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  • Zach Ertz: Hoping for a bounceback

    By PATRICK ROWLEY

    Last week, Zach Ertz was held below 40 yards for just the fourth time this season but the second consecutive week. Before these two games (in which he managed to pull in just 8 of his 15 targets), Ertz was on pace to finish with 124 receptions, which would have put him at fifth-most in a season all-time. He is now on pace for 115, which would still put him in the top 20 for receptions in a season and break Jason Witten’s single-season record for receptions by a tight end (110).

    Over the last two seasons, Ertz has seen an extra half-target per game with Nick Foles under center (9.2) than Carson Wentz (8.7), but these are, on average, shorter throws.

    Passes to Zach Ertz – Last 2 Seasons
    Foles Wentz
    Yards per target 5.7 8
    Yards per reception 8.2 11
    Yards per game 52.2 70
    1st down pct 34% 65%

    Perhaps the biggest difference in his production between quarterbacks can be attributed to plays in the red zone. Ertz has proven to be an excellent red zone target with his size and hands, assets that led him to ranking 15th in red zone targets last season (17) and tied for fifth this season (23).

    With Foles at quarterback, Ertz’s red zone targets per game of 1.8 is a half-target per game higher than with Wentz (1.3), but he is not converting them to receptions, let alone touchdowns. Forty-five percent of the time Wentz has targeted Ertz in the red zone the last two seasons (13-out-of-29) it has resulted in a touchdown, compared to just nine percent with Foles (1-of-11).

    At first glance, the difference in completion percentage is eye popping (69 percent in the red zone for Wentz, 36 percent for Foles), but a closer look at on-target pass percentage indicates the onus for this difference could be more on Ertz than Foles. In red zone situations Foles has a 73 percent on-target pass percentage, reasonably close to Wentz’s 82 percent.

    The Rams also provided a difficult matchup last week, as they have allowed the third-lowest QB rating against when opposing QBs target tight ends (70). This week, the Eagles will face a Texans team that is on the other end of the spectrum, allowing a rating of 114 in the same situation (26th in the league). This game will also be at home for the Eagles where Ertz’s receiver rating is 110 (compared to 81 on the road). If you believe in Ertz’s ability to catch passes, there’s a good opportunity for a bounce-back here.

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster may have met his match in Stephon Gilmore

    RESEARCH BY PATRICK ROWLEY

    The Patriots often assign their No. 2 cornerback and a safety to cover the other team’s top receiver, which means top cornerback Stephon Gilmore goes 1-on-1 with the other team’s No. 2 receiver.

    So if healthy, we would expect Gilmore to defend JuJu Smith-Schuster this weekend when the Patriots face the Steelers.

    Gilmore has been a workhorse this season, with 515 coverage snaps (fourth among cornerbacks) and 72 times targeted (12th-most). But he’s allowed only 5.4 yards per attempt, eighth-lowest out of just over 100 qualifiers. His deserved-catch percentage is 62 percent, second-lowest among that same group (deserved-catch percentage is essentially completion percentage on catchable passes, with drops counted as catches). His 14 passes defensed are the most in the NFL and more than he had in the last two seasons combined.

    In other words, he does a great job at denying plays. A matchup between the two would be a great battle. Smith-Schuster is averaging seven catches per game. Gilmore is allowing just over two per game.

  • Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper face challenge with Colts’ zone

    By PATRICK ROWLEY

    The Cowboys trading for Amari Cooper has turned their season around. Following their Week 8 bye Dallas was looking up at both the Redskins (5-2) and Eagles (4-4) in the standings. Since acquiring Amari Cooper, the Cowboys have gone 5-1 and are currently on a five game win streak, the longest current streak in the NFL.

    Amari Cooper has transformed the offense since his arrival and last game he had his most impressive showing with a 217-yard and three touchdown performance in an overtime win against the Eagles. Sunday could pose a challenge for Cooper and the Cowboys, as the Colts come in playing a zone defense the highest rate in the league (72 percent). The Colts have been middle of the pack in their zone defense. They have allowed 7.7 yards per attempt (13th), a rating against of 94 (14th), but have allowed just one more touchdown (9) than interceptions (8).

    Much of Cooper’s impact this season has been against a man defense. Since Cooper’s first game with Dallas in week nine he ranks first against man defenses in yards (432), yards after the catch (209), touchdowns (6) and has put up a 139 receiver rating.

