power but he takes his base hits the other way as well.

    via GIPHY

     

    Season Pull% Center% Oppo%
    2020 39% 35.5% 25%
    2021 46% 33% 22%
    2022 40% 38.5% 21%
    2023 44% 32% 24%

     

    He keeps the ball up the middle to his pull side for the most part but is disciplined enough to stay on off-speed pitches and fastballs away, displaying gap power to both left and right field. With a 37% hard-hit rate in 2023 and 32% in 2022, it makes sense that Lee wants to inflict damage on the pull side.

    via GIPHY

    Even though he doesn’t cut down on his swing often, he makes a lot of contact with only an 8% whiff rate since 2020. His ability to put the bat on the ball, especially in the zone, stands out. While he will ultimately face better pitching in MLB, the contact ability should translate.

    With a 41% swing rate he hunts pitches early in the count and while he does have some chase his knack for making contact out of the zone is also impressive. He has only 84 swinging Ks in 1,888 at-bats since 2020.

    Lee hits the ball on the ground a lot, sometimes hard enough to get it through the infield. With a ground ball rate of 58% in 2022 and 59% in 2023, it can explain his lack of power production. A 59% ground ball rate would have ranked 3rd in MLB among those with at least 300 plate appearances last season.

    via GIPHY

    This also led to Lee being “Full Ted” shifted (what we at SIS call three infielders on one side of the field.) As well as shaded up the middle (or what we call Partial Shifts) with two infielders on the weak side playing closer to 2nd base. To put this into perspective Lee was shifted on 55% of the balls he put in play in 86 games last season. That was second in the league behind Jose Rojas at 56%.

    With the limits placed on shifting in MLB Lee could still try and pull the ball even on the ground, but to tap into his power potential he will need to get the ball in the air more.

    With a high finish to his swing, when he gets the right pitch, he can backspin the ball out of the park. Lee hunts pitches to lift and pulls both when he has an advantage in the count and early on first and second pitches as well.

    via GIPHY

    via GIPHY

    Lee also does his most damage on fastballs, with a .358 batting average and .991 OPS, and 27 home runs against them since 2020. KBO fastballs sit more high-80s and low-90s so as with any player making the jump to MLB he will have to deal with consistently higher velos.

    He “struggles” against sliders and cutters if you can even call it that, still slashing .290 BA/.840 OPS against sliders and .273 BA/.724 OPS against cutters since 2020. Easily his worst performance against pitch types although he faced only ~300 cutters and ~1,600 sliders in that time frame compared to ~ 4,200 fastballs.

    His biggest adjustment will most likely come against not only higher velocity fastballs, more mid-90s than low-90s, but also more quality sliders and sweepers. Lee will probably be tested by high velocity early in MLB and then teams will start to mix in breaking balls and off-speeds if he shows the ability to routinely handle high velocity.

    Defense

    Lee’s defense is interesting. In 2022 Lee had -13 DRS in CF but would still flash moments of highlight-type grabs. Inconsistency and forcing throws contributed to this number. In his 2023 shortened season he had an outstanding 9 DRS. KBO players are judged using an MLB out probability basis and he performed very well last season.

    via GIPHY

    This huge fluctuation probably leaves Lee somewhere in the middle, as someone who can hold his own in CF for an MLB team, and with his athleticism he can make the plays he needs to. He profiles better as a corner outfielder though and with a strong enough arm to play RF over LF but he might get some run in CF for whatever MLB team he signs with.

    He’s comfortable going back or coming in. One quirk I noticed watching him is that he routinely tries to get around the ball to catch fly balls on backhands even when going to his forehand side and displays comfort in tracking the ball.

