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  • NFL Statistical Leaderboard Entering Week 11

    NFL Statistical Leaderboard Entering Week 11

    Photo: Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

     Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Read to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
     
    Let us know that we’ve done that.
    You can e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):
    * The Rams offense struggled to get into a groove against the Dolphins on Monday night, which only sank them further to a surprisingly-low 26th rank offensively. The missed time from Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua hurt, of course, but their receiving group has still been their best position group, at 16th.
    * Ja’Marr Chase’s 264-yard outburst against the Ravens leapt him to the top of the wide receiver Total Points rankings. His play alone was worth roughly 12 points on the scoreboard, which was more than any quarterback was worth in Week 10.
    * Speaking of Monday night, Dolphins DE Calais Campbell is having a throwback season, currently ranking tied for third at the position in Total Points (and second on a per-snap basis). He had ranked in the top 10 in each of 2016 to 2019, but no better than 26th over the past four years.
    * The 5-interception showing from Jared Goff dropped him several ranks among quarterbacks, and he’s now sitting at 29th among quarterbacks in Total Points per play. He still ranks above his opponent in that game, C.J. Stroud, who sits at 32nd among qualified passers.

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    If you’ve read all the way through to here, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.

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    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions
    2. Bills
    3. Ravens
    4. Chargers
    5. 49ers
    6. Vikings
    7. Commanders
    8. Packers
    9. Chiefs
    10. Cardinals

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens
    2. Commanders
    3. Bills
    4. Lions
    5. Falcons

    Full list

    Top 5 Defenses
    1. Chargers
    2. Vikings
    3. Titans
    4. Broncos
    5. Eagles
    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks
    1. Lamar Jackson
    2. Joe Burrow
    3. Patrick Mahomes
    4. Bo Nix
    5. Jayden Daniels
    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs
    1. James Conner
    2. Derrick Henry
    3. Bijan Robinson
    4. Najee Harris
    5. Zach Charbonnet
    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers
    1. Ja’Marr Chase
    2. Chris Godwin
    3. Khalil Shakir
    4. A.J. Brown
    5. Jauan Jennings
    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends
    1. Jared Verse
    2. T.J. Watt
    3. Calais Campbell
    4. Greg Rousseau
    5. Trey Hendrickson
    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers
    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Zack Baun
    4. Khalil Mack
    5. Jamien Sherwood

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Pat Surtain II
    2. Kamari Lassiter
    3. Jaylon Jones
    4. Derek Stingley Jr.
    5. Paulson Adebo

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Kerby Joseph
    2. Amani Hooker
    3. Nick Cross
    4. Julian Love
    5. Jessie Bates

    Top 10 list

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    * The potential return of Nico Collins is crucial for the Texans, but it’s a two way street when it comes to C.J. Stroud’s deep ball performance. He has thrown the second-most passes of at least 20 air yards (40), but is tied for 11th in completions on those throws (12). Only Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson have thrown a lower percentage of catchable deep passes.

    * The Vikings’ receivers have done Sam Darnold many favors over the course of the year. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have each caught all of their catchable deep passes this year, making up 13 of Darnold’s league-leading 18 deep completions.

    * Washington’s Dante Fowler Jr. has bounced around quite a bit over his career, but he’s making his mark in his first season as a Commander. He leads the NFL in sack rate and is backing that up with a 5th-ranked Pressure% +/-, which expresses how well he’s pressured the quarterback given his alignment and the game situation.