    Having Cooper as a weapon against man defenses has improved the entire offense, as Prescott’s game has been elevated to new heights against man defenses, including a 48-point jump in IQR.

    Comp % Y/A TD INT IQR
    Pre Amari 52% 6.2 3 3 71
    With Amari 61% 8.8 8 1 119

    Despite this massive jump in production against man defense, Prescott has not had nearly as much success against a zone defense and his IQR has dropped from 100 to 84 with Cooper on the roster. Though he has an 80 percent completion percentage versus zones, it’s almost entirely short-pass based. He has no touchdowns and two interceptions on 91 attempts

    It will be interesting to see if the Colts zone-heavy defensive scheme will be the answer to finally stopping Prescott and Cooper this weekend.

  • Who have been the best pass defenders in 2018?

    Who are the top players at defending against the pass in 2018? Let’s look at that specifically through pass coverage (rather than the pass rush) We will use the player’s ranking in our Total Points stat as the basis for judgment.

    What is Total Points? Total Points takes the Expected Points stat and distributes the value gained or lost on a play to the different players involved based on their impact on the play. An article “Introducing Total Points” published on Football Outsiders explains this in more detail. You can read the article in full here. As it notes:

    Unsurprisingly, Total Points rewards ball-hawking defensive backs for defensing passes and forcing interceptions. Beyond that, though, the sure tacklers and shutdown defenders finally get their due statistically.

    Most Points Added on Pass Coverage
    Eddie Jackson Bears S 38.5
    Darron Lee Jets LB 28.3
    Damontae Kazee Falcons S 28.3
    Matt Milano Bills LB 23

    The leader here is a leader by a large margin, Bears safety Eddie Jackson. There’s an intuitive reason for this. Jackson has five interceptions, two of which he’s returned for touchdowns. He’s also returned a fumble recovery for a touchdown. But there’s a little more to it than that.

    Opposing quarterbacks are 11-of-33 when throwing at Jackson. The 33 percent completion percentage is tied for the lowest in the NFL with Adrian Phillips of the Chargers. The quarterback rating against Jackson is 26.1, second-lowest in the NFL. He’s deserving of the top spot in more ways than one.

    Jackson’s Bears rank No. 1 when looking at the stat from a team perspective. Their players have saved 68.6 points in pass coverage, way ahead of the second-place Bills (49.6). The Redskins (34.0), Vikings (19.4) and Jaguars (13.1) round out the top five.

    Falcons safety Damontae Kazee ranks tied for second among individuals, largely because of his six interceptions, though unlike Jackson, Kazee hasn’t scored on one. He’s tied with currently suspended Jets linebacker Darron Lee, who has three interceptions, including one for a score. Lee allowed a play with a positive expected result 40 percent of the time, which ranked in the top 10 percent of all players with at least 30 targets against them

    Among cornerbacks, Desmond King of the Chargers ranks first (18.9 points added). King has three interceptions, one for a touchdown. One thing that helps hold his value high is that he’s allowed only one touchdown pass on 51 targets. King has limited damage. He’s allowed only two completions on passes at least 15 yards downfield.

    On the other end of the list is Falcons defensive back Robert Alford, who ranks last in Points Saved (-50.4) by a wide margin. He’s allowed 788 yards on passes against him, the most in the NFL and 12.1 yards per attempt, which ranks first among those with at least 30 targets against. His seven touchdowns allowed is one shy of the NFL lead. The Falcons defense ranks last in this stat. Alford has been benched for this week.

  • Which NFL receivers are best at catching long passes?

    By MARK SIMON
    Yesterday, we looked at which quarterbacks are best and most prolific when it comes to throwing deep passes. Today, let’s look at which receivers are the best at catching them.

    Note that for our purposes, unless otherwise noted, we’re referring to passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    Who is targeted on them most often?
    Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is one of the NFL’s best-known deep targets, so it’s not surprising that he’s No. 1 here with 31 deep ball targets. He’s also tops in receptions with 14. Antonio Brown ranks second with 28 targets, but had only nine deep receptions. Brandin Cooks of the Rams ranks second in receptions with 11. He led the NFL with 16 in 2017. DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, and Tyler Lockett each have 10 receptions.

