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  • Are The Angels A Good Defensive Team?

    Are The Angels A Good Defensive Team?

    Photo: John Cordes/Icon Sportswire

    2024 Defensive Runs Saved Rank: 16th

    Team Strengths

    Right fielder Jo Adell won our Defensive Player of the Month award once in 2024 and finished with a respectable 6 Runs Saved there last season He’s now the team’s center field and we’ll see how his success in right field converts over.

    Shortstop Zach Neto was one of the best in baseball at turning the double play and also one of the best at going up the middle to make plays. He finished tied for 3rd with 11 Defensive Runs Saved at the position. However, he had shoulder surgery and won’t start the season with the team. 

    In his place will be veteran Kevin Newman, who fared alright at shortstop with the Diamondbacks, saving 4 runs in 55 games. He’s had as many as 9 runs saved in a season at the position but also as few as -6, so he’s a bit of a wild card.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Shortstop 

    Player Runs Saved
    Masyn Winn 14
    Taylor Walls 12
    Zach Neto 11
    Brayan Rocchio 11
    Geraldo Perdomo 10
    Ezequiel Tovar 10

    Team Weaknesses

    If Yoan Moncada sticks at third base, he’s their biggest defensive liability. In 2023, Moncada finished with -7 Runs Saved, the worst total of his career.

    Taylor Ward allowed way too many runners to advance on his arm last season. He’d have finished with a positive Runs Saved overall if not for a -5 Outfield Arm Runs Saved that pushed him down to 0. The range is fine. The allowing advancement is not up to MLB standards at the moment.

    Other things to consider

    Mike Trout is moving from center field to right field. Trout has rated as an average center fielder when he’s been on the field the last few years. Most center fielders fare well in the other outfield spots. Trout has been an average center fielder over the last couple of seasons. We’ll see how he fares with less ground to cover.

    Past studies that we’ve done at SIS show that center fielders improve by about 8 Runs Saved per 1,000 innings when moving to a corner spot. Meanwhile, Adell was the team’s top defensive outfielder last season, finishing with 6 Runs Saved. Corners typically decline about 7 runs per 1,000 innings when moving to center field.

    Are They A Good Defensive Team?

    I went into this exercise thinking the answer would probably be a no, but in actuality, the Angels being at least average at most spots but only good at a couple makes them middle-of-the-pack relative to the rest of the sport.

  • May’s Defensive Players of the Month: Ezequiel Tovar and Jo Adell

    May’s Defensive Players of the Month: Ezequiel Tovar and Jo Adell

    It’s been rough sledding all season for the Rockies and Angels, two teams at the bottom of their respective divisions through two months with little hope of catching the contenders.

    But we recognize defensive excellence wherever it comes, and even on these struggling teams there are examples to be found at different spots on the field.

    Our Defensive Players of the Month for May are Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and Angels right fielder Jo Adell.

    Tovar was terrific in the field in 2023 and has again been great in 2024. His 7 Defensive Runs Saved ranked 1st among shortstops this month. His 18 Runs Saved since the start of last season rank tied for the most among shortstops with Anthony Volpe and his 6 this season are tied for the most at shortstop with Brayan Rocchio and Masyn Winn.

    Tovar is particularly adept at turning the double play. He’s converted 40 double plays in 50 opportunities. The 80% success rate ranks 3rd in MLB and is 18 percentage points above MLB average for the position.

    Tovar has made quick slide-and-turn plays like this one against Marcus Semien regularly throughout his brief career. He’s also shown he can go back on popups (watch) and snag line drives (here). Tovar handled almost everything flawlessly. He had only 1 Defensive Misplay and no errors the entire month.

    “From last May to now, I can’t imagine any shortstop that’s played better than Ezequiel,” said Rockies manager Bud Black. “He’s steady. He’s dependable. He makes every play. And he does it his way. He’s got great instincts.”

    Added Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland: “He’s an incredible infielder. We love having him there as our leader on the infield. The sky’s the limit for a guy like that.”

    Most Defensive Runs Saved By Shortstop – 2024 Season

    Player Team Runs Saved
    Ezequiel Tovar Rockies 6
    Brayan Rocchio Guardians 6
    Masyn Winn Cardinals 6
    Gunnar Henderson Orioles 5
    Bobby Witt Jr. Royals 5
    Orlando Arcia Braves 5

    Adell led all players with 9 Runs Saved for May, a number boosted by a home run robbery (watch it). But that wasn’t his only great defensive play during the month. He had a fantastic catch against the Astros (here) and also made a great throw to preserve a tie in extra innings (here). His 5 Good Fielding Plays for the month ranked 2nd among right fielders to Starling Marte’s 8.

