This weekend, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) announced the three finalist groups for its Football Analytics Challenge.
Team 1 – Andrew Rogan and Robert Bernhardt
Team 2 – Zachary Feldman, Michael Egle, and Anthony Reinhard
Team 3 – Emmett Kiernan
The finalists, who were chosen from 34 total submissions, will compete in a live final event on Wednesday, July 29 at 8pm ET.
The live event will feature presentations by each of the finalist groups, given to a panel of judges consisting of Matt Manocherian (SIS), Aaron Schatz (Football Outsiders), and John Park (Indianapolis Colts).
A live feed of the event will be streamed on YouTube for public viewing, with the link distributed via SIS social media shortly before the scheduled 8:00pm ET start time (Twitter: @SportsInfo_SIS).
The Football Analytics Challenge is a public competition that tasked participants with analyzing SIS play-by-play charting data to answer questions about Defensive Line position value in the NFL. To read more about the event, the rules, and judging criteria, visit this link.
All proceeds generated by the event go to the United Negro College Fund (UNCF). To date, over 130 donors have helped raise over $3,300 dollars. Donations are still being accepted through July 31st, via GoFundMe.
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) dive into the 2020 Football Outsiders Almanac, which is now available for purchase. They open with a discussion about what’s different in this year’s book (2:26), potential updates that were considered for the “Pregame Show” section (5:11), and favorite quotes from “The Year in Quotes” (10:14).
They then examine interesting projections from the book, including why the Ravens are a bit lower than expected (11:03), why the Steelers are a bit higher than expected (12:49), the Patriots and Bills atop the AFC East (15:04), the very even NFC West (16:30), the Lions as the biggest surprise (19:29), and the Vikings and Browns as most likely to outperform their projections (25:51). The episode closes with the Random Page Game, which includes talk about the Colts having the easiest schedule (29:41), Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Teddy Bridgewater comparisons (30:50), and NCAA football projections (which are already off due to the schedule changes) (32:55).
A few weeks ago on this site, we published research showing the effects weather has on a quarterback’s expected completion percentage. Now we will be applying that same question to the running game to see if any weather effects exist.
For this analysis, weather effects on running backs will be analyzed with a few different statistics, including Yards Per Carry, Positive%, and Broken/Missed Tackles. Data used will be from the past two seasons and include only rushing attempts by the road team to help with sampling bias. This results in a data set that includes a little over 11,500 carries.
Dome vs Outdoor
As a first look into weather effects on rushing, lets see how performance is impacted by whether or not the game was played in a covered stadium.
Running Back Rushing Performance of Road Teams by Roof Type (2018-2019)
Roof Type
Yds / Carry
Avg Yds After Contact
Positive%
BT+MT / 100 Carries
Open
4.3
2.6
42%
15.7
Dome
4.1
2.4
42%
14.6
By looking at the numbers simply grouped by outdoor games versus games in a dome, it seems there could be a very slight positive benefit to playing outdoors. Running backs had an increase in three of the statistical categories when they were outside, though, Positive% was noticeably unchanged. This is the opposite effect that was seen previously in quarterback performance.
Weather Effects
Similar to the previous research into quarterback performance, we will also look into the role weather plays in rushing performance, if any. The weather variables used will once again be Temperature and Significant Precipitation (defined as any time the precipitation intensity was greater than or equal to 0.25 mm/hr).
As with passing performance being adjusted for other variables such as throw depth and throws outside the numbers, running back rushing performance needs to be adjusted for down, distance, and defenders in the box.
After attempting to model a relationship between the two weather variables and the first two rushing metrics of Yards and Yards After Contact, we found both variables not statistically significant.
However, when modeling a relationship between the two weather variables and Positive%, Temperature becomes statistically significant, albeit with only a marginal impact, even on the season level. Temperature was determined to have a negative relationship with Positive%, meaning that as the temperature increases, the Expected Positive Play Rate decreases.
