By TED BAARDA

2020 has been an interesting year for many reasons, and the sports world has been affected as well. MLB’s reported revenue losses have made headlines as this season comes to a close but MLB is not the only baseball league dealing with financial issues.

Japan’s NPB is playing close to a full season, with teams playing 120-game schedules instead of 143 and with some playoff rounds removed, while South Korea’s KBO is playing their full 144 game season with full playoffs.

However, these leagues have played their seasons with limited attendance for most of the season so they are likely also feeling financial losses. One way for these teams to recoup some of their losses is to post their better players and receive a fee from the MLB team that signs that player.

Some teams never post their players, like the SoftBank Hawks, and others like the Yomiuri Giants are new to posting players The Nippon-Ham Fighters are one of the more well-known teams when it comes to posting players. In the past decade two of the most well-regarded Japanese players have come from the Fighters: Yu Darvish and Shohei Ohtani. This year’s Nippon-Ham team does not have that star power, but the Fighters could post some of their current stars this off-season.

LF/DH Kensuke Kondoh

Kensuke Kondoh is a lefthanded hitting outfielder for the Fighters. He sets up in the box with his bat pointed in the air and uses a leg kick to drive his swing, which has a slight uppercut. Kondoh hits a lot of ground balls and line drives and does not elevate the ball enough to tap into his power. This approach does help him run consistently high batting averages and his great discipline helps him to get on base at a very high level, but the lack of power hurts his overall offensive profile.

Defensively Kondoh is limited to corner positions and he primarily lines up as the left fielder or designated hitter for Nippon-Ham, though he will play some right field and played some third base in 2019. A former catcher, Kondoh does not have great speed, but he can competently track fly balls and has a good enough arm to make runners think twice before attempting to advance. In the majors he would likely be a left fielder/first baseman/DH.

Kondoh has the ability to earn the label of a “pure hitter”, but I think he could make a swing change to create more loft and hit for more power as well. Currently he would profile as a bat-first corner player without much power, which is generally not the profile of a starter, but more of a backup or bench bat. If he taps into more power he could end up being a good starter, with a top-end comp of Michael Brantley, but he would need to make some adjustments to get there.

RHP Kohei Arihara

Will Hoefer previously filed a report on Arihara last year. This is an updated look.

Kohei Arihara has a very deep repertoire, which gives him weapons to use against hitters from both sides of the plate. His four-seam and two-seam fastballs both sit in the low 90s. He works to both sides of the plate with his fastball, and does a good job of keeping it down.

He will mix in a low 80s slider in any count to righties, which sweeps across the plate but lacks sharp, late break. His go-to strikeout pitch is a high 80s splitter that he will throw away to both lefties and righties that has sharp, late diving action on it.

Against lefties he will turn to a high 80s cutter that he locates up and in, and he also throws a fading changeup with a good amount of drop that makes lefty hitters look bad. To round out his repertoire he will occasionally mix in a slow, looping curveball that clocks in around 70 MPH.

The 28 year-old Arihara is a strike thrower, which helps him keep his walk rate down. His highest walk rate in any season was 2.4 BB/9 in his rookie season as a 22 year old. However, since he is around the plate so much it also limits his ability to get strikeouts and his overall results are at the mercy of batted ball luck.

In his best season (2019) he allowed a career-low 6.1 H/9 and was in contention for the Sawamura Award (NPB’s equivalent to the Cy Young). In a rare power move the selection committee determined that no pitcher was worthy of the Sawamura Award, and it was not handed out for the first time since 2000.

Arihara profiles as a No. 4 starter in an MLB rotation, though some progressive teams might see him as a swingman or multi-inning bulk reliever like Ross Stripling. There is upside here too if a team feels like they can help him develop a swing-and-miss breaking ball to boost his strikeout rates, but being able to throw 93 mph with good control and a deep repertoire makes Arihara a safe option as a back-end starter.

CF Haruki Nishikawa

Haruki Nishikawa has the prototypical leadoff hitter skill set, as a center fielder with patience and speed. At the plate the lefthanded Nishikawa holds the bat pointing straight up in the air, and attacks his pitch with a flat, line-drive swing. His hands are quick to the ball, allowing him to turn on pitches inside and he lacks the big leg kick that is common in today’s game, opting instead for a small toe-tap. He tries to spray liners around the field and keep the infield honest with bunt fakes and attempts, and he rarely chases pitches out of the zone. He lacks any power at the plate with his ISO below .100 in each of the last two seasons.

On the bases, the speedy Nishikawa is a legitimate threat to steal bases or take extra bases on balls in play. He pushes the boundaries on his leads, getting as far off the base as he can and having to dive back to the base on most pickoff attempts. He gets good jumps on his stolen base attempts and has plenty of experience reading pitchers and their pickoff moves.

