Category: MLB

  • Minor League Defenders to Watch According to Keith Law

    By ALEX VIGDERMAN

    Monday’s episode of the SIS Baseball Podcast featured The Athletic’s Keith Law, whose book “The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves” comes out April 21.

    The conversation largely consisted of discussion of some of the cognitive biases that affect all of us to some extent and particularly baseball decision makers in the realm of player evaluation and roster construction (for those wondering about the board game Keith recommended at show’s end, Jaipur, is available virtually in multiple locations).

    The last bit of the interview included Keith mentioning the prospects we should be interested in from a defensive perspective. Two of those names have come up in previous podcast episodes, and another might surprise you given his position.

    Cristian Pache, Braves CF (FanGraphs Prospect Rank: 20)

    We start with a name that I’ve heard a few times in prospect discussions over the offseason in Braves outfielder Cristian Pache. Unfortunately, he isn’t likely to play center field in the majors any time soon because arguably the best young player in baseball is currently manning that spot (Ronald Acuña Jr).

    A move to a corner position should be just fine for Pache, who in his age-20 season split time across all three outfield positions. That included saving nine runs in just 20 games in right field, which was second at the position (he was among the defensive standouts mentioned on the September 4 episode of the podcast).

    Pache’s arm shone in a small sample across Double-and-Triple-A, allowing only five runners to advance and retiring three runners without the use of a cutoff man in just 13 opportunities. Both of those rates were much better than the minor league average in 2019.

    Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates 3B (FanGraphs Prospect Rank: 30)

    Ke’Bryan Hayes was the guest on the SIS Baseball Podcast on August 20th, primarily because of his reputation with the glove (he’s won the Minor League Gold Glove at third base three years running). He ranks second in Defensive Runs Saved among minor league third basemen with at least 1,000 innings over the last two seasons, trailing only the Rockies’ Josh Fuentes (who won’t be making much noise at the hot corner any time soon, as he’s blocked by Nolan Arenado).

    One of Hayes’ calling cards defensively is the jumping catch. He recorded the out on 11 plays where our Video Scouts saw him to field the ball over the last two seasons, which was second-most in the minors in the games we charted. His 73 percent success rate (11 for 15) tied for the best among those with at least 10 jumping attempts.

    Evan White, Mariners 1B (FanGraphs Prospect Rank: 64)

    If they say there’s no such thing as a first base prospect, imagine what “they” might say about a first base prospect on defense. Evan White might break that mold, and the Mariners are betting on that. They signed him to a six-year extension that was the first ever for a player without experience above Double-A.

    White won the Minor League Gold Glove at first in 2018 after winning a couple collegiate Gold Gloves while at Kentucky. He followed that up in 2019 by ranking third among qualified minor league first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved.

  • Which is the best defensive team of the 21st century?

    By MARK SIMON

    We covered the best defensive players of the 21st century in a series of articles (and Twitter polls) the last two weeks. But what about trying to figure out which was the best defensive team?

    Doing this with Defensive Runs Saved tends to slant the choices to the last four seasons. That may be due to the increase in awareness about the importance of defensive positioning as much as anything else. So to be fair, we limited our choices in those years to four in total in the interests of giving some other excellent defensive teams their due.

    One thing that was challenging was how to handle the idea of a late-season call-up (Andrelton Simmons for example) who stood out. Do we weigh the team’s performance based solely on when he played or do we consider the year in its entirety for better or worse? We pose the question for you to consider.

    Here’s our list, based on a combination of stats and general observation. Rather than rank them, we’ll list them in reverse chronological order (try ranking teams against each other – it’s really hard!) The links take you to available highlights of the team’s defensive play found on YouTube.

     2019 Dodgers

    The Dodgers led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved on the strength of their positional versatility.  Cody Bellinger became the first player to win two Fielding Bible Awards in a season, as he tied for the MLB lead in Runs Saved in right field and played a solid center field and first base.

    Max Muncy filled in ably at three positions, including a stellar stint at third base when Justin Turner got injured. Kiké Hernández played a Gold Glove-caliber second base (13 Runs Saved) but also got time across the outfield and infield. Joc Pedersen saved six runs at each outfield spot. Alex Verdugo saved eight between right field and center field.

    2018 Diamondbacks

    That this Diamondbacks team finished over .500 was a tribute to how good their defense was. They have the single-season record for Defensive Runs Saved (148) dating to 2003, the first season for which the stat is tracked. Nick Ahmed led all shortstops in Runs Saved with 30 and just missed winning a Fielding Bible Award (he’d win one in 2019).

    Teammate Jeff Mathis did win a Fielding Bible Award behind the plate, which was impressive in that he only played 63 games. But he finished with an MLB-high 20 Runs Saved there, a dominant performance too good to ignore. Mathis’ fellow catchers, John Ryan Murphy and Alex Avila, combined to save 11 more runs in their time share. Ahmed was part of a very strong infield highlighted by second baseman Ketel Marte (12 Runs Saved) and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (11).

     2017 Red Sox

    The Red Sox got knocked out of the postseason by the Astros in the ALDS, but this laid the groundwork for the World Series win the following season. This team had an outstanding outfield, with three players at their best in Mookie Betts (MLB-leading 30 Runs Saved), Jackie Bradley Jr. (15) and Andrew Benintendi (12). They also had Dustin Pedroia at the end of his run of excellence at second base. He saved eight runs in 98 games and along with Mitch Moreland (9 Runs Saved) made a very formidable right side of the infield.

    But perhaps the most underrated aspect of this Red Sox team was how good its catchers were. Sandy Leon (15 Runs Saved) and Christian Vazquez (10) formed as good a defensive tandem as there was in baseball with each ranking among the top pitch framers in the game.

     2016 Cubs

    The first Cubs team to win a World Series since 1908 was an excellent defensive team, getting at least 10 Runs Saved from five different positions (pitcher, catcher, first base, shortstop, and right field). Anthony Rizzo (first base) and Javier Baez (multi-position) won Fielding Bible Awards, Jason Heyward (third in right field), Kris Bryant (third at multi-position) and Addison Russell (fourth at shortstop) also placed high in Fielding Bible voting.  The Cubs were the best team in the majors when it came to turning ground balls into outs. And it was a ground ball on which Bryant made the play that ended their championship drought.

    2012 Braves

    This is a Braves team with a great outfield, featuring Jason Heyward in right field (17 Runs Saved, which ranked second in MLB), Michael Bourn in center field (MLB-leading 23), and Martin Prado in left field (11, second) regularly.  This was also the debut season for all-world shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who saved 19 runs in only 49 games.

    Consider too that one of their alternatives, Tyler Pastornicky, cost the team 16 runs in 47 games there, making Simmons all the more valuable.  Props also to catcher Brian McCann, whose 13 Runs Saved behind the plate were a career high.