    Most Targets – Passes At Least 20 Yards Downfield (Rec in Parentheses)
    Tyreek Hill Chiefs 31 (14)
    Antonio Brown Steelers 28 (9)
    John Brown Ravens 26 (7)
    Julio Jones Falcons 26 (8)
    Davante Adams Packers 25 (8)
    Most Receptions – Passes At Least 20 Yards Downfield (Att in Parentheses)
    Tyreek Hill Chiefs 14 (31)
    Brandin Cooks Rams 11 (23)
    DeAndre Hopkins Texans 10 (21)
    Adam Thielen Vikings 10 (17)
    Tyler Lockett Seahawks 10 (12)

    Who is most efficient in catching deep balls?
    Lockett has a number that will amaze you. He ranks tied for 32nd with 12 deep targets, but has 10 receptions, for a completion percentage of 83 percent. That’s remarkable given that the average throw at least 20 yards downfield has a 37 percent completion percentage, meaning an average player would catch 4.4 deep throws out of 12. Lockett’s success is more than double that. last season, he caught 5-of-17 throws of that length. In 2016, he snagged 8-of-14. Back to 2018, the next-best players percentage wise, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Tyler Boyd, are 7-of-11 (64 percent).

    Also of note on Lockett. He’s second in the NFL in touchdown receptions on long passes. His six are one fewer than Antonio Brown.

    Hill’s 14-of-31 is good for 45 percent, which puts him above average. The other four players with at least 25 targets have a below-NFL average completion percentage: Antonio Brown (32 percent), Julio Jones (31 percent), John Brown (27 percent) and Davante Adams (32 percent).

    Who is most and least surehanded?
    Three players have at least 10 receptions on deep throws without a drop: Cooks (11), Thielen (10) and Lockett (10). In contrast, John Brown has seven receptions, but could easily have more. He leads the NFL with four drops on deep passes.

    So who turns out to have performed best overall?
    For this question, we’re going to use Expected Points Added (EPA). That’s the value that the receiver’s targets accumulated in terms of changing the team’s scoring expectation.

    The dozen passes targeting Lockett added 31.4 points to the Seahawks’ expected point totals on those throws. That’s the highest EPA for any player in the NFL this season. Hill ranks second as his many targets have led to enough receptions that the expected points total for the Chiefs has increased by 24.5 points. That’s a smidge better than Mike Evans.

    So, even though his sample is small, Lockett has been the best at churning out receptions on long passes this season. And as we showed yesterday, his teammate Russell Wilson tops the quarterbacks list.

    Most Expected Points Added – Passes At Least 20 Yards Downfield
    Targets
    Tyler Lockett Seawhawks 31.4 12
    Tyreek Hill Chiefs 24.5 31
    Mike Evans Buccaneers 24.4 19
    JuJu Smith-Schuster Steelers 24.1 13
    Tyrell Williams Chargers 19.1 12
    Adam Thielen Vikings 18.9 17

     

  • Stat of the Week: A Statistical View of the College Football Playoff Field

    The College Football Playoff field is set: the semifinal games on December 29 will feature No. 1 Alabama against No. 4 Oklahoma, and No. 2 Clemson against No. 3 Notre Dame.

    All four teams have had interesting storylines at quarterback, while also dominating in other facets of the game. Using Sports Info Solutions’ advanced metrics and charting data, let’s take a brief look at each team’s success this season.

    No. 1 Alabama

    Tua Tagovailoa burst onto the scene in last year’s National Championship when he replaced Jalen Hurts and led the Crimson Tide over Georgia. Retaining the starting job this year, Tua has not disappointed. He ranks second in the nation in our Independent Quarterback Rating* (IQR) metric, behind the quarterback Alabama will face in the semifinal: Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray.

    Yet it was Hurts who played the hero in last weekend’s SEC championship victory after replacing an injured Tagovailoa. It’s worth noting that Hurts has done well himself this season, completing 50 of 67 passes and posting a 139.6 IQR—right behind Tagovailoa when considering quarterbacks who have attempted 50 or more passes in 2018.

    Best IQR Among QB with 50+ Attempts
    Player School IQR
    Kyler Murray Oklahoma 147.9
    Tua Tagovailoa Alabama 143.1
    Jalen Hurts Alabama 139.6
    Jake Fromm Georgia 134.2
    Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 131.2

    Alabama has been arguably the best team at throwing the ball deep. On 56 throws of 20-plus yards, they have completed 35 of them and scored 16 touchdowns. On a per-attempt basis, those marks are the best in college football.

    The talented Jerry Jeudy has been the preferred target at wide receiver. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, he ranks third with 12.3 yards per target and fifth with a 134.9 Receiver Rating (which is traditional passer rating on targets).

