By Steve Schwarz

Thursday’s game doesn’t have any “bet-the-house” options, but we have found a number of variances between our numbers and the casino which could be exploited. Beware, however, the Thursday weather report for Seattle does include a chance for a few showers which could complicate things.

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1) Tyler Lockett, over 4.5 receptions, -134.

Lockett has produced two double-digit reception days and even in a blowout win over Arizona last weekend caught four balls. He leads the Seahawks in targets, averaging eight per contest, and given his 81% catch-percentage in 2019 and his 81% catch percentage last season it’s reasonable to project the over. Our analysis predicts this at a -220 rate, but we are only paying -134.

2) Jared Goff, under 24.5 completions, -112.

Goff’s 45 completions on Sunday (in 68 attempts), shouldn’t scare you away from betting the under in this one. That was Tampa Bay and the Rams were playing from behind. This game against the Seahawks will be played like a playoff game with the winner getting the early upper hand in the division. In none of the first three games of the season, did Goff produce 25 completions and in the three playoff games to finish 2018 he averaged just 19.6 completions. Then add in the chance for a wet football and that adds to the likelihood of him finishing under. A fair price here should be -162, but its -112.

3) Russell Wilson, under 21.5 completions, -112.

Wilson has begun the season as hot as he’s ever been, but still he’s averaging just 24 completions per game against the likes of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Arizona. He’ll be facing the 2017 and 2018 Defensive Player of the Year in Aaron Donald. Before last Sunday’s failures the team was allowing just 16.3 points per game. A fair price should be -156, but the casino odds are just -112.

4) Todd Gurley, score a touchdown, +105.

Over his last 33 games, Gurley has scored 43 touchdowns (33 rushing, 10 receiving). That’s a pretty good sample size, including three in four games this season. He’s also scored nine times in seven career games against Seattle, yet he’s a slight underdog in this prop bet. SISdata analysis project that Gurley should be a -123 favorite here.

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.


Quarterback Touchdown Passes


Jared Goff, 1.5, over -120/under -104

Russell Wilson, 1.5, over -162/under +130


Quarterback Interceptions


Jared Goff, 0.5, over -167/under +134

Russell Wilson, 0.5, over +122/under -122


Quarterback Completions


Jared Goff, 24.5 completions, over -112/under -112

Russell Wilson, 21.5 completions, over -112/under -112


Touchdown Scorers


Seattle –

Jaron Brown, +425

Chris Carson, +110

Will Dissly, +150

Tyler Lockett, +105

D.K. Metcalf, +150

David Moore, +700

Rashaad Penny, +375

C.J. Prosise, +550

Malik Turner, +800

Russell Wilson, +350


Los Angeles Rams –

Malcolm Brown, +165

Brandin Cooks, +200

Gerald Everett, +375

Jared Goff, +850

Todd Gurley, +105

Tyler Higbee, +425

Cooper Kupp, +125

Josh Reynolds, +800

Robert Woods, +225



Total Receptions


Seattle –

Chris Carson, 2.5, over 100/under -124

Will Dissly, 4.5, over 120/under -150

Tyler Lockett, 4.5, over -134/under +107

D.K. Metcalf, 2.5, over -137/under +110


Los Angeles Rams –

Brandin Cooks, 4.5, -112/under -112

Todd Gurley, 2.5, over -162/under +130

Cooper Kupp, 6.5, over +120/under -150

Robert Woods, 5.5, +110/under -137