The timelines can vary, but most people in the personnel community would agree that by the end of their third professional season, you usually know how good a player is. Perhaps that is why the cutoff point to accept a first-rounder’s fifth-year option falls in the May following their third year.
That deadline has passed and only two of the three quarterbacks taken in the first round had their options picked up. The Chiefs and the Texans opted in on Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, respectively, whereas the Bears traded a fourth-round pick for Nick Foles’ bloated contract and decided on a four-year term limit for Mitch Trubisky.
This means that Marquise Williams’ old backup at UNC is currently not guaranteed to make any money in the NFL after the upcoming campaign, but it’s still possible for him to earn 2021 guarantees similar to what his former backup Chase Daniel earned this offseason ($1.5M). Now would be a good time to compare the members of the 2017 quarterback class.
For this article, we’ll contrast Trubisky and Mahomes. There are several ways we can do this. We can do it by career accolades:
Mahomes
Trubisky
NFL MVP (2018)
Ohio’s Mr. Football (2012)
NFL OPOY (2018)
247Sports’ #206 HS recruit (2013)
NFL passing TDs leader (2018)
Third-team All-ACC (2016)
2x Pro Bowl (2018, 2019)
2nd overall pick in NFL Draft (2017)
Super Bowl champion (LIV)
Pro Bowl alternate (2018)
Super Bowl MVP (LIV)
We can do it by comparing weekly performance from a Total Points perspective:
Or, we can do it by comparing how they executed some of the same concepts in 2019.
Mesh out of 2×2 Slot Gun Weak
Week 16 (KC at CHI) Q4 10:11
The Chiefs are facing 3rd & 8 on the +14 (i.e., the opponent’s 14 yard line), and they’re looking to extend their two-touchdown lead and put the game away with roughly ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Mahomes appears to be expecting man coverage pre-snap and alerts the wheel route. When he sees the traffic created by the route distribution post-snap, he confirms that Nick Kwiatkoski (#44) will not be in a good position to leverage the wheel and lays it out for Damien Williams, showing Trubisky and the Bears how it’s done.
Week 3 (CHI at WAS) Q3 3:18
That play occurred in Week 16, though–months after Trubisky’s Monday night mishap against Washington on the same concept from the same formation. On 2nd & 3 from the +6, Trubisky’s eyes go to Allen Robinson off the snap. This is fine; it’s a good matchup and you would generally expect Robinson to be the first receiver in the progression in this look.
The problem is, Trubisky never comes off it. Josh Norman remains patient at the LOS and gets a good collision to deny a clean release on the fade. Nevertheless, Trubisky giftwraps an underthrow to Norman, giving him his only pick of the season–one in which he ranked 114th in pass defense Points Saved (-2).
Curl-Flat out of 3×1 Gun Weak
Week 16 (KC at CHI) Q1 3:32
Trubisky has yet another opportunity to witness how a franchise quarterback operates in a critical situation, this time on 3rd & Long. It’s a tie game in the first quarter, Kansas City is facing 3rd & 18 on the +47, and Andy Reid has dialed up curl-flat to the sticks. The post safety ends up being too deep to drive and assist the nickel defender, and Mahomes delivers a laser to Tyreek Hill for the first down.
Week 1 (GB at CHI) Q2 2:19
https://streamable.com/lojper
That route is the first read for Trubisky, too, but he’s once again too reluctant to move on. On 3rd & 14 from his own 23, he stares down Robinson and narrowly avoids disaster.
The Packers are in a quarter-quarter-half look, and the positioning of both the mike linebacker and the strong safety suggest that Trubisky should come off this read and look towards the outside curl. Instead, he affords the strong safety an opportunity to drive on the route and make a play on the ball.
Four Verts out of 3×1 Open Gun Weak
Week 14 (DAL at CHI) Q4 11:33
https://streamable.com/fmx1tf
Unlike some of the other plays, it’s hard to fault Trubisky for the decision he makes here. It’s the fourth quarter, the Bears are down three scores, and it’s 3rd & 7, so he admittedly needs to make something happen. If this is 1st & 10, it might be a different story, but I have no problem with him trusting his best receiver here.
The problem is that he doesn’t give Robinson a chance to make a play on the ball. Byron Jones quickly tops this route and the only way to beat his coverage is to backshoulder the throw. It’s definitely not an exercise in pitch-and-catch, but the inability to see the leverage and adjust accordingly is certainly less than ideal.
Week 3 (BAL at KC) Q2 0:53
https://streamable.com/usairy
Mahomes, though, is able to recognize the kind of throw he needs to make whenever the corner denies vertical access. In this play, the corner’s body positioning is more exaggerated – he’s in a bail technique and isn’t playing tight to the route–but Mahomes nevertheless demonstrates an understanding of where he needs to put the ball. Again, these are not easy completions to make, but NFL quarterbacks need to be able to provide such opportunities to their receivers.