    No. 2 Clemson

    Trevor Lawrence has excelled since taking over for Kelly Bryant at quarterback. The true freshman has picked apart man coverages; his 137.8 IQR in such situations ranks fourth behind Tagovailoa, Fromm, and Murray.

    Beyond Lawrence, Clemson dominates the running game on both sides of the ball. The defense has allowed 2.1 yards per rush attempt (YPA), the best mark in the nation. With draft prospects Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence on the interior of the defensive line, the Tigers are a force up the middle. Clemson has surrendered only 1.9 yards per attempt on inside runs. Every other FBS team has allowed at least 3 YPA on such plays.

    Offensively, Travis Etienne picks up the bulk of the carries and has been one of the best rushers on a per-attempt basis, averaging 8.3 YPA. Along with Memphis’ Darrell Henderson and Florida Atlantic’s Devin Singletary, Etienne is one of three players with more than 20 rushing touchdowns on the season.

    No. 3 Notre Dame

    Like Alabama and Clemson, a change at quarterback was a major storyline for the Fighting Irish. Through Week 3, Brandon Wimbush registered just a 54.0 IQR, which ranked 117th out of the 122 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts to that point.

    Since taking over the starting job, Ian Book’s 107.2 IQR ranks among the top 30 nationally. Notre Dame gained accuracy in the passing game with the transition, with Book’s 70 percent completion rate signifying a considerable improvement over Wimbush’s 53 percent rate.

    Pass defense has been similarly important. The Irish pass rush leads the country in quarterback hurries, just ahead of college football’s other contenders. Defensive end Julian Okwara ranks among the top ten nationally with 39 hurries, while tackle Jerry Tillery and end Khalid Kareem have contributed 30 and 26, respectively.

    Most QB Hurries
    School Hurries
    Notre Dame 187
    Alabama 186
    Clemson 175
    Ohio State 172

    No. 4 Oklahoma

    Leading the nation with a 147.9 IQR, Kyler Murray has been outstanding as the successor to Baker Mayfield. Murray has been particularly dynamic outside of the pocket; among signal callers with at least 25 attempts in those situations, his 146.3 IQR, 16 percent touchdown rate, and 10.4 yards per attempt all lead the country. He can also push the ball downfield with accuracy, ranking third in on-target percentage on throws of 20 or more yards.

    Murray’s primary targets are Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb, who rank first and second, respectively, in yards per target (among receivers with at least 75 targets on the season).

    Despite losing running back Rodney Anderson to a season-ending injury, Oklahoma’s ground game has remained solid with Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks. As a team, the Sooners are among the best at breaking tackles (ranking second with a total of 143) and rushing to the outside (ranking second with an average of 8.1 YPA).

    * Independent Quarterback Rating is Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric. It builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by accounting for results that are outside of the quarterback’s control – dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. – to form a better benchmark of QB value.

  • Which quarterbacks have had the most success with long throws in 2018?

    For an updated version of this article, which includes all of 2018, click here

    by MARK SIMON

    A quarterback throwing the deep ball is one of the most exciting things you’ll see in a football game. It leads to big plays, sometimes game-changing moments and puts a receiver’s athleticism on display.

    So let’s dig into a few of the numbers related to long passes this season. For our purposes, unless otherwise noted, we’re referring to passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    Who throws them most often?
    The NFL leader in deep pass attempts this season is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes with 62, just ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Mitchell Trubisky ranks fourth despite having missed two games. He could have been atop the list had he played every game this season.

    Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson led the NFL with 88 deep pass attempts last season. More on him in a moment.

    Most Deep Passes Attempted in 2018
    Patrick Mahomes 62
    Aaron Rodgers 61
    Ben Roethlisberger 58
    Mitchell Trubisky 54
    Matt Ryan 49
    Russell Wilson 47
    Kirk Cousins 47

    Who throws them most accurately?
    An easy explanation for Saints quarterback Drew Brees’ success this season is his success on deep balls. He’s 22-of-37 on them, a 60 percent completion percentage that easily ranks best in the NFL. Two other quarterbacks are at 50 percent or higher — Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buccaneers (52 percent) and Jared Goff of the Rams (50 percent).

    If we change the criteria to on-target percentage, rather than completion percentage, Goff takes the lead. He’s thrown 31 of his 46 deep passes on target (67 percent).