One way to quantify which performances were most affected is comparing a running back’s Expected Positive% without accounting for weather conditions to a model that includes Temperature as a variable.. The 2019 game which was most positively impacted by the weather was the Bears vs Packers matchup in Week 15. After adjusting for weather, both starting running backs Aaron Jones and David Montgomery had close to a 2% boost in Expected Positive%.
Player
Week
Expected Pos%
Weather Adjusted Expected Pos%
Difference
Aaron Jones
15
37.9%
40.0%
2.1%
David Montgomery
15
42.2%
44.2%
2.0%
This shows that even though Temperature is a significant variable in the model, even in the most extreme case its impact is relatively small.
Grass vs Turf
Although the field surface type is not a weather variable, we did find it to be an interesting piece when attempting to model a predicted rate for running backs forcing a broken or missed tackle on each individual tackle attempt. The two weather variables were both insignificant in this analysis, but field surface type was found to be a significant variable. This differs from each of the previous models mentioned within this article, in which field surface type did not play a role.
Running backs attempting to force a broken or missed tackle have a higher success rate of doing so on grass fields rather than turf fields. This is somewhat shown in the first table, where outdoor stadiums had a higher Broken+Missed Tackles / 100 Attempts. But it doesn’t tell the whole story, as a stadium’s roof type is not the deciding factor. A stadium’s field surface type seems to be the actual factor providing the difference. Though, this research is currently limited by a binary classification of field surface type, when in reality there are multiple different types of turf and grass being used in the NFL.
Overall Findings
Temperature and Precipitation are NOT significant variables when trying to predict Rushing Yards, Rushing Yards After Contact, or Broken+Missed Tackle Rate.
Temperature IS statistically significant when predicting Rushing Positive%. This results in running the ball being slightly more efficient in cold weather. Though, the overall impact is relatively small, even in the most extreme cases.
The field’s surface type IS a factor in forcing broken and missed tackles, where it is easier to do so on grass than turf. Though, this too has a relatively small impact overall.
Overall, weather and the field’s surface type have limited impacts on rushing offense.
Year-in and year-out, there is buzz about versatile college players leading up to the NFL draft. Coming out of college, names like Tyrann Mathieu, Jabrill Peppers, Derwin James, and most recently Isaiah Simmons were heralded as utility players that defensive coordinators would have the luxury of lining up anywhere across the field. This versatility is highly valued and often leads to a high draft selection for players who display position flexibility at the college level, as seen by the names mentioned above.
While there is uncertainty heading into the 2020 season, with several conferences already eliminating out-of-conference matchups, it is still worthwhile to take a look at some players who may end up being the best all-around defender heading into next year’s draft.
The table below shows the top five returning NCAA defenders in terms of Total Points Saved on defensive snaps who made an impact at all three levels of the defense in 2019. Each recorded at least 100 snaps aligned at defensive back, off-ball linebacker, and defensive line (which includes standing edge rushers). Each player is listed with their upcoming school year and relevant 2019 statistics.
Name
Year
Pos
School
Snaps
DB%
LB%
DL%
Total Points
Joseph Ossai
Junior
LB
Texas
812
19%
47%
34%
65
Antjuan Simmons
Senior
LB
Michigan State
828
42%
46%
12%
58
JaCoby Stevens
Senior
S
LSU
931
69%
17%
14%
42
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Senior
LB
Notre Dame
671
56%
26%
19%
37
Tyreke Davis
Senior
LB
North Texas
690
16%
58%
27%
36
Joseph Ossai
The lengthy 6’4” 255 lbs Ossai was a force on the Longhorns’ defense last season, ranking fifth in Total Points Saved among all linebackers in the NCAA (second among returning linebackers). Aside from quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who ranked eighth in Total Points among all NCAA players, Ossai was the most valuable player on the team in terms of the statistic. While mostly lining up as an off-ball linebacker, more than one-third of his snaps came on the defensive line – primarily as a standing edge rusher. When outside of the box, Ossai exclusively lined up as a slot defender.