Conclusion
Chicagoan holders-on might tell you that Foles’ arrival will be enough to jumpstart Trubisky’s career, but he’s never ranked better than 28th in passing Total Points in a season and seems a lost cause at this point. Both the numbers and the film lead to the same conclusion: Trubisky has a long way to go in order to prove that he can operate an NFL offense effectively.
Every NFL season we see young players who haven’t cracked the starting lineup, but nevertheless flash big-time potential. These players have taken advantage of their limited opportunities and hope to build upon them to become larger contributors the next season. Here we will highlight some of these players from last season who hope to breakout in 2020.
Players were chosen based on their performance in the SIS player value metric Total Points per Snap. To qualify for this list players have to be entering either their second or third NFL season and must have played between 10 and 40 percent of their teams’ snaps in 2019.
Guice has so far had trouble staying healthy during his first two seasons in the NFL. But when he was healthy last season, he flashed high-end potential. His 5.8 yards per rush average ranked second among backs with at least 40 carries. And he ranked first in Yards After Contact (4.6) and fourth in Broken Tackles Per 100 Rushes (28.6).
Tony Pollard, RB Cowboys
Pollard will continue to be a role player for the foreseeable future. When he is given the opportunity, he is an explosive player in both the running and passing game. As a rookie, he averaged more Yards Per Rush (5.3), Yards After Contact (4.0), and Broken Tackles Per 100 Rushes (26.7) than starter Ezekiel Elliott (4.5, 2.6, and 14.6).
Ryan Connelly, LB Giants
Connelly was well on his way to a breakout season as a rookie, before being derailed by a torn ACL. When he returns from injury, look for him to build on his 2019 season that included 20 Tackles, 3 Pressures, 2 Interceptions, and an ATD+ of 155 in only 4 games played.
George Odum, S Colts
Odum has been a reserve safety for the Colts the past two seasons since going undrafted in 2018. He put up a solid 2019 campaign racking up 36 Tackles, 2 Forced Fumbles, and allowing a completion percentage of 67% (8 completions) on 12 Targets.
Rashad Fenton, CB Chiefs
In limited playing time, mostly consisting of sub packages, Fenton had an efficient season for the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. On 15 Targets, he allowed only 6 completions and 4.6 Yards Per Target.
T.J. Edwards, LB Eagles
After going undrafted a year ago, Edwards is now projected to be the Eagles starting middle linebacker. His play in limited opportunities last season bodes well for his new role. He was above average against the run with an Adjusted Tackle Depth+ of 115 and 4 Tackles Above Expectation on designed running plays.
Foyesade Oluokun, LB Falcons
As a reserve linebacker, Oluokun made quite a few plays, racking up 62 tackles on only 291 defensive snaps. In coverage, he allowed 10 of his 12 targets to be completed. Though, he allowed only 3.3 Yards Per Target, which resulted in a combined -11.2 EPA for the offense.
Chandon Sullivan, CB Packers
Sullivan is the front-runner to take over the primary nickel spot for the Packers in 2020. In 2019, he was one of the most efficient corners in the entire NFL, allowing a league low Completion Percentage of 28.6 among corners with at least 20 targets. He also allowed a league low 3.5 Yards Per Target and broke up almost as many passes (5) as he allowed receptions (6).
D.J. Reed, S 49ers
Similarly to Fenton, Reed is another secondary player who has excelled in sub packages and could breakout if given the opportunity. After allowing a completion percentage of 81.3% during his rookie season, last year Reed allowed 5 completions on 10 targets.
Darius Phillips, CB Bengals
During his career at Western Michigan, Phillips set the FBS record with 12 non-offensive touchdowns. He hasn’t had the same level of success quite yet in the NFL, but showed his immense potential in 2019. In coverage, he was targeted 12 times, allowed only 4 Completions, had 4 Interceptions and dropped another one, and added 3 Passes Defensed.
Sports Info Solutions currently tracks approximately 40 routes run by potential receivers. Many players are better at running some routes than others, while some routes fit a player’s skill set better than others.
When looking at the stat Yards per Target (yards gained / number of targets), it gives a good indicator of how efficient receivers are at piling up yards each time their quarterback targets them. I found the most efficient receiver at six routes, or set of routes among those players who just moved on from college to the NFL and looked at their 2019 film to see what characteristics make them stand out among the rest.
The biggest thing that stands out when watching Ceedee Lamb run curl routes is his route savvy. He does a great job of reading defenses and identifying coverages. When defenders bail off the line, Lamb breaks off his route and lets his quarterback know he’s open right away. He’s able to find the open holes in zones and work away from defenders to give his quarterback a better throwing lane and give him an uncontested catch opportunity. Lamb is also really good at breaking the defender’s cushion and getting him to flip his hips just at the top of the route.
