Sports Info Solutions

Log In

Tag: Indianapolis Colts

  • Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

    Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

    Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

    They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Steelers No. 1 and the Patriots No. 2 because they were most confident in the Steelers being over their 8.5 win projection and the Patriots being under their 7.5 win projection.

    The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

    If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

    Team Over/Under (Model) Team Over/Under (Model)
    1. Steelers 
    		 8.5 (Over) 9. Titans 7.5 (Under)
    2. Patriots 7.5 (Under) 10. Jaguars 9.5 (Under)
    3. Chiefs 11.5 (Over) 11. Texans 6.5 (Under)
    4. Raiders 6.5 (Over) 12. Dolphins 9.5 (Over)
    5. Jets 9.5 (Under) 13. Ravens 9.5 (Over)
    6. Broncos 8.5 (Under) 14. Colts 6.5 (Under)
    7. Chargers 9.5 (Over) 15. Bengals 11.5 (Over)
    8. Bills 10.5 (Over) 16. Browns  9.5 (Over)

    Steelers – Over 8.5 (Model = 10.5)

    Matt (over): The line that we were given was 8.5. The model projects them for 10.5. A lot of my methodology was where did my intuition match the largest differences that our model presented. And this was one of those spots.

    Bryce: Does the model know Kenny Pickett is the quarterback?

    Matt: The model sees everything. 

    The TJ Watt injury affected their performance during the season last year, but the model just looks at the depth chart and says, who are the players who are going to get the most snaps and who’s going to make the most impact? And if we expect him to play a full season, that’s a pretty big impact on the defense. It’s not like we’re betting on Kenny Pickett advancing as a passer.

    James: And the schedule’s pretty easy. They play the NFC West and the AFC South this year. The team-level metrics go back on a 7-game weighted rolling average. So, the last 7 games for the Steelers last year resulted in a 6-1 record in taking care of some of their opponents in their division and gaining momentum into the season. So you’ll see that with this team and as well as a few other teams, that a good end of 2022 translates to a potentially higher win total in 2023 

    Patriots – Under 7.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Alex (under): So I am #trustingtheprocess and taking the New England Patriots under 7.5. Idiot. James is shaking his head and he’s responsible for my decision here. 

    I don’t necessarily believe that they would get three games under, but having some amount under I would believe in terms of division competition. The division got better with Aaron Rodgers moving to the Jets. I think the Dolphins are risky because of Tua, and he’s one injury away from that team looking totally different. The Bills are pretty solid, obviously. So I’d be nervous about betting (the Patriots). 

    And so the competition in the division is tough. And the team has made a lot of lateral moves the last couple of years. And really, I don’t necessarily see Mac Jones taking a big step forward with the rest of the offense around him.

    James: I was shaking my head in disgust because they were going to be my first pick. Their schedule is brutal and I don’t know how much I consider Bill O’Brien an upgrade at offensive coordinator.

    Chiefs – Over 11.5 (Model = 12.5)

    Bryce (over): This one’s easy. I’m taking Chiefs over 11.5

    Matt: That’s a great pick as long as Mahomes doesn’t get injured.

    Bryce: The model had them at 12.5, so one win over what the Vegas total is. I don’t have any really intricate reasoning for this beyond they have Patrick Mahomes, and that James’ betting model thinks they’re actually a win better than the Vegas total would suggest. It’s hard to see them losing six games with Patrick.

    Alex: Yeah, I don’t think we need to belabor that point too much.

    Raiders – Under 6.5 (Model = 8) 

    ** We went against the model here**

    James (Under): This has already seen some sentiment in the market, being bet down from 7.5 at -181 to 6.5 -135 at Pinnacle.

    I just can’t trust any of the moves they made in the offseason. Bringing in Jimmy G. I don’t know if, like, they’re trying to stand in limbo. And I just don’t trust McDaniel as the coach.

    Matt: This is one I was back and forth on. I probably would have gone over mostly because of the model. And because 6.5  isn’t a lot, but it’s hard to be inspired about where the Raiders are right now.

    Jets – Under 9.5 (Model = 7)

    James (under): This was the model’s second-biggest discrepancy. We have them around 7 wins.

    Obviously the finish to last year is a reason why the model brought down; scoring 6, 6 and 3 points in your last three doesn’t exactly scream competence.

    Aaron Rodgers, obviously, he can scare you. He can scare you by being a Top 3-5 quarterback in this league. And he can scare you by not wanting to play football anymore. And from last year playing in Green Bay, he wasn’t as great.

    Matt: The counterpoint is that the model is taking into account that the Jets stunk at the end of last year, but it is also taking into account that they have Aaron Rodgers performing at basically last year’s level, correct, which is not top quarterback in the league, but it was sort of good.

