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Author: Patrick Rowley

  • Sports Info Solutions NFL Round One Mock Draft

    Members of the SIS operations department put together an annual seven-round mock draft and this year we decided to share the first round. This was done independent of previous rankings and analysis that appeared in other publications. Below are the picks along with a brief explanation from the person who selected them.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    1 Cardinals Kyler Murray Oklahoma QB Nathan Cooper

    Murray is an explosive playmaker who will fit what Kliff Kingsbury is wanting at the Quarterback position.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    2 49ers Nick Bosa Ohio State Edge John Todd

    After bolstering the defensive interior with past high picks, SF finishes the edges with Dee Ford and Bosa

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    3 Jets Quinnen Williams Alabama DT Noah Gatsik

    Arguably the best player in the Draft will bring more explosiveness to the Jets defensive line.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    4 Raiders Josh Allen Kentucky Edge Justin Stine

    Allen is in the top tier of edge defenders in this class, and the Raiders desperately need to recoup some pass rush after the Mack trade

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    5 Buccaneers Ed Oliver Houston DT Nathan Cooper

    Oliver is an explosive pass rusher that Tampa can place next to 2018 1st Rounder Vita Vea once Gerald McCoy moves on.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    6 Giants Montez Sweat Mississippi St Edge John Todd

    Assuming NY is fine with reported health concerns, Sweat replaces Vernon as a prototypical edge rusher.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    7 Jaguars Jonah Williams Alabama OT Noah Gatsik

    Williams is a versatile OL that can come in and help protect newly acquired Nick Foles.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    8 Lions Deandre Baker Georgia CB John Verros

    The Lions could possibly trade down from this spot and get Baker, where his closing speed and ball skills will help bring stability opposite Darius Slay.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    9 Bills Devin White LSU LB Evan Butler

    Pairing White with 2018 1st Rounder Tremaine Edmunds will allow for an incredibly quick and rangy LB core.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    10 Broncos Drew Lock Missouri QB Nathan Cooper

    Lock possesses the arm strength and raw talent that John Elway loves and is looking for in Denver.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    11 Bengals Jawaan Taylor Florida OT Josh Hofer

    The Bengals desperately need to upgrade their offensive line and Taylor’s run and pass blocking ability should help the offense be more effective.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    12 Packers Devin Bush Michigan LB John Shirley

    Bush brings speed and instincts to a defense that’s looking to get younger and faster.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    13 Dolphins Garrett Bradbury NC State OC John Todd

    Miami seems keen on building the rest of the roster and passing on a QB until 2020. Bradbury is a top-rated OL.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    14 Falcons Christian Wilkins Clemson DT Noah Gatsik

    Wilkins is a versatile DL that will be disruptive in the run and pass game for Atlanta’s defensive line.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    15 Redskins TJ Hockenson Iowa TE John Todd

    Tough to pass on Haskins here, but Hockenson can be an elite two-way TE who doesn’t alert defenses to run or pass.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    16 Panthers Brian Burns Florida St Edge Nathan Cooper

    Carolina can use more speed on defense and Burns brings that speed and raw pass rush ability off the edge.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    17 Giants Andre Dillard Washington St OT John Todd

    NY has claimed it is still happy with Eli at QB. Protecting him better will help try to defend that opinion.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    18 Vikings Cody Ford Oklahoma OG Jeff Dean

    The Vikings need significant offensive line help and would happily fit the massive Ford in anywhere on the right side.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    19 Titans Dexter Lawrence Clemson NT Dan Foehrenbach

    Lawrence’s ability to get to the QB paired with Jurrell Casey would result in a very disruptive and improved defensive line.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    20 Steelers Greedy Williams LSU CB Dan Wallie

    With both of the Devins gone, the Steelers can continue to bolster the secondary with Greedy’s patience and ball skills.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    21 Seahawks Clelin Ferrell Clemson Edge Nathan Cooper

    Ferrell fits what the Seahawks are looking for off the edge with his explosion and pass rush ability.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    22 Ravens AJ Brown Ole Miss WR John Todd

    With no WR off the board yet, Ravens can take their pick. They’ve been burned before by size/speed types like Metcalf, so they go for the more polished Brown here.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    23 Texans Greg Little Ole Miss OT SIS Scouting Staff

    Little possesses the length and strength to be an effective pass blocker for a Texans OL group that needs to get better in front of Deshaun Watson.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    24 Raiders DK Metcalf Ole Miss WR Justin Stine

    Metcalf has a high ceiling if he can stay healthy and prove he can separate in a full route tree

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    25 Eagles Chris Lindstrom Boston College OG Noah Gatsik

    Eagles need to address the interior O-line and Lindstrom is best available that adds depth since he can play both guard spots and also allows Seumalo to move to Center if Kelce has to miss any time.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    26 Colts Jeffery Simmons Mississippi St DT Nathan Cooper

    Even with the knee injury and off-field issues, the Colts get a guy in Simmons that can bring the explosiveness and three-down ability that they are looking for on the D-Line.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    27 Raiders Byron Murphy Washington CB Justin Stine

    Murphy might be the top cover corner in this year’s draft and would bring a balanced, dynamic skillset to the Raiders’ secondary

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    28 Chargers Dwayne Haskins Ohio St QB John Todd

    This is much later than Haskins should go but without projecting trades, a slide is possible if a top QB sneaks through the teens. Chargers could groom an heir to Rivers.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    29 Seahawks Johnathan Abram Mississippi St S Nathan Cooper

    Abram’s all-around, 3-level ability on the back end should make for an easier transition from the departed Earl Thomas

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    30 Packers Marquise Brown Oklahoma WR John Shirley

    Brown has the speed and playmaking ability to be a threat with the ball in his hands around the line of scrimmage and can take the top off of the defense.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    31 Rams Deionte Thompson Alabama S Justin Stine

    Thompson is a true “centerfield”-type safety, who can roam the middle of the field and use his range to make plays behind a talented defense.