    OF Jumps:

    via GIPHY

    Backhands:

    via GIPHY

    With his above-average speed and solid ball tracking, he should be average to slightly above depending on what position he plays. He also uses his speed on the base paths but more to take extra bases rather than rack up stolen bases, with only 69 swiped bags in his KBO career. Although, the “Grandson of the Wind” can scoot when he needs to.

    via GIPHY

    The nickname is an homage to his legendary father Jong-Beom Lee, who won an MVP award in 1994. The older Lee also holds the record for the most stolen bases in a season with 84 during his MVP campaign, earning him the nickname “Son of the Wind”.

    What to Expect

    Lee will have a transition period, especially in his first season in MLB. Facing high velocity and better pitching overall will be an adjustment. While he might never hit for much power, if he’s able to lift the ball a little bit more he can still pull the ball for home runs but might have modest homer totals overall.

    Lee projects as a high average and on-base leadoff hitter who is just entering his prime. He has the contact skills and batter’s eye to make an impact along with the defensive acumen and athleticism to hold his own at any of the outfield spots, with left field probably being his best fit.  Lee should turn into a solid to above-average player with some upside, a la Jeff McNeil, if he hits for more power.

  • NPB Free Agent Scouting Report: Shōta Imanaga

    NPB Free Agent Scouting Report: Shōta Imanaga

    Shōta Imanaga was posted by the Yokohama Baystars after spending eight seasons pitching in NPB’s Central League. He is coming off his two best seasons as a pro and heads into free agency at 30 years old.

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks SO/W
    2022 143 2/3 2.32 132 29 4.6
    2023 148.0 2.80 174 24 7.3

    Imanaga is listed at the same height and weight as fellow NPB posting mate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, at 5-10 and 176 pounds. The lefty possesses some of the best pure stuff in the world. His 68% strike rate would have been in the top 10 in MLB among qualified starters in 2023. 

    This final list of Stuff+ leaders from the World Baseball Classic is a mix of notable MLB and NPB pitchers:

    What does he do well?

    Imanaga’s arsenal is as deep as it is potent, highlighted by a high-carry four-seamer with over 20 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). The pitch cuts through the zone staying on plane and causing swings and misses over the top of barrels. 

    Imanaga also has multiple variations of pitches that make him a tough at-bat for hitters. He led NPB in K rate at 29% and was the strikeout leader in the Central League with 174. Imanaga has multiple chase pitches, with sources such as Deltagraphs noting that hitters chased outside of the zone over 35 percent of the time against him in 2023. A 35% chase rate would likely rank in or around the Top 20 among MLB starters if Imanaga could do that in MLB. 

    Mechanics

    via GIPHY

    Imanaga deploys a paused leg lift, as many Japanese pitchers do. This allows him to create rhythm and balance in his delivery. Imanaga brings his leg up towards his chest before quickly settling around waist height with a tiny pause. He then slightly turns his foot towards the rubber, creating counter-rotation in his hips as he shifts his weight and momentum forward. 

    Imanaga sinks deep into his lower half and back leg before pushing down the mound. He has solid repeatability and good extension relative to his height because of his lower-half use.

    The Arsenal (2023 usage and Average Velocity)

    Fastball   59%, 91.8 mph

    Imanaga relied heavily on his fastball, throwing his four-seamer close to 54% of the time and his two-seamer around 5%. The four-seam has elite fastball characteristics as mentioned earlier and even though Imanaga loved to work down in the zone more than up, batters swung underneath his fastball in both areas of the zone.

    Up

    via GIPHY

    Down

    via GIPHY

    The pitch racked up 96 Ks in 2023 and performed well with a .234 opponents’ batting average. But even in Japan’s dead ball era, Imanaga has been plagued by the HR ball. In the last two seasons, he finished with 14 and 19 HR against, respectively, including playoffs, with 26 of them surrendered on a fastball in that span.

    The likely culprit of this is throwing too many fastballs in hitters’ counts, with shaky command at times and high fly ball rates.

    Less reliance on his four-seamer as well as pitching more up in the zone could help him out with his high-carry fastball. He also throws the pitch for a strike 73 percent of the time, so working it out of the zone could mitigate the damage as well. Still, he needs better command of the pitch to accomplish this. He has above-average command of the pitch overall, but there are examples of fastballs leaking to the middle of the plate.

