Liván Moinelo has been one of the best pitchers in NPB for the SoftBank Hawks for eight seasons. The Cuban played a pivotal role in the Hawks bullpen for multiple seasons as one of the most effective relievers in Japan. When Moinelo was the full-time closer in 2022, he shined with a 1.03 ERA, the second-lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 50 innings, just behind fellow Cuban Raidel Martinez, who has also established himself as one of the best closers in NPB.
In 2023, Moinelo pitched only 27 2/3 innings after arthritis in his left pitching elbow shut him down for the rest of the season in July. He underwent surgery to help fix the inflammation in his joint. For most of the 2023 offseason, the Hawks left him in limbo, contemplating moving him to the starting rotation.
After much debate, around January 2024, SoftBank decided to make the move official, and Moinelo began preparing as a starter.
Moinelo’s Recent Seasons (2022-2024)
| Season |
IP |
SV |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K-BB |
| 2022 |
52. 2/3 |
24 |
1.03 |
312 |
87-20 |
| 2023 |
27 2/3 |
5 |
0.98 |
327 |
37-5 |
| 2024 |
163 |
0 |
1.88 |
161 |
155-47 |
Moinelo’s first season as a starter did not disappoint as he dazzled and showed durability, pitching deep into games and working his way through NPB lineups with his four-pitch mix. Moinelo, with a new starter’s mentality, was not blowing batters away like he had out of the bullpen. He pitched his way to a Pacific League ERA title with a 1.88 ERA in 163 innings pitched.
Notably, his 1.88 ERA was the fifth-best in NPB among qualified starters in both leagues. Nonetheless, Moinelo made one of baseball’s best transitions from reliever to starter last season.
Biggest Strength?
Moinelo is a smaller pitcher, at 5-10 154 pounds, but the left-hander throws with a smooth, unhurried delivery with some effort at the end. He also pronates and supinates well, opening up a wide array of options for him in terms of an arsenal.
With a standard four-pitch mix, Moinelo’s pitches are anything but standard with some of the gaudiest stuff in the baseball world. Moinelo had absurd pitch shapes and velocity out of the bullpen.
While he lost some shape and velocity, he reined in his effort this past season to try to pitch deep into games. Moinelo paced himself more than in the past. Only four of his 27 starts were fewer than six full innings.
Moinelo has continued to improve his control over the years. He posted a decent 7% walk rate in 2024 after a 10% in 2022. His K rate was an enormous 43% in 2022, dropping to 24% in 2024. Along with the velocity drop, he pitched to more contact and even ground balls over strikeouts, with a slight dip in his stuff this past season.
If there was an argument in 2022 and 2023 that Moinelo had a plus fastball and change to go with at least two plus or better breaking balls, then in 2024, he had more of a 55 on his changeup and fastball on the 20-80 scouting scale, with a plus curve and above-average slider. Moinelo’s biggest strength is that his arsenal is potent, and he has a feel for all four pitches, throwing enough strikes to be highly effective.
Moinelo sprays the zone more than he possesses command throughout a start. He does have moments when he can concentrate his locations in a specific part of the zone but doesn’t always get to those locations unless he’s locked in.
You can check out the heatmaps and other relevant stats from this NPB Pitch Profiler. Moinelo elevates the four-seam but tries to keep the rest of his arsenal at the knees, though he does have locations that leak up in the zone.
RHB
| PITCH USAGE |
2024 (2023) |
| FASTBALL |
42% (44%) |
| SLIDER |
19% (13%) |
| CHANGEUP |
24% (24%) |
| CURVEBALL |
15% (19%) |
LHB
| PITCH USAGE |
2024 (2023) |
| FASTBALL |
51% (60%) |
| SLIDER |
24% (25%) |
| CHANGEUP |
10% (3%) |
| CURVEBALL |
15% (12%) |
Pitch Velocity (MPH)
| PITCH |
2024 |
2023 |
| FASTBALL |
93 |
95 |
| SLIDER |
86 |
87 |
| CHANGEUP |
83 |
84 |
| CURVEBALL |
78 |
80 |
Mechanics
Moinelo starts with his feet shoulder-width apart, and his first move is a step backward and to the side with his right foot as he slides his left foot across the rubber, settling on more of the 3rd base side. Moinelo will vary his timing and use more of a quick-pitch slide step out of this position or even slow down and twist or dip as he starts his leg lift.