    Broncos – Under 8.5 (Model = 6.5)

    Bryce (under): They were what, like a 5-win team last year? I get that Sean Payton’s in the building now. You no longer have a circus clown running the show. That’s probably good for at least a win. Their off season moves… Well, first of all, they didn’t have a first-round pick, so there’s not a lot of immediate impact talent coming through in the draft because they gave up so much for Russell Wilson, who I’m famously not a believer in.

    I think the offensive line got a little bit better, but I think that Wilson neutralizes a lot of the opportunity for those guys to make an impact in pass protection.

    I don’t see this team being four wins better than what they were last year. Even with Payton on board, I can’t get behind Russell Wilson. 

    Chargers – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

    Alex (over): I feel nervous because they’re the Chargers and something always goes wrong. But we talked last week about where Herbert stands in terms of the pantheon of current quarterbacks; and the skill position players are good; the offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but looks all right at this point in time.

    The defense has some interesting players and some guys that you’re not sure what to get, but just a change in coaching philosophy and a division that’s maybe a little bit has, as I mentioned before, like the division could be very good, but also does definitely have some vulnerability to it. 

    At the end of the day, I’m sort of banking on Herbert being the quarterback that he has shown to be at least capable of in stretches.

    Bills – Over 10.5 (Model = 13)

    Matt (over): I feel really good about betting on the Bills to go at least 11-6. 

    There is a scenario I think this year where things really sort of fall apart in Buffalo. I just think it’s not a likely scenario. And so, like, maybe there’s some really bad cases for them, I just think that more of the cases end up with 11 wins or more, than the bad cases. So I like the over here a lot, the model likes the over here a lot at 13.

    I’m sort of concerned about whatever’s been going on with Stefon Diggs and how that figures into everything. But I’m mostly encouraged. I think they’re a well-run team, a smart team, well-coached, well-managed and I’m expecting a bit more balance and diversification of the offense this year.

    Titans – Under 7.5 (Model = 6.5)

    Matt (under): Their line was 7.5, our model projects them for 6.5. And our model nailed it. 

    They’ve got 16 quarterbacks on the roster. They all stink. I don’t care that they signed an old receiver to try to make up for their past sins.

    They’ll try hard, which is like the worst thing about this. And they’ve hit this number before, but I think they stink and I’m happy to take the under on them. 

    Alex: Yeah, the Titans have been teetering on dropping out into irrelevance, and Derrick Henry has sustained production that I think a lot of people were not assuming would happen. And he’s  the exception to the rule of being able to drive team-level production with running back production. 

    Jaguars – Over 9.5 (Model = 9)

    Alex (over): As Matt so eloquently pointed out – the Titans: not good. The Texans: not good. The Colts: I guess we don’t really know, but probably not great. And so that drives a lot of it, but also just the Trevor Lawrence advancement year-over-year. 

    The defense has some guys on it. I don’t know if I expect them to do a ton in the playoffs, but I expect that given the situation they find themselves in that they’re going to have a pretty strong regular season.

    Texans – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 6)

    Bryce (under): They were a three-win team last year. They added quite a bit of talent this year, but it’s young talent. 

    Matt (over): I do like their secondary.

    Bryce (under): Yeah. I think Stingley is going to be great. Desmond King’s an underrated player. I like Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre. I’m a little bit concerned about their front six. I like Stroud going forward, but I don’t know if he’s going to an amazing Year 1 player. I just have a hard time seeing them being four wins better than last year.

    Matt (over): Well, all they got to do is steal some games against the other crappy teams in their division. I think that the division’s terrible. I think that the young players that they brought on should be able to help them relatively quickly.

    I talked about how I like their secondary. I think they finally have some better management in the building there and so I’m bullish on them. I think they can keep games close on the strength of their secondary and what Demeco Ryans can cook up front. Offensively, it’ll be a slog, but I’m really betting on them having the schedule that can help get them there and just the fact that they’re still going to be trying to win games late in the year when other teams might have otherwise laid down.

    Dolphins – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

    James (over): If the Patriots aren’t gonna win games, the Jets aren’t gonna win games, and the Bills are gonna win the amount of games that they should win, that means the Miami Dolphins are gonna win a lot of games in that division.

    I think bringing in Vic Fangio was a huge get for them, as well as bringing in Jalen Ramsey to solidify the defense. You have Jalen Phillips, who took a step forward last year, with Bradley Chubb there as well on the D line. And the Dolphins offense, obviously a lot of it comes down to Tua’s health. But, if they stay healthy, the Miami Dolphins can very much go over a win total of 9.5

    Bryce: I think Tua is mid, but there’s a ton of talent everywhere else on this team, and I think the coaching on the offensive side of the ball is phenomenal, so I don’t think it’ll matter whether or not Tua himself is a world beater.

