A pivotal matchup between the two teams that failed to beat the Lions graces us on Thursday Night Football. What a matchup! In all seriousness, this game should be fairly competitive as the Vikings look to right the ship and the Steelers come off an important win against the Ravens. Analysis done using SISBets.com. Let’s get into the picks:
1) Kirk Cousins, under 22.5 completions, under -105.
Cousins has been good for the past month, averaging 303 passing yards and over two touchdowns, but he’ll be challenged in this one because he will likely be without his “security blanket” and “red zone specialist” Adam Thielen (high-ankle sprain). The Vikings’ opponent, the Steelers, are only allowing 21.9 completions per game and love to get after the quarterback – leading the league with 37 sacks. SIS analysis has Cousins going 20-for-32 for 243 yards and a fair market value for the under at -199.
2) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, over -115.
Most of the talk last week was about the possible future retirement of Roethlisberger, but he’s not done yet. He no longer has those monster games, but his floor is still high. He’s cracked 200 yards in 10 consecutive games, and using his impressive rookies at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and running back (Najee Harris) and his skilled wideouts he has averaged 24.5 completions. Our projection suggests he’ll go 25-for-38 for 263 yards.
3) Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120.
Over his last three games, McCloud has seen 18 targets, showing he’s becoming more involved in the offense. His yards aren’t there yet, but he’s still averaging 27.3 yards over that span. The Vikings’ pass defense has been pretty bad all season, allowing almost 190 yards to opposing wideouts per game. SIS analysis predicts McCloud to see 4.6 targets and catch 3.3 for 33.4 yards. That’s more than double what’s necessary to win the over.
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota
Ben Roethlisberger
Over 257.5 yards -115, under -115
Over 1.5 TD passes -120, under -110
Over 0.5 INTs -125, under -110
Over 22.5 completions -115, under -115
Kirk Cousins
Over 254.5 yards -115, under -115
Over 1.5 TD passes -110, under -120
Over 0.5 INTs +110, under -145
Over 22.5 completions -125, under -105
TD Scorers
Pittsburgh –
Najee Harris, -135
Diontae Johnson, +120
Chase Claypool, +190
Pat Freiermuth, +190
Ray-Ray McCloud, +380
James Washington, +500
Benny Snell, +1300
Ben Roethlisberger, +1600
Minnesota –
Alexander Mattison, -125
Justin Jefferson, -105
K.J. Osborn, +200
Tyler Conklin, +225
Dede Westbrook, +350
Kene Nwangwu, +400
Kirk Cousins +850
Rushing Yards
Pittsburgh –
Najee Harris, over 71.5 yards -115, under -115
Receptions
Pittsburgh –
Chase Claypool, over 3.5 receptions -150, under +115
Diontae Johnson, over 6.5 receptions -115, under -115
Najee Harris, over 3.5 receptions -130, under -105
Pat Freiermuth, over 3.5 receptions -125, under -105
Minnesota –
Justin Jefferson, over 7.5 receptions +100, under -135
Tyler Conklin, over 3.5 receptions -160, under +120
Receiving Yards
Pittsburgh –
Chase Claypool, over 51.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Diontae Johnson, over 79.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Najee Harris, over 26.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Pat Freiermuth, over 36.5 receiving yards -110, under -120
Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120, under -110
Minnesota –
Justin Jefferson, over 92.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
Tyler Conklin, over 39.5 receiving yards -115, under -115
K.J. Osborn, over 41.5 receiving yards -125, under -115