Once Lamb makes the catch, his run after catch ability allows him to turn a 5-10 yard curl route into a 20-30 yard gain. Of his 13 receptions on curl routes this season, four of them went for at least 20 yards. In a Cowboys offense in which Dak Prescott targeted a curl route on over 19% of his attempts in 2019, look for Lamb to come in right away and contribute early on.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Trevon Grimes, Florida (4SR)
2020 Draft: Undrafted – Signed by Kansas City Chiefs
The out route is a route that demands one of the most precise cuts by a receiver. Inefficient route runners often will round cuts at the top of their routes. However, regardless if the receiver is using a true speed cut or not, the route needs to be flat to the sideline and not veer upfield or that’s when the corner can jump it for an interception. With all of that said, there’s a reason why Cody White was the most efficient out route runner in 2019, and that’s because he possesses the traits needed to run a textbook out route.
White is quick off the line and does a really good job at the top of the route to drop his weight, stick his inside foot in the ground, and quickly break outside. He also has an uncanny ability of getting his head snapped around extremely quick.
The video below is the first play for Michigan State’s offense in their bowl game against Wake Forest. It’s a great look at White’s ability to stick his foot in the ground at the top of the route and then snap his head around to look for the ball. It’s so good that the corner slips trying to break with him.
https://youtu.be/LW1mtBHGWNg
When the ball approaches, White has strong hands to pluck the ball out of the air. He has the awareness along the sideline to stay inbounds on balls thrown close to the sideline and also can turn upfield and gain yards after the catch. His efficient route-running ability should give him a chance to win a back-end job for the reigning Super Bowl Champions.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Warren Jackson, Colorado State (4SR)
2020 Draft: Round 7, Pick #217 – San Francisco 49ers
Jennings lined up in the slot 76% of the time in 2019 and all 13 of his slant routes came from that spot. He’s not the fastest guy in the world (40 yard dash in 4.72 seconds at the Combine), but he makes up for it with good, precise route running.
Even when defenders have inside leverage on him, he does a good job stemming his route off the line and getting the defender to hop outside to give Jennings an inside release. At the top of the route, Jennings nearly always sticks his foot in the ground with authority to create separation. He possesses strong hands which allow him to pluck the ball out of the air and does a really good job of getting upfield quickly after the catch to break the angles of incoming defenders and gaining extra chunks of yardage.
https://youtu.be/mb9V_FbtwQw
He did have two on-target incompletions on slant routes, both in the Alabama game. One was a good defensive play to break up the pass at the catch point and the other was a concentration drop that turned into an interception. With those aside, Jennings’ route running allows for him to take a short pass for a long gain. The NCAA average yards per reception on slant routes is just over 13 yards, but Jennings was able to take 7 of 11 receptions beyond that in 2019.
The 49ers have a really strong, young crop of players at the position in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jalen Hurd, among others, but Jennings shows enough traits to contribute at the next level, whether it’s one of the last roster spots in San Francisco or with another team.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: DeVonta Smith, Alabama (4SR)
Campbell’s stat line is ridiculous. After coming to West Virginia from Florida State in 2019, Campbell caught 19 passes for 469 yards and 7 touchdowns. Additionally, 32% of his receptions and a whopping 56% of his yardage came via the post route, along with 3 of his 7 scores.
When watching Campbell run the post, it’s obvious he has the speed to win deep. If he’s pressed, his quickness off the line allows him to gain a free release and get into his route quickly. If the defender is playing off, Campbell does a good job of attacking him and then usually gives a quick, hard jab to the outside to open up the middle of the field.
Once he gets by the defender, he has the speed to create additional separation. He also possesses really good tracking ability down the field to adjust to off-target throws and still make the grab.
There is a lot of youth and uncertainty in the Jets wide receiver room right now with the exception of Jamison Crowder. Campbell has enough traits to win himself one of the last receiver spots with a good camp.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Reggie Roberson, SMU (4SR)
Duvernay is primarily a slot receiver, so all of his corner routes came out of the slot. In addition to his speed and quickness, he also possesses smarts in that he knows how to set up his route based on defender leverage. Many times he will stem to the inside off the line against defenders with inside leverage so that he can get on the same plane. At that point, he gets the defender guessing if he’s going outside or inside. Duvernay’s quickness at the top of the route allows him to gain separation as he heads for the sideline.
https://youtu.be/2BTGTTJ1vT8
He also shows strong hands to make contested catches and has good awareness and body control to stay in bounds along the sideline. Not only can he use the corner route to win deep, but he scored twice running the corner inside the 15 yard line, showing it’s an effective target type at all areas of the field.
In Baltimore’s offense, look for Duvernay to thrive out of the slot for quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Khalil Shakir, Boise State (3JR)
When you think of vertical routes, you just think of running by the defender, letting the quarterback throw it to you, and that’s that, but there’s much more to it, especially in Higgins’ case. First off, Higgins was able to get to the end zone on 6 of his 10 receptions via vertical routes, which is an absurd percentage.
He shows a burst and second gear once he gets by the defender to create even more separation with speed. In addition to that, his ability to track the ball in the air is exceptional. Higgins possesses a large catch radius and great body control to find the ball and go get it.