    Pick Team Player School Position Selected by:
    32 Patriots Noah Fant Iowa TE Noah Gatsik

    With Gronk now gone, Fant will be viewed to step in and help give Brady another weapon at the Tight End position.

  • SIS Draft Special

    Sports Info Solutions is opening its wealth of data to you for free during the NFL draft!

    To celebrate the draft, all trials to the SIS DataHub will have the trial status removed and be given full access to the most in-depth and accurate football database.

    The SIS DataHub is a premier research tool that has all the traditional metrics as well as proprietary statistics that are not available anywhere else- including blown block percentage, broken tackles, route data, and more.

    Layers of filters and splits allow users to easily manipulate the data to view performance in certain situations in order to gain a deeper understanding about a player or team’s overall body of work. Two-minute drill, red zone production, man/zone splits, and one- possession games are just the surface of the type of situations you can access with the DataHub.

    This week, Business Development Analyst and resident DataHub expert, Corey March, will be releasing a video demonstrating some of the DataHub’s unique capabilities and showing some of the best ways to navigate the site. Corey will talk about some of the players and stats he finds interesting about this year’s rookie class.

    Inside the video, Corey will also mention a promo code that can be used with the DataHub to get a discount on new subscriptions.

    To cap off the NFL draft celebration, trials to the DataHub will have a chance to win free subscriptions, with one subscription being given away each day of the draft.

    Day 1: Annual account awarded

    Day 2: Three- month account awarded

    Day 3: One- month account awarded

    Take advantage of this opportunity to research the newest class of future NFL starts and make decisions on each pick for yourself!

    Sign up for your trial at SISDataHub.com

    Questions? Reach out to Patrick at prowley@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com

  • Citizens Bank Park is ideal for Bryce Harper’s power.

    by PATRICK ROWLEY

    Earlier this offseason, a number of writers were talking about how Bryce Harper’s vicious, left-handed swing was “made for Yankee Stadium,” making pinstripes a perfect fit for the young star who grew up a Yankees fan.

    That thought intrigued us, so we looked a bit deeper to see which ballpark would be an ideal fit.

    In 2018, Yankee Stadium ranked second in park factors for HRs as a LHB with a factor of 132, just behind Angels Stadium’s 134. Last season Harper pulled 42 percent of balls in play, not far from his career pull percentage of 39 percent, which looks perfect for a stadium in which the fence is 314 feet down the right field line (much to the ire of opposing teams).

    Digging a bit deeper into the splits shows that the frequency with which Harper pulls balls in play is skewed dramatically by his ground ball tendencies, pulling 62 percent of grounders to the right-third of the field However, on fly balls, Harper hit the ball the other way 50 percent of the time and pulled the ball just 16 percent.

    As park factors are better at showing league trends than individual performance, our R&D department then looked at every Bryce Harper fly ball over the last two seasons and calculated how many of the flies would have gone out at each park.

    We then divided by his total number of games played over the last two seasons and multiplied by 81 to bring it in to the context of a full season’s worth of games at the home park.

    A few caveats to this exercise: we were unable to incorporate factors such as wall height, atmosphere, and wind speed and direction in these calculations. To account for this, a five-foot cushion was incorporated into the calculation, giving the total he likely would have hit at each park.

    The results came out with Yankee Stadium as just the 10th best park for Harper to pick up a few extra homers on the season. Citizens Bank Park, on the other hand, was second with about 24 balls projected to go out. For context, the difference between Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park was 5.7 extra home runs at home over a season. 

    Conservatively rounding down, an extra five homers this season would have brought Harper’s total up to 39 (good for tied for 4th in baseball). Depending on what the original result of these batted balls were, Harper’s OPS would jump from .889 (16th) to anywhere between .908 (if all the added home runs were originally doubles) to .933 (if they were originally outs). Manny Machado, for those interested, had a .905 OPS this season, good for 11th.

    We’re not the only ones to feel confident about Harper’s home run performance. A study earlier this winter came to a similar conclusion.

    Also noteworthy is the lone park that came out ahead of Citizens Bank Park- Minute Maid Park in Houston. On November 10, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote an article about how Houston and Washington had a deal in place to move Harper ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline that was ultimately rejected by Nationals ownership. As we mentioned, we were not able to put these balls into context with wall height, so it’s fair to assume at least a few of these would end up as doubles or even long singles considering the 19-foot high wall in left field, but it’s fun to imagine how things could have shaken out differently if the Astros had Harper in the lineup in their title defense.

    With this said, the Astros were never concretely connected to the 26-year old superstar this offseason, whereas the Phillies had said they were willing to pay “stupid money” and appeared to be the most aggressive suitor in the Harper sweepstakes. This could be both the best available financial option for Bryce as well as the best statistical career option for him in the long run.

    Oh, and by the way, Harper doesn’t even come out as the biggest home run gainer using this system. New Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto comes out eight home runs ahead if we compare Citizens Bank Park to Marlins Park.