Ossai led the Texas defense with 90 tackles on the season and 14.5 tackles for loss. He was extremely productive against the pass, ranking eighth among linebackers in Pass Defense Total Points Saved. While rushing on 46% of passes, Ossai was able to generate pressure on 20% of pass rushes and sack the quarterback four times. He also recorded two interceptions while in pass coverage. With a similar showing this season, Ossai may end up foregoing his senior year and declaring for the 2021 draft.
Antjuan Simmons
Simmons’ performance in 2019 placed him 15th among all linebackers in terms of Total Points Saved (second among returning Big 10 linebackers). He led the Spartans’ defense in Total Points and finished second among all players on the team, behind quarterback Brian Lewerke. Simmons spent almost as much time outside of the box as a slot defender as he did in the box as an off-ball linebacker. Occasionally, he lined up as a standing edge rusher with 101 of his snaps coming from the position.
Simmons led the Michigan State defense in tackles with 88 on the season, 15.5 of which were tackles for loss. He was effective against both the run and pass, ranking 25th and 22nd at linebacker in Total Points Saved versus each, respectively. While mainly utilized in coverage against the pass-ranking 22nd at the position in Pass Coverage Total Points Saved and allowing a completion percentage of only 46% when targeted-Simmons was also efficient when rushing the passer, generating 3.5 sacks while only rushing 19% of the time. Entering his senior year, Simmons will be an intriguing prospect to watch this season who will likely end up hearing his name called in the 2021 draft.
JaCoby Stevens
A key player in LSU’s perfect 2019 season, Stevens finished as the 21st ranked safety in terms of Total Points Saved (second among returning SEC safeties). A versatile full-time starter on a defense loaded with NFL talent, Stevens lined up mainly at defensive back, evenly splitting time as a deep safety and slot defender. When in the slot, he rarely lined up in press coverage – only 17 out of 325 snaps. When in the box, Stevens lined up as either an off-ball linebacker or as a standing edge rusher.
Stevens was very active in 2019, contributing 93 tackles (second on team) and 9.5 tackles for loss. He had similar production against the run and pass, ranking 30th and 38th among safeties in Total Points Saved versus each, respectively. In coverage, Stevens broke up nine passes on 31 targets, three of which were interceptions. He shows a particular knack for rushing the passer, generating pressure rates of 26% and 43% in each of the last two seasons along with sack rates of 8% and 10%. If Stevens is able to continue his high level of production for the Tigers’ defense in his senior season, he will command a high selection in the 2021 draft.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
In his first season as a starter, Owusu-Koramoah was runner-up for Total Points Saved on Notre Dame’s defense (first among returning defensive players). He played the majority of his snaps as a slot defender. When not in the slot, just over a quarter of his snaps came as an off-ball linebacker and nearly 20% came as a standing edge rusher.
Owusu-Koramoah finished the season with 76 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles. His versatility is seen against the pass. Despite mainly being a coverage player, Owusu-Koramoah was able to generate pressure on 27% of his rushes and finished with 5.5 sacks. Another year as a starter with similar or better production will surely boost his stock for the 2021 draft.
Tyreke Davis
The highest rated returning three level defender in terms of Total Points Saved from Group of Five schools, Davis led the Mean Green defense in the statistic last year. The majority of his snaps came as an off-ball linebacker, followed by over a quarter of snaps as a standing edge rusher and 107 snaps as a slot defender.
The All-Conference USA Honorable Mention recorded 79 tackles with a team-leading 14.5 tackles for loss. From a Total Points perspective, Davis is stronger against the run than against the pass on a per-snap basis. However, his skills against the pass are not to be overlooked, as he generated pressure on 27% of pass rushes, generating 4.5 sacks. While impressive statistically, seeing Davis play on Sundays may be a long shot given his size- 5’10” 209 lbs. His best chance may be to improve upon his pass coverage skills and transition to more of a defensive back role.