When a defender contests the catch, Higgins’ high point ability and strong hands allow him to still go up and make the grab. On underthrown passes, he’s even shown on more than one occasion that he can backpedal the last few steps away from the defender, use his hands to create extra separation, and go get the ball. The video below shows one of those examples.
https://youtu.be/67UoP0xHFnE
LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase led all of college football in yardage on these routes with 461 in 2019. His quarterback? New Bengals signal caller Joe Burrow. Look for Higgins and Burrow to get well-acquainted early on in Cincinnati.
Top 2021 Draft Eligible Prospect: Isaiah McKoy, Kent State (3JR)
NCAA Average Comparison
Now when comparing each of the players we just looked at to the NCAA averages, we can see how much they stand out. All six of these receivers turned average gains into explosive ones on their respective routes. Look for these players to excel at these routes if and when given the opportunity at the next level.
Most Efficient Receivers Returning in 2020
I’ve highlighted six names to watch for next season on certain routes in the NFL, but who are the most efficient route runners overall that are returning to college? The table below shows the top five players in Yards per Target who are returning in 2020. True Juniors dominate the list with 4th-year Senior DeVonta Smith in there as well.
Player
College
Eligibility
Targets
Rec
Yards
YPT
Ja’Marr Chase
LSU
3JR
124
84
1780
14.4
DeVonta Smith
Alabama
4SR
89
76
1259
14.2
Rashod Bateman
Minnesota
3JR
98
70
1219
12.4
Chatarius Atwell
Louisville
3JR
106
70
1276
12.0
Dyami Brown
UNC
3JR
86
51
1034
12.0
*minimum of 75 targets
It’s pretty easy to see why LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase leads the way. The 2019 Biletnikoff Award Winner, Chase helped lead LSU’s new-look offense to a National Championship by hauling in nearly 1,800 yards on 14.4 YPT.
DeVonta Smith surprised many by not declaring for the NFL Draft and returning to Alabama for his Senior season. He likely could be the best of the Alabama trio of receivers when things are all said and done.
For Rashod Bateman at Minnesota, he no longer has Tyler Johnson on the team to draw coverage away from his side. We’ll see if he can stay productive even with one of the most efficient quarterbacks in Tanner Morgan throwing to him.
Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell returns to what could be a dynamic Louisville offense which has Dez Fitzpatrick lining up with Atwell on the outside catching balls from Malik Cunningham.
North Carolina’s Dyami Brown also has a strong supporting cast. Dazz Newsome is another one of the top returning receivers in college football for 2020. They have a pretty good quarterback as well in Sam Howell controlling the offense.
Conclusion
Some players are more efficient at running certain routes than others. While it’s best to have a receiver that can run nearly every route on the route tree, it’s also good to gameplan around what receivers do best. Being efficient leads to yardage gained, which leads to first downs, which lead to touchdowns, which are points that ultimately lead to wins.
Half of the receivers among these six routes/route sets we took a look at were selected in the first three rounds of the draft just a short time ago. Find receivers that can run routes well and be efficient when given the opportunity, and you’ll likely find some of the better talent that’s headed to play on Sundays.
Dwayne Haskins’ rookie season did not start well. Technically, it started on the bench behind Case Keenum, but it really didn’t start well when he threw three interceptions in relief of Keenum against the division rival Giants.
It didn’t end well, either. Haskins exited Washington’s Week 16 contest against the Cowboys with an ankle injury and rested for a lame duck game the following week.
But it really didn’t end well when people punctuated his season with speculation about whether the franchise should have given Haskins the hook and taken Tua Tagovailoa with the second overall pick. Of course, there was precedent for this considering we weren’t yet a year removed from the Cardinals defunding the Josh Rosen experiment in favor of Kyler Murray, but Haskins also wasn’t unequivocally the worst rookie passer in the Total Points era.
Scouting Analysis
It’s important to distinguish outcomes from processes, especially when it comes to rookie quarterbacks. The results weren’t always there and he could have accelerated his reads at times, especially when the picture changed post-snap, but Haskins’ process was sound most of the time. He did a good job of identifying defensive structures pre-snap and generally had the right idea of where to go with the ball.
Take, for example, this play against Buffalo in his first NFL start. It’s 2nd & 6 and Washington is on its own 44-yard line. The Bills present a quarters look pre-snap and stay in it post-snap. Haskins has a ‘snag’ or ‘spot’ concept to the boundary, which theoretically does not fare very well against Cover 4.
He initially looks to the boundary side but quickly comes off once he confirms it’s quarters. Since Tremaine Edmunds opens to the boundary, Haskins knows he has McLaurin isolated against Lorenzo Alexander and takes his chances. It’s a tight window throw and it’s ultimately broken up, but he demonstrated quick processing, got the ball out before pressure arrived, and gave his receiver a chance to make a play.
In the NFL, you win some and you lose some. Haskins lost here, but it’s a good rep nevertheless.
The biggest thing that affected Haskins’ game as a rookie was his footwork. Maintaining a base when navigating the pocket, quick game setup, and effectively resetting to targets later in his progressions created issues with accuracy for him.
