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  • A study of pitcher approach with defensive shifts

    BY SAM LINKER

    Defensive shifting has greatly affected baseball since it became a common practice amongst all the teams. A lot of emphasis is placed on a hitter’s capability to beat the shift to keep base hits from being stolen. Pitchers are also greatly affected by the shift, as they now have to pitch with many different defensive alignments that yield different outcomes for the same types of batted balls. 

    This leads to two questions concerning the merits and practice of pitching with the shift:

    1.    Do pitchers change their approach when a shift is in place?

    2.    Does changing their approach prove beneficial to the pitcher?

    I chose to answer these questions using data from 2019-2020, so the data reflect recent trends in pitch usage and in the outcomes of the pitch. 

    By looking at how pitchers utilize their repertoire when there is and is not a shift in place, the difference between each pitch type usage percentage will serve as the basis for defining change in approach. 

    Data

    At Sports Info Solutions, a shift can be classified as either a full or partial shift depending on the positioning of the fielders. For this study, both full and partial shifts will be grouped together as “shifts”.  

    To ensure a sufficient sample of pitches with and without a shift, I chose pitchers who have thrown at least 100 pitches with the shift and 100 pitches without the shift over the span of the 2019 and 2020 seasons. This condition resulted in a sample of 554 pitchers.

    I chose the span of 2019-2020 because I wanted to work with data that reflected the recent state of the shift and how pitchers approach it. Also, I wanted at least a full season worth of data since the 2020 season was shortened. 

    Along with the pitch type and presence of a shift, I also recorded whether the pitch was a strike, whether the ball was in play and whether it was a hit. These three outcome-based stats serve as a way to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher’s change in approach when a shift is in place. 

    Analysis

    The difference in Fastball Usage Percentage is the key pitch type since a positive increase in fastball usage corresponds with a decrease in off-speed pitch usage and vice versa. I chose the fastball since generally, a pitcher’s main pitch is his fastball with breaking balls and off-speed pitches (curveballs, sliders, changeups…) supplementing the fastball. Every pitcher has his own arsenal of off-speed pitches, but the universal use of the fastball makes it the ideal pitch to focus on to help measure change in approach. 

    Table 1 shows the breakdown of fastballs and non-fastballs for a shift or no shift for all pitchers across the two seasons. 

    Table 1: Fastballs v. Non-Fastballs Pitch Usage

    PitchShiftNo Shift
    Fastballs50%53%
    Non-Fastballs50%47%

    Without a shift in place, fastballs are thrown the majority of the time. However, when a shift is in place, fastball usage percentage drops to 50% as non-fastball usage rises. Clearly, Table 1 shows that pitchers are using their fastball less when a shift is in place. In fact, non-fastballs have a usage percentage that is approximately 0.4% greater than fastball usage percentage for shifted at-bats. 

    I also calculated the difference in strike percentage, Ball in Play (BIP) percentage, and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) to see how the shift and pitch usage affected the outcome of  the at bats. 

    The pitchers can be broken into three groups based on their fastball usage difference: pitchers who decrease fastball usage with a shift, pitchers with no difference, and pitchers who increase their fastball usage. To account for normal variance in pitch usage differences, I decided pitchers with no differences will be pitchers who have a 2% difference in fastball usage in either direction of 0%.

    The difference in pitch-usage percentage between a pitch with a shift and a pitch without a shift serves as the key stat in determining the magnitude of a pitcher’s change in approach by pitch usage. A positive difference represents an increase in that pitch’s usage percentage when a shift is in place, and the opposite is true for a negative difference. 

    Table 2 represents the three groups along with some notable pitchers in each grouping. 

    Table 2: Groups by Fastball Usage Difference

    Fastball Usage DifferenceNumber of PitchersNotable Pitchers
    Less than -2%258Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom
    Between -2% and 2% (No Difference)194Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, Trevor Bauer
    Greater than 2%102Chris Sale, Mike Clevinger, Gerrit Cole

    Using the three groups from Table 2, I found the average differences for Strike%, BIP%, and BABIP% for each group. Table 3 contains this information.

    Table 3: Average Result Percentage Differences by Group

    GroupStrike% DifferenceBIP% DifferenceBABIP Difference
    Less than -2%-2%-2%.009
    Between -2% and 2% (No Difference)-2%-2%.011
    Greater than 2%-3%-2%.033

    Based on the data, the magnitude of change in fastball usage has almost no effect on Strike% and BIP% as the values are exactly the same except for the Strike% Difference in the “Greater than 2%” group. However, the difference is only 1% which seems almost insignificant. The BABIP increases with a shift for all three groups, but there is a clear difference in the size of the increase. 

    The “Less than -2%” group and the “No Difference” group have only a 2 point difference in the increase in BABIP when a shift is in place. However, both of these groups’ increase in BABIP is at least 22 points less than the increase in BABIP for the “Greater than 2% group.

    Conclusion

    Using the data and analysis, we can look back to the two questions presented at the beginning and try to answer them. 

    1.    Do pitchers change their approach when a shift is in place?

    In terms of fastball and non-fastball usage, Table 1 implies that the usage does not experience much change. However, Table 1 is based solely on the number of pitches thrown, so some pitchers, mainly starting pitchers, most likely dominate the data set which influences the usage percentages. 

    Table 2 offers a clearer answer to the question as it looks at the usage differences for when a shift is or not in place which lessens the degree of influence that high-volume pitchers have on the data set. Of the three groups, the “Less than -2%” group has the most pitchers which means they are throwing their fastballs less often compared to non-fastballs when a shift is in place. Overall 360 pitchers are in the groups that signal a change in fastball usage while 194 pitchers are in the group that represents generally no change in usage. 

    2.    Does changing their approach prove beneficial to the pitcher?

    According to the data, either having relatively no change in fastball usage or less usage in fastballs yields more favorable results when compared to the pitchers who have a higher usage of fastballs when a shift is in place. 