Front Side with dip:
via GIPHY
His initial move into the leg lift and slight drift of forward momentum are consistent when he brings his leg up to chest height. Out of the lift, he turns his lower half back to second base with a slight counter-rotation of his hips as he moves down the slope fluidly, delaying the opening on his front side and hips. Into the front footstrike, Moinelo gets into a strong power position, with his arm and elbow creating a nice, almost 90-degree angle as he flips his arm up from his longer arm swing and loads his power.
Open Side:
via GIPHY
Moinelo lands in an odd position, with his front foot landing slightly open instead of more closed. Hence, he clears his front side and hips more than most pitchers. Energy flows through his body and the kinetic chain really well, and his throwing motion and delivery consistently look relaxed out of his high 3/4s slot. He will even “pimp the finish” with his leg swing coming through, and he will recoil his arm like a whip bringing back slack.
via GIPHY
He can also control his effort and tempo down the mound. As a reliever, he threw with much more effort and an abrupt head snap at the end of his delivery, which impacted his control. As a starter last season, Moielo felt more under control, and while there was still some head snap, it lessened. Even though his velocity diminished overall, he had better control and command and could pound the zone more than before, throwing enough strikes to be successful.
Front Side:
via GIPHY
The Arsenal (2024 usage and Average Velocity)
Four-seam Fastball 45%, 93 mph CSW% 27% STRIKE% 66%
Moinelo throws a four-seam with great ride. He targets the top part of the zone mainly against RHBs but also tries to throw his four-seam up and away from LHBs, coming across his body. Moinelo’s move to the rotation came with a loss of two ticks in his fastball velo as he sat more 91-93 rather than 95. Moinelo is most comfortable throwing cross-body to LHBs, making it hard for hitters to turn on his fastball.
via GIPHY
Righties, as suspected, had a way more comfortable at-bat against Moinelo, hitting all 7 of the home runs that Moinelo allowed.
Opponents vs Moinelo Fastball
|
LHB |
RHB |
| OPS |
.569 |
.727 |
| HR |
0 |
7 |
via GIPHY
Moinelo’s four-seam is susceptible to home runs, especially to righties, because of his lack of command at times, as he will yank a pitch down and in to a right-handed batter or have a pitch leak more arm side and middle. He also often goes to the four-seam in both first-pitch and two-strike counts.
2024 Count Usage
| Pitch |
1st Pitch Usage |
2-Strike Usage |
| Fastball |
46% |
43% |
| Slider |
15% |
22% |
| Changeup |
17% |
21% |
| Curveball |
22% |
14% |
He leans on the pitch, which returns a plus 19% whiff rate and a plus 18% putaway rate despite below-average locations. Moinelo would rather live with some damage than give in during certain at-bats. However, with the depth of his arsenal, it is a specific choice given his overall average control and command.
Considering that the rest of his arsenal produces more ground balls, he would still rather lose on his fastball late and early in counts than on one of his other pitches. It gets hit hard the most as hitters sit on the pitch. He had a 29% hard-hit rate on the fastball in 2024 but a 40% hard-hit rate against righties, compared to 15% for lefties.
With an average 27% called strike and whiff rate, he gets fewer called strikes than most pitchers because his 19% whiff rate is above-average to plus for NPB. So, hitters are either swinging underneath his fastball or doing decent damage. However, his fastball still has great vertical movement out of his high 3/4 slot. He needs to be more fine with the pitch and his release point. He could fix this damage issue by getting the fastball into the upper part of the zone more.
via GIPHY
Slider 21%, 86 mph CSW% 31% STRIKE% 69%
Moinelo’s slider is a tight gyro slider that he can manipulate and turn more into a cutter rather than a slider with depth. He almost exclusively targets down and glove side, trying to bury the pitch back foot to righties and use the movement away from lefties.
He will sprinkle backdoor sliders to RHBs, but the pitch is at its absolute best when he can throw it with depth under the barrel—creating a problematic tunnel to navigate as a hitter. when he can also spot the glove-side fastball. With a 31% whiff rate on the pitch last season, Moinelo can miss up with the pitch and still get a swing and miss. His distribution in terms of usage and variety makes it hard to key in on both of his breaking pitches.
via GIPHY
Moinelo throws the pitch so that he turns the ball and seams, ripping through the two seams on the side of the ball with a tiny spike of his pointer finger and putting pressure on the middle finger and the outside seam. It looks like this:
Moinelo can create a tight circle and a lot of gyro spin, but the depth of his slider depends on how it comes off his fingers. If he gets the release point right, his higher slot and release height allow him to drive the ball toward the lower part of the zone more easily, creating a tough angle as the ball enters the zone.