His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) of -6.4% and his on-target rate of 75.4% ranked 34th out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, respectively. However, these issues with footwork appeared on his college tape, so growing pains were to be expected and are not cause to hit the panic button on him. It’s a lot easier to correct a quarterback’s footwork than to teach him how to read a defense, which Haskins has shown he’s able to do.
Furthermore, sacks really hampered Haskins’ efficiency from a Total Points perspective. He endured the second-highest sack rate (11.9%) among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Although quarterbacks do contribute to their own sack numbers, Haskins looks much better when you examine just his attempts.
After removing sacks, his 17.9 passing Total Points Added/100 Dropbacks ranks 18th. That put him just below Kyler Murray (18.3, 17th) and above all of the following: Tom Brady (16.5, 22nd), Gardner Minshew (16.1, 23rd), Josh Allen (15.3, 24th), Daniel Jones (14.0, 25th), Sam Darnold (13.6, 26th), and Baker Mayfield (10.0, 31st). It was also better than Drew Lock’s 13.6, but Lock was a nonqualifier.
Washington may have been uniquely situated to take Tagovailoa, but Haskins was more efficient as a passer than many members of both the 2018 and 2019 quarterback classes. There are reasons for trepidation with him moving forward – specifically, the lapses in accuracy that his footwork causes – but he demonstrated that he can handle the NFL game mentally and his first-read accuracy is much better than that of first-round fixer-uppers of drafts past.
As Haskins tries to rebuild from the ground up, the organization must do so with him, and they appear to be ready to do that. For now, I think they made the right choice, but only time will tell.
In 2019, the Virginia Cavaliers football team reached heights not seen by the program in recent memory, reclaiming the Commonwealth Cup, winning the ACC Coastal Division, and appearing in the Orange Bowl. Much of the team’s success on the field can be attributed to the play of 2nd Team All-ACC quarterback, Bryce Perkins.
Statistically speaking, Perkins was one of the top quarterbacks in the country last season, ranking tenth in the NCAA in Total Points, SIS’s individual player contribution metric. Perkins was more important to his offense than nearly every other player was to their own in 2019, accounting for 78% of UVA’s offensive yardage (trailing only Anthony Gordon’s 84%). Needless to say, there are big shoes to fill at quarterback in Charlottesville next season.
Virginia has been winning on the recruiting trail, in an effort to replace the talent lost from last year’s graduating class. According to 247Sports, the Hoos 2021 recruiting class ranks 21st overall, with eight new high school commitments since April 21. Additionally, Virginia secured the transfer of dual-threat quarterback, Keytaon Thompson from Mississippi State. Thompson joins the Cavaliers with two seasons of eligibility remaining and will be immediately eligible.
Thompson is expected to battle redshirt sophomore Brennan Armstrong, who backed up Perkins in each of the previous two seasons, for the starting job in 2020. Armstrong (6’2”, 220 lbs) has a similar build to Perkins (6’3”, 215 lbs) according to the team roster. Not much can be made from Armstrong’s in-game experience at the collegiate level, as he has only seen 72 offensive snaps, which have primarily come in cleanup duty. However, entering his third season in offensive coordinator Robert Anae’s system, Armstrong has experience of the playbook on his side in this position battle, which could be the deciding factor given the shortened offseason.
Like Armstrong, Thompson served in a backup role while at Mississippi State, however Thompson also has starting experience and is 2-0 as a starter (notching a win in his first career start against Lamar Jackson’s Louisville Cardinals). Thompson carries a larger frame than that of Armstrong (and Perkins), at 6’4” 225 lbs and was a higher ranked recruit, according to 247Sports Composite.
In Mississippi State’s offense, Thompson wasn’t asked to do extensive work through the air. However he was strong and decisive in the run game and showed poise in the Bulldogs’ fourth quarter comeback against Louisville in 2017. Despite a small sample of games, it is clear that Thompson fits the ‘thorterback’ (dual threat) mold that Coach Mendenhall wants under center. Furthermore, the previous two starting quarterbacks for Virginia have been transfer players with two seasons of eligibility remaining upon enrollment (Kurt Benkert, Bryce Perkins).
While it is unclear who may win the starting job, a look at the past offensive tendencies of the Cavaliers may shed some light on how the offense might operate depending on who is under center next season. Virginia’s designed pass-to-run split has been relatively stable the last four seasons, with the exception of 2018, Perkins’ first year in the system.
Year
Primary Quarterback
Designed Pass Percentage
Designed Rush Percentage
Percent of Designed Rushes by QB
2016
Kurt Benkert
63%
37%
4%
2017
Kurt Benkert
63%
37%
4%
2018
Bryce Perkins
54%
46%
31%
2019
Bryce Perkins
66%
34%
38%
(Designed passes include plays in which the quarterback scrambles; spikes and kneels are excluded from this dataset)
In 2016-17, the offense was led by Kurt Benkert, a traditional pocket passer. During Perkins’ first year in the offense, there was a significant shift in playcalling tendencies as the rate of designed runs was nearly 10% higher than the previous season.