    Here’s a dotted fastball in the 9th inning of his no-hitter last season:

    via GIPHY

    Slider 16%, 81.5 mph

    Imanaga throws two variations of a slider that are grouped together when we refer to his pitch usage. His sweeper is used less often, though he has fluctuated its usage from game to game the past two seasons. His sweeper is on the lower end of velocity in the mid-70s, and what I would call his “true slider” sits closer to 80 mph.

    Here are the two variations:

    Sweeper: 

    via GIPHY

    Slider:

    via GIPHY

    His sweeper and slider have good shapes to them and while more velocity would be nice they still fit well in his arsenal, giving him three varieties of speed moving away from LHBs with the inclusion of his cutter. 

    The sliders combined for his second-most strikeouts. They should continue to be valuable weapons for him, versus LHBs.

    Splitter 12%, 83.2 mph

    Probably the most intriguing pitch Imanaga throws is his splitter. He actually throws with two different splitter grips to go along with his changeup. 

    Here are the three pitch grips all from the same game. They have slight differences in grip most noticeable at the bottom of his arm swing. 

    You can see with the modified split Imanaga puts his middle, ring, and pinky finger together. With the traditional splitter, he has his pinky and ring finger tucked behind the ball. He’s thrown the two different splitter grips at different times from what we have charted since the middle of July 2022 but he’s gone back to more of the modified splitter in 2023.

    With MLB baseballs being slightly larger and less tacky than NPB balls, it will be worth following what grip he might find most comfortable. Masahiro Tanaka famously battled with finding a comfortable splitter grip throughout his MLB career.

    The splitter is a real swing-and-miss pitch for Imanaga with over a 40% whiff rate in 2023. The velocity separation of the pitch from his fastball causes batters to not only whiff but also hit a fair amount of ground balls (a 50% ground ball rate)

    via GIPHY

    The velocity dip from his fastball also causes a lot of weird swings and weaker contact even on fly balls.

    via GIPHY

    Curveball 7%, 73 mph

    Imanaga’s curve is a slow loopy pitch in the 70s with some sweep to it. It has a lazy arc and he primarily uses it as a change of pace pitch to keep hitters off of the rest of his arsenal. 

    via GIPHY

    Imanaga also has a very slow curveball (in the 50s in terms of MPH) that he breaks out on rare occasions (5 times in 2022, 8 in 2023). The pitch is used to freeze batters. He might up the usage of this slower curve in MLB just to keep hitters honest.

    via GIPHY

     

    Cutter 4%, 86.7 mph

    Imanaga’s cutter was his worst-performing pitch in 2023, though only 21 at-bats ended with one. He actually abandoned the pitch for the first couple of months of the season before returning to use it in June with 5% usage the rest of the season. In 2022 he actually was throwing more cutters than sliders and the pitch was much more useful for him then than in 2023.

    He throws a harder version of his slider that is tagged as a cutter. It’s more of a hybrid and he routinely will use it more in slider situations, throwing it down and away. That’s something I noticed when I wrote up his 2022 no-hitter vs Nippon-Ham in June 2022. He threw 24 cutters that night with no sliders or sweepers.

    via GIPHY

     

    Changeup 2%, 81.5 mph

    Imanaga’s changeup is his least-used pitch. He threw 32 of his 52 in one game against Rakuten in May.

    If Imanaga can’t grip his splitter with an MLB ball maybe he goes to more of a changeup grip or he finds a way to mix the change in more. He also had no fear throwing the pitch left on left, which speaks to his pitchability but that is still probably the toughest pitch to execute in baseball.

    Here’s back to back changes against Maikel Franco with an 8-mph difference:

    via GIPHY

     

    via GIPHY

    Just another example of Imanaga’s pitchability.