    2008 Phillies

    The World Series-winning Phillies team led the majors with 76 Runs Saved, 58 of which came from second baseman Chase Utley (whose 30 are tied for the most in a season at the position), shortstop Jimmy Rollins (MLB-best 18) and center fielder Shane Victorino (10). This is one of the best teams to point to if you’re going to talk about defensive strength up the middle. And it’s not the only Phillies team in this era to make the list.

    2005 Phillies

    This Phillies team just missed the postseason, but their defense was superb. In fact, they had the most Runs Saved (97) of any team in the first 10 seasons that the stat tracks (2003-2012) The Phillies got a combined 85 of those Runs Saved from their infielders.

    Second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins led the way with 20 and 18 Runs Saved, respectively. David Bell (17 Runs Saved) and Ryan Howard (11) were strong at the infield corners (Howard wasn’t typically this good). What keeps this team from the very top was a couple of weak spots – Bobby Abreu in right field (-9) and Mike Lieberthal (-12) behind the plate).

    2005 Cardinals

    You could pick a number of Cardinals teams from the mid-2000s. This one was pretty good from a statistical perspective, especially on the infield where second baseman Mark Grudzielanek saved 23 runs (second-most at the position that season), a total matched by the Cardinals primary third basemen, Scott Rolen (14 in only 56 games after saving 30 the year before) and Abraham Nunez (9).  Albert Pujols (13) was solid at first base and Yadier Molina (13) was his usual excellent self behind the plate.

    2002 Angels

    This team predates Defensive Runs Saved by a year, so we’re relying on Sean Smith’s Total Zone Runs Saved (a worthy predecessor or companion to our stat) and our recollections.

    The Angels got an all-timer of a year from center fielder Darin Erstad, who recorded 39 Runs Saved (we’re willing to believe in that given that Erstad won a Gold Glove at two positions and had a reputation for excellence). They also had four players in their primes record at least 10 Runs Saved (Garret Anderson, Adam Kennedy, David Eckstein, and Bengie Molina). Troy Glaus also saved seven runs at third base, a spot where he had a stellar rep.

    Perhaps most notably, the Angels didn’t have any position players who could damage a defense. Only one (infielder Jose Nieves) cost the team more than one run in defensive value

    2001 Mariners

    It would be hard to win 116 games without being an elite defensive team, unless you scored an absurd number of runs or struck out a ridiculous number of hitters. The Mariners had six players record at least 10 Runs Saved per Total Zone Runs. Third baseman David Bell led the way with 19. Ichiro Suzuki in his rookie season ranked second with 15. Bret Boone (12), Mike Cameron (11), Carlos Guillen (10) and 37-year-old outfielder Stan Javier (10) each were dynamic on defense. And let’s not forget slick-fielding first baseman John Olerud, who finished with seven Runs Saved.

    Did we miss anyone?  We’re guessing you think we did. Share your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter.

     

     

  • Who’s the best defensive player you’ve ever seen?

    Compiled by Mark Simon

    Who’s the best defensive player you’ve ever seen?

    Think about that one for a little bit. It’s thought-provoking and requires considering a lot of factors. But it’s a fun subject.

    We posed the question to as many “baseball people” as we could find. These included former players, broadcasters, journalists, and a few others who work in our industry. We got more than two dozen responses. The respondents ranged in age from 20s to 70s so the baseball-watching inventory varied. Some names come up more than once and deservedly so. Some names will surprise you. These are their answers — if you click on any player’s name, you’ll get a link to video highlights of that player.

    Sean Forman, owner, Sports-Reference.com

    “I’ll go with Andruw Jones.  Everything looked easy when he was going for balls.  I believe the eye test is terrible for assuming the flashy play was the difficult play.  When a ball is hit and I think to myself, ‘Oh, that’s going to be a problem,’ and then the defender fields it easily, that’s an indicator that the player is a great defender.”

    Mike Krukow, former MLB pitcher, current analyst for Giants TV broadcasts

    Barry Bonds did things I never saw anyone do. He never got the accolades for being the player he was. One of the most incredible first steps on the defensive end.

    In 1993, the Giants had John Burkett and Bill Swift, two sinkerball pitchers. There were times I’d see Bonds standing 15 feet from the left field line when a left-handed hitter came up. You could have parked eight semis length-wise in the space between him and the center fielder, Darren Lewis. And he never got burned on a ball in the gap.

    Day-in and day-out, guy would slice fly balls to him. He always said ‘If he tries to hit it to the gap, I alter his swing. And if I alter his swing (by playing where he played) I did something important.’”

    Marty Lurie, KNBR talk-show host, San Francisco

    “Hall-of-Famer Luis Aparicio was the first major league player I saw up close in spring training in Miami in the mid-1960’s. I watched him take infield and to my amazement his hands never moved once he was in position to field a ground ball. The glove was steady. It was so quiet, I couldn’t believe it. That’s when I realized how good a fielder a top flight major league shortstop was. Poetry, quiet glove and hands, completely in control of the ball.”

    Trevor Plouffe, former MLB third baseman, current MLB broadcaster, various sources

    Matt Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier are damn close. Chapman is so strong and quick laterally. His arm is out of this world. His pre-pitch setup is so low that you would think he would be limited in his first step but he isn’t. KK has closing speed. So many balls were hit that I thought he had no chance on. And he would get there. And his ability to work the wall is incredible.”

    Manny Acta, Mariners bench coach

    Adrián Beltré. His reflexes, agility, hands and arm strength were just unbelievable. He even made bunters doubt themselves, because he was so good coming in, it was sick. I am also a big Rolen and Tony Fernández fan. I always prefer an infielder over an outfielder. It’s always tougher to catch a ground ball. There no bad hops in the air.”

    Gary Cohen, Mets TV play-by-play announcer

    “Oh my, Mark!  You’re asking me to pick one?  For short periods of time, Rey Ordoñez and Juan Lagares were state of the art at their positions.

    But for the duration of his career, Keith Hernandez was the best defender I have ever seen.  He re-defined the position, in terms of his range, his fearlessness, but also the command he took of the entire infield (and occasionally the battery), from a position that rarely exudes that kind of on-field leadership.”

    John Thorn, official historian of MLB

    “To the eye, Cal Ripken, Jr. was not an impressive shortstop. But his numbers in 1983-1984 were astounding, indicating that much of defense consisted of positioning before the pitch–that brains were as important as reflexes. Rey Ordoñez looked better than Ripken, and as a Mets fan I saw him more often. But he wasn’t.

    You asked who was the best defensive player I ever saw, and I must preface my answer by saying that watching in two dimensions–on a tv screen–is not the same as seeing in three. Live, it was Ozzie Smith, but at the ballpark it was Jim Edmonds.”

    Vince Cotroneo, Athletics radio play-by-play announcer

    “The best defensive player I saw in the minors was Roberto Alomar, at Double-A Wichita with the Padres in 1987, playing shortstop. Unbelievable range and an absolute magician, from a quality family.