    Ravens – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

    James (over): With the Ravens, it obviously, as it has the past two or three years after his MVP season, comes down to Lamar. Can he stay healthy and take a step forward in this offense?

    Obviously this division is no joke, I already talked about the Steelers and then the Bengals and Browns are bona fide teams that can push for playoffs and if things go right, play for a Super Bowl. Luckily, with the division, with the schedule breakdown, just like how the Steelers get the NFC West and the AFC South, the Ravens also get the AFC South and the NFC West.

    Colts – Under 6.5 (Model = 5)

    Bryce (under): Our model’s got them at five. I myself am a bit skeptical of them, particularly that secondary. I’m a believer in Anthony Richardson long term. I think  there’s potential for Year 1 to look kind of ugly for him.

    I know it’s a weak division. They might steal some games. I don’t know. Quarterback is such a driving force and Richardson is definitely not the most polished coming out of school. I think it’s hard for them to get seven wins. I think they’re going to get passed on, and I don’t know how well they’re going to be able to pass.

    Matt: I have no idea what to think of that team this year. I thought they had a nice draft. I think they’re kind of in a rebuilding mode. I think that Richardson is less of a project than people think he is, but still a great project.

    Bengals – Under 11.5 (Model = 12)

    Alex (under, despite the model projecting over): I acknowledge that the team is good and that I don’t expect them to tank relative to expectations. We just talked about the Steelers potentially being an over candidate; the Ravens being an over candidate; Browns, who knows what to expect with Deshaun Watson, but theoretically could pick things up after last year. So the schedule might be kind of tough.

    I’m still not entirely sure that the way that Joe Burrow plays quarterback is conducive to consistent success because of the sacks and that kind of stuff. And there’s still a little bit of uncertainty about what that offensive line is going to look like. And the defense has kind of been picked apart a little bit. 

    I still think they’ll be good, but I’m not sure if they’ve sort of hit their ceiling already 

    Matt: I’ll take it further. I love the Bills over 10.5. If you had set them at 11.5, I don’t love it. The Bengals were set at 11.5. But if you switched them, I get just as excited to take the over on the Bengals. 

  • Assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of NFL playoff contenders

    Assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of NFL playoff contenders

    As we get to the end of the season, hot topics tend to run themselves into the ground. Particularly as we hone in on the teams and games that matter most and let the rest fall into the background.

    So let’s take a step back as we head into the postseason and look at what each playoff contender is doing well or poorly.

    Often when we refer to team performance we take things at a season level, or we take arbitrary slices of time (first half / second half, month-by-month, and so on). For this discussion wanted to measure how well teams have been playing recently but not entirely disregard early-season performance.

    To do that we took inspiration from our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings. It uses Points Above Average, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that sets average performance at 0, and measures how good a quarterback currently is by combining multiple years of data but with recent performance weighted more heavily.

    So, in identifying which teams are doing well in which ways, we took recency-weighted Points Above Average across four dimensions:

      1) Passing game (including blocking and QB scrambles)
      2) Running game (including blocking and excluding scrambles)
      3) Pass Defense
      4) Run Defense

     

    Here’s where we stand with the biggest contenders heading into Week 18.

    AFC

    Recency-Weighted Points Above Average by Team (NFL ranks)

    Team Pass Run Pass Def Run Def Overall
    Chiefs 3 11 3 7 1
    Bills 9 2 10 22 4
    Patriots 6 4 16 16 5
    Bengals 1 23 20 25 9
    Chargers 5 15 12 31 12
    Colts 13 1 22 18 14
    Titans 20 19 9 10 16
    Raiders 12 17 29 12 19
    Steelers 26 14 6 27 21

    Chiefs

    We’ve talked about the Chiefs so much this year, and there’s not much new to say. The offense was never as bad as it appeared, and our numbers reflect that. They rank third in the NFL in passing effectiveness, and if you didn’t weight for recency they’d rank second.

    But the defense has improved a lot. Through the first half, they were bottom-five in EPA per play allowed in the passing game. They’re in the top 10 since. In the running game, Kansas City has gone from second-worst to middle of the pack. This is now a complete team that is every bit the threat we thought they’d be.

    Titans

    On the other side of things are the Titans. When was the last time we saw a shakier 1-seed? The 2006 Grossman-led Bears? If we take the sum of their recency-weighted Points Above Average, they’d rank 16th in the NFL. They’ve been dealing with injuries all year, and might get Derrick Henry back at exactly the right time. Especially so if they can get a bye.

    Whatever the situation, Tennessee’s offense is not the reason that it is in this position. The Titans rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. But their defense has been consistently solid, and they rank in the top 10 in both pass and rush defense. If they can get a bye and find a groove with Henry back, maybe that’s enough.