    What to Expect

    Imanaga is a strike-throwing lefty with some of the best pure stuff in the world because of his pitch movement and ability to spin the baseball. Even without high-end velocity or command, Imanaga throws strikes and punches tickets which should lead to success in MLB. 

    He has mid-rotation upside right now. His spot in an MLB rotation will be determined by whether he can keep the ball in the ballpark. 

  • NPB Free Agent Scouting Report: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

    NPB Free Agent Scouting Report: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

    If you’re not familiar with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I can sum this up pretty quickly. He is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation and one of the best in NPB history. After seven stellar seasons and three years of utter dominance, the Orix Buffaloes are posting Yamamoto. He can sign an MLB contract this offseason.

    The 25-year-old has produced an incredible three-season stretch.

    Season IP ERA Strikeouts Walks SO/W
    2021 193 2/3 1.39 206 40 5.2
    2022 193 1.68 205 42 4.9
    2023 164 1.21 169 28 6.3

    Yamamoto’s pitching earned him three consecutive Triple Crowns and Sawamura awards, NPB’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award. In his last game for Orix, Yamamoto cemented his status as an NPB legend, throwing a complete game with 14 strikeouts in Game 6 of the Japan Series. The 14 strikeouts broke a Japan Series record formerly held by Yu Darvish. 

    Here’s all 14 strikeouts:

    Why is he so good?

    Yamamoto blends power and command, the traits that teams look for in a starting pitcher. At 5’10” and 176 pounds, he is a smaller pitcher but has a strong frame and the ability to pitch deep into games and throw many innings without injury. He’s thrown at least 160 innings each of the last three seasons. 

    In Game 6 of the Japan Series, he threw 138 pitches. He’s durable and maintains velocity. His 133rd pitch was a 98-MPH fastball. He’s just as effective deep into games as he is at any other point, which is what makes him an ace.

     

    Yamamoto’s sequencing, arsenal, and control, compounded by his elite command and ability to throw 4 to 5 pitches in specific quadrants in the zone make him a nightmare for hitters.

    Mechanics

    Yamamoto’s change to go from a held leg kick that’s done by many Japanese pitchers to an elimination of his leg kick altogether in 2023 is fascinating. He now replicates his motions from the stretch to his movements in the windup. He still gets good extension down the mound for his height and puts himself in a nice sequence to throw the ball.

    Yamamoto 2022 Mechanics   

    via GIPHY

    Yamamoto 2023 Mechanics 

    via GIPHY

    The repeatability of the delivery is textbook. He had a 68.5% strike rate last season. That would have put him at 5th among qualified starters in MLB behind Joe Ryan and ahead of Spencer Strider. A clean and efficient delivery puts him in optimal fielding position. He is an excellent fielder who won the 2023 NPB Fielding Bible Award for pitchers.

    The Arsenal (2023 usage and Average Velocity)

    Yamamoto’s arsenal is deep and it’s electric with a pitch mix that attacks the zone more vertically, than horizontally. He fits the profile of power pitchers that teams desire. He has velocity along with a killer breaking ball and offspeed pitch; the three make him hard to hit and, with his control, he rarely gives up free passes.

    Fastball  48 %, 95 mph 

    Yamamoto has a four-seam and two-seam fastball and will sprinkle in the two-seam on the hands of righties or he will occasionally front-hip the pitch to lefties. The main attraction is his four-seam. 

    Yamamoto averaged just under 95 mph on his fastballs this season but his four-seamer plays up in the zone with good carry. A lower release point due to his height and 3/4 arm slot make it a unique pitch that explodes at the top of the zone. 

    Yamamoto’s average release height is around 5.5 feet putting him in elite company in terms of that metric. With 17 inches on average of induced vertical break (IVB), he’s able to carry the ball through the top of the zone with ease.

    Yamamoto doesn’t always live at the top of the zone even though his fastball tunnels with his curveball nicely. He opts to tunnel the pitch with his splitter more but his command of the pitch in all four quadrants is what makes him special. Yamamoto can spot his fastball where he wants it and it sets up the rest of his devastating arsenal.