    But ultimately for me, and I know it’s a small sample, Matt Chapman stands alone. Because he has revolutionized the positioning at third, playing so deep with his incredible arm and quick feet. Watching him take bunts away from Dee Gordon has been a sight to behold.

    In St. Louis, Matt Carpenter attempted to bunt to start the game. Matt was alone on the left side in the shift. He charged, grabbed, and beat Carpenter by a full stride to first. To me, it epitomized the one reason for interleague play. The chance to see a player perform at the highest level that you wouldn’t ordinarily get to watch based on schedule.”

    Adam Amin, ESPN Radio play-by-play announcer

    “The fluidity of Nolan Arenado’s glove work and the angles he moves at, to get to balls others don’t, makes me feel he’s the best infielder I’ve ever seen.”

    Len Kasper, Cubs TV play-by-play announcer

    “It’s probably Nolan Arenado. He makes all the plays and has more range than any third baseman I’ve ever seen. He also has maybe the best left-side infield arm I can remember. Javier Baez is 1A for me and I’m lucky I get to watch him every single day. Jason Heyward is the other one. Never ever makes a bad decision in the outfield.”

    Preston Wilson, former MLB player, current TV broadcaster

    Rey Ordoñez was great because there was no play he didn’t think he could make and he was one of the first guys I saw to make off-platform throws look easy.  The other would be Ozzie Smith.  He always knew where he was in relation to everything on the field. When I saw him take ground balls and throw to bases without looking, I was blown away. And it makes total sense because the bases never move, but to see somebody do that with supreme confidence and accuracy is something that you never forget. He might actually be a wizard.

    Derrek Lee was just as good if not better than Keith Hernandez. And I have a good one for you. The best catcher I ever saw was my uncle Collis. The best outfielder was my Uncle Stevie.  Collis was the first catcher I ever saw to throw from his knees. He had a cannon!”

    Jim Duquette, former MLB general manager, current XM MLB radio show host

    Andruw Jones – no one was better at playing shallow CF, and positioned as well and covered as much ground, and knew where the ball was going before anyone else, than Jones. He did it so gracefully, that most of the time it didn’t look like he gave the effort.

    It used to drive me crazy, the ball is headed to the gap and there he is, with his glove open two seconds longer than anyone else, like he’s catching it in his back pocket.”

    Gar Ryness, aka “Batting Stance Guy”

    “Maybe someone in NBA was stronger than Karl Malone but I just assumed he was strongest because of how everyone discussed his strength. Maybe there was a better fielder than Ozzie Smith but my own eyes and everyone else convinced me he was the best fielder.”

    Dave Wills, Rays radio play-by-play broadcaster

    “I was working for the White Sox when Omar Vizquel and Roberto Alomar were working their magic and I’m not sure I’ve seen a better defensive shortstop than Vizquel. But I probably have to stick with the home team and go with Kevin Kiermaier. His jumps on gappers are as good as I’ve ever seen. His routes are also very efficient and on many occasions, he is actually pulling up on balls that most people would have to dive for. He can come in and go back on baseballs very well and has an above-average arm too. He also works at his craft to stay at the top of the defensive charts.”

    Ron Darling, former MLB pitcher, current Mets TV analyst

    “Keith Hernandez and Don Mattingly in the majors. But in the minors, it was Tom O’Malley. It was the first series I ever saw as a professional.  Straight out of Yale.  He was the best player offensively and defensively on the field.  One diving play after another.  He was 19.”

    Note: O’Malley went on to play nine major league seasons for six teams from 1982 to 1990.

    C.J. Nitkowski, former MLB pitcher, current Rangers TV analyst

    Kimera Bartee (who played for the Tigers, Reds, and Rockies from 1996 to 2001). KB had as quick of a first step as anyone who I had ever seen or ever played with. Combine that with his great speed and ability to anticipate and you’ve created the perfect formula for a center fielder with as good as range as you will ever see.”

    Jim Bowden, former MLB general manager, current XM radio host, writer for The Athletic

    Andruw Jones was the best defensive center fielder I ever saw. He took away the singles in front of him and had above-average range to all directions. I’ve never seen another center fielder get to baseballs, let alone catch them like he was able to. He was instrumental in helping get his starting pitchers to the Hall of Fame.”

    Adnan Virk, studio host, DAZN, MLB Network, NHL Network

    Roberto Alomar was magical at second base. He had a flair for the dramatic and the spectacular.”

    John Dewan, owner, Sports Info Solutions

    Ozzie Guillen, who joined the White Sox the year that we started STATS Inc. He was such a character, just a hot dog on the field. But his defensive ability was something to behold. And I always thought, ‘if we could properly measure defensive analytics, we can find out how good he is and how good other defensive players are.’”

    Aaron Goldsmith, Mariners radio play-by-play broadcaster

    “I feel like this may be too easy of an answer, but the first name that comes to mind is Matt Chapman. I obviously see him a lot and he makes EVERY play. Coming in on a Dee Gordon bunt, over the shoulder catch in shallow left near the line, long throw from foul ground near third…dude does it ALL. I also measure it based on the fact that if he DOESN’T make the play, I’m literally shocked.”

    Tom Walter, head baseball coach, Wake Forest University

    Stuart Fairchild, our starting CF, (2015-2017) won a Gold Glove in 2017 and was the 38th overall pick by the Cincinnati Reds.  Stu made one of the greatest catches I have ever seen at any level in the ACC tournament in 2016. You can watch it here.”

    Karl Ravech, host, Baseball Tonight on ESPN

    “I’ll stick my nose out for a lunch-pail grinder named Dustin Pedroia. A four-time Gold Glover who made the play up the middle as well as anyone. He killed rallies while diving left and right. Flipped with his glove, threw sidearm. He did whatever it took to prevent a hit and I want him on every team of mine.”

    Bill Parker, co-host “This Week in Baseball History” podcast

    Boring answer, but it’s definitely Ozzie Smith, and what impressed me most was how quickly the ball could go from entering his glove to leaving his throwing hand. It seems to defy physics, but he could jump to catch a high bounce or line drive and have sent it on its way to first before his feet hit the ground again.”

    Mike Bates, co-host “This Week in Baseball History” podcast

    “I believe very strongly that Ozzie Smith is the best defender, relative to his peers, I have ever seen. Part of it, obviously, was his ability to make so many spectacular plays. He simply seemed to be everywhere. He was well positioned and had incredible range, and he just got to far more balls than anyone else. But even beyond that was his ability to make plays well, even routine ones.

    And, as much as we (mostly) rightfully denigrate fielding percentage as a statistic today as a way to measure defensive performance, here,  his eight times leading the NL in it, in tandem with his overwhelming number of chances, reinforce his greatness. He was just so natural-looking out there, so smooth. Like he had been born to play shortstop. His instincts were unfailing and he had such creativity to add to his overall steadiness.