    The contrasts to Brees and Goff are Jets rookie Sam Darnold and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

    Darnold is 6-of-36 on his deep throws (17 percent, the lowest completion percentage in the league), though that’s not completely his fault. His on-target percentage is 47 percent (17-of-36). Darnold’s backup Josh McCown is actually worse, going 1-of-15 on his deep throws. He was a much more respectable 20-of-46 (43 percent) completing those passes last season.

    Prescott has a 33 percent completion percentage, but an NFL-low 40 percent on-target percentage (12-of-30).

    The NFL averages on deep throws this season are a 37 percent completion percentage and a 52 percent on-target percentage.

    Highest Completion Percentage on Deep Passes – Minimum 25 Attempts
    Attempts
    Drew Brees 59.5% 37
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 51.7% 29
    Jared Goff 50.0% 46
    Russell Wilson 48.9% 47
    Derek Carr 44.2% 43
    Philip Rivers 43.9% 41
    Eli Manning 43.5% 46
    Patrick Mahomes 43.5% 62

    Who is hitting on the deepest deep balls?
    The thin air in Denver is allowing Case Keenum’s balls to carry a bit. He’s average 31.7 air yards on his long pass completions, the highest average in the NFL. He’s about a half-yard better than Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.

    Who has had the biggest payoff the most often?
    Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes on deep throws, one more than Wilson and Drew Brees.

    Brees has yet to throw an interception on one of these pass attempts. Roethlisberger has two. Wilson has one.

    On the opposite side of the ledger, Deshaun Watson leads the NFL with five interceptions on those passes. Six quarterbacks have four, including Mahomes.

    In all, quarterbacks have 150 touchdown passes and 89 interceptions on these passes, which averages to 4.7 and 2.8 per team respectively.

    Who is the best overall?
    It would be easy to say that Brees is the top guy, given his completion percentage and his touchdown success on these passes, and if you did, that would be completely fair.

    However, our Total Points system makes a different choice. It goes with Wilson, who ranked seventh last season (Alex Smith and Tom Brady were 1-2).

    To excerpt from Alex Vigderman’s Football Outsiders article on a quarterback’s Passing Points Earned.

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    Wilson’s volume of success, his rate of success, and the outcomes themselves have combined to put him in the No. 1 spot in terms of which quarterbacks are best at one of the most exciting plays in the game.

    For those wondering about Rodgers, his value gain comes in the drops by his receivers, which are being treated as completed passes in this system. With those, and his performance on 30-yard or longer throws, he vaults ahead of Brees by a hair.

     

    NFL Leaders – Points Earned on Deep Passes
    Pts Comp-Att, TD, INT
    1. Russell Wilson 29.5 23-of-47, 9 TD, 1 INT
    2. Aaron Rodgers 25.8 22-of-61, 6 TD, 0 INT
    3. Drew Brees 23.5 22-of-37, 9 TD, 0 INT
    4. Patrick Mahomes 23.4 27-of-62, 8 TD, 4 INT
    5. Philip Rivers 22.5 18-of-41, 7 TD, 1 INT

     

  • Stat of the Week: A look at NFL and NBA Power Ratings

    With the baseball postseason over, it’s time to immerse ourselves in the NFL and NBA. If you haven’t paid close attention to this point, or are just curious for some interesting analysis, the Bill James Online Power Ratings are here to help.

    NFL

    Bill James Online Power Ratings
    Team
    1. Saints 111.7
    2. Chiefs 110.9
    3. Rams 110.2
    4. Steelers 109.5
    5. Ravens 108.5

    The top NFL team by the power ratings is the New Orleans Saints, who edge out the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens round out the Top 5 overall. The Power Ratings are intended to show how many points above (or below) average that a team is to that point in the season. The NFL Power Ratings use 100 as a baseline, so the Saints would be 11.7 points better than the average team.

    The 8-1 Saints have eight straight wins, including two wins over Top-5 teams. They’ve beaten the Ravens on the road and the Rams at home. They’ll face the struggling defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday. Drew Brees is playing like an MVP with 21 touchdown passes and only one interception.

    The Chiefs have looked ultra-impressive thanks largely to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, whose first season as a starter has been a record-setting one. His 31 touchdown passes are a Chiefs single-season record.

    Rams running back Todd Gurley may have something to say about Brees’ and Mahomes’ MVP candidacies. He leads the NFL with 988 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and 17 touchdowns overall. Gurley has a chance to be the first player to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored in consecutive seasons since Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks in 2004 and 2005.

