The NFL is often referred to as a “copycat” league, and the trendsetter this time around is Dan Campbell. Campbell is not the NFL’s most recent head coaching hire, but his aggressiveness on 4th down is now catching on with the rest of the league. Turns out, it’s hard to stop a team when they are playing with four downs instead of three.

Surprisingly, other NFL teams have been more efficient than the Lions, in addition to going for it more frequently. Does that mean Dan Campbell is no longer the King of Fourth Down? Let’s find out.

Who’s the Best on 4th Down?

When you remove 4th down tries with a less than 10% chance of winning, the Lions lead the NFL in attempts dating back to the beginning of last season with 39. They converted on 67% and their attempts averaged 2.7 eventual points on drives with a successful conversion.

Despite its reputation, Detroit has not been the most efficient team in the league on 4th down. The Commanders have been especially impressive over the last season and a half. Let’s take a look at the top five most efficient teams on fourth down dating back to the start of 2024.

Washington’s efficiency on 4th down has been remarkable, and the other teams in the top 5 are interesting as well. All of these teams have great quarterbacks that can get first downs in the air or on the ground.

The Commanders, Bills, and Buccaneers have made the most of their successful 4th down conversions. They have the highest averages of eventual drive points across the NFL at 3.4 and above.

The main takeaway here is that you’ll have a much better chance of converting on 4th down when you have a great quarterback. If you are a struggling team that doesn’t have a franchise guy under center, maybe it’s better to punt or take the points.

Field Position Value

Detroit’s 4th down reputation is also interesting when you take the field position into consideration. The Lions tend to go for it right around their opponents 29 yard line, which is tied for the second-closest average with the Texans, and slightly behind the Vikings. So the Lions aren’t necessarily a team that is making these big aggressive moves on their own side of the field, but are doing so in a more calculated manner when looking to score points. 

Not only that, but Dan Campbell and the Lions understand that it’s more difficult for their opponents to score when they have to drive the length of the field.

Across the NFL, teams averaged 1.7 points when the drive started at its own 30. That number jumps to 2.4 when they get to midfield, and again when they get to the opposing 35 (2.8).

The Raiders have the highest average yards to the end zone at 46.4, and they’ve only converted on 47% of their tries (fourth-worst). So far in 2025, they have 7 attempts with a 52.4 average yards to the end zone, so they haven’t made any adjustments.

A few other teams that play risky include the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Giants. They tend to go for it when they are roughly 42-43 yards from the end zone. New York has been the most successful (58% first down rate), but all three teams only scored on 43% or below of those drives.

The difference between the Raiders and the Lions is that Detroit is going for it roughly 17 yards closer to the end zone. That 17 yards is worth more than one point on average per drive.

Kicking Impact

Kickers and punters play a massive role in every game, whether it’s field goals, extra points, kickoffs, or punts. Field goals get most of the attention because they directly add (or don’t add) 3 points to the score, but the other kicks are still impactful, just in more of an indirect way.

Thanks to Ryan Rubinstein’s study of the NFL’s kickoff rule changes, we know that the average drive start is still around the 29 yard line in 2025. Touchbacks kicked into the end zone bring the ball out to the 35, but the increase in kick returns have kept the average drive start in the same range as last year.

Another hot topic this year is the increased field goal distance, highlighted by Brandon Aubrey’s record of 5 60+ yard field goals. When you have a kicker with a range like Aubrey’s, it could impact your decision to go for it on 4th down. The decision could be either to go for it in your own territory to try and get within range, or kick it since you are already in it.

It also helps to have a great punter that can pin the opposing team inside its own 15 yard line. The eventual net drive points from drives with 85 yards to go is an average of 1.1. It’s around 2.4 points when you are close to midfield, and around 3 points at the opponents 35 yard line.

The current leader of punts inside the 20 and 10 yard lines is none other than the Detroit Lions’ punter, Jack Fox. Fox has 22 total punts on the year, with 13 ending up inside the 20, and 7 inside the 10.

Dan Campbell’s Mastery of 4th Down Decisions

Most people around the NFL will point to Dan Campbell and the Lions when it comes to the increase of 4th-down attempts across the NFL. That might make you think that they go for it all the time, which isn’t totally wrong, but it’s also not the entire truth.

They are still the top team in 4th down attempts dating back to last season, but other teams have caught on.

Detroit is not the leader in 4th down attempts in the early goings of 2025, and they aren’t the most efficient team either. The Chiefs lead the NFL in 4th down attempts prior to Week 8 with 14, while the Lions have 9. The Commanders have kept up their efficiency this year, converting on 80% of attempts, but they only have 5. The Chiefs converted on 79% of their league-leading attempts, and the Patriots have an 82% first down rate on their 11 tries. Detroit has picked up a first down 67% of the time, which is average compared to the rest of the league.

Despite not being the league leader in attempts or conversions, the Lions are still making great decisions whether they convert or not. When they don’t go for it, they are pinning their opponent deep in their own territory, giving their defense more opportunities to get a stop.

There are so many different variables in place when it comes to 4th downs, but if you’re doing it like Dan Campbell, you are doing it right.