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Author: Kyle Rodemann

  • Prop Recommendations: Steelers at Vikings

    Prop Recommendations: Steelers at Vikings

    A pivotal matchup between the two teams that failed to beat the Lions graces us on Thursday Night Football. What a matchup! In all seriousness, this game should be fairly competitive as the Vikings look to right the ship and the Steelers come off an important win against the Ravens. Analysis done using SISBets.com. Let’s get into the picks:

    1) Kirk Cousins, under 22.5 completions, under -105.

    Cousins has been good for the past month, averaging 303 passing yards and over two touchdowns, but he’ll be challenged in this one because he will likely be without his “security blanket” and “red zone specialist” Adam Thielen (high-ankle sprain). The Vikings’ opponent, the Steelers, are only allowing 21.9 completions per game and love to get after the quarterback – leading the league with 37 sacks. SIS analysis has Cousins going 20-for-32 for 243 yards and a fair market value for the under at -199.

    2) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, over -115.

    Most of the talk last week was about the possible future retirement of Roethlisberger, but he’s not done yet. He no longer has those monster games, but his floor is still high. He’s cracked 200 yards in 10 consecutive games, and using his impressive rookies at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and running back (Najee Harris) and his skilled wideouts he has averaged 24.5 completions. Our projection suggests he’ll go 25-for-38 for 263 yards.

    3) Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120.

    Over his last three games, McCloud has seen 18 targets, showing he’s becoming more involved in the offense. His yards aren’t there yet, but he’s still averaging 27.3 yards over that span. The Vikings’ pass defense has been pretty bad all season, allowing almost 190 yards to opposing wideouts per game. SIS analysis predicts McCloud to see 4.6 targets and catch 3.3 for 33.4 yards. That’s more than double what’s necessary to win the over.

     

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Pittsburgh at Minnesota

    Ben Roethlisberger

    Over 257.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -120, under -110

    Over 0.5 INTs -125, under -110

    Over 22.5 completions -115, under -115

    Kirk Cousins

    Over 254.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -110, under -120

    Over 0.5 INTs +110, under -145

    Over 22.5 completions -125, under -105

     

    TD Scorers

    Pittsburgh –

    Najee Harris, -135

    Diontae Johnson, +120

    Chase Claypool, +190

    Pat Freiermuth, +190

    Ray-Ray McCloud, +380

    James Washington, +500

    Benny Snell, +1300

    Ben Roethlisberger, +1600

    Minnesota –

    Alexander Mattison, -125

    Justin Jefferson, -105

    K.J. Osborn, +200

    Tyler Conklin, +225

    Dede Westbrook, +350

    Kene Nwangwu, +400

    Kirk Cousins +850

     

    Rushing Yards

    Pittsburgh –

    Najee Harris, over 71.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    Receptions

    Pittsburgh –

    Chase Claypool, over 3.5 receptions -150, under +115

    Diontae Johnson, over 6.5 receptions -115, under -115

    Najee Harris, over 3.5 receptions -130, under -105

    Pat Freiermuth, over 3.5 receptions -125, under -105

    Minnesota –

    Justin Jefferson, over 7.5 receptions +100, under -135

    Tyler Conklin, over 3.5 receptions -160, under +120

     

    Receiving Yards

    Pittsburgh –

    Chase Claypool, over 51.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Diontae Johnson, over 79.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Najee Harris, over 26.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Pat Freiermuth, over 36.5 receiving yards -110, under -120

    Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120, under -110

    Minnesota –

    Justin Jefferson, over 92.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Tyler Conklin, over 39.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    K.J. Osborn, over 41.5 receiving yards -125, under -115

  • Top College Deep Ball Passers in 2020

    By KYLE RODEMANN

    Completing a deep pass is great for any offense. Not only do these plays flip the field, but they also increase the likelihood of scoring during the drive. Chunk plays lead to momentum shifts, and long touchdowns can often be the turning point a team needs to complete a comeback. This article will look to find out which college QBs were the best at throwing downfield during the 2020 season. Leaderboards found here will include draft-eligible players as well as underclassmen.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated. Minimum 30 deep attempts unless otherwise noted (62 QBs). Only regular season data is included in this article.

    Most Deep Balls Attempted

    Finding a QB that can make all the necessary throws can be hard for a college organization; but once they find one, it opens up so much for a football team’s offense. Not only does it allow for more deep passes, but it also allows for more explosive plays and chunk gains. These QBs are the leaders in deep throw attempts for the 2020 season:

    QuarterbackSchoolNumber of Throws
    Dillon GabrielUCF69
    D’Eriq KingMiami FL63
    Layne HatcherArkansas State62
    Kyle TraskFlorida60
    Sam EhlingerTexas59
    Levi LewisLouisiana Lafayette58
    Carson StrongNevada56
    Kenny PickettPittsburgh56

    Dillon Gabriel leads the list of most deep pass attempts. This isn’t surprising given UCF’s high-powered offense and quick playing style. Florida’s Kyle Trask is near the top and worth noting. His most successful week throwing deep was against Alabama, where he completed 6 deep passes for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns. Trask is a Heisman finalist and has a chance to be the first Gator Heisman winner since Tim Tebow won the award in 2007.

    Highest On-Target Percentage

    On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride. The quarterbacks that make up this list were the most accurate on throws downfield, giving their guys the best chance at coming down with the ball. Here are the most accurate college quarterbacks on deep passes:

    QuarterbackSchoolOn-Target % (Attempts)
    Zach WilsonBYU72% (50)
    Trevor LawrenceClemson70% (40)
    Spencer RattlerOklahoma69% (49)
    Kyle TraskFlorida68% (60)
    Mac JonesAlabama67% (47)
    Dillon GabrielUCF66% (69)
    Jake HaenerFresno State64% (34)

    A lot of big names make this list, with Zach Wilson leading the group with a 74% on-target throw rate. Trevor Lawrence is the potential No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He has been incredible throwing the deep ball, returning an accurate pass on 28 of 40 long balls. He has shown massive improvement in this aspect of his game. Last season, Lawrence’s on-target percentage on deep balls was 48%, 22 percentage points lower than this year’s rate.

    Highest Touchdown Percentage

    Touchdown percentage tells you the rate in which a quarterback threw for a touchdown on deep passes. This can show you not only the accuracy of these throws, but also which receiving cores are finishing these plays with scores. Here are the QBs with the highest touchdown percentages for the 2020 season:

    QuarterbackSchoolTD% (TDs Thrown)
    Mac Jones                    Alabama30% (14)
    Malik WillisLiberty21% (9)
    Spencer RattlerOklahoma20% (10)
    Dillon GabrielUCF20% (14)
    Carson StrongNevada19% (11)
    Grant WellsMarshall19% (9)
    Kedon SlovisUSC18% (7)

    Mac Jones has dominated this season, including on deep passes, where he has a 30% touchdown rate. For comparison, last year’s No. 1 pick, Joe Burrow, threw a touchdown on 28% of his deep passes during his historic senior season.

    Highest IQR

    IQR is SIS’ proprietary stat for quarterbacks. It works like QB Rating but factors out things outside of the QB’s control. This includes dropped passes (which they receive positive credit for) and dropped interceptions (which they receive negative credit for).

    Here are the QBs with the highest IQR on deep passes for the 2020 season:

    QuarterbackSchoolIQR
    Zach WilsonBYU133.8
    Spencer RattlerOklahoma126.1
    Dillon GabrielUCF125.6
    Kyle TraskFlorida122.9
    Carson StrongNevada122.0
    Devin LearyNC State121.5
    Jake HaenerFresno State116.5

    A lot of names on this list also made other lists. This makes sense given the nature of IQR. Zach Wilson has had a meteoric rise this year in the eyes of NFL scouts. His efficiency on the deep ball has put his hat in the ring with the other first round QBs. Trask is another name to keep in mind, as he joins Wilson in that same ring as a potential first-round draft pick.

    Conclusion

    Last season, Burrow wowed the country with his historic rise. The deep ball factored into his success, as he led college quarterbacks in deep ball touchdown percentage, and was top 5 in on-target percentage, lowest interception percentage, yards, and touchdowns. If the deep ball is any indication, this year’s draft class has considerable talent at the QB position. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Kyle Trask all excelled throwing deep but Mac Jones may be the best deep passer in this class.

  • Who were the best quarterbacks throwing long passes in 2019?

    By: Kyle Rodemann

    The deep ball is one of the most exciting plays in the NFL. Momentum can change at the drop of a hat the instant the football leaves the quarterback’s hand. Some quarterbacks are known as deep ball throwers, and this was noted during Sunday’s NFC Wild Card game  when Cris Collinsworth stated that Russell Wilson is the best deep passer in the NFL during the game’s broadcast. Was he right? This article will answer that question.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    The Precision Passers

    Which quarterbacks are most accurate with their deep throws? The table below shows the players with the highest Catchable Percentage on passes that travel at least 20 yards down the field (minimum 30 attempts). This stat looks at the passes that should be caught by the receiver based on where the pass is placed. Keep track of the players on this list, and compare this list to the “gunslinger” table that follows.

    QuarterbackCatchable %
    Jimmy Garoppolo72%
    Matt Ryan67%
    Gardner Minshew60%
    Drew Brees60%
    Daniel Jones60%
    Kirk Cousins59%
    Carson Wentz/Baker Mayfield58%

     This list shows how dominant Jimmy Garoppolo has been when throwing the deep ball, throwing an accurate pass 72% of the time. Compare that to Jameis Winston’s 54%, and you can see why Winston was prone to interceptions.

    In terms of who is completing deep passes most often, Garoppolo leads the league with a 59% completion percentage (19-of-32). He’s followed by Gardner Minshew (22-of-45, 49%), Patrick Mahomes (29-of-62, 47%), Drew Brees (14-of-30, 47%) and Dak Prescott (33-of-74, 45%). 

    The Gunslingers

    A “gunslinger” is a quarterback that takes chances downfield by taking deep shots to their receivers. These quarterbacks are notorious for throwing the deep ball. The 2019 season had plenty of these quarterbacks, with the top gunslinger being known as a risk-taker. Here are the 2019 deep ball attempt leaders:

    QuarterbackNumber of Throws
    Jameis Winston101
    Aaron Rodgers88
    Dak Prescott74
    Philip Rivers73
    Russell Wilson71
    Carson Wentz69
    Deshaun Watson67

    Jameis Winston was a very aggressive quarterback in 2019. He threw 13 more deep balls than the second quarterback on the list, Aaron Rodgers. This comes as no surprise since Winston is known to chuck the ball deep to his top receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Carson Wentz makes a surprise appearance on this list with 69 deep throws. This is a surprise considering most of his starting receivers were injured for a large part of the season. 

    The Touchdown Machines

    Touchdown percentage looks at the percentage of deep throws that result in a touchdown. The following list can help determine where negative regression is possible, as a high touchdown percentage is often unsustainable. Here is the table (minimum 30 attempts):

    QuarterbackTD%
    Jimmy Garoppolo22%
    Patrick Mahomes19%
    Daniel Jones17%
    Kirk Cousins14%
    Drew Brees13%
    Lamar Jackson13%
    Dak Prescott12%
    Tom Brady12%

    Garoppolo again leads this list of deep ball passers. He not only is throwing an accurate ball, but is finding success scoring touchdowns on such plays. Maybe this means Kyle Shanahan will draw up more shots for his quarterback in the postseason? Daniel Jones also makes it on his second list, showing that the rookie has a knack for throwing deep. Keep an eye on him in 2020.

    The Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as written by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped their team win the most while throwing the deep ball. Check out the league leaders below:

    QuarterbackPoints Earned
    Russell Wilson31.4
    Kirk Cousins28.0
    Dak Prescott23.3
    Gardner Minshew22.3
    Jimmy Garoppolo22.1
    Kyler Murray19.6
    Patrick Mahomes18.6

    Wilson rates best. His 31.4 points is three higher than Kirk Cousins’ 28.0 at number two. This stat shows how impactful Wilson has been on his deep throws.

    Getting specific, Wilson was 30-of-71 (42%) with six touchdowns, two interceptions and 40 catchable throws (56% of throws were catchable). Wilson averaged just over 30 air yards per completion, which ranked second to Ryan Tannehill’s 31 among quarterbacks who completed at least 10 such passes.

    Kyler Murray is a surprise name on this list. The exciting rookie has room to grow in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

    Conclusion

    Collinsworth was right in this regard: Wilson is definitely the most impactful deep passer. But there are plenty of other quarterbacks right there with him, including a few who we’ll see this weekend in the Divisional Round. We’ll see which one comes out on top.

  • Top Prop Bets for Saturday NFL Games

    By Steve Schwartz

    Instead of one Thursday night game, the NFL has provided a juicy three-game Saturday schedule for your enjoyment. Unfortunately, there are a lot of question marks for the Houston-Tampa Bay contest which limits our options in the opener, but we have found a number of favorable odds for you to take advantage in the final two games.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 25-21, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last eight weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.

    1) Cooper Kupp, under 4.5 receptions, +105

    Kupp has been targeted less often as the season has progressed, seeing an average of 10.9 targets through Week 8, but just 5.5 targets since. And in the first meeting between the two teams on October 13, he managed just four catches for 17 yards as the 49ers defense dominated the Rams offense. SIS analysis predicts just 3.5 receptions for the Rams slot receiver making a fair price -264, but we are getting +105.

    2) George Kittle, over 5.5 receptions, -137

    Kittle is coming off his best game of the season catching 13-of-17 targets. He’s caught at least six balls in five of the last six games and nine of 12 this season. In the first meeting with the Rams, he caught all eight targets that came in his direction. SIS data is expecting another big effort from Kittle, with 10.2 targets, 7.1 receptions and 91.9 yards. A fair price should be -247, but it’s currently just -137.

    3) Tom Brady, over 20.5 completions, -127

    The Patriots running games has been mostly nonexistent this season, which is why Tom Brady will likely finish the season with more than 600 passing attempts. As long as Julian Edelman is active, Brady will continue to fire early and often. He’s completed 20 or more passes in 10-of-15 games this season and our analysis predicts 37.4 passing attempts and 23.3 completions, covering the number easily. The fair price is -246, so it’s a bargain at -127.

    4) Cameron Brate, score a touchdown, +425

    The Buccaneers are running out of pass catchers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller will all be watching from the sidelines. That leaves wideout Breshad Perriman and a pair of tight ends, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, as the primary options. Brate has a history of getting into the end zone, having scored 20 times from 2016-2018. Brate scored on 16% of his receptions over that span and will be a solid option for Jameis Winston in Week 16. SIS data predicts 5.6 targets and 3.7 catches with a 39% chance of scoring. That means a fair price is +203, but we are getting +425.

    5) Cole Beasley, score a touchdown, +450.

    Beasley has become a touchdown scorer in Buffalo, having reached the end zone in six of the last nine Bills games. He has a great chance to add to the total in Week 16 as he should see plenty of work with deep threat John Brown likely to be covered by the Patriots top CB Stephon Gilmore. When the two teams played in September, Beasley saw 13 targets and caught seven balls. While he probably won’t see that many targets this time around, SIS data still shows a 37% chance to score. Take the +450.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Deshaun Watson, 1.5, odds not listed

    Jameis Winston, 1.5, odds not listed

    Josh Allen, 0.5, over -200/under +160

    Tom Brady, 1.5, over +117/under -148

    Jared Goff, 1.5, over +110/under -137

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5, over -121/under -103

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Deshaun Watson, 0.5, odds not listed

    Jameis Winston, 0.5, odds not listed

    Josh Allen, 0.5, over -137/under +110

    Tom Brady, 0.5, over -109/under -115

    Jared Goff, 0.5, over -167/under +135

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 0.5, over -124/under +100

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Deshaun Watson, not listed

    Jameis Winston, not listed

    Josh Allen, 17.5 completions, over -103/under -141

    Tom Brady, 20.5 completions, over -127/under -113

    Jared Goff, not listed

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 21.5 completions, over -103/under -140

    Touchdown Scorers

    Houston Texans

    ———————

    DeAndre Hopkins -106

    Carlos Hyde +120

    Will Fuller +130

    Kenny Stills +180

    Deshaun Watson +225

    Duke Johnson +260

    Darren Fells +325

    Tampa Bay

    —————

    Ronald Jones +150

    Breshad Perriman +145

    Peyton Barber +200

    Justin Watson +210

    O.J. Howard +240

    Cameron Brate +425

    Dare Ogunbowale +375

    Jameis Winston +800

    Buffalo

    ———

    John Brown +350

    Devin Singletary +220

    Josh Allen +250

    Cole Beasley +450

    Frank Gore +450

    New England Patriots

    —————————-

    Julian Edelman +200

    Sony Michel +110

    James White +225

    Rex Burkhead +325

    Mohamed Sanu +350

    N’Keal Harry +450

    Tom Brady +650

    Los Angeles Rams

    ————————

    Brandin Cooks +325

    Todd Gurley -106

    Cooper Kupp +225

    Robert Woods +275

    Malcolm Brown +325

    Tyler Higbee +325

    Gerald Everett +375

    Jared Goff +850

    San Francisco

    ——————

    Raheem Mostert +110

    George Kittle +130

    Emmanuel Sanders +180

    Deebo Samuel +180

    Matt Breida +285

    Tevin Coleman +300

    Kendrick Bourne +325

    Jimmy Garoppolo +800

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Buffalo at New England –

    James White, 4.5 receptions, over +100/under -125

    Cole Beasley, 4.5 receptions, over +121/under -152

    John Brown, 3.5 receptions, over -122/under -103

    Los Angeles at San Francisco –

    Deebo Samuel, 3.5 receptions, over +105/under -130

    Emmanuel Sanders, 3.5 receptions, over -155/under +125

    Cooper Kupp, 4.5 receptions, over -130/under +105

    Robert Woods, 4.5 receptions, over -148/under +117

    George Kittle, 5.5 receptions, over -137/under +110

  • Top Prop Bets for Ravens vs. Jets

    By Steve Schwartz

    It will be cold in Baltimore Thursday night, but that shouldn’t bother these two northeast teams and the wind should not be a factor. However, in Week 15, when no player is completely healthy, pay attention to the active/inactive list before proceeding; some key players on the Ravens’ offense (Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews) have been limping around at practice this week.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 24-18, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last seven weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.

    1) Lamar Jackson, over 17.5 completions, -112.

    Jackson hasn’t completed more than 17 passes in seven games, but an injured quad is likely to keep his running to a minimum, forcing him to stay in the pocket and pass the ball more often. They could also try using more of Mark Ingram, but the Jets are No. 2 in rushing yards allowed … just 78.8 ypg. Meanwhile, New York is yielding 23.2 completions per game (23rd overall). Jackson should display his ability to throw from the pocket and cover this number easily. SIS analysis expects 21.2 completions making a fair price -380, but we are only paying -112. Best bet of the night.

    2) Le’Veon Bell, under 3.5 receptions, +118.

    Bell has seen just 16 targets over the past four games. That’s half the targets he saw in the first four games of the season. Bell is seeing less usage as time goes by, both rushing and receiving. SIS data sets his expected targets at 3.7 and receptions at 2.6. A fair market value for this prop bet is -279, but the actual number is +118.

    3) Robby Anderson, score a touchdown, +375.

    Anderson has finally started to look like the guy we thought he was. He’s caught a touchdown pass in three of the last four games. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been featuring him the past two games and because of this Anderson has racked up double-digit targets in both. We assume the 16-point favorite Ravens will be out front for most of the game and the Jets will play catch up which can only be good news for Anderson’s chances. SIS data gives the Jets star wideout a 34-percent chance to catch a touchdown pass which translates to a fair number at +286, but the casino offer is +375.

    4) Ty Montgomery, score a touchdown, +900.

    Montgomery has yet to score a touchdown this season, but the wide receiver-turned-running back figures to see a bigger role in Week 15 due to the absence of Bell’s primary backup Bilal Powell (ankle). Although Monty is also less than 100-percent, he is expected to play and could see close to double-digit touches, if active. SIS data suggests Bell will see a light workload, just 17 touches, opening the way for Montgomery. The casino odds of +900 are about three times what it should be.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Sam Darnold, 0.5, over -250/under +195

    Lamar Jackson, 1.5, over -175/under +138

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Sam Darnold, 0.5, over -192/under +150

    Lamar Jackson, 0.5, over +116/under -148

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Sam Darnold, 20.5 completions, over +100/under -128

    Lamar Jackson, 17.5 completions, over -112/under -112

    Touchdown Scorers

    New York Jets

    ——————-

    Le’Veon Bell +120

    Robby Anderson +375

    Jamison Crowder +325

    Daniel Brown +650

    Ty Montgomery +900

    Sam Darnold +900

    Baltimore

    ————-

    Mark Ingram -134

    Lamar Jackson -112

    Mark Andrews +150

    Marquise Brown +180

    Willie Snead IV +285

    Gus Edwards +325

    Hayden Hurst +350

    Nick Boyle +500

    Seth Roberts +600

    Justice Hill +650

    Miles Boykin +850

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    New York Jets –

    Jamison Crowder, 4.5, over +159/under -162

    Robby Anderson, 3.5, over -139/under +112

    Le’Veon Bell, 3.5, over -148/under -+118

    Baltimore –

    Marquise Brown, 3.5, over +129/under -162

  • Top Prop Odds in Bears vs. Cowboys

    By Steve Schwartz

    Dallas and Chicago face off Thursday night with identical 6-6 records. However, while the Cowboys lead their division, the Bears are three games behind the Packers and realistically a long shot for any NFC playoff spot down two games to division rival Minnesota.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 24-15, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last six weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Mitchell Trubisky, under 22.5 completions, -128.

    On a cold night, against a Dallas defense that has allowed fewer than 20 completions in three consecutive games, it’s not likely to be a wild shootout. Throw in the loss of wideout Taylor Gabriel (concussion) and the odds become even more favorable for the under. The SIS data says Trubisky produces 20.8 completions and a fair number should be -191.

    2) Anthony Miller, over 4.5 receptions, +102.

    Miller has seen 33 targets and caught 21 of them over the last three games. Each game he caught at least six balls. He had made himself the clear cut No. 2 option behind Allen Robinson even before Gabriel went down. SIS analysis shows he should see at least eight targets and catch at five balls which puts fair market value at -168, but the line is +102. Take it.

    3) Amari Cooper, under 5.5 receptions, -143.

    Cooper is still dealing with knee issues, but it’s not bad enough to keep him sidelined. He was solid against Buffalo on Thanksgiving, but did miss time late when the injury acted up. Against the low-scoring Bears the Cowboys don’t figure to be down by 19 points as they were to the Bills, so he likely won’t see double-digit targets again. The emergence of Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup and the steady targets for veterans Jason Witten and Ezekiel Elliott will limit Cooper’s upside. SIS data shows just 6.9 targets and 4.6 completions for a fair price of -218, but we are only paying -143.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    Dak Prescott, 1.5, over -125/under 100

    Mitchell Trubisky, 1.5, over +115/under -143

    —————————————-

    Quarterback Interceptions

    Dak Prescott, 0.5, over -182/under +145

    Mitchell Trubisky, 0.5, over -200/under +160

    —————————————-

    Quarterback Completions

    Dak Prescott, 23.5 completions, over -108/under -118

    Mitchell Trubisky, 22.5 completions, over +100/under -128

    —————————————-

    Touchdown Scorers

    Dallas:

    Ezekiel Elliott -155

    Amari Cooper +160

    Michael Gallup +250

    Dak Prescott +260

    Randall Cobb +325

    Jason Witten +325

    Tony Pollard +550

    Blake Jarwin +750

    Tavon Austin +850

    Chicago:

    David Montgomery +105

    Allen Robinson +180

    Tarik Cohen +200

    Anthony Miller +240

    Javon Wims +450

    Jesper Horsted +700

    Cordarrelle Patterson +700

    Mitchell Trubisky +700

    —————————————-

    Total Receptions

    Dallas:

    Ezekiel Elliott, 3.5, over 110/under -134

    Randall Cobb, 3.5, over -134/under 110

    Amari Cooper, 5.5, over 120/under -143

    Michael Gallup, 3.5, over -167/under 135

    Jason Witten, 3.5, over 100/under -125

    Chicago:

    Allen Robinson 5.5, over -108/under -118

    Anthony Miller 4.5, over +102/under -130

    Tarik Cohen, 3.5, over -126/under -102