This angle and the movement away from same-handed hitters make his slider a valuable weapon vs. LHBs since he can pick up whiffs and get hitters to hit the ball down into the ground, with a 60% ground ball rate against lefties on the pitch in 2024.
via GIPHY
Curveball 15%, 78 mph CSW% 38% STRIKE% 65%
Moinelo’s curveball is one of the nastiest pitches in the world. With unbelievable bend, it is a topspin menace in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The pitch doesn’t have a significant loopy quality but is an actual top-to-bottom curve.
Moinelo’s superpower on this type of pitch is his ability to get to the front of the baseball and get the pitch to go over the top of his fingers, creating downward movement from topspin.
Moinelo has a real feel for spinning the baseball and can throw breakers that rival his teammate Carter Stewart Jr. in terms of RPMs. With numbers flashing north of 3,000 RPMs, the pitch has incredible drop, and he can bury it for a chase or drop it in the zone for either strike one or strike three.
The pitch has a 20% putaway rate and a 29% whiff rate, so he can throw it for a chase if needed, especially with two strikes. With a 38% CSW rate, he steals a lot of strikes early in the count, too. He can zone the pitch and has an excellent feel for it given the amount of drop. It has a 65% strike rate.
Being able to zone the pitch is incredibly valuable because of the high fastball and curve tunnel he tries to create with the pitch. He gets a lot of swings in the zone and also freezes hitters with it. When there is a swing, it’s most likely a miss over the top of the ball or results in a groundout, as the pitch had a 77% ground ball rate in 2024.
In comparison, Framber Valdez, who deploys a similar curveball as a lefty and is the ground ball king in MLB, had a 63 GB% on his curve in 2024 with a 40% whiff rate. The two pitchers throw heavy top spin curves around 78-80 mph. Moinelo loves to go to his curve more early than late, but the way he attacks hitters throughout a game will change as he goes deeper, giving batters different looks.
Changeup 19%, 83mph CSW% 35% STRIKE% 65%
The pitch that made Moinelo’s transition to starter a success was his changeup, which is a good combo of depth and horizontal run. Moinelo can turn the pitch over and pronate, getting the pitch to sink from batters and getting weak swings with batters out on their front side. Some swings are silly, with hitters falling over themselves as they tried to ambush a fastball but got the string pulled on them instead.
via GIPHY
With a 55% ground ball rate on the pitch in 2024, he gets a lot of roll-over ground balls to the middle of the infield. Relying on grounders should be a sustainable attribute whether the NBP ball stays dead or not.
Around the horn, SoftBank’s infield had 20 Defensive Runs Saved in 2024, which outpaced every other NPB team by a wide margin, as did its 65 Runs Saved overall.
Moinelo uses his entire arsenal, specifically his curve, and changeup, to induce ground balls, and he has no issue letting his stellar defense behind him gobble up grounders. Moinelo didn’t give up much damage on his changeup. The OPS against it was only .524.
Moinelo can have the pitch come off his hand wrong and hang in the zone more, which is where any damage comes from.
via GIPHY
As a starter, his changeup usage stayed almost identical against RHBs, around 24% the last two seasons, but he increased it against LHBs to 10% in 2024. That was up from 3% in his shortened 2023 and 6% in 2022. Backing off the four-seam a bit and replacing it with his changeup kept Moinelo less predictable deep into games. At its best, the changeup is suitable for either left-handed or right-handed hitters
via GIPHY
Here’s an instance where Moinelo used his changeup against one of the better contact hitters in NPB, Koji Chikamoto, before overpowering him with a fastball, showing a change of pace in this at-bat.
via GIPHY
2025 Season Outlook
Moinelo brilliantly shined as a first-year starter, and with his loud four-pitch mix and propensity for not only strikeouts but ground balls, he is one of the best pitchers in NPB. The next step for Moinelo would be building up his workload and possibly finding the two or so ticks he lost in velocity as a converted reliever.
It’s also worth noting the diminished effort in his delivery helped him throw strikes. There were times when Moinelo tried to get quicker outs with an early curveball or well-located changeup to keep his pitch count down.
You will never see me argue against increasing his curveball usage in favor of his four-seam. I adore the pitch, and he should throw it more. Still, next season will be about adjusting to the league after it adjusts to him.
There are different circumstances surrounding Moinelo’s move to MLB, as he’d need to defect from Cuba to pitch in the majors. But he has the stuff and command to be an impact starter someday if he chooses to make the move.