    NBA

    Bill James Online Power Ratings
    Team
    1. Bucks 214.9
    2. Trail Blazers 209.8
    3. Warriors 207.8
    4. Clippers 206.9
    5. Raptors 206.8

    (Note that the NBA uses 200 as a baseline. The Bucks are 14.9 points better than the average team).

    The early surprise in the NBA’s Power Ratings (which are based entirely on this season’s performance) is that there are two teams ahead of the Golden State Warriors — the Milwaukee Bucks are No. 1 and the Portland Trail Blazers are No. 2.

    Both the Bucks and Trail Blazers are 10-3. The Bucks have shown their mettle by beating the Raptors (No. 5 in our rankings) by 15 and the Warriors by 23, though they’ve lost to both the Clippers (No. 4 in our rankings) and the Trail Blazers. The addition of Brook Lopez has boosted a Bucks team that leads the NBA in three-pointers made and is averaging 121.6 points per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25 points and 13 rebounds to lead the way for them.

    Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and the Trail Blazers are trying to bounce back from a disappointing finish to last season when they got swept by the Pelicans in the first round of the playoffs. They’ve won three straight games against prominent teams — the Bucks, Clippers and Celtics– to wrap up a six-game homestand.

    Up next is six straight on the road, including back-to-back games to close the trip against the Bucks and Warriors. Their next home game is against the Clippers on Nov. 25.

    The power ratings will be worth checking again at that point to see whether the Trail Blazers have the staying power to remain among the league’s top teams.

    If you want to keep up with the Power Ratings, you can follow them with a subscription to Bill James Online.

  • The most interesting numbers from the NFL Draft

    The most interesting numbers from the NFL Draft

    By KEEGAN ABDOO
    It was a fascinating and exciting NFL Draft, with twists, turns and plenty of interesting selections.

    What numbers were most telling to us about some of the top players selected?

    On Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield
    Baker Mayfield ranked first with a Passing Success Rate of 61% (out of 113 FBS Quarterbacks with 200+ attempts), which is 4.7% better than second and a margin that represents the gap between 2nd and 14th best.

    Mayfield also excelled when plays broke down. He had an 82 percent on-target percentage on 44 throws in those instances.

    On New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley
    There were only eight RBs with at least 100 carries and 50 receptions in 2017. Among them, Barkley’s 7.0 yards/touch, 5.9 yards/attempt and 11.7 yards/reception each ranked first.

    On Denver Broncos Pass Rusher Bradley Chubb
    Bradley Chubb’s 111 pressures were the most in FBS over the last two seasons and 14 more than the second best total, which represents the gap between #2-#10.

    On Browns CB Denzel Ward
    Denzel Ward’s 3.9 Yards Allowed per Target were the best in the nation among CBs with at least 40 targets.

    He was even better in Man Coverage, where he allowed 2.8 Yards Per Target.

    On Bills QB Josh Allen’s escapability
    Josh Allen broke 16 tackles in the pocket last season, which was second only to Lamar Jackson (20). However, he did this on 174 fewer dropbacks.

    Of the 103 QB’s with at least 300 dropbacks last season, Allen’s 4.8% Broken Tackle/Dropback rate led the FBS by a significant amount.

    On a successful Bears LB
    Bears LB Roquan Smith was excellent in man coverage last season:

    Out of 44 LBs with at least 10 man targets, Smith ranked 2nd in Success Rate (83.3%) and Yards/Touch (2.55).

    Success Rate, per Football Outsiders, is how often a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.

    On a disruptive CB
    Packers CB Josh Jackson has great ball skills. In 2017, he led the nation with 8 interceptions and ranked 4th among the 100 most targeted cornerbacks with a 31% Pass Disruption Rate.

    On surehanded receivers
    Arizona Cardinals WR Christian Kirk and Jacksonville Jaguars WR D.J. Chark ranked 1-2 in on-target catch percentage among receivers last season. Each caught 84 percent of on-target throws to them.

    On Mason Rudolph being first-round caliber
    When compared to Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, new Steelers QB Mason Rudolph had the second-highest Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR). IQR is a stat that measures QB effectiveness, taking into account the factors that he most controls.

    Rudolph also had the highest IQR among himself and the first-round quarterbacks when playing against a man defense.