    Now, I’ll be the first to admit that he was helped by all the turf, and that he likely does not measure up to today’s shortstops athletically 40+ years after his debut. The only reason I would hesitate to choose him is that so much of his prime took place before I was an avid fan. But even after that, I remember being in awe.”

    Joe Block, Pirates radio play-by-play broadcaster

    “I suppose Omar Vizquel comes to mind because of his lightning quick hands and flawless footwork. What makes the greats great IMO is that they make the difficult plays look routine and Omar did that … routinely.”

    Jim Morris, former MLB pitcher (movie, “The Rookie” is based on his life)

    Omar Vizquel, because he was defensively immaculate and looked like he was having fun playing.”

    Chris Singleton, former MLB outfielder, current MLB radio broadcaster, ESPN Radio

    Roberto Alomar because he made great plays look so easy.”

    Kevin Connors, ESPN SportsCenter anchor

    “This will not be an original answer. But for a child of the 70’s, who grew up in the 80’s & has covered baseball professionally since the 90’s, there’s but one answer. Ken Griffey Jr. was spectacular. Don Mattingly exquisite. Omar Vizquel was captivating. But Ozzie Smith was extraordinary. Foolproof fundamentally with a flair for the magical. He was a showman, an illusionist, a wizard…and remains one of baseball’s great ambassadors. Thirteen consecutive Gold Gloves at arguably the most difficult position on the diamond — and yet that only begins to tell the story of Ozzie Smith.”

  • Who is the best defender of the 21st century for each AL team?

    By Mark Simon

     We staged a Tournament of Defensive Excellence last week to pick the top defensive player of the 21st century, which we put to votes on Twitter in an NCAA-style competition. Andrelton Simmons edged out Matt Chapman to win the championship.

    This got us to thinking about individual teams and whom we would select as the top defensive player of this century for each franchise. Using a combination of Defensive Runs Saved, Baseball-Reference’s Defensive WAR, Sean Smith’s Total Zone Runs, and general observation, we made a pick for each team. We did the NL teams yesterday, so we’ll do the AL teams today and include links to highlight videos with the players names where we can.

     Baltimore Orioles

    Third baseman Manny Machado is the choice over shortstop J.J. Hardy. Machado had three seasons with at least 15 Runs Saved, finishing in the top two at the position in each of those years. He peaked with 27 Runs Saved there in 2013.

     Boston Red Sox

    This is another one where a tie is necessary given that second baseman Dustin Pedroia has won four Fielding Bible Awards and Mookie Betts has won three. Pedroia led second basemen in Runs Saved twice and has recorded at least 10 Runs Saved six times. Betts is the only player to record at least 30 Runs Saved at an outfield position in two different seasons.

    Chicago White Sox

    “Alexei!! Yes!!” Yeah, we’ll go with Alexei Ramirez (the first-name reference was a callback to the final out of Mark Buehrle’s perfect game). He had three great years from 2010 to 2012 in which he finished among the top four shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved in each season.

    Our runner-ups are Buehrle and Joe Crede. Buehrle won four straight Fielding Bible Awards at pitcher. Crede ranked top-five in Runs Saved by a third baseman three times with the White Sox.

    Cleveland Indians

    With the sincerest of apologies to Francisco Lindor, we’re going to pick catcher Roberto Perez. Lindor is terrific, but he’s only finished in the top five in Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop once in his five-year career. Perez is coming off the best Defensive Runs Saved season by a catcher not named Yadier Molina. The previous five seasons, he put up fantastic numbers as a backup and stood out in pitch framing, pitch blocking, and shutting down the stolen base.

    Detroit Tigers

    Highly-popular third baseman Brandon Inge was also highly adept at the hot corner. In 2006, the Tigers won the AL pennant. Inge was a key player on that team both with his bat and his glove, as he led third basemen with 21 Runs Saved. Inge followed that up with 17 more the next season. In all, he had four seasons with at least 10 Runs Saved at the hot corner and saved eight at catcher in 2003 before converting to the infield full-time. We’ll take him over Placido Polanco and Austin Jackson.

    Houston Astros

    If you didn’t follow the Astros in the 2000s, you probably didn’t realize how good their shortstop Adam Everett was, because he rarely made the highlights for his hitting. Everett’s 34 Runs Saved in 2006 were the most at the position until Simmons had 40 in 2017. His 110 Runs Saved from 2003 to 2007 were the most of any player. He’s the choice over outfielders Jake Marisnick and Richard Hidalgo.

    Kansas City Royals

    We’re going to pick Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain in tandem here, perhaps a cop-out, but also a testament to how good both were. Gordon is a four-time Fielding Bible Award winner in left field, routinely posting great numbers with both his glove and his arm. Cain won the first of his three Fielding Bible Awards with the Royals and had three straight seasons with at least a dozen Runs Saved in center field. Playing side by side, they won a championship with the Royals in 2015.

     Los Angeles Angels 

    We’re going to go Andrelton Simmons here for all the obvious reasons (he won our Tournament of Defensive Excellence, he’s about to pass Adrian Beltre for most Runs Saved, and he has the single-season mark for most Runs Saved, though Darin Erstad makes a compelling case too.

    In the three seasons prior to the invention of Runs Saved, Erstad recorded 29, 14, and 39 Total Zone Runs (a stat that existed prior to DRS). Those are staggering totals. Erstad never replicated that in Runs Saved, perhaps because of injuries and his move to first base (where he did win a Gold Glove).

     Minnesota Twins

    Center fielder Torii Hunter led the position in Runs Saved in 2003 and 2004, the first two years of existence for the stat, and he probably would have led it in one of the three previous seasons had the stat existed then. The choice here was between Hunter and Byron Buxton and the feeling was that Hunter proved his greatness over a longer period of time than Buxton has to this point.

    New York Yankees

    Outfielder Brett Gardner ranks sixth in Defensive Runs Saved, a stat that dates to 2003. That makes him better than all but one outfielder in that span (Jason Heyward) and it’s fair to say that makes him better than any Yankees player within that time. We won’t deny the greatness of Mark Teixeira at first base, but Gardner’s consistent excellence merit his selection here.

    Oakland Athletics

    Third baseman Matt Chapman lost to Andrelton Simmons in the Finals of our Tournament of Defensive Excellence. That he made it that far is probably a tribute to both his greatness and to recency bias. Nonetheless, he’s simply too good not to pick, having led the majors in Runs Saved at third base in each of his first three seasons. He has more Runs Saved the last three seasons than any other third baseman has in the last five. Yes, Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez are also good choices, but it’s Chapman who emerges on top.

    Seattle Mariners

    Ichiro Suzuki won 10 Gold Gloves (and three Fielding Bible Awards) in his illustrious career and currently ranks second in Defensive Runs Saved among right fielders. It’s a close call, but we’ll pick him over Adrian Beltre, Brendan Ryan and Kyle Seager. Perhaps it’s a sentimental choice (it helps that Beltre won for another team), but Ichiro’s numbers help make the pick a little easier. From 2003 to 2006, Ichiro averaged 15.5 Runs Saved per season and totaled 30 in 2004 to lead right fielders. In his prime, his arm was feared for its strength and its accuracy and he made many great plays with his glove.