The quarterback change was partly responsible for the drastic shift in run rate, as the percentage of designed runs by the quarterback position increased from 4% to 31% when Perkins took the offensive reins. However, in Perkins’ second year, there was a reversion back to the designed pass and run tendencies from two seasons prior, while the rate of designed rushes by the QB continued to increase.
This reversion to a higher passing rate was likely due to an increased understanding of the playbook and strengthened connection with the core group of receivers present on the roster both years (Hasise Dubois, Joe Reed, Terrell Jana). Meanwhile the increase in the QB designed-rush ratio was the product of the desire to keep the ball in the hands of the best player on the field.
Extending this trend to the current quarterback situation, several possibilities reveal themselves. In the event that Armstrong wins the job, the designed pass and run ratios likely remain around 65/35, given his experience in the offensive system and the return of key offensive contributors from 2019 (Terrell Jana, Wayne Taulapapa, and the entire offensive line).
However, the rate of designed runs by the quarterback will likely decrease, as Armstrong has not proven himself to be the difference-maker on the ground that Perkins was. In the event that Thompson wins the job, there may be a shift back to a more run-heavy approach, similar to 2018.
Thompson will not have much time to absorb the playbook and gel with the rest of the offense, especially given the shortened offseason. Therefore you may see a game plan centered more around the ground game.Thompson has shown capability on the ground, which could signal a high rate of designed quarterback runs. No matter the outcome, it is sure to be a highly-contested battle for quarterback in a college football season marked by uncertainty.
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) have a discussion about the history of the Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Aaron brings us behind the curtain to talk about what inspired him to start looking into football stats on a deeper level (1:28), what the process was to conceptualize DVOA and what kind of iterations it went through before he arrived at the final construction (3:37), what some of the key decision were that helped build DVOA and decisions that would’ve changed the story that DVOA has told over time (12:46), how the stat has changed over time (20:09), how it works in its present form (24:08), some of its strengths and weaknesses (29:41), and where he sees it going in the future (34:07).
Earlier this month Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis posted an interesting finding concerning Giants quarterback Daniel Jones’ performance based on dropback type to Twitter. The crux of the finding was that Jones performed at an above-average rate when using only a 0/1-Step Drop and generally having fewer reads on a given play. But with longer drops and more time to process and read the field, Jones’ performance significantly faltered.
This finding led to us wondering if this was a unique instance of a rookie struggling with more reads, or if there is a relationship between experience and dropback types.
If a relationship were to exist, the theory would be that experience impacts longer dropbacks more than shorter ones. A 0/1-Step Drop with limited reads on the play should be a similar throw for a rookie or a seasoned veteran, while a 5-Step Drop would involve more processing and reads and therefore have a stronger relationship to experience.
Based on exploratory analysis, there is evidence of this theory being true among quarterbacks within their first four seasons.
In the above graphic, experience shows a weak relationship with EPA/Att on 0/1-Step Drops, with a correlation of 0.13. This follows the theory that these throws are similar for most quarterbacks and generally don’t require much experience for high-level performance. One of the more extreme outliers within our dataset is Josh Rosen’s rookie season of -0.30 EPA/Att, which is shown as the dot furthest towards the bottom left of the graphic.
On 3-Step Drops, we see a slightly stronger relationship between experience and EPA/Att, with a correlation of 0.31. The above graphic also shows a noticeable trend of rookies quarterbacks having a much wider variance in their performance on these throws. The range for rookie quarterbacks spans from Ryan Finley’s -0.48 EPA/Att to Lamar Jackson’s +0.47 EPA/Att.
5-Step Drops are where experience matters the most for quarterback performance, with a correlation of 0.46. There is also the noticeable trend of every quarterback in years three and four having a positive EPA/Att on these throws, while only a single rookie quarterback had a positive EPA/Att. Gardner Minshew, with his +0.46 EPA/Att, was that sole rookie quarterback, though, Kyler Murray would have joined him had he met the minimum attempts threshold, with an EPA/Att of +0.17.
This analysis shows a trend of experience being a larger factor in quarterback performance on longer dropbacks. This supports the theory that these throws generally require more reads, which players can improve upon with more playing time. However, experience and more playing time does not show a relationship with quick drops, suggesting that players are unable to improve significantly on these throws over time.
These findings bode well for Jones, the subject of the original Twitter thread, who performed well on 0/1-Step Drops and struggled on longer dropbacks. Over the next few years, experience should help his performance more on 3-Step and 5-Step drops. All of this analysis comes with an important caveat of smaller sample sizes, but it has provided interesting insight and something for SIS to monitor moving forward.
The group discusses some background on the research (0:55), gives specifics on exactly what was examined (1:55), points out interesting results from the study (5:22), examines how this research compares to that done at Football Outsiders (6:33), looks at differences in types of outdoor weather effects (8:06), and lists the key takeaways from the article (11:00).
Key takeaway: Weather has some predictable impacts, but maybe not at the scale that critics of dome-heavy quarterbacks think.
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How much do weather conditions affect quarterback play?