  • Top 5 QB Prospects: Performance by Throw Location

    Top 5 QB Prospects: Performance by Throw Location

    By KEEGAN ABDOO
    Here at Sports Info Solutions, we track the direction and throw depth of every throw made at the FBS level, as well whether the ball was catchable or not. A huge conversation this draft season has been about the top five quarterback prospects and how well their true accuracy was represented by their Completion Percentage. Our On-Target Percentage statistic (simply catchable throws divided by all throws) captures a player’s ball placement ability much better than Completion Percentage, as it isolates a quarterback’s accuracy from his target’s ability to catch the ball.

    On that note, we have visualized each of the top five quarterback prospects’ accuracy and Target Share (percent of total attempts) by location of their throw. The size of the circle represents the Target Share, the color represents their On-Target Percentage relative to FBS average for that location (red = bad, yellow = average, green = good), and the number in the circle is their observed On-Target Percentage. We’ve included both 2016 and 2017 for these players to increase their sample sizes.


    Baker Mayfield


    In summary:     Was consistently accurate all over the field.

    Baker Mayfield has had above average to elite accuracy almost everywhere on the field. Directionally, he most frequently threw passes between the hashes and to the right sideline outside the numbers.

    From a throw depth perspective, he ranked in the top two (amongst these five QBs) in throws behind the line of scrimmage and in deep and intermediate areas. However, he threw by far the fewest passes in the 0-to-9 yard range of any QB in this group at 33% (which was seven percentage points less than any other QB).

    When comparing his accuracy to FBS average, he had four of the five biggest differences in this group in On-Target Percentage: Deep Right Middle (+32%), Deep Left Middle (+31%), Intermediate Right Outside (+27%), and Deep Right Outside (+18%).


    Sam Darnold


    In summary:     Could stick a deep throw to the right sideline at an elite level.

    Sam Darnold presented more of a mixed bag. Directionally, he slightly favored his right, especially outside the numbers.

    His accuracy was most impressive compared to FBS average in the Deep Middle (+17%) and Deep Right Outside (+15%), but he attempted three times as many throws (52 attempts vs. 17) to that Deep Right Outside area.


    Josh Rosen


    In summary:     Majority of throws were short, potential West Coast Offense fit.

    Josh Rosen absolutely loved throwing in that bread basket right in front of him in the short middle—he had a higher percentage of his attempts here than any other of these QBs had in any area (13%).

    Likewise, this conservative throw distribution (whether by scheme or a bad offensive line) showed up again in his deep throw percentage, which ranked last by a considerable margin. By direction, nearly two-thirds of his throws were between the numbers.

    His accuracy didn’t really stand out in any area other than the Intermediate Left Outside (+14%); this was his only area which he placed in the top 20 (of the 100 depth and direction combinations) in terms of the difference between his On-Target Percentage and the FBS average.


    Lamar Jackson


    In summary:     Threw short the most, deep middle sweet spot.

    Jackson did have the highest percentage of throws to the short area (46%), but he had the second fewest percentage of throws behind the LOS (13%) and lowest in the intermediate area (23%).

    Jackson really loved the Deep Middle—his Target Share in this area (6%) was highest of any prospects in any deep section, and his On-Target Percentage was elite (8% above FBS Average) on a big sample. However, his two most accurate areas compared to FBS average were interestingly both to the left and outside the numbers—specifically the Short Left Outside (+13%) and Intermediate Left Outside (+12%).


    Josh Allen


    In summary:     Works sideline and deep the most.

    And finally, we have Josh Allen, an inaccurate QB whose arm strength and mobility still entice teams to think about his potential. To be fair, Allen’s throw locations were often to some of the hardest places to complete passes on the field, as his 51% Target Share outside the numbers was 12% more than the next QB (Darnold, 39%).

    Correspondingly, he was averse to throwing in the middle and left middle areas, ranking last in both. He also led in the percentage of his throws that were deep (22%) and intermediate (27%), while having the least amount of easy throws behind the LOS.

    While his accuracy generally was below average, he did excel in the Deep Right Middle compared to FBS average (+19%, which ranked fourth overall among these 100 combinations). However, that was on only 19 attempts, so sample size beware.

    After diving deep into accuracy by ball location, a lot of the narratives from this draft season actually hold up pretty well. Allen was, in fact, asked to make harder throws than everyone else.

    But even after controlling for the difficulty of throws, there is no QB who even came close to Mayfield in terms of being consistently accurate no matter where he threw the ball.