    Adell is still trying to figure things out as a hitter (he had a big slump at the end of May) but he looked the part of a star defender in May. He leads all right fielders with 7 Runs Saved this season.

    “It’s his work ethic,” said Angels third base coach Eric Young Sr., who works with first base coach Bo Porter on helping the team’s outfielders. “This guy came into camp on a mission to be the best all-around player he could be. He worked on his defense vigorously. That was his main focus when he came to the park. A total commitment to make it happen.”

    Most Defensive Runs Saved By Right Fielder- 2024 Season

    Player Team Runs Saved
    Jo Adell Angels 7
    Wilyer Abreu Red Sox 6
    Kyle Tucker Astros 6
    Max Kepler Twins 5
    Mike Yastrzemski Giants 5
    Andy Pages Dodgers 5
  • Stat of the Week: AL Defensive Stories In 2024

    Stat of the Week: AL Defensive Stories In 2024

    Photo: Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire

    BY MARK SIMON

    With Opening Day approaching, we wanted to preview the 2023 season from a defensive perspective. So to be fair to all 30 teams, we’ve got a stat-driven theme or story to watch for each team. We’ll do the AL teams this week, the NL next week.

    Angels – The Angels ranked 19th in Defensive Runs Saved last season and didn’t make any significant improvements on the defensive side. Mike Trout hasn’t been moved off center field but Mickey Moniak fared well there when Trout was out, so it’s worth wondering if anything could happen on that front in 2024. For now, Trout is in center field and Moniak is in right field.

     

    Astros – The Astros finished 17th in Defensive Runs Saved last season but have the capability to be better than that, given a roster of players with good track records (Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Alex Bregman). The thing to watch will be a potential trouble spot, the right side of their infield, in particular José Altuve, who has totaled a positional-worst -28 Runs Saved over the last 2 seasons.

     

    Athletics – The A’s best defensive player is shortstop Nick Allen, who has saved 9 Runs in a little over 1,300 innings at the position the last 2 seasons. If his bat keeps him on the field, he’s Oakland’s best shot at a Fielding Bible Award.

     

    Blue Jays – The Jays are basically running it back from last season, when they led the majors in Runs Saved. The only exception is third base where Isiah Kiner-Falefa is slated to be the primary replacement for Matt Chapman. IKF has a very good history at the position so if he plays (likely contingent on how he hits), the drop-off at that position might be very small and the Blue Jays could again contend to be the top defensive team.

     

    Guardians – The Guardians have 3 outfielders who are capable of winning a Fielding Bible Award. Left fielder Steven Kwan already has two. Myles Straw came close. And Ramón Laureano has a great history in right field in a little more than a season’s worth of innings. The Guardians, in the eyes of some, are MLB’s top defensive team entering the season.

     

    Mariners – The Mariners have a couple of players who have contended for or won Gold Gloves in the past but didn’t put up the best defensive numbers last season. We’re referring to first baseman Ty France and shortstop J.P. Crawford. For the Mariners to contend, it would help if they excelled at their respective spots.

     

    Orioles – The Orioles ranked tied for 6th in Defensive Runs Saved last season because they were basically average or better at every position. They’re capable of matching that with their current roster particularly because they have 2 defensive standouts, Ramón Urias and Jorge Mateo who can come in late in games if needed for youngsters Jordan Westburg at third base and top prospect Jackson Holliday at second base.

     

    Rangers – After looking great in the 2023 postseason, making several highlight-reel plays, Josh Jung could step up a level defensively. He may become one of the game’s elite defenders in 2024.

     

    Rays – Rays shortstops tied for the MLB lead with 19 Runs Saved last season. With Wander Franco in significant legal trouble and Taylor Walls injured, will new acquisition José Caballero perform at a high level? Caballero looked the part at both middle infield spots last season and he seems like a good fit on a team that typically maximizes the talent of its roster.

     

    Red Sox – There’s a lot to watch throughout the Red Sox outfield. They’ll have a new player standing in front of the Green Monster in left fielder Tyler O’Neill, who won the Fielding Bible Award at that position in 2020 and 2021. Rookie Ceddanne Rafaela will be the center fielder. Jarren Duran, who played mostly center field and left field the last two seasons, will now try right field. It will be interesting to see how all three mesh in Fenway Park.

     

    Royals – Bobby Witt Jr. was one of the most improved defensive players in MLB in 2023. Is he capable of making the jump to being one of the top shortstops by Defensive Runs Saved?

     

    Tigers – Tigers third basemen combined to have the worst Runs Saved total of any infield position. The addition of Gio Urshela should make things considerably better there. And we’ll see how things shake out with rookies Parker Meadows and Colt Keith and how well they fare at center field and second base.