    Patriots

    One team whose offense ranks better than you might think is the Patriots. Their passing game is ranked sixth despite Mac Jones’ Rookie of the Year campaign taking a hit in recent weeks. Starting with the Bills game where Jones barely threw the ball, the Pats are in the top ten in Passing EPA and Positive%. They have virtually the same boom/bust profile—the percentage of plays with +1 or -1 EPA—as the Chiefs.

    New England’s defense has been fine, but is slipping a bit. Both its pass and rush defense rank middle-of-the-pack. When people talk about complementary football, this is the sort of team you think of. The way that New England’s offense has held onto the ball, sustained drives, and shortened games has helped the defense play above their skis, particularly after divesting itself of Stephon Gilmore.

    Bills

    The Bills still lost to the Patriots in Week 13 when they barely threw the ball, but if it had been normal weather they might still have had some issues on the back end. Their recency-weighted pass defense rank is 10th, while their unweighted rank would have been 3rd. We know their secondary was excellent to start the year, and that Tre’Davious White got hurt in Week 12. But they have really only had one excellent game in terms of pass defense over the last couple months, and that started before White’s injury. Through Week 10, White, Jordan Poyer, Levi Wallace, and Taron Johnson were all in the top 25 DBs in Pass Coverage Points Saved. None of them can say that in the weeks since.

    The Bills have one of the more surprising results using this methodology. They rank second in the running game. While they don’t run a lot, they’ve been pretty effective with it. Excluding QB runs, they’re at the top of the list in Broken/Missed tackles per attempt over the second half of the season, and only a few teams have gotten stuffed less frequently.

    Bengals

    One of the big topics we might have been discussing in this space if I hadn’t already shown disdain for the notion is Joe Burrow’s MVP candidacy. The Bengals are unsurprisingly the top-ranked pass offense, 200 passing yards ahead of the next-best Chiefs over the last three games. But they rank in the 20’s in the other three dimensions, and that’s the big question for them. Can a team that’s gotten this hot sustain it, and can its one awesome dimension overcome average-surrounding context?

    If the Bengals do, it’ll likely be the result of a few key playmakers on defense. Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard each rank in the top 15 in Pass Rush Points Saved, although it’s been more from splash plays than consistent pressure, which is harder to rely on. Chidobe Awuzie has been one of the more-targeted corners in the NFL, making opponents pay because he’s been better at limiting damage than basically everyone in the top 20.

    NFC

    Recency-Weighted Points Above Average by Team (NFL ranks)

    Team Pass Run Pass Def Run Def Overall
    Buccaneers 4 6 7 11 2
    Packers 2 8 5 32 3
    Cardinals 7 22 14 3 6
    Rams 11 10 15 4 7
    Cowboys 14 24 1 15 8
    49ers 8 16 24 1 10
    Eagles 10 3 19 20 11
    Saints 23 30 2 6 15

    Packers

    Despite not topping the list above, the Packers still sit quite pretty in the NFC hierarchy. They have had pretty consistent ranks throughout the year. This is a great example of what is important in the NFL, though, because they’ve been good all year while being pretty bad defending the run. They’ve had three above-average run defense games according to Total Points. Maybe it’s good news that they were all in the second half of the year? But it hasn’t mattered much.

    Buccaneers

    The Buccaneers are certainly not feeling like the second-best team in the NFL, as these numbers suggest. It remains to be seen what they will look like with the knowledge that Antonio Brown won’t be returning, but let’s not forget that this team had elite underlying metrics last year before they won it all, and they were doing it again this year before a bit of a swoon. But there is a swoon. All of their rankings above are worse than they would be if we didn’t weigh for recent performance.

    Cardinals

    Whether it’s a direct consequence or not, the Cardinals losing DeAndre Hopkins coincides with a drop-off in offensive effectiveness. Their pass offense looks 2 points worse per game when you weigh recent games more heavily.

    And it’s a similar story on the defensive side (probably without Hopkins as an explanation). Just using first half / second half splits, Arizona is allowing two-tenths of an expected point per play more than it was in the first eight weeks. So 8 points per game if you assume 40 plays per game. In the first half of the year, they were causing more “Bust” plays than “Boom” plays. Only the Bills could have claimed that. Not so much anymore.

    Rams

    The Rams haven’t been quite as explosive in the pass game of late. They had a 32% Boom Rate (plays with an EPA greater than 1) through the first half of the year, but just 20% since. More sacks, more picks, not the “more” you’re looking for. On the whole, with recency-weighting they now sit basically a point per game above average in each of passing, rushing, pass defense, and run defense. They are a bit of a counter to the teams that don’t mind too much being deficient in one dimension (think the Packers).

    Cowboys

    We expected more from the Cowboys pass offense, for sure. It’s not particularly hot right now. But the pass defense is where they’ve looked a lot better. Obviously Trevon Diggs had an exciting start to the year, but he was masking some pretty questionable results on the rest of his snaps. That’s even more extreme now, with four picks but 11 yards per target in the second half of the year. Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis have been a lot more productive overall, and Micah Parsons has started to show his ability to do it all, allowing 6 yards on 137 coverage snaps in the second half of the year.