    The magnitude of the increase in BABIP is much greater for the pitchers who tend to rely on their fastballs more when the defense is shifted. Because of the similarity between less fastball usage and generally no change, this study cannot definitely say that a change in approach is strictly beneficial. 

    However, the data does highlight that recently, pitchers who are increasing their fastball usage with the shift are having less favorable outcomes than those who decrease fastball usage or generally have no change in fastball usage. 

    Further Study

    I mentioned that the data would only focus on the 2019-2020 seasons and provided my reasons why. Thus, the analysis cannot be used to make hard recommendations as it only contains a portion of the data on shifts. The results presented in this study are used to identify recent trends and potential areas to further observe to form recommendations for pitch usage changes. 

    Also, I based the groupings and results on the fastball usage and grouped all other pitches as non-fastballs. 

    For pitchers who have been classified as “No Difference”, this only refers to their fastball usage. They could have different usage percentages among their secondary pitches which would classify them as pitchers who do show change in usage. 

    The same thinking applies to all three groups’ outcome-based statistics. The differences could be explained by changes in secondary pitches, and the groupings could be remade when factoring in usage change on a more specific pitch type level.

  • New baseball podcast: Conversing About Coaching With Rachel Balkovec

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Yankees minor league hitting coach Rachel Balkovec (@_rachelbalkovec), who is currently in Australia working as a coach with the Sydney Blue Sox.

    Rachel talks about how she came to be coaching in Australia (1:46). She then addresses the progress that women have made in baseball and other sports and the challenges women face in light of the Mets firing of their GM (5:24).

    Rachel also talks about the way she connects with players (11:21), the hardest thing to coach athletes on (13:36), and what she studied when she worked with Driveline (14:51). She also speaks about her favorite mentoring story (20:43) and provides perspective on how she viewed 2020 (25:12).

    Thank you for listening. Please rate and review the podcast if you can. You can also find Rachel at RachelBalkovec.com or on Instagram at @Rachel.Balkovec

  • The Blue Jays add a big bat … and glove

    By MARK SIMON

    With a talented group of young players, the Blue Jays seem committed to being in ‘Go For It’ mode for the near term, and they further solidified their roster this week by agreeing to a six-year contract with free agent outfielder George Springer.

    Springer is a three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Award winner who was named the 2017 World Series MVP in a seven-year career with the Astros. From 2016 to 2019 he averaged 31 home runs and 141 games and posted an .859 OPS. He bettered the latter with an .899 OPS in 51 games in the shortened 2020 season.

    Springer will likely be the everyday center fielder for the Blue Jays after splitting time between center and right field through most of his Astros career. The Blue Jays have options with how to align their other outfielders 27-year-old Lourdes Gurriel potentially in left field and 28-year-old Tesocar Hernández in right field.

    Springer should upgrade the Blue Jays outfield defense, which ranked 28th in Defensive Runs Saved last season. He’s saved 13 runs in a little under 900 innings with his defense in center field the last two seasons. On a per-inning basis, that’s comparable to Rays Gold Glove winning-center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and ranks among the top-third of center fielders.

    Here are a couple of examples of Springer making tough plays. He’s rated above-average at getting outs both on balls hit to the shallowest and deepest part of the ballpark.

    The Bill James Handbook 2021 projects Springer for 33 home runs and an .863 OPS in 144 games this coming season. That should mesh well with Gurriel (projected for 23 home runs and a .787 OPS) and Hernández (27 and .764).

    There is a high ceiling for the Blue Jays infield, particularly second baseman Cavan Biggio, shortstop Bo Bichette, and third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Handbook projects Biggio for an .810 OPS and 26 home runs despite a batting average of only .238 (Biggio is projected for 116 walks) and forecasts a 22-home run, 22-stolen base season from Bichette (.791 OPS).

    Guerrero has not yet lived up to the lofty expectations that preceded him. The projection system forecasts him for his best season yet, an .836 OPS with 26 home runs in 157 games.

    The Blue Jays’ pitching staff is much more of a question mark than the offense. At the moment, their projected fivesome of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Nate Pearson and Ross Stripling includes three pitchers (Ray, Roark, and Stripling) who pitched to a 6.42 ERA in a combined 148 2/3 innings pitched in 2020.

    The closer role is uncertain for now, though Toronto did just sign former Padres closer Kirby Yates. The team’s hope is that he’ll return to the form he showed when he pitched to a 1.19 ERA with 41 saves in 2019. Yates had a 12.46 ERA in six games last season, most of which he missed with an elbow injury. The backup option is Rafael Dolis, who pitched very well (1.50 ERA) in 24 innings in 2020, his first season pitching in the majors since 2013. The Handbook‘s projections like Yates for a bounceback and a 3.00 ERA in 2021.

    The bottom line is that the Blue Jays can hit with just about anyone in baseball. Their new additions provide assurances to that. We’ll see in the next few weeks what countermoves AL teams will make, as there’s still plenty of free agent talent to be had.

    You can purchase The Bill James Handbook here.

  • Players who made notable improvements to their defense in 2020

    By MARK SIMON

    Sixty games of a baseball season doesn’t give you a complete picture, but it does allow for preliminary reads on certain topics.

    When it comes to evaluating defense, we can try to make judgements but we need to put up a caution that 60 games is not 162 and thus we must tread carefully.

    But we can still investigate questions such as:

    Who were the most improved defensive players from 2019 to 2020?  

    If nothing else, it tips us off to some players whose defense we need to watch closely in 2021.

    To try to figure that out, I compared numbers from the two seasons – the Defensive Runs Saved per 1,000 innings for players who played at least 500 innings in the field in 2019 and 250 innings in 2020.

    The results come out a bit weird. Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart tops the list, going from 5 Runs Saved per 1,000 in 2019 innings to 32 per 1,000 and an NL Gold Glove in 2020. Nolan Arenado was also among the leaders.