Defensively, Nishikawa does not get great jumps on fly balls, but he has the speed to make up for bad jumps if the ball hangs in the air. His arm strength is slightly below average, playable in center and left but likely not in right field. He grades out poorly by defensive metrics, but that is likely also exaggerated by extreme positioning used by Nippon-Ham (and NPB teams as a whole), particularly with how shallow they will position their outfielders against certain hitters.

Nishikawa did come up as an infielder, though he has been primarily an outfielder since 2015. He has only played in the outfield for the last four years, but teams looking to get creative may try him out at different positions.

Overall Nishikawa likely profiles best as a fourth outfielder and pinch runner in the mold of Ben Revere. At the MLB level, he would likely see a drop in walk rate and OBP as teams would attack him and not worry about giving up extra base hits. However his speed, contact ability, and discipline at the plate are all good and could help him carve out a role in the Majors.

By TED BAARDA

In a surprise move the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s NPB are reportedly considering posting their ace, Tomoyuki Sugano.The Giants have never posted a home-grown player, and Sugano is a central part of a team that will be going to the Japan Series for a second consecutive year. Lack of fan attendance this season may be a factor in the decision for the Giants, as the posting fee from Sugano may help offset any financial losses for the team. Sugano was expected to pursue MLB opportunities after the 2021 season as a free agent.

Background:

In terms of MLB preparedness, the 31-year-old Sugano has nothing left to prove in the NPB.

He has been an elite pitcher in the league since his arrival with a career 100-50 record, 2.35 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP to go with strong peripheral numbers (8.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9) (LINK). Sugano has won the Central League MVP (2014) and 2 Eiji Sawamura Awards (NPB equivalent of the Cy Young) in 2017 and 2018, with a Pitching Triple Crown (Leading league in Wins, ERA and strikeouts) in 2018. He is a candidate for the Sawamura award again this season based on his strong work, and may add to his 3 Gold Gloves as well.

Sugano has also shown up big in the playoffs, winning the 2013 Climax Series MVP (equivalent to the LCS MVP) in his rookie season and throwing a no hitter in the 2018 Climax Series to eliminate the Yakult Swallows (LINK).

Sugano also appeared for Team Japan in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, tying teammate Kodai Senga for the tournament lead in strikeouts with 16. He pitched six innings allowing one unearned run against Team USA in an eventual Japanese loss in the semi-finals of the tournament.

Pitching Style:

The right-handed Sugano has a unique wind-up as he starts with both feet facing towards home plate, but will turn his upper body 90 degrees towards third base before starting to move his feet. He releases the ball from a ¾ arm slot and repeats his delivery well. Out of the stretch Sugano has a quick delivery with a small leg kick which allows him to help control the running game.

Sugano throws his fastball in the low 90s. He has a 4-seam fastball that he can locate to all quadrants of the strike zone and a 2-seamer with some run that he will try to keep low in the zone. His best secondary pitch is his mid 80s slider that he uses to run away from righties and in to jam lefties. His slider has late downward break to it which makes it a good putaway pitch or a good option to induce weak contact.

Sugano also has a high-80s splitter that he uses primarily away to lefties but will also throw it away to righties on occasion. His splitter has good downward action and he will throw a lot of them in the dirt with two strikes hoping for a chase. He also throws a high 70s curve sparingly that he will use to steal a strike early in an at-bat, often attempting to back-door it and get an outside strike against lefties.

While Sugano’s stuff is enough to make him a viable starter in the Majors, what sets him apart is his command. He primarily throws his fastball on the outside corner with precision and works his other pitches off that. Against righties he will throw the slider on the outside corner or start it there and let it break off the plate. Due to the late break of the slider it tunnels well with the fastball. Against lefties he locates the splitter on the outside corner consistently, which also pairs well with his 4-seamer, and he will mix in the inside slider to keep hitters honest.

Like with just about every pitcher there are some injury concerns, as the team reported some ligament damage in 2014, and in 2019 he did not pitch for over a month from Sept. 15 until Oct. 23 (which ended up being the final game of the Japan Series), and did not look like himself when he was on the mound. Pitchers in the NPB are also not subjected to such rigorous pitch count monitoring as in the US, as evidenced by his 3 shutouts this season with pitch counts of 122, 125 and 135.

Those numbers are not outliers either, as NPB starters typically will throw over 100 pitches per start. This possible overuse of his arm may worry some teams as they pursue trying to sign him. However despite that, he rebounded from 2019 with a great season this year.

Conclusion:

Tomoyuki Sugano is the most accomplished pitcher in the world who has yet to appear in MLB. He has a consistent and exceptional track record in the NPB, and playoff and international success to his name as well. He projects as a No. 2 or 3 starter in the Majors with an MLB comp of Johnny Cueto, so he should have plenty of suitors if does end up getting posted.