    49ers

    In theory, the 49ers are a run-and-stop-the-run team. And they are a top run defense. But in practice, their passing game has actually been a bit better than their running game. They’ve obviously had a rotating cast of characters in the backfield, so we can give them a bit of a pass there. But the passing game has been much more explosive than you’d expect if you knew Jimmy G had started most of the year. They trail only the Rams in Boom% through the air.

    Eagles

    Another team whose passing rank might surprise you is the Eagles. In terms of Points Above Average per game, they are about the same passing and rushing. But the same amount of value in terms of points ranks you 10th in passing and 3rd in rushing. They are among the best ten teams in limiting points and yards, but more middle-of-the-road by EPA-based metrics. Remember their last five games have come against both New York teams and Washington. Darius Slay had a nice resurgent season going, but he’s produced literally zero Points Saved each of the last four weeks. With a relatively meaningless game against Dallas this week we still might not see them tested until next week.

  • The challenge ahead in returning Carson Wentz to past success

    The challenge ahead in returning Carson Wentz to past success

    By BRYCE ROSSLER

    Carson Wentz has become such a morbid subject. His early career arc and the bitterness with which his time in Philly ended has made him one of the greatest sources of NFL schadenfreude in recent memory. 

    By now, we’re all familiar with the story. Second-year breakout and MVP favorite blows his knee out, watches his backup win a Super Bowl, and thus begins a slow descent that culminates in a departure that costs his team $34 million. The Carson Wentz that existed in 2017 has since been turned to stone by the gorgon that is Philadelphia sports, and now, the only statue to commemorate Wentz’s tenure in Philly is a bronze tribute to his former backup, Nick Foles. The Eagles traded Wentz to the Colts for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could become a first-round pick based on playing time.

    Wentz is something of a fixer-upper at this point. It feels obvious to say that this will go down as a good deal for the Colts if he can be restored to his former glory, but 2017 Wentz is probably a mirage from both a statistical and a practical sense. For the Win’s Steven Ruiz pointed out that Wentz’s MVP campaign was largely fueled by unstable third down and red zone splits. Indeed, our Total Points metric suggests that he wasn’t that good in 2017. He was also so bad in 2020 that it seems like a Sisyphean task to get him back there.. And while his peak has been exaggerated, his downfall has not been.

    It doesn’t help that Wentz has a good chance to fulfill the playing-time criterion—70% if the Colts make the playoffs (while playing in a pretty bad division), 75% if they don’t—that would escalate the 2022 pick to a first-rounder. While the Colts have ultimate control over whether or not Wentz meets that threshold, it’s unlikely that he will miss it due to injury. The general public’s hypochondriac perception of Wentz doesn’t comport to the fact that he played in 83% of possible regular season snaps during his Eagles tenure. In fact, he’s only dipped below the 70% threshold once in his five-year career—in 2018, when he was on the field for two-thirds of Philadelphia’s offensive plays.

    Our in-house injury coordinator John Verros reviews every injury that occurs at the FBS and NFL levels and isn’t particularly concerned about Wentz reaggravating any of his battle scars in 2021. “He tore his ACL in 2017 and instability in his other knee didn’t follow suit, and he didn’t require surgery on the vertebrae he fractured in 2018,” Verros said. 

    As for the concussion he sustained in the 2019 playoffs? “Usually players are at elevated risk for subsequent concussions for about a year after the initial brain injury, but he wasn’t listed as having accumulated further concussions this past season,” Verros said. “He should only carry a baseline level of risk moving forward.”

    All told, our predictive injury model gives Wentz just an 11% chance of sustaining an injury which would land him on injured reserve (IR) or require him to miss at least one game in 2021.

    So we should expect the Colts to escalate the conditional 2022 2nd-rounder.

    That is, of course, if we’re basing this on availability.

    It is not particularly helpful to wax poetic about Wentz’s reunion with former offensive coordinator Frank Reich. As much as we might like it to be, football isn’t some feel-good human-interest story. Of course, there exists the possibility that Reich is able to successfully reverse Wentz’s decline, but it will be difficult. 

    For example: last year, Wentz ranked 41st out of 44 qualifying quarterbacks (minimum 100 attempts) in Time to Throw Over Expectation (TTOE). 

    This statistic helps contextualize time to throw by using factors like offensive line performance, the quarterback’s drop, and the use of play action to set a baseline for how quickly the ball should come out. Wentz’s TTOE of +0.22 was a half-second worse than his predecessor’s. Philip Rivers, who ranked first in 2020 with -0.31 TTOE. There are notable stylistic differences at play here, but that’s a pretty large gap.