Sports Info Solutions head of business development Corey March (@corey_march1) and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome Football Outsiders Senior Analyst Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) to the show to talk all things fantasy football for the 2020 season. The group discusses expectations for rookies (4:00) and roster construction strategies and league changes that could be useful during the COVID era (10:44). They then transition into an explanation of the KUBIAK fantasy rankings (16:27) before looking at under- and overvalued fantasy players at quarterback (21:51), running back (31:33), wide receiver (39:08), and tight end (45:38).
EA Sports has begun to slowly unveil their player ratings for Madden 2021. Getting angry at video games is silly but this is typically a dead period for football news and the ratings are the only thing the developer ever changes, so it’s something for people to do. And as long as EA continues to undertake the impossible task of accurately quantifying player skill, people will continue to critique them.
We’d like to approach this with more nuance than anger, so we’ll intake ratings as they’re released and contrast anything noteworthy to our suite of advanced stats.
Just two QBs over a 95. Rodgers outside the 90s club.
Tom Brady showed signs of decline last year, so Madden rating him a 90 overall and making him the fifth-best quarterback in the game seems nostalgic. He had his worst season of the Total Points era (2016-present) in 2019, ranking 19th in Passing Total Points/60 Snaps (8.2) after ranking 1st (16.2), 6th (12.9), and 4th (11.3) in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. While I’m sympathetic to the talent sink in New England last season, that’s a pretty steady decline.
EA Sports also released the top ten running backs in broken tackle rating, and did a pretty good job with it. Saquon Barkley (12th), Joe Mixon (13th), and Dalvin Cook (17th) all fell outside of our top 10 in broken tackle rate among RBs with at least 150 carries in 2019.
Kareem Hunt didn’t qualify for that leaderboard this year, but ranked eighth in that metric in 2018, which is about where he’s slotted in Madden 2021. Mark Ingram, who ranked first among that group with 18.8 Broken Tackles Per 100 Carries, arguably deserved the highest rating, but there aren’t a lot of gripes to be had with these ratings otherwise.
Because the ratings reveal is ultimately a marketing campaign, EA Sports still has a lot of cards up its sleeve. Top 10 lists can be hard to argue with just because they inevitably include good players, so the real dissection begins once they release full rosters. We will continue to keep an eye on the information they release and update this piece with anything that sticks out as interesting.
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) devote a full episode to Patrick Mahomes after the Chiefs locked up their franchise QB with a mega-contract earlier this week. The duo discusses what the contract means (1:46), what separates him from other QBs (6:28), if there is an aspect of his game that has been unexpected (10:07), where he stands in terms of injury risk (12:46), what’s the best way to try to defend him (15:44), which Chiefs receiver has the most upside (21:32), how good the offensive line is (25:03), the impact of rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (28:33), and if his stardom means anything beyond his on-field performance (32:52).
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome ESPN Stats and Info Research Specialist Evan Kaplan (@EpKap) to the show to discuss how football stats and analytics are represented on TV. The group opens with some Cam Newton discussion (1:01) before transitioning to an explanation of Evan’s job at ESPN and how he works with hosts to prepare them for shows (9:00), how he balances serving both analytically-inclined and casual fans at the same time (12:24), how much push-back he gets from ex-players when it comes to analytics (17:26), and what the future holds for football analytics on TV (25:16).
It’s not often that a move that everyone talks about as a potentially interesting story actually comes to fruition.
Since Tom Brady’s official departure from the Patriots, people have been intrigued by the possibility of another former MVP stepping in to replace him in Cam Newton. Now we have the opportunity to find out not only what a Patriots offense looks like without Tom Brady, but what it looks like when it’s headed by one of the most prolific rushers to ever play quarterback.
Of course, with Bill Belichick’s penchant for changing game plans wildly from week to week, it’s probably not prudent to try to guess at how the Pats’ offense might change with Cam under center. Instead, we’ll just compare Newton to Brady along a few dimensions, assessing where the Patriots might be able to sustain their performance and where they might fall back a bit.