By TED BAARDA

Earlier this month, reports came out about Kia Tigers left-handed ace Hyun-jong Yang (also spelled Hyeon-jong Yang) looking to make the jump to MLB this offseason. To most North American fans the 32-year-old Yang is likely someone they have never heard of, except for maybe catching a glimpse of him playing an early-morning KBO game on TV. 

Background:

Hyun-jong Yang has had quite a successful career in the KBO since debuting for Kia in 2007 as a 19-year-old. In 2014 Yang was awarded the Dong-won Choi Award, the KBO equivalent of the Cy Young, going 16-8 with a 4.25 ERA (the KBO was in a high run-scoring environment at the time).

After the 2014 season Yang was posted by the Tigers in his first attempt to come to MLB. However, the bid received by the Kia Tigers was deemed by the club to be too low so they chose not to accept the bid and kept Yang.

The best year of Yang’s career was 2017, where he started the season pitching for the Korean national team in the World Baseball Classic. In the KBO that year Yang went 20-6 with a 3.44 ERA, winning his second Dong-won Choi award and the league MVP. The Tigers won the Korean Series and Yang was named Korean Series MVP to top off his dominant year.

How he Pitches:

The bespectacled Yang has a simple and repeatable wind-up with a full leg kick and a release from a ¾ arm slot. Yang has a traditional pitch mix of a fastball, slider, curve and changeup. His fastball is a straight 4-seamer that averages just under 90 MPH and can touch 93-94. Yang makes up for the low velocity by being able to locate his fastball to all four corners of the zone and is comfortable working at the top of the zone or above the zone as well as inside to hitters.

Yang’s low 80s changeup is his best secondary pitch, and it plays off his fastball well. He gets quite a few bad swings and misses from hitters that are out in front of it. Yang’s control of his changeup was a bit of an issue early in the season, as he was either leaving it belt high or burying it in the dirt. As the season went, he was able to throw his changeup for low strikes more regularly but his command of the pitch can still be inconsistent.

His third pitch is a low 80s slider, which has sweeping movement along with some drop. Like his change up, Yang only throws his slider to one half of the plate (inside to righties, away to lefties).

Yang’s last pitch is his curveball, that he throws in the mid 70’s. It doesn’t have exceptional break, but he uses it more as a change-of-pace breaking ball or to steal a strike at the beginning of an at-bat.

Overall, Yang typically has good control and can locate certain pitches to certain parts of the zone. He appeared to be wary of giving up hard contact this season, and buried more pitches in the dirt as a result. This along with varying his pitch mix and occasionally relying on his 3rd and 4th pitches against certain teams may have contributed to his rising walk rate this season.

When he misses his spots, Yang also tends to miss away from the middle of the plate, which helps him avoid getting hit hard. While he throws his fastball well over 50% of the time, he does have the confidence to throw his change or slider multiple times in a row if he feels that pitch has a better chance to get a tough hitter out.

Overview:

Hyun-jong Yang appears to be a candidate to make it to MLB as a control-reliant lefty at the back end of a rotation, with fastball command and a good offspeed and breaking pitch to make up for the low velocity.

However, should he need to move to the bullpen he has the pitches to get both lefties and righties out (and if his fastball gained a few miles per hour in short stints that would help too).

It will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes in the MLB in terms of pitch locations and sequences, such as working on a backdoor slider to righty hitters or throwing more changeups to lefties. In fact, in his best start of the season (8 scoreless innings on October 18) he threw more changeups to left-handed hitters, although he also had his best fastball velocity of the season in that game too. MLB teams in need of lefthanded pitching depth should take a close look at Yang.

By TED BAARDA

Players coming to MLB from overseas are always intriguing to look into. Will they produce similar numbers as they did in Asia? Or will their skills not translate at the highest level? There are opportunities for teams to find a bargain, along with the risk of tying up valuable payroll space on a player who does not contribute to the team. Let’s look into three position players from Japan who may have the opportunity to jump to MLB next season, should their NPB teams permit it.

Tetsuto Yamada – 2B – Yakult Swallows

If you search Tetsuto Yamada’s name on the internet, it isn’t long before you find someone who refers to him as Japan’s Mike Trout. Yamada’s strong all-around game is what intrigues people so much, and as he gets closer to free agency it makes more sense for the Yakult Swallows to consider posting him. Yamada’s resume is impressive, with four 30-30 seasons, five All-Star appearances and a Central League MVP award all accomplished before the age of 28.