    Tampa Bay Rays

    On a per-inning basis, you could make the case that there’s no one better or more valuable in the field than Kevin Kiermaier. Staying on the field has been challenging for Kiermaier, but he’s played enough to be labeled the Rays best defender of the 21st century. His 111 Runs Saved in center field are the most in MLB over the last five seasons. You could make cases for Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford but neither has a stat that matches up with that one.

    Texas Rangers

    It’s Adrian Beltre again, and it’s a testament to his excellence that he was a) selected as the defensive face of the 21st century for two teams (Dodgers being the other) and b)was picked here, despite his time here representing the back end of his career. Beltre saved 57 runs in eight seasons manning the hot corner, leading the majors in Runs Saved at the position in 2016. He was a little more consistently good than Ian Kinsler or Elvis Andrus, which is why we put him No. 1.

    Toronto Blue Jays

    There are three worthy options here in second baseman Orlando Hudson, and outfielders Alex Rios and Kevin Pillar. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here. I’ll go Pillar for an intangible factor – fans of his dress up in Superman costumes as a salute to his defensive excellence. He did save 52 runs in center field in a three-year stretch from 2015 to 2017. Only Kevin Kiermaier saved more there in that time.

  • Who’s best/worst at going left and right?

    By ALEX VIGDERMAN

    We just finished up our first ever Tournament of Defensive Excellence, with Andrelton Simmons coming out on top as the best defensive player of the 21st century via a series of Twitter polls. He bested Matt Chapman in the finals in a battle of modern titans.

    When you think about players at that level of skill, you don’t find too many aspects of glovework that they struggle with. Neither Simmons nor Chapman have rated as below average in any Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) component over their careers, and that could be said about many of the top defenders who graced that competition.

    Most players, however, have some kind of imbalance in their skill set. They might have an outstanding throwing arm but handle called pitches poorly (in the case of catchers).

    Today we’ll take a look at infielders who do much better going to one side than the other.

    Biggest Differences Between Runs Saved to Left and Right
    2017-19 Infielders 

    PlayerPositionTo His LeftTo His RightDifference
    Xander BogaertsSS1-3839
    Tim AndersonSS-26329
    Nolan Arenado3B29128
    Jean SeguraSS-121325
    Jed Lowrie2B-15924
    Matt Olson1B02323
    Joey Votto1B52722
    Daniel Murphy2B2-1820
    Rougned Odor2B10-1020
    Alcides EscobarSS-21-120

    Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts is as far from an ambi-turner as you can get. He has cost Boston 38 runs on plays to his right (generally in the SS-3B hole) over the last three seasons.

    Bogaerts’ defensive narrative changed a few years into his career, partially affected by his positioning.

    Xander Bogaerts Career Defensive Runs Saved Splits at SS

    SeasonsTo His LeftTo His RightRangeThrowing
    2013-16-2-1110-26
    2017-191-38-28-8

    Through 2016, he was relatively balanced directionally, while he struggled much more with throwing than range. Since then, he’s performed quite poorly on plays to his right, and his misadventures have been more about range than throwing. Part of that has to do with being positioned more up-the-middle than the average shortstop, making him less likely to even get to balls in the SS-3B hole in the first place.

    One player who’s on the other side of the ledger is Nolan Arenado, who was upset in the second round as a 2-seed in the Tournament of Defensive Excellence. Over his career, Arenado has saved 68 runs on plays to his left, compared to 10 on plays to the right.

    As opposed to Bogaerts, Arenado has been quite consistent in his profile over the years. On just plays to his left, he’s saved at least four runs with range every year, saving as many as twelve (in both his first and most recent season, interestingly). On those plays, he’s saved between two and three runs in all but two seasons.

    Arenado’s excellence moving to his left has to do with his forehand glovework. His 93.7% success rate on forehand plays is the highest among third basemen over the last three seasons.

    Most Successful Third Basemen on Forehand Plays, 2017-19
    Minimum 750 Opportunities

    PlayerSuccess Rate
    Nolan Arenado93.7%
    Todd Frazier93.5%
    Justin Turner92.5%
    Travis Shaw92.3%
    Anthony Rendon91.8%
    Jose Ramirez91.8%

    Fans of Arenado might be a little bit surprised that he only rates as average on plays to his right (typically balls hit down the line). One reason for that might be that he has a flair for the dramatic, making us think he’s more outstanding than he is. He’s attempted to barehand 123 balls over the last three seasons, almost doubling the next third baseman (Travis Shaw, 63), and his 49% success rate on those plays also tops the position.

  • Who’s the best defender of the 21st century for each NL team?

    By Mark Simon

    We staged a Tournament of Defensive Excellence last week to pick the top defensive player of the 21st century, which we put to votes on Twitter in an NCAA-style competition. Andrelton Simmons edged out Matt Chapman to win the championship.

    This got us to thinking about individual teams and whom we would select as the top defensive player of this century for each franchise. Using a combination of Defensive Runs Saved, Baseball-Reference’s Defensive WAR, Sean Smith’s Total Zone Runs, and general observation, we made a pick for each team. We’ll do the National League teams today and include links to highlight videos with the players names.

    Arizona Diamondbacks

    Infielder Craig Counsell is the pick here (Brewers video, sorry!), just ahead of Nick Ahmed. We’ll reward Counsell for his 30 Defensive Runs Saved at second base in 2005 (which remains tied for the most at the position in a season) which he followed with a 20-Runs Saved season at shortstop in 2006.

    Cubs bench coach Andy Green said he modeled his defensive game after Counsell’s because Counsell always seemed to know where he needed to be to make a play. That’s good enough for us.

    Atlanta Braves

    We’ll go with both shortstop Andrelton Simmons and center fielder Andruw Jones, just ahead of Jason Heyward. Simmons won our 32-player Tournament of Defensive Excellence as the best defensive player of the 21st century, so that speaks for itself.

    Jones lost to Simmons in the semifinals, but we’re not going to discount the eight Gold Gloves he won during the decade (among 10 overall) nor the three times in the 2000s that he led the NL in Defensive WAR (which used Total Zone Runs Saved, a predecessor to DRS).

    Chicago Cubs

    Infielder Javier Baez won our Fielding Bible Award for multi-positional play three times and tied for the major league lead in Runs Saved by a shortstop in 2019, so he’s our pick, ahead of Anthony Rizzo. Baez has proven to be so great at defensive wizardry, enough to earn the nickname “El Mago” or “The Magician.”

    Cincinnati Reds

    There are a few options here. We’re going to pick center fielder Billy Hamilton over second baseman Brandon Phillips and first baseman Joey Votto. Hamilton had four seasons with at least 10 Runs Saved, finishing in the top eight among center fielders in each of those. Phillips would likely be the sentimental choice among Reds fans because of the many great plays he made, but overall we gauge Hamilton’s impact as a little greater.