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     If you’ve read all the way through to here, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.
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    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 18
    2. Jordan Love 16
    3. Justin Herbert, Bo Nix 15
    5. Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins 14

    Top 10 list

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. George Pickens 10
    2. Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson, Jayden Reed 9
    5. Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton 8

    Top 10 list

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Derrick Henry 562
    2. Saquon Barkley 526
    3. Chuba Hubbard 500
    4. Josh Jacobs 496
    5. Bijan Robinson 487

    Top 10 list

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Trey Hendrickson 49
    2. Zach Allen 44
    3. Will McDonald IV 42
    4. Brian Burns, Maxx Crosby 41

    Top 10 list

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.5
    2. Trey Hendrickson 14.9
    3. Zach Allen 12.8
    4. Myles Garrett 12.0
    5. Will McDonald IV 11.2

    Top 10 list

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are some we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    * The Ravens bring the best offense in the NFL into Pittsburgh, hoping to exploit a beatable Steelers secondary. Baltimore ranks 1st in Passing and Receiving, while the Steelers rank 26th in Pass Coverage (and no worst than 3rd in the other defensive categories).

    * Bo Nix has been a Total Points darling this year, pushing the Broncos‘ Passing rank to 3rd. He’s made a reputation for escaping pressure, but he might not have to worry that much when facing the Falcons‘ 31st-ranked Pass Rush.

    * The Chargers are a little banged up in the secondary, but on the season their Pass Coverage ranks 1st in Total Points per play. They’ll need to be at full strength to take on the Bengals, ranked 2nd in Passing and 6th in Receiving.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

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    If you’ve read all the way through this newsletter, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

  • SIS Hires Sujoy Ganguly as Chief Data Scientist Amid its Advancement in the NBA Team Analytics Space

    SIS Hires Sujoy Ganguly as Chief Data Scientist Amid its Advancement in the NBA Team Analytics Space

    SIS, a leader in advanced sports data and analytics, has announced Sujoy Ganguly as its new Chief Data Scientist. With his impressive computer vision background at Stats Perform and Unity Technologies, coupled with a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics from the University of Cambridge, Ganguly brings a wealth of experience to the senior leadership team at SIS.

    Jake Loos, Senior Vice President of Basketball and Innovation at SIS, said, “We’re beyond thrilled to add Sujoy to the team. His immense experience as a leader in the machine learning and computer vision industries will be invaluable as we look to escalate our data creation and modeling capabilities. We are eager to continue innovating and Sujoy is a crucial piece to realizing those ambitions.”

    As Chief Data Scientist, Ganguly will first be spearheading the development of cutting-edge technical components to enhance SIS’ team-facing analytics provision in the NBA.

    Ganguly’s hire is the latest in a series of many exciting advancements that SIS is making in the advanced team analytics product space. In Q1 of 2023, SIS rolled out basketball versions of a new batch of team-facing products, making its rich and groundbreaking data more insightful to clients than ever before. 

    Ganguly and his team will continue to drive innovation on these tools as the company launches baseball and football versions for team, media, and betting clients throughout the rest of 2023.

    A screenshot of SIS’ new NBA data exploration platform, bringing endless insights and queries of the data seen on its basketball Twitter page to clients’ fingertips.

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    About SIS
    Pioneers in the sports data space since 2002, their mission is to enrich and optimize the decision-making process for sports teams, sportsbooks, and sports fans. Learn more at www.sportsinfosolutions.com.

    CONTACT
    Kelsea Benoit
    kbenoit@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com

  • Sports Info Solutions and Combat Registry Announce Partnership with Invicta Fighting Championships

    Sports Info Solutions and Combat Registry Announce Partnership with Invicta Fighting Championships

    TORONTO – (November 11, 2022) – SIS, a leading sports data and analytics provider, and Combat Registry, a combat sports data provider, today announced a multi-year partnership with Invicta Fighting Championships, a subsidiary of Anthem Sports & Entertainment, Inc., and the world’s premier all-women’s mixed martial arts organization, to serve as the exclusive Official Data Providers for the fight organization.

    As part of the agreement, Combat Registry and SIS will collect and distribute both live data and historical data, as well as betting-enabling data and analytics, for every Invicta FC event. More importantly, SIS will also be granted the exclusive right to license and distribute relevant data to sports betting operators.

    Poised to be a force in this competitive landscape, SIS, Combat Registry, and Invicta FC will combine their rich experience and records of success to strategically utilize the growing popularity and availability of sports betting throughout the United States, and the exponential boom in interest and demand that is currently taking place in women’s sports. 