This has been a hot topic following a tweet from the NFL’s Michael Lopez that pointed out that the list of the most effective quarterbacks over the last few seasons predominantly featured players whose home stadium was indoors. That prompted follow-ups from a few others, as well as Lopez himself.
We wanted to add a point or two to the conversation, starting with a blunt instrument and moving to a more nuanced approach. Think of it as “Weather Effects Two Ways.”
Does the Roof Make You On Fire?
We’ll start with just the impact of playing indoors versus outdoors.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that games played indoors have better passing numbers. The effect is quite small, though. Since the start of 2015, passes thrown indoors have been completed 2.6 percentage points more often. For what it’s worth, the numbers are the same when looking at only road teams (reducing sampling bias) or only late-season games (when playing outdoors is most likely to be a concern).
You might not notice the effect at a game level, but what about at a season level?
We took every pass over the last five seasons and split it on three dimensions: Indoor/Outdoor, Throw Depth, and whether the throw was outside the numbers.
Again, only road teams were used to prevent oversampling from teams whose home stadium is indoors. Taking the average completion percentage of each group (and including some smoothing from similar throws), we can find an expected completion percentage by throw distance, both indoors and outdoors.
Using these indoor and outdoor expected completion percentages, we took each quarterback season with at least 400 attempts and pretended they played for every other team that season (at least in terms of their proportion of indoor games versus outdoor games).
In 2019, for example, every quarterback’s best performance would have come on the Falcons (81% of games indoors), and their worst performance would have come with either the Jets, Ravens, or Bengals (none of whom had an indoor game in 2019; the specific team would depend on what kinds of throws the quarterback made).
Here’s a visual of what those results look like.
What do we learn from this?
If you switched between the most-indoor and most-outdoor schedules in any given season, quarterbacks’ completion percentages would change by at most two percentage points up or down
Quarterbacks who tend to play indoors (hello NFC South) are operating at the high end of their range of outcomes
This is not the best way to think about the effect of weather. Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Ryan Tannehill haven’t exactly played in adverse weather conditions, but they have played a very high percentage of their games outdoors.
Let’s take things in a different direction, then, and focus on the actual weather conditions, not just whether the quarterback got his daily dose of Vitamin D.
How Much Does Weather Really Matter?
Weather effects on a player’s performance are talked about quite a bit, but generally in an anecdotal way with no underlying data. How many times do you hear about a quarterback prospect needing a strong arm to play in the northeast during every draft process?
Similarly to indoor/outdoor effects on QB play, weather definitely plays a role, albeit a relatively small one.
To determine this we took pass attempts from road teams playing outdoors over the past four seasons and modeled a relationship between completions and throw depth, whether the throw was outside the numbers, apparent temperature, and whether there was significant precipitation present.
Apparent temperature accounts for wind speed, humidity, and air temperature. Significant precipitation is defined as any time the precipitation intensity was greater than or equal to 0.25 mm/hr (this accounts for the top 25% of throws with any level of precipitation). These two weather effects were found to be statistically significant within our model over the past four seasons.
This weather-adjusted expected completion model was then compared to a simple model that only accounts for throw depth and whether the throw was outside the numbers. By comparing the two models, we can determine how much weather plays a role in the passing game and which quarterbacks were most affected.
2019 QBs Most Negatively Impacted by Weather (min 200 Attempts)
Player
Expected Comp%
Weather Adjusted Expected Comp%
Difference
Sam Darnold
64.6%
63.3%
-1.3%
Patrick Mahomes
64.9%
63.9%
-1.0%
Tom Brady
66.0%
65.2%
-0.8%
Aaron Rodgers
64.0%
63.2%
-0.7%
Russell Wilson
63.1%
62.4%
-0.7%
2019 QBs Most Positively Impacted by Weather (min 200 Attempts)
Player
Expected Comp%
Weather Adjusted Expected Comp%
Difference
Matt Ryan
65.2%
66.9%
1.7%
Jacoby Brissett
65.5%
67.1%
1.6%
Matthew Stafford
61.2%
62.6%
1.4%
Drew Brees
67.6%
68.8%
1.2%
Kyler Murray
66.3%
67.5%
1.2%
Unsurprisingly, a quarterback who played the majority of his games in the northeast, Sam Darnold, topped the list of players most affected by weather conditions. On the other side of things, we see a list of quarterbacks who played most of their games indoors as the most positively affected by weather conditions. However, the overall effect from weather is fairly small either way.
The Big Picture
Regardless of the method used, we see that having great or terrible weather over the course of a season can modulate a quarterback’s completion percentage by one or two percentage points. Michael Lopez found something similar, but also noted that the indoor/outdoor effect is larger than that of home field advantage, which has some interesting ramifications on things like point spreads.
Given these results, it seems a player’s typical weather conditions aren’t likely to be a big deal from season to season. The effect can of course accumulate, as in the case of players like Drew Brees, who has spent his entire career in favorable weather between San Diego and New Orleans. Drop his completion percentage by one point over his career, keeping the same yardage per completion, and he loses just under 1,000 passing yards over his career. For guys like that it only matters in the context of all-time records and Hall of Fame discussions, and even then only as a minor point in a larger discussion.
