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  • Freddie Freeman Picking Up His Teammates

    The Atlanta Braves have arguably the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball in Andrelton Simmons. The slick-fielding 23-year-old leads MLB in Defensive Runs Saved with 39 in 2013, more than double Pedro Florimon, who is second among shortstops with 18.

    However, Simmons is not the only 23-year-old in the Braves infield who is showing a knack defensively. First baseman Freddie Freeman, too, has quickly become one of the best young players at his position. Since his first full season in 2011, Freeman leads all first basemen with 230 Good Fielding Plays (GFPs).

    A cornerstone for a first baseman is his ability to handle a difficult throw from a fellow infielder. Whether you choose to call it a scoop or a pick, Freeman again is the leader. Out of his 230 GFP’s, 128 of them have been considered “handling a difficult throw,” which are throws that first hit the dirt or are wide of the bag. To put that in perspective, only five other active first baseman have more than 90 (Carlos Pena, Eric Hosmer, Paul Goldschmidt and Adrian Gonzalez).

    Over the same period, Freeman has made few negative plays. Net GFPs are accumulated by adding player errors to their defensive misplays (DM) and subtracting that number from the number of GFPs they have recorded. Freeman is second with 147 Net GFPs, behind only Goldschmidt’s 154.

    You can’t pick your teammates, but Freeman can sure pick the bad throws his teammates throw his way.
    ALL STATS AS OF August 29, 2013

  • The Best Position Player in Chicago

    It’s been a rough year for Chicago baseball fans. With disappointing seasons from the likes of Starlin Castro and Paul Konerko, plus the trades of Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, and Matt Garza, there have few bright spots on either side of town. In a few short weeks, Chicagoans will look back and realize that Welington Castillo might be the best player on either roster outside of All-Star victor Chris Sale.

    Welington Castillo was languishing in Iowa until August of 2012, waiting for the Geovany Soto trade to finally get his chance. He hasn’t been an offensive superstar by any means. His .265 batting average is valuable largely because he’s developed into a patient hitter with an above-average .343 on-base percentage.  While he hasn’t shown it in the majors, his minor league numbers suggest that the 26-year-old has some power in the tank. But his bat isn’t what makes him valuable to the Cubs.

    Castillo has excelled in every aspect of his defensive responsibilities this year. First of all, his ability to block pitches in the dirt is unmatched. In the eloquent words of Cubs’ skipper Dale Sveum, “There ain’t nobody better blocking the ball than he is.” The numbers back it up: Castillo has blocked 551 pitches in the dirt this year against just 28 wild pitches, a 95 percent block rate. By comparison, Indians’ catcher/first baseman Carlos Santana has allowed 42 wild pitches this year against only 255 catcher blocks (86 percent). To put it another way, Santana would have to block another 572 consecutive pitches in the dirt without allowing a single wild pitch to match Castillo’s block rate. While it’s not difficult to compare favorably to Santana defensively, BIS estimates that Castillo has saved the Cubs 10 runs on Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays (carried largely by his pitch blocking). Santana, on the other hand, has cost the Indians 7.

    Additionally, there’s his control of opposing baserunners. With Castillo on the field, runners have successfully stolen 53 bases, been caught by the pitcher 5 times, and been caught by Castillo himself 19 times. Omitting pitcher caught stealing, that’s a 26 percent caught stealing rate compared to the league average of 23 percent. On top of that, Castillo has picked off four additional runners, which is more than any other catcher except Chris Iannetta. Baseball Info Solutions estimates that his control of the running game has saved the Cubs another five runs compared to an average catcher.

    All in all, Defensive Runs Saved has Welington Castillo as 18 runs better than an average catcher this season, the best mark in MLB by a full eight runs. It remains to be seen if Castillo’s play will be recognized this offseason when the hardware is passed out. While Gold Glove voters have been notoriously slow to vote for newcomers, the Fielding Bible Awards panel may be quicker to give Castillo his due. As their rebuilding efforts continue, hopefully the Cubs’ management will similarly appreciate the value their backstop provides.

    -Ben Jedlovec, Vice President–Product Development & Sales, Baseball Info Solutions

  • Manny Machado Has Company

    One of the most exciting storylines of the 2013 season has been Manny Machado’s breakout.  Earlier this month, Machado turned 21 years old, and like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, he is already among the game’s elite.  Machado is a well-rounded player, but his best skill may be defensive.  With 23 Defensive Runs Saved, Machado leads all third basemen and trails only Carlos Gomez and Andrelton Simmons, both of whom have 26 Runs Saved, among all positions.

