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  • Which QBs received the most/least help from receivers on completions?

    By John Shirley

    Here at Sports Info Solutions our video scouts chart many things within each NFL game, including multiple in-depth data points pertaining to quarterback accuracy. Our in-depth quarterback accuracy is charted on three scales: 

    • Whether the pass was Completed 
    • Whether the pass was Catchable 
    • Whether the pass was On-Target (Includes throws that are over/under thrown and ones that are in-front/behind the receiver)

    While all three measure a similar concept, by differentiating them, we can begin to separate the value between quarterback and receiver. By comparing completion percentages on throws that were deemed Catchable but Off-Target, we can look at which quarterbacks were bailed out the most by their receivers. These throws, which are Catchable but Off-Target, are ones in which the receiver has a chance to make the catch but would require significant adjustment to complete the catch. In essence, think diving or leaping catches that you would see in highlight reels.

    The list of quarterbacks who were bailed out by their receivers the most features the faces of this year’s free agency class and Giants rookie Daniel Jones.

    PlayerTeamAttemptsComp%
    Philip RiversChargers4459%
    Drew BreesSaints2157%
    Jameis WinstonBuccaneers3450%
    Daniel JonesGiants2148%
    Tom BradyPatriots5347%

    New Colts quarterback Philip Rivers was helped quite a bit by his receiving core in Los Angeles last year, as he led the league in Off-Target Completion% with 59%. This does not bode well for him in Indianapolis, as he will be without trusted receivers Keenan Allen (8/13 on Off-Target Throws), Mike Williams (4/8), and Hunter Henry (4/8) to help him out on off-target passes. Also, last year, the Colts ranked only 18th in Off-Target Completion% at 37%.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum are the quarterbacks who were rarely bailed out by their receivers. 

    PlayerTeamAttemptsComp%
    Aaron RodgersPackers3727%
    Andy DaltonBengals3727%
    Dak PrescottCowboys4524%
    Deshaun WatsonTexans1724%
    Baker MayfieldBrowns3222%
    Gardner MinshewJaguars4020%

    Jaguars rookie, Gardner Minshew, ranked last among the 32 quarterbacks who threw at least 15 passes that were deemed Catchable and Off-Target. He received little help from his number one option DJ Chark (2/11 on Catchable Off-Target passes) and running back Leonard Fournette (1/6). 

    Analysis such as this is a simple way to see which quarterbacks were helped quite a bit by their receivers and which were not. This also shines a light on why metrics such as On-Target% are better barometers of success for quarterbacks than Completion%. Completion% is not a bad metric, but it is a simple one that can lead to the wrong conclusion of how accurate a quarterback is.

    As shown above by analyzing Off-Target Completion%, completions and incompletions are not always on the quarterback.

  • Which QB is best at throwing the intermediate pass?

    We’ve been writing about quarterbacks and long passes and receivers and long passes recently, so this week, we’re taking a look at another type of QB throw.

    By Kyle Rodemann

    Watching your team complete a 15-yard pass on 2nd-and-10 feels pretty good. The drive continues, the QB is looking sharp, and the chance to score increases. While most quarterbacks can make these kinds of throws in their sleep, some excel in certain categories when it comes to “intermediate passes.” This article will look into which QBs have excelled at these throws so far during the 2019 NFL season.

    For our purposes, intermediate passes are balls that are thrown between 11 and 19 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

     Most Attempts

    Some quarterbacks prefer to throw the deep ball, while others like to game manage and throw the ball closer to the line of scrimmage. Other QBs have the weapons and tools to attack defenses in the middle of the field, in-between the linebackers and the safeties.

    Below is a table that displays which current starting quarterbacks have thrown the intermediate pass the most:

    Quarterback Number of Throws
    Jameis Winston 95
    Jared Goff 95
    Philip Rivers 94
    Matt Ryan 71
    Dak Prescott 68
    Kyle Allen 67
    Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz 66

    Andy Dalton also belongs on this list, with 83 intermediate passes, but has been removed since he no longer starts in the NFL.

    If there is one thing that all these quarterbacks have in common, besides their ability to attack the middle of the field, it’s the fact that they each have specific receivers that are chain-movers. The top three passers in this list enjoy throwing the ball to: Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, and Keenan Allen, respectively. With talent like that to throw to, it’s no wonder these QBs throw the intermediate ball so often.

    Most Accurate

    Just because a QB throws the intermediate pass the most, doesn’t necessarily mean they are the most accurate on those attempts. That’s a spoiler for this next table that looks at the highest Catchable Throw Percentage among QBs who throw the ball 11 to 19 yards down the field.

    Check out the table below:

    Quarterback Catchable Throw %
    Dak Prescott 85% (58 of 68)
    Aaron Rodgers 82% (37 of 45)
    Derek Carr 81% (39 of 48)
    Josh Allen 77% (46 of 60)
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 75% (35 of 47)
    Jimmy Garoppolo 74% (46 of 62)
    Matt Ryan 73% (52 of 71)

    Jameis Winston, leading the league in these pass attempts, doesn’t even make an appearance on this list. In fact, Winston is throwing an accurate ball on 72% of his intermediate throws, just missing the cut behind Matt Ryan’s 73%.

    One surprise on this list is Josh Allen, who was seen as an inaccurate QB during his rookie season last year. Cole Beasley sure makes a difference and helped raise Allen’s Catchable Throw Percentage from 63% last season to 77% this season.

    Highest IQR

    “Independent Quarterback Rating” is a metric that removes blame on the quarterback when he does not deserve it. This means that when a pass is dropped, he will not be blamed and his IQR will be boosted. On the other hand, if an interception is dropped, he will be blamed and his IQR will take a hit.

    The table below shows the highest IQR among QBs for intermediate passes:

    Quarterback IQR
    Derek Carr 135.8
    Lamar Jackson 133.4
    Patrick Mahomes 128.5
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 123.8
    Kirk Cousins 121.9
    Aaron Rodgers 118.6
    Drew Brees 114.3

    Derek Carr tops the list of QBs in IQR on intermediate passes. He has been very accurate (81% Catchable Pass Percentage as seen above) and has made few mistakes (1 interception). Ryan Fitzpatrick makes his second appearance in this article with an impressive IQR of 123.8.

     Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the ball between 11 and 19 yards down the field. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as explained by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped their team win the most while throwing the intermediate pass.

     Check out the league leaders below:

    Quarterback Points Earned
    Dak Prescott 35.9
    Philip Rivers 35.5
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 29.7
    Derek Carr 27.9
    Jameis Winston 26.7
    Carson Wentz 25.1
    Patrick Mahomes 25.0

     Prescott has added the most when throwing the intermediate pass. This is his third appearance in this article, making him one of the best passers in the league at throwing the ball 11 to 19 yards downfield. Fitzpatrick and Carr, two QBs who are seen as lower-end starters, also show their value when throwing this type of pass.

    Conclusion

    The intermediate pass is not always easy. It often comes with throwing over the linebacker and in front of the safety. Not all QBs are great at these passes. Prescott, Carr, and Fitzpatrick are three quarterbacks who excel at these throws. Look for these successful passers to continue attacking the middle of the field, targeting their talented receivers to help move the chains.

  • Top prop bet picks for Chargers-Raiders

    By Steve Schwartz

    Week 10 begins with an AFC West battle between the Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) and the Oakland Raiders (4-4). The Chargers were expected to challenge for the division title before injuries to the defense derailed them but have won two straight as that same defense has held Chicago and Green Bay to a combined 27 points.

    Props are evaluated using SISBets.com – our overall record is 18-10, including 4-0,  3-1, and 3-1 the last three weeks. Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Tyrell Williams, under 3.5 receptions, under -114

    It’s been seven weeks since Tyrell Williams has caught more than three balls in a game. And since the start of 2018 he’s cracked four receptions in just five of 21 regular season games. He’ll face his old team, the Chargers, who are stingy with pass receptions having yielded just 20 completions per game which ranks 7th-lowest in the NFL. The addition of running back Josh Jacobs has made the Oakland offense much more balanced and receivers (other than tight end Darren Waller) have seen fewer opportunities. SIS data says Williams makes 2.5 catches and should be -313, but we only have to give -114.

    2) Austin Ekeler, under 4.5 receptions, under -112

    Since the return of Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has been trying to carve out a niche. In the first game he caught 15 balls, but since has averaged just four receptions per game. He’s also barely been part of the running game (though he had 12 carries last week). SISdata analysis puts Ekeler with 4.7 targets and 3.5 receptions which makes ‘under’ fair market value at -264, but the line is -112.

    3) Mike Williams, under 4.5 receptions, under -141

    Mike Williams has caught more than 4.5 balls in just two of eight games this season and just three times in 16 times last season. SIS data predicts 6.1 targets and 3.8 receptions, therefore -201 is fair market and the current number is -141.

    4) Philip Rivers, under 23.5 completions, under -118

    The Chargers have won their last two games without much production from Rivers. He’s thrown just 57 passes and completed 40 in wins over Chicago and Green Bay. In fact, he completes just 22.3 passes in wins this season and 26.8 completions in five losses this season. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites Thursday night. Our analysis shows he will throw 34 passes and complete 22. of them making the under value at -164 while the current odds are -118.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Philip Rivers, 1.5, over -157/under +125

    Derek Carr, 1.5, over -112/under -112

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Philip Rivers, 0.5, over -108/under -115

    Derek Carr, 0.5, over -106/under -118

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Philip Rivers, 23.5 completions, over -106/under -118

    Derek Carr, 21.5 completions, over -121/under -104

     

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    ————————–

    Chargers-

    Melvin Gordon -106
    Keenan Allen +120
    Hunter Henry +125
    Austin Ekeler +165
    Mike Williams +190
    Andre Patton +800
    Virgil Green +1050
    Justin Jackson +1500

    Philip Rivers                    +2200

     

     

    Raiders –

    Josh Jacobs -125
    Darren Waller +150
    Tyrell Williams +200
    Hunter Renfrow +260
    Foster Moreau +325
    Zay Jones +450
    Jalen Richard +650
    Derek Carr +1100
     

     

    		  
       
       

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Chargers –

    Keenan Allen, 5.5, over -109/under -114

    Hunter Henry, 5.5, over +114/under -141

    Austin Ekeler, 4.5, over -112/under -112

    Mike Williams, 4.5, over +114/under -141

    Melvin Gordon, 2.5, over -125/under +101

     

    Raiders –

    Darren Waller, 4.5, over -141/under +114

    Tyrell Williams, 3.5, over -109/under -114

     

     

  • Go Long! The Best Deep Passers In 2018

    For more stats like the ones in this article, sign up for a free trial of the SISDataHub by clicking here

    By Jon Becker

    There are plenty of exciting things to observe during a game of football: long runs for touchdowns, long interception returns, and long field goal kicks, just to name a few. Seeing strength and stamina get pushed to its limits is fun! And so, I thought it’d be fun to revisit my colleague Mark Simon’s post from December on which quarterbacks performed the best on long passes, with the new season soon to come.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    Who attempted the long pass the most?

    As you’d expect, the leader was walking highlight reel and reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, who attempted 82 such passes. He didn’t lead by all that much, though, with Aaron Rodgers (78) of the Green Bay Packers and Ben Roethlisberger (77) of the Pittsburgh Steelers close behind. Here’s the top 10:

    Patrick Mahomes82
    Aaron Rodgers78
    Ben Roethlisberger77
    Andrew Luck67
    Baker Mayfield66
    Matt Ryan65
    Eli Manning64
    Mitchell Trubisky64
    Case Keenum64
    Russell Wilson61

    Who’s the most successful with them?

    It takes a ton of arm strength to throw the long pass consistently; it might take even more precision to be successful with it consistently. 31 quarterbacks attempted at least 30 deep passes, but only 11 of them were at at least 40%–it’s obviously quite a bit harder to complete a long pass than a short one! The ageless New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (52%) was the only field general to have more completions than incompletions on the deep ball. Here’s the top 10 of those 31 with at least 30 attempts:

    Drew Brees52.0%
    Russell Wilson47.5%
    Jared Goff47.5%
    Patrick Mahomes42.7%
    Derek Carr42.3%
    Eli Manning42.2%
    Andrew Luck41.8%
    Deshaun Watson41.8%
    Matt Ryan41.5%
    Philip Rivers40.7%

    Who was at the bottom of this list? The three with the lowest completion percentage on deep balls were Cam Newton (23.5%), Sam Darnold (23.6%) and Joe Flacco (25%).

    Who threw the most catchable deep balls?

    Our Video Scouts evaluate whether passes are thrown on-target. The leaderboard is similar to the completion percentage leaderboard with a few exceptions. Drew Brees (66%) and Jared Goff (64%) rank 1-2. Philip Rivers, who ranked No. 10 in completion percentage, moves to No. 3 in throwing catchable balls (63%). Case Keenum of the Washington Redskins, who ranked No. 18 in completion percentage, slots in at No. 4 (59%). Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan (59%) are No. 5 and 6.

    Who Went The Deepest on Average?

    In our closest competition yet, Prescott just barely edged out Roethlisberger in most yards per deep completion last season. Prescott averaged 41.67 yards per completion, whereas Roethlisberger was at 41.63 yards. Not far behind were Ryan Tannehill (39 Y/C) and Carson Wentz (38 Y/C).

    Who Got the Best Results?

    Roethlisberger narrowly missed being atop a couple of the above leaderboards, but he leads in perhaps the most important: touchdowns. Roethlisberger was alone at the top of the list with 11 touchdowns on deep passes, with Mahomes and Wilson one behind him. Roethlisberger did have three interceptions on such attempts, though; the only QB with a perfect ratio and at least 30 deep pass attempts was Rodgers, whose 8 touchdowns came without an interception.

    Who Was Best Overall?

    Roethlisberger would be a good choice, as would Mahomes or Rodgers. But our Total Points metric determines that Wilson was, in fact, the most valuable passer on deep balls. Here’s our Alex Vigderman explaining Total Points for QBs:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    Here’s every quarterback with a positive Points Earned on deep passes. Notice Big Ben’s placement:

    Russell Wilson35.2
    Patrick Mahomes33.5
    Aaron Rodgers31.8
    Drew Brees24.5
    Matt Ryan22.3
    Philip Rivers20.6
    Baker Mayfield19.2
    Matthew Stafford18.9
    Andrew Luck18.2
    Jared Goff16.8
    Eli Manning16.0
    Kirk Cousins15.5
    Marcus Mariota12.8
    Deshaun Watson11.9
    Dak Prescott8.9
    Carson Wentz8.6
    Derek Carr7.9
    Case Keenum7.5
    Ben Roethlisberger6.7
    Blake Bortles6.3
    Jameis Winston2.6
    Mitchell Trubisky2.0

    For more stats like the ones in this article, sign up for a free trial of the SISDataHub by clicking here. For more information about Sports Info Solutions, click here.

  • Preview: AFC Divisional Round – Chargers vs. Patriots

    Let’s take a brief look at some statistical notes ahead of the AFC Divisional Round playoff game between the Chargers and Patriots.

    Chargers Run Game vs Patriots run defense

    • A knee injury forced Melvin Gordon to miss weeks 13-15 and since returning he has not been nearly as dynamic, even before suffering a second knee injury last week. Pre-injury (weeks 1-12) he averaged 5.2 yards per attempt. Post injury, he’s at 3.2.

    Gordon’s knee injury is clearly impacting his play, as he has dropped from 3.3 yards after contact per attempt pre-injury to 1.7 since. His 3.2 yards after contact per attempt ranked sixth in the NFL this season and his 24 percent broken tackle percentage is second.

      • Austin Ekeler has also been terrific at breaking tackles and gaining extra yardage.
        • His broken tackle percentage is just outside of the top-10 among backs at 21 percent (11th).
        • His 3.8 yards after contact per attempt is the second highest rate in the league behind only Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (4.3 per attempt).
      • Ekeler’s ability to break tackles and gain extra yards after initial contact have been imperative to his success. 73 percent of Ekeler’s rush yards this season have come after contact, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
      • These two backs have combined to break free of opposing tacklers 64 times combined which is tied for the second most for a pair of teammates, behind only Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis who combined for 89.

    Chargers’ Passing Game vs Patriots passing defense

        • The Patriots play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Here is Keenan Allen’s target share against each defense:
          • Zone: 24% (receiver rating 120)
          • Man: 30% (96)
        • Below are Rivers splits vs man and zone:
    Defense Comp % On-Tgt % Y/A IQR TD% INT%
    Man 60% 75% 7.9 104 8.1 3.2
    Zone 75% 86% 9.4 112 5.3 1.8
        • The Chargers’ do a good job of involving their running backs in the passing game, as all of their backs combine for 65.5 yards a game, most in the league
          • The Patriots rank 23rd, allowing 46.1 yards per game through the air to opposing running backs, but since week 9 they have only allowed 27.0 (5th in NFL).
        • If the Chargers fall behind, Mike Williams is an interesting player to watch. When trailing, no one has a higher receiver rating in the NFL than Williams’ 153 (minimum 25 targets when trailing) (if we lower the minimum to 20, Chris Hogan of the Patriots rates higher).
          • This is particularly interesting because of how the Patriots line up their defensive backs. Stephon Gilmore, their top cornerback, is generally tasked with shutting down a team’s No. 2 receiver while a combination of another corner and safety (like the McCourty twins) generally double team the other team’s top receiver.
          • When Stephon Gilmore is targeted in coverage while the Patriots are winning, he has allowed a rating against of 101, which is 10th best among defensive backs who have been targeted at least 20 times while defending a lead.

    Patriots’ Run Game vs Chargers Run Defense

        • The Patriots have a reputation as a passing offense
          • However, over the last three seasons the Patriots are the only team to be top-five league wide in running back rush attempts, finishing second this year with 24 attempts per game
        • The Patriots’ are the best team in the league at spreading out where they run the ball, going to both sides and up the middle almost perfectly evenly. Rush attempts to each side listed below:
          • Left Outside and Left Off Tackle: 163, 34% of runs
          • Left Inside, Middle, and Right Inside: 163, 34% of runs
          • Right Outside and Right Off Tackle: 152, 32% of runs

    Patriots’ Passing Game vs Chargers’ Pass Defense

      • Rob Gronkowski has been exceptionally quiet this season through a mix of missing time with injuries and minimal involvement when healthy.
        • The Chargers’ have allowed the second fewest yards per pass attempt against tight ends (6.3) and the second lowest receiver rating (66)
      • James White has a very favorable matchup. This season the Patriots targeted running backs 157 times, more than any other team, with 123 targets going to White.
        • The Chargers have allowed 7.0 yards per attempt to running backs this season which ranks 25th in the NFL
      • Julian Edelman had a fantastic 2016 season, but after missing 20 consecutive regular season games, there were question marks about how productive he could be.
        • Since his return in Week 5, he ranks first on the Patriots in targets (107) and receptions (74). Those numbers rank sixth and eighth in the NFL respectively among wide receivers.
        • To illustrate how consistently active Edelman has been with the Patriots, below is a list of the players with the most 5-reception games in the playoffs for one team since 1950
          • Jerry Rice, 14 with SF (another 3 with OAK)
          • Julian Edelman, 11 with NE
          • Michael Irvin, 11 with DAL
          • Reggie Wayne, 11 with IND

    * Independent Quarterback Rating is Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric. It builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by accounting for results that are outside of the quarterback’s control – dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. – to form a better benchmark of QB value.

  • Which quarterbacks have had the most success with long throws in 2018?

    For an updated version of this article, which includes all of 2018, click here

    by MARK SIMON

    A quarterback throwing the deep ball is one of the most exciting things you’ll see in a football game. It leads to big plays, sometimes game-changing moments and puts a receiver’s athleticism on display.

    So let’s dig into a few of the numbers related to long passes this season. For our purposes, unless otherwise noted, we’re referring to passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    Who throws them most often?
    The NFL leader in deep pass attempts this season is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes with 62, just ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Mitchell Trubisky ranks fourth despite having missed two games. He could have been atop the list had he played every game this season.

    Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson led the NFL with 88 deep pass attempts last season. More on him in a moment.

    Most Deep Passes Attempted in 2018
    Patrick Mahomes 62
    Aaron Rodgers 61
    Ben Roethlisberger 58
    Mitchell Trubisky 54
    Matt Ryan 49
    Russell Wilson 47
    Kirk Cousins 47

    Who throws them most accurately?
    An easy explanation for Saints quarterback Drew Brees’ success this season is his success on deep balls. He’s 22-of-37 on them, a 60 percent completion percentage that easily ranks best in the NFL. Two other quarterbacks are at 50 percent or higher — Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buccaneers (52 percent) and Jared Goff of the Rams (50 percent).

    If we change the criteria to on-target percentage, rather than completion percentage, Goff takes the lead. He’s thrown 31 of his 46 deep passes on target (67 percent).

    The contrasts to Brees and Goff are Jets rookie Sam Darnold and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

    Darnold is 6-of-36 on his deep throws (17 percent, the lowest completion percentage in the league), though that’s not completely his fault. His on-target percentage is 47 percent (17-of-36). Darnold’s backup Josh McCown is actually worse, going 1-of-15 on his deep throws. He was a much more respectable 20-of-46 (43 percent) completing those passes last season.

    Prescott has a 33 percent completion percentage, but an NFL-low 40 percent on-target percentage (12-of-30).

    The NFL averages on deep throws this season are a 37 percent completion percentage and a 52 percent on-target percentage.

    Highest Completion Percentage on Deep Passes – Minimum 25 Attempts
    Attempts
    Drew Brees 59.5% 37
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 51.7% 29
    Jared Goff 50.0% 46
    Russell Wilson 48.9% 47
    Derek Carr 44.2% 43
    Philip Rivers 43.9% 41
    Eli Manning 43.5% 46
    Patrick Mahomes 43.5% 62

    Who is hitting on the deepest deep balls?
    The thin air in Denver is allowing Case Keenum’s balls to carry a bit. He’s average 31.7 air yards on his long pass completions, the highest average in the NFL. He’s about a half-yard better than Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.

    Who has had the biggest payoff the most often?
    Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes on deep throws, one more than Wilson and Drew Brees.

    Brees has yet to throw an interception on one of these pass attempts. Roethlisberger has two. Wilson has one.

    On the opposite side of the ledger, Deshaun Watson leads the NFL with five interceptions on those passes. Six quarterbacks have four, including Mahomes.

    In all, quarterbacks have 150 touchdown passes and 89 interceptions on these passes, which averages to 4.7 and 2.8 per team respectively.

    Who is the best overall?
    It would be easy to say that Brees is the top guy, given his completion percentage and his touchdown success on these passes, and if you did, that would be completely fair.

    However, our Total Points system makes a different choice. It goes with Wilson, who ranked seventh last season (Alex Smith and Tom Brady were 1-2).

    To excerpt from Alex Vigderman’s Football Outsiders article on a quarterback’s Passing Points Earned.

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    Wilson’s volume of success, his rate of success, and the outcomes themselves have combined to put him in the No. 1 spot in terms of which quarterbacks are best at one of the most exciting plays in the game.

    For those wondering about Rodgers, his value gain comes in the drops by his receivers, which are being treated as completed passes in this system. With those, and his performance on 30-yard or longer throws, he vaults ahead of Brees by a hair.

     

    NFL Leaders – Points Earned on Deep Passes
    Pts Comp-Att, TD, INT
    1. Russell Wilson 29.5 23-of-47, 9 TD, 1 INT
    2. Aaron Rodgers 25.8 22-of-61, 6 TD, 0 INT
    3. Drew Brees 23.5 22-of-37, 9 TD, 0 INT
    4. Patrick Mahomes 23.4 27-of-62, 8 TD, 4 INT
    5. Philip Rivers 22.5 18-of-41, 7 TD, 1 INT