    At Sports Info Solutions, we have limited historical throw time data, but Next Gen Stats suggests that Wentz’s base Time to Throw has been pretty consistent regardless of whether Reich has been there (2.65 in 2016, 2.72 in 2017) or not (2.72 in 2018, 2.71 in 2019), with 2020 (2.91) being the obvious outlier. If Reich’s departure indeed impacted this facet of Wentz’s game, why did it take several seasons to manifest?

    Furthermore, Reich cannot be blamed for Wentz seemingly forgetting how to throw a football. Wentz’s On Target Rate Over Expectation has been trending downward since it was +2.3% in 2018 to -1.8% in 2019 and then an abysmal -6.9% in 2020. This gradual decline provides hope for a renaissance, but the onset occurred well after Reich left and suggests repairs will have to occur incrementally.

    Perhaps the most compelling argument for a hypothetical Carson Wentz redemption story is not about the coordinator he lost, but the receivers he’s played without. Looking at his Total Points through the lens of on-off splits for Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz might be helpful in this regard.

    Carson WentzÔÇÖs Passing Efficiency With and Without Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz, 2018-19

    Split Passing Total Points Per 60 Snaps
    Jeffery & Ertz 9.9 (891 snaps)
    Only Ertz 6.5 (626 snaps)
    Only Jeffery 4.7 (135 snaps)
    Neither 1.5 (137 snaps)

    Before Wentz fell off the cliff that was 2020, when he couldn’t seem to do much of anything right, he had been extremely reliant on his top two targets in order to perform efficiently.

    Greg Ward (778 snaps) and Travis Fulgham (541) got the most use in 2020. Rookie first-rounder Jalen Reagor (505) came in at third, while 2019 second-round pick JJ Arcega-Whiteside got just 137 snaps. Ideally, you would like top-64 picks to start over former undrafted free agents and sixth-rounders, and this upside-down sourcing of wide receiver contributions is a testament to the franchise’s recent failures to infuse a once lush roster with talent.

    2020 may not have been an ideal situation for Wentz, but he very much earned the criticism he has received from both a national audience and an admittedly vitriolic fanbase. He struggled to operate with timing and precision, he took sacks at a league-worst rate (9.8%), and he threw interceptions at the fourth-worst rate in the NFL (3.4%). Colts fans are likely hoping for the best, but it will take a Coach-of-the-Year type performance from Frank Reich to rescue Wentz, the embellished MVP candidate of days of yore who performed like a fringe starter in 2020.

  • Top prop odds in Colts vs Texans

    By Steven Schwartz

    The Indianapolis Colts offense is a complete mess for prop bettors heading into tonight’s game with the Houston Texans. The loss of Marlon Mack (fractured hand) leaves the backfield in a running-back-by-committee situation and at the wideout position, No.1 option T.Y. Hilton’s availability is still a question mark heading toward game time. Due to his injury status all of the prop bets odds for Colts receivers aren’t yet available. Neither are TD passes and interceptions for quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 24-12, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last four weeks (we went 2-2 last week). Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Jacoby Brissett, over 19.5 completions, -118.

    Given the upheaval at running back, the “run-centric” Colts may have to throw the ball more often. Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins are nice backups, but they aren’t Marlon Mack. In addition, the Colts will have to outscore the Texans in Houston this Thursday. In their first matchup this season Brissett went 26-of-39 for 326 yards and four scores. SIS data analysis predicts 23 completions which means a fair over should be -321, but the line is just -118. This is our best option of the night.

    2) DeAndre Hopkins, over 6.5 receptions, -106.

    It’s been since September since Hopkins caught less than seven passes in a game. With six consecutive games of seven or more catches and averaging 11.3 targets, Hopkins should be a bigger favorite than he is to go over the total. Our data says 11.5 targets and 8.1 receptions, making him a -232 favorite to go over.

    3) Duke Johnson, score a TD, +286.

    Johnson shares the backfield work with Carlos Hyde, doing most of his damage catching passes. He’s been a solid contributor all season and has scored a touchdown in three of the past five games (one rushing, two receiving). SIS data sets a fair number at +203, but the current number is +286.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Deshaun Watson, 1.5, over -136/under +107

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Deshaun Watson, 0.5, over -129/under +105

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Jacoby Brissett, 19.5 completions, over -118/under -106

    Deshaun Watson, 22.5 completions, over -106/under -118

    Touchdown Scorers

    Indianapolis

    ————–

    Jack Doyle +140

    Zach Pascal +150

    Eric Ebron +165

    T.T. Hilton +180

    Jonathan Williams +200

    Jordan Wilkins +200

    Chester Rogers +275

    Marcus Johnson +300

    Nyheim Hines +275

    Jacoby Brissett +600

     