    For most of the season, Machado has had a healthy lead in Runs Saved over the rest of third basemen.  However, things have been getting tighter since Nolan Arenado made his big-league debut in late April.  Through yesterday’s games, Arenado is up to 20 Runs Saved, himself, and Arenado has played 711.1 innings this season compared to 938.1 innings for Machado.  That means that Arenado has actually racked up Runs Saved at a greater pace than even Machado.

    With a couple months left in the season, third base could prove to be a fascinating defensive race between a pair of young players, similar to the one between Jason Heyward and Josh Reddick in right field a year ago.

  • Alfonso Soriano Needs Power to Help Yankees

    Over the weekend, new Yankee Alfonso Soriano paid early dividends with a home run and a walk-off single against the Rays.  It was a big win for the Yankees who, even with the victory, remain 7.5 games back in the division and 7.0 games behind the second-place Rays.

    Brian Cashman was probably correct in his assessment that Soriano will help the team, if only by keeping Vernon Wells and his .283 OBP on the bench.  However, the 18 home runs and 10 stolen bases that made Soriano attractive to teams like the Yankees are counterbalanced by flaws that do now show up as readily in traditional counting statistics.

    Since 2009, Soriano has cost the Cubs an estimated 43 runs with his poor defense, the fifth-worst total by an outfielder in that time.  More subtle is his poor baserunning, a limitation belied by his stolen base totals.  Among players with at least 30 stolen bases since 2009, Soriano has the 10th-worst Net Gain–a comprehensive measurement of baserunning that includes success rate on moving first to third, second to home, and first to home on hits as well as stolen bases.

    Of course, a right-handed bat with 30-homer potential is still a valuable addition for the Yankees.  It’s probably not worth $19 million per season, however, which Soriano will make through the 2014 season.  The Cubs will pick up a lot of that salary, but if the Yankees are as desperate to stay below the Luxury Tax threshold as media reports indicates, one wonders if they could spend their money and prospects more efficiently.

  • Chase Utley Is Still an Elite Defender

    If you look only at the recent trend in Defensive Runs Saved totals for Chase Utley, then it looks like he has really declined in skill, defensively.  After a prime that saw him save an estimated 115 runs between 2005 and 2010, Utley has just 20 Runs Saved in the three seasons since.  However, that decline is more a decline in health than it is in production.

    From 2005 to 2010, Utley saved an estimated 15 runs at second base per 1,000 innings played.  Among players with at least 1,000 innings at the position, only Craig Counsell and Ben Zobrist had higher.  Meanwhile, from 2011 to 2013, Utley has saved 9 runs per 1,000 innings at second base, the eighth-highest total at the position.  Over a full season at his recent level of production, Utley would still be among the best second basemen in the game.

    Of course, just because Utley’s limitation is health rather than skill does not erase the risk a team would have in trading for him.  However, for a team like the Athletics that has chosen to sacrifice defense up the middle for the offensive production of Jed Lowrie, Utley would make a lot of sense.  The real question is whether the Phillies are willing to admit that they are out of the race this season and that Utley may not be the best candidate for a contract extension, despite everything he’s done for the Phillies in his career.

  • Scott Kazmir’s Rebirth

    In case you haven’t noticed, Scott Kazmir has returned to the major leagues.  Not only that, but he’s made 17 starts for a contending team, the Cleveland Indians. 

    Kazmir’s fastball velocity sits above 92 mph, at the same level as his 2006-07 peak with the then Devil Rays.  He’s mixing his fastball/slider/change much like before, though he’ll throw in a cutter and a curve from time to time.  He even had a 10 SO, 0 BB outing on May 9 against the A’s, who are not whiffing nearly as often this season as their record 2012 pace. 

    The results have been less impressive: a 4.30 ERA (4.36 FIP), 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings (down from 10+ at his peak).  He’s also had trouble avoiding hard contact, allowing 14 home runs in his 17 starts.  That being said, his control is as good as (or better than) ever, with 3.2 walks per nine innings this season.  Most importantly, aside from some minor back issues, he’s been healthy. 

    Kazmir is certainly someone to keep an eye on as the second half progresses.  If he settles in as a mediocre starter, fine.  In the short term, however, the upside is enticing.