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Tag: Tee Higgins

  • Who are the best “Day 2 WR” in the NFL Draft?

    By JOHN SHIRLEY

    The Colts and Steelers were in unfamiliar territory last season. They were both attempting to rally behind an unproven quarterback, after losing their projected starters unexpectedly. After having matching circumstances and similar results in 2019, the two teams find themselves paralleling each other again heading into the 2020 Draft.

    Both teams have traded away their first round pick for defensive help and both need a boost at receiver to help an aging quarterback from the legendary 2004 draft class. Based on SIS’s Total Points metric, only the Eagles currently have a worse receiving corps than the Colts and Steelers.

    Current WR Corps Rankings by 2019 Total Points

    RankTeamWR Total Points
    32Eagles21
    31Colts25
    30Steelers26

    The good news for the Colts and Steelers is that the upcoming NFL Draft is loaded with premier talent at the wide receiver position. While they won’t be in play for the class’s headliners, they will still have high-level players to choose from when they select at 34 and 49, respectively.   

    Colts

    Colts Projected Top 3 WR’s 2019 Stats

    PlayerTgtsCatch%ADoTYAC/RecSlot%Total Points
    Zach Pascal7356%11.75.853%17
    T.Y. Hilton6965%9.94.937.5%9
    Parris Campbell2572%8.06.057%0

    The Colts returning receivers should be better this season if they can stay healthy, as they lost significant time from both T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell last season. But, they could still use some help at the position. A deep threat with a large catch radius would be a welcome addition, as Zach Pascal’s team leading ADoT of 11.7 only ranked 55th among receivers with at least 20 targets. New quarterback Philip Rivers is used to getting a lot of help from his receivers. 

    Potential Targets:

    Tee Higgins, Clemson (SIS Football Rookie Handbook Grade: 6.7)

    • Scouts Take: Higgins has the natural hands, contested-catch ability, and wide catch radius to be a solid No. 2 at the next level, but his rounded cuts and inability to consistently separate against press may hold him back. – Nathan Cooper

    Jalen Reagor, TCU (SIS Football Rookie Handbook Grade: 6.8)

    • Scouts Take: Reagor has the speed, playmaking ability, quickness in and out of routes, and strong hands to be a consistent contributor in the NFL, but will need to win more against physical DB’s and learn an NFL route tree to take his game to the next level. – Nathan Cooper & Matt Johnston. (video analysis here)

    Denzel Mims, Baylor (SIS Football Rookie Handbook Grade: 6.4)

    • Mims is a very athletic, physical wide receiver who is an asset in all areas of the field with a wide catch radius and good blocking ability, but needs to improve his route running and become more consistent in traffic to become a better overall player. – Evan Butler

    Steelers

    Steelers Projected Top 3 WR’s 2019 Stats

    PlayerTgtsCatch%ADoTYAC/RecSlot%Total Points
    Diontae Johnson9165%9.15.224%15
    James Washington7856%15.24.640%13
    JuJu Smith-Schuster7258%9.25.871%-1

    The Steelers receiving corp took a major step back last season due to multiple reasons. The absence of a starting caliber quarterback, after Ben Roethlisberger’s injury, definitely lowered the group’s potential, as did JuJu Smith-Schuster being miscast as a No. 1 receiver.

    The good news for the Steelers is that with Smith-Schuster in the slot, James Washington emerging as a legitimate deep threat, and Diontae Johnson surprising as a third-round pick, they should have some solid pieces this year. Though, they could use some added size on the outside to complement the returning weapons. 

    Potential Targets:

    Laviska Shenault Jr., Colorado (SIS Football Rookie Handbook Grade: 6.8)

    • Shenault is a big-bodied, versatile receiver who wins at the point of attack and has a fierce, competitive attitude, but brings limited play speed and needs to refine his route running before he can become a star. – Cyril Penn

    Grabriel Davis, UCF (SIS Football Rookie Handbook Grade: 6.7)

    • Davis has the tracking, vertical separation, playmaking ability, and physical gifts to be a solid starter in the NFL, but he will need to show more after the catch and learn to run a more diverse route tree to become the complete package. – Alex O’Brian

    Michael Pittman Jr, USC (SIS Football Rookie Handbook Grade: 6.4)

    • Pittman Jr. will succeed in the NFL with his ability to high-point and body-up secondary defenders, but his lack of quickness and lateral athleticism should keep him from becoming a true No. 1 target. – Steve Chang & John Todd

    The 2020 Football Rookie Handbook is available for $15 from ACTASports.com. If you liked this article and like studying the NFL Draft, you’ll surely enjoy the book.