    Colorado Rockies

    Third baseman Nolan Arenado is the pick ahead of Troy Tulowitzki, though if you wanted to call this a draw, we wouldn’t object. Arenado has averaged 15 Runs Saved per season in his seven-year career. He’s won three Fielding Bible Awards and led third basemen in Runs Saved twice. Tulowitzki is certainly no slouch. He won three Fielding Bible Awards at shortstop. His 31 Runs Saved in 2007 are the fourth-most at the position in a season.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    There’s only two years of Defensive Runs Saved data for third baseman Adrian Beltre with the Dodgers, but given that he saved 25 and 22 runs, good for second-most at third base in 2003 and 2004, we feel comfortable picking him as the top Dodgers defender. There were certainly other worthy candidates, including first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and catchers Yasmani Grandal and Russell Martin, but Beltre is too good to pass up.

    Miami Marlins

    The eye test and the numbers don’t match well for a number of Marlins, including those who won Gold Gloves in the 21st century. It feels like we should probably take Adeiny Hechavarria, Luis Castillo, Derrek Lee or Mike Lowell but would you crush us for taking Giancarlo Stanton?

    Yes Stanton made a lot of mistakes in right field, especially in the early part of his career. But he was top five in Runs Saved there three times as a Marlin, peaking with 11 Runs Saved in his final season with the team. He’s the team’s all-time leader in the stat.

    We’re guessing Marlins fans will not like this one, but that’s our pick.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Center fielder Lorenzo Cain has been with the Brewers for only two seasons, but he’s won two Fielding Bible Awards in that time at a premium position. He’s forcing his hand on this one with how good he’s been. He led NL center fielders in Runs Saved in 2018 and finished second in 2019, matching the single-season record for home run robberies in the process.

    New York Mets

    Similar to the Twins, this one comes down to a couple of center fielders. In this case, we’ll take Juan Lagares over Carlos Beltran. Lagares had three seasons as good or better than Beltran’s best defensive season with the Mets, saving 25 runs in 2013, 25 more in 2014, and 17 in 85 games in 2017. He finished in the top three at that position in each of those seasons.

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Chase Utley ranks tied for eighth in total Defensive Runs Saved and most of that was done in a Phillies uniform from 2003 to 2015. Utley and Mark Ellis were the standard setters at second base. Utley’s 30 Runs Saved at the position in 2008 are still tied for the most at the position in a season. His fake-and-throw to help win Game 5 of the 2008 World Series against the Rays is still talked about by Phillies fans.

    There’s no one close to Utley on the Phillies. His former double play partner Jimmy Rollins would probably be next in line, though for the short term (2000 to 2002), third baseman Scott Rolen was pretty great too.

    Pittsburgh Pirates

    Shortstop Jack Wilson edges out three-time left field leader in Defensive Runs Saved, Starling Marte, here. Wilson saved 32 runs in 2005, then 23 more in only 75 games in 2009 before being traded to the Mariners. He ended up leading the majors in Runs Saved as a shortstop that season with 28. Wilson was noted for making plays deep in the shortstop-third base hole, taking away base hits in high numbers.

    San Diego Padres

    Tony Gwynn Jr. and Adrian Gonzalez make for formidable options, but what catcher Austin Hedges has done the last three seasons beats out anything any Padres player has done. Hedges’ 52 Runs Saved are the most at the position in that time. He was the top pitch-framer by a considerable margin in 2019. The Padres are much better when he’s behind the plate than when one of his backups is.

    San Francisco Giants

    Asking Giants fans whom they would pick among shortstop Brandon Crawford or catcher Buster Posey seems the baseball equivalent of asking which child they would prefer. Since there’s no harm in it, let’s pick them both.

    Crawford had back-to-back years of 22 and 25 Runs Saved in 2015 and 2016 and had a four-year run in which he ranked among the top five in that stat at shortstop. Posey led catchers in Runs Saved in 2015 and 2016 and has five other seasons ranking in the top five at catcher. His 121 career Runs Saved rank third among catchers behind Yadier Molina and Russell Martin since 2003.

     St. Louis Cardinals

    Yadier Molina is the all-time leader in Defensive Runs Saved for a catcher and that trumps anything that any other Cardinals player has done in this time. Molina has cemented a reputation as one of the best defensive catchers of all-time with his pitch-framing, pitch-blocking, and stolen base deterrence. On a lot of other teams, Albert Pujols or Scott Rolen would have done enough to be the pick, but not with this franchise. It’s Yadi, loud and clear.

    Washington Nationals

    In a couple years, the answer is probably going to be Victor Robles, who led all center fielders in Runs Saved in 2019. But for now, we’ll say Michael Taylor, who has played a very solid outfield in the limited time he’s played, totaling 31 Run Saved. Taylor saved 12 runs in 2017 and 13 in 2018, playing about two-thirds of a season in both years. He probably would have contended for a Fielding Bible Award if he’d played more, as he was a pitcher’s friend with how well he chased balls down and threw runners outs.

  • Stat of the Week: Andrelton Simmons wins Tournament of Defensive Excellence

    By Mark Simon

    After a week of intense competition in Twitter polls,
    Andrelton Simmons won the SIS
    Tournament of Defensive Excellence, as the best defensive player of the 21st
    century.
    He survived our 32 player field, beating Mark Buehrle, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Andruw Jones, and
    then Matt Chapman in head-to-head voting matchups.

    Simmons was set to pass Adrian Beltre as the all-time
    leader in Defensive Runs Saved this season. He’s at 193, nine off the lead, in
    nearly 10,000 fewer innings than Beltre played. Defensive Runs Saved dates back
    to 2003, but even if we go back to 2000, Simmons is the leader in
    Baseball-Reference.com’s Defensive Wins Above Replacement, ahead of Beltre and Yadier
    Molina.

    We should have known in 2012 that we would be talking
    about Simmons as one of the game’s great defenders. That season he saved 19 runs
    defensively … in only 49 games. That was the second-highest total for a shortstop in MLB. He
    led all shortstops in Runs Saved in four of the next six seasons and finished second in the other two. Last season, Simmons played only 102 games at
    shortstop due to an ankle injury, but still finished a highly-respectable
    fifth. His six-year run of Fielding Bible Award wins was snapped.

    Simmons has the single-season record for Runs Saved at any position with
    40 in 2017. If you want to learn more about how that happened,
    click here. It
    was basically the result of being equally amazing on balls hit in the
    shortstop-third base hole and against balls hit up the middle. That’s
    really hard to do.

    The signature for Simmons has been fielding balls hit to his right.
    Over the last seven seasons, he’s 98 plays above average against them.
    His rate of getting outs on balls hit to his right was 65% compared to the MLB
    average of 57%. More specifically, year-in and year-out, what Simmons brings is
    consistency. He’s been at least 10 plays above average on balls hit to his right
    in six of the last seven seasons.