    Dan Hannigan-Daley, CEO of Sports Info Solutions, said, “We’re thrilled to support Invicta FC as the preeminent Women’s MMA property. What Shannon and her team are building there is really exciting and combined with SIS and Combat Registry’s support on the Sports Betting and Data side, we’re sure to bring Invicta FC more to the masses.”

    Shannon Knapp, Founder and President of Invicta FC, said “Invicta FC has already broken new ground as the premier all-female MMA organization, and now we aim to do so once again through this landmark partnership with SIS and Combat Registry. They each possess an incredible depth of knowledge and a sustained track record of success, and we are excited to join forces with them as we expand Invicta’s reach even further.”

    Chris Palmquist, President of Combat Registry, stated, “As a long time fan of Invicta FC, we are excited to partner with them alongside SIS to create data products to further strengthen their fan engagement and drive increased awareness of their already world class level promotion.” 

    As part of the collaboration, SIS will support Invicta FC’s integrity and social responsibility efforts, including efforts regarding bet types, anti-piracy, and problem gambling, alongside partner operators and those offering wagering on Invicta FC.

     

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    About SIS

    Pioneers in the sports data space since 2002, their mission is to enrich and optimize the decision-making process for sports teams, sportsbooks, and sports fans. Learn more at www.sportsinfosolutions.com.

    About Combat Registry

    Founded in 2008, Combat Registry has been an internationally prominent company in the collection and distribution of historical combat sports data, and is today the industry-leading provider of media rankings services for the biggest combat sports promotions in the world. For more information, visit www.combatreg.com

    About Invicta FC

    Invicta Fighting Championships (invictafc.com) is a world championship, all-pro mixed martial arts (MMA) fight organization dedicated to providing female athletes with a major platform to hone their skills on a consistent basis. Founded in 2012 by longtime MMA executive Shannon Knapp, Invicta is committed to pioneering the future growth of women’s MMA by promoting the best possible match-ups between female competitors and identifying and developing future superstars of the sport. Follow Invicta on Twitter (@InvictaFights), Facebook (InvictaFights), and Instagram (@InvictaFC) for all the latest information.

    About Anthem Sports & Entertainment, Inc.

    Anthem Sports & Entertainment, Inc. is a global multi-platform media company with offices and studios in Los Angeles, Denver, Nashville, New York, Kansas City, Cleveland and Toronto.  Anthem’s portfolio includes:  AXS TV, a leading music entertainment and lifestyle television channel and digital media company; global film distribution company Gravitas Ventures; Fight Network, the world’s premier combat sports channel; IMPACT wrestling, one of the world’s leading wrestling organizations specializing in original programming and live events; Invicta Fighting Championships, the world’s premier all-women mixed martial arts promotion; Game+, the leader in Esports and gaming content; GameTV, the home of games shows and competition-based reality series; and HDNet Movies, which features theatrically released films and documentaries.  Anthem also has a significant ownership interest in Pursuit Channel, one of the top outdoor channels in the U.S.

     

    CONTACTS:

    SIS, Kelsea Benoit, kbenoit@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com

    Combat Registry, Chris Palmquist, chris@combatreg.com

    Anthem/Invicta Fighting Championships, Cindy Ronzoni, cronzoni@anthemse.com

  • Sports Info Solutions Named Official Data Provider for Premier Rugby Sevens

    Sports Info Solutions Named Official Data Provider for Premier Rugby Sevens

    (NEW YORK, Oct. 27, 2022) – Sports Info Solutions (SIS), a leading sports data and analytics provider, today announced a partnership with Premier Rugby Sevens (PR7s). As the league’s first official data provider, SIS will collect, distribute, and develop raw analytical and betting data starting with the 2023 PR7s season. 