    Curveball  16%, 77 mph

    Yamamoto’s curve is one of the prettiest in the world. It drops out of the sky for strikes but also generates plenty of whiffs. He also can get chases by throwing curves below the zone, or he can steal strikes late and early in the count.

    Throwing with a Ginoza grip as he shows the back of his hand towards the plate, he then pushes or flicks the ball with his thumb, which is what gives the pitch such high spin. It averages 77 mph and he’s also able to take some off or throw it harder when need be.

    I love this overlay from Pitching Ninja that illustrates how good the pitch is:

     

    Splitter  26%  90 mph

    Yamamoto’s splitter is effective against left-handers with a .178 opponents’ OBP and a .424 OPS. The crazy thing is against right-handed batters it performs even better, a .106 OBA and a .324 OPS. The splitter is his go-to strikeout pitch and is nightmare fuel for batters.

    Also like much of the rest of his arsenal, he’s able to manipulate the speed and shape. Yamamoto can create more backspin and higher velocity when needed or can take some off and kill spin depending on the situation. 

    This was never more evident than in a game in 2022 when he threw a two-seamer and a splitter at the same speed in back-to-back pitches. The pitch averages 90 MPH but he has been able to throw the pitch from 82 mph up to 93 mph. He has the feel to “gas pedal” all his pitches at any time. This messes with the hitter’s timing and rhythm as well as their ability to sit on specific pitches.

    via GIPHY

    If the pitch is put in play he keeps it on the ground. The splitter has a 77% ground ball rate. Couple that with a 60% groundball rate for his curve and you can see that it was difficult for hitters to get his secondaries into the air. His groundball rates should take a dip in MLB with the types of hitters he faces. Remember too that his current numbers may be distorted because NPB is currently in a “dead ball era” but a better positioning of fielders in MLB can also help him out.

    The splitter is a weapon for him against both righties and lefties and with its darting and diving action, he’s able to generate whiffs and chases with a 40% whiff rate each of the last two seasons. The pitch has late action and ducks underneath barrels consistently.

    Here’s Yamamoto’s split that looks like a wiffle ball as it takes off from the batter:

    via GIPHY

     

    Slider and Cutter (SL) 2% 85 mph / (CUT) 8%  92 mph

    To round out his arsenal we can look at both his cutter and slider together. The slider, rarely thrown, is more of a sweeper. The cutter was thrown more to RHBs than LHBs but he does throw the pitch in on the hands of lefties. With a .366 opponents’ OBP and an OPS of .825, it was by far his worst-performing pitch. 

    via GIPHY

     

    via GIPHY

    The issue is sometimes the cutter will occasionally leak to his arm side, but he’s still very comfortable spotting the pitch where he wants it and has no lack of confidence in throwing it. Here’s a front-hip cutter to a RHB that’s perfectly painted on the inside getting an emergency hack: 

    via GIPHY

    The slider is rarely thrown, less than two percent of the time. He still spots the pitch very well and it has a good sweep to it.

    It’s a very projectable pitch for him and he has the feel to throw it. He just never had to in NPB because of his three best pitches and because he was facing more left-handed hitters. He might never throw it more in MLB but it could play as a real weapon against MLB hitters, especially right-handed hitters.

    via GIPHY

    What to Expect

    As Yamamoto transitions to facing MLB hitters, he might opt for more high four-seams and more reliance on his curveball as a change of pace early. The MLB ball is slightly bigger and less tacky than its NPB counterpart, and we could see his usage possibly change by adding in more cutters and sliders while he adapts his splitter. However, it is worth mentioning that he threw an MLB ball in the World Baseball Classic this spring with minimal issues. 

    With three double-plus offerings and elite command of all his pitches, Yamamoto has the chance to be a Top 10 or Top 5 pitcher in MLB next season. There are always questions about the transition from NPB to MLB, but Yamamoto is the most polished pitcher to make this transition.