In the 2024 NFL Draft quarterbacks went early and often, and it didn’t take long to find out why. We saw some impressive rookie campaigns last season and it’s clear that these quarterbacks have bright futures ahead.

One of those quarterbacks is Bo Nix, who Denver took with the 12th overall pick a year ago. He was actually the sixth quarterback taken in the draft, behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy.

Nix went on to finish third in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, but how much did his play justify that?

Well, by our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings methodology, he’s pretty much arrived.

The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points, to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is Points Above Average (PAA), the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

Here are the rankings heading into 2025, grouped into tiers:

Tier 1

1. Lamar Jackson

Tier 2

2. Josh Allen

3. Joe Burrow

Tier 3

4. Jayden Daniels

Tier 4

5. Justin Herbert

6. Patrick Mahomes

Tier 5

7. Bo Nix

8. Jordan Love

Tier 6

9. Jared Goff

10. Baker Mayfield

You might be able to quibble with the order of some of these names, but the inclusion of Nix here is the most surprising thing. Is that a reasonable assessment of his value?

Nix’s Rookie Season Stats and Analysis

The Broncos’ quarterback had some solid counting stats last season, especially his 29 passing touchdowns.

He also proved he can make plays happen with his legs, picking up 41 first downs by rushing, which ranked 29th among all players, not just quarterbacks.

Counting stats move the needle for awards voting, but by taking a closer look at Nix’s Total Points and other advanced metrics, we can get a better idea of just how good he was last season.

First, let’s take a look at some general advanced statistics, with Nix’s rank among the 46 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts:

* Boom and Bust Rate are the rate of plays gaining or losing at least one EPA, respectively.

Nix was 9th in Total Points Per Play last season, but he wasn’t particularly consistent, and he wasn’t frequently making splash plays either. You would think that a good quarterback would fit into at least one of these categories, but Nix didn’t last season.

So why did Nix rank so highly in terms of Total Points? Well for that, we have to dig a little deeper.

Pass Attempts

Nix’s average throw depth was 7.3 yards last season, which ranked 27th among QBs. A big reason for this was the number of screens he threw (90, 3rd-most). On non-screen passes, Nix’s average throw depth was 9.7 (tied for 15th).

There was a solid effort for big plays in Denver, the Broncos just struggled to convert on them. In fact, Nix was 5th in Intended Air Yards, but he ranked a lot lower in completed Air Yards at 17th. Broncos receivers had the fifth-most targets of at least 20 yards, but they posted a 10.3% drop rate (7th-worst). Total Points gives Nix credit for being aggressive downfield, and those drops get credited to him as though they were completed. But he was below average in how often he delivered an accurate throw on those deep targets.

And finally, his completion percentage was right in the middle of the pack (66%), and his catchable pass percentage was tied for 21st (85%).

Sack and Turnover Avoidance

Young quarterbacks tend to struggle with pressures, sacks, and turnovers. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels all had a sack rate at or above 7.8%, which ranks 34th or worst among quarterbacks.

This is an area where Nix shined. His sack rate was 3.8%, which was 5th-best in the NFL. He threw 12 interceptions, but he did not lose any fumbles on the year.

Sacks are drive killers, and they hurt most quarterbacks more than Nix last year. If you exclude sacks from the ledger of every quarterback, Nix’s rank in Passing Total Points per play drops from 9th to 20th.

Nix is a tough player to sack, despite not forcing a lot of broken or missed tackles like Daniels and Williams. Instead, Nix would find a way to gain positive yardage on a scramble, rather than take a drive-killing sack. He had 49 scrambles last season, which was second-most in the NFL (Daniels had 72). Nix was also the league leader in pass attempts on designed rollouts (65). Combine these with the high amount of screen passes, and you have a good idea of how Denver kept Nix on his feet last season.

Looking Ahead to 2025

Is there a sophomore slump in store for Bo Nix in 2025? He still has Sean Payton calling the plays, a stellar offensive line, and some new pass catchers to throw to as well. They got a big upgrade at tight end when they signed Evan Engram, and they drafted Pat Bryant in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft as well.

Marvin Mims made some big plays in the second half of last season, and Troy Franklin is also entering Year 2. Denver also added J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey in the backfield, which will make defenses have to respect the run.

One thing Nix will have to deal with this year is that opposing defenses now have a year’s worth of film on him. Screens and designed rollouts can only get you so far. Nix is going to have to prove he can make throws in the pocket and to all three levels of the field.

Is Bo Nix a Top 10 Quarterback?

Bo Nix was the 6th QB taken in the draft just a year ago, but are the teams who passed on him already regretting their decision?

Our advanced metrics show that Nix has desirable traits that Sean Payton’s offensive scheme can take advantage of. However, there are some underlying statistics that make it difficult to rate him as a top 10 quarterback already.

If you remove screens, Bo Nix drops from 6th to 11th in passing Total Points. He’s willing to push the ball downfield, but he’s not particularly strong at it. From a rushing perspective, he’s got enough mobility to extend plays and scramble for additional yardage, but he’s not evading tackles at an elite rate. That very low sack rate might not hold up.

Nix could have a very solid career as an NFL quarterback, but let’s not rush to place MVP bets on him just yet.