    Aimed to grow the sport of rugby through sports betting and increased fan engagement, SIS was also granted non-exclusive distribution rights of the data for media entities. The parties will collaborate on further commercial opportunities to position the league for North American expansion and continued growth for both the men’s and women’s competitions. 

    “Rugby sevens and sports betting have been a long-discussed perfect match,” said Owen Scannell, CEO of Premier Rugby Sevens. “Sevens’ action-packed competitiveness and high volume daily of outcomes make for a fantastic product for bettors and sportsbooks alike. We are thrilled that our partnership with SIS will enable Premier Rugby Sevens to drive one of the most exciting and engaging sports betting products and bring new fans into rugby.”

    “Owen and the team at Premier Rugby Sevens are forward thinkers, who have seen exceptional growth to date,” said Dan Hannigan-Daley, CEO of Sports Info Solutions. “We’re excited to support PR7s with data and betting products which will enable the league to take that next step as they look forward to the Rugby World Cup hitting the USA in 2031, bringing with it continued acceleration of the sport here in North America.” 

    In collaboration with third-party operators and those offering wagering on PR7s’ events, SIS will support Premier Rugby Sevens’ integrity and social responsibility efforts, including bet types, anti-piracy, and problem gambling.

    Coming off a successful 2022 season at MLS stadiums across the United States, PR7s is breaking down gender barriers for sports in the U.S. and has achieved several firsts in its brief existence. The league is the first professional sports entity to launch with equal pay for male and female athletes and is the only platform for women to play professional rugby in North America.

    About SIS

    Pioneers in the sports data space since 2002, their mission is to enrich and optimize the decision-making process for sports teams, sportsbooks, and sports fans. Learn more at www.sportsinfosolutions.com.

    About Premier Rugby Sevens

    Premier Rugby Sevens (PR7s) is a groundbreaking professional sports league in North America that debuted in 2021. With a focus on accessibility and entertaining content for fans, the league showcases the electrifying sport of rugby sevens through a touring format in cities across the United States. PR7s is the first sports organization of its kind, with men’s and women’s teams competing under one umbrella with equal pay. To learn more about Premier Rugby Sevens, go to PRSevens.com and follow the league on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

     

    # # #

    CONTACTS:

    SIS
    Kelsea Benoit
    kbenoit@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com

    Premier Rugby Sevens
    Eric Nemeth
    eric.nemeth@prsevens.com

     

     

  • SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    We’ve reached the halfway point of the season and things have started to go off the rails. Key injuries, illnesses, and tragedies have been grabbing headlines all week.

    The results on the field last week were just as polarizing. Four backup quarterbacks pulled off victories, highlighted by Mike White and the Jets toppling the AFC-leading Bengals, and Trevor Siemien coming on in relief to beat the defending champs.

    The Cardinals suffered a dramatic defeat to finally add a blemish to their record, but they held on as the Total Points Leaders.

    Power Rankings: Total Points per Game (with Super Bowl odds):

    1. Arizona Cardinals (+1000)
    2. Los Angeles Rams (+650)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650)
    4. Buffalo Bills  (+500)
    5. Dallas Cowboys  (+1000)

    FEATURED GAME – BRONCOS at COWBOYS

    Denver managed to stop a four-game skid but traded Von Miller at the deadline, leading to uncertainty about which direction their season is headed. Meanwhile, backup QB Cooper Rush pulled off an improbable win to send the Cowboys to 6-1, their best start since 2016.

    There is a significant contrast in the public perception of these two teams, and rightfully so based on the notes we highlighted in the intro. However, Denver (8th) ranks closer to Dallas (5th) in terms of Team Total Points than most would think.

    Dallas has a potent offense that’s eclipsed 20 points in all seven of its games, but Denver has allowed their opponents to reach that mark just twice.

    Denver’s already poor pass rush took a hit when they dealt Von Miller, so they’ll need to make up for it by limiting the Dallas rushing attack, something they’ve done well as the seventh-ranked run defense.

    The spread is set quite high at Dallas -10, and not very reflective of the advanced metrics. The public is heavily backing Dallas nonetheless; we’ll fade the public and side with Denver to cover.

    THE PICK:  BRONCOS +10


    Patrick Price Check: Where is Mahomes struggling this season?

    Is it time to press the panic button in Kansas City? Everyone was looking for the Chiefs to assert their dominance on Monday night, but the performance was hardly a confidence builder despite the winning result. With half the season left to play, FiveThirtyEight gives the two-time defending AFC champs a 51% chance to make the playoffs, and just a 2% chance to reclaim the Super Bowl title. This time last year those numbers were probably closer to 100% and 20%.

    It’s easy to place the blame on a defense that ranks 24th in Total Points, but we haven’t seen the same Patrick Mahomes that we’re used to seeing fill up the highlight reel. Instead we’ve seen him already match his career-high in turnovers (12).

    Mahomes ranks 7th in Passing Points Earned, just ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. That’s a solid ranking and even more solid company, but it’s not up the level of expectation he set after finishing 1st, 3rd, and 1st in his three seasons.

    The game-by-game Passing Points Earned totals begin to look more troubling.

    Mahomes has logged 52 career regular season games with 15+ pass attempts. His last four games have all ranked among the 10 worst in his career and none of his 2021 performances have cracked his top-10.

    Focusing in on Mahomes’ performance by throw depth gives us more insight into where he’s struggling.

    In his first three seasons, Mahomes ranked as the top overall QB in terms of Passing Points Earned and was excelling at all levels of the field.

    His status has regressed at all three levels this season, but most notably, his intermediate passing rank has slipped from 1st all the way to 20th.

    Mahomes had registered a 71% On-Target Throw Rate on intermediate passes from 2018-20 but has seen that rate come in at just 63% through his first eight games (24th-best), while delivering 0 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Mahomes has also been much less effective under duress this season despite experiencing the lowest pressure rate of his career.

    His 44% Positive Play Rate under pressure from 2018-20 ranked second, only narrowly behind Deshaun Watson. That rate has dipped to 35% this season, representing another category where Mahomes has regressed from elite to league average.

    Here are Mahomes’ rate stats under pressure during each year of his career (pulled from the SIS DataHub Pro).

    Sign up for a 7-day free trial of the SIS DataHub Pro

    The Chiefs were handed a break with the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game, but Mahomes will have his hands full with the Packers defense that ranks top-10 in both Pass Rush and Pass Coverage Points Saved.


    Boom Goes the Dynamite: Spotlight on big play receivers

    When discussing the top fantasy receivers, there’s obviously no more important figure than Fantasy Points.

    It’s useful (and fun) to understand how Fantasy Points were scored to see who’s primed for continued success and who may flame out.

    We’re going to look at the top four receivers who have been piling up big play opportunities, and how well they’ve been converting them.

    The three metrics we’ll focus on are:
    (1) Boom Rate: The percentage of targets that result in 1+ EPA (expected points added)
    (2) End Zone Team Share: The percentage of the team’s passes into the end zone that have been thrown to this player.
    (3) Deep Ball Team Share: The percentage of the team’s deep passes (15+ air yards) that have been thrown to this player.

    #1 Ja’Marr Chase

    Chase was the runaway top choice; he ranks 2nd in deep ball team share, and 3rd in both Boom Rate and end zone team share.

    The Bengals have several talented receivers, but it’s clear that the rookie is Joe Burrow’s favorite option. Chase has 12 deep ball receptions, which is more than all of his teammates combined.

    #2  Marquise Brown

    No receiver has had more total big play chances than Hollywood Brown. Brown ranks 1st in end zone team share and 7th in deep ball team share.

    However, Brown hasn’t been as effective hauling in these opportunities. Brown has dropped four deep balls, one of which was in the end zone. This has contributed to his pedestrian Boom Rate that ranks just 25th/100.

    Brown has zero drops otherwise, so there’s plenty of hope for future upside here.

    #3  Adam Thielen

    Everyone seems to forget about Thielen on fantasy draft day and when constructing DFS lineups, but no receiver has racked up more end zone targets than his 25 over the last two seasons.

    Justin Jefferson was also a candidate for this list, evidence that the Vikings offense is funneled through their two top receivers. Thielen has the slight edge in both end zone targets (5 to 4) and deep ball targets (17 to 16).

    Aside from these two superstars, the rest of the Vikings team has combined for just two end zone targets and 10 deep ball targets.

    #4  Cooper Kupp

    Based on Kupp’s fantasy point production, it’s almost surprising he’s not higher on this list. Kupp has 37 more PPR points than the second-best fantasy receiver, Tyreek Hill, and that margin represents the gap between Hill and the 8th-ranked receiver.

    Kupp’s 27 PPR points per game is the highest average ever by a receiver through the first eight weeks.

    If there’s one area holding Kupp back, it’s been that he’s sharing a big chunk of the Rams end zone targets with his teammates. Kupp and Robert Woods each have six, while Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee have four apiece.

    More from the SIS community
    • Weekly Total Points Statpack: Sign up to receive updated Total Points metrics delivered to your inbox weekly. Get a free, in-depth look at team strengths and weaknesses, and the top players at each position.
    • SIS Weekly Football Projections: SIS has launched weekly NFL and College Football projections on our website. You can get projections broken down by category for all fantasy-relevant players, and they’re also a great resource for prop betting.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 8 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 9.
    • Sharp Football: Check out our three prop bet recommendations for this Sunday’s games!
  • What to make of Seiya Suzuki? Something more than Tsutsugo

    What to make of Seiya Suzuki? Something more than Tsutsugo

    By TED BAARDA

    Reports have surfaced recently that NPB’s Hiroshima Carp will be posting their star right fielder, Seiya Suzuki, in the coming offseason. Suzuki is coming off a monster season with the Carp, as he led Japan’s Central League in all three triple-slash categories with a batting line of .317/.433/.639, and set a career high with 38 home runs.

    Predicting how that success will translate to MLB performance can be tricky, however. Adjusting for the quality of competition faced is one aspect, but there are also the challenges of moving to a new country and culture, as well as adapting to a new role on a new team that can have an effect on the player’s performance. There is also an argument that certain skill sets are more transferable than others when players move to MLB.

    In order to get a ballpark idea of what to expect from Seiya Suzuki, I am going to compare his last two seasons in NPB to another recent corner outfielder from the same league, Yoshi Tsutsugo. I chose Tsutsugo because he plays a similar position, was close to the same age when posted, and made the transition recently.

    Tsutsugo was known as a power hitter in Japan, and particularly a home run hitter. He had some swing-and-miss in his game, but made up for it by hitting the ball hard when he did make contact and drawing walks as pitchers worked around his power. Here are his numbers from his last two years in Japan, and his combined line in MLB:

     

    Season League AVG OBP SLG K% BB%
    2018 NPB .295 .393 .596 18% 14%
    2019 NPB .272 .388 .511 25% 16%
    2020-2021 MLB .209 .309 .388 27% 12%

     

    Tsutsugo had a down year in 2019 before he came to MLB, with a .85-point drop in slugging percentage and an increase of 7 percentage points to his strikeout rate. Facing MLB pitching, his numbers further dipped, showing how good MLB pitchers are.

    Tsutsugo struggled to catch up to fastballs at the beginning of his MLB career, which makes sense since far fewer pitchers in NPB routinely throw 95 MPH or higher. However, he did finish his 2021 season off strong with the Pirates, hitting .268/.347/.535 in 144 plate appearances over 43 games. With Pittsburgh, he was also able to get more regular playing time than he did with the contending Rays and Dodgers.

     

    For comparison, here are Seiya Suzuki’s numbers over his last two seasons in NPB:

     

    Season League AVG OBP SLG K% BB%
    2020 NPB .300 .409 .544 14% 14%
    2021 NPB .317 .433 .639 17% 16%

    The high batting averages for Suzuki are no fluke, as this is his sixth consecutive season with an average over .300. He has a fairly flat bat path which produces lots of line drives when he squares up the ball, allowing for higher averages than the fly ball approach of Tsutsugo.

    Suzuki’s athleticism, a key differentiator between him and Tsutsugo, shows in his batting stance. 

    He incorporates a leg kick, lifting his front leg as the pitcher delivers home and balancing with one foot in the air for a second before stepping into his swing and driving his bat towards the ball. He has a selective approach at the plate, taking pitches until he gets the one he wants. 

    With two strikes he loses the leg kick to sacrifice a little power in order to make contact and keep at bats alive.

    Suzuki is coming off a career year in the power department, smashing his previous high of 30 HR with his 38 this season. This also led to a career best slugging percentage of .639, his third season slugging .600 or higher. For comparison’s sake, Tsutsugo only had one season over .600, with a .680 SLG in 2016.

    Offensively, Suzuki has a clear edge over Tsutsugo before coming over to MLB. His career marks in all three triple slash stats beat Tsutsugo’s handily and, if he is posted this off-season, Suzuki will also be coming off a much better platform year than Tsutsugo.

    In other areas of their games, Suzuki also tends to outshine Tsutsugo. Defensively Tsutsugo is more or less a liability. He played a lot of left field in Japan due to the Central League not utilizing a DH, and per DRS he was a negative fielder in both 2018 and 2019:

     

    Season Position Innings DRS
    2018 LF 1105 -9
    2019 LF 840 -6
    2019 3B 230 -8

     

    Tsutsugo does not have a large enough sample at any position in MLB to make any conclusive judgements from, but he does have 180 innings of +2 DRS fielding in left in MLB, along with -2 in 89 innings at third. He also has played some first base and right field in MLB, scoring below average at both positions.

    One thing that stands out is that Tsutsugo struggled mightily in both 2018 and 2019 in left field with deep balls. This may not be entirely his fault however, as NPB teams will play their outfielders much shallower than MLB teams at times, giving up the deep ball in the hopes of taking away some singles in front of outfielders.

    Since balls over a fielder’s head are worth more runs than the shallow hits, this positioning can adversely affect an outfielder’s DRS, and might explain why DRS is more of a fan of his work in MLB than in NPB.

    For comparison, here is Seiya Suzuki’s Defensive Runs Saved over his last two seasons:

    Season Position Innings DRS
    2020 RF 1015 6
    2021 RF 1037 2

     

    Suzuki’s big skill on defense is his arm, and most of his value in the outfield comes from throwing out runners, or preventing them from advancing. He came up as a pitcher and infielder, so his outfield defense was a work in progress earlier in his career, though he has improved at tracking balls down. For the same reason that Tsutsugo’s defense grades out better in MLB, there is a possibility that Suzuki’s defense could play better in MLB as well.

    Playing in right field, where the throw to third base is longer and therefore more challenging, Suzuki has kept runners from advancing extra bases at roughly the same rate that Tsutsugo did from left field, even though Tsutsugo had the advantage of a much shorter throw to third.

    Suzuki also has 12 unaided assists in the last two seasons (assists where the outfielder directly throws out a runner), compared to Tsutsugo’s five over his last two seasons in NPB.

    In terms of baserunning, while Suzuki is more athletic than Tsutsugo, he doesn’t necessarily have as refined baserunning instincts. For their NPB careers, Suzuki is 82-for-134 stealing bases (61% success rate), while Tsutsugo was 5-for-9. I expect Suzuki to be given less free reign to attempt stolen bases in MLB, though his good speed will still be a benefit on the basepaths allowing him to take extra bases on balls in play.

    Two years ago Yoshi Tsutsugo was an intriguing player, and after his run in Pittsburgh to end the 2021 season he still is. However, Seiya Suzuki looks to have a higher chance to be an impact talent and can impact a game in multiple ways. We could see that on display as soon as Opening Day.