Newton certainly represents a downgrade from pre-2019 Brady, but last we saw Cam for a full-ish season he was roughly as effective as Brady was last year, so perhaps Patriots fans shouldn’t be concerned? Let’s run down a few narratives that could help inform the discussion.
The offense was in decline already, so the risk is low
The biggest thing to keep in mind here is that the hole left by Brady isn’t nearly as big as it would have been had he departed a few years earlier. The Patriots had been mainstays in the upper tier of offenses with Brady at the helm, but 2019 was definitely a down year. Look at their decline in Expected Points Added per play.
Brady himself didn’t decline as much in terms of total value as he did on a per-snap basis thanks to a top-five attempt total. He ranked barely outside the top ten in Total Points among quarterbacks, but on a per-play basis was very much in the middle class.
Tom Brady’s Ranks Among Quarterbacks by Season
Season
Total Points
Total Points per Play
2016
7th
1st
2017
3rd
9th
2018
6th
8th
2019
11th
18th
Newton’s precision in a quick-hitting New England offense
This might be surprising given their reputations, but Newton has actually outperformed Brady on quick-hitting throws over the last two years. His 9.9 Total Points per 60 plays (TP/60) on zero-to-one step drops outpaces that of Brady (7.7) since the start of 2018.
A corollary of the narrative about Newton’s accuracy is that he has a history of making the best out of bigger, slower receivers like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess because he doesn’t have Brady’s pinpoint accuracy. Moving from an offense headed by two sub-six-foot receivers (D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel) and to one with some bigger targets (N’Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu Sr.) could work out better for Cam than it had for Brady.
For what it’s worth, if one of these quarterbacks does better with bigger targets, it’s Brady. Over the last two seasons, his Total Points per 60 plays when throwing to receivers at least 6’0″ tall improves, while Newton’s declines.
Total Points per 60 Plays by Targeted Receiver Height, 2018-19
Under 6’0″
6’0″ or Taller
Cam Newton
11.9
7.4
Tom Brady
10.6
13.2
Adding a new dimension via the running game
Newton’s athleticism is the most obvious X factor. You don’t need any stats to convince you that Newton’s rushing ability could open up the offense in a way we’ve never seen. The Ravens showed with their transition from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson what kind of transformation an offense can make to support an elite athlete.
That said, Cam hasn’t actually been that valuable with his legs, at least in recent seasons. Looking at the four years we have Total Points data for, he has actually cost his team value in three of the past four seasons. Some of that is the likelihood of fumbles on quarterback runs. But over the last four years he’s still only accumulated 6 Total Points on the more than 300 carries in which he didn’t fumble.
It’s worth acknowledging that Newton’s impact on the running game isn’t just limited to his own carries. As Steven Ruiz points out, his presence should open up opportunities for his running backs because other teams have to account for his rushing ability. But considering the wear and tear his body has already sustained and the lack of history the Patriots have with such athletes at quarterback, it’s fair to be conservative on Newton’s potential value on the ground. But on a one-year incentive-laden contract, perhaps anything is possible schematically.
The Final Word?
The Patriots’ signing of Cam Newton is a spike of interest in what has otherwise been a quiet offseason among all the other things going on in the world. Unfortunately, there are so many question marks involved in this transaction. We’re talking about an injury-riddled player with a totally different athletic profile to that of a player who had spent two decades on the same team. Anyone trying to assess the situation analytically should be forgiven regarding the uncertainty.
But it seems to me that these key narratives that people might point to for one reason or another are tending to go the opposite direction of what you’d think initially. And with Bill Belichick still at the helm of the Patriots, perhaps it is the best course of action to sit back and wait instead of assuming we know what will happen in Foxboro.
John Elway doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to quarterback evaluation. While he deserves credit for “discovering” four-time NFL MVP Peyton Manning, he’s spent multiple top-60 selections on busts at the position.