    Houston

    ————-

    DeAndre Hopkins +105

    Carlos Hyde +105

    Kenny Stills +180

    Deshaun Watson +225

    Darren Fells +275

    Duke Johnson +285

    Keke Coutee +350

    Jordan Akins +525

    DeAndre Carter +600

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Houston –

    Darren Fells, 2.5, over +116/under -148

    DeAndre Hopkins, 6.5, over -106/under -120

    Duke Johnson, 2.5, over -109/under -117

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 4

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Throughout the early portion of the season the Patriots have done their fair share of mixing and matching up front in the trenches. The Bills pass rush will need to continue their success this week against a team that has very few deficiencies, if any at all. Specifically key in on Marshall Newhouse’s performance this week, as he now he finds himself starting at LT for the Patriots. If the Bills want to have success this week look for them to exploit Newhouse with the pass rushing skills of Shaq Lawson, Jerry Hughes, and Lorenzo Alexander.

    Bills Top Pass Rushers (Weeks 1-3)

    PlayerPass RushesPressure%
    Jerry Hughes8313.3%
    Lorenzo Alexander4710.6%
    Shaq Lawson3810.5%

     

    Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Britton Mann, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The most important task for the Panthers offense this weekend is to establish the run game. Christian McCaffrey had a team high 153 rushing yards last weekend which helped open up the passing game for Allen. So far this year the Texans have given up an average of 108 rushing yards per game, which lands them as the 15th best run defense this year. With the Panthers starting their backup quarterback, they’ll need to lean on McCaffrey and his explosive running style in order to beat the Texans on Sunday.

    Christian McCaffrey vs. the Texans Run Defense

     AttYds/AttBroken Tackle%Points Earned (Rushing Plays)
    Christian McCaffrey (Week 3)246.417%2.4
    RBs vs. Texans Defense485.225%4.9

     

    Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Sales Pinckney, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Early on, Matt Ryan ranks among the top 5 QB’s in Completions, Completion Percentage, Yards, and Passing TD’s. He also ranks first in interceptions out of all QBs. Several potential scoring drives have ended due to an interception, which has often led to points on the other end. This has served as a hindrance to the early season efforts of Julio Jones, who has caught 4 TD passes through the first three weeks. Avoiding turnovers will be key this week as the Falcons take on the Titans, who rank second in turnover margin, and third in interceptions, after three weeks.

    Matt Ryan’s Red Zone Performance by Year

     AttemptsINT%Points Earned (Passing Plays)
    2016961.0%17.3
    2017752.7%2.5
    2018771.3%8.3
    20191414.3%-2.9

     

    Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Cyril Zachary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Gareon Conley needs to get back on track for the Raiders to find a semblance of defensive success. Conley looked great last season, giving up 21 catches on 42 targets, while surrendering a league-low 59% deserved catch rate among defenders targeted over 20 times. This year, he’s given up 11 catches on 13 targets and is allowing the second-most yards per target of any corner that has seen at least 10 targets . With limited pass rushers and an injury-riddled linebacker unit, the Raiders will continue giving up points in bunches if Conley doesn’t find his 2018 form.

    Gareon Conley’s Performance 2018 vs. 2019

     TargetsDeserved Catch%Yds/TargetPoints Saved (Passing Plays)
    20174256%9.59
    20181385%14.3-10.4

     

    Washington Redskins @ New York Giants – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Even though Saquon Barkley is gone for the foreseeable future, do not expect the playbook to shrink this week. Expect the opposite, actually. Daniel Jones’ debut should have created a lot of confidence for Pat Shurmur to really air it out in Barkley’s absence, especially against a typically stout Redskins front seven. Additionally, Josh Norman and the rest of the Redskins secondary has generally struggled to cover receivers so far this season, so depending on game flow, expect Shurmur to cut Jones loose this week.

    Daniel Jones (Week 3) vs Redskins Top 2 Cornerbacks (Weeks 1-3)

     AttCatchable%IQRPoints Earned (Passing Plays)
    Daniel Jones3681%112.87.4
         
     TargetsDeserved Catch%QBR AgainstPoints Saved (Passing Plays)
    Josh Norman1987%119.9-4.5
    Quinton Dunbar11100%89.90.7

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints – 9/29 8:20 ET

    Cole Ratliff, SIS Operations Associate:

    As the Cowboys face a tough test vs the Saints this week, the key will be the defense stopping Alvin Kamara.  A key to help stop Kamara will be gap control across the line of scrimmage to prevent cutback lanes so Kamara has no opening to run through.

    Alvin Kamara vs. the Cowboys Run Defense

     AttYds/AttBroken Tkl%Points Earned (Rushing Plays)
    Alvin Kamara425.031%4.5
    RB’s vs. Cowboys Defense (Weeks 1-3)415.017%1.7

    The Cowboys offense has been an equal balance through three games in both the run and pass game, including both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard each rushing for over 100 yards vs Miami.  A key to the Cowboys offensive success has been Dak Prescott and his improvement in getting the ball out of his hands quickly and distributing the ball to his playmakers.