    Simmons’ rate of double play conversions is also
    consistent. Since 2012, he’s saved 20 runs when considering his double play
    rate and volume. The closest shortstop to that is Alexei Ramirez at 11 Runs
    Saved.

    Lastly, since 2012 Simmons has saved 16 runs from Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays. These are based on the observations of our Video Scouts who have about 30 types of Good Plays and about 60 types of Misplays to choose from when there is a specific type of consequence on a play—recording an unexpected out or denying a baserunner advancement on Good Fielding Plays, and the loss of an out or allowing baserunner advancement on Defensive Misplays.

    There are three types of Good Fielding Plays in which Simmons’ performance has far exceeded expectations. Simmons has 29 assists to throw out
    baserunners in non-relay situations against an expected total of 15. He has 34
    “Quick double play pivots” against an expected total of 14, and 20 instances of
    “Started a double play quickly” against an expected total of 15. Those three types of Good Fielding Plays account
    for a good chunk of those 16 Runs Saved.

    Simmons has been the best player at arguably the hardest
    position to play in baseball pretty much since the first time he played in a
    game for the Braves. Maybe 25 years from now, someone will have come along to
    pass Simmons, but for now, he’s the voters’ choice for best defensive player of the 21st century.

  • Defense in-depth: Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto

    By NICK RABASCO

    As we wait for the MLB season to start, I thought it might be interesting to do defensive scouting reports on some notable players.

    You’ve likely read scouting reports that cover the strengths and weaknesses of a player as a hitter or baserunner, but you probably don’t know much about their defense, other than maybe that they’re a good defender or a bad defender. I’m here to help.

    I’m a former collegiate baseball player at East Stroudsburg University working at SIS as a Senior Video Scout. I watched a lot of baseball in 2019 and am familiar with the MLB player universe at an advanced level.

    So let’s start by looking at a couple of young stars– Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto. What do they do well? What do they need work on?

    These reports are based on considerable video study from the 2019 season.

    Ronald Acuña Jr.

    Acuña is an exciting young player that has room for improvement defensively.

    He tends to struggle to get great reads and jumps on balls hit in front of him. He ends up being forced to adjust his routes on these plays. He also plays too aggressively at times, as he dives and slides for some balls that he has no chance to catch.

    Luckily, Acuña possesses great speed that helps make up for some of his shaky routes and bad reads. Another weakness is that a few too many balls clank off his glove on plays that are 50/50. It seems like his head may be moving too much when he is sprinting towards a ball, causing the ball to look like it’s moving.

    One of his strengths is getting to balls that are behind him. He tends to get better jumps on these balls and has a good sense of where the warning track and wall are, especially for his age. He also has a tremendous arm that can play at any outfield spot.

    In summary: Acuña is an exciting outfielder that should be able to stay in center field until his speed starts to abandon him a little bit.

    The analytics: Acuña finished tied for 16th among outfielders with 11 Defensive Runs Saved. He saved 3 runs in left field, 3 runs in center field, and 5 runs in right field.

    Juan Soto

    Soto is a solid left fielder that lacks elite speed but makes up for it with a good feel for the position. He still makes some mistakes that you would expect a young player to make, like being too aggressive with dives on balls hit in front of him. He also tries to deceive runners by flashing his glove a bit too much on balls that could be trying to catch.

    Soto has an advanced feel for the warning track and wall, as he made a bunch of leaping catches at the wall last year, both on balls hit behind and on balls hit to his right in foul territory. He struggles more on hard-hit balls behind him, as his first step is often in on these, which is to be expected for a younger player.

    His routes are much better and smoother when going laterally, rather than back or in. His arm is not very strong, and it’s easy to see why he has stayed in left field.

    In summary: Soto should be able to be a steady left fielder for a while who won’t save a ton of runs but also won’t cost many either.

    The analytics: Soto finished with 0 Defensive Runs Saved last season. He saved 6 runs with Range & Positioning, which tied for fourth among left fielders, but his arm cost him five runs (the other run lost came from Good Fielding PLays & Defensive Misplays).

  • You won’t see a better pitch: The most dominant curveballs

    By Mark Simon

    We paid tribute to the changeup last week – looking at some of the best a pitcher had and what that pitch was like on that pitcher’s best day. Today, we move on to the curveball, a pitch that can make hitters look silly, both by inducing wild swings and freezing hitters unable to adjust to the change in speed and movement that they see.

    We went through season statlines for the time we’ve been tracking this thoroughly (since 2004) and picked seven pitchers whose curveballs performed amazingly well, then found what that pitch was like at its very best. We’ve detailed that below

    Ben Sheets

    One game to remember: May 16, 2004 (Brewers vs Braves)

    Sheets’ Line: 9 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 18 K, 1 BB

    The curveball: 39 strikes on 44 pitches(!), 14 misses on 30 swings; Braves 0-for-18, 14 K against it

     This is the very best curveball game in our system and is arguably the best pitch thrown in any game of any type. Sheets was dealing that day, setting a Brewers single-game record with 18 strikeouts. There was nothing wasted for Sheets, who totaled only 116 pitches. Home plate umpire Doug Eddings, long known as a pitcher-friendly umpire, showed a wide plate early on and Sheets took full advantage. Braves hitters were left to flail away and had little chance against the sharp-breaking hook.

    “His strike efficiency ratio was huge,” said Brewers manager Ned Yost with a smile. “That’s a big word. I don’t know what it means, but he was throwing a lot of strikes.”

     A.J. Burnett

     One game to remember:  April 22, 2005 (Marlins vs Reds)

    Burnett’s line: 6 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 13 K, 5 BB

    The curveball: 28 strikes on 45 pitches, 14 misses on 15 swings(!); Reds 0-for-12, 12 K against it

    Okay, so this is far from Burnett’s best start overall given that he allowed two runs and walked five, but we’re talking about best performances by one pitch, and this one is ridiculous.

    Reds hitters swung at 15 Burnett curves and missed on 14 of them! That pitch must have had some kind of movement that day.

    “Thank god I had a curveball,” Burnett told reporters afterwards. “Some of the at-bats, they were sitting on it and it was still pretty good.”

     Erik Bedard

    One game to remember: July 20, 2007 (Orioles vs Athletics)

    Bedard’s line: 7 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 11 K, 3 BB

    The curveball: 30 strikes on 38 pitches, 10 misses on 21 swings; Athletics 0-for-13, 8 K against it

    Erik Bedard’s curveball is one that might be forgotten, perhaps because he preferred to stay out of the limelight and didn’t talk to the press much during his 11-year career, and because his career swung abruptly to decline phase. But in 2007 Bedard was one of the top young pitchers in baseball and his curveball dominated. In this game, he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

    “The guy is dominating and he’s making it look easy and he’s throwing all his pitches for strikes,” said Orioles manager Dave Trembley.