    That doesn’t quite fit the spirit of what we’re looking for.  So I’m going to cherry pick and look specifically for players who turned negative defensive numbers into positive ones, and select the most interesting names from the list.

    J.P. Crawford, Mariners SS

    “I made all the routine plays. Making the cool plays is awesome. The ones that tear me down are routine errors. Everyone remembers you for cool plays … but this year I finally made the routine plays and it paid off.”

    That was J.P. Crawford on the conference call after winning the AL Gold Glove at shortstop for 2020. Crawford went from -5 Runs Saved at shortstop in 2019 to 7 Runs Saved in 2020.

    And Crawford wasn’t kidding about the routine plays. In 2019, he averaged a Defensive Misplay & Error every 27 innings. In 2020, he averaged one every 57 innings.

    J.P. Crawford – 2020 Season

    SeasonGood Fielding PlaysDefensive Misplays & Errors
    20191630
    2020118

    Add Crawford to the list of infielders made better by famed infield coach Perry Hill. Educated guess that he had Crawford improve on going to his right, because that’s where the statistical difference showed up most. His ability to get outs on balls hit in the shortstop-third base hole like this nifty play (with a little help from fellow Gold Glover Evan White) made a notable numerical impact.

    Omar Narváez

    If we’re going to give props to coaches, giving them to Charlie Greene and Walker McKinven with the Brewers for the work they did with Omar Narváez (as detailed at MLB.com).

    These are Narváez Runs Saved totals encompassing pitch framing, pitch blocking, and other Good Fielding Plays a catcher can make.

    SeasonDRS (Framing, Blocking, GFPs)
    2017-6
    2018-11*
    2019-13*
    20203

    * -24 combined in 2018 and 2019 ranked last among MLB catchers

    Narváez’s issue with framing in 2019 was that he caught pitches with momentum that took them out of the strike zone, like this one.

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ac6d804a-29c1-43dd-a701-459e322e2505

    Or this one

    But in 2020 Narváez got better results on pitches like this one, an example of how its best to catch a pitch on the way up than on the way down.

    Narváez went from getting called called strikes on pitches within an inch of a strike zone edge 37% of the time in 2019 to 48% in 2020.

    As for pitch blocking, there was improvement there within a small sample too.

     Pitch BlocksOpportunitiesBlock Rate
    201938543688%
    202010911694%

    César Hernández, Indians 2B

    We covered this one near the end of the regular season detailing how Hernandez went from defensive liability with the Phillies to ground ball gobbler for the Indians.

    Hernandez had a propensity to have ground balls bounce off his body and ricochet out of reach, leading to errors and Defensive Misplays, of which he totaled 40 in 2019. In just about a full season in 2020, he had only eight Misplays & Errors, and kept the ball in front of him with much greater frequency. In turn, he went from costing his team three runs to saving them six.

    José Abreu, White Sox 1B

    We also touched on this one as Abreu’s MVP candidacy developed.

    Plays like that resulted in Abreu making a big statistical jump in handling balls hit to his right and an overall improvement from costing his team 8 runs in 2019 to saving them 4 in 2020.

    Others to know

    There were multiple shortstops to pick from. Tim Anderson has shown a tendency to make a lot of mistakes at shortstop for the White Sox, but he’s also shown that he can overcome them. His Runs Saved total has bounced around from 3 (2016) to -22 (2017) to 6 (2018) to -12 (2019) to 3 (2020). Like Crawford, the improvement in 2020 came on balls hit to his right. He’ll show a truer improvement in the field if he can string together another good season.

    We can also mark Fernando Tatis Jr. specifically for cutting some of the reckless throws he made in 2019 -3 Runs Saved) out of his game in 2020 (1 Run Saved). Tatis has shown a propensity for making the dazzling play. He’s still young and refining his game and it’s logical to think other improvements will come.

    At third base, Rio Ruiz of the Orioles bettered himself from 2019 to 2020, going from costing the Orioles 5 runs to saving them 2 in about half the playing time. Honorable mention at catcher to his Orioles teammate Pedro Severino, who had similar improvements in blocking and framing as Narvaez in boosting his Defensive Runs Saved total from -13 to -1 in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

    Lastly, in the outfield, once we got past position switches (Jurickson Profar) and outfielders with good numbers but inconsistent bad-good histories (Michael Conforto, Eddie Rosario) Ramón Laureano’s improvement stood out. The improvements he made at catching deep fly balls in center field paid off (as we just wrote about). He went from costing the Athletics 3 runs in the outfield to saving them 5. Honorable mention to Clint Frazier, though he didn’t meet the 2019 innings requirement. Frazier went from -8 Runs Saved in 2019 to 2 in 2020 and looked much more comfortable than he did previously.

  • Ramón Laureano’s big game showed his big improvement

    By MARK SIMON

    Who played the best defensive game in MLB in 2020?

    We have a few different systems by which I can evaluate that. I prefer using our Good Plays/Misplays stats to address this. I’ve done this before (Lonnie Chisenhall, anyone?) and felt good about the results, so I’ll put it to use again.

    For those unfamiliar, we track every pitch and play of every game, and categorize different types of plays as Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors.

    A Good Fielding Play can be for a hit-robbing catch or a nice stop on a ground ball, a throw that recorded an assist, or something like keeping the ball on the infield or cutting the ball off in the gap to prevent a runner from taking an extra base. We have about 30 categories of Good Fielding Plays and our Video Scouts are trained in the appropriate times to dole them out.

    For reference, the leader in Good Fielding Plays this season were Mariners first baseman Evan White with 20 and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story with 19.

    Six players had three Good Fielding Plays in a game this season: Freddie Freeman, Gio Urshela, Kevin Kiermaier, Christian Walker, Jeimer Candelario, and Ramón Laureano. I disqualified Urshela and Kiermaier because they had a Defensive Misplay in the same game.