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Playing a team with a mobile quarterback for the third time in four weeks means Marcus Davenport gets to show one more time how athletic and versatile he is. He’ll again be the key to keeping the quarterback (this time Dak Prescott) from making plays outside the pocket. And with the Cowboys being a heavy play action team he will have to be smart with when he aggressively pursues the quarterback and when he chooses to maintain his gap against the run.

    Marcus Davenport (Weeks 1-3)

    PlayerPass RushesPressure%Points Saved (Passing Plays)Points Saved (Rushing Plays)
    Marcus Davenport6512%2.51.4

     

  • Preview: AFC Divisional Round – Colts vs. Chiefs

    By MARK SIMON

    Let’s take a brief look at some statistical notes ahead of the AFC Divisional Round playoff game between the Colts and Chiefs.

    Colts Passing vs. Chiefs Pass Defense

      • Andrew Luck had the most Points Earned of any quarterback from Week 8 through the end of the regular season. Patrick Mahomes ranked second. Luck had one fewer pass attempt than Mahomes in that span, but his throws totaled 156 more air yards, and he took only eight sacks to Mahomes’ 19.
      • The Chiefs tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 53 and ranked third in quarterback pressures with 211. The top player in Points Saved via Pass Rush this season was linebacker Dee Ford, who ranked ninth in the NFL with 13½ sacks and ranked seventh in the league in pressure percentage (13.8 percent).
      • The Colts offensive line has allowed only 18 sacks on the season, the lowest total in the league, despite having the second most pass attempts. They are led by star rookie lineman Quenton Nelson whose blown block rate of 0.5 percent ranks as fifth-best in the league.
      • Though Eric Ebron led the Colts in touchdown receptions, T.Y. Hilton was the more valuable receiver by our Points Earned metric. Sixty percent of Hilton’s targets had a positive Expected Points Added (EPA) value (in other words, they were valuable plays). Ebron’s rate was 53 percent.
      • The Chiefs’ defense allowed the most passing yardage in the NFL, though that’s likely due to teams trying to play catch up against them. Overall, the pass defense ranked 11th in the NFL in Points Saved. The Chiefs did have two cornerbacks – Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick, who ranked in the top 12 in the league in lowest completion percentage against, minimum 40 targets. Nelson ranked fifth (46 percent) and Scandrick ranked 12th (49 percent).

    Colts Rushing vs. Chiefs Run Defense

      • The Colts ranked 22nd in Points Earned from rushing in the first 14 weeks of the season, though they were 13th in the last three weeks, thanks to a pair of 100-yard rushing games from Marlon Mack, who had another last week against the Texans
      • The Chiefs are susceptible to the run, as 52 percent of rushes against them had a positive Expected Points value. That was the highest rate in the NFL by six percentage points. The difference between the Chiefs and the second-highest team was the same as the difference between second and 24th.
      • Marlon Mack had a big game in the Wild Card win over the Texans. For the season, Mack averages 5.2 yards per rush when running left, 4.2 per rush when running right.

    Chiefs Passing vs. Colts Pass Defense

      • Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in 2018. Mahomes threw the seventh-most passes in the league, but the most that were at least 20 yards downfield. His 43 percent completion percentage on those passes ranked fifth. As a result, he averaged 82 yards per game on deep passes, easily best in the NFL.
      • 57 percent of pass plays the Colts gave up had a positive Expected Points value. That ranked second highest in the NFL this season. The Colts allowed a 43 percent completion percentage on 20-plus yard passes, fourth-highest in the NFL.
      • Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill had the most deep targets in the NFL (42 in which he was at least 20 yards downfield) and the most receptions (18). Next-most on the Chiefs was tight end Travis Kelce (7). Kelce, the Chiefs leading receiver, led NFL tight ends with 24 third-down receptions.

    Chiefs Rushing vs. Colts Rushing Defense

      • With Kareem Hunt suspended and released, the Chiefs will go with Damien Williams as their primary ball carrier. Williams averaged 6 yards per run in the last three games of the season, which ranked fourth in the NFL in that span. That includes 6.8 yards per outside and off-tackle run (on 27 runs), which ranks fifth in that time.
    • The Colts’ rushing defense ranked 14th in points saved in the regular season. But one thing they were good at, relative to the rest of the league, was stopping outside runs, allowing only 4.3 yards per carry. They were fifth-best in the NFL in Points Saved on those runs.

    * Independent Quarterback Rating is Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric. It builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by accounting for results that are outside of the quarterback’s control – dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. – to form a better benchmark of QB value.

    Nate Weller also contributed to this post.