    Games like this were what made Bedard look like a future star. The Orioles wound up trading him at just the right time, netting prospects Adam Jones and Chris Tillman in a deal with the Mariners. Bedard’s curveball would pay off for them in more ways than one.

    Adam Wainwright

    One game to remember: July 1, 2009 (Cardinals vs Giants)

    Wainwright’s line:  9 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 12 K, 3 BB

    The curveball: 27 strikes on 36 pitches, 11 misses on 23 swings; Giants 0-for-16, 10 K against it

    Yeah, we know we could pick Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS when Adam Wainwright sent the Cardinals to the World Series by striking out Carlos Beltran on the best curveball of his life. But we’re looking for games with sustained dominance and that one doesn’t meet that criteria.

    This one is pretty good, a game in which Wainwright went nine, but got a no-decision because the game went extra innings. His 12 strikeouts, 10 of which came with the curveball, were a career high.

    One point made by Post-Dispatch writer Derrick Goold that is an underrated factor in looking at curveball success was that Wainwright was helped by the “nimbleness” of Yadier Molina, who could adeptly block any hook that Wainwright spiked. Catchers deserve credit for good curveballs too.

    Charlie Morton

    One game to remember:  June 25, 2014 (Pirates vs Rays)

    Morton’s line: 7 IP, 3 R, 4 H, 11 K, 1 BB

    The curveball:  22 of 34 for strikes, 12 misses on 18 swings; Rays 0-for-11, 8 K against it

     You could pick any number of starts from Morton’s 2019 season, as he held opponents to a .151 batting average with the curveball and recorded 275outs with the pitch, the most with a curveball by any pitcher in MLB.

    What’s funny though is that Morton’s single best start with the curveball (in terms of outs recorded without allowing a baserunner) came against his former team when he was with the Pirates. It was then that Morton showed the kind of glimmer that shone brightly the last couple of seasons. Yes, he lost, 5-1 to David Price, but after a shaky beginning in which he allowed three runs in the first inning, Morton was basically untouchable for the last six.

    Morton has since made major refinements to his game, reducing the use of his sinker for a four-seamer that he could throw consistently at 94 to 95 mph. At this point in his career, he’s got the pitch mix that works best for him, which allows the curveball he threw in this start to thrive now.

    Corey Kluber

    One game to remember: August 8, 2017 (Indians vs Rockies)

    Kluber’s line:  9 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 11 K, 0 BB

    The curveball: 26 strikes on 33 pitches, 13 misses on 22 swings; Rockies 0-for-13, 7 K against it

    This start was peak Corey Kluber, though it was a bit overshadowed by the Indians scoring four runs with two outs in the ninth inning to win the game. Had that not happened, Kluber would have suffered a 1-0 loss despite one of the best starts of his career. This was the 13th start in a 14-start run in which he struck out at least eight hitters in each game. He’s the only pitcher known to do that who isn’t named Pedro Martinez (had a 16 and a 15-start streak) and Randy Johnson (a 17, a 15, and a 14).

    Kluber had a lot of starts like this in 2017. Opponents went 26-for-256 with 143 strikeouts in at-bats against his curveball that season. By Fangraphs’ pitch value stat, which measures how effectively a pitch saves runs, his curveball that season saved more runs than any other curveball in the last 16 seasons.

    Lance McCullers

    One game to remember: 2017 ALCS Game 7 (Astros vs Yankees)

    McCullers’ line: 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 6 K, 1 BB

    The curveball: 31 strikes on 41 curveballs, 10 misses on 26 swings, Yankees 1-for-12, 6 K against it

    So as we’ve been doing this, we’ve looked for starts and we’ve looked for ones in which the pitcher didn’t allow a baserunner. But we’ve made all the exceptions here for the four scoreless innings of relief by McCullers in the winner-take-all Game 7 of the ALCS. McCullers threw 41 curveballs among his 54 pitches, including the last 24 pitches he threw in the game. The Yankees managed a harmless single, but nothing more.  Of the 12 outs he got to earn the save, 11 came with the curveball, a pitch that got an endorsement from the highest of sources.

    “It’s special to watch,” said Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan afterwards.

    The same could be said of all of these listed.

  • Could a shortened MLB season give us surprising contenders?

    By ALEX VIGDERMAN

    A lot about the 2020 MLB season is uncertain.

    When will it start?

    How many games will be played?

    Will they play at all?

    If they do play, is there a chance the structure of games is modified to fit in a more representative number of games?

    Let’s assume there is a season, but it’s something notably short of a full one. The fun part about a shortened season (acknowledging that we’re talking about less fun overall) is that there’s a much greater chance of a team sneaking into the playoff picture that you wouldn’t have expected. We see more upsets in five-game series than we do in seven-game series, so what about an 81-game season versus a full one?

    Let’s see just how much a short season could throw things off, and how the shorter the season gets, the more chaos we might see.

    For this exploration I created simulated seasons by drawing random games from the actual 2019 game-by-game results. The simulated seasons have durations ranging from 162 all the way down to 27. Because I didn’t have the time or inclination to do these simulations with fully-balanced schedules, some teams ended up with more or fewer games than the target number. To balance that out a bit, I simulated 200 seasons of each length and only used the 100 most balanced.

    Once I had 100 simulated seasons of a given number of games per team, I took a rough estimate of the playoff-worthy teams by taking the top 10 teams by win percentage in each pseudo-season. Because these are all simulations anyway, I made the perfect-sphere-rolling-down-a-frictionless-inclined-plane of baseball seasons by removing divisions and just labeling the top 10 teams by win percentage as playoff caliber. Last season, for example, that would have put the Indians in the playoffs and left the Brewers out.

    Here’s one way to think about how shortening the season might affect competitive balance. For each season duration, how many teams would make the “playoffs” at least once in a hundred simulations? At least ten times? Twenty?

    Teams That Made the Playoffs at Least N Times in 100 Simulations

    By Number of Games in Season

    Season Length

    Made Playoffs
    Once

    Made Playoffs
    10 Times
    Made Playoffs
    20 Times
    27 Games28 Teams21 Teams15 Teams
    54 Games23 Teams16 Teams15 Teams
    81 Games19 Teams15 Teams12 Teams
    108 Games16 Teams13 Teams12 Teams
    135 Games15 Teams11 Teams11 Teams
    * “Playoffs” meaning that the team ranked among the top 10 teams by Win%

     

    So what do we get from this table?

    • Shorter seasons give bottom-feeders a fighting chance. While half the league made the “playoffs” at least once in a hundred 135-game seasons, every team but two made it at least once in a 27-game season (sorry Tigers and Marlins fans).
    • If you want something more than a fighting chance, you really do have to be a better-than-average team even in a ridiculously short season. Even in a preposterously short season, only half the league had even a one-in-five shot at making the “playoffs.”
    • If we are looking at a nice clean half season, the middle class of teams should expect to have a shot, but we should really just focus our attention on the teams that would normally be in Wild Card contention anyway.