    In watching video of the other four, it came down to Walker’s two nice plays on ground balls and a nifty catch on a foul pop up versus Laureano making three standout catches. And I’ve picked Laureano’s game on August 12 in an 8-4 win against the Angels as the Best Defensive Game of the 2020 Season.

    Here are the three plays that Laureano made that day for the Athletics. Of note, they came in three consecutive innings.

    A backhanded sliding catch against Jo Adell in the fifth inning.

    A mini-leap with a head banging against the fence against Tommy La Stella in the sixth inning.

    And for good measure, a home run robbery against Brian Goodwin in the seventh inning.

    Those last two speak to the improvement Laureano made in his defensive game in 2020. In 2019, Laureano had all sorts of trouble on deep fly balls. But he took care of that issue this past season.

    We divide the outfield into three sections: shallow, medium and deep and from that we can calculate how many outs a player made above or below his expected outs total as calculated by our our Range & Positioning system for outfielders. For example, if Laureano catches a deep fly ball with a 30% out probability (based on where it was hit and how hard it was hit), he receives a credit of .7 plays made (to account for him doing something 70% of outfielders couldn’t do). If he misses the ball, he gets debited .3 (to account for being in the 30% of outfielders who didn’t catch it)

    The sum of credits and debits is expressed as a plus-minus number, with positive being above average and negative being below.

    Ramón Laureano on Deep Balls

    SeasonPlays MadeOpportunities+/-
    201975111-13
    20205769+1
    * Opportunities are defined as balls hit in which a player has a greater than 0 chance to make a play.

    If you’re reading the chart, it’s indicating that Laureano made 75 plays on deep balls but his -13 plus-minus indicates that he should have made 88. In 2020, Laureano made 57, but was a +1, meaning he was expected to make 56.

    Laureano’s improvement on deep balls was the catalyst in his going from costing his team 7 runs with his center field defense in 2019 to saving them five runs in 2020. It made him a legit contender for a Fielding Bible Award and it raised expectations for him heading into 2021.

    The punchline to this game is that there was doubt as to whether Laureano would play that day as the appeal for his six-game suspension for an altercation with the Astros was expected to be resolved that day. When it was not, Laureano was put in the Athletics lineup.

    The best defensive game coming in a game in which the player wasn’t even expected to play. That has a 2020 kind of feel to it, doesn’t it?

  • In Memoriam: The Hall of Famers we lost in 2020

    This was a sad year for baseball in many ways, one of which was the death of seven Hall of Famers We honor them here in this excerpt from The 2021 Bill James Handbook. 

    In Memoriam – Tom Seaver 

    Mark Simon 

    Tom Seaver’s arrival turned the Mets from lovable laughingstocks into eventual World Series champions in 1969, earning him the nicknames “Tom Terrific” and “The Franchise.” 

    Seaver was a 12-time All-Star who won 311 games and three Cy Young Awards. His nine straight seasons of 200 or more strikeouts and 10 consecutive strikeouts within one game are both MLB records. It’s important to note that Seaver pitched in an era in which strikeouts were harder to come by then they are now. He led the NL in strikeouts per 9 innings six times in seven seasons, but only once struck out more than a batter per inning in that stretch.  

    Seaver received 98.8% of the vote from the BBWAA for election to the Hall of Fame in 1992. That was the highest mark of any player up to that point. It was well-deserved. Just about any sabermetric stats rate Seaver as one of the best pitchers of the Live-Ball Era, including Pitching Win Shares, in which he ranks fifth. 

    Seaver died on August 31 at age 75. 

    In Memoriam – Lou Brock 

    John Dewan 

    This is one of my favorite baseball memories of all time. It’s not about 938 stolen bases or about one of the best or worst trades in baseball history (depending on your perspective). It’s a small glimpse of the type of man that Lou Brock was. 

    This is a very short story about the 60-year-old Lou Brock and my 8-year-old son Jason. My wife, Sue, and I were invited to attend the Players Choice Awards in 1999. We traveled from Chicago to Las Vegas to attend the event and our kids came along. 

    It was a black-tie affair that was aired on ESPN. I rented a tuxedo and Sue looked terrific in a beautiful evening gown. The hotel had a very nice childcare center on the first floor that could take care of Jason and our 6-year-old daughter Erica during the event. 

    Our room was on an upper floor and the four of us were waiting for the elevator on our way to dropping off the kids and then going straight to the event. And here comes a very distinguished older man to the elevator. I immediately knew it was Lou Brock. I turned to Jason and said, 

    “Jason, this is Lou Brock. He is one of the greatest base-stealers of all time!” 

    Jason looks at Lou and asks, “How many home runs did you hit?” 

    Lou smiles widely and says, “Oh, I hit a few.” 

    In a loud voice Jason says, “Not as many as Babe Ruth!” 

    We all broke out laughing, especially Lou. During the entire elevator ride Lou engaged our son, smiling and laughing. It was an absolutely joyful experience. 

    And then I noticed the tie that Lou was wearing. It was covered with the handprints of children. That tie and his interaction with my son showed just how much Lou loved children. 

    It brings tears to my eyes just thinking about this short three-minute interaction between Lou Brock and Jason Dewan. 

    Brock died on September 6 at age 81. 

    In Memoriam – Al Kaline 

    Mark Simon 

    Lifelong Tigers outfielder Al Kaline was known as “Mr. Tiger” for a 22-year career in which he recorded 3,007 hits, 399 home runs, 18 All-Star Game selections and 10 Gold Gloves. 

    Kaline won a batting title in his second full season, as he hit .340 with 27 home runs at age 20 in 1955. Thus began an impressive run.  