  • Who were the top red zone receivers among NFL prospects?

    By Kyle Rodemann

    Red zone receivers can get a reputation as jump-ball specialists. They go up, win 50-50 balls, and score touchdowns. It is essential that the QB trusts the receiver, allowing the QB to throw the ball up and believe his teammate will come down with it. Tee Higgins has the size and skill of a  50-50 ball specialist, but does that make him a top red zone threat in this year’s draft class?

    This article will look to answer that question, as well as shed light on other red zone threat prospects.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to targets within the red zone (Opposing 20 to goal line).

    All prospects found in the leaderboards below are found in The 2020 SIS Rookie Handbook, unless otherwise stated.

    The Opportunists

    These receivers are targeted the most in the red zone. Their QBs looked for them in these crucial situations and rely on them to score when the team needs it most.

    Receiver School Red Zone Targets (Receptions)
    James Proche SMU 35 (17)
    Tyler Johnson Minnesota 30 (18)
    Gabriel Davis UCF 22 (8)
    Justin Jefferson LSU 20 (17)
    Omar Bayless Arkansas State 20 (11)
    Antonio Gandy-Golden Liberty 19 (5)
    Jauan Jennings Tennessee 19 (10)

    Even though we don’t associate slot receivers with red zone targets, these receivers are getting targets all over the field. James Proche leads in red zone targets with 35, receiving 21% of those targets near the end zone. Another surprise on this list is Justin Jefferson, another receiver that primarily played slot during 2019. Jefferson also led his team in targets with 134, second in FBS only to Proche.

    We should note that Tyler Johnson had the highest red zone target share in FBS (meaning the highest percentage of targets on his team) at 52%, followed by Gabriel Davis (42%),  Proche (39%), and Bayless (38%)

    Taking Advantage

    Getting red zone targets is one thing, turning them into receptions is another. Below shows a leaderboard of the wide receiver prospects that caught the highest percentage of their red zone targets.

    Receiver Completion %
    Isaiah Hodgins 92%
    K.J. Hill 92%
    Tee Higgins 88%
    Henry Ruggs III 86%
    Justin Jefferson 85%
    Lawrence Cager 83%
    Van Jefferson 82%

     

    Isaiah Hodgins of Oregon State caught 92% of his red zone looks. His QB targeted him a total of 13 times, catching 12 of those and turning 9 of them into touchdowns. A close second is slot receiver K.J. Hill from Ohio State. He saw 12 targets, catching 11 of them in the process. Justin Jefferson (17 receptions on 20 targets) also makes this list. He was used on a consistent basis and was effective when targeted.

    High Scorers

    Targets and completion percentages don’t matter if the player is not able to score. The whole point of a red zone target is to find paydirt. The following prospects scored touchdowns on the highest percentage of  their red zone targets:

    Receiver Touchdown Percentage (TDs)
    Tee Higgins 75% (6)
    Isaiah Hodgins 69% (9)
    Justin Jefferson 60% (12)
    K.J. Hill 58% (7)
    Lawrence Cager 50% (3)
    Donovan Peoples-Jones 50% (5)
    Omar Bayless 45% (9)

     

    Tee Higgins tops the list with 75% of his red zone targets turning into a touchdown. While he only saw eight targets, Higgins was very efficient in turning them into six touchdowns.

    Justin Jefferson has seen more targets, caught a higher percentage of his targets, and now turned a higher percentage of the targets into touchdowns than the average receiver. It seems the LSU standout receiver shows up in the most important part of the field.

    Helping the QB Look Good

    A quarterback’s Passer Rating can help put performance into a concrete number. This number can vary depending on the receiver that is targeted, and the depth of the target. Similarly, we can define Receiver Rating as the Passer Rating earned when any particular receiver is targeted. The table below shows which prospects return the highest Receiver Rating when targeted in the red zone:

    Receiver Receiver Rating
    Tee Higgins 148.4
    Isaiah Hodgins 141.2
    Justin Jefferson 136.0
    Lawrence Cager 129.9
    K.J. Hill 127.4
    Donovan Peoples-Jones 112.9
    Bryan Edwards 112.7

     

    This list shares a lot of names with the previous list, which is unsurprising given the efficiency of these receivers when seeing a target in the red zone. Another list, another showing from Jefferson, who was a weapon for LSU when targeted within 20 yards of the goal line.

    Conclusion

    Red zone threats are hard to come by. They are reliable receivers that help their team score whenever near the goal line. Jefferson is the only receiver to make it onto every single leaderboard found in this article, making him one of the best weapons in the red zone found in this draft.