Yamada isn’t the biggest player on the field, but he gets the most out of his 5’10”, 163 lb frame by incorporating a big leg kick into his swing. He has quick hands and a level bat path and is able to drive the ball despite his stature. Yamada has above-average speed and strong running instincts (as evidenced by his 176 steals against just 28 caught stealing for his career). While he isn’t an elite defender, he does a solid job at second thanks to his athleticism and strong fundamentals. He has not played any defensive position other than second base since the 2013 season.

Yamada would be highly sought after if he does get posted, but he is in the midst of a down year by his lofty standards. This could be the result of an upper-body injury (he did not play from July 27-August 12), but Yamada does have a history of being remarkably durable, as he has reached at least 140 games played out of a possible 143 in five of the past six seasons. The injury may have affected his approach at the plate as well, as his strikeout and walk rates have trended in the wrong directions this year.

Assuming he is fully healthy Tetsuto Yamada could find a role on any MLB team, and maybe this offseason he will get that opportunity.

Seiya Suzuki – OF – Hiroshima Carp

When thinking about the prototypical right fielder, two attributes come to mind, namely a strong arm and power at the plate. If you asked an NPB fan who fits this mold, they would likely name Seiya Suzuki’s name off the top of their head. The 26 year-old Hiroshima Carp right fielder has been a consistent power threat in the middle of the lineup and has held his own in the field as well.

The 5’11” Suzuki has a leg kick that he uses as a timing mechanism, lifting his leg when the pitcher starts coming towards the plate and letting his foot hover in the air until he drives forward with his swing.

For a smaller player with a flat swing Suzuki can produce power without much visible effort, sending laser-shots all around the diamond. Even when the ball does not leave the park, Suzuki still produces at the plate. He is in the midst of his fifth straight season with a batting average of at least .300 and was the Central League batting champion last season.

Suzuki was primarily a pitcher in high school, then a third baseman and shortstop upon joining the Carp before settling into right field, all positions that require a strong arm. Runners have to be wary of running on him as Suzuki has 31 assists from right field in the last 4 years. His arm is his best defensive attribute, but he will occasionally get a poor read on fly balls. Still, Suzuki has won the NPB version of the Gold Glove Award in three of the last four seasons, which is a testament to the effort he has put into his defense since moving to the outfield.

While Suzuki is a gifted athlete, he has not developed instincts on the bases. Despite his good speed he is a poor base-stealer in the NPB, having gone 72-for-119 (60.5% success rate). His focus on the mound for his formative baseball years may have contributed to this, but his success rates haven’t moved from the low 60’s range even in recent years.

Seiya Suzuki is still just 26, and the Carp may decide to keep him around for a couple more years before posting him (if they choose to), but he could provide an MLB team with a middle of the order righty bat in the corner outfield.

Tomoya Mori – C – Seibu Lions

Tomoya Mori is a solid catcher, and at age 25 should be on the radar of MLB teams soon. 2019 was a career year for Mori, as he won the Pacific League batting title and took home the league’s MVP award. But 2020 has seen Mori’s offense take a step back. He still has a solid track record at the plate for his career

Mori is more known for his accomplishments with the bat than with the glove, and the 5’6” lefty swinger gets a lot out of his diminutive frame.

Mori uses a big leg kick to start his swing and kicks his foot out in front of home plate before stepping forward in his swing. The body control required to pull off this swing is impressive, and Mori finishes his swing with a violent uppercut. The swing works for Mori, who has shown great bat to ball skills, good gap power and improving plate discipline.

Defensively, Mori’s 5’6” stature is an advantage in one regard, as in a crouch the umpires can easily see over him. Mori’s arm strength is around MLB average for a catcher, as his pop times to second are right around the 2-second range. Mori is a good pitch blocker on balls that are in front of him, but he can have difficulty blocking balls that require him to move laterally.

One thing that Mori will need to work on is consistency in his setup. When watching a recent game, I noticed that he usually sets up in a crouch when on the third base side of the plate, but will go to one knee when calling for pitches on the first base side of the plate. With a runner on first and second base open he will be in a crouch on both sides of the plate to prepare for a potential throw, but otherwise the crouch/kneel pattern held for most pitches in the game. This type of pattern would be easy for a big league team to notice and exploit.

Though his height plays fine in the NPB, it will be a challenge for someone his size to play in MLB. There hasn’t been a catcher 5-6 or smaller since Tony Rego, a backup for the St. Louis Browns, 95 years ago.

Despite his small size, he has a track record of hitting and pitchers have to pitch to his smaller zone (though he is chasing more this year). He is likely a bat-first catcher, and the bar for catcher offense is fairly low at the MLB level giving him a good opportunity to provide value.

Overall Mori, assuming his bat bounces back, could provide teams with an above-average bat at the catcher position, which is a luxury in today’s game. Some defensive improvements would make him even more appealing to MLB teams as well.