     

    Twins – After a year away from center field, Byron Buxton is going to return to playing the position in 2024. When healthy, Buxton is as good as it gets in center field. But his injury history is a concern. The Twins are ready for potential issues though with Manuel Margot available to back up at multiple spots.

     

    White Sox – The White Sox ranked 29th in Runs Saved last season, so they have nowhere to go but up. Their weakest spots included right field, where for now they have newcomer Dominic Fletcher, and shortstop, which will be manned by Paul DeJong. They’ll also have a new catching tandem in Martín Maldonado and Max Stassi. Maldonado has something to prove after a career-worst -10 Runs Saved in 2023.

     

    Yankees – The Yankees’ outfield Runs Saved numbers last season were among the worst in MLB. How will that change in 2024? They’ve got two new acquisitions to acclimate in Alex Verdugo (typically a good defender) and Juan Soto (typically not as good), and they’re giving Aaron Judge another try in center field, where he’s rated basically as average in the past.

  • Stat of the Week: Updates on HR Robs, Pitcher Injuries, Arenado & More

    Stat of the Week: Updates on HR Robs, Pitcher Injuries, Arenado & More

    Photo: Rick Ulreich/Icon Sportswire

    As the MLB season nears an end there are a lot of things that we wrote about at some point this season that we’d like to update you on. But we only have so much space and so much time with which to work. 

    So rather than try to tell you a lot about one particular thing this week, let’s update you on 5 things that we either wrote about or frequently tweeted about from @sis_baseball this season.

    HR Robberies 

    The 2023 season has had more home run robberies than any season since we began tracking them in 2004. The current tally stands at 73, surpassing the previous mark of 69 set in 2019.

    The individual leaders in home run robberies are Mickey Moniak, Luis Robert Jr., Mike Trout, Cedric Mullins, and Kyle Tucker with 3 apiece. Angels outfielders have 10 home run robberies this season, the most by any team in any year since 2004. The 2005 Tigers had the previous mark with 9.  

    Pitchers Hit By Batted Balls 

    Earlier this season we addressed the number of pitchers being hit by comebackers, resulting in either the pitcher leaving the game or a considerable delay due to injury. 

    The count currently stands at 18 such incidents, an unusual and scary total given that there were 19 from 2020 to 2022 combined. The total number of pitchers hit with a batted ball, regardless of severity of injury, is comparable to the last two seasons – 169 in both 2022 and 2023 and 160 in 2021.

    Hitters Deserving A Better Fate 

    In April we wrote about how Starling Marte and Nick Gordon had been repeatedly denied hits by either good-looking defensive plays or plays that may have been tougher than they looked. 

    Both Gordon and Marte got injured and neither rated among the players most thwarted by defenses in 2023.
    It looks like the best-defensed hitter this season is going to be Lourdes Gurriel Jr. of the Diamondbacks. Opposing defenses have recorded 21 Runs Saved against Gurriel this season. He’s followed by Alec Bohm and Steven Kwan (18 Runs Saved against them).

    Another way of looking at it: the hitter with the most “Good Fielding Plays” against him specific to plays that took away hits is José Ramírez with 21. 

    Nolan Arenado

    Perennial Gold Glove and 5-time Fielding Bible Award winner Nolan Arenado had a disappointing 2023 season as far as his defensive stats went. He spent most of the year with a negative Defensive Runs Saved. 

    But Arenado has looked better of late. After heading into the All-Star Break with -4 Runs Saved, Arenado has since saved 5. With 1 Run Saved, Arenado is not likely to contend for a Fielding Bible Award this season, but he’s shown that he still has some of the skills that made his metrics so good. 

    NPB’s Top Defensive Team 

    You may have noticed us regularly tweeting about Japanese baseball in the latter part of the year as we noticed there’s an avid following and not a lot of defensive data accessible for NPB fans.

    With that in mind, we can tell you that the best defensive team you don’t know about is the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. The Tigers, who won the Central League title for the first time since 2005, currently have 29 Runs Saved and have a comfortable advantage in Defensive Runs Saved over the next-closest NPB team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, who have 6. 

    NPB out probabilities are created from the same basis we use for MLB ones. Most NPB team totals are either negative or slightly positive. Hanshin has been the exception.

    Hanshin’s top defensive players are catcher Seishiro Sakamoto (T-1st among C in Runs Saved), second baseman Takumu Nakano (2nd, 2B), center fielder Koji Chikamoto (T-1st, CF), right fielder Shota Morishita (T-4th, RF), and pitcher Koutaro Ohtake (1st, P). 

    Sakamoto in particular is considerably popular among fans because of his pitch-framing skill. (we’ve heard from many on social media). Hanshin pitchers are 49-19 with a 2.12 ERA this season when Sakamoto catches.

  • 2023 MLB Defensive Preview: American League

    2023 MLB Defensive Preview: American League

    BY MARK SIMON

    With Opening Day approaching, we wanted to preview the 2023 season from a defensive perspective. So to be fair to all 30 teams, we’ve got a stat-driven theme or story to watch for each team. We’ll do the AL teams this week, the NL next week.

    Angels – The Angels have a good defensive group for use at the end of games in catcher Max Stassi (one of the best pitch framers in MLB), infielder Gio Urshela, and outfielder Brett Phillips (as good as it gets on a per-inning basis in right field). The question becomes whether they’ll have enough leads at the end of games to make a full-scale deployment of those defensive resources relevant.

    Astros – The Astros led MLB in Defensive Runs Saved from their outfielders last season and should again be up among the leaders in 2023. With shifts out of the picture, we’re curious how the infield will fare, particularly on the right side with 36-year-old first baseman José Abreu and (currently injured) second baseman José Altuve. The latter ranked last in Runs Saved by a second baseman last season.

    Athletics – If Nick Allen can hit enough to stay in the lineup look out. He might be a dark horse for a Fielding Bible Award. He saved 6 Runs in ~500 innings at shortstop in 2022.

    Blue Jays – If every “if” goes their way, the Blue Jays could have the best defensive team in MLB. Those “ifs” center around second baseman Whit Merrifield, third baseman Matt Chapman, and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. If each can defy age and play to the capabilities of their past Fielding Bible Award-winning seasons, Toronto will have highlight shows on defense almost every night.

    Guardians – The Guardians could also be the best defensive team in baseball. They return two 2022 Fielding Bible Award winners in left fielder Steven Kwan and center fielder Myles Straw, and a runner-up, second baseman Andrés Giménez.

    Mariners – We previously wrote about Julio Rodríguez and how he’s shown the potential to be a great defender, so long as he doesn’t overtax his body (he ranked 6th in sliding, diving, and jumping catches for outfielders in 2022). We look forward to seeing what he looks like in 2023

    Orioles – Just how good are Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson? Rutschman ranked second among catchers in Defensive Runs Saved in 2022 and easily led catchers in DRS after the All-Star Break. He could be a Fielding Bible Award winner for years to come. Henderson could play shortstop or third base. His minor league numbers indicate he’s a better fit at third.

    Rangers – Can the Rangers provide the defensive support needed behind a starting rotation that has been remade from 1-to-5 the last two years? The Rangers should be solid at second base (Marcus Semien), right field (Adolis García) and catcher (Jonah Heim) but have regulars who rate below average at first base (Nathaniel Lowe) and shortstop (Corey Seager). 

    Rays – Left fielder Randy Arozarena was an impactful defender as a rookie in 2021 (7 Runs Saved), less so in 2022 (-4). Do any vibes from his play in the World Baseball Classic carry over to Tampa Bay for 2023?

    Red Sox – Andrea Arcidipane nailed it on the latest SIS Baseball Podcast – Adam Duvall playing center field full time at age 34, with half his games in Fenway Park, will be an interesting challenge. To his credit, Duvall has 4 Runs Saved in ~600 career innings in center, so the move could turn out alright.

    Royals – Bobby Witt Jr. ranked last among shortstops in Runs Saved last season. Will he make the adjustments needed in Year 2 or is a position switch to third base in his future?

    Tigers – Javier Báez’s defense disappointed big time in what was a miserable season for the Tigers. His -4 Runs Saved at shortstop were a career worst. Is he capable of returning to the form he had in 2020 and 2021, when he combined for 9 Runs Saved there?

    Twins – We have to ask, right? How healthy is Carlos Correa and is he capable of returning to the level of play that netted him a Fielding Bible Award and a Platinum Glove in 2021? Correa had potential deals with the Giants and Mets snuffed by injury concerns. We’ll see how he holds up with Minnesota.

    White Sox – New manager Pedro Grifol has promised better attention to detail all around in 2023. So we’re looking for that on the defensive end. The White Sox need it. They ranked T-26th in Defensive Runs Saved last season and didn’t get positive Runs Saved from any position on the field. They’ll shift some parts around, with Andrew Vaughn moving to first base full-time and Elvis Andrus playing second base for the first time as an MLB player.

    Yankees – What can they do for an encore? The Yankees led MLB in Runs Saved in 2022 and it wasn’t close. They return almost the same position player roster that they had last season, so they should still be very good. No team has led the majors in Runs Saved in back-to-back seasons.

  • Stat of the Week: The Angels Are Looking Good

    Stat of the Week: The Angels Are Looking Good

    It’s only 20 games, but the Los Angeles Angels look like a completely different team from last season’s squad in a couple of important areas.

    For one thing, take a look at their chase rate (best known as O-Swing% on FanGraphs). In 2021, the Angels’ chase rate of 33% ranked 25th. To this point in 2022, they rank second-lowest at 26%.

    This can be explained by a few things. For one, two of the team’s most discerning hitters – Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon – are healthy. They’re each at 21%.

    For another, the team’s top chaser among its regulars in 2021, José Iglesias, is now in Colorado. And one other note: a couple of hitters, most notably Taylor Ward, have shown a little more patience than usual within a small sampling of at-bats this season.

    Ward’s chase rate is 20%. His rate last season was 29%. He’s been a big contributor, with a .509 on-base percentage in 53 plate appearances. His 1.271 OPS is 16 points higher than Trout’s. Outfielder Jo Adell’s chase rate is 34%. It was 40% in 2021.

    The reduction in chasing seems to have translated into positive results. The Angels rank first in the American League in batting average (.253), on-base percentage (.333) and slugging percentage (.428). They ranked 6th, 9th, and 7th in those stats, respectively, last season.

    The Angels also have shown themselves to be a good defensive team in 2022. They rank 3rd in the majors in how often they turn a groundball or bunt into an out (nearly 81% of the time) and 5th in how often they turn a ball hit in the air into an out (just over 71% of the time).

    In 2021, they ranked 27th in both out rate on grounders and bunts (72%) and out rate on balls hit in the air (65%).

    What’s noteworthy here is that the Angels plan to move David Fletcher to shortstop was thwarted when Fletcher went out with a hip injury after playing five games.

    Fletcher’s replacement, Andrew Velazquez, hasn’t hit well at all. But he’s been excellent in the field, recording 5 Good Fielding Plays, tied for the most among shortstops.

    We don’t generally advise using 14-game samples as meaningful evaluations, but Velazquez has played good defense at shortstop throughout his career, saving 9 runs in not even a half-season (476 innings).

    Pitching-wise, the Angels’ numbers look considerably better than last season’s, but admittedly, the numbers look better for just about every team. The Angels currently rank 11th in the AL in FIP, after ranking 8th in that stat last season.

    But there have been some bright spots, most notably Patrick Sandoval, who has not allowed an earned run and has 20 strikeouts in 15 innings. Newcomers Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen also have ERAs under 3.00 thus far. Four of the team’s five most-used relievers have ERAs under 2.00.

    The team’s looked better at the plate and better in the field, and has some bright spots on the pitching staff, but perhaps the best thing that could be said about the Angels start is this:

    The Angels are 13-7 and we didn’t even mention Shohei Ohtani (.691 OPS, 4.19 ERA) until the next-to-last sentence of this article.

    What will the team be like once he gets going?

  • Why Move Mike Trout Off CF? Let’s Look at the Numbers

    Why Move Mike Trout Off CF? Let’s Look at the Numbers

    Why would the Angels want to move Mike Trout off center field?

    It’s likely a simple matter of statistics. Catches like the one above have been the exception rather than the rule.

    Over the last two seasons, Trout ranks 32nd in Defensive Runs Saved per 1,000 innings in center field. That’s out of the 35 players with the most innings played there in that time.

    It goes back farther than that. Trout has posted a negative Defensive Runs Saved total in each of the last three seasons and four of the last five seasons.

    Yes, he does have a 21-Runs Saved season to his credit … in 2012. Since then, he’s cost the Angels 24 runs with his defense, per our measures.

    Trout doesn’t have any statistical strengths on defense anymore. He ranks a little below-average on shallow, medium, and deep fly balls over the last two seasons (though in Trout’s defense, he was slighly above-average on deep balls in his brief stint last season). That adds up.

    And he ranks below-average in throwing. Since 2020, he’s allowed 42 of 61 runners to advance an extra base on balls he’s fielded. That’s a 69% advance rate allowed compared to an average rate of 54% for center fielders last season.

    Getting back to Trout’s range, we have numbers that can show that Trout isn’t what he once was in center field. We can compare his 2020-21 out rates to those he had in 2018, his last season with a positive Defensive Runs Saved.

    Depth 2018 2020-21
    Shallow 58% 48% (88 plays)
    Medium 87% 78% (99 plays)
    Deep 82% 73% (67 plays)

    Trout isn’t making high-value plays and has missed some balls he should have caught.

    Over the last two seasons, he has 5 catches on balls that had an out probability of less than or equal to 30% and missed 14 plays on which the out probability was 70%.

    Here ‘s one example of the latter:

    Comparing ratios of other players with similar innings totals the last two seasons:

    Plays Made/Missed by Out Probability (2020-21)

    0-30% Plays Made >=70% Plays Missed
    Mike Trout 5 14
    Guillermo Heredia 6 6
    Kike Hernandez 5 3

    Worth pointing out: Trout has ranked last and next-to-last in the reaction component of Statcast’s Jump stat the last 2 seasons.

    On average, he’s about 2 feet short of where he should be within the first 1.5 seconds of a ball being hit.

    Trout’s potential replacement in center field, at least for the short term would be Brandon Marsh. He totaled -3 Runs Saved in 70 games there last season. Jo Adell’s experience in center field, both in the majors and minors, is minimal, though his elite speed could come in handy if they were to give him a try.

    That neither player is necessarily a standout would be one reason to keep things as-is.

    The other option the Angels would have if they don’t want to move Trout to left field is to tinker with his positioning. (Per Statcast) Trout played an average of 6 feet shallower at home in 2018 (318 feet) than he did in 2020 and 2021 (324 feet).

    That would seem like the most logical outcome here given Trout’s reluctance to switch positions. What we seem to have here is a case of the numbers indicating one thing, but player comfort pointing in another direction. Such is the push-and-pull an MLB manager has to deal with both in trying to win and keep his players happy.

    The Angels may move Trout around in the outfield – but only within the boundaries of his original position.

  • 2021 MLB Previews: AL West Defenses

    By MARK SIMON

    Leading up to Opening Day, we’re going to preview all 30 MLB teams and how they could fare defensively in 2021.

    Hitting and pitching are easy to evaluate when previewing a season. Defense is a little harder because of the nature of the numbers available to assess a player’s skill.

    But that sort of thing is our specialty and we’re happy to take our best shot at it.

    Today’s look is at the AL West.

    Angels

    Greatest strengths: Second Base, Third Base

    Biggest Weakness: The Outfield

    The Angels have had problems with run prevention lately which is problematic for a team hoping to contend in the AL West.

    Let’s start with what’s good first. David Fletcher should land at second base full time this season and if he does play the whole year there, he could contend for a Fielding Bible Award. Fletcher has 13 career Runs Saved in the equivalent of a little more than a half-season there over the last three years.

    Fletcher is there because José Iglesias is at shortstop, replacing Andrelton Simmons. Iglesias is up and down. He’s had three seasons saving at least 5 runs and two seasons costing his team 5 runs at shortstop. More of a sure thing is Anthony Rendon at third base, where he’s saved at least 9 runs three times, which makes you think his -1 last season was a small-sample aberration.

    But the quality at these spots (and at catcher with Max Stassi) is hindered by the problems in the outfield. In the last two seasons, Justin Upton cost the Angels 17 runs in left field, Mike Trout cost them 13 runs in center field, and new acquisition Dexter Fowler cost the Cardinals 9 runs in right field.

    Of those, Trout has the most upside, but he’s had five seasons with a negative Runs Saved in the eight years since his 21-Runs Saved season in 2012. Jo Adell could also provide a spark, though he cost the Angels 5 runs in right field last season too. Backup Juan Lagares has previously been a defensive star, but he can’t play all three spots at once.

    Astros

    Greatest strengths: Shortstop

    Biggest Weakness: None

    The Astros could be an excellent defensive team this season, particularly if the unknowns among their regulars, Myles Straw and Kyle Tucker, handle the outfield well.

    Carlos Correa is now well established as a standout shortstop. He’s saved 37 runs the last five seasons, which ranks fifth among shortstops. First baseman Yuli Gurriel (9 Runs Saved the last two seasons and third baseman Alex Bregman (14 Runs Saved the last three) are standouts as well. José Altuve might be the weakest link, but he grades out about average the last five seasons by Defensive Runs Saved.

    Tucker’s numbers in right are good (6 career Runs Saved), but keep in mind that it’s only 21 games and not enough sample to render a verdict. Straw comes out slightly above average in sum in a little more than 300 career innings in the outfield. Veteran Michael Brantley has a consistent history in left field.

    Behind the plate, Martín Maldonado has a terrific reputation and the numbers, back that up (averaging 8 Runs Saved over the last five seasons). And on the mound, the Astros have one pitcher who is among the best fielders in recent memory in Zack Greinke.

    If things go right, the Astros could be the best defensive team in the AL and challenge the Cardinals for best in baseball.

    Athletics

    Greatest strengths: Third Base, First Base, Center Field

    Biggest Weakness: Middle infield

    The Athletics have the best corner infield defense by far with Matt Chapman at third and Matt Olson at first. Neither put up big numbers last season (Chapman got hurt and played only 36 games) but there’s nothing to indicate any issues in their performance.

    Center fielder Ramón Laureano could make a case for having the strongest outfield arm. In 2020, he eliminated a weakness from his game (handling deep fly balls) that resulted in his Defensive Runs Saved improving from -8 to 5. He could contend for a Fielding Bible Award if those improvements hold for 162 games.

    Middle infield defense could be a weak spot for the Athletics though. Tony Kemp is expected to be their second baseman. He cost them six runs there last season, though he rated as average by Defensive Runs Saved in 55 games prior to that. New shortstop Elvis Andrus cost the Rangers 12 runs the last two years. His history indicates a mix of good and bad seasons with the latter coming more recently.

    One edge the A’s have is a utility man with solid defensive value, Chad Pinder. Pinder’s value is greatest in the outfield (he has 14 career Runs Saved in left field and 7 in right) but he can also play any other position on the field save catcher and at least be adequate.

    Mariners

    Greatest strengths: First Base, Shortstop, Right Field

    Biggest Weakness: Backup catcher

    You don’t have to make a huge leap to believe that the Mariners are a very good defensive team. First baseman Evan White tied for the MLB lead by saving 7 runs with his defense last season. Shortstop J.P. Crawford ranked tied for third at the position with 6 Runs Saved.

    Two defensive keys are making MLB returns. Mitch Haniger comes back to right field after missing all of 2020 due to injury. That’s where he saved 24 runs in the equivalent of about two full seasons of playing time from 2017 to 2019. Catcher Tom Murphy saved 7 runs as a part-time player in 2019.

    And the concerns are not significant ones. Kyle Lewis graded out about average in center field last season but showed a flare for the spectacular play. Third baseman Kyle Seager’s numbers last season were a little below average and below his norm. But he’s rated as among the most reliable throwing arms in MLB and averaged 4 Runs Saved per season from 2017 to 2019.

    The player who has the biggest defensive concerns is a backup, catcher Luis Torrens, who has cost his teams 15 runs in a little more than 500 career innings behind the plate. But if your biggest worry is a backup catcher, you’re probably doing alright. Other than that, we’ll see how Taylor Trammell and Jarred Kelenic fare in MLB. We don’t have enough minor league info on them to make a guess at how they’ll do.

    Rangers

    Greatest strengths: Right Field, Center Field, Shortstop

    Biggest Weakness: Second Base

    The Rangers have the potential for a very good defensive outfield. Joey Gallo saved an MLB-high 13 runs in right field last season with a good glove and a strong arm and the early returns on Leody Taveras (6 Runs Saved in 33 games) were positive.

    But this is a team that is a puzzle in the infield. Ronald Guzmán regularly rates average at first base. He’s the only one on the infield for whom there aren’t questions. At second base, Nick Solak has cost the Rangers five runs in just under 200 innings, but he’s going to be given a chance there. Their usual second baseman, Rougned Odor, is expected to shift to third base, where he’s never played in his pro career.

    That leaves now-shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Kiner-Falefa had a breakthrough at the plate last season, as his bat caught up to his excellent glove at third base. He’s saved 17 runs in three seasons at the hot corner for the Rangers, a good enough showing that Texas thinks he can replace Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Kiner-Falefa does have 4 Runs Saved in 17 career games at shortstop, so assessing him as a standout there doesn’t seem like a reach.

  • New baseball podcast: José Mota on the interesting Angels

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by longtime Angels broadcaster José Mota (@JoseMota05) to preview the upcoming season.

    Mota provides perspective on what to watch for from several Angels key players, giving insight on how Mike Trout works at-bats (1:30), explaining what Anthony Rendon will bring (4:36), sharing what Andrelton Simmons does that makes him a special defender (5:55), and providing insight on why David Fletcher is a hidden gem (8:51).

    José also talks about what it’s been like to watch (and learn Japanese from) Shohei Ohtani and Saya Nomura – check out Jose’s Instagram for more of that – (10:20) and explains how Albert Pujols could still be valuable (13:05).He also discusses how Joe Maddon will handle the pitching staff (15:02), how he delivers analytics to a Spanish-speaking audience (16:44), how he feels about the inevitable decline of pinch-hitter usage (his father Manny was an all-time great pinch-hitter) and how teams will strategize with the new rules in place for this season (19:25). Finally, he also tells of his family’s charity work, which can be found at Motasfaces.com. (21:55)

    And yes, we know we didn’t even get to Jo Adell! Thanks for listening. Don’t forget to rate and review. Stay well and stay safe.

  • Who were the top performing defensive rookies in 2018?

    Who were the top performing defensive rookies in 2018?

    By MARK SIMON

    Who were the top defensive rookies in 2018?

    No. 1 in the majors isn’t hard to figure out if you’ve been paying close attention this season. We’ve lauded Cardinals outfielder Harrison Bader for his performance throughout the year. He led all rookies with 19 Defensive Runs Saved, only two runs off the overall lead for outfielders.

    Bader didn’t win a Gold Glove, but finished runner-up to Javier Baez for the Multi-Position Fielding Bible Award. He excelled with his range and his hustle in both center and right field. The Cardinals positioned him deeper than others, likely because Bader’s strength is coming in on the ball, which the numbers bore out.

    The next four rookies ranked by Defensive Runs Saved are American Leaguers. In fact, the next two both play for the Kansas City Royals.

    Little went right for the Royals in 2018, but the defensive play of Brett Phillips and Rosell Herrera were bright spots. Phillips was obtained in the trade for Mike Moustakas in late July after playing 15 games (and saving two runs) for the Brewers. Phillips had saved eight runs in a little over 200 innings for the Brewers a year ago. He topped that in 2018, with 10 Defensive Runs Saved in 272 innings for the Royals.

    In all, Phillips has saved 20 runs in only 527 career innings. By comparison, Phillips’ former teammate, Lorenzo Cain, had 20 DRS in 1180 innings this season. Phillips’ strengths are in both his range and his arm. He can come flying in to make a diving catch or go back and rob a home run. He also had six unaided assists (without a cutoff man) as a center fielder the last two seasons, giving him five Runs Saved with his arm. If he can improve on his .187/.252/.306 slash line from 2018, he could be a player to watch and a sleeper candidate to win a Fielding Bible Award in 2019.

    The 26-year-old Herrera was another midseason pickup (off waivers from the Reds in June) whose glove far outvalues his bat. In his debut season, he saved 10 runs in more than 500 innings, with those runs split almost entirely between second base and right field. (He cost his team three runs in five games at third base.) He was well-positioned at second, allowing him to make a few plays in the first base-second base hole that others wouldn’t. His time in right field included robbing a home run from Alex Bregman, one of a few balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark that were well-handled by Herrera.

    Another player in a similar mold is Angels infielder David Fletcher, who totaled eight DRS, primarily split between second base and third base. He had solid range ratings at both second and third base and was strong in turning the double play at second, converting 32 of 39 opportunities (82 percent – MLB average is 66 percent). Fletcher’s greatest strength at third base was in fielding balls hit down the line, ranking tied for fourth best at converting balls hit there into outs.

    Two other players warrant special mention. Rangers utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa came to the majors with a well-polished defensive game. That was evident when he was at third base and second base, where he totaled nine DRS in a little more than 500 innings.

    But Kiner-Falefa doesn’t show up on the leaderboard because of his troubles playing catcher. In just over 300 innings, he cost the Rangers seven runs with framing and three runs with pitch blocking. If Kiner-Falefa mans the hot corner or second base regularly in 2019, you’ll probably see and hear more from him.

    Another is Joey Wendle, who finished with five Defensive Runs Saved, but was invaluable in the Rays’ frequent shifting, which isn’t a part of the basic Runs Saved calculation for players. As we documented at The Athletic earlier this season, Wendle’s skill at making throws from any angle made him a potent performer in the field, whether he was playing at second, shortstop, third or left field. He finished third in our Multi-Position voting for the Fielding Bible Awards. With Wendle at second and Kevin Kiermaier in center field, the Rays have a great up-the-middle defensive foundation moving forward.

    Among the Rookie of the Year candidates, Braves outfielderRonald Acuña Jr. finished with four DRS, though he finished at -2 in his primary position, left field. The issue with Acuna wasn’t range and positioning (he totaled six Runs Saved at that), but his arm, which cost his team three runs due to his poor rate of deterring baserunner advancement.

    Nationals outfielder Juan Soto saved two runs with his arm, but made many other mistakes throughout the season. He cost his team five runs in the field.

    In the AL, Yankees infielder Gleyber Torres had good early-season numbers, but ended up costing his team a run in non-shift situations (we note that because his performance was strong in shifts, which don’t count within Defensive Runs Saved). If Miguel Andujar wins Rookie of the Year, it will be in spite of his defense. His -25 DRS were the worst of any infielder. Angels P/DH Shohei Ohtani graded league-average in his 10 games as a pitcher, as did Dodgers starter Walker Buehler.