The key point to keep in mind is that there are lots of variables that affect a player’s statistics beyond his talent, and we need to understand the scale and direction of those effects when trying to evaluate players. Weather has some predictable impacts, but maybe not at the scale that critics of dome-heavy quarterbacks think.
The only athlete to ever be taken top ten in both the MLB and NFL Drafts, Kyler Murray completed an improbable saga when he shunned the bright lights of Double-A baseball to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. While we’ll never know what he may have been in the Big Leagues, Murray’s doing just fine in football. He added Offensive Rookie of the Year to his hardware collection and was one of the few bright spots for a 5-win Cardinals team in 2019.
But, Arizona isn’t rebuilding so much as they are rebranding. Team leadership made a conscious decision to blaze a trail when they hired Kliff Kingsbury, and again when they (wisely) shed 2018 first-rounder Josh Rosen to take Murray with the first overall pick.
The NFL’s first official Air Raid team experienced some growing pains in their first year, but that was to be expected when the two most important figures in the organization were copy-and-pasted from the wide open plains of the Big 12.
The good news is that Murray had one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory. In fact, it was probably the best since Dak Prescott’s 2016 Rookie of the Year campaign.
Although Murray is hoping to avoid the second year slump that fellow Sooner alum Baker Mayfield experienced, he flashed high-level quarterbacking at times as a rookie and gave Cardinals faithful a lot to be optimistic about.
Murray was one of the better quick-game quarterbacks last year thanks to his quick footwork, fast release, ability to access different arm slots, and exceptional arm talent.
While his ranks of eleventh and twelfth in success rate (57%) and EPA/Attempt (0.15) were respectable, his differential in Predicted Completion Percentage from his actual completion percentage (pComp+/-) of 6.1% on true quick-game drops (i.e. no RPOs, no screens) was elite, ranking fifth in the NFL among qualifying passers (minimum 50 attempts). He was effective in safeguarding the ball in these concepts, ranking eleventh in turnover-worthy throw rate (1.8%).
The same traits that made him successful in the quick game helped him pilot the screen-happiest team in the NFL (8% of all plays in 2019) to the fourth-best success rate (52%) on screens.
The Cardinals would presumably like to do more than dink and dunk down the field in 2020, though. Murray ranked seventh in on-target rate on deep passes (58%) among 21 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts thrown at least 20 yards down the field.
However, in order for them to maximize Murray’s deep ball prowess, the protection will need to hold up better than it did in 2019. Starting tackles D.J. Humphries (4.3%) and Justin Murray (5.2%) ranked 55th and 66th in blown block rate in pass protection out of 76 offensive tackles with at least 200 pass sets in 2019. And J.R. Sweezy (3.0%, 54 of 68) wasn’t much better among guards.
For as good as Murray was as a rookie, the Cardinals didn’t have a lot of touchdowns to show for it. In fact, they were dismal in the red zone last year.
Regardless of whether you examined their efficiency with the traditional measuring stick (48% TD rate, 28th in NFL), through an Expected Points lens (-3.6 EPA/100 Plays, 18th in NFL), or by an eye test which revealed that they ran goal line fades at a disturbingly high rate (18%, 4th in NFL), it’s clear that the red zone was a no-fly zone for the Cardinals in 2019.
Air Raid offenses are often maligned for being ineffective inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, and while that was certainly the case this past year, there is reason for optimism moving forward.
Murray suffered the sixth-largest dip in average Passing Points Earned/100 Snaps from the rest of the field to the red zone, a dip of -18.6/100 Snaps. That alone should suggest that some positive regression is coming, as there is research that suggests that quarterback red zone performance is unstable.
The Cardinals’ diminutive signal caller is not without his flaws, however. One opportunity for growth is his touch on layered throws placed over a second level defender and under a safety. He ranked 22nd of 31 qualifying players (minimum 50 attempts) in pComp+/- on over-under balls (-3.9%) and 24th among that same group in on-target rate (66%).
He would also benefit greatly from developing the ability to navigate the pocket upwards and outwards rather than defaulting the wrong way. His average sack depth (-6.4 yards) was about average (-6.6), but he took a loss of 10 yards or worse on 29% of his sacks, good for the third-worst rate among qualifying quarterbacks (min. 20 sacks) and far worse than the average of 17%.
Pressure also turned into sacks at an abnormally high rate for him. 30% of all his pressures resulted in a sack, the fifth-worst rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks and 1.5 times the league average of 20%.
As a rookie, Murray continued to grow as a dropback passer in a league with plenty of detractors who doubted his ability to succeed in structure. His physical gifts and point-and-shoot passing acumen were evident at Oklahoma. Now, he is honing his anticipation and showing the requisite mental processing to excel in quick-game at the NFL, two promising signs for his development. If this trend continues, Murray and the Cardinals will have the league on notice in no time.