    Kaline’s stats didn’t necessarily dazzle. He never hit more than 30 home runs in a season, but he was consistent and he had a very good batting eye, as he walked 257 more times than he struck out for his career. In the decade of the 1960s, his slashline was .296/.381/.494. His OPS for that decade, adjusted for ballpark, was 41% better than league average. He ranks in the top-35 all-time in Runs Created. Kaline was also highly capable in the field, highly regarded for his glove and arm. 

    Kaline was a huge part of the 1968 World Series championship team. He hit .379 with 11 hits and eight RBIs in a seven-game win over the Cardinals. His go-ahead single in the seventh inning of Game 5 set in motion the Tigers comeback from a 3-games-to-1 deficit.  

    Kaline died on April 6 at age 85. 

    In Memoriam – Bob Gibson 

    Mark Simon 

    Bob Gibson produced a greater level of collective fear among major league hitters than just about any pitcher during a career that spanned from 1959 to 1975. This came from Gibson’s willingness to pitch inside and knock down any hitter at any time. That was a big part of what made Gibson a great pitcher for the only team he played for, the Cardinals. 

    Gibson’s signature season is one of the most memorable pitching seasons of all time. He went 22-9 with a 1.12 ERA in 304 2/3 innings pitched in 1968. That is the lowest ERA for any pitcher in the Live Ball Era (since 1920). It’s one of five seasons in which he won 20 games and nine seasons in which he had at least 200 strikeouts. It concluded with him winning the NL MVP and the first of his two Cy Young Awards. 

    Gibson wasn’t a World Series winner that year, as the Cardinals lost in seven games to the Tigers. But he won titles with St. Louis in both 1964 and 1967, winning Game 7 in both of those and was named the MVP of each series. Gibson completed eight of his nine World Series starts, went eight innings in the other, and posted a 1.89 World Series ERA. His 17 strikeouts in Game 1 of the 1968 World Series are an MLB record. 

    Gibson was a first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee in 1981. Four decades later he is still the standard setter for pitchers when it comes to intimidation factor and big-game performance. 

    Bob Gibson died on October 2 at age 84. 

    In Memoriam – Whitey Ford 

    Mark Simon 

    Whitey Ford’s many pitching accomplishments have stood the test of time more than 50 years after he retired. 

    In a 16-year career with the Yankees spanning 1950 to 1967, Ford went 236–106. The .690 winning percentage ranks second among retired pitchers whose career began in the modern era (since 1900).  

    Ford’s combination of longevity and effectiveness in the postseason hold up against the best big-game pitchers in MLB history. His 10 World Series wins and 33-inning World Series scoreless streak are both all-time marks. He won one Cy Young Award and was named AL Pitcher of the Year by The Sporting News in two other seasons. He was inducted into the Baseball of Fame in 1974. 

    On the more serious side, he took two years off near the beginning of his career to serve in the military during the Korean War. He played baseball and basketball in the army, allowing him to stay in good pitching form. 

    When he returned to the game, he established himself as one of baseball’s top left-handed pitchers. The New York Times once wrote “Possessed of an instinctive sense of gamesmanship, evidenced from his first appearance in Yankees pinstripes, Whitey is a cool and calculating operation…He revels in such challenges [of being the ace or the losing-streak stopper] because to his way of thinking, they are what make pitching fun.” 

    Ford’s fun came in the form of six World Series titles and 11 AL pennants, and a lifelong friendship with baseball legend and teammate, Mickey Mantle.  

    In describing Ford, Mantle used the phrase “Nerves of steel.” That’s the kind of approach needed to become an all-time baseball great. 

    Whitey Ford died on October 8 at age 91. 

    In Memoriam – Joe Morgan 

    Mark Simon 

    Five-foot-seven, 160-pound Joe Morgan was the little guy who could do just about everything on a baseball field. He was one of the leaders of the Big Red Machine, the Reds team that won World Series titles in 1975 and 1976 and played the game in a dynamic, exciting way that would have been a good fit in any era. He did it at a position, second base, that was not known for the offensive production of other spots. 

    Morgan finished his career with 2,517 hits, 689 stolen bases, and 268 home runs. He had an incredible batting eye, drawing 1,865 walks, which ranks fifth all-time. That helped him record an on-base percentage over .400 in six straight seasons from 1972 to 1977 (he led the NL four times in that span). He was also a standout fielder, winning five Gold Glove Awards.  

    Morgan was the MVP of both of those Reds championship teams and was a 10-time All-Star. He was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1990. After his playing career ended, Morgan joined Jon Miller as the inaugural voices of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. They worked together as a broadcast team from 1990 to 2010. He also worked as the lead analyst for NBC.

    It’s reasonable to argue that he is one of the greatest second basemen in MLB history. In fact, The Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract ranked him No. 1 at the position when it was published in 2001. 

    Morgan died in October 2020 at age 77. 

    In Memoriam – Phil Niekro 

    Mark Simon 

    Phil Niekro’s presence in the game will be everlasting, as he both excelled with the knuckleball and passed on his wisdom to future MLB pitchers.

    Niekro had the wisdom of 5,404 innings over 24 seasons from 1964 to 1987. He ranks fourth all-time in innings pitched and first among those whose careers began in the last 100 years. Niekro won 318 games, all but 50 of those with the Braves. He has to his credit five All-Star appearances, five Gold Glove Awards, and a no-hitter. Niekro ranks sixth among pitchers in Win Shares over the last 100 years, one spot behind Tom Seaver (the top four are Roger Clemens, Warren Spahn, Greg Maddux, and Lefty Grove) He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1997. Niekro and his brother Joe have the most wins by a brother combo in MLB history (539).

    Niekro pitched at a time in which it was more typical for a starting pitcher to go deep into a game or pitch on short rest, but Niekro took it to another level. He pitched at least 300 innings four times and at least 250 innings 11 times. His 300th win came in 1985 and was a complete game that capped a 220-inning season … at age 46. Niekro won that game for the Yankees against the Blue Jays on the season’s final day and famously acknowledged that he didn’t throw a knuckleball until the last batter of the game.