The first failed experiment was Brock Osweiler, who eventually retired after the Dolphins decided a better alternative to his services would be to trade a second- and fifth-round pick for a quarterback coming off one of the worst passing seasons in the Total Points era (2016-present). Said quarterback (Josh Rosen) ultimately failed to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who, by the way, has a career average net yards per attempt (5.59) that is just one one-hundredth of a yard below Elway’s.
But, no lessons were learned there. As soon as the Texans outbid Elway’s 3-year, $45M offer to Osweiler in the 2016 offseason, Elway spent a first-round pick on Paxton Lynch. That went so well that Osweiler was welcomed back to Denver in 2017 after playing poorly elsewhere. Osweiler attempted more passes for the Broncos that season than Lynch, who was cut after just two years and spent 2019 as the Steelers’ fourth-string quarterback behind an undrafted rookie out of Samford. Simply put: a competent successor to Manning has proven as elusive to Elway as a 60% completion rate was during his playing career.
Or has it?
Elway used the 42nd overall pick on Drew Lock, who was a late bloomer as a rookie and started the final five games of the season. The Broncos’ 4-1 record in those games has inspired fan confidence in Lock, but impartial viewers may be more skeptical of a five-game sample. Furthermore, Lock’s 6 Passing Total Points/60 Snaps ranked just 22nd among 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. If we want to excuse his worst performance in a 23-3 loss to Chiefs on account of the winter weather conditions, that Total Points/60 figure jumps to 14 and ranks fifth in the NFL. No matter how you look at it, it’s hard to be sure about Lock entering his second year.
Conversely, it’s easy to see why some people are excited about him. He’s aggressive, flashes plus arm talent, and has the athleticism and creativity to improvise effectively. In just a few games, Lock showed that he was capable of making impressive throws outside the numbers:
Into tight windows:
And on the run:
But, as was the case on this last play, he’s also capable of making things harder on himself than they need to be. His primary read, which was the field out by the motion receiver, was open all the way and he never should have come off of it. The result was the same, but the process was inferior. And on more than one occasion, Lock’s bad process yielded a bad result.
His second career interception is a microcosm of his decisionmaking going into Year 2. It’s 2nd & 10 from the Houston 25-yard line with Denver up 38-14 with 2:47 to go in the third quarter. A field goal here would put the Broncos up four scores and effectively end the game.
The Texans end up in a split-field coverage with what appears to be quarters to the trips side and 2-man on the single receiver side. Lock seems to like the pre-snap matchup Courtland Sutton has and checks the boundary safety (#39), but he either misdiagnoses what the safety’s responsibility is or makes a bad decision to throw this ball. Perhaps he could have gotten away with it if he had been more decisive and hadn’t double-clutched, but the ball was badly underthrown, anyway. The result is an interception which likely took points off the board for Denver.
This is a less egregious error. It’s 2nd & 20 with 3:30 to go in the first quarter, and the Broncos are down 3-0 to the Lions. Detroit is playing Tampa 2 here, and the result is a checkdown to Royce Freeman (No, 28). On paper, this is a 7-yard completion, but it’s really a missed opportunity. Given the depth of the MIKE’s drop, the middle hook area should be vacated, and Jeff Heuerman (No. 82) is consequently open over the ball. Failing to target him isn’t the worst mistake in the world, but neither the WILL nor the weak safety are in a position to cover the dig route by Noah Fant (No. 87). These compounding errors set up a 3rd & long which the Broncos ultimately failed to convert.
Lock was undeniably physically talented coming out of Missouri and that continues to be the case. In spite of some bad process, he was very efficient from a Total Points standpoint when he wasn’t playing in a blizzard. However, his mental processing and decision-making have not yet caught up to his physical abilities, and that’s a recipe for volatility. On top of that, a five-game sample could be high-variance and does little to assuage concerns about the sustainability of his play. There’s only one thing we should be comfortable saying about Drew Lock at this point in time:
