By Steve Schwartz
Week 10 begins with an AFC West battle between the Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) and the Oakland Raiders (4-4). The Chargers were expected to challenge for the division title before injuries to the defense derailed them but have won two straight as that same defense has held Chicago and Green Bay to a combined 27 points.
1) Tyrell Williams, under 3.5 receptions, under -114
It’s been seven weeks since Tyrell Williams has caught more than three balls in a game. And since the start of 2018 he’s cracked four receptions in just five of 21 regular season games. He’ll face his old team, the Chargers, who are stingy with pass receptions having yielded just 20 completions per game which ranks 7th-lowest in the NFL. The addition of running back Josh Jacobs has made the Oakland offense much more balanced and receivers (other than tight end Darren Waller) have seen fewer opportunities. SIS data says Williams makes 2.5 catches and should be -313, but we only have to give -114.
2) Austin Ekeler, under 4.5 receptions, under -112
Since the return of Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has been trying to carve out a niche. In the first game he caught 15 balls, but since has averaged just four receptions per game. He’s also barely been part of the running game (though he had 12 carries last week). SISdata analysis puts Ekeler with 4.7 targets and 3.5 receptions which makes ‘under’ fair market value at -264, but the line is -112.
3) Mike Williams, under 4.5 receptions, under -141
Mike Williams has caught more than 4.5 balls in just two of eight games this season and just three times in 16 times last season. SIS data predicts 6.1 targets and 3.8 receptions, therefore -201 is fair market and the current number is -141.
4) Philip Rivers, under 23.5 completions, under -118
The Chargers have won their last two games without much production from Rivers. He’s thrown just 57 passes and completed 40 in wins over Chicago and Green Bay. In fact, he completes just 22.3 passes in wins this season and 26.8 completions in five losses this season. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites Thursday night. Our analysis shows he will throw 34 passes and complete 22. of them making the under value at -164 while the current odds are -118.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Philip Rivers, 1.5, over -157/under +125
Derek Carr, 1.5, over -112/under -112
Philip Rivers, 0.5, over -108/under -115
Derek Carr, 0.5, over -106/under -118
Philip Rivers, 23.5 completions, over -106/under -118
Derek Carr, 21.5 completions, over -121/under -104
Philip Rivers +2200
Keenan Allen, 5.5, over -109/under -114
Hunter Henry, 5.5, over +114/under -141
Austin Ekeler, 4.5, over -112/under -112
Mike Williams, 4.5, over +114/under -141
Melvin Gordon, 2.5, over -125/under +101
Darren Waller, 4.5, over -141/under +114
Tyrell Williams, 3.5, over -109/under -114