    Niekro also has a legacy of giving. He won both the Lou Gehrig Award (given to the player who exemplifies Gehrig’s spirit) and the Roberto Clemente Award (given for on-field excellence and off-field humanitarian work). Additionally, Niekro served as a mentor to future knuckleball pitchers like Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey.

    Niekro died on December 26 at age 81.

    In Memoriam 

    Other notable baseball people who passed away in 2020 include longtime star Dick Allen, who hit 351 home runs in a 15-year career spent primarily with the Phillies and won the MVP with the White Sox in 1972; Don Larsen, who pitched the only perfect game in World Series history for the Yankees against the Dodgers in 1956; shortstop Tony Fernandez, who totaled 2,276 hits in a 17-year career that began in 1983; Jimmy Wynn, who was known as “The Toy Cannon” and overcame both small stature and a tough home ballpark in the Astrodome to slug 291 home runs; Bob Watson, who played 19 years in the major leagues, then became the first African-American general manager to win a World Series, which he did with the Yankees; Jay Johnstone, who played 20 seasons with eight teams and was known as one of the game’s great pranksters; Ron Perranoski, a top closer with the Dodgers and Twins, who led the majors in saves in 1969, the first year the save rule was official; Ed Farmer, who pitched 11 seasons in the majors and then spent 29 years as a broadcaster with the White Sox; super-scout Gary Hughes, who won five World Series titles in his more than 50 years in pro baseball; Houston Chronicle baseball writer Harry Shattuck, who covered more than 3,000 MLB games; and longtime MLB executive Jimmie Lee Solomon, who was most recently the league’s executive vice president for baseball development. 

  • Let’s Hand Out Some Year-end KBO Awards

    By TED BAARDA

    With the calendar approaching January, we can look back at a year unlike any other and find one baseball development that may have been forgotten: How foreign leagues became the center of attention while MLB was shut down until mid-summer. 

    North American fans were able to learn more about leagues in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, but the KBO managed to take center stage, with games broadcast every day throughout the season in the US. Let’s look back at the KBO season and find some players worthy of some stat-based awards.

    The Hard-Hitter Award – Mel Rojas Jr. – KT Wiz

    Mel Rojas Jr. had a breakout season in the KBO, winning league MVP honors and nearly capturing a Triple Crown. He narrowly missed out on the batting title while comfortably leading the league in home runs and RBI. In addition to this, he finished only nine hits short of the single-season KBO hits record of 201. Rojas Jr. was also at the top of our hard hit leaderboards all season, and ended up leading the league with a 30.5% hard hit rate, 1.5% ahead of the next closest hitter, Roberto Ramos of the LG Twins (minimum 200 AB). 

    Rojas Jr. also limited his soft contact, finishing with the second-lowest soft hit rate of 9.1%, behind only former Minnesota Twin, and current Kiwoom Heroes first baseman Byung-ho Park at 8.5%. Rojas Jr. had a great year, and earned a two-year contract in Japan as a reward for his efforts.

    The Contact Minimizer Award – Aaron Brooks – Kia Tigers

    Aaron Brooks bounced around the Majors for a few years before signing in Korea last year, and his first year with Kia was very successful. Brooks went 11-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 151 1/3 innings. A big key to his success was his ability to limit hard contact. He had the lowest hard-hit rate allowed by pitchers who had 300 at-bats against, at 11.6%. Brooks allowed a paltry .292 SLG against. He and Dan Straily were only behind Chang-mo Koo’s .278 (also with a minimum of 300 AB against).

    If we drop our threshold to 100 at-bats against, the lowest hard-hit rate belongs to Samsung Lions reliever Ji-gwang Choi at 9.4%. Choi only allowed 2 HR in 44 1/3 innings, but his 31 walks helped to inflate his ERA to 4.87 on the season.

    The “Crime Fighter” Award – Seung-ho Lee (Kiwoom) and Jae-won Lee (SK)

    The Crime Fighter Award goes to the pitcher and catcher who recorded the highest total of Stolen Base Runs Saved, which measures how well they perform at limiting stolen bases, as well as recording pickoffs and caught stealings. The 21-year-old left-handed Seung-ho Lee led all pitchers with 6 Stolen Base Runs Saved, narrowly beating out Hyun-Jong Yang of the Kia Tigers who had 5.

    Jae-won Lee of the SK Wyverns led all catchers with 4 Stolen Base Runs Saved, which narrowly beat Bo-geun Jung of the Lotte Giants who had 3. His proficiency at slowing the running game is important as the Wyverns employ starter Jong-hoon Park, whose -5 Stolen Base Runs Saved in 2020 was the lowest total in the league largely due to a slow delivery to the plate.

    The “Picking It” Team Award – Kiwoom Heroes

    At Sports Info Solutions we are known for our defensive stat, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). If we adjust our basis to KBO average, the Kiwoom Heroes led the way with 57 Runs Saved, 32 runs better than the KT Wiz.

    The Heroes’ strength on defense was their infield, leading the KBO in turning grounders into outs at 72.5%, one percentage point above second-place Lotte, and two percentage points above league average. The Heroes were led defensively by Fielding Bible Award winner Hye-sung Kim, who won the award at second base, leading all 2B with 5 DRS despite only playing 441 innings at the position. Kim also won a Fielding Bible Award for his multi-positional versatility, also tallying a respectable -5 DRS in 322 innings at shortstop, and +3 in 292 innings in left field. Pitcher Eric Jokisch also won a Fielding Bible Award, leading all pitchers with +4 DRS

    The defensive challenge for the Heroes next year will be how to replace infielders Ha-seong Kim and Addison Russell, and improve on their outfield defense which finished 7th in the league at turning outfield fly balls into outs (55.8%). Ha-seong Kim had the best DRS per inning rate in the league while also mixing in strong defense at third. Russell struggled defensively at shortstop, but was able to put up 4 DRS in limited time at second base.

    The “Track It Down” Team Award – Samsung Lions

    The “Track It Down” Award is going to the outfield group that did the best job at converting fly balls into outs, which was the Samsung Lions. The Lions turned 59.7% of air balls to the outfield into outs, 1.1% better than the second place NC Dinos, and over three percentage points above the league average of 56.6%. If we look at all air balls, and not just those hit to the outfield, the Lions still come out on top turning 67.8% into outs, again well above the league average of 65%.

    The Lions outfield was led by Fielding Bible Award winner Hae-min Park in center field, who was second in DRS by center fielders with at least 1,000 innings at (behind only Jeong-dae Bae of the KT Wiz). The Lions also had help in the corners with Seung-gyu Park turning in an impressive 3 DRS in only 271 innings in right field, and Ja-wook Koo putting up respectable numbers in 445 innings in left field.

  • New baseball podcast episode: Byron Buxton + KBO & NPB Fielding Bible Awards

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Minnesota Twins centerfielder Byron Buxton (@OfficialBuck103) to talk about everything from his defensive approach, how he changed his swing by watching video, his speed, his smile, and much more (0:45).

    Mark also welcomes a group of guests to break down the Fielding Bible award winners from both the KBO and NPB. Jeeho Yoo (@Jeeho_1) of the Yonhap News and Ted Baarda of SIS join first to discuss the winners from the KBO (24:19), and John Gibson (@JBWPodcast) of JapaneseBaseball.com and the Japan Baseball Weekly Podcast finishes the show with a look at the winners from the NPB (48:24).

    You can read more about the Fielding Bible award winners at actasports.com/statoftheweek. Don’t forget to rate and review, happy holidays, and stay safe.

  • Kiké Hernández is a defensive gem

    Kiké Hernández is a defensive gem

    By MARK SIMON

    Free (up) Kiké Hernández.

    What exactly are we saying here? This isn’t a plea to get Hernández on a team that will give him more playing time. He played in 80% of the Dodgers’ games the last two seasons. This is a suggestion to whomever signs this free agent to play him at second base and just let him be.

    It’s understood that part of Hernández’s value is in his utility (heck, he won a Fielding Bible Award in 2020 for multi-position play) and that he’s not a great hitter against right-handed pitching (.235 BA, 25 HR in 553 at-bats the last three seasons). But let’s counter that with the fact that the last two seasons he’s played like an all-world second baseman in the field. Yes, we’d still take Andrelton Simmons as the best defensive player in this free agent class but Hernández has a pretty good highlight reel too.

    Hernández has saved 21 runs with his defense in that time in just over 800 innings. By comparison, three-time Fielding Bible Award winner Kolten Wong has three more runs saved than Hernández does, but in nearly twice as many innings. We’ll add that Hernández is one of two infielders to amass at least 10 Range Runs Saved in fewer than 1,000 innings at a position in that span. The other is Rangers third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who incidentally will be a full-time shortstop in 2021).

    It’s hard to fully capture Hernández’s range value visually, but here’s a look at everywhere in which he made a play the last two seasons.

    When you watched Hernández play second base in 2020, the thing that stood out the most was his hustle. He was aggressive in going after balls. According to charting by SIS Video Scouts, Hernández sprinted for 26 balls as a second baseman last season and successfully made the play on 22 of those attempts. His 85% success rate was easily the highest among the 20 second basemen with the most attempts last season.

    Highest Success Rate on Sprints – 2020 Season

    NamePlays Made/Opportunities%
    Kiké Hernández22/2685%
    Kolten Wong32/4473%
    Keston Hiura18/2669%
    Danny Mendick15/2268%

    This is partly a product of how the Dodgers used their second basemen. The Dodgers weren’t shy about placing them deep on the outfield grass when in a shift. That gives them more time to field a hard-hit ball and allowed Hernández to sprint when others wouldn’t have time to do so. The three players who played the deepest second base last season per Statcast were Dodgers, with Hernández placing second between Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux.

    “To be a good infielder, you definitely have to have good hands,” Hernández said on the SIS Baseball Podcast earlier this year. “But on the defensive side, you do everything with your legs … Whether you catch ground balls or don’t catch ground balls, that’s based on your footwork. For me, moving my feet constantly. I just want to get to every balls. The quicker I get to the ball in the infield, the more time I have to set my feet and make a good, strong throw.

    Here’s an example of what we’re talking about with his sprints. Dodgers broadcaster Joe Davis has gotten used to this kind of play. He makes it sound almost routine, even though that’s not a way by which most second basemen make plays.

    Hernández was able to make the play on that and similar balls. He can also come in on the ball. As Angels broadcaster Mark Gubicza points out, his glove-to-hand transfer is excellent and allows him to make plays like this.

    “A lot of practice and a lot of preparation,” Hernández said of the build up of that skill. “Something I take a lot of pride in is practicing with intent. Every throw I make in practice, I’m making it with intent.”

    And just to complete the package, Hernández can make the unusual play without issue. In this one from last season, he’s playing in a defensive shift on the shortstop side of second base. The ball is hit to the right of second base, which under normal circumstances means that the runner on second can go to third base without issue. Not so fast.

    In short, Hernández can do just about everything you would want a second baseman to do. Yes, you can have DJ LeMahieu and Kolten Wong and you’ll do extremely well. But Hernandez should be a good first choice at second base for someone.

  • Need a reliever? A couple from the NPB might work

    By TED BAARDA

    Last season, a few NPB relievers signed small MLB deals and ended up making an impact in the bullpens of playoff teams. Pierce Johnson (Padres) and Rafael Dolis (Blue Jays) both provided value to their teams on cheap contracts during last year’s shortened season. Each year it seems like a reliever or two comes from, or comes back from, overseas to make an impact. This year there are two potential relief options for teams to consider from Japan. Both are free agents, and thus are not bound by the rules of the posting system.

    One good option came off the market when Robert Suarez decided to stay in the NPB for 2021. We’ll give a report on him at the end of this piece.

    Hirokazu Sawamura – RHP – Chiba Lotte Marines

    Hirokazu Sawamura had a rough start to the 2020 season for the Yomiuri Giants but after being traded to Chiba Lotte on September 8, he was able to find his strikeout stuff again and gave them 21 innings of 1.71 ERA ball down the stretch. A starter earlier in his career for the Giants, Sawamura had been essentially a one-inning bullpen arm since 2015.

    Season Games IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
    2018 49 52.1 4.64 1.567 9.3 4.6
    2019 43 48.1 2.61 1.179 10.2 3.2
    2020 35 34.1 3.41 1.223 10.5 4.7

    Sawamura pitches exclusively from the stretch and releases his pitches from a high ¾ arm slot. He also incorporates a slide step with runners on base to help control the running game. Sawamura throws everything hard, with all of his pitches being thrown 90 MPH or above. 

    Sawamura throws a straight, mid 90s fastball that sits around 96 that he can locate well at the bottom of the zone. His primary secondary pitch is a low-mid 90s splitter, which has some late drop but doesn’t have a huge break due to the speed he throws it at. He does a good job of keeping the pitch down, either in or below the zone, and hitters regularly swing over it when it dips out of the zone. Splitters are difficult pitches to command, which is a factor contributing to Sawamura’s high walk rates. 

    His third pitch is a low 90s cutter with a short, late break that he tries to locate inside to lefties, or mix into righties when in a long at-bat. It is clearly his third pitch, as his control of the pitch is hit or miss and he can get under it and throw it above the zone at times.

    Sawamura’s inconsistency could make teams hesitant to offer him a deal, but his stuff is comparable to fellow free agent Hansel Robles, who also relies on throwing a lot of hard splitters (admittedly Robles is a rough comp given his 2020 struggles). Like Robles, Sawamura likely could fit into a MLB bullpen in a middle relief role and attempt to work his way into higher-leverage situations if his performance merits it.

    Spencer Patton – RHP – Yokohama DeNA Baystars

    Spencer Patton has had a winding career, drafted in the 24th round of the 2011 Draft by the Kansas City Royals, pitching in parts of three MLB seasons with the Rangers and Cubs from 2014-2016, and finally ending up in Yokohama for the last four years. 

    While the results have not been there for Patton the last couple of years, his first two years in Yokohama were very promising, and he still features high strikeout rates.

    Season Games IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
    2017 62 60 2.70 1.150 9.9 2.9
    2018 58 56 2.57 1.232 10.8 2.6
    2019 42 36.2 5.15 1.636 11 5.4
    2020 57 53 4.92 1.491 11 4.6

    Patton primarily comes after hitters with his fastball/slider combo from a ¾ arm slot. He pitches out of the windup with no runners on, not a common occurrence for a reliever, and features a high leg kick to power his delivery from the windup or stretch. He likes to work up with his four-seamer which will sit around 93-94 MPH, though if he misses he tends to miss up out of the zone altogether. 

    Patton’s slider sits in the high 80s and typically features some late drop to it. Patton locates the slider well to the outside corner to righties, and tries to run it in off the plate to lefties. He also features an occasional changeup that he will primarily throw away to lefties.

    Patton will likely have to prove himself on a minor-league contract with a small salary if he returns to North America, given how his last two seasons have gone in Japan. It is hard to find a comp for Patton, as two-pitch relievers without elite velocity don’t have a long shelf-life in the Majors. To have sustained MLB success he may need to move towards using the slider as his primary pitch or develop another weapon. As he is now, he profiles as similar to Blake Taylor of the Astros (2.18 ERA in 20 2/3 IP but a 4.55 FIP in 2020).

    Robert Suarez – RHP – Hanshin Tigers

    Robert Suarez is likely the least known pitcher of the three in this article, but he is also likely the best and as such, he re-signed with the Hanshin Tigers. Suarez put together a great 2015 in the Mexican League and turned that into an opportunity with the SoftBank Hawks of the NPB.

    In 53 2/3 innings in 2016 Suarez pitched to a 3.19 ERA for the Hawks, with strong peripherals to back his performance. He earned a spot on Team Venezuela in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, but got injured there and needed Tommy John Surgery. He put up unimpressive numbers the next two years with SoftBank before the team let him go.

    Suarez signed with the Hanshin Tigers for the 2020 season, and with Hanshin losing both Pierce Johnson and Rafael Dolis to MLB teams there was a clear opportunity in their bullpen. When closer Kyuji Fujikawa struggled at the beginning of the season, and Suarez regained his control, the team handed him the closer role and he ran with it, collecting 25 saves in a shortened NPB season.

    Season G IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9
    2018 11 10 6.30 2.000 9.0 4.5
    2019 9 26.2 5.74 1.800 9.1 6.8
    2020 51 52.1 2.24 1.051 8.6 3.3

    Suarez pitches exclusively from the stretch and attacks hitters with his high 90s fastball from a high ¾ arm angle. The fastball typically sits around 96 but he can run it up to triple digits on occasion. In addition to his great velocity, Suarez also gets some tailing action on his fastball, letting it run in on right handers and producing ground balls. He also features a splitter with some traditional tumbling action that he throws in the upper 80s, along with the occasional slider that will be slightly harder than the splitter with some sweeping action.

    Suarez’s control was inconsistent early in the season, though he was still able to close out games. In the second half of the year his control took a big step forward, suggesting that he has returned to form following his injury. Throwing hard, inducing grounders, and limiting walks are three big keys for a successful bullpen arm. He profiles as similar to Jeurys Familia, and (like Familia) his ability to